The Nationals announced Friday that they’ve non-tendered closer Kyle Finnegan and fellow right-handed reliever Tanner Rainey. Both pitchers are now free agents. It’s a surprise move for the Nats, who watched Finnegan make his first All-Star team in 2024 while pacing the team with 38 saves. He’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.6MM in arbitration.
Unexpected as the move was, there’s a case to be made that Finnegan’s gaudy save totals have disproportionately inflated his value. The 33-year-old righty hasn’t been a bad reliever on a rate basis by any means, but he’s also not the shutdown weapon many might expect based on that All-Star nod and his 66 saves over the past two seasons. Finnegan pitched to a solid but unspectacular 3.68 earned run average in 63 2/3 innings this season. Despite a blazing 97.4 mph average on his fastball, Finnegan’s 22.1% strikeout rate was lower than the league average for relievers. His 8.9% walk rate was right at the league average. He’s also been fairly susceptible to home runs, serving up an average of 1.35 big flies per nine innings pitched over the past two seasons.
Hard as Finnegan throws, neither his four-seamer nor his splitter miss bats at a high level. This year’s 10.8% swinging-strike rate was below average. He’s also quite prone to hard contact, even beyond the home runs. He yielded an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph in 2024 and 92.2 mph in 2023. Over the past two seasons, a whopping 47.8% of the batted balls against him left the bat at 95 mph or greater.
Metrics like FIP (4.42), xFIP (3.91) and SIERA (3.90) simply haven’t bought into Finnegan as a premium reliever over the past two seasons, even as he’s been the Nationals’ go-to option in leverage situations. Washington has traded away most of its short-term veterans at this point but held onto Finnegan. Some have speculated that perhaps teams were unwilling to meet GM Mike Rizzo’s asking price in a trade, but today’s non-tender surely came on the heels of an effort to trade Finnegan. It’s likely that many teams around the league simply don’t feel Finnegan, at 33 years of age and with a worsening K-BB rates in three straight seasons, is worth his likely $8-9MM price tag in arbitration.
Some of that trepidation is surely borne from the fact that Finnegan pitched quite poorly in the season’s final two months. The right-hander carried a 2.32 ERA, 26% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate through late July. Over his final 21 innings, however, he was shelled for a 6.43 ERA with just a 15.7% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate. Finnegan didn’t experience a drop in velocity, but he was nowhere near as effective as he’d been for the first two-thirds of the season.
None of this is to say Finnegan won’t find interest now that he’s unexpectedly become a free agent. He now only costs money and a roster spot, and other clubs that are intrigued by the raw velocity on that four-seamer might well have some ideas about how to coax more swings and misses out of what’s clearly a power arm. A club willing to look past the poor finish to his 2024 season could certainly dream on the scenario of getting him back to the form he displayed leading into this year’s All-Star Game.
Finnegan probably won’t command an annual salary in the $8-9MM range like he might’ve earned in free agency, but he’s the rare non-tendered player who might also have a chance at commanding a multi-year deal at a lower rate of pay. More likely, he’ll ink a one-year deal and look to rebound before hitting the market on the heels of a stronger showing next winter. He’ll be heading into his age-34 campaign at that point — a downside of not making his MLB debut until his age-28 season.
Rainey, 31, is a far more straightforward non-tender case. The former flamethrowing reliever was a key piece of Washington’s bullpen in 2019-20, but injuries have taken their toll — most notably Tommy John surgery in 2022. Rainey pitched just one inning in ’23, and while he returned to toss 51 frames this past season, his 94 mph average fastball was nowhere near its 97.7 mph peak. He was tagged for a 4.76 ERA on the season while displaying strikeout (19%), walk (12.6%) and home run (1.41 per nine) rates that were significantly worse than league average. Swartz projected him for a $1.9MM salary in arbitration, but Rainey might need to settle for a minor league deal to show he can regain some of his pre-injury form.
sean-11
wtf
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
It makes a lot of sense, a lot of non sense
mlb1225
Wonder when the last time an all-star was non-tendered during the off-season.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
Maybe Mike Williams the 2003 all star with a 6.00 ERA
ruthlesslyabsurd
And 6.44 in the first half too! It’s not just that he had a horrible finish
manfraud
Well that’s a fun bit of history for the day. How in hell did he get an all star selection out of that
mlb1225
Pirates weren’t good, but Williams was their only all-star representative when Jason Kendall, Brain Giles, Kenny Lofton, and Kip Wells were each having decent seasons.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
Hard to think that Kendall or Giles didn’t get the nod even if they were having down years at that point
mlb1225
Neither Kendall nor Giles were having bad years though. Kendall was batting .308/.388/.407 in the first half of ’03. Giles hit .307/.444/.512. Lofton? .283 average, .788 OPS, Wells? 3.74 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. I was really too young to remember why Williams made it over any of them, but I’d really like to know what possibly was going on that Williams had to be the representative.
Rsox
It came down to roster construction. The team carried only 2 Catchers (Javy Lopez as the starter and Paul Lo Duca as the reserve) and 9 Outfielders (Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Gary Sheffield and Barry Bonds (DH) started and Luis Gonzalez, Geoff Jenkins, Andruw Jones, Rondell White and Preston Wilson as reserves). White and Gonzalez were the Padres and Diamondbacks only representatives so i guess it made sense to take a Pitcher from the Pirates
Blue Baron
mlb1225: The Mets non-tendered Edgardo Alfonzo, an all-star in 2000, following the 2002 season in which he batted .308 with 16 homers and 56 RBI and posted 5.0 WAR at age 28, although there was some skepticism about his real age. I was floored by the move.
He played through 2006 with the Giants, Angels, and Blue Jays, never posting WAR better than 0.6.
Scooey
Oh, goodness, was he dreadful with the Giants.. Mets were shrewd.
Blue Baron
Society: I recall scuttlebutt at the time about him actually being older than 28, but I don’t think there was any proof either way.
orbitsbrother
I think Bryan Lahair made the All Star team and then was in Japan the next season.
Expos The Manfraud
Saving for Soto
Cambo
I think the duo was responsible for about 8 MET wins.
getrealgone2
Interesting.
roob
I guess they didn’t want to pay Finnegan what he’s worth.
Steve M.
$8.6 if they went to arb. Why pay that much. Finnegan had a lot of saves but too much pitch to contact.
mostlytoasty
Yeah I think the nontender itself makes sense, just weird the Nats didn’t try to move him at the TDL. Or maybe they did and didn’t get any suitors. His under the hood metrics aren’t great
Blackpink in the area
Surprising but I do think you could find a better reliever for 8.6 million. This reminds me of a reliever for the Brewers that got non tendered years ago. I can’t remember his name he changed teams a few times.
holecamels35
John Axford?? Derrick Turnbow?
They’re the kings of developing closers.
Blackpink in the area
Axford that was him.
holecamels35
Maybe they sign Holmes or Scott??
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
Uhh no
holecamels35
Why not? Nats have spent a ton when their team was competing. They are nearing the end of their rebuild. I’d expect them to at least get one premium free agent. They aren’t like the A’s, Pirates, Marlins etc.
dclivejazz
That was under Ted Lerner who had a firm grip on controlling the team’s decisions. It’s not so clear that his son Mark has the same clout within the family, which makes most major decisions by committee. We’ll see.
nanyuanb
Fair argument. But we can still expect them to sign one premium FA to push the total salaries to above 100MM.
James Midway
Angels on line 1
LFGMets (Metsin7) #BannedForBeingABaseballExpert
Horrible move. Has Rizzo gone insane? Finnegan is one of the most reliable closers in baseball
Lindor's Bodyguard
Did you read the article?
gbs42
But Lindor, LFG is an Expert, dontcha know???
Self-proclaimed, of course…
JoeBrady
Did you read the article?
=========================
Or more importantly, read his stats. I had him on 2 roto teams last year. I needed saves, but he was often cringe-worthy, as in destroying a week’s worth of good stats from my pitchers.
gbs42
Joe,
I had him on a team, too. Great to start the year, awful the last couple of months, as the article says and my experience, like yours, showed.
The statement “Finnegan is one of the most reliable closers in baseball” is evidence of LFG’s non-expert status.
Wadz
Awful peripherals.. great in save situations somehow
Baseball’s Topics on Baseball Today
Then why didn’t you trade him at the deadline?
Wadz
Because teams are aware he’s smoke and mirrors
camdenyards46
Could have definitely gotten a low level prospect at the very least (more than nothing)
Lindor's Bodyguard
Apparently NOT.
Baseball’s Topics on Baseball Today
You mean no one was willing to give more than nothing? Because that’s what the Nationals are getting.
Wadz
You get the gist
Armaments216
Sure teams would have given something at the deadline. But maybe the Nats didn’t think a minimal return was worth the bad optics – looking like they’re just dumping salary. And also possible their own evaluation of Finnegan has changed since that point.
C Yards Jeff
They probably tried to trade him but turned out GMs were more interested in Harvey?
Poolhalljunkies
Lots of teams will be calling
fenwayfrank
Wtf, their loaded aren’t they? I can see Rainey, but, the closer?
DarkSide830
lol what
camdenyards46
Why did they not trade him at the deadline
AHH-Rox
Maybe at the deadline they intended to keep him for 2025. Article says he was lousy the last 2 months of the season which could have changed their outlook on him.
Rob66
Wonder how many teams will be interested in him and trying to tweak his stuff
Positively Half St
In Rizzo we trust.
TheFuzzofKing
I get it, but there’s no spinning this: had two deadlines to trade him in meaningless seasons. Didn’t. Riz whiffed.
Wadz
Can’t create trade value out of thin air bub
TheFuzzofKing
You haven’t been paying attention for two years.
They got nothing. Could have had something. Held out for something +?
Now they get nothing. They lose.
weaselpuppy
Finnegan, begin again.
Salzilla
That’s a bananas one. Finnegan is good, he’ll find a new team in no time.
609Collectibles
Most surprising one yet. Logically you would think a big market team would’ve sent them a couple lottery ticket prospects or out of options younger arm in a trade. Makes you wonder how much actual work some of these overpaid baseball executives do. That move may have just helped other clubs looking for relief help on the free agent & trade markets. Ryan Pressly will earn 14mil next year, the Astros ask just went down.
Brave New Guy
He will latch on with a non contender as a late inning arm or with a contender in a lesser leverage role. I don’t know, but an average bullpen arm should hold some value..
njmlins
only question now is, which team signs him and turns him into high leverage back end guy…Rays or Dodgers?
jvent
Hey Mets we need some relief pitchers
920falcon
Rainey might be back in Washington on a minor league deal. I could see that.
Baseball Babe
Sorry but Finnegan is way more than a league average arm. He has the guts to pitch the ninth inning, and he always takes the ball, even if Davey is pitching his arm off three or four days in a row.
NattyLites
So then trade him for ANYTHING at the deadline. Anything would have better than this (nothing)
Armaments216
Tanner Rainey may have been the last remaining National from the 2019 World Series team.
Screamer
I met Kyle in 2019 in Vegas; his dad too. Great guys; would love to see him back with the A’s
NattyLites
I don’t have issue with Rizzo getting rid of Finnegan before 2025 (I advocated to move him at the deadline). What I have issue with this is that he didn’t just trade Finnegan at the deadline for the best offer available if this was within the realm of possibility.
Could have at least netted 2 org top 20 prospects, maybe 1 top 10ish in return. Instead got nothing.
AHH-Rox
I just now realized that this is a different player from Brandon Finnegan. Who apparently is already out of baseball.
dclivejazz
Jettisoning both of these relievers begs a couple of questions: why didn’t the team trade Finnegan at the trade deadline, and why did they waste a roster spot on Rainey for the entire season?
There are arguments to make in favor of these moves, or lack thereof (eg they didn’t expect Finnegan to pitch so poorly down the stretch, they hoped Rainey would recover more fully). Still, it looks like bad decision making and execution on the part of the Front Office.
Rsox
Strange in general seeing a Closer non-tendered, especially one coming off of a 38 save season.
nanyuanb
Finnegan was the one I eagerly hoped for a trade at the deadline. Apparently, Rizzo tagged him as a premium closer but no other team agreed.
Motor City Beach Bum
Finnegan looks like an interesting arm for Tigers pitching coach Chris Fetter to play with. They need a power arm for the back end of the bullpen.
SewaldSwansonSwoon
Lol wut
Finny is literally the reason I still have hope past the 5th inning in Nats games
MLBTR needs to hire editors
“He now only costs money and a roster spot“ what does this even mean? Isn’t that what he would have cost the Nationals too?
energel
but…. hes there closer
DCDude2007
Man, as a Nats fan, this sucks.
But I read an article on District on Deck the other day, saying the Nats should trade for Fairbanks and sign Minter and Maton. (BTW, Nats fans should give that article a read.)
How would that or something similar work? Maybe trade with St. Louis to acquire Helsley?
No doubt, two of the Nats’ needs for Mike Rizzo to acquire are left-handed relievers and a potential Finnegan replacement to close out games in the bullpen. I’m unsure of having Ferrer, Garcia, or Brzycky to close games…thoughts?