The Orioles made a four-year proposal to retain Corbin Burnes during free agency, the former Cy Young winner told reporters (relayed by Jake Rill of MLB.com). Burnes himself did not specify the dollar figure. However, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that Baltimore’s final offer was for $180MM over four seasons.
Burnes ended up with the Diamondbacks on a six-year, $210MM contract that allows him to opt out after the ’26 season. Geography was a major factor. Burnes is a California native who now lives in Scottsdale, Arizona. He told reporters in January that he preferred to pitch close to home, especially because he and his wife welcomed twins last June. Burnes and agent Scott Boras initiated conversations with D-Backs owner Ken Kendrick in late December and quickly hammered out the deal.
Could the Orioles have dissuaded him from going to Arizona if they’d made a longer offer? Burnes didn’t directly answer that, though he implied that it may not have mattered. “The dollars (in Arizona) were more than what they were (in Baltimore),” the righty said (video provided by Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun). “I just don’t think we matched up on the years it was going to take to get to a dollar amount for me to stay there. Now, I can’t guarantee I would have gone there had those offers come around just because … with us living here, if (the Diamondbacks) were going to be serious and have a fair offer, then this is where we were going to be. It’s tough to play the ’what-if’ game.”
Nevertheless, Burnes said that Boras remained in negotiations with the Orioles until a few days before his agreement with the Snakes. He noted that the Arizona deal came together “within a matter of 72 hours,” so conversations with other clubs had stretched close to the end.
If the Orioles’ offer to Burnes did not include any deferred money, it would have featured a massive $45MM average annual value. That would have been the largest AAV for a pitcher (not counting Shohei Ohtani) and third overall behind the $51MM which Juan Soto received from the Mets and the approximate $46MM annual net present value on the Ohtani deal. Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Zack Wheeler hold the top annual salaries for non-Ohtani pitchers. They all landed in the $42-44MM range on three-year contracts.
Burnes took a good amount less on an annual basis. His $35MM per-year salary is tied for 14th overall, but the contract included $64MM in deferred money that dropped the NPV below $194MM (equivalent to just over $32MM per year). It contained a $10MM signing bonus and $30MM salaries ($10MM deferred) for the two seasons before the opt-out decision. Burnes has given up eight runs, six of them earned, over 9 1/3 innings through his first two starts in an Arizona uniform.
He chose the familiar west coast over the better contract. He made the choice best for him & his family, not chasing the biggest $$$. Doesnt happen often, good for him
Chandler, 210 is more than 180 so not sure he didn’t choose the “biggest $$$”.
Zero state income tax helps a bunch as well. CB would’ve lost roughly $2.5 million in state tax alone in B’more. Per year.
Arizona does have state income tax. Not sure how it compares to Maryland though.
I don’t think they change for daylight savings though so there’s that!
Most people believe what they want. Makes them feel good. Truth is your team didn’t offer him the most $. You feel better thinking he wanted to go to Arizona and Baltimore never had a chance. Arizona fans feel better knowing he loves your state and didn’t just go there for the most $.
I would guess he does prefer Arizona and if the $ was the same or even a bit less he would choose them.
But 180 isn’t 210. He got 30m more. And with taxes gets to keep more of it. And the biggest thing is the opt out. He is gone in 2026 unless he is a negative value. Baltimore offer wasn’t even close.
I hate to taking a dump on you feeling happy but I owe the small percentage of members who want a honest look at things.
@dm867: “Zero state income tax helps a bunch as well. CB would’ve lost roughly $2.5 million in state tax alone in B’more. Per year.”
Your math is way off. According to google, Arizona has a flat tax of 2.5%. Maryland over $250k/year is 5.75%. When you factor in away games and the applicable tax rates there, the difference is even less. But the Baltimore deal was $10 million more per season (allegedly). He would have been waaay ahead taking the Baltimore deal over the Arizona deal.
DreamGM — lol, come on stop clowning.
“I owe” “honest look” ???
180/4 > 210/6.
180 < 210.
Both are true…honestly. 🙂
IF the Orioles offered what this article says and the money was not deferred then it’s clearly more money and a better offer.
However, we really don’t know all of the details of the offer. It really sounds like he preferred Arizona because he lives there and it’s close to where he grew up. It’s very simple and easy to understand. All Arizona had to do was make him an offer that was close enough to Bmore’s in his mind because that’s where he preferred to be.
There’s nothing wrong with that.
He’s a clown.
“This is by far the best offer we had”
x.com/ByMattWeyrich/status/1909733009647190389
Out of Burnes mouth himself.
Reporter was wrong? Sounds like it according to Burnes. I’ll trust him over a reporter. Maybe report is right but with so much deferred and tax impact it was less. Burnes made it clear twice Arizona offered the most. No reason to lie as it would better to say I took less $ because I love this team. But sure he lives there so I am sure he preferred to go there.
The taxes in MD are terrible. They just instituted a tire tax. You have to pay $5 for every tire you buy and $1 tire disposal tax. Heck, the once taxed the rain here.
Longtime-This alone is worth a few million!
Players pay income tax where games are played, not where they live.
Out – you are correct but when 81 are played in home state, it’s fair to compare home states for taxation. The other 81, you pay regardless of where you sign.
yes but you cant count, its 6 years 210 which is less money than 4 year 180
Golden – what? In what world is 210 “less money” than 180?
There are no guarantees on life that he would ever sign another contract after 4.
You can’t take AAV to the bank. Also, some reports have Baltimore with deferrals – present value of money factors.
Longtime —
210/6 < 180/4.
It's in the math world. Aka, the real world.
Goldy you need to qualify that by saying more money per year. We also don’t have all the info on that offer. It could have been so heavily deferred that is was less per year. As it is he took the larger total guarantee as $210 is more than $180 in total. He just has to work 2 more years for that extra $30.
Goldenshowers, $210 million is more than $180 million.
Out – you think it so so simple – read my posts trying to convince O’s!
210/6 = 35
180/4 = 45
He did not sign for either of those numbers.
He signed for $210 million.
$210 million is more than $180 million.
That’s a pretty short-sighted view. $32 mil (in present day dollars) x 6 years = $192 mil. Burnes would only need to make a total of 12 mil over 2 yearsl (6 mil per) following his potential Orioles contract to make the Orioles contract better.
Even with some catastrophic injury or precipitous decline, it seems likely a team would take a chance on Burnes’ age 34 and 35 seasons for $12.1 mil.
The Orioles deal was simply better any way you look at it.
South – if you look above there is a link to where Burnes said the Az offer was the better offer.
Not sure how you continue to say what you typed.
The Orioles deal was $30 million less and also included “significant deferred salaries”.
You may think less guaranteed money is better, but most people don’t.
That is assuming it didn’t contain deferred money. Supposedly it did. “When you assume things you make an ass out of U and Me.” Samuel L. Jackson
Chandler, while the article here doesn’t mention it, Kubatko has said that the Orioles offer included “significant deferred salaries”. Not sure how much is significant, but $210 million is still more than $180 million no matter how you slice it. For more than 98.6% of Americans the $30 million difference is more than they will make in a lifetime.
Yeah but we’re talking the top .001% not the other 99.9% of people. 30 million is a lot to us but clearly its not as big of a difference to Burns considering he had a 250MM offer and turned that down for 40 million less in AZ.
At least the Orioles tried to keep him.
@99
Yes and it was a great offer
45mil aav would be the highest ever in mlb history for a pitcher
@chandler- I agree with you 100%. I guess as everyone is saying he just wanted to go home. The Yankees made a great offer for Soto. At the end of the day he just left. Nothing to be ashamed of.
99 – he likely did prefer AZ but it’s more than just going home. 30 mil (more if Balt had deferrals) and no state income tax.
Money is always a factor.
Longtime —
…”Likely”??? You have both Burnes own words, and his actions of calling AZ up to say so.
Seems likely your not paying attention.
O’s – why so defensive. Ok, he did prefer Arizona but if you read my posts (all) I’m only saying he took more money to there and that was a factor. He can prioritize his factors all he wants and he can publicize it how he wants but he got more money to go there and that is all I’m saying – original post was against a guy that said he took “less money”.
Longtime — Why so obtuse? You say 210 > 180. That’s true!
180/4 > 210/6. That’s ALSO true.
The “more money” thing can be argued both ways…because they are both True.
You’re not wrong. He’s not wrong.
However, math won’t answer the why/if/should/shouldn’t questions/conclusions. Other data points are needed for a conclusion since the Money is moot/non-deterministic.
O’s – obtuse is when you are given a link that Burnes himself said the AZ offer was the best by far and you keep on keeping on with your rabble.
Longtime — Nevermind, carry on. You’re missing it. Sorry to have tried.
Give Burnes a call as see if he can convince you to stop. He told the world in that link! Maybe he will tell you he was wrong and you are right
Longtime — I did call him. He said I was right. Thanks for the suggestion!
At least he was able to admit his faults! We all make mistakes burnsy
Orioles didn’t try too hard. And good. It’s a weak contract. Extremely player friendly. They could do more and better with that $. They avoided risk. Got a good draft pick.
Dream — “didn’t try too hard”?
Largest AAV for a pitcher…not trying hard??
Smh
Sounds like fake news. Burnes said Arizona offer was by far the best. It would be better to say I took less $ to be here. So reason to lie.
“The dollars (in Arizona) were more than what they were (in Baltimore),”
Maybe he’s lying. Maybe he’s stupid. But Baltimore is even more stupid to offer a record deal to a stupid liar. Either way they lose.
DreamGM — This isn’t complicated. Total dollars vs. AAV. Both arguments are correct (mathematically).
“Lying? Stupid? More stupid? They lose?” — I think you need to slow down. Your going to hurt yourself in all those knots.
He got one extra yr +30 million iwth an option to leave. The rest is merely noise.
Robw5555 —
6 – 4 = 2.
2 extra years.
(Peeps need to stop drinking and mathing tonight)
O’s – your are confusing years with money.
When someone says 210 is more that 180 they are correct.
You can’t take AAV or years to the bank and make a deposit.
You can take an extra 30 mil to the bank.
There are no guarantees in life – he took more $$ – 2 offers available, he took the one with more money. Yes, if his body is able, he is committed to showing up to work 2 more years. But that doesn’t change the fact that it’s more money!
Math is math but the first thing to figure is subject matter.
This is opinion. But watching the video I got that Burnes very nicely said that report of Baltimore offer was total bs. Like either not that much or didn’t mention deferred. He made it crystal clear not once but twice Arizona was the best offer he received from anyone. I’m not a fan of either team or Burnes so not blinded by my fandom. I appreciate his honesty and don’t see any reason why he would lie about it. If anything you would lie and say I took less $ for my love of this city team and it’s wonderful fans.
haven’t seen either of his starts but sounds like the O’s dodged a bullet so far
I, too, judge the 6 year contract based on his first 2 starts
I judge on the first inning. 2 Ks and an Aaron Judge popout? Shoulda got $300 million!
Man went through several frustrating years, he and MIL were never a good match. Then they ship him and his family up to the top right corner of the country. Good on him for doing what’s best for his personal life.
This is why Curt Flood was so important.
What does that even mean? He had some frustrating years that the Brewers spent turning him into a Cy winner that got him a contract that makes him hundreds of millions of dollars. Brewers were only not a match at the end bc they weren’t dont spend that kind of money.
So the Brewers are responsible for “turning him into” a success? If they’re such magic makers why hasn’t Ashby become something?
Ashby has all of 28.1 IP in 2 years, yeh a true riddle
Well, he has well over 100 in his career resulting in a ton of low leverage bullpen innings He signed an extension and has negative WAR, so point being if they turned Burnes into something they should start turning Aaron.
All I’m saying is I don’t think they “turned” Burnes into anything, it wasn’t supposed to be a shot at Ashby, who may eventually not suck.
Career 3.17 xFIP, 3.34 Sierra. I can imagine a few teams willing to give him a go on his contract
25-26 age seasons were missed, so just seems an apples/oranges comparison. Or an apples/void comparison even
One guy stays healthy through his prime and you’re praising the club. Nearly every other pitching investment gets hurt and / or disappoints and you call my point void. Ok
Hall, Gasser, Asbhy, Shane Smith lol, but ya Brewers are great at managing pitchers as evident of their complete overpay for Quinn Preister.
But at least Aaron Ashby has Ok underlying numbers (even though when i reference his stats they’re irrelevant or void due to sample size)
I never said a word about Burnes, so I’d prefer you don’t put the original claim on me. But to claim an injured pitcher is proof of the contrary is silly to me
Hall, Gasser & Smith combined for 71 IP together for MIL
For whatever it’s worth, Gasser & Smith have performed well in their very limited action as well?
Guess I’m a bit lost on what claim you’re attempting to make? That injured or yet to debut pitchers perform better in other clubs while injured or yet to debut?
The claim I’m making, over and over, is that the Brewers are not responsible for Corbin Burnes success, which is what they OP said and you defended. I specifically stated this isn’t about Ashby, I used him as an example yet I was read off his FIP.
If the crew were responsible for pitchers success (like they used to get a lot of credit for on pitchers) they would have be finding more success with a litany of arms who turn out to be oft injured, or they Rule 5 or whatever. Burnes stayed healthy, nothing to do with MIL.
Also, this an article about Corbin Burnes so to ask be be removed from the conversation when you commented on my post about him on a article about him furthers my point, you kinda just cherry picked what to read and reply to… think you missed my point and went straight to defend Aaron Ashby mode.
And I commented on Burnes above. You are the one who brought in another pitcher with 28 IP the past 2 years as a comparison, not I. If you have some thing about Brewers pitchers, then I won’t stop you, have at it
But it was a silly comparison,hence it standing out
I don’t pretend to know how much of his success was environmental for an organization known for stellar catcher work & developing borderline afterthought RPs with some SP success, but it would appear you do, so please enllighten us all
There’s a difference between compassion and examples. Confusing the two is what’s silly
Comparison*
You started two different posts with “I never said a word about Burnes” followed by “And I commented on Burnes above”
I have slightly more respect for the O’s new owner for giving a strong offer since it sounds like the reason he left Baltimore was because of home
When Soto left pinstripes he turned into Fried and Bellinger and Goldschmidt and Williams. But where did that potential salary of burnes go to? The owner’s yacht perchance?
Yeah, alot of trolls on here blast the Orioles brass for not spending….this offer is indicative of their efforts, and the trolls can shut up. It was always about geography for Burnes, and we knew that. Can’t blame him for choosing to be close to home, but those who blame the Orioles brass for having tight purse strings need to go away.
I mean… if they knew he wouldn’t come back couldn’t they have signed some other people even in December…
It wasn’t a strong free agent class that year so let’s see if they spend the money next offyear
O’s just bid him up. 30m short. More taxes. No opt out. Someone even mentioned Deferrals not sure if true. Either way their offer wasn’t close.
They didn’t get the TOR they wanted this off season. Can’t say they didn’t try. Hoping money not spent there has not gone to that yacht but is still sitting there for TOR purchase by trade deadline … that is, if in contention for playoff birth.
2 of their top 3 starters are on the IL. Not sure who else would have signed with them…sounds like they had lots of irons in the fire but not many opted to sign. And yeah, early on it looks like it’s gonna be an Achilles for sure
The Orioles certainly didn’t take that money and apply it elsewhere. Three starters with a 6+ ERA. Starting pitching seems to be a weakness.
Cant complain about orioles not spending money. Hopefully this indicates theyll spend to keep honegrown stars.
Haha no ma’am
But they didn’t spend the money. Making an offer that isn’t close to the best offer isn’t exactly trying your best.
6/210m with an opt out after two years instead of 4/180m?
It’s actually fairly close. Say the opt out adds on average $15m to the first deal. That means if Burnes takes the second deal he’d need 2/45m for his age 34-35 seasons or 2/45m as the base component of a longer deal.
For a six year deal, typically 50+% of a players value comes in the first two years, and nobody wants to actually sign the player for the last 1-2 years of the contract, it’s just the price you have to pay. Even the fourth year of six usually isn’t worth the AAV.
Figure the %, year by year of the value returned on a 6-year deal is something like 30-23-17-13-10-7, so the value runs $63m, 48.3m, 35.7m, 27.3m, 21m, 14.7m, so if Corbin took the 4-year deal he’d be looking for more money than he could figure on getting that offseason for his age 34 and up seasons.
It’s obviously close, though. Close enough that if he’s in better health than the average for a 30 yo FA pitcher that could easily tip the balance.
———-
Weird: Google’s ‘AI’ (it really, really isn’t) thinks that Corbin Burnes had Tommy John surgery on June 12, 2023 and is ‘expected to miss the majority of the 2024 season.’
I call bull… if the team offered this they should’ve made this public statement right after he signed the contract.
And because you called bull it of course didn’t happen
Agreed. Elias should have a ton of heat on him, he found a friendly ear.
That’s why reporters have jobs. They make statements through them.
Orioles: coulda, woulda, nope.
As Jack points out, with the opt out, the deals are quite similar.
Now for us prolls and regular working stiffs…eh $180 mil….. $210 mil….it’s just serious effing coin either way.
That’s like top Majorca drug dealer money. The amounts are so mindblowingly huge it is hard to fathom.
Burnes will make $3 mil per month. That is close to the same amount a decent regulae Joe earner makes in 30 years……
Baltimore offer opt out?
Can’t blame the Os on this one, but why didn’t they go after Freid? And why don’t we hear anything about extending one of the young guys?
Who needs a top end pitcher to replace Burnes when Charlie Morton was available?
Yankees wanted Fried. You want to try to outbid them? Lose a high draft pick? Sounds awful to me. Could have done something else or more though.
Should have signed Flaherty. That was a damn steal.
Heaney looks great so far for 5m
Lots of deals. Just gotta find them.
Always liked Heaney.
The current start of the season for my O’s starting pitching notwithstanding, wish we could’ve kept the man but good for him for making the best decision for himself and his family. He may be starting slow so far but its literally like the second week of the season, he’ll be his usual self sooner rather than later.
Just imho, his K’s and K/W have been declining for a while now.
Yeah, Burnes took the better offer. More money and a lower state income tax than Maryland, where he would be playing half his games.
What a dope. He could get a career ending contract injury and then what? How much money do these guys need? What if there’s a strike and a salary cap results? And I doubt he can do any better. He’s not an all time great.
He chose to be close to family and secured $30 mil more. Hard to say he made a bad choice. Plus with the opt out, he has a little more control of his destiny and in theory could make more money. But we’ll see
10 mil AAV gap.. makes you wonder if he could’ve gotten a 40-45 mil AAV deal from Arizona had he passed up the option out and was ok with 4-5 years instead… if he wanted to be on the west coast so bad why need the opt out?
I mean would you rather live in Baltimore or Phoenix? Pretty easy decision considering you’re a multimillionaire any way you slice it. It may be hot in Phoenix, but there is very little, if any, humidity. Not to mention the surrounding area is some of the most beautiful parts of the country. It also looks amazingly clean because all the utility lines are underground. You’d be surprised how different it looks when there aren’t electrical wires stringing everywhere. Plus almost every restaurant/bar has outdoor seating with misters. Just watch out for the scorpions and rattlers.
I think there’s an assumption that the player must take the highest dollar offer or the highest AAV offer.
Odd how the Orioles didn’t come right out after Burnes signed with the full terms they offered, which would have been positive PR for them not for the fans but for any player/agent “we’re serious about winning NOW.” Something doesn’t quite add up with the information that has been provided to date. I think we ordered a pizza but it arrived with a slice or two missing…
If they were willing to spend TOR money, there were other TOR guys available to sign or for trade. Certainly they gave out a similar amount of $ for one year for 3 guys’ worth of back end guys which is NOT the same as having a top end guy which has quickly become apparent. It gave only the illusion of contending, though some on this site argued vehemently how very smart Elias was!
But if 5-8 becomes 30-40 going into July…which it could because its going to be tough to stay in a lot of games without starting pitching… its pretty easy to unload all these guys on 1 year deals. They won’t get much back and yet another year of the window is lost. But at least some of the geniuses here won’t argue “they don’t have a losing record and a $200 million payroll committed for 2026, Elias is a genius”.