Javier Assad Ruled Out For Opening Day

Cubs right-hander Javier Assad has been sidelined this spring due to oblique soreness, and 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine relays this afternoon that the righty won’t be ready to pitch in time for either the Tokyo Series on March 18 or the club’s stateside opener against the Diamondbacks on March 27. Presumably, the Cubs will place him on the injured list to open the season, leaving him out of action for at least the beginning of April.

Assad, 27, has found plenty of success over three seasons in the majors with Chicago despite questionable peripherals. The right-hander served in a part-time swing role for the Cubs in both the 2022 and ’23 seasons, posting a 3.06 ERA (139 ERA+) in 147 innings of work across 41 appearances (18 starts) during that two-year stretch. That excellent production came in spite of underlying numbers that were far less impressive. Assad walked 9.9% of his opponents while striking out just 20.2% of them over those first two seasons, and his 44.7% groundball rate was strong but not outstanding. That left him with a 4.34 FIP and a 4.59 SIERA over those two years, both of which painted him as a below average pitcher despite his above-average results.

When the right-hander was handed an Opening Day rotation spot by the Cubs last year, it was fair to wonder whether those lackluster peripherals would come back to bite him. He once again managed to defy the underlying metrics in 2024, however, posting a 3.73 ERA (107 ERA+) despite a 4.64 FIP and 4.72 SIERA. His strikeout, walk, and groundball rates were largely unchanged from the prior two seasons, but despite that he still posted the numbers of a solid back-end start across 147 innings and 29 starts. His 4.38 ERA and 4.80 FIP after the All-Star break last year stuck out as a potential cause for concern, but after an offseason that saw the club focus more on upgrading its lineup and bullpen rather than the rotation Assad once again figured to feature in the club’s starting five to open the 2025 season.

Those plans will have to be put on hold for now, however, as Assad is only just beginning to work his way back to the mound after being sidelined for all of last month by an oblique strain. Levine writes that the Cubs hope he’ll be able to proceed to throwing a bullpen session next week, but even that seems up in the air. Given the uncertainty surrounding Assad’s status, it’s hardly a surprise that the Cubs decided to formally pull the plug on him as an Opening Day possibility and begin exploring other options to fill out the rotation in earnest.

Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele front Chicago’s rotation and are slated to start the club’s two-game series against the Dodgers in Tokyo. Meanwhile, veterans Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd make up the middle of the Cubs’ rotation after Chicago added Boyd on a two-year deal back in December. With Assad no longer an option for the fifth starter job, it seems likely that the gig could fall to veteran swing man Colin Rea. Rea, 34, posted a 4.40 ERA (96 ERA+) and 4.82 FIP in 58 appearances (49 starts) with Milwaukee over the past two years. He figures to be on the Opening Day roster so long as he’s healthy, though he does have ample experience pitching in relief as well.

The possibility that Rea could be used as a long reliever rather than a starter leaves the door open for one of the Cubs’ other potential starting options to grab the fifth starter job. Right-hander Ben Brown dazzled in his rookie season with a 3.58 ERA and 3.11 FIP in 55 1/3 innings of work, and while he was sidelined by an osteoma on his neck for the entire second half last year he now appears to be fully healthy. Jordan Wicks struggled through an injury-marred campaign in 2024 but is a recent top-100 prospect with plenty of upside.

Veteran rotation arms Chris Flexen and Brad Keller are both in camp as non-roster invitees, and it’s possible either could factor into the competition for the fifth starter job alongside Rea, Brown, and Wicks. One player who is unlikely to compete for the job is top pitching prospect Cade Horton, who is healthy this spring after what amounted to a lost season in 2024 but still has minimal experience at the Triple-A level under his belt. Whoever earns the fifth starter job could theoretically pitch themselves into a more permanent job that lasts even beyond Assad’s upcoming IL stint, given that the 27-year-old has both ample bullpen experience and minor league options remaining.