The Mariners' second near-miss of the playoffs in the past two years prompted significant leadership changes before the season drew to a close. Manager Scott Servais was shown the door shortly before the completion of his ninth year on the job and replaced not an interim basis but by the full-time appointment of former M's catcher Dan Wilson as the club's new skipper. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander remain in place and will be under even more pressure to field a playoff club next year.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Julio Rodriguez, OF: $180MM through 2034 (contract could climb as high as $450MM through 2039 based on series of options/escalators)
- Luis Castillo, RHP: $68.25MM through 2027 (contract contains 2028 vesting option)
- J.P. Crawford, SS: $21MM through 2026
- Mitch Garver, C/DH: $12.5MM through 2025 (includes buyout of 2026 club option)
- Victor Robles, OF: $8.5MM through 2026 (includes buyout of 2027 club option)
- Dylan Moore, INF/OF: $3.825MMM through 2025
- Andres Munoz, RHP: $2.5MM through 2025 (contract contains club options for 2026-28 seasons)
Option Decisions
- Mitch Haniger, OF: $15.5MM player option
- Jorge Polanco, 2B: $12MM club option with $750K buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Austin Voth (5.115): $2.2MM
- JT Chargois (5.101): $1.7MM
- Luis Urias (5.014): $5MM
- Trent Thornton (4.148): $2.1MM
- Randy Arozarena (4.129): $11.7MM
- Josh Rojas (4.126): $4.3MM
- Sam Haggerty (4.036): $900K
- Logan Gilbert (3.144): $8.1MM
- Tayler Saucedo (3.112): $1MM
- Cal Raleigh (3.085): $5.6MM
- Gabe Speier (2.172): $900K
- George Kirby (2.151): $5.5MM
- Non-tender candidates: Voth, Chargois, Urias, Haggerty, Speier
Free Agents
The Mariners' 2022 return to postseason baseball after a 20-year drought raised expectations in Seattle. Those expectations have not been reached in two subsequent seasons. The Mariners have played winning ball in each of the past two seasons but have failed to secure even a Wild Card berth. This year's loss is particularly painful for the organization, as Seattle held a dominant 10-game lead on the division in early June but had squandered it by the following month. A resurgent Astros club stormed to yet another AL West crown. There's no indication that front office changes are nigh -- team chairman John Stanton already said Dipoto would remain at his post -- but baseball operations turnover often follows coaching changes if the results don't quickly improve.
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I’m sure Castillo would need something to waive his no trade clause like guaranteeing the 2028 option. That would likely remove any positive value left on his contract, I think they could get something for him if they traded him with just the 2025-2027 guarantee but the extra year would likely project underwater and negate that. If they ate some of it though would have decent trade value. If not they could probably move him but not for much. I could see them doing that but unless they added another starter would likely make them weaker even if they used the savings to add someone.
I don’t expect anything flashy. I think they probably hang on to most of the top prospects and unless they can get really creative they won’t dump a significant amount of Haniger or Garver’s contracts and/or move Castillo.
If they really are going for a Rays style roster construction plan I think it’s an eventuality we see core players get moved for younger and cheaper major league ready talent. How long does Raleigh or Gilbert or anyone else really have? If they can turn them into multiple cheap young players I’m wondering if that eventually happens.
Well, if you can’t resign these guys to long term team friendly deals like the Braves, then you have to trade them for young controllable pieces like the Rays. You can’t let them walk for nothing, like the Seattle Mariners. George Kirby is the sell high candidate. He is not resigning in Seattle. He wants to be a Yankee.
Really? He told you that? I see,
IF George really WANTS to be a Yankee?? Trade him now to the BSox for Casas and ???
Kirby grew up a fan of the New York Yankees in Westchester County, New York. He attended Rye High School in Rye, where he played both baseball and basketball. He didn’t tell me, but he has said in interviews that he would like to play for his home team. The main point that I am making is that the Mariners need to lock these guys up or start preparing to fleece another team in a trade. Letting them become a FA and then hoping to resign them will be a mistake.
I wouldn’t want Casas for Kirby’s gym shorts. He isn’t good and plays a position that is easy to fill. The next short stop should be on the menu.
Letting them become a FA and then hoping to resign them will be a mistake.
======================
He has four years of control left. Wouldn’t it be smarter to get three years of production out of him? I mean, 95% of the league probably grew up rooting for a team that they don’t play for.
Almost every American ballplayer grew up a fan of their hometown team and probably 98% of those players never suit up for said team. Kirby has plenty of control and the Mariners have shown they’re close for each of the past 4 seasons. They don’t need to go backward, they need to go forward. And when the time comes, just QO him. He’ll get paid enough to make it worthwhile.
It would be smart to trade at his highest/peak value. That might be with more than a year of team control, it might not be if he gets injured or his performance slips. I know not everyone gets the chance to play for their home team. That is sort of my point. He has indicated that it would be meaningful for him, and to my knowledge has not indicated that it would be meaningful for him to play in Seattle his entire career. I really wasn’t trying to get into specific players. I was talking about having a strategy. Sign players that you want to invest in early, like the Braves, or get ready to trade them at peak value, like the Rays. Being emotionally attached to your favorite player is a large market luxury.
You are also making my point. Thanks for that. Let him walk with a QO and draft compensation. I don’t care. That strategy has worked out so far for Seattle. Hence, all the rings.
myaccount2;
So they have young Mr. Kirby for 4 more years. Swell.
I came on this afternoon and looked the most recent article: A young Reds pitcher I never heard of had TJ surgery.
I’m not being sarcastic in stating that discussing what any professional baseball pitcher is going to do over the next 4 years simply can’t be done. If you can find a study of the percentage of professional pitchers that actually pitched 4 full, contiguous seasons at any level as a starter (say 140 innings) or reliver (say 55 innings), would you please post it. Am not even factoring in what their stats were (good or bad). Again, just interested in the percentage of pitchers that did their jobs for 4 years straight.
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I’m sort of with the Rays here. If a franchise can develop a young (cheap) major league pitcher and get 2 good years out of him, trade him for multiple prospects to develop. Each day you keep them is a day closer to some sort of injury that will leave you with a non-performing asset that you can’t move (as well as a salary that goes up each year). The odds are overwhelmingly in a FO’s favor that takes that approach.
It really isn’t about controllable years for me, either. Moving them at peak value (Rays) should be the goal, if you can’t sign them to long term team friendly deals (Braves). To your point, an injured pitcher with controllable years isn’t much of an asset.
Okay, just because you can’t forecast how they’ll perform 4 years from now (or if they’ll stay healthy) doesn’t mean you automaticallt trade them. You can’t guarantee Ohtani’s health either. Burnes may stink, so do you not give him a $200M contract. How about Snell. Heck, Ohtani may be an absolute albatross 3 years from now if he suffers multiple injuries. Should teams stay away from all these players and Ohtani traded?
Contractual control matters to front offices for a reason. You keep your cheap talent and try to win with them. You could guarantee me that Kirby misses 18 months with TJ and I would still advocate for the M’s adding talent instead of trading it.
The Rays have two World Series and zero wins. I don’t understand why they’re this measuring stick everyone points to. I’d rather be the Astros than the Rays. Balance.
Or instead of Rays and Braves, we could point to the most successful team of the last decade (Astros) and see that balance is better than extremes.
First off, pretty much everything is wrong with the statement “That strategy has worked out so far for Seattle. Hence, all the rings.”
1) The Mariners haven’t really utilized this strategy under the current regime.
2) It would be inaccurate to suggest that this strategy cannot work without considering all the other factors associated with anyway.
3) The ring argument is pointless. Regimes change all the time. This current regime is actually able to draft and develop. Clearly. Previous Mariners regimes were not. You can’t say that something that didn’t work for Bavasi or Jack Z won’t work for Dipoto just because they’re associated with the same organization.
So no, I’m not making your point.
myaccount2;
LOL
Ohtani Is an injured pitcher.
A good chance he wins the NL’s MVP this year.
MLB baseball has changed.
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If Dipoto and his staff were really so good at finding and developing pitching, of course they’d trade a starter in a package for a few position players that can hit.
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My long comment was simple….
Pitchers are getting injured as never before. To talk about the Mariners starters like they’re all going to be around and pitching consistently for 3-4 more years is unrealistic.
Jerry does the A’s thing as opposed to the Rays thing: He wants to fit a bunch of guys together into their 6 years of control window. A major injury here, a bad year there, and
he has to do yet another tear-it-down / build-it-back-up exercise.
Think the owners will sit through yet another one?
A terrible GM / PoPO…….whatever.
100% you are right. The Yankees would be the team to model, though. They have 30 + years in a row of winning baseball. The Mariners’ ownership are not going to practice the Yankees or Astros’ theory of balancing your young talent with top FA signings. They will not balance the roster with top FA, even their own. If ownership were willing to pony up to “balance” out the roster, then we wouldn’t be talking about it. They won’t do that. So then, how do you build a competitive roster with those self-imposed salary limitations? I would start by looking at clubs that seem to build competitive rosters every season, then try to do that. It isn’t either add talent or subtract talent. It is maximizing talent on the field and in the market to build the best roster that you can and try to win a chip. Having the best pitching staff in MLB didn’t even win a division or get a wild card spot, so the balance you are looking for isn’t happening that way either. Maybe trading from strength to sure up your offense could balance out the roster.
I wasn’t talking about Ohtani as a pitcher. I was talking about him as a player. We’ve seen plenty of MVPs at the peak of their prime drop off faster in baseball. It’s the sports with the most randomness in outcome.
No, you don’t just trade guys because you’re good at one specific aspect that goes into roster building. That’s how you end up like the A’s.
So what you’re saying is your comment was useless? Because nobody is disputing that this could occur. Injuries, effectiveness, and success all change. There’s a reason the Rays are the only team that operates like the Rays. Budget. They absolutely would not be trading guys with 4 years of control left if they didn’t run an $88M payroll.
That’s not an A’s thing. Incredibly silly statement.
But trading a 2-3 WAR pitcher for a 2-3 WAR hitter doesn’t make the Mariners better, it just makes them different. The only way I would advocate doing so is if we can then sign an effective 5. I’m not sure why people are so opposed to the idea of trading from the farm to improve. It’s the likeliest way to get better. Keep the staff intact and use some highly regarded prospects to acquire a bat or bats, depending on level of impact. The M’s have already built a competitive roster. For whatever reason, ownership doesn’t want to toss a little bit more at improving the odds and I’m not sure why.
I’d like to add, though, that the Astros don’t typically shop at the top of the market; the contract they handed out to Hader was atypical. If I’m not mistaken, the Mariners have handed out larger FA contracts than Houston has. If I’m recalling correctly they’ve never given out a 9 figure deal to a FA. And I think Altuve stands as the largest they’ve ever done.
The Astros had 6 players making over $15 million AAV this season. The Mariners had two. Houston payroll was third highest in MLB this season at $255,271,371. Mariners were 16th at $148,318,884. They might have been able to squeeze two wins out of $100 million in payroll! They were closer to Oakland’s $63 million payroll than they were to Houston’s $255 million.
I’m talking solely for free agent signings. Most of those guys were internal extension/re-signings (Altuve, Bregman, Framber, JV, etc.) that were able to be made because of the money generated from 9 straight playoff appearances and multiple World Series titles. The Astros weren’t running top 10 payrolls with regularity before this 9 year window. The M’s have signed guys to larger outright FA contracts and have always ran a payroll from 10-20 for the most part, depending on the year.
Also, not that this makes a significant difference but Spotrac is notoriously off on both MLB and NFL tallies. Roster Resource has HOU at $244M. I lean toward believing them just because of figures I’ve seen personally confirmed by leagues that Spotrac was incorrect about (i.e. having Davante Adams’ cap hits for 2025 and 2026 off by $8M each year).
Sure. All the reported salaries (and everything on the internet) are subject to fact-checking! The larger point is that if the Mariners are willing to open up the check book and resign their own players, then that would be super awesome, and we wouldn’t be talking about it. I don’t see that being the case. They will never be third in revenue (whether that is 255 or 244) to resign the players that they have developed. So then, how do you maximize their value?? Play them through their walk year and hope for the best? Trade them as rentals with six months of team control? Trade them at peak value for the highest return? If they had any intention of spending what it is going to cost to hold their core together, this would all be a lot easier.
“…But trading a 2-3 WAR pitcher for a 2-3 WAR hitter doesn’t make the Mariners better, it just makes them different…”
Isn’t this exactly what the Mariners need?
A 2-3 WAR batter? Yes. But if you trade away a 2-3 WAR position player for a 2-3 WAR SP, you are adding zero wins.
I’ve been saying the same thing for nearly three years and it’s a big reason why I feel this could be the last year of Raleigh and Gilbert.
But they may not have committed to a new course yet. Perhaps 2025 will dictate the direction they go.
Frankly, I’m not confident they can develop hitters, so I would hope that anyone they might acquire is MLB-ready (whenever/if the time comes).
You have definitely been beating that drum. I worry if they really go for that approach it ends up with more mediocre than quality mlb ready talent. A mediocre MLB ready team is a real possibility. I really would just like to see them use the 3 year window before Raleigh and Gilbert leave to just go for it and do what it takes to build the best team they can. If in a couple years down the line it’s not working, reboot. They really do need to figure out why they struggle so badly with hitting. The batters eye seems like an obvious issue to address.
Rays traded Randy. So not their style to trade for him. They could trade him. If they get anywhere remotely close to what they paid for him JD should get another extension.
Willy Boom Boom!
Mets will need to fill innings big time- Take Marte for a year and you can probably get a good prospect as well
Phils with Castellanos (2 yrs left) can probably net an even better prospect as well as the decent offensive boast
I think they’ll be able to maneuver, take Chris Taylors last year (full circle moment) and you can def get Outman+ more prospect capital from Lad. They’ll find something that works
How many of those high-payroll clubs have you seen trade top prospects to move salary?
I think it’s more likely for the Mariners to be the ones attaching prospects to move salary than taking salary on for prospects.
Right? I don’t expect that either, but it definitely seems more likely.
Seems like there’s enough on the major league team that adding to it should be the goal rather than trading good major leaguers with several more years of control to collect even more prospects that the organization has plenty of. Why not use some of those prospects to target good players from larger market teams that have poor farm systems and ask them to pay the freight on the contract? That keeps you within whatever budget restrictions you have.
Which large-market teams have good players available for prospects?
Cubs maybe? Blue Jays? I think we also draw too many rigid boxes around teams sometimes. Maybe there are competitive teams with enough financial security that would be willing to give the farm system a boost using money. Maybe they have an internal replacement at a position and could make the more established player available in the right trade.
I’m a Toronto fan and they are declaring that they intend to contend, but they have sold while in that position before. The Teo trade to your Mariners as an example. Their farm system is not good and they have preached sustainability. They may as well have been the front office to make the 54% comment. It’s recently been reported that they actively shopped Bichette last offseason. You’d have to believe he’s healthy and ready for a bounce back, but I think he’d fit that park as he’s more of a hard sprayed line drive hitter than a fly ball guy. But if the Jays paid his $17.5m salary and you paid that value in prospects, there’s also the upside that he’d be QO eligible and could recoup a decent prospect. It sounds like these two teams couldn’t come together on Guerrero and certainly there’s less value in Guerrero now so it would look like a misstep for Toronto if they made it this offseason, but maybe Toronto still wanted the chance to come together on an extension. If that looks unlikely as the offseason goes on and they aren’t able to add meaningfully in other moves this offseason, their calculus on contention and holding him could change. He’s projected for $30m in arbitration. If they move Vlad, I see no reason why they would do anything other than retain the salary to get premium returns.
Or you could just use those prospects to get good players with multiple arb years left from the smaller-mid market teams. It doesn’t feel to me like the Mariners need to be trading away core pieces of the team to add more to the farm system.
The Mariners aren’t going to give up their elite prospects for a single year of control, regardless of the financial commitment. Seattle’s a team that typically targets players with control, or players that haven’t been highly regarded, but showed promise in the upper-minors (think Toro, Bliss and Canzone).
The Cubs do have some players that they may be willing to move, but they have an excellent farm. It seems more likely they’d want MLB players (pitchers) in a return.
There’s no rule that you can’t make multiple moves in an offseason. If the Cubs wanted pitching, they don’t have to get it in any one particular move. Maybe they move some prospects for pitching in one move, and then want to make way to graduate a prospect or two onto the major league team and could move a good major leaguer off the roster to create more flexibility and would like to replenish the system after trading and graduating the other prospects. You can be more than just a simple buyer or seller in the market.
In terms of not trading premium prospects for one year of control, you might not have to trade premium prospects. Seattle has plenty of good prospects beyond the very top of their system that would be valued by other teams. And whatever value you surrender is the value you receive. There comes a point where you’d like that to be condensed into more immediate impact. Wouldn’t you want a 6 win player for a year instead of a 2 win player for three years if you are giving up your better prospects? When you are trying to leverage a roster full of prime aged talent and you have a budget limitation and can afford to trade good prospects and still have an excellent farm system, I think you should be open to the Corbin Burnes trade over the Trevor Rogers one once in a while. You don’t only have to do one type of thing.
I don’t know. Maybe the grass is always greener on the other side, but that roster is full of guys in their prime. I wouldn’t weaken the major league team just to try to turn some depth in your area of strength to address a need. You have more value in prospects than you were probably forecasting to have, maybe trading some of that gets you to 59% this year while still being able to project 54% in subsequent years.
Don’t you think the Blue Jays would be selling low on Bichette if they took anything less than elite prospects in return? Maybe that’s why he wasn’t moved at this year’s deadline. He wasn’t a 6-win player this season, but a first-half rebound next year could do wonders for his value. But maybe they’ll try to extend him while his value is down a bit.
The Cubs likely have the freedom to do just about whatever they want. I wish Seattle had that kind of budget. I just think they’re more likely to put their depth to more efficient use.
Seattle should consider moving prospects to address needs. But they still seem to think they can develop hitters, because they’ve been reluctant to move any of their many infield prospects.
We’ll see if that changes this offseason.
Bichette’s a tough sell and the deadline presents an opportunity for a better return. But even if he had a similar season to the previous one, I don’t think he’d have been worth elite prospects. I guess that depends on your definition of elite. I consider that the top tier of the prospect lists (60 for most of them right now). I think he’d be worth a tier below that and some secondary pieces. Now? Less than that, but if a team believed in a bounce back, they might still convince the Jays to just take what’s on offer rather than play it out until the deadline. Depends if there are multiple teams that believe in him more than the Jays do.
I understand why teams like the Rays, Brewers, and Guardians do what they do. It doesn’t feel like Seattle should be there right now. The revenue uncertainty is a factor but they can add still and it’s a roster worth adding to.
It’s baffling to me how everytime they bring in a bat to help the offense, that player craters in Seattle.
Teoscar (not crater but not as good as before or after), Winker, Garver. . . Every second baseman known to man.
If any of the bats DiPoto brings in actually hit this team will be lethal
Like Robles, Arozarena, Turner, and Raley?
They absolutely have had issues with hitters, but I’m not sure how much of that has been the park and how much has been the players.
I would hope they’re working on profiles and adjust the fences this offseason, but I’m not expecting that.
Look at player spits @home over the last few years. One year a player hits good, then next-not so good. Even France had a real good split at home afew years back.
Robles was a revelation.
Arozarena’s OPS with Seattle was 50 below has career average.
Turner was better with Seattle than Torinto, but still his lowest OPS since 2013.
Raley’s OPS was 41 pts below last year’s numbers in Tampa.
None of them were bad, but besides Robles, the other 3 all hit below expected.
The point is that they didn’t ‘crater’.
I’d also argue that Raley was better than expected once he was trusted with a regular role against RHPs. He had an OPS of .895 in the second half.
And as you noted, the aging Turner actually improved in Seattle after a slow start with Toronto. They got what they expected from him. Arozarena wasn’t the beast they had hoped for, but he was still solid for Seattle and a clear upgrade over Canzone.
Seattle isn’t a great place to hit. The park needs changes and they still need 4-5 more hitters. But one of the few positives last season were the in-season acquisitions.
It seems a bit like you’re cherry picking when you say “Arozarena’s OPS with Seattle was 50 below his career average.” How many points lower was it in TB this season? 70. He performed better offensively in Seattle than Tampa in 2024. One team certainly has more of a hitters park, too, and it’s not Seattle.
Also, Turner is 40. Of course his numbers are going down.
Raley’s OPS was down but his OPS+ was up. He actually did better in that area this season.
I acknowledge your point.
My original assessment was overly strict.
All I am saying is that DiPoto has tried to fix the offense year after year, and for some reason the players he brings in rarely have the expected results.
No doubt. Dipoto has tried to go cheap so many times and missed with the vast majority of those attempts.
What’s a little discouraging is that the list of needs is arguably larger this offseason.
Well, discouraging for Mariner fans. Encouraging for Astro fans!
I like the top 8-10 players on the Astros roster but 11-26 I think I would take the Mariners
Seattle needs to overhaul their infield and bullpen. They’ll bank on health and rebounds from Crawford, Brash and Santos, but even if they hit on all three, there’s a lot of work to do with limited resources.
Eugenio Suarez can be added to that list.
Geno had a bounce back 2022 but was bad in 2023
The DH market looks pretty good this year, they could easily add some platoon bats like Pederson that would have an immediate impact… assuming ownership really is willing to moderately increase payroll.
I remember hearing on a podcast that right handed pitchers stats always have an increase by percentage points while pitching in Seattle due to the way the batters eye plays. This has apparently been a trend for years. I guess a significant amount of AB’s there would hinder hitters production if that is the case.
WHY would Cal and George project to get 5.5m(ish), When Logan got alittle over 4m in his 1st year of arb????
Inflation.
inflation, counting stats, home runs
How about Castillo and Garver for Yoshida? Mariners need lefty bats and have a long history with Japanese players. Castillo is good but not performing up to his contract Red Sox could use a top of the rotation arm. Mariners save a lot of money they can perhaps spend elsewhere.
not even 10000 yoshidas are worth a Castillo
Who else are you trading then? Mariners fans are silly the team is average yet they never think making a trade makes any sense.
lefty bats don’t play well in Seattle. Plus Castillo is not for free. There needs to be overwhelming value reasons for Seattle to engage. Plus getting Castillo to waive NT clause, isn’t free either.
Seattle needs to improve their offense and Castillo makes a lot of money that’s their motivation. And why wouldn’t he wave his NTC? Because Seattle is a great place to play nobody ever wants to leave?
What’s your idea champ?
Yoshida isn’t worth anywhere near his contract. Castillo could be dumped for no return anyway . Garver doesn’t make up for that
Who is taking Castillo and that huge contract? Nobody is without a bad contract going back the other way.
There are lots of pitching hungry teams and Castillo would be the ace on a lot of them
Nonsense. Castillo has underperformed since signing that contract. Seattle is a great place to pitch but his numbers are pedestrian.
Balt. cou.d use him, they’re probably not bidding high enough to bring back Burnes.
This season Seattle posted a team wRC+ of 104, including a league-best wRC+ of 118 after August 15.
Like most clubs, the Mariners would like to improve their run production.
M’s fans don’t want to trade a SP for the same reason as last year. Trading away a 2-3 WAR pitcher for a 2-3 WAR bat makes the team different, not better. The M’s need to be trading from the prospect pool, not subtracting good players from the big league roster. You don’t get better by trading your best players.
Castillo is maybe their 4th best starter. And if you trade Garver and Castillo for Yoshida like I suggested you have more money to spend on other needs.
Blackpink in the area
Who else are you trading then?
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I agree, in principle. I think the RS might have to throw in a non-premium prospect to even out the cash (or cash itself).
But the Mariners definitely need to trade Castillo. He and Garver combine for $37M, and Castillo, while good, is only their #5 pitcher.
Red Sox need to trade a lefty hitting outfielder and could use a starter with big upside like Castillo.
In theory, totally agree, but I think some may be seeing Castillo as regressing. If the Ms talent assessment is strong, they could target a bat who they see as higher potential. For the team trading for Castillo, if they need a sp badly enough, they might take the chance even if his best days may be behind him.
I think they can do better than Yoshida though. The trading team would only be taking on 3/$65M for castillo, not bad for his caliber. I don’t see why they can’t get a prospect if they want to go that route instead of “win now.”
I don’t really see why the Red Sox would do that.
I’m not opposed to moving Castillo if it saves enough money to bring in a middle of the order bat, I’m just not sure there’s a logical move available without eating some salary or guaranteeing his option.
The Red Sox would also have to take Garver. And Castillo makes more like 75 million over the next 3 years. I don’t think anyone is taking Castillos entire contract the way it is now.
The Red Sox would do it because they want out of Yoshidas contract and need rotation help. Yoshida is a decent player but he’s overpaid and not a good fit on the Red Sox.
I don’t think anyone is taking it on either. It’s not a terrible contract by any means, but it’s a lot for a middle of the rotation arm. I guess I would need to see the financials, but on the face, it seems like this would be a tough deal to swing for either team because there are so many question marks. But I could be wrong.
Kinda like Yoshida it’s not terrible just too much money. I like the fit for both teams.
I’m not as strongly opposed to Yoshida as most either. M’s need a DH. That’s pretty much his only fit with us.
could use a starter with big upside like Castillo.
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But how big is his upside? His ERA+ last year was only 101. I like him well enough, but at $24M, he has no excess value.
His upside is what he did in his previous years. What he did to get awarded that giant contract. He’s overpaid for sure. So is Yoshida.
He resigned with Seattle at his peak value.
His upside is what he did in his previous years.
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That’s not how it works. The recent years carry more weight than the earlier years,
That’s definitely how it works. That’s why it’s considered upside instead of what you should expect him to do.
Well in actual money hes owed 3/$72m… i just figured most teams look at the luxury tax amount. Hes still a number two on many teams, and in 2022-23 was a borderline ace on some. It will come down to a team judging him either to be on the downside or if they can get him back to that form.
If you had 24 million a year to spend on a pitcher this offseason would you want Castillo? I don’t think you would. Just like Yoshida he’s not a bad player but he’s overpaid.
At 31? Maybe… manaea will likely get that much at a couple of years older and a lesser track record. If it were my team, prob not… but i could see it
They’ll do not much this off-season. Ha-Seong Kim instead of Polanco maybe.
The two Mitches are untradable, and if you have to pay Garver anyway, he’s a decent backup catcher.
They’re not going to spend their profits to get a winning team. The only thing they might consider would be moving the fences in again, but only if they really believe their rotation is that much better than everyone else’s. Home/road splits prove otherwise.
That said, if Brash and Santos come back strong, the bullpen is fine. Love to see them bid on LHR Tanner Scott to take closing pressure off of Munoz.
If they believe Locklear is really ready, look for him at 1st with Raley. Rojas, Crawford, and Kim round out the infield. Arozarena, Rodriguez, and Robles in the OF with Raley and [gasp] Haniger. Moore sticks around. Bench of Garver, Bliss, and someone who rocks it in Arizona. That’s 13 hitters.
They moved an injured Ray, Gonzales, While, and Suárez after a down-season, just a year ago.
Of course they can move the Mitches.
Kim is going to get a job as a shortstop and he’ll likely command more than Seattle would be willing to pay, anyway.
If Seattle makes a splash, it seems more likely to be on a DH, or via trade.
Nothing we’ve seen suggests they’re likely going to lean on Locklear or Bliss and I certainly hope they don’t. Not yet, anyway.
But what kelenic or bad contract are they taking back in order to dump?
I would look at the teams known to have limited budgets and might want to shed a player with 2+ years of control.
I don’t think Seattle can move those contracts without picking up future salary, unless they’re willing to move a starting pitcher. (and I don’t think they’ll likely move a SP).
Autocorrect got me in the previous comment.
Benditendi-3/45mish. Came alive towards 3nd of season. Hani-15m + garver11m+.
Would you dump pitches for benintendi?
Hey, just spit ballin
Do you think if the Mariners were going to sign Gilbert and Kirby long term they would already have done it ? Do you think now is the time to trade Raleigh with his value being high and go with the prospect Harry behind the dish? I am troubled by the amount of HR’s our starting rotation allows. Is this just something to put up with because of the style of pitching we have (lots of fastballs, always around the plate) ?? Or is the gopher ball something that can be worked on so that actually less of them can be thrown?
My guess is Harry Ford is at least a year and more likely two out before he can replace Raleigh assuming he does. It seems like they are probably coaching the starters to avoid walks at the expense of more homers and probably less strikeouts, and may be due to the pitchers repertoire as anything else. I don’t know that but seems like they really are more focused on avoiding walks than avoiding home runs with the starters.
The flaw with the pitching that might have been a bigger problem was their ability to hold runners. But that’s something I expect them to address more easily.
You don’t think Ford debuts in 2025? Personally, I would be surprised but maybe you’re right.
He may debut in 2025 but I can’t imagine he’ll be replacing Raleigh until at least 2026 if not later. It’s not impossible he forced things in 2025 but nothing so far indicates he’d get more than a cup of coffee.
That I definitely agree with. It’s also always a question mark how any prospect performs immediately. Everyone expected Holliday to be a beast immediately while everyone expected Merrill would need an adjustment period. Ford may be totally unplayable at first. Honestly, I would consider trading him in a package for a bat.
I’m sure they’ve been trying since both players debuted and I’m sure they’ll keep trying.
If it were my call, I’d keep Raleigh and Gilbert at least two more years, but so much depends on the overall status of the team. I’d keep Ford as well, because he’s still young, catchers take longer to develop, extra minor-league seasoning isn’t going to hurt, and I don’t think his stock is very high.
I’m not worried at all about the rotation. No team offered more quality starts and they were first or second in IP (and strikeout), if I’m not mistaken.
They have to improve their road splits though, they were pretty noticeable last year. Maybe that’s a one-off and not a trend.
The splits were more drastic in the first half.
The bullpen was a much bigger concern (and still is).
Yes. If they were going to extend them, they should have done it already. Gilbert and Kirby are getting more expensive by the start.
Signing Kyle Farmer and Brandon Drury this offseason, those are the guys that will surely set Mariners fans hearts afire. Or something on fire, anyways
Id like drury he could be a good man at 2nd
Mariners need to find a direction because they haven’t ever since we got out of the playoffs
If we will spend like the rays, hire smart people and trade, if we will spend like the rangers, go sign people
Being in between gets you a .500 record every year
They definitely changed course. I’m not sure they even know what direction is best.
I’m not sure this offseason will be more telling, either.
But here’s to hope!
The Dodgers have used both those team building strategies the last several years. I wouldn’t call them in between per se, since they spend big and have some very bright minds, but they definitely use both those strategies quite successfully.
If they leave the rotation intact then they will always have a shot, although they got lucky this year that they all remained healthy. Woo could be their true ace next year. If Brash comes back their bullpen could be quite formidable. But you still have to be able to hit to turn all those quality starts into wins.
I hope they give Edgar Martinez whatever it takes to get him to stay on full time. Hopefully they make some changes in the analytics department as well. Simplifying the approach seemed to be a lot more effective, albeit in a small sample size. I don’t think the Mitch’s contracts are moveable and free agency seems like the best way to make the lineup adjustments they need, but that’s not Dipoto’s M.O. And T-Mobile Park has such a bad reputation for hitters that they will have to overpay in order to land any proven sluggers.
All in all, unfortunately, I expect another off-season of minimal upgrades, bandaids and a slight payroll increase. Not championship caliber roster building.
Bad year, bad coincidences. Next season will be get better. New coaches and solid offensive returns appeared as the season waned to close. A continuation means a righted ship, and those putrid hitters may bounce back, at a minimum to their career averages, would produce enough offense easily to win a wild card spot.
Agree
How do you guys evaluate the Servais firing, switch to Wilson? It seems like the same sort of persona…low key; even-keel, not overly demonstrative. I’m not really sure how he would be a totally different voice for the clubhouse. Do you think it was done because Servais may have been “too close” to some of these guys , and so wasn’t hard enough on them? He did seem like a fatherly/grandfatherly type, and Wilson exudes a different energy from that. But that’s all I have on the major differences.
Iggy: I think the lack of a managerial search was a crime for all involved. But that’s done. If Wilson can change Stanton’s mind about prying open a steel wallet, if he can recruit a hitting coach (doesn’t Edgar want to stay with his family?) who commands presence and respect on the art of hitting, and if his starters have another year without major injury, he’s got a shot at winning 90.
The problem, in my opinion, was the analytical team. They continued to use the same system for churning out lineups and creating matchups. It wasn’t until they (presumably) took Edgar’s (and Wilson’s?) advice and started using set lineups vs. RHPs that things started to change for the better.
Wilson will probably be a fine manager. I don’t have an opinion on his style of managing yet. I personally don’t think Servais’ was a problem and I don’t think he was too close with the players, but sometimes a shakeup is needed just to give everyone a sense of a fresh start.
3 more years with gilbert. 4 with Cal and George. All this talk about move them now if they’re not extending/ interested in staying in Sea. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves and take a step back. 3-4 years of them leading the team(or 2-3 if things don’t improve). The best opportunity is with them on this team- period. It’s just a matter of the supporting players stepping up.
Either Mitch for Chris Taylor(15m)?
100% spot-on correct. I understand and agree with the philosophy of Mil, for example, and moving guys while there is still some value. But that doesn’t mean 3-4 years out. The smart money moves a guy when he starts to get expensive and starts to age out. Not during his prime.
Voth. Orioles FO regretting letting him get away?
In 22, Birds used him often as 5th SP in a bullpen by committee strategy. Two things there. He was effective in that role … and healthy. In 23, he was not healthy and kinda got lost in the bullpen shuffle.
In 24, gets in the 70+/- games for Seattle with okay results. That’s a lot of games. Healthy?! IMO, he’s worth every bit of 2+ mil.
He may be worth 2m, but it’s about how Seattle would use him. It doesn’t seem likely they’ll pay him for a middle-relief role.
The Seattle Mariners were a major disappointment in 2024. No doubt.
But the Mariners were also unlucky to some degree.
Playing in a weak division, Seattle finished one game behind the final two Wild Card slots claimed by Kansas City and Detroit (who were a combined 22-4 against the White Sox).
This year the Mariners posted a Pytagorean record of 89-73 with the sixth-best run differential in a league that sends six teams to the postseason.
In the past four seasons the Mariners have finished one game behind the final Wild Card slot twice, two games behind once and in 2022 secured the pentultimate Wild Card berth.
Over those four seasons the Mariners have posted the American League’s fourth-best cumulative regular season record yet have landed only one postseason berth.
Perhaps the breaks will go the Mariners’ way in my lifetime.
Or not.
Some people feel like they could do a few things to make their own “luck” and tilt the table so more of the “breaks” go their way. JD and ownership will definitely love your hot take, it absolves them.
For the Mariner fans, is there a story with JRod? He’s the kind of player that makes or breaks a rotisserie team. He has Acuna type of talent, maybe even as high as 40/40, but his K/W is worse than it was as a rookie.
Any thoughts or prognostications?
Sophomore slump? Baseball is hard, and even the best players in the world have peaks and valleys. Next year will tell us a lot. We will see if he is able to adjust to the adjustments pitchers make once they have scouting reports on you.
But this was his third year, and it wasn’t a good one. Like you say, we’ll see if he can adjust.
1. He needs to take his walks to get hittable pitches.
2. Then hit the ball where it’s pitched because he can hit to all fields
3. Then ask the owner for a better hitting environment at T-Mobile Park
Drastically overrated. It’s money in the bank that he won’t come through in high leverage situations (i.e. men on, 2 out). His approach should be to scoot a ball right side. Instead he’s ALWAYS swinging out of his spikes. Awful.
Idk who said it above but Jerry is in no danger of losing his job. Ownership loves that Trader Jerry is cost conscious. They remain disinterested in paying for good players. That’s why 2B remains a hole since Robbie was shipped out. It’s a shame. When you have so many brilliant players on entry level contracts you should be spending. When they decide to spend, fans will show out.
Trade C Raliegh, Gilbert 1-1.5 year’s remaining on their contract
Woo,Miller and Kirby have 4-5 years left
Castillo is absolutly getting traded in January ,unless you like how Felix career ended in Seattle then you keep him
Castillo gives them innings and Ks. It’s absolutely not a guarantee he gets traded.
How about trading Nolan Arenado from STL in exchange for Mitch Garver and two prospects?
Arenado has three years and $74 million left on his contract, but excluding the $15 million owed by COL, that leaves $59 million.
If they also take on Garver’s $11.5 million salary, that would reduce the burden to $47.5 million. That’s about $15.8 million per year on average.
If that’s still over budget, you could ask STL to cover part of the salary in exchange for raising the rank of the prospect you’re offering.