The Reds announced that right-hander Emilio Pagan has exercised his $8MM player option for the 2025 season. Pagan inked a two-year, $16MM contract with Cincinnati last winter that included an opt-out clause after the first season, and the reliever has chosen to forego a $250K buyout and a return trip to free agency.
There wasn’t much suspense in Pagan’s decision, as he missed just short of three months of the 2024 season due to a lat strain. The injury limited to Pagan to 38 innings in as many appearances, marking the lowest career total in either category for Pagan during any of his seven regulation-length MLB seasons (Pagan tossed 22 innings in 22 games during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign).
Pagan’s first season in Cincinnati saw him post a 4.50 ERA, but a much more impressive 3.19 SIERA. An inflated .351 BABIP undermined some solidly above-average strikeout (28.1%) and walk (7%) rates, though Pagan did allow a lot of hard contact. Even with this favorable set of advanced metrics, it makes a lot of sense that the 33-year-old Pagan would prefer to lock in $7.75MM of extra guaranteed salary rather than test the market on the heels of what he surely views as a middling platform year.
Pagan’s bottom-line results haven’t always been consistent, though he isn’t far removed from a strong 2023 campaign (with the Twins) that helped him land that $16MM deal in the first place. It isn’t a coincidence that Pagan’s 2023 season included by far the lowest home run rate (5.3%) of his career, as the righty has long had difficulty in keeping the ball in the park. Those issues returned with a 12.5% homer rate in 2024, just slightly bettering his 12.8% career mark.
With Pagan returning and Brent Suter signed to a new contract, the Reds’ bullpen will have some familiar faces back, even if Buck Farmer and swingmen Nick Martinez and Jakob Junis are now all heading for free agency. Getting Alexis Diaz back on track is surely the Reds’ top bullpen concern heading into 2025, though having Pagan stay healthy and deliver his usual type of innings-eating season will surely also help.
No surprise. Just hope next year’s salary is worth it. Last year’s wasn’t.
Hard for a reliever to turn down 16M
He’d be crazy to turn down $8M guaranteed. If he became a FA he might have to settle for a minor league $3M flyer by some desperate team.
Another stupid signing by Krall
At worst, it’s a neccesary but mixed bag by Krall last year. Reds augmented their young staff by signing FA pitchers Pagan, Martinez, Suter, J. Wilson, Farmer and Montas (who was traded and that trade included Junis). Combined their salaries were in the range of about $42MM. They started 45 games and pitched 498 innings (about 55 games). So that group did about 1/3 of the pitching work for the Reds. You can say that Wilson and Pagan were stupid signings- if you concede that Martinez, Suter, Farmer, (and Junis) were brilliant signings.