The Padres have been among the quietest teams in baseball this winter, which is unusual given that president of baseball operations AJ Preller is one of the most aggressive front office executives in the sport. The club’s inaction this winter has largely been informed by reports of significant payroll constraints, but Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported last night that those constraints might not be quite as stringent as once believed. While the club was previously thought to be angling towards lowering its 2025 payroll to something closer to the $169MM level they ran with in 2024, Acee now reports that the club plans to carry a payroll in or around the league’s top 10 for this season.
San Diego’s payroll currently ranks ninth in the sport at $208MM according to RosterResource, although some clubs on the outside of the top 10 such as the Cubs, Red Sox, Giants, and Angels are rumored to be involved in the markets of significant free agents like Alex Bregman, Jack Flaherty, and Pete Alonso who would likely catapult any of them into the top ten if signed. Even so, it stands to reason that the Padres are at least somewhat unlikely to increase payroll beyond its current level, a thought that Acee more or less confirms by noting that the club does not appear to be able to add payroll without first making room in the budget elsewhere.
That’s not necessarily exciting news for Padres fans, given the club’s clear needs at catcher, in the rotation, in left field, and at DH. It’s a lot of holes for Preller to try and plug without increasing payroll, and that’s led the Padres to listen to offers on key pieces such as Luis Arraez, Dylan Cease, and Robert Suarez this winter. While trading any of those players would create another hole on the roster, the return package combined with the payroll flexibility created by moving salary could allow San Diego to come out ahead on those moves as they did when they shipped Juan Soto to the Yankees last winter.
That makes the club’s plan to carry a payroll in or around the top ten potentially game changing for the front office. When the club was believed to be operating under a mandate to cut payroll, it seemed as though the Padres may have to execute multiple trades in order to make even modest additions via free agency. Now, however, it appears any dollars freed up by any trades they make can be reinvested directly back into the roster. That should make trading a high-end player like Cease much easier to turn into a net positive for the roster overall than it would have been if the club was forced to rely entirely on the return package for upgrades. It could also make the possibility of dumping a contract like that of Jake Cronenworth more attractive for the front office even in the event they’re unable to secure a significant return, as the roughly $11.3M is slated to earn in 2025 could then be spent on addressing more critical needs.
What remains unclear is whether or not the Padres are willing to exceed the first luxury tax threshold this year after avoiding the tax last season. San Diego is currently just over the first $241MM threshold with a projected payroll of roughly $243MM for CBT purposes. Preller has shown a willingness to get creative with his additions in order to lower a player’s AAV for luxury tax purposes in the past, and it’s certainly feasible to imagine the Padres finding a way to sneak under that first threshold while maintaining a similar or even identical payroll in terms of actual dollars spent. Moving a pricey arbitration level player like Cease or Arraez would be particularly valuable if ducking under the luxury tax is a goal, as their one-year salaries count fully against the luxury tax while even a similarly-priced free agent could be signed to a more complicated contract structure that offers San Diego additional wiggle room.
Top 10 but cutting like everyone else not named the Dodgers….
No the payroll is just bloated by Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, and Hosmer Contracts.
Hosmer is 13 million, and its the last year of that contract. Bogaerts probably has the worst contract, as he is abput a league average player.
True. But Hosmer hasn’t played in nearly two years. That Bogaerts deal was a true stinker.
Tatis and Machado are relatively cheap in ’25, their deals go up to 30M+ in a year or two.
Padres might as well spend this season and go for it.
Long Beach
Tatis is a good value contract. Platinum glove and elite bat with speed on the bases more than offsets frequent injuries.
Tarsi’s bat hasn’t been the same since before his PED suspension.
I mean Tatis’s bat hasn’t been the same since before his PED suspension. I don’t know why my phone autocorrected to “Tarsi’s.”
“I mean Tatis’s bat hasn’t been the same since before his PED suspension.”
so what your saying is he was better when he was using performance enhancing drugs … interesting.
Many many players do. Just not steroids, the effects of which are too obvious.
Tatis had an OPS over 930 in the three seasons before his PED suspension. Not even close to 900 since his suspension.
The suspension was after labrum surgery on his shoulder. Most players are never the same after it. Bellinger. Tatis. Now Yoshida for us. I have been surprised at how good Tatis has been since that surgery.
If you go read fangraphs report on this prior to the suspension but after the shoulder surgery. That has pretty good data on his stats likely declining because of this injury.
Now a couple of years after the surgery they usually start to regain their power. Prettt sure Tatis showed when healthy on the post season the power is coming back. This will be the first full offseason that he will be able to work on strength building. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a monster year.
Simm, for your sake I hope you are right. Back in the 70s and 80s that injury was a career ender. Even now most players never return to the same level like former MVP Bellinger. That is why I was so against the Red Sox going after Kim in free agency this year. Its why I think that we should dump Yoshida.
That said, Tatis was still a very good player last season. If that level of play with a return to the defense he played in 2023 is all you guys get, that is still better than most teams have in RF including my Red Sox.
I wonder if Tatis dad wax a juicer too? Ohh excuse me ringworm removal user.
To be fair, Tatis Jr has been injured a lot.
His OPS was 833 last year.
Other things could be affecting it too like trying for more home runs and less walks etc..
How good do you think Tatis was? He’s been pretty great since after the PED bust
Just look at his OPS pre-suspension and after. I did forget about his surgery.
He also had two wrist surgeries.
Give the dude some time to see if he comes all the way back .
“Ringworm medication” suspension
Wasn’t the Hosmer contract dumped on the Red Sox? They sent the money to pay it, but isn’t that on the Sox payroll now?
Red Sox only cover the league min. Padres have been on the hook for 12m+ since then. He will finally drop of after this next season.
Simm – Sox fans would prefer to not be reminded.
Over $2M for just 50 Hosmer PA’s … yet another example of wasted Red Sox payroll dollars.
Incorrect. The Padres kept the Hosmer contract, something most of their employees still discuss more than at least every other day.
$724,000 for Hosmer. That is all we paid. Padres paid the rest.
Baseball – Nope, check Spotrac or articles like this:
google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/boston/news/e…
Exactly right. They are way too top heavy and have too many holes to seriously compete without spending more than they are willing. Really doubt Peter Seidler intended this. Anyway, Petco is a great place to drink $16 beers outdoors with friends.
Top ten is is way behind # 1
Yes only 160m short of the dodgers.
As is most of BB.
And when the Padres out-spent 27 other teams in 2023, I don’t remember any remorse by the SD fans.
Top ten is ahead of the Red Sox, despite the latter being in a larger media market.
This does align more with what the padres front office has stated. That they are in a good financial position.
I still believe they will likely duck under the tax line. I am not a cba expert but maybe someone here can confirm what I heard what is this.
The padres are considered a small market team. Which entitled them to revenue sharing. Even though they a from a revenue standpoint a revenue payer. I was told they get an exemption from being a payer but have to below the tax line.
Which really makes no sense that you are going to penalize a small market team for spending money. Which every team wants their team to do.
Anyone able to clarify how this all works?
All teams contribute a percentage of their local revenue into a single pool which is then divided up equally among all teams. If a team pays more than it gets back, that team is considered a payer, while a team that gets back more than it pays is considered a payee
All the CBA determines is the rate of local revenue that teams pay in
* Local revenue = merch, tickets, local media rights, etc
Yeah I’m aware of that but I also saw someone say that the padres were designated as a small market team. That they were exempt from having to be a tax payer as long as they stayed below the tax.
That they get some form of a credit back even though they are a revenue payer via the event they have created…above avg.
Not sure how that works or if it’s even true.
Ez, MLB licensed merch is not part of local revenue.
Think about it. There are teams out there that keep 52% of their local revenue plus 3.3% they get back from the pool and have costs including payrolls so low, they still make a sizeable profit. They do get equal shares of national TV revenue, but really. Seattle is one of the worst at trying to actually win. Cheap owner.
Padres are a small but affluent market team.
Mid-level evaluation. About the same as Milwaukee and Baltimore.
*valuation.
Market size is usually determined by tv market size. Which the padres are near the bottom.
I rarely enjoy Kevin Acee’s reporting because he often makes it about him, and contains a lot of shock appeal, but I really did appreciate his piece this morning in the Union Tribune. So many in San Diego are on a sky-is-falling bandwagon, and I commend Acee for bringing the status of the team to reality; it’s a very good team still committed to winning.
I think it’s just hard to accept that when literally the one team we don’t want to see get better has double the payroll and has actively tried to get better, where from a fans perspective, the Padres haven’t done anything except talk about trading their best players, then of course the lawsuit.
Not saying the sky is falling, but it’s hard for me to get excited right now
I do get that damascusj
After last year’s late roster construction I’ll give AJP till OD before I get too alarmed.
Currently #9 lol
9 is a pretty good spot for a team with no tv contract.
It’s just a clickbaity way of saying that they plan to keep payroll right @ where it is now.
I don’t think SDP is incredibly “cheap” they just have too much money tied up to guys on the payroll right now & without adding more—they have to get creative to plug up their holes. Which is basically what I’ve thought for months now.
Who’s is fine. The issue was if they were going to lower it.
As the article states this puts them in a good sell and buy spot.
They can now trade a player, fill a hole or two via that trade then spend the money saved in that trade to fill another hole or two. This will allow them to fill out the roster more evenly vs trade and save.
Right. Because anybody they get back for Cease, Arraez, Suarez or any of the underwater contracts (Boegarts, Cronenworth, Darvish) will play for FREE! That’s how the Pobres will backfill their roster with free agents that DO require compensation. Brilliant! In AJ we trust!!!
I think the idea would be to get pre-arb or prospects back. At or below league minimum. With Arraez, Suarez and Cease totaling almost $38 M in payroll, a return of league minimum players creates savings and space to acquire a little more salary
The Padres and AJ Preller created their own problem by “jumping the gun” with large,unnecessary free agent contracts.
Consider, if the Padres had not traded with the Nats for Soto.
The players the Padres gave up for 1 1/2 years of Soto would fill all the “holes” the Padres claim to have except for Catcher:
1B Luke Voit
SS C.J. Abrams
LHP MacKenzie Gore
OF Robert Hassell III
OF James Wood
RHP /CLOSER Jarlin Susana
Padres would have had no need to sign/pay Xander Bogaerts 27M per year.
McKenzie Gore instead of Dylan Cease.
Seth Lugo could have been retained for 15M per year.
Other pitching deals could have been made without trading the Padres future core of young, cost controlled future stars
Sosaki may have been more inclined to sign with the Padres if they had this younger, exciting, cost controlled roster.
If not, then the Padres would have the money to upgrade the rotation including Flaherty.
The 2nd Machado extention was unnecessary and it would not have happened if the Padres had not given Bogaerts that foolish contract.
With the money saved, the Padres could have signed or traded for another catcher
there was no reason to sign bogaerts in the first place soto or not. They had machado kim with tatis and merrill on the way either back or coming up and even cronenworth im sure could have filled in there.
They were trying to add another bat. Missed out of turner and judge, Xander was the next best bat. They felt like at the time they were one bat away from winning it all.
Still crazy that the 2023 team didn’t make the playoffs. If they replaced that season a 100 times over again my guess is they make the playoffs like 75% of the time.
2-12 in extra innings alone would likely never repeat itself.
You lost me when you failed to recognize that the Nats trade was for Soto AND Bell – who at the time was one of the hottest items in that years trade deadline.
Then, you failed to recognize what the Padres received BACK from trading Soto.
Then, you considered RH III as a major league OFer which he clearly has not planned out to be.
You then failed to even lost for your argument, one key “lottery pick” pitcher who may turn out to be better than all other prospects in that trade – you can look him up.
It’s just hard for them to do nothing while the dodgers do everything, now if it was a year when the dodgers add Snell and call it a day, then the Padres inactivity is more palatable…
But with all of the dodgers moves, then watching players on the Padres go elsewhere for a pittance is hard to swallow for most
Say What?!
Your statement makes zero sense?!
1) Bell was a throw in piece.
Bell was not a consequential player for the Padres and has moved to 2 or 3 other teams since that deal.
The Padres did not even make Bell an offer to retain him.
The deal was primarily about Soto
Bell has bounced around many teams since then and is not considered a consequential player.
No offense to Bell, but he was a “throw in” so the Nats could move salary off the books.
Robert Hassell III was injured in the Nats system.
He was rated as a top OF prospect
He is now rebuilding his value in the Nats system
and could still be a starting CF in MLB.
Susanna is was a Padres farmhand who is being groomed by the Nats to be a Closer and doing quite well at it.
CJ Abrams, James Woods are top young players who who appear to be All Star quality.
McKenzie Gore LHSP is a top of the rotation starter.
.2) Padres were better off with the Players they gave up to receive Soto from the Mets
Without the Soto trade, the Padres would not have signed Bogaerts and not have given Machado the 2nd lucrative extention which was triggered by all the money they gave to Bogaerts.
That would have left plenty of money for the Padres to resign their free agent starters or sign/trade for other starters….
Yes we are all aware of the players the Padres received from the Yankees when they flipped Soto to the NYY.
It does not change my position.
I am sure the Padres would have not done the 1st Soto deal if they could get a rewind on it.
.301/.384./.493 – Bell’s stats at time of trade. Articles at time called him
“2nd most prolific hitter available at trade deadline”.
A throw in, he was not.
Gore has not in 2.5 years been anywhere near a TOR SP. a solid 3.
Look at his stats – not the hype.
Hassell – hasn’t produced – reason doesn’t matter.
CJ – wasn’t he benched at one point? He has many years of solid play ahead of him, most likely but you have to trade quality to get quality.
Wood – he could be a big man injury candidate or he could be Judge. Just have to wait and see.
That trade was rated as a very fair trade where each got what they wanted at the time it was made.
That’s all you can hope for in a trade. Trades aren’t graded with hindsight or no one would ever trade because the large majority of the teams they trade for “now” don’t win the WS. You make the trade to improve your chances.
Sports fan, Bell had a 153 OPS+ at the time of the trade. He was one of the hottest hitters in baseball and a huge part of the trade. Preller said in the presser that he was the key to the trade. Without him the Padres were not giving up that much.
Abrams has averaged 2.9 WAR/162 since the trade. He has a 99 OPS+ and his defense has been in the 1st percentile baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cj-abrams-682…, far worse than Bogaerts baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/xander-bogaer… who has been in the 66th percentile at SS.
Gore has a 4.13 ERA and has missed 4 months to injuries including all of 2022 after the trade. He is league average.since the trade. A #3-#4 starter.
With those two in the lineup the Padres don’t make the playoffs in 2022.
With Soto and Bell in the lineup they made the NLCS. \
Hassell fell out of the top 100 in 2023, was not in it in 2024, and is not in it in 2025.
Wood is continuing to strike out 30% of the time. I can count on one single finger the number of players that ever had an All Star season after striking out that much. Do you want to know his name? Joey Gallo. That is it.
I cannot find a single thing you got correct in your post. Not one thing.
You’re “entitled” to want your team to fill their holes, though, be it the Padres or any other team.
It’s crazy how many people don’t know the definition of entitled.
Joe
It means subtitles during the game, right?
MLB Top 100 exactly!!
Joe – That person is not “new” … take your name and buy a consonant to put at the end … and I don’t mean “w” as in “win” …
FPG you lost me on that one.
Joe – You must not be familiar with him, consider yourself lucky! He’s just a clown that accuses fanbases of being entitled.
Padres remain untitled
Payroll doesn’t equal a winner. Look at the Cubs. All that payroll on what ? A bunch of complimentary pieces that can’t win more than 83 regular season games. Haven’t won a playoff game in 7 yrs.
No it’s doesn’t but if you look at the teams chances of winning payroll has a lot to do with it. Especially teams with a top 10 payroll.
Spending doesn’t equal winning. It’s not debatable. If it was the rays wouldn’t have more wins in the last 12-15 years than 24/30 teams. Your argument is easily defeated by this fact. And everyone knows playoffs are a crapshoot. Everyone intelligent.
But if at the same time the Rays are the lone low payroll team that can pull it off maybe they are the exception and not the rule.
That would also explain why their FO is always being poached.
Thank you
ThatsIT?
Spending doesn’t equal winning. It’s not debatable.
=========================
Absolutely wrong. The chances of the bottom 15 spenders winning more games than the top-15 spenders might be a million-to-one.
Nearly 80% of playoff teams this century have been in the top 10 in payroll. As a general rule spending = winning. There are exceptions to the rule, but its a high correlation.
Cubs aren’t even in the top 10, doofus
It’s not enough when their team salary is doubled by another team. Baseball needs a salary cap and floor to create true parity. Don’t mix variance with parity, baseball is a high variance sport but some teams can minimize the variance by over spending. Sure the Padres are doing that to some extent but other teams can do that to an extent 28 other teams can’t and that’s a big problem.
4Roses: Wrong. What’s the definition of parity? You’re talking about equal spending, which is not, by definition, parity. That’s why capped sports have no parity. Not the NFL and not the NBA. It’s been proven for decades that there is no such thing as “true parity” created by limiting spending.
True parity is when all conditions are equal, not *only* spending. You want equality of payroll, not parity.
Parity is level of talent in players . Teams payroll is not equal because of owners and revenue . The CBT obviously don’t affect teams from going over. By 150 million .Cheap owners from not spending is the other problem.To big of a gap . Media is problem as well with DSG bankruptcy and teams scrambling
The Padres will need to fill some holes with prospects like we did with Merrill.
Some of those prospects may come via trading a guy like Cease. The current ones that are ready don’t have the highest of prospect rankings. Which just means they are more risky than a guy like Merrill.
If they trade Cease, we could probably get a LF and a 1B/DH that’s just breaking into the league and has years of control. Someone like a Kjersted, Casas, players like that.
Cease will not bring back any of those guys, or any fitting that profile.
Think more along the lines of Jared Kelenic plus a mid tier prospect. Probably a starter. Pobres need to start thinking about the future of their rotation. Who is fronting that staff in ‘27? Who from their current group is even around then?
Padres are t trading cease for Keller and a throw in. Get real, they would just keep him and QO him at the end of the season.
Musgrove will be in the last year of his deal. Darvish through 28
The $14mil that Cease will earn this year is out of the Pobres budget. That’s why they’re hoping to spread that money around to fill their many roster holes. It’s their only hope to ‘contend’ this year.
So, you get real. Keeping & QOing Cease means keeping gaping holes at C, LF, DH, 1B and in the rotation. All for the benefit of a compensatory pick?
Considering Burnes a year ago netted a 63rd overall prospect, a former top 100 prospect, and a comp balance pick Cease can easily net a top 50-100 prospect type player or a young controllable player, and change. They could also swap his salary out for a less desirable contract in the process and net some additional pieces.
But I’m of the mind padres need a retool and should trade
Cease, King, and Suarez and fill holes in rotation, LF, C, and 1B the next couple years to supplement their bigger contracts. Sucks to be in a position where you gotta shed salary but it is what it is lemonade out of lemons yada yada yadda
Cease though there’s a few options on the table
Red Sox couple deals
Casas, Fitts, Yoshidas contract, and some prospects like Perales and Dobbins for taking Yoshidas contract or
A young outfielder like Wilyer Abreu, Fitts or Perales, and Dobbins
Twins couple deals
Vasquez contract, Keaschall, Andrew Morris and then Lewis and Eeles for taking Vasquez contract or
Keaschall, Morris, and Eeles
Rangers
Rosario, Evan Carter, and a wild card like Jack Leiter but that’s me thinking padres can fix his stuff and idk if Texas trades him but
Rosario, Harris, Abimelec Ortiz, Santos seems more realistic
I really don’t think they will have to settle for bench players, like Kelenic, as the return. How about Vierling for LF and Manning for the rotation, along with an A ball prospect, for Cease.
Tigers don’t have the prospects they once had
But for cease a more realistic deal for cease is
Colton Keith to play 1B who’s kind of displaced right now with Torres signing
Justin Henry Mallory OF
Alex Faedo RHP
Ty Madden RHP
Lael Lockhart LHP
Honestly, for less than $20 million they could fill those holes. Arraez is already the in-house 1B/DH option. They could bring back Diaz to Catch, sign Verdugo to play LF and sign one of Ty France, Anthony Rizzo, or Justin Turner to play 1B/DH. Not the sexiest moves you’ll see but enough to keep the lineup competitive
I wouldn’t trade Keith even up for a rental. For a Year he will be the 1B with Torkelson being the displaced player. I would consider the other three, but Vierling provides the OF I thought SD was looking for.
I think in that scenario if you are the Tigers you swap out the A ball prospect with Torkelson. The Padres get a 1B, LF, and SP and the Tigers get a solid number 2 behind Skubal. Seems like a win for both teams
I don’t know. 6 players in the MLB top 100 prospect list just released says that they are pretty healthy there.
Of that group only Jobe and Clark are close to MLB ready which is the type of prospects Preller would want in return
Orioles: C/1B Sam Basallo, LHSP Cade Povich or RHSP Chayce McDermott and more
for Cy Young candidate RHP Dylan Cease
Jobe and Clark have nothing to do with anything. Those kind of prospects won’t be traded for anything the Padres have.
Vierling only comes with 3 years of arb. Greene is off the table obviously so Tigers best OF offer is Mallory which is a secondary Pierce along with Faedo. Madden and Lockhart are more third and fourth pieces. Still need a headliner to the deal
Keith is an option or Jung as Padres can put either at 1B and Tigers can put either at 3B. So really take your pick on that one. Signing Torres displaced someone to a reserve super utility role.
Considering Burnes a year ago netted a 63rd overall prospect
=============================
Ortiz wasn’t even ranked by BA or BP at the time of the trade.
He was ranked 63rd by mlb pipeline but that’s cool.
mlb.com/news/corbin-burnes-traded-to-orioles#:~:te….
So you’re saying they need to abandon this year and focus on the future, when guys like Manny and bogaerts aren’t getting younger… Kinda makes it hard to focus on the future I stead of the present when you have a window and it’s closing
How does it make sense to trade half of the rotation to fill holes in the other half of the rotation
Padres literally and I mean literally did this last year swapping out Wacha Lugo Snell with Cease King and Waldron Vasquez soaking up starts.
How does it make sense? Cause trading severely cheap TOR arms in their last year of arb for young controllable LF 1B C and starters who are mlb ready makes more sense than taking a QO pick long term
Would you rather have 2025 cease and a QO pick or 2025 Vasquez, 6 years of control over mlb ready LF Keaschall, RHP Morris, RHP Lewis, SS/2B Eeles?
Padres literally lost Wacha Snell Lugo Soto last year and performed better without them.
Trading guys who are in their last year of arb for mlb ready pieces isn’t abandoning the season it’s looking to compete in 2025 and beyond.
Which is why acquiring cease king and others last year wasn’t giving up last year despite losing everyone I mentioned.
Trading Cease for Vasquez Morris Lewis Keaschall and Eeles gives the padres a young controllable LF option Keaschall young controllable rotation options in Lewis and Morris an intriguing ss/2b utility option in Eeles for 6 years and a good defensive catcher for 1 year while Salas continues to develop.
I’d trade king for a big power bat to put at 1st another rotation option and pen option esp LHP
I’d trade Suarez for a near mlb ready C and some change just to have options if Salas doesn’t live up to the hype
Depends on who the return is. If it’s not better than keeping cease and the tag then you keep him.
Well if I had my wishlist
Cease to Twins for C Vasquez RHP Morris RHP Lewis OF Keaschall and ss/2b Eeles
King to Detroit for Keith or Jung 1B who I think power will come, Vierling or Mallory OF depth, RHP Faedo, RHP Madden, LHP Lockhart
Suarez to Pirates for Endy Rodriguez C to compete with Campusano I’d take David Bednar back hoping they can fix him for a closer role, RHP Harrington, Hunter Barco LHP, Mitch Jebb SS. By taking Bednar back Pirates are really only paying Suarez 10 mill this year so.
Suarez is only getting 10m this year no matter what.
My guess is what you want back those teams are going to say I to.
Simm, I think Tirso has shown that he is ready for a shot at LF / DH. Eguy, at least a utility / bench. Lockridge – 4th OF.
I’ll follow Brew’s take on the RP – there are a few guys that look ready. A trade of Suarez can be absorbed pretty easily.
Use that money saved wisely.
A backup C – not much there but in the end down on the farm but with Salas a year away, you can’t do much there. I can’t see not having a solid backup C keeping SD out of playoffs.
It isn’t like it’s as bad of a picture as some paint it. Sure would be nice to have had the $$ to add a couple of pieces.
SD is fighting for the TDL. Trade away for the future / get under CBT or maybe have internal issues resolved and add a piece for a run.
I get why people want to give Tirso a shot. My point is that his chances of success is far below say Merrill a year ago. It’s much more risky rolling him out there than Merrill.
Also LF is one of the easiest spots to fill. Especially in petco where it’s a fairly easy position to play. I’d prefer them to lesson the risk with a player that has a better chance of success than Tirso. I take any production he has had in aaa with a lot of scrutiny. I get his hard contact rate has gone up and his stance change may give him more upside. If they go into the season with him and cover the other holes I can live with it. Once again I just find it as an easy spot to fill, similar to the DH spot.
We do need a back up or starting catcher. For a year or even long since Salas isn’t going to catch 140 games when he is up his first year. We do need to remember we lived with campy as catcher for a lot of the season last year so we can make do with him plays a decent amount still. He also isn’t going to be any worse than last year. We can add a guy like Diaz and I’d feel good enough about it.
Starting pitching is the area I’m most concerned about.
I also agree with you about Suarez. I think the place the padres have the most depth in is the pen. Plus it’s the most volatile position in the league. Save his 10m, get something useful back then use that money to fill a hole like catcher. Perhaps even a bench piece like Pham or Peralta, especially if they are going to go with Tirso. I’d feel better if they have a vet in case Tirso doesn’t pan out.
Not backup catcher. A starting catcher. Campusano is statistically one of the worst catchers. Especially on defense.
In today’s game there isn’t much difference between a starting and back up catcher. Maybe a game a week. They may need two catchers.
I’d like to see a couple of months of fully healthy Campy before I give up on him. Even if he can’t fill a starting C spot, he can back up / DH so there is a spot on the 2025 team that he needs to fill.
Trade Suarez and get either a 1b, C, 4 SP or LF. Use money to fill another.
Plug in prospects or if enough cash left over, Peralta or JD Martinez is still out there – depending on what you previously filled.
Not a bad 2025 scenario considering the lack of funds available.
Long- yeah I totally agree and see this is the likely plan.
Which is no where near the doom and fire sale predictions!
Might even trade Arreaz for more prospect capital / savings depending on what comes back on Suarez trade.
Ornelas cant do much more to show he deserves a shot, and graduating at least one guy a year would be a big step forward. Him and Eguy will bring some energy to this team imo.
I think the bullpen will feature at least one conversion into a 6th starter, but I dont have an issue rolling with Waldron and Vazquez with 4/5 – maybe Brito beats one of them out in ST.
One trade I could see is packaging Cease, Xander, and Suarez to Boston to drastically change the current payroll scenario.
In today’s game the most important thing a catcher can do is catch. Campusano is not that. He is 2nd string at best. Not an everyday guy. This is their number 1 priority.
In Campusano’s 74 starts they went 45-29. That was good for a .608 winning %.
Exactly, people act like campy didn’t play last year. To go along with he will almost certainly be better this year. His stupid stance change screed him up as a hitter.
Padres have those in LF with Ornelas and on the bench in Rosario. They need a catcher.
Entitlement of Padre fans?
I’m a lifelong Dodger fan and I’m not understanding what you mean. How are Padre fans entitled? How did they gain that? On what do.you (or they) base that on? I’m into my 5th decade of watching baseball and sadly the Padres are one of the most hapless franchises of all time. They have no swagger or cache. They have two World Series appearances and have a record of 1-8 in those appearances. Sure, they have boosted their payroll in recent years, but it hasn’t translated to playoff success. Padre fans are the furthest thing from entitled that there is. Of course, I say this despite never having actually met a Padre fan in my life. Petty sure you’d have to go to San Diego to actually find one. No…..a Padre fan is to be pitied.
When will then be now?
Haha yeah I don’t see/get the entitlement thing. As a lifelong Pads fan I know there were baseball fans that didn’t know the padres existed until about 2018, same with the media. We’ve been keeping the faith through the Chris Denorfia leadoff years and the Seth Smith cleanup years, so most of us are just excited when our team does anything. Tasting a deep playoff run has filled us with hope, not entitlement. But we do want our team to improve, sue us.
When they beat LA out in the playoffs this year I’m sure someone will happily remind you of your post.
And when they don’t even get in the playoffs, who will remind you of your post?
Probably you. P.S. Freddie couldn’t tie Gibby’s shoes;)
I;ve been a Dodgers fan since the 1960’s.. I guess you havent been watching the Padres over the last 5 or so years if you claim they have no swagger. In fact, most Dodger fans are tired of all their swagger since they havent backed all their chest bumping with wins. The passing of Peter Seidler was devastating since he was, apparently, the one with the drive and commitment to putting the best team he could on the field. They may be top 10 in payroll, but it sure feels to this Dodgers fan that the only reason is because they cant offload contracts as readily as they hoped. IF they are top 10 when the season opens I will be a bit surprised. If they are top 10 after the trade deadline I will be shocked.
It reminds me of the McCourt years for the Dodgers… Not a fun time to be a fan.
Yep. You got to get the job done if you swag. Otherwise you just look foolish. The dancing outfielders last year was very Padre. Too much, too early.
@darthdragula – Alecia Seidler is that you?
Cute troll.
The “lack of playoff success” still bounced your guys not two years ago.
The Dodgers are so much more hate-able because of their fans. Exhibit A.
Congratulations on your playoff “success”
@Informed Typical, and in my opinion EXACTLY the reason the Padres come up short: Beating the Dodgers is their measure of success, when winning the Ring should be the goal.
Props to the Padres for bouncing the Dodgers 2 years ago. What did that ring look like?
@empirejim
Don’t put words into my mouth, troll.
The other troll said the Pads had not had success in the playoffs. I pointed out that is a lie, of Dave Roberts caliber. Padre fans would very much like our team to win a ring.
Your team wins a championship, and you’re all still insufferable d-bags. I have no use for any of you.
The ghost of Xander Bogaerts will forever haunt this franchise while wasting the prime years of Manny, Tatis, and Jackson Merrill
Xander can very well have some very good seasons left in him. Even in 2023 he was a pretty good player. 2024 not so much but he also suffered a pretty significant injury.
This is a big year for him to see if he can rebound from 2024. He doesn’t need to be a 6 war player but I think he has a good shot at being a 4 war players which is well worth his contract for at least another year.
I expect positive regression from Bogaerts, but not a huge amount. The wrist injury is chronic, so that might continue to flare up. And he is a solid 31+. Hypothetically, you’ll get 1-2 more good seasons from him.
I wouldn’t worry too much about Tatis’ and Merrill’s primes being wasted.
They’ll both get plenty of chances to contend with whatever teams the Pobres ship them out to.
It’s time we all get comfy with knowing that those two will be moved to acquire controllable assets for kickstarting the Salas & deVries era.
Sounds more like a planted story because teams were trying to fleece the Padres in trades because everyone knows they are trying to dump payroll.
Lol
More likely trying to calm down a restless fanbase.
Yeah this is likely. Was a spin article planted by the Seidler bros who are being killed publicly.
And they needed to change the conversation away from what Profar said.
Not just Profar but also Roki basically saying the same thing.
Perhaps them being called out publicly is the change in the whole we are cutting spending to we will be a top 10 payroll team.
The article also or close to it. Which if they are looking at that today could still mean they will reduce payroll by 10-20m.
Will see what happens but the Seidler bros are getting destroyed by fans a lot of the San Diego media. Except for ones they threatened to remove to access to. Those ones like 97.3 are treading lightly around the ownership conversations.
Getting crushed. No idea what went on behind closed doors at the Seidlers, but the evil bros scenario seems a
bit harsh to me. Bringing it back to fiscally responsible was always on the cards.
More likely Acee’s way of saying I blew it again. In December he was saying the Padres would cut payroll for the 2nd straight year. Instead payroll is up $40 million.
Last offseason, he tried to say that CBT payroll for 2024 absolutely had to be under $200 million and that they had to cut $100 million off the end of season 40 man payroll. Obviously, neither happened. CBT payroll ended up being $227 million and 40 man payroll was only $57 million lower.
Now he is saying that what Kutsenda and Greupner have been saying all offseason was right. That the Padres will end up with a payroll somewhere between 2023 and 2024. Since they are already #9 in payroll, he is stating the obvious that they will end up in the top 10.
Why anyone would try to claim that the guys that make the decision about what payroll will be didn’t know what it would be is beyond illogical. Borders on outright lies.
The Mets will take Arraez, Cease and Suarez off their hands. They should if they want to compete in the NL East and have a shot at winning the ML
The Mets don’t have enough young, top rated, cost controlled talent that they can spare to make a deal for all those 3 All Star players., but nice try.
Idk, the Mets have a pretty good amount of young talent plus they could throw in some of their fringe street/relievers.
What world are you living in?
The world where the Mets are not going to completely blowup their team and farm by trading for 3 All Star players at market value or above market value.
It is also known as ‘the real world”.
Too bad. I’d like to see them take the Rays method and keep payroll down and be competitive.
This is less of an aspiration and more of a realization.
preller since 2011 with the padres 1 championship series appearances meanwhile dombrowski since 2011 with 3 teams, 6 championship series appearances 2 world series appearances and 1 ring, and people around here tell me preller is a great GM and dombo is bad lol SMH, preller is so overrated
No one is comparing the two except you. People like that preller is actually aggressive and tries to win unlike most other small market teams
i heard all the time how preller is so good and dombrowski is going to ruin your team,
Please record or otherwise document these comparative discussions for our enlightenment. Shouldn’t be a problem since they swirl about you “all the time”
I am well-aware of both GM’s, have heard their names come up in conversation, yet somehow have heard them compared none of the time.
Not sure who says dombo is bad. He has a proven track record especially when a team is in a win now mode. Perhaps some people don’t love how he trades away prospects.
You have to also remember that half the time preller was in charge the padres were in full rebuild mode. All the success has come in the last 5 seasons. 3 playoff appearances and won a series or two in two of those three years. Lost to the Phillies and dodgers in those three appearances which there is no shame in doing so.
What people like about preller is he find prospects, isn’t afraid to go for it which makes it exciting. Even if some of those moves don’t pan out. Give him another year or so and the farm system has real talent again. I’ve been told by fans on here the padres traded the farm…then a year later the padres have traded the farm. Then a year later the padres have traded the farm. Just means he keeps finding prospects people want. That is the only way they will compete for awhile with the heavy contracts they have.
SIMM is exactly right. It was a full tear down and rebuild, signing manny was pivoting to competing, and since then they’ve been in the playoffs regularly including the NLCS and were the only team that took a good shot at the dodgers last year.
Preller has:
Earned the ‘rockstar’ moniker by going on a spending spree as soon as he got the job. (That spending spree failed to produce wins & was quickly torn down)
Fired Bud Black & embarked upon his first rebuild. (Did not even offer an interview to Dave Roberts to fill Black’s position)
Lost a lot for a long time
Spent big dough for Hosmer, Machado, Darvish, Musgrove, Boegarts & sold the farm a bunch of times over
For all of that the Pobres have minimal playoff success, a spotty roster & a bloated payroll they can’t afford
But, yeah. AJ rips
Dombrowski is a HOF exec with the rings to prove it. One of the best ever.
While I think Preller is a bit overrated, almost entirely by SD fans, I don’t recall ever seeing anyone compare him to DD.
0 ws appearances 0 rings 1 nlcs in 15 years
The Padres are in the best shape they have been in since they began as an expansion franchise.
2 NL Championships in their history..
The Padres are competing yearly for Division Titles, Wild Cards and a ticket to the playoffs where any competitive team can get hot and “run the table” making the WS and winning it.
(Cardinals won the World Series one year with 84-85 win team.
The Padres look like a 90+ win team even without further trades and moves
The Dodgers look like a 100+ win team unless their pitching implodes with multiple injuries, again.
The Padres farm system is producing a treasure trove of highly rated talent from the MLB Draft and International signings.
The Padres are selling out a record number of games and competing with Division rival Dodgers for one of the highest monthly attendances in MLB.
(That translates to money rolling in to support a regular contender in the NL West without forcing Ownership to run the team as a hobby and at a loss.
The Padres came very close to knocking the high spending Dodgers out of the playoffs last year.
They did eliminate the much higher spending Dodgers from the playoffs a few years ago and then lost to the Phillies in the next round.
MLB should join other professional sports leagues with a salary floor and cap.
OR MLB is covering its collective eyes and allowing MLB Owners to return to the days of “checkbook”/mercenary players championships..
The Padres had a legit chance to win the WS last year and blew it. The team has gotten significantly worse losing Profar, having no catcher and losing their best RP to the Dodgers. With AZ adding Burnes this Padres team will be lucky to finish in 3rd place. That team just has no depth
Padres will be fine and just about every site still has them better than the dbacks.
They will be fine with only 3 major league starters, no catcher and no left fielder? Ok keep believing that. They are on track to continue the streak of no playoffs in odd years. The Dbacks blow them away right now in rotation and offense. Padres have them beat in the bullpen but thats not enough
Amk- three starters plus a number of guys who started for them a year ago.
Campy who started almost half the games a year ago.
The dbacks also lost a lot of production. The replaced Walker with a worse player and lost Pederson who had a big big year for them.
I’d give them a net gain from a year ago but it wasn’t like they added him and didn’t make anyone.
Like I said most every single site who rate teams…not padres fans. Still have the padres as a better team than the dbacks. You can disagree with them but many disagree with you.
Padres and AJ Preller are not done with offseason moves yet.
They will be competitive for at least a Wild Card.
Campusano is the starting catcher who hits above average and needs to step it up on Defense.
Padres will roll out a veteran defensive catcher before the season starts.
Pitching?!
Padres have plenty of great young arms vying to be starters according their depth chart and 40 man roster.
One or 2 players will have to step forward to seize a job or jobs:
Vasquez, Brito, Waldron and others they are signing off the street
and trading for.
Sooo 9th payroll in baseball and expecting to be in the top 10
Got it
LOL! That’s exactly what I thought. They are currently #6 in CBT & $36M ahead of the #11 team. Safe to say that they are not dropping to #11.
In fact, I’d bet that they cut payroll. It doesn’t make sense for them to stay over the cap by $6M.
As the article stats they are 1.5m over the tax. Also Fangraphs has them 9 in tax payroll as well.
@Simm – if I remember correctly, the tax calculation is at year end. So I think it’s entirely possible they roll with the team they have at least through ST and see how the younger players have grown (or not) and then finalize the team early in the season or wait until it gets close to the trade deadline and make a decision whether to add to push to the playoffs or subtract to get under the CBT if playoffs unlikely. At that point, the number of teams interested in Cease, Arraez, Suarez (and King) may be a better time to make some trades.
Generally, half year rentals don’t get as much of a return as full year players.
That can be true especially to teams under the tax. Let’s say the O’s trade for cease they can QO him and get a first round pick back. That has real value plus the year of the player.
Less value to say a team like the Yankees. Who would be getting a 4th round pick back.
@FanDan – I would agree “generally” true. However, considering how many pitchers get injured these days during the season, I can see a larger number of teams on the playoff “bubble” interested in giving up more to get a quality arm like Cease, King and Suarez (assuming they’re still playing well and healthy) which may actually enhance the return and get the Padres under the CBT. My other concern is trading Cease now basically waves the white flag as I doubt without him they’ll have much chance of a wildcard and trading him to another NL team now likely makes it even more difficult. The starting rotation is just too thin and I see a lot of “bullpen” days on the horizon unless a couple young guys are ready to handle over 100 innings.
Well if they trade him at the deadline they would be waving the white flag as well. I don’t think their strategy for winning and controlling what they spend revolves too much around what happens at the deadline. If they are in contention they are buyers and keep Cease. If they are out of it, they are sellers and will probably kick themselves they didn’t sell earlier. If they could sell those 3 and get a starting catcher and a couple of backend arms in return, I think they would be happy. If enough $ is left over they go after cheap DH/ LF types like they did with Solano and Peralta.
Worth noting the padres cut payroll last year and actually got better
I said this at the time of the Soto trade that Preller was having his best off-season ever. It was worthy of a GM of the year award.
In the second paragraph he says their current payroll is at 208M, then in the last paragraph he says the payroll sits at 243M.
Thanks for making it clear?
243 is the AAV collectively and includes other expenditures that are part of calculating CBT. The 208 is the current 40 man estimated payroll. Paychecks for players on the 40 man.
Thanks, The writer needs your clarity.
243 AAV
Prelller GM starting in 2014 and was building talent until 2019 . He made a lot of mistakes bad trades and good trades . But he can build a farm and trade it away better than days when padres were bottom 5.
So the Angels are 10th at $191M. AZ and SF are next at $186M and $181M respectively. Stands to reason that they want to be in the 190’s.
Think az is 10th. As the article states though many of the teams right behind them may had payroll. So staying in the top 10 will likely require them to keep payroll where it is now or even a little above it.
There are still several players that are free agents that are going to add a decent amount of payroll to teams. Payroll isn’t frozen where it is for each team.
For what it’s worth Cots is my source on payroll. Cubs are 13th at $180M. No one has any idea who is going to pickup another big contract. We shall see how it plays out. I would prefer they keep Cease until the deadline and do what they can on offloading Suarez and Arraez. But I think those two aren’t drawing too much interest or returns that help this year. So they may be stuck with those salaries.
A little unique to see a Top 10 payroll coming up in 2025 with no new additional players or spending occurring.
Yeah they had a lot of money added from last year via arb and backloaded contracts. For example they paid Arraez nothing last year because the marlins are his contract. So he alone added nearly 14m to the payroll.
The padres payroll as of now is about 40m above last years.
Not really. Especially if they were top 10 last year. Its just if you have of budget of $240MM, but have already spent $235MM, it will seem like you can’t spend money. That’s because you already spent it.
Don’t be a tool
I don’t see them doing that. Plus in a couple of years from now he will be making 39m a year until he is 40. Nobody is going to want that contract on the wrong side of 35. He will retire a padre and likely go into the hall of fame as a padre.
He loves it in San Diego. Is not part owner of the new San Diego mls team. I don’t think he has any desire to leave. Ring or no ring. People can be happy without winning a ring.
@pinkiepink – Ummmm, no on needing a ring. You might want to check in on newest HOF Ichiro plus others from the past like Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, Ken Griffey Jr, Ernie Banks, Tony Gwynn, etc. Plus Mike Trout may languish with the poor Angels franchise and I think he maaaay get in as well.
Trout is in today if the League approved the 5 year wait could be waved. Check his all-time numbers, especially WAR. Top 3 CFer, easily.
@Gwynning – totally agree on Trout. Hoping he’s been getting in better shape this offseason and avoids the injuries. I was just “being cheeky” on mentioning him since the odds aren’t too good the Angels will win another World Series any time soon. Whether Manny makes it is too early to tell in my book but I think he’s got a legit shot regardless of the team he plays on. I’m just glad it’s with the Padres.
pinkiepink? More like trollietroll
Is this the new Blackpink handle? I’ve been wondering where that guy (and his alter ego) went.
They are losing half a season of Mushgrove and half a season of HSK. And a whole season of Higgy and Profar. But gain a whole season of Adam and Arraez compared to just part. Stands to reason that they can trade Arraez or Suarez. Pick up a solid catcher and use one catcher in DH if Rosario is not up to snuff. Pick up a cheap 1B, and run a prospect out in LF. The question to me is which young starter on the 40 person roster can best bolster rotation. Padres look like a WC2 or WC3 to me.
Yeah, they are also losing Scott, Solano and Higgy. They are losing mainly depth plus profar.
Profar will be tough to replace but many don’t think he will be as good next year anyways.
It’s starting pitching that is the biggest concern. While the padres got a lot of use from Waldrons den Vasquez last year. It would be idle to add at least another starter in the 4/5 role. Of course if they trade cease this will increase the need.
They have 3 or 4 young “depth starters”.
Time to just go to a 6 man rotation and see which ones
“break through”…
Wonder what they’d want from Detroit for Cease and Suarez.
Name one club where the fans complain that the owners spend too much money on players.
Philly. They say it’s individual players aren’t worth what they are getting.
You’re confusing “obsessed fans who post on online forums” with “fans.” Casual fans are utterly unlike you and me. They don’t care all that much whether their home team wins and think it’s grotesque how much money the industry makes.
Casuals are the first to stop attending games when the team is perceived as non competitive.
“They’re always bad”.
“Are they good this year?”
“Baseball is so long and boring” “I’d rather go bowling on a Saturday night”
That’s a casual fans sentiment, generally.
The casuals are the first to stop attending.
Just for fun, what do your season tickets involve?
Stop with the “entitlement” shtick.
Every fan of every team, wants their team to win.
The Padres have never won a WS and their close or were close, of course we are going to push ownership to do what it takes.
They are not doing what it takes to win a WS.
They have a top 10 payroll just shut up. You are entitled. Now again shut up
Again, that’s a lot of wasted money on bad contracts and hosmer, and they still have holes to fill, or based on your logic they should just not even attempt to fill those holes?
Says who, towin? You?!? Where’s my apology from you for saying they’d be a Top 10 payroll… and you keep insisting they’ll “sell, sell, sell!” Get a grip.
Team has cut payroll and is benefitting, on paper from Peter Seidlers expenditures which have inflated payroll.
The current ownership is all about windowdressing.
Easy to throw a figure out based on contracts of players already on your roster.
Team has lost:
Higashioka(starting catcher)
Profar(starting left fielder)
Scott(elite set up man)
Solano(veteran professional hitter bench depth)
Peralta(same as Solano)
The team has not improved.
And yes.
SELL
SELL
SELL
Payroll is up $40MM, towin. Go take your nap, Gramps.
Payroll being “up” does not reflect activity.
Wow, brilliant insight towin! So you’re crying about inactivity now, or cutting payroll? You’re all over the place, man. Just like last year- you’re crying about roster construction months too soon.
Both.
Inactivity predicated by an artificial mandate to cut payroll.
Preller constructed an amazing roster while handcuffed by the same individuals responsible for this year’s spending freeze.
Preller is solely responsible for any successes the Padres may have this year.
Preller is responsible/deserves the credit for the acquisition of players in last years Soto deal.
Ownership deserves zero credit for any future success.
Every fan doesn’t behave like a spoilt child when they don’t get what they want. It’s not a schtick. It’s you.
Spending more on your team is a prevailing sentiment with fans everywhere.
It is. You just go about expressing the sentiment like a small child. That’s the difference.
towinagain
Stop with the “entitlement” shtick.
Every fan of every team, wants their team to win.
=============================
But not every fan complains that their team is only 6th in payroll.
Fans are vocal in their assertion that their team should spend more.
That is universal.
Why should they?
Kind of a nothing-burger. The article is referencing payroll, but it is probably better to sort by CBT, which puts them #6 or 7, depending on the source. All the article implies is that SD is not going to cut payroll by $20-30M, since they are already well within the top-10.
And I’d make a modest wager that they will trade away a modest amount of payroll to duck under the cap.
Fangraphs has the padres as 9th in tax payroll as well.
So using that metric doesn’t really change a thing. To me it sounds like they will spend up against the tax line. Perhaps over it some, knowing they can trade below or at the deadline if things don’t look promising. If they make the playoffs, the playoff money will cover any extra spending.
Sort of wild how big the CBT number is compared to the actual payroll. The CBT number is actually 7th in MLB as it sits.
I’m a Dodgers fan, and I saw a Padres team last year, that was the best team in baseball over the 2nd half. That NLDS could’ve been decided by a coin flip. A Padres team fueled by one of the smaller revenue streams in the game, vs one of the two largest. You have to tip your cap to them. They have really done their best to win, even spending above their means to do so. It’s been a disappointing off season for Padres fans for sure, but they’ve been filling seats at Petco the last few seasons, and I hope that continues. They have some holes to fill, but Preller is good at his job, and he’ll get it done. I still fully expect the Padres to be one of the best teams in the league.
Stadium will be full again, they have sold out their season ticket memberships and have a waiting list.
Padre fans deserve better.
I would encourage everyone to read Arce’s article. It’s about much more than the headline here. Arce is a good reporter.
Depends on what he writes apparently. Good news. Awesome reporter. Bad news. Has it in for the Padres.
msn.com/en-us/lifestyle/lifestyle-buzz/analysis-pa… Here it is.
That felt like it was written directly by the Seidler bros.
Of course. They are desperate to change the conversation from what Profar said.
Acee. He is not a good reporter. Earlier in the offseason he was one of the reporters saying the Padres would cut payroll for 2nd straight year. Now he has changed his mind. Everyone should read the article before commenting on it.
Agree about Acee, but this article from UT is fairly balanced, for a change.
Brew- by balanced you mean it wasn’t his usual hit piece. Hence why it felt like the brothers wrote it.
I don’t think the brothers (other than Tom) are promoting patience or hope, I don’t think they care.
I think they are trying to get the fans off their backs. They have been taking brutal pr hits.
In activity plus no Roki plus Sheel lawsuit, plus who other than Tom are they? Yeah it raises questions. But the payroll and team heading into 2025 may very well be top 10 whether fans are satisfied with that or not.
Please post the link here. Thanks
See above.
That being the case, as a Yankees fan, I’m asking that the Padres please take Stroman off our hands. On behalf of the team, we’ll even accept Luis “Lead Glove” Arraz if necessary.
Yes. Please send us your garbage.
I’m sure the padres will gladly do so but the others the Yankees would need to add would make you change your mind.
The Padres already rejected an Arreaz trade.
Cashman was insisting the Padres take Strohman.
Padres wanted at least one of their younger, cost controlled pitchers plus more.
Arraez has won at least 3 batting titles and he actually produces clutch hits in the playoffs unlike some of the other NYYs.
Can someone tell me how a small market team like the Padres can have a top 10 team in salary but the Guardians who have one of the top five richest owners can’t get out of the bottom third? I know tv contracts are at play in all of this but there has to be more.
Just checked. Last year, Cleveland received more money from their TV contract, so that’s not it.
Thrifty owners vs. one that was “all-in”
They are a low valuation team. Bottom third. Low revenues. But in 2023, according to Forbes, had an OM of 17%. The Pittsburgh Pirates of the AL. A little cheap on club investment, yes. But not like Seattle. It’s shameful what is going on up there.
Padres do make a lot of money via attendance
Some owners will give up higher profitabilites to take greater risks to compete. Some won’t until they can see the stars align on their rosters. The others don’t care as long as the fans keep showing up and they get their revenue-sharing checks. This can change in any given year for almost every team. From a business owner standpoint, there’s nothing wrong with picking any of the pathways.
debubba
Can someone tell me how a small market team like the Padres can have a top 10 team in salary
=========================
Do you really need attendance, revenue, etc. explained to you?
Attendance is a very small portion of profitability. Yes, you need fans showing up but the Guardians carry 120 mil payroll and the Padres are nearly 90 million higher. Fans showing up doesn’t make a team 90 million. So, to answer you question, please enlighten me.
I can only go by 2023 numbers, not all 2024 is available. In 2023, Cleveland had $315M in revenue with a finishing 40 man payroll of $96M and finished with an Operating Margin of $52M. 17% profit on revenue. SD had $345M in revenue, a $257M 40 man payroll and an OM loss of $116M. Hence the big cut in 2024 payroll. If Cleveland had thrown most of that profit back into the team’s payroll they would be around $140M+ in payroll in 2024. SD had a payroll in 2024 of about $173 M. Cleveland payroll only went up to $106M. Cleveland had attendance just over 2M. SD at 3.3M. So SD gets more revenue from attendance, but Cleveland is working with double digit profit margins would be my guess. And wants to keep it that way.
1.3MM more Petco attendees at a very conservative $50 per ticket is $65MM more revenue, not counting any GameDay purchases (parking, concessions, etc.)
Good post Dan!
I flew in and went to a game. Was sold out and got after market tickets is the second deck of right field for 63 per ticket x 4, $50 bucks to park and spend another $150 on concessions. All that was after going to the Padre store and spending over $200 bucks on some hays and shirts.
Not everyone going to a game does this but many are even spending more.
I’m easily out $200 a game per ticket. Selling family members helped wrangle that number… coming and going!
@Fandan just curious, where at are you getting those revenue reports? Teams don’t usually report revenue
People go by the Forbes reports from 2 years ago. Though nobody actually knows the rev but for two teams.
Full disclosure: METHODOLOGY
Forbes’ team valuations are enterprise values (equity plus net debt) based on historical transactions and the future economics of the sport and each team. Revenue and operating income (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) are for the 2023 season and are net of revenue sharing, competitive balance taxes and stadium revenue used for debt service. Ownership stakes in regional sports networks, as well as related profits or losses, are excluded from our valuations and operating results, as are investments in real estate and other businesses. (For all-inclusive sports ownership valuations, see the 2023 Sports Empires rankings.) Sources include sports bankers, team and league executives, public documents like leases and filings related to public bonds, and media rights experts.
Manny will have a statue in petco.
TRANSLATION:
If the Padres can get the younger, cost controlled players they want that allows them to compete for the playoffs and WS this year by trading RHSP / Cy Young Contender Dylan Cease, NL All Star Closer Robert Suarez,
AND 3x Batting Champion Luis Arreaz,
then the Padres will seriously look @ making those deals.
But, the Padres ARE NOT CONDUCTING A FIRE SALE!
(low ball offers will not be considered).
Pretty much.
How embarrassing for all the fake reporters writing about the padres being in dire straights financially and needing to slash payroll. Absolute hacks out there.
Padres expected to go broke.
This site repeated those statements nearly everyday.
Oh the inhumanity of it all !
How did you cope !?!?
Ha ha ha. Too funny.
The Padres have done absolutely nothing all offseason. That’s because they have no money to spend. They have still done nothing and you are beating your chest over a silly article.
It’s been reported on here a million times the padres are going to cut payroll. Now it’s being reported that they will have a payroll around where it is now.
The padres haven’t made any moves because they haven’t lined up on any moves yet. If you don’t think they will make any moves then I feel certain you will be wrong.
Simm, so between their 2023 and 2024 payrolls?
Honestly I have no idea where payroll is going to land at this point.
Padres have made comments that sound like financially they are in a good spot. Preller has said he has some flexibility.
Some reports have said they are cutting payroll. Now they make it sound like it will be around where it’s now.
Then you have the fact that they have done basically nothing this offseason. So one could say they are cutting, while they haven’t cut anything.
So I think they will sell and buy and end up 5-10m under the tax. Around a 200m payroll which is about 8m less than it currently is. That’s my best guess.
The Padres have done NOTHING all offseason.
If money wasn’t tight then what the f are they waiting for?
This nonsense about cutting payroll or not is just that. They had a bunch of backloaded deals their payroll is going up even with all the free agents they let go.
Of course they will make moves. But if they have to trade Cease or Arraez to get th done odds are they won’t be better off for it.
I disagree. If they get a quality return for cease and then spend the money saved on players they will be better overall.
What quality return is this?
You gonna sign the next Profar for a million bucks?
You hope. But thats not a good strategy.
We will have to wait and see.
It’s January 26th dude. Padres have done NOTHING. we can keep waiting….
You seemed pretty concerned about what the padres are going to do. Yet you also know they will do something. Preller usually makes a bunch of moves in a short window.
He also clearly isn’t just going to move a guy for salary relief. We have no idea how close he is to pulling a trigger. Also many felt he was waiting on Roki to decide a direction. Now that has been decided I’m sure he is working his options. Heck he could even wait until the season starts.
It isn’t the Padres year dude. This is what “all in” looks like after the fact. You can stay positive and hopeful all you want. It’s not the Padres year.
Sure buddy, guess they will cancel the season and wait for you to tell us all who will win.
Classic BITA, thinking he knows best and berating other team’s fans that know better along the way! So funny it’s sad lol
Who cares?
You maybe? Since you are here posting?
Whole lot of words to say what?! They may spend. They probably won’t spend. Though they might. But they probably shouldn’t. Yet who really knows…
Never enough
Some of these trade proposals are quite humorous. lol at what SD gave CHISox for two years of Cease at a salary around $8M. That was the best offer they got. So that should tell you what the league thinks what Cease’s return value is. Now he has only 1 year before he walks and is making zest $14M. A Soto like haul? Get real.
Burnes trade value is about what Cease’s trade value is.
Cease was much better in 2024 than 2023. What the White Sox got for him will not determine what the Padres want.
Burnes is a much more consistent pitcher therefore less risk. So GMs looking at risk are asking themselves which version of Cease do they get. For one year, they are looking at being a little risk averse. So less what they are willing to give up. Don’t expect a Burnes comp return.
If Preller was being offered what Milwaukee gave to Baltimore, Cease would already be gone.
* got from Baltimore.
C/1B Samuel Basallo, LHSP Cade Povich or RHSP Chayce McDermot and/or OF Heston Kjerstad 2 or 3 guys from that list at least one position player who can hit and 1 starter and they probably have a deal with Orioles.
You will wait a long time for that to happen.
Some team will step up and give the Padres “value” for a RHSP who has been in the top 5 for Cy Young voting the last 4-5 years and is playing on a 13.75 M salary.
If not, then the Padres just keep him.
He isn’t getting the Soto haul but cease was also coming off a bad season the year before. So his value has gone up via production but down via control.
No chance the RS trade for him. I’d absolutely love to add him for 2 years. But the remaining 7 years and $272M is a non-starter.
If SD threw in $150M into the pot, then we can talk.
I hope the Padres run away with the NL West.
The Padres will not runaway with the NL West.
I just read this entire comments section and it’s obvious that maybe 4 people bothered to read the article by Kevin Acee. How do you expect to comment on something you didn’t read?
I read the entire article. A lot of it was him telling fans how to fans. It was a calm your hate article.
It was wrote like it was from the Seidler bros trying to remove some of the hate they are getting from fans.
About payroll it stated the expect to be a top 10 payroll team or close to it. Which gives you the idea they will be between 190-210m based on where top 10 currently is.
It also states based on that payroll expectation that they will likely sell and buy this offseason.
That’s what I got from it.
The hate has gone overboard and message for patience is reasonable given that it is January. I know fans who are seething that they didn’t land Roki, I have no ear for such entitled morons.
Profar and his comments have sent padres fans over the edge when it comes to the Seidler bros.
Read the comments on X about this article. Nobody is buying this article of patience.
Profar’s comments? He mostly praised the Padres and very barely referenced the ownership issues. Nothing about what he said was newsworthy to anyone ( remember Sheels lawsuit?). certainly not bombshell material. Tell me, what from Acee’s article do you contest as not reality Simm?
We don’t know yet. We have to wait to see how much of the spending part is true.
When they say they expect to have a top 10 payroll or near there. They could still shed 20m or so and likely be able to say that.
It’s not just profar’s comment but also Roki’s comment. It’s has the fans and most of the media in San Diego heavily criticizing them.
They are also taking heat for not speaking to the media. Just go read the comment on X under this article. People aren’t happy.
So will see where it all ends up.
Brew. Ownership fighting made it difficult to go back there.
Everyone is wondering whether it might be a factor, and then Profar comes out and confirms it directly.
Sounds newsworthy to me.
It was an “article” saying a top-6 team will stay in the top -10
@Joe Brady yep
The bottom line from the article is to expect some reduction in payroll from where they are now. Not from 2024 level. Probably about $10-15M. That puts them in the mid to low $190M ish. Still top 10 most likely. He also editorializes a bit about giving Preller the benefit of the doubt and being patient. Regular season is two months away. Things will happen. But we as fans probably need to lower our expectations.
I didn’t get that at all. It says they are #9 now and another team may increase their payroll to be higher than that. It says nothing about the Padres lowering payroll.
The Padres foolish spending over the last decade reminds me of the old, cliched, joke: “What do you mean there’s no money? There’s still checks in the checkbook…”
The extended Manny, Manny had a massive contract and, injuries included, is not earning the contract. He’s better than others, but he’s not earning his top dollar payout. That extension makes it even worse.
Xander was a feeble shortstop and even admitted that HS Kim had better range. They waited a full season to switch him back and Kim had a bad year. Xander is not going to get better. He is slowing down and he will be an old man halfway through his overexorbitant contract. He should be at first place by now…
The Fernando Ringworm Jr. deal is still favorable in comparison to the market, but he is no way producing like he did when he had the ringworm medicine coursing through his veins.
Peter Seidler and AJ Preller both had some serious character judgment flaws. They certainly didn’t know how to find character and build chemistry. The Padres will pay for that for a decade.
Like I recommended on multiple forums years ago, give these bloated contract recipients a case of Jack Daniels and an ATV, tell him to have fun during the off-season. Get them to have non-baseball injuries so that the contracts can be canceled. Fernando Ringworm Jr tried to do that for the Padres with his off-season motorbike accidents, but they let him off the hook. It’s time for them to put their foot down.
*first BASE
Clearly a padres fan…
Wait!!! WHAT? I thought Acee said they had to cut payroll. Now he says that after raising it $40 million they don’t have to cut it at all?