Mets Sign Griffin Canning

The Mets finalized the signing of right-hander Griffin Canning to a one-year free agent deal. The Wasserman client is reportedly guaranteed $4.25MM and could make an additional $1MM via incentives. Canning would unlock $250K bonuses for reaching 22, 25, 28 and 31 starts. The Mets had four open roster spots, so no corresponding move was necessary.

This will technically be Canning’s third team of the offseason. The Angels dealt him to the Braves in a one-for-one swap for Jorge Soler within hours of the trade market reopening. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed out at the time, Canning wasn’t a lock to stick in Atlanta for more than a few weeks. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a $5.1MM salary in his final season of arbitration eligibility. The Braves balked at that price and non-tendered him, affirming that the trade was about shedding the final two years of Soler’s contract.

That made Canning a free agent for the first time in his career. The 28-year-old heads to Queens and should compete for a rotation job. Canning has over five years of service time and cannot be sent to the minors without his consent. He’ll be on the MLB roster in some capacity, though it’s possible he’ll be pushed into long relief to open the year.

A second-round pick out of UCLA in 2017, Canning immediately became one of the Angels’ better pitching prospects. He profiled as a quick-moving college arm who had a chance to land in the middle of the rotation. Canning reached the big leagues within two years, but he’s had an up-and-down career. He posted a 4.58 earned run average over 90 1/3 innings as a rookie. His best season came during the shortened 2020 schedule, as he turned in a 3.99 ERA through 11 starts.

That remains Canning’s only sub-4.00 showing. Opponents tagged him for a 5.60 ERA across 14 MLB appearances in 2021, leading the Halos to option him to Triple-A. He landed on the injured list almost immediately with a stress reaction in his lower back. That carried into the following year and cost him the entire 2022 season.

At the time, it looked as if injuries could derail his career. The back was the most severe, but he’d also battled recurring elbow soreness early in his career. Canning has fortunately managed to stay mostly healthy over the last two seasons. He landed on the injured list twice in 2023, though both were minimal stints related to minor leg issues. Canning avoided the IL entirely this year. His effectiveness has waned, however.

Canning pitched to a 4.32 ERA across 127 innings two seasons ago. This year was a struggle, as he allowed 5.19 earned runs per nine over a career-high 171 2/3 frames. His strikeout rate plummeted to a personal-low 17.6%, more than eight points south of the previous year’s 25.9% clip. The walks ticked up a couple points while his swinging strike percentage dipped from 12.8% to a league average 11% rate.

The stuff also took a slight step backwards. Canning averaged 93.4 MPH on his four-seam fastball this season, a tick below the prior season’s 94.7 MPH mark. Opponents teed off on that pitch, connecting on 16 homers with a .529 slugging percentage. Canning features a fairly typical four-pitch mix (fastball, changeup, slider, curveball) and has intermittently looked like a fourth starter. The Mets will try to help him find that form more consistently.

Canning becomes the third potential starter whom the Mets have added via free agency. They went to the middle of the market for upside plays on Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes, the latter of whom will stretch into rotation work after six seasons as a full-time reliever. Canning doesn’t have the same ceiling — hence the far lower price tag — but aligns with New York’s seeming preference for stockpiling depth.

Montas, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, and Holmes should all be in the Opening Day rotation. Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn would vie for the fifth starter job as things stand. The Mets could prefer to run a six-man rotation. Senga was limited to one regular season start this year by injury. They’ll need to closely monitor Holmes’ workload so he doesn’t fatigue. Blackburn finished 2024 on the IL and underwent a postseason spinal surgery that could delay him in Spring Training.

The Mets could use at least another mid-rotation arm to solidify that group. They’ve stayed in contact with Sean Manaea since he declined their qualifying offer. Various reports have cast them as a long shot to land Corbin Burnes, but The Athletic tied them to Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta (each of whom remains unsigned) during the Winter Meetings. Adding another starter would allow the Mets to push at least one of Canning, Megill or Blackburn into a multi-inning relief role.

RosterResource calculates New York’s salary commitments and competitive balance tax number around $255MM. Owner Steve Cohen has been comfortable pushing their CBT number well beyond $300MM in previous years. There’s little reason for him to pull back now that they’ve landed Juan Soto. For now, they remain in the lowest tier of luxury tax penalization. They’re taxed at a 50% rate on spending between $241MM and $261MM, so the tax hit on Canning is $2.125MM. That brings the investment to $6.375MM before incentives.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Mets were signing Canning to a $4.25MM deal with $1MM in bonuses. The Associated Press reported the incentive specifics.

Image courtesy of Imagn.