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Tanner Rainey

Pirates Re-Sign Tanner Rainey To Minor League Deal

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Right-hander Tanner Rainey has reunited with the Pirates on a minor league deal and will report to Triple-A Indianapolis, as relayed by Alex Stumpf of MLB.com. He was designated for assignment by the Bucs just over a week ago but had cleared waivers and elected free agency, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com.

Rainey, 32, signed a minor league deal with the Pirates in the offseason. He was selected to their roster in early May and spent almost a month on the roster. In that time, he struggled mightily through 11 appearances where he surrendered nine runs on seven hits and six walks while striking out six across 7 2/3 innings of work. A look under the hood reveals that eight of those appearances were actually scoreless, as he allowed all nine runs across the other three outings while combining to record just two outs in those appearances.

Meltdowns like that are sure to balloon a pitcher’s ERA, but Rainey retained the peripherals of a perfectly decent middle reliever. He struck out 24.3% of his opponents, and while his 16.2% walk rate was definitely alarming his ability to keep the ball on the ground and miss barrels was enough to allow him to maintain a solid 3.46 FIP and a decent 4.32 SIERA. Those numbers would be a marked improvement over last year, when he pitched to a 4.76 ERA and 5.42 FIP in 51 frames for the Nationals while walking 12.6% of his opponents and striking out just 19.0%.

Of course, the Pirates were surely hoping to help Rainey discover the form he flashed earlier in his Nationals career when they initially signed him. From 2019 to 2023, Rainey posted a 4.39 ERA with a 4.54 FIP in his 140 appearances for the club. That includes one major outlier season, however, as 2021 saw him torched to the tune of a 7.39 ERA in 31 2/3 innings of work. Rainey’s ERA was under 4.00 in the other four years of that stretch, and he even got some high-leverage work in during the 2022 campaign when he collected 12 saves.

If Rainey can get right, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him get another opportunity for a beleaguered Pirates team that could certainly use some help in the bullpen. Their 4.22 ERA ranks 20th in baseball, and key pieces like Tim Mayza and Justin Lawrence are currently on the shelf. Dennis Santana, David Bednar, and Caleb Ferguson are a decent late-inning trio, but Pittsburgh could use more solid middle relief options than Ryan Borucki and Kyle Nicolas. Of course, Rainey will need to compete with other non-roster veterans like Yohan Ramirez and Ryder Ryan to capitalize on those opportunities.

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images

Pirates Claim Ronny Simón, Designate Tanner Rainey For Assignment

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2:25pm: The Pirates announced that they have claimed Simón and optioned him to Triple-A Indianapolis, with Rainey designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

1:25pm: The Pirates have claimed infielder Ronny Simón off waivers from the Marlins. The latter club designated him for assignment last week. Right-hander Tanner Rainey has been designated for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for Simón. Mike Rodriguez first reported that Simón would be joining the Pirates. Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reported that it would be a waiver claim. Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reported that Rainey was the corresponding move.

Simón, 25, got his first major league call just over a month ago. The Marlins selected his contract on April 20th and he stuck on the roster until he was designated for assignment on May 30th. He got into 19 games and stepped to the plate 56 times, producing a batting line of .234/.327/.277.

That was a fairly unremarkable performance from a statistical point of view but Simón got thrust into the spotlight in an unusual way. As relayed Jason Foster and Christina De Nicola of MLB.com, Simón had a nightmare game against the Padres last week. The Fish were up 6-0 on Tuesday but several errors and general defensive miscues from Simón allowed the Friars to engineer an 8-6 comeback victory.

Amid the chaotic contest, Simón was seen wiping tears from his face. After the game, he received plenty of encouraging messages from his teammates and even his opponents. Per the MLB.com story, Padres such as Manny Machado, Luis Arráez and Fernando Tatis Jr. sent supportive texts to Simón after the game. In addition to that challenging on-field experience, Simón also had to deal with getting sent into DFA limbo a few days later. However, he has quickly found a new home by landing with the Pirates.

Simón’s major league time isn’t much to go on. Presumably, the Pirates are paying more attention to his minor league work. In 2,328 minor league plate appearances, he has a .266/.341/.446 line and 108 wRC+. Before getting called up this year, he got into 15 Triple-A contests and had a massive .354/.441/.521 line in that small sample.

As of July of last year, FanGraphs considered Simón to be one of the top 20 prospects in the Rays’ system, noting that his switch-hitting and defensive versatility gave him a good shot to eventually become a utility player. He has experience at the three infield positions to the left of first base as well as the outfield corners. He’s generally been able to steal about 20-35 bases annually. The Rays didn’t give him a 40-man spot at the end of last year, which led him to sign a minors deal with the Marlins coming into 2025.

He still has a full slate of options, so the Pirates can keep him in the minors if they don’t have room at the big league level. Rainey’s DFA does open an active roster spot but the Pirates might recall a pitcher rather than playing with the pitching staff shorthanded.

Rainey, 32, signed a minor league deal with the Pirates in the offseason and was selected to the roster about a month ago. He has since tossed 7 2/3 innings over 11 appearances, allowing nine earned runs. There’s surely a bit of luck in there, especially from a 35.7% strand rate that is ridiculously low, but he also hasn’t done himself any favors by walking 16.2% of batters faced. On the positive side, his 24.3% strikeout rate and 45% ground ball rate are solid numbers.

He’ll now head into DFA limbo, which can last for as long as a week. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so the Pirates could take five days to try to line up a trade. Rainey’s overall track record includes 197 big league innings with a 5.44 ERA. From 2019 to 2024, he logged 182 1/3 of those innings with a 4.49 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate and 14.1% walk rate.

Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images

Which Arms Could The Pirates *Actually* Trade This Summer?

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This week's report that there's "no chance" the Pirates trade ace Paul Skenes, just one and a half seasons into his six-year window of club control, stood out as fairly obvious for most onlookers. That anyone felt it needed to be said at all was more a reflection on the organization as a whole than Skenes himself.

Pittsburgh has taken a step back this season, sitting on pace to win 56 games after winning 76 games in both 2023 and 2024. A rebuild that has seen the Bucs pick ninth or better in five consecutive drafts, including No. 1 overall in 2021 and 2023, has not only failed to produce a contender -- it's failed to even produce a farm system that ranks in the top third of MLB. The team at Baseball America ranked the Pirates with MLB's 16th-best system prior to this season. Keith Law of The Athletic did the same. MLB.com's trio of Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo and Sam Dykstra ranked the Bucs 14th. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel was more bearish, ranking them 20th.

The Pirates already fired manager Derek Shelton. General manager Ben Cherington can't feel as secure as he did a few seasons ago. Owner Bob Nutting bears the brunt of the blame; his refusal to invest in the roster leaves the front office and coaching staff zero margin for error. Nutting's overwhelmingly frugal nature also leaves veritably no chance that Skenes will be signed long-term.

Just because a trade at some point down the road feels inevitable, however, does not mean it'll happen this year. That's never seemed likely, and while the "no way, no chance, no how" quote was from a Pirates executive who preferred to remain anonymous rather than place their name on those words, GM Ben Cherington soon offered a similar sentiment on the record.

The Pirates, for all their warts, are still a pitching-rich organization. The name at the very top of the pyramid may not be on the move, but the Pirates will have no shortage of pitchers who are legitimately available this summer. There's always a broad range of "availability." Pure veteran rentals will probably be aggressively shopped. Pitchers signed/controlled through 2026 will presumably be available but with a higher price tag. And there will be some arms with even more club control on whom the Bucs will listen but not outright dangle to contenders seeking to bolster their own staffs.

Let's run through some of the likely available inventory.

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Pirates Select Tanner Rainey, Place Isiah Kiner-Falefa On Injured List

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The Pirates are selecting the contract of right-hander Tanner Rainey, according to a club announcement. Right-hander Justin Lawrence was transferred to the 60-day injured list to make room for Rainey on the 40-man roster, while Rainey’s active roster spot will come at the expense of infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The veteran utility man is being placed on the 10-day injured list due to a right hamstring strain, and the move is retroactive to May 1.

Rainey, 32, signed with the Pirates on a minor league deal back in December after being non-tendered by the Nationals just a couple of weeks prior. Originally drafted in the second round of the 2015 draft by the Reds, Rainey debuted with Cincinnati back in 2018 but was flipped to Washington prior to the 2019 season and has spent the vast majority of his career in the nation’s capital. In parts of six seasons with the Nats, Rainey has generally been a serviceable middle reliever with a 4.49 ERA (94 ERA+) and a 28.5% strikeout rate in his 182 1/3 innings of work.

Those numbers are decent enough, and he even earned some run as the club’s closer while the team was rebuilding in 2022 as he picked up 12 saves, but Rainey’s hefty 14.1% walk rate largely locked him out of the late innings with the club. His performance in 2024, when he pitched to a 4.76 ERA (86 ERA+) with a 5.42 FIP and a 12.6% walk rate against a strikeout rate of just 19.0%, was enough to convince the Nationals to move on from him rather than pay him an arbitration-level salary. Even so, the Pirates were interested enough in his strikeout-heavy profile to bring him into the fold as a potential depth option. He’ll now get a new big league opportunity with his third organization amid a season where the Pirates’ bullpen has largely been in flux.

Meanwhile, Kiner-Falefa exits Pittsburgh’s positional mix after hitting .280/.333/.330 in 109 plate appearances across his first 30 games of the year. The veteran’s lack of power means that line is overall good for a wRC+ of 87, but he’s been getting on base at a solid clip, keeping his strikeouts under control, and playing solid defense as the club’s reular shortstop. The Pirates will need to figure things out at the position without Kiner-Falefa’s steady glove, and that could be easier said than done. It would be a surprise if the Pirates opted to move Oneil Cruz back onto the infield dirt after he’s worked to improve as their everyday center fielder, which could leave the club to rely on Jared Triolo as its everyday shortstop for the time being.

As for Lawrence, it was revealed earlier this week that Lawrence was headed for a second opinion on his elbow injury. The diagnosis from that second opinion has not yet been revealed, but his transfer to the 60-day IL seems to indicate that Pittsburgh brass are expecting a fairly lengthy absence for their right-hander. It’s a frustrating blow to the Pirates’ bullpen, as his 11 1/3 innings of work with the club have been nothing short of fantastic with a 0.79 ERA and a 2.53 FIP. Lawrence was one of the biggest pleasant surprises of the Pirates’ young season so far, and now they’ll need to hope that Rainey or one of their other bullpen arms can similarly surprise and pick up the slack.

Pirates Sign Tanner Rainey, Hunter Stratton To Minor League Contracts

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The Pirates have signed right-handers Tanner Rainey and Hunter Stratton to minors deals, as respectively reported by Just Baseball’s Aram Leighton (X link) and Stratton’s MLB.com profile page.  Rainey’s contract contains an invitation to the Pirates’ big league spring camp, and it can be assumed that Stratton’s deal also has an invite, though Stratton’s uncertain health situation in the wake of knee surgery could limit his participation in Spring Training.

Rainey heads to Pittsburgh after a topsy-turvy six-year run with the Nationals, highlighted by a World Series ring in his first year with the club.  Rainey delivered a 3.91 ERA and 34.6% strikeout rate in 48 1/3 relief innings for that 2019 championship team, but also had an ugly 17.8% walk rate.  These control issues plagued Rainey for most of his time in Washington, and he also missed virtually all of the 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

After Rainey posted a 4.76 ERA, 19% strikeout rate, and 12.6% walk rate over 51 innings in 2024, the Nationals unsurprisingly decided to non-tender the righty, even though Rainey was projected for a modest $1.9MM arbitration salary.  Now entering his age-32 season, Rainey will look to rebuild himself in the Bucs’ spring camp, and hopefully regain some of the form and velocity that made him a valuable bullpen asset for the Nats in 2020 and 2022.

Stratton was also non-tendered by the Pirates in November, but there was an expectation that Pittsburgh would (just as they did last offseason) re-sign the righty to a new minor league deal.  Stratton has an impressive 3.26 ERA and 4.9% walk rate across 49 2/3 career Major League innings, all with Pittsburgh over the last two seasons.  Despite a lack of big strikeout totals, Stratton’s ability to induce soft contact has made him an interesting relief option out of the Pirates’ bullpen.

Unfortunately for Stratton, his 2024 season was cut short by a flukish injury on August 24 that left him with a ruptured patellar tendon.  Stratton was behind home plate at PNC Park and pursuing a loose ball when he stumbled into the stone wall, causing the injury and putting his career on hold for an estimated 7-10 months.  This fluid timeline means that Stratton would return anywhere from Opening Day to late June, but the minor league contract gives him plenty of time to fully get himself right during Spring Training or in the Pirates’ farm system.

Nationals Non-Tender Kyle Finnegan

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The Nationals announced Friday that they’ve non-tendered closer Kyle Finnegan and fellow right-handed reliever Tanner Rainey. Both pitchers are now free agents. It’s a surprise move for the Nats, who watched Finnegan make his first All-Star team in 2024 while pacing the team with 38 saves. He’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.6MM in arbitration.

Unexpected as the move was, there’s a case to be made that Finnegan’s gaudy save totals have disproportionately inflated his value. The 33-year-old righty hasn’t been a bad reliever on a rate basis by any means, but he’s also not the shutdown weapon many might expect based on that All-Star nod and his 66 saves over the past two seasons. Finnegan pitched to a solid but unspectacular 3.68 earned run average in 63 2/3 innings this season. Despite a blazing 97.4 mph average on his fastball, Finnegan’s 22.1% strikeout rate was lower than the league average for relievers. His 8.9% walk rate was right at the league average. He’s also been fairly susceptible to home runs, serving up an average of 1.35 big flies per nine innings pitched over the past two seasons.

Hard as Finnegan throws, neither his four-seamer nor his splitter miss bats at a high level. This year’s 10.8% swinging-strike rate was below average. He’s also quite prone to hard contact, even beyond the home runs. He yielded an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph in 2024 and 92.2 mph in 2023. Over the past two seasons, a whopping 47.8% of the batted balls against him left the bat at 95 mph or greater.

Metrics like FIP (4.42), xFIP (3.91) and SIERA (3.90) simply haven’t bought into Finnegan as a premium reliever over the past two seasons, even as he’s been the Nationals’ go-to option in leverage situations. Washington has traded away most of its short-term veterans at this point but held onto Finnegan. Some have speculated that perhaps teams were unwilling to meet GM Mike Rizzo’s asking price in a trade, but today’s non-tender surely came on the heels of an effort to trade Finnegan. It’s likely that many teams around the league simply don’t feel Finnegan, at 33 years of age and with a worsening K-BB rates in three straight seasons, is worth his likely $8-9MM price tag in arbitration.

Some of that trepidation is surely borne from the fact that Finnegan pitched quite poorly in the season’s final two months. The right-hander carried a 2.32 ERA, 26% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate through late July. Over his final 21 innings, however, he was shelled for a 6.43 ERA with just a 15.7% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate. Finnegan didn’t experience a drop in velocity, but he was nowhere near as effective as he’d been for the first two-thirds of the season.

None of this is to say Finnegan won’t find interest now that he’s unexpectedly become a free agent. He now only costs money and a roster spot, and other clubs that are intrigued by the raw velocity on that four-seamer might well have some ideas about how to coax more swings and misses out of what’s clearly a power arm. A club willing to look past the poor finish to his 2024 season could certainly dream on the scenario of getting him back to the form he displayed leading into this year’s All-Star Game.

Finnegan probably won’t command an annual salary in the $8-9MM range like he might’ve earned in free agency, but he’s the rare non-tendered player who might also have a chance at commanding a multi-year deal at a lower rate of pay. More likely, he’ll ink a one-year deal and look to rebound before hitting the market on the heels of a stronger showing next winter. He’ll be heading into his age-34 campaign at that point — a downside of not making his MLB debut until his age-28 season.

Rainey, 31, is a far more straightforward non-tender case. The former flamethrowing reliever was a key piece of Washington’s bullpen in 2019-20, but injuries have taken their toll — most notably Tommy John surgery in 2022. Rainey pitched just one inning in ’23, and while he returned to toss 51 frames this past season, his 94 mph average fastball was nowhere near its 97.7 mph peak. He was tagged for a 4.76 ERA on the season while displaying strikeout (19%), walk (12.6%) and home run (1.41 per nine) rates that were significantly worse than league average. Swartz projected him for a $1.9MM salary in arbitration, but Rainey might need to settle for a minor league deal to show he can regain some of his pre-injury form.

National League Non-Tenders: 11/22/24

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The deadline to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7pm CT. Here’s a rundown of the players on National League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all players eligible for arbitration last month. All players who are non-tendered before this evening’s deadline go directly into free agency, where they’re eligible to sign with any of MLB’s 30 clubs.

Onto the transactions…

  • The Braves non-tendered outfielder Ramón Laureano, left-hander Ray Kerr, as well as right-handers Griffin Canning, Huascar Ynoa and Royber Salinas, which you can read more about here.
  • The Brewers parted ways with lefty reliever Hoby Milner, who’d been projected at $2.7MM for his final arbitration season. The typically reliable southpaw was tagged for a 4.73 ERA in 64 2/3 innings this year.
  • The Cardinals have non-tendered right-hander Adam Kloffenstein, per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (Bluesky link). The righty only just made his major league debut in 2024 and was not yet arb-eligible. He immediately becomes a free agent without being exposed to waivers.
  • The Cubs have non-tendered infielder Nick Madrigal, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN (X link). Madrigal has hit .251/.304/.312 for a 76 wRC+ over the last three seasons with the Cubs and was projected for a $1.9MM salary next year. Chicago also announced they non-tendered outfielder Mike Tauchman, which comes as a bit of a surprise after he reached base at a .357 clip this year. Patrick Wisdom, Adbert Alzolay, Brennen Davis and Trey Wingenter — all of whom were designated for assignment earlier this week — were also dropped.
  • The Diamondbacks non-tendered lefty reliever Brandon Hughes, per a club announcement. The 28-year-old southpaw allowed 16 runs over 17 2/3 big league innings this year. He wasn’t eligible for arbitration but would’ve occupied a 40-man roster spot if offered a contract.
  • The Dodgers are non-tendering right-hander Brent Honeywell Jr. and left-hander Zach Logue, per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (X link). Both pitchers are still in their pre-arbitration years, so this was more about the Dodgers sending them to free agency without exposing them to waivers, as opposed to cost cutting. Perhaps the club will look to re-sign them on minor league deals.
  • The Giants only made two non-tenders, parting with lefty Ethan Small and righty Kai-Wei Teng. Teng had been designated for assignment earlier in the week. Small, who was in his pre-arbitration years, spent the season in the minors or on the injured list.
  • The Marlins had zero non-tenders. They offered contracts to everyone on the 40-man roster.
  • The Mets dropped a trio of players from the 40-man roster: relievers Grant Hartwig and Alex Young and outfield prospect Alex Ramirez. Young was the only member of that group who’d been eligible for arbitration. The southpaw pitched well in a depth role, but the Mets didn’t want to keep him around at a $1.4MM projection. Hartwig made four appearances this year, while the 21-year-old Ramirez (a former top prospect) had a .210/.291/.299 showing in Double-A.
  • The Nationals announced that they have non-tendered right-hander Kyle Finnegan and Tanner Rainey, which you can read more about here.
  • The Padres dropped four players from the roster: righties Luis Patino and Logan Gillaspie, outfielder Bryce Johnson and infielder Mason McCoy. Patino, who underwent Tommy John surgery last summer, was the only member of the group who’d been eligible for arbitration. The other three cuts are simply about roster maintenance. The Padres could try to bring anyone from that group back on minor league deals.
  • The Phillies will not be tendering a contract to outfielder Austin Hays, which MLBTR covered earlier today.
  • The Pirates are expected to non-tender first baseman/outfielder Connor Joe and outfielder Bryan De La Cruz, per Alex Stumpf of MLB.com (Bluesky link). They are also non-tendering right-hander Hunter Stratton, per Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (X link). Joe was projected for a salary of $3.2MM next year and De La Cruz $4MM. Stratton had not yet qualified for arbitration. Joe has been around league average at the plate in his career but doing more damage against lefties. De La Cruz has hit .253/.297/.407 in his career for a wRC+ of 90. Startton had a 3.58 ERA this year but his season was ended by knee surgery, giving him an uncertain path forward.
  • The Reds have non-tendered right-hander Ian Gibaut, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Bluesky link). The righty was projected for a salary of $800K. He spent the vast majority of 2024 on the injured list due to arm trouble and only made two appearances on the season.
  • The Rockies moved on from starter Cal Quantrill and second baseman Brendan Rodgers, which MLBTR covered here.

Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Victor Robles, Tanner Rainey

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The Nationals have avoided arbitration with outfielder Victor Robles and right-handed reliever Tanner Rainey, the team announced. Robles, 26, was eligible for his final year of arbitration, while Rainey, 30, will be arbitration-eligible one last time next winter.

Rainey will earn $1.5MM in 2024 (per Andrew Golden of The Washington Post), which doesn’t come as any surprise; he made the same salary this past season in a year almost completely lost to injury, and arbitration-eligible players rarely receive raises after lost seasons. No dollar value has been reported for Robles, although he was projected to earn $2.7MM in arbitration. The center fielder made $2.325MM last year, and the Nationals turned down a $3.3MM club option for his services in 2024. His new deal most likely falls somewhere in between those two figures.

Around the end of the regular season, Washington agreed to a contract with veteran utilityman Ildemaro Vargas, who was eligible for his second year of arbitration. The team now has four players who could still go to arbitration this winter: outfielder Lane Thomas, closer Kyle Finnegan, set-up man Hunter Harvey, and former top prospect Luis Garcia. The Nationals have already DFA’d several arb-eligible players ahead of the non-tender deadline on November 17, including first baseman Dominic Smith, right-handed reliever Victor Arano, and utility player Michael Chavis.

Nationals Activate Tanner Rainey From 60-Day IL

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The Nationals announced this afternoon that the club has activated right-hander Tanner Rainey from the 60-day injured list. In corresponding moves, left-hander Robert Garcia was placed on the paternity list, opening up a spot on the club’s active roster, while catcher Riley Adams was transferred to the 60-day IL to clear space on the 40-man roster.

The move sets Rainey, 30, up for his 2023 season debut. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery last August and has been working his way back ever since, but prior to his injury had posted solid numbers out of the Washington bullpen in 2022 with a 3.30 ERA and 4.18 FIP while racking up 12 saves in 30 innings of work. Since being traded from Cincinnati to the Nationals prior to the 2019 season, Rainey has largely been a quality bullpen arm. While his 4.42 ERA (97 ERA+) and 4.54 FIP as a National leave something to be desired, the mediocre career numbers can be attributed entirely to a brutal 2021 campaign that saw Rainey post a ghastly 7.39 ERA and 5.63 FIP in 38 appearances. Across his other three years in the majors with the Nationals, he’s posted ERAs below 4.00.

That being said, Rainey’s strong results in 2019, 2020, and 2022 hide serious control issues. He’s walked a whopping 15.5% of batters faced in his big league career, with figures north of 10% in every season except for the shortened 2020 campaign. Rainey also runs into further trouble as a flyball pitcher (career 36.1% groundball rate) who allows home runs at an elevated rate, with 17.2% of his fly balls allowed leaving the yard throughout his career. Fortunately, Rainey manages to make up for his lackluster walk rates and home run suppression numbers with tantalizing raw stuff, as demonstrated by his career strikeout rate of 31.2%, including an eye-popping 42.7% figure in 20 1/3 innings of work during the shortened 2020 campaign.

Given the fact that Washington can control Rainey via arbitration through the end of the 2025 season, it’s hardly a surprise that the club would want to see Rainey in action before the offseason as they look to decide whether or not to tend him a contract, which could include a slight raise over this year’s $1.5MM salary. Given Rainey’s past success and high strikeout totals, the right-hander should have a chance to factor into the club’s late inning mix next season if he remains with the club throughout the offseason.

As for Garcia, the rookie southpaw’s placement on the paternity list likely brings his season to an end. The 27-year-old had a solid debut campaign split between the Marlins and the Nationals this year, with a 3.66 ERA, 3.54 FIP, and a 26.6% strikeout rate in 32 innings of work. Adams’s season ended in hamate surgery earlier this month, so the move to the 60-day IL is nothing more than procedural for the young catcher, who slashed an impressive .273/.331/.476 in 44 games in the majors this year.

Who Could The Nationals Trade At The Deadline?

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This year’s trade deadline seems like it has the potential to be unique, with very few clear sellers. The expanded playoffs and weak Central divisions mean that there are only five teams that are more than eight games out of a playoff spot at the All-Star break.

One of those five clubs is in Washington, as the Nationals have been rebuilding in recent years. Stars like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Juan Soto have been flipped in deadline deals over the past two seasons, which unsurprisingly has led to them being one of the few noncompetitive clubs here in 2023. Their 36-54 record has them in last in the National League East and they’re 13 games back in the Wild Card race.

The Nats therefore stand out as one of the few clear sellers at this point, with just over three weeks until the August 1 deadline. They no longer have superstars like those mentioned above, but there are still some players that should attract attention.

Rental Players

Jeimer Candelario

Candelario, 29, is one of the most straightforward trade candidates in the league. He’s an impending free agent having a great season on a team that’s clearly in a position to sell. MLBTR recently listed the top 50 trade candidates for this summer and Candelario took the #2 spot, trailing only Lucas Giolito of the White Sox.

The third baseman was seemingly breaking out in Detroit not too long ago, putting up solid numbers both in 2020 and 2021. He produced a .278/.356/.458 batting line over those campaigns for a 125 wRC+ and was considered around league average defensively, leading to a tally of 5.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in 201 games. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong in 2022 as he hit just .217/.272/.361 for an 80 wRC+ with subpar defensive grades.

The Tigers non-tendered him instead of paying him a projected $7MM salary for his final arbitration season, and the Nats swooped in with an offer of $5MM plus $1MM of incentives. It looks like that investment will pay off handsomely for the Nats, as Candelario is having a bounceback season. He’s hitting .261/.337/.478 (118 wRC+) and his defensive grades are much stronger. With so few sellers and a pitching-heavy free agent class this coming winter, Candelario should be one of the most sought-after position players in the weeks to come.

Carl Edwards Jr.

Edwards, 31, missed much of the 2019-2021 period due to injuries and had to settle for a minor league deal with the Nationals prior to the 2022 season. He made it to the big league club in May of last year and posted a 2.76 ERA in 62 innings the rest of the way. He likely benefited from a .259 batting average on balls in play and 83.6% strand rate, but his peripherals were around league average.

The Nationals tendered him a contract for 2023, agreeing to a $2.25MM arbitration salary. He’s been solid this year, with a 3.69 ERA in 32 appearances. His 16.9% strikeout rate and 12% walk rate aren’t exciting, but he has a 46% ground ball rate and has allowed just one home run all year. He isn’t likely to fetch a ton as a rental reliever with worrying peripherals, but he’s fairly cheap and bullpen help is always in demand. He’s been on the injured list almost three weeks due to shoulder inflammation, however, so his health will be a clear factor in his market.

Corey Dickerson

Dickerson is a 34-year-old veteran who signed a one-year, $2.25MM deal with incentives in the offseason. The Nats were surely hoping he could serve as a veteran mentor to their younger players and perhaps play his way into being a deadline trade chip. Unfortunately, he’s hitting just .248/.278/.358 on the year for a wRC+ of 69. As a veteran left-handed hitter, he might get interest based on his track record, but the return would likely be mild even if he gets hot in the next few weeks.

Signed/Controlled For One Extra Year

Dominic Smith

Smith, 28, was a similar bounceback play to the Candelario signing. In 2019 and 2020 with the Mets, he hit .299/.366/.571 for a wRC+ of 150 but followed that up by hitting .233/.298/.345 over the next two years for an 82 wRC+. The Mets non-tendered him, and the Nats signed him to a one-year deal with a $2MM salary and $2MM in incentives.

Unfortunately, this deal hasn’t worked out nearly as well as the Candelario one. Smith is hitting .260/.328/.340 (85 wRC+) while playing first base only. Given the offensive expectations of that position, that’s clearly insufficient production. He can be controlled for 2024 via arbitration but is trending towards another non-tender unless he can turn things around.

Victor Robles

Robles, 26, was once considered one of the top prospects in the league but has yet to put it all together at the big league level. He’s always had the speed and defense combo working but has continued to struggle at the plate, coming into 2023 with a career batting line of .233/.306/.359 and a 78 wRC+.

He has shown some positive developments here this year, including a 14.3% strikeout rate that’s well below his 23.9% rate in previous years. His .299/.385/.364 batting line is a bit above average, translating to a wRC+ of 111. Unfortunately, that’s come in just 36 games as he’s twice gone on the IL due to back spasms, including his current stint. He’s making $2.325MM this year with a $3.3MM club option for 2024. Even if that were turned down, he could still be retained via arbitration.

Trevor Williams

Williams, 31, was primarily a starter with the Pirates for many years but had been deployed in a swing role by the Mets in recent seasons. He signed a two-year, $13MM deal to return to a starting role with the Nationals. He has a 4.45 ERA through 18 starts, striking out 17% of opponents while walking 7.5%. That low strikeout rate has led to a 5.41 FIP and 4.95 SIERA. He’s not going to command huge interest, but a club in need of a back-end innings eater could give Washington a call.

Patrick Corbin

Corbin, 34 next week, is having a bounce back year, at least in terms of results so far. His 4.89 earned run average is an improvement over his 6.31 figure from last year and the 5.82 from the year prior. That’s come despite a 15.2% strikeout rate, which is a few ticks below the past few seasons and would be a career low. On his back-loaded contract, he’s making $24MM this year and a massive $35MM next year. Even if the Nats paid all of that down, they likely wouldn’t be able to get much back in trade.

Longer-Term Players

Lane Thomas

Thomas, 27, is perhaps the Nats’ best chance to get a significant return this summer. He’s hitting .302/.347/.497 for a wRC+ of 126. His defense is generally considered a bit below average, but he’s stolen eight bases in 10 tries this year. It could be debated as to whether Thomas or Candelario is having the better season overall, but Thomas comes with two extra seasons of arbitration control beyond this one. He’s making $2.2MM this year and would be in line for a couple of raises in the upcoming campaigns.

He’s not a lock to be moved because the Nats could hold onto him and hope to return to contention while he’s still on the club. However, his trade value will only diminish as he gets closer to free agency and more expensive. It’s certainly possible that the Nationals return to contention in the coming years, but it will be a challenge with the division featuring a stacked Atlanta club, the ascendent Marlins and aggressive-spending Mets and Phillies.

Hunter Harvey

Harvey, 28, has been a solid reliever for the club over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s made 76 appearances with a 2.86 earned run average, 28.4% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 41.2% ground ball rate. He’s continued to move into higher-leverage spots, earning 11 holds and eight saves this year. He could be retained for two more seasons via arbitration, but reliever performance is volatile and there’s always the risk of an injury. He’s making just $870K this year.

Kyle Finnegan

Finnegan, 31, is in essentially the same spot as Harvey, as he can be controlled via arbitration for two more seasons beyond this one. He has a longer track record, having established himself as a viable reliever back in 2020, but his results are less encouraging this year. His 3.38 ERA is still solid, but his strikeout rate has dropped from last year’s 26.1% to this year’s 22.4%, with his walk and ground-ball rates also moving in the wrong direction a bit. He’s making $2.325MM this year.

Tanner Rainey

Rainey, 30, is like Finnegan and Harvey in that he has two arbitration seasons after this one. But his situation is very different, as he had Tommy John surgery last August and is only now nearing a rehab assignment. Players on the injured list can still be traded, though the interest may be muted based on the uncertainty. He posted a 3.30 ERA last year with a 28.1% strikeout rate prior to going under the knife. He’s making $1.5MM this year.

Ildemaro Vargas

Vargas, 32 this weekend, has plenty of experience as a light-hitting utility player. He had a .233/.268/.355 career batting line by the end of 2021 for a wRC+ of 60 but had played every position except center field and catcher. He’s had better results at the plate since joining the Nats in August of last year, hitting .281/.310/.409 for a wRC+ of 98 in 289 plate appearances. He’s making $975K this year and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons.

Joey Meneses

Unlike the other names on this list, Meneses isn’t approaching free agency or making a significant salary. The long-time minor leaguer finally got the call to the big leagues last year at the age of 30 and mashed 13 home runs in 56 games, finishing the season with a .324/.367/.563 batting line and 156 wRC+. He was only able to accrue 65 days of service time, leaving the Nats with six years of remaining control.

His production has naturally taken a step back in 2023, as he’s hit just six home runs and is batting .284/.328/.404 for a wRC+ of 98. He’s been on a mini heater of late, as four of those six homers came in the club’s last three games before the break. The Nats could simply hang onto Meneses given that he’s not slated for arbitration until after 2025 or free agency until after 2028. However, his late-bloomer trajectory means that he’s already 31 years old and will likely be in his mid-30s by the time the club is in contention again. Perhaps the best course of action would be to cash him in for younger players now — if there’s sufficient interest in the next few weeks.

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The Nationals were the star sellers of each of the past two deadlines, flipping Scherzer and Turner two years ago and then Soto last year. They don’t have any players that could reach that level, either in terms of publicity or prospect return. However, Candelario is one of the best rentals available and should net them some decent value. If they get more aggressive and move controllable players like Thomas, Harvey and Finnegan, they could go even farther in stockpiling young talent for future seasons.

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