With Juan Soto signed and both Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger traded, some of the top outfielders still available this offseason include Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández and Jurickson Profar. Per recent reporting, Santander is looking for a five-year deal and Hernandez is looking for three. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports today that Profar is “looking for a deal in the three-year-plus range.”
Those asks are roughly in line with preseason expectations. As part of MLBTR’s annual Top 50 Free Agents post, Santander was predicted for $80MM over four years, Hernández for $60MM over three, and Profar $45MM over three.
The three players have some similarities. Each is considered a subpar defender in an outfield corner. None is particularly threatening on the basepaths. Hernández does have 83rd percentile sprint speed but has never swiped more than 12 bags in a season and might not top that now that he’s 32 years old.
But all three are above average hitters. Profar is actually coming off the strongest 2024 season of the three, but he’s been far less consistent in his career. His 2023 season was so poor that he settled for a $1MM guarantee from the Padres last offseason.
That turned into a remarkable bargain for the Friars. Profar has always had good plate discipline and that didn’t change this year, as his 15.1% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate were each a few ticks better than average. But when he made contact, he did more damage than ever before. His 24 home runs and 158 hits were both career highs. His .302 batting average on balls in play was the best of his career, but so was the quality of his contact. His average exit velocity of 91.1 miles per hour was a few ticks above his previous best of 87.5 mph. His 44.4% hard hit rate was far higher than his previous personal best of 34.3%.
The overall result was a .280/.380/.459 batting line and a 139 wRC+, indicating he was 39% better than league average. Hernández and Santander had a 134 and 129 wRC+ this year, respectively. Profar’s defense wasn’t graded strongly but he did add ten steals this year, tying a career high. Overall, FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.3 wins above replacement on the season, with Hernandez at 3.5 fWAR and Santander at 3.3.
But as mentioned, consistency has not been Profar’s forte, something that MLBTR has covered previously. His offense has seesawed between below and above average in alternating years, dating back almost a decade now. Starting from 2017 and going to the present, his wRC+ numbers have been 36, 107, 90, 113, 87, 110, 78 and 139. Hernández had a dip with Seattle in 2023 but has otherwise been in the 130-145 range from 2020 to the present. Santander has been between 119 and 129 in three straight seasons now.
There’s some risk in taking a three-year bet on Profar, hence the lower predicted contract. But if the Statcast data points to any kind of real change in approach and the contracts end up roughly in the predicted areas, then he has a chance at being the best investment of the three.
Profar’s market has been relatively quiet thus far. He and the Padres each desire a reunion but he hasn’t been connected to any other clubs. The mutual interest between him and the Friars isn’t surprising. San Diego’s president of baseball operations A.J. Preller clearly has an affinity for Profar. Preller was working for the Rangers when that club signed Profar as an amateur and has since signed Profar to the Padres many times. After Profar had an unsuccessful sojourn with the Rockies, he spoke openly of how happy he was to eventually return to San Diego.
However, the financial situation might stand in the way of another reunion. RosterResource projects the Padres for a payroll of $210MM next year, well beyond their 2024 payroll of $169MM. It’s been reported that they need to get trim that projection down, probably closer to their 2024 number. That’s led to rumors of players like Dylan Cease, Luis Arráez and others being available in trades, so signing Profar to a notable three-year deal is hard to see at the moment.
Teams like the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Dodgers and Yankees have been connected to Hernández and Santander this winter and it stands to reason that they would have at least some interest in Profar as well. The Astros, Reds, Pirates, Royals and other clubs are logical fits for corner outfield help.
Come to the Yankees 3/36 and play LF. Let’s go Profar
Spend some money Kutsenda.
If Profar is too rich for your liking the Padres are truly in dire straits.
#punting25
MLBTR predicted 3/45M…don’t act like Profar’s agent doesn’t know how much NYY bid on Soto.
Average hitter overall who plays lousy defense. Yankees are better off re-signing Verdugi who likely would agree to one year with a player option. Don’t be fooled by Profar’s 24 season.
The Padres could really use Profar. He fits in well here. 2/30 with a 15million option or a 5 millikn dollar buyout.
Having Profar and Bellinger hitting in front of Judge would be nice.
I wanted the Yanks to go after him but would prefer 2 years and maybe an option with a buyout like @YankeeClipper below mentioned. He’s a good fit although his glove is lacking. Maybe sign Jason Heyward to be the 4th OF, late inning replacement.
They already signed Grisham for the 4th OFer. At this point I would rather pivot to the Profar/Walker/Arenado (or even Santana) types instead of Bregman, Santandar or Alonso. Keep the offensive commitments short unless someone like Tucker is available.
I’m good. I don’t trust his consistency at all. He’s the fall backiest of options as far as I’m concerned.
An average Jasson Dominguez is Jurickson Profar. Let the kid play. Not interested.
Pivoting to Profar would make Bellinger the primary 1Bman. Having a Walker or Santana at 1b might be a better fit but Belli hasn’t played more than 100 games in the OF the last 2 years.
@Damn
he wouldn’t be blocking JD. Just pushes Belli to 1b.
We’ll see Profar again in Padre brown in 2028 for $1M
No thanks
I’m surprised he hasn’t signed yet
You want three; will you take two and an option with a buyout?
Reminds me of Chris Rock in “I’m Gunna Get You Sukka”
“How much for just one rib?”
And asking for a pour of soda in your palm
“Just po’ it in mah hand…”
Gooood LAWD that’s a lotta money.
How much for one rib?
One order of ribs?
Naw, jus’ one rib. I shawl is hungra!
Classic!
This just in- Jurickson Profar’s market is dryer than Death Valley!
Preller and Profar are a dynamic duo and he does best as a Padre, he might come back with you guys!
Preller just might bend the knee and propose already… lol
Would love Pro back, but 3yrs is silly imo! Good for him if he gets it
3 years isn’t the problem, it’s the money.. how low can the san diego discount go? 3/27?
agree. this is most likely outcome, or atl or tor give him around 15 mil to ‘prove it’.
Absolutely can’t see the Dodgers or Profar wanting to line up on a deal. Definitely some bad blood between both sides and he’s not the kind of player the Dodgers prioritize. If they’re going to roll the dice on a subpar defender, it’ll be Teo
I think y’all are happy with Conforto playing the role, but idks…
Haha, fair! Conforto is a questionable signing, but his batted ball metrics look interesting. And he’s an average fielder as opposed to arguably one of the worst starting outfielders in baseball defensively. Profar has one amazing year. If he’s truly unlocked his potential, 3 yrs/45 is a steal. But idk if that was smoke and mirrors and some good luck. Plus, post all star break his OPS was 76 points lower. He faded in the 2nd half.
Fo sho
Go home Profar, you’re drunk
Not having the QO attached, he can probably get the 3yrs.
Jerkson had a 3 year deal with the pads at one point in time and decided to opt out after 2 years….
I would go ahead and assume he will provide his average production- that is to say, around 1.2 WAR with 16 HR’s and neutral value defense.
That’s worth about $12M.
I’d give him 1 year $12.5M w/ a $2.5M buyout on a 1 year $15.5M player option and a 2 years/$32.5M club option.
Come on down to Atlanta!
3 years 33 million or so is probably fair.
92 ops+ over 3,600 career plate appearances prior to this season. buyer beware
His walk and K rates are pretty good. Is he a good fielder?
As a padres fan o have watched him play a million games in left field and he is perfectly fine. Range isn’t the best but he catches the ball and once in a while makes a great play.
Grades as a little under avg but he seems pretty avg. I’d be fine with him playing left again for the padres.
@Simm thx. Did he ever play in the infield for the Padres? Yankees need a 2B/3B…
He can play some first but throwing issues took away him playing second.
Ok thx Simm. He’s a very interesting player, I like his profile. His underlying stats back up his actual stats. Would be nice to have a player like him. Position wise he’s versatile, so you can move him around… I don’t expect DJ, Stanton or Jazz to stay healthy all year long.
@Bronx. Profar played 2B (ok there) and SS (not great) back in the day, but won’t likely ever again.
Agree. Switch hitter, takes good AB’s, sees a lot of pitches, has a little pop, plays adequate D, and plays with a spark for this group
Dude whiffed 101 times last year. Is that considered “pretty good” in this day and age? Help me.
I would call a BB% of 11.4 with a K% of 15.1 pretty good, yes. Just 16 players had a lower K%.
@Letitbe: Yes, it is. With the average fastball up 6-8 mph over the last 20 years, a 15% whiff rate is outstanding.
Soto got 700 mill whiffing 119 times
Go get him nick krall ! He will be your best bad signing yet and fair well on this reds team and in that park.
I was wondering if I was the only one thinking this, we need disciplined hitters grinding abs or moving the chains.
The Rockies thought the same thing
Don’t ever sign a past end the of January. It’s an epic fail more times than not. He went from most hitter friendly to least hitter friendly field yet put up his best season. He never found his rhythm in Colorado bc he showed up after ST started
“It’s been reported that they need to get trim that projection down…”
They keep saying that as if it will somehow make it true, even though Kutsenda, Greupner, and Preller have all said basically the same thing. “We would like to be closer to 2024 than to 2023, but the goal is winning. If the right player comes along we are willing to stretch that” – Eric Kutsenda
Is Profar the player you stretch it for? I don’t think so.
Acee schmacee
Heyman reports the Blue Jays are preparing to finish as the runner up with compelling offer.
Rumor has it, he’s on a plane to Toronto now.
Pro, as fans we would love to have you back in America’s Greatest City. As a businessman, I would not be willing to pay you more than $12 million per on a 2 year deal if it was my money. 2 yrs/$24 million with mutual option for $15 million. I think that is still a bit high considering how inconsistent you have been for the Padres, but willing to go that high because of VAR.
The Yankees signing Profar to play LF would make Alex Verdugo look like prime Andruw Jones.
Hope someone give him a $20 million one year deal, then he sucks, gets DFA’d and then comes back to SD on the minimum and crushes again.
That is far more likely than someone giving him more than 10 million a season for 3 years.
He has played first and second base in the past. I wonder if any teams are looking at him for those positions.
His best position is DH.
He plays a passable LF and very decent 1B. Do not advise 2B!
Thank you. I’d been wondering if the Twins could use him as an Alex Kirilloff replacement at LF/1B. But not at these prices
We have heard this before somewhere….
Getting a three year deal on a car lease right now has some good deals if that’s what he’s looking for. I can’t imagine a baseball team giving him 3 years to play for them unless it is in some other league besides MLB. A man can dream though.
Wonder if a team offers 3 years 10-12 million total he would sign? After settling for 1 million. If no one offers 3 /45 that is. His 2024 numbers are worth more but over his career not so much.. wonder if he would take the security over $ amount
I think he’d be better off taking a one year deal for literally any amount, prove that 2024 wasn’t a fluke rebound year and then go for 2-3 years at a larger amount.
I’m trying to remember examples of this, but I know there have been players who like, did their 7 years pre-Free Agency, got a 3-4 year deal for whatever – lets say 4 years/$50M – and then their production and reliability disappeared, they took a minor league deal, did okay, got another shot for like $1.5M, did well again, got 1 year/$6M, did even better, got 1 year/$15M, regressed, still managed to get another 1 year/$4M, etc. all from not giving up when they had to settle for a minor league or virtually league minimum deal when it seemed like their career might be over and they turn it into another 5 years/$27M or whatever.
I think Profar is that type, who will hang around and see his salary yo-yo if he keeps trying.
Profar and Kim might be good fits for the Yanks, They need a lead off man, and need the versatility The 3 years are not that much of a commitment!
Which Kim? SD Kim with the shoulder surgery, or new Kim that is being posted?
Haven’t heard any national or local media connecting them, but warming up to the idea as the options becoming seemlngly limited. The Phillies need an OF bat, especially one that hits lefties well. Profar had a .885 OPS from the right side last year. The fact he can play 2B is a bonus, as the Phillies tend to give Stott his off days against LHP’s. He’s 31, 3/50 could end up being a good investment. Think Jake Meyers would be a good option if available. Dalton Varsho or Luis Robert would also be huge upgrades if the price didn’t include one of the Phils big 3 prospects.
Another smilin’ dancin’ peacock
If Teo isn’t getting 3 yrs, Profar for sure isnt
Royals should sign Profar, his alternating good years/bad years reminds me of Eric Hosmer.
And I’m seeking a date with Ariana Grande. Good luck, Jurickson!
Weird to admit you look at 10yo boys like that.
I agree. I think his bat would play well in Kauffman. His LF defense is no worse than MJ Melendez who we’ve stashed out there for 2 years.
That said, 3/45 ain’t happening. That’s way overvalued. That’s estimating 5.6 bWAR over the 3 years.
He’s a career 8.4 bWAR player with most of that tied to his 2024 performance. He was a 4.8 bWAR player over his first 10 seasons.
Profar’s case is not unlike that of Mike Moustakas in 2018. His value to a squad comes with considerable risk – and that lowers his payday considerably. In 2018, Moustakas was coming off a season in which he hit 38 homers – setting a new Royals season record. But no one thought he could repeat that. Moustakas ended up signing a 1 year deal for 6.5MM + 2.2MM in incentives. The Royals traded him later that year to the Brewers. The Reds then signed him to a horrible contract 4/65 MM.
I doubt many executives believe Profar will produce 4.4 offensive WAR again. The Royals shouldn’t take the bait either. Profar should be offered nothing more than 1-2 year deals and they should be totally incentive based. Give him $5MM to show up and an additional $5MM if he hits.
Averaged 3.1 WAR in 2022 & 2024, both of which were seasons heading into free agency. Averaged 0.2 WAR in his ten other full seasons (not averaging in his injury missed 2014).
Coming off a hot 31 year old season? Some name recognition? A position player? Check. Check. Check! This guy has a long term overpay contract offer from my Angels almost guaranteed!
Yes it’s a fact that he did well in 2024 but it’s a fluke, won’t happen again. That’s also a fact.
I liken him to Candelario last year and we know how that turned out.
Profar once almost killed me with a foul ball. Missed my face by inches.
The only thing that stops a bad guy with a foul ball is a good guy with a beer.
Take all 3 for same price as Soto.
If I was Washington, I would jump on this…just to keep him from smashing them, like he has, in the past. Last year he assaulted the Nationals.
Well if SD signed him for 3/39 It would kinda be like a 4/40 when you add in last year 1 for million then it honestly doesn’t look too bad. Kinda look at as him getting a bonus for playing well last year. It’s a fit for both SD and Profar they both might as well take advantage of this marriage.
Yeah 4/40m structured something like that with an opt out or 3 sounds good to me.
His baseball savant page gives one hope that he made some serious changes in 2024 and I’d imagine a chunk of it sticks.
Him and Merrill and Arraez were the three components that made the 2024 team so much better than the 2023 team and all are above average to elite in contact and avoiding striking out. I would try to keep that together in 2025.
That is 100% a lie. He’s probably the Padres most popular player in the clubhouse, and Manny, Tatis, Preller, and multiple other players have said so.
Santander > Hernández > Profar
Profar 31y has not proven he will be consistent he played his best last season, before that he was going team to team trying to find a niche where they hoped he would turn out.
3 years —nah I would think he needs a “prove-it” again season – therefore he should hope to find a hitters park to help his stats figures.
Seems to ramp up during contract time.
Dude raked at Petco this year and sucked at Coors the year prior. Then you have Nick Martinez going from Petco to Great American and slashing his homerun allowed rate.
I guess Profar should avoid rockies.
Your sources are garbage. Popular guy. Team wants him back but there is a stranglehold on the post-Peter checkbook.
2024 was an outlier year for Profar…he is a career .245 hitter, he is not fast at all and his 10 SB were a result of the two-disengagement rule. his arm is average at best and his up tick in HR (24) was an anomaly He will regress to his norm and below in 2025,2026 and 2027 and with that in mind…2025 (13 million with 5 million deferred), 2026 (11 million with 3 million deferred) and 2027 ( 10 million with 3 million deferred) club option with 1.5 million buyout.
The deferral option works to his advantage because after he reverts back to his norm, he will be hard pressed to get more than 3-4 million on any contract past 2027 with 1-2 million most likely and it becomes a very nice retirement package and it works for the Padres because it helps keep them under the luxury tax.
2 years – 24 million with 8 million deferred or 3 years – 34 million with 11 million deferred.
I’ve said it before that FA is a game of musical chairs and when the music stop players will be scrambling for a job…Profar knows this all too well when he chose to opt out of his contract with the Padres a few years ago.
-Profar is just as likely to hit .230 with 11 HR as he is to turn in a decent season – terribly inconsistent which makes him a bad bet
-Santander, like Profar had an unusually good season prior to free agency. Which might help their cause but a prudent organization will look at all their seasons up until this point. I also see Santander going the Joey Gallo route. Big sluggers with low batting averages don’t usually stay productive long.
-IMHO, of these three, Teoscar Hernandez for 3 years is the best bet
Someone offer 3 years $10 million. What he gonna say, no?
Ummbyeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
I think that’s fair. He is decent enough to ask for that.
Don’t worry about Cincinnati reds doing anything all they do is pass rumors after a player either signs or traded that they were in on them. Castelli won’t spend money. He’s had team for 20+ years and hasn’t tried to win. Runs to make profit. Been an fan since I was 5 and really wish he would sell the team.
Pass on Profar unless he wants to take a reasonable 1 year deal with club options for further years.
AJ loves his ex Texas Rangers guys..
I think one these 3 go to the Astros. They need a corner outfielder and all 3 meet their contractual length restrictions. after that, offload the Pressly contract and revisit Arenado.
Profars career is dog poo since his time in Texas this one off and uptick in power only says steroids to me lol hope he doesn’t sign with the Jays