April 29: It’s now official, with Strowd optioned for Gibson’s recall, per a club announcement.
April 28: The Orioles list Kyle Gibson as the probable starter for tomorrow evening’s game against the Yankees. He’ll match up against Carlos Rodón in what will be his season debut. Gibson is already on the 40-man roster but will need to be recalled from High-A Aberdeen after agreeing to be optioned to the minor leagues.
Baltimore signed the veteran righty to a one-year, $5.25MM free agent deal on March 21. Gibson had spent the entire offseason on the open market after the Cardinals declined their $12MM option on his services. He’d thrown side sessions independently but signed too late to get any kind of game action. As with most pitchers who sign in the latter half of March, Gibson consented to a minor league assignment that could serve as a kind of unofficial Spring Training.
The 37-year-old Gibson has made a trio of starts — two at Triple-A Norfolk and his most recent with Aberdeen. That start came on April 20. Gibson reached five innings and 78 pitches. He’ll also be on over a week of rest, so he should be able to take something close to a typical starting workload tomorrow.
It’ll kick off the second O’s stint for Gibson, who absorbed 192 innings with a 4.73 ERA for the club two seasons back. A reliable source of back-of-the-rotation innings, Gibson worked to a 4.24 mark across 169 2/3 frames for St. Louis last year. He’ll slot alongside Tomoyuki Sugano, Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer and Cade Povich in Brandon Hyde’s rotation. The O’s lost Zach Eflin to a mild lat strain a few weeks ago, while Grayson Rodriguez is at least a month away amidst elbow and lat injuries. Albert Suárez, who entered the regular season in long relief after battling for the fifth starter role in camp, suffered a subscapularis strain during his first appearance and promptly landed on the 60-day injured list himself.
Baltimore will need to option a pitcher tomorrow. Kade Strowd, who was called up this afternoon but did not get into their 4-3 win against New York, seems likely to head back to Norfolk.
They messed-up not giving Corbin the bag. The rotation was very sus BEFORE Grayson went down.
Jury is out on Corbin but they definitely should’ve done something
I think Burnes really just wanted to be in Arizona with his family in my opinion. However, my O’s not doing anything to replace that level of production is completely ridiculous. Sugano at this point is our only great move this off season. There was literally no back up or replacement plans in case people got injured and no reliable proven option to carry the pitching staff until you got some of your injured/rehabbing arms back.
I do wonder if the new owner told the front office not to make any long-term contract signings until after the next CBA is negotiated. It might be a bet by the O’s that the terms will be more favorable to the teams than the current CBA, a business move rather than a baseball one. Just a wild guess though
They could have signed a better pitching staff on short term deals. This organization has no excuse for closing their window so quick.
Again, for the 1000th time. Free agents sign where they want, not where they get the most money.
You can say anything for 1000 times but that doesn’t make it true.
It’s absolutely true. Kind of the whole point of free agency.
99.9% of players go were the largest contract is. Free agency was created to get the players paid more.
Morton looked OK last year. No reason to expect an implosion… sugano was a risk but there was depth to cover… until all the depth went on IL in spring training. Would I like fried? Or even the current crappy burnes. Yes but in 4 years likely not and ded not in year 8 of friends deal. Rather them go after cease this fall
Burned had the velocity drop concerns so maybe good thing he passed on 180 mill. He maybe knew he wouldn’t make 15m a year after 4 yrs…
I agree. The O’s didn’t offer up anything further than the 4 year offer because they knew they’d be used as leverage for more money with Arizona. Corbin or nothing, was a terrible strategy.
People here think MLB is rotisserie league, so if the team pays the price they get the player.
MLB players are human beings.
Last night the Yankees broadcasters mentioned that FA pitchers don’t particularly want to sign to pitch in Camden Yards because it’s a hitters park. That has been known for a long time. The FO has been screwing around with the field dimensions the past few years. Who knows what they’ll be the next 3-5 years.
Fact is this: The O’s are on a youth kick which everyone in MLB knows but few of the posters here have figured out. Most of those young players don’t play fundamental defense – both in performing at their positions (many are playing at the wrong position) as well as playing the position smartly (Mullins does and he wants to stay, but the FO won’t talk to his agent). Add in that the pitching coach is (being polite) not very good.
Mr. Burnes played for the O’s in 2024, so he knows the situation. He – and most quality FA pitchers – are not about to sign a long-term contract with that team if they have somewhere else to go….even if they get less money.
They messed up by not signing numerous starters including Patrick Corbin, Quintana, Severino, Heaney.
Patrick Corbin had a 5 something era why would they sign him
He currently would have the 2nd lowest ERA on the Orioles staff for the cost of $1.1mil
“They messed up”…No one thought Patrick Corbin was going to be useful this year. Criticizing a GM for not targeting Patrick Corbin sounds ludicrous.
The “experts” of the MLBTRADERUMORS peanut gallery are the greatest hindsight GMs(and Monday morning QBs)of all time. It’s amazing how much clarity one has after the fact.
Everyone’s a genius with benefit of hindsight. Can you tell us who we should have signed two years ago? Can you also tell us who won last year’s World Series?
Yeah, and so far into the 2020s, Corbin has given up the most hits, earned runs, and home runs by any pitcher in baseball, all of which he leads by a wide margin of 133 hits, 83 ER, and 13 HRS. Corbin getting off to an okay start, where he still only has a 100 ERA+ and 4.49 FIP, does not make him a huge whiff by the Orioles.
I think he was talking about Burnes.
BigDog25
Patrick Corbin had a 5 something era why would they sign him
===========================
The casual fans just look at today’s stats to see who their team should’ve signed 3-4 months ago.
When will people get it through their heads that as long as Burnes received a fair offer from Arizona he was guaranteed to sign there? His family just welcomed twin girls last summer and he told anybody who was listening that he wanted to be as close to home as possible moving forward. Multiple reports had the O’s offering Burnes a deal with a $45 million AAV across three or four seasons. If that wasn’t enough to do the trick I don’t know what was.
Burnes is at an age where you knew he wasnt going to sign a 4 year deal. The O’s knew that too. That’s fine but Burnes isn’t Trevor Bauer who was going to take less years for more money and keep betting on himself when more guaranteed was on the table and closer to his geographic preference:
Elias knew all of this.
thanks for sharing your wisdom.
Good luck, Gibson! STL fan, he ate lots of innings, positive vet influence.
Gibby had as many wins for os in 2023 as burnes in 2024…
Gibby requires 5 or 6 runs of support in each start to get a win. He got it in 2023. In 2025 he’s Morton Lite with the current offense.
Assuming an average of 6 IP per start, that would be an ERA of around 7.00. Both Gibson’s career ERA and especially over the last couple of years are well below 5.00.
Lanldrac – I’ll give you the average of 6 IP per start, he’s just under that (5.2+)
First, you’re assuming a scoreless stint by the bullpen.
In 2023, he gave up 4 runs or more 11x, which was 1/3 of his starts. Those were also the outings he tended not to go the 6 IP. He won 2 of those, got ND 3x (Orioles won 1) and the remainder were losses. He was pretty lucky. In 9 others he gave up 3 runs, so we have 20/33.
That year he led the league in hits allowed and walks 3.2 guys per 9 in his career. So if he leaves an inning in progress, a lot of times guys coming into score.
So if he averages 3 or 4 runs given up in 6 IP, then the bullpen gives up at least 1 run over the final 3 innings, the Orioles have to score at least 5 or 6 runs in 20/33 starts to win. If the bullpen gives up more than 1 run, then its 25/33 of his 2023 starts (his 2-run outings). He is simply a below average pitcher who requires run support.
Since the 2025 Orioles are currently averaging 4.00 runs per game, if he pitches like 2023 (no guarantee, he’s 37 now), they should expect to win about 39% of his starts…which is about what they’re doing this year anyway… and 28% of the time he pitches well enough if they lose its not his fault.
OK, yes, we do have to consider the bullpen, and an average of 1 run allowed every 3 innings sounds about right.. (Keep in mind that the starts of fewer than 6 IP were countered by the starts of over 6 IP).
However, Gibson has been averaging about 3 earned runs per game over the last two years (not 3 to 4), plus a little extra for unearned runs, That means he gave up fewer than 3 runs almost as often as he gave up 4 or more. That still left plenty of starts for the Orioles in 2023 and the Cardinals in 2024 where the team only needed 4 runs of support or less to win the game (and team wins are what matters, not personal Wins for Gibson).
Yes, that also means plenty of starts with more that 4 runs of support required to win, but that’s not true for EACH start like you claimed.
Lanidrac
Well, I didn’t expect THAT yesterday. I thought he would go 5-6 innings and give up 4.
To your point, he was actually both better and worse for the Cardinals last year meaning there was very little middle ground (4 starts of 3 earned runs allowed). 16 good starts – 2 or less earned runs allowed – out of 30. 10 bad ones of 4+ earned runs allowed which also tended to be his shorter ones – he only had 6 outings of less than 5 innings – 4 were when he gave up 4+ runs. In the 5th short start – 4 IP – I’ll give a team win since it was the Orioles and he shut them out for 4, they won 5-4.
The Cardinals went 9-7 in his effective outings….and still 4-6 in in his ineffective outings. So here he wasn’t setting them up for wins as much in his good outings and killing them in bad outings as you’d expect. The Cardinals averaged 4.33 runs in games Gibson started, his ERA was 4.24, his 8-8 record rings true.
In 2023, the Orioles scored 5.27 runs in Gibson outings, better than his 4.73 ERA. They went 20-13 in his starts, lower than their overall win percentage. They were 9-4 when he gave up 2 or less, but only 3-8 when he gave up 4 or more. Here’s the difference – in games he gave up exactly 3, they went 8-1 and the sole loss was by 1 run. So the 2023 Orioles were carrying Gibson more than the 2024 Cardinals, and 15-9 included a little more luck.
The 2025 squad doesn’t have any other options right now so he’s going to get a few starts to see which of our theories turns out. He had minimal unearned runs in 2023 (noted, highly unusual). With Gunnar having the bobbles, I don’t expect that to continue.
The Orioles have to start scoring runs though. At 4 runs per game, it makes at least 3/4 of Gibson’s starts irrelevant from the get-go and we’ll never see who’s carrying who. He also can’t give up 3 gopher balls before recording his first out that makes the analysis too easy.
He will get at least 2-3 starts through a run of Twins/Nats/Angels. Let’s talk again in 3 or 4 weeks, it will be interesting.
No idea why the O’s didn’t go after Crochet. They had the prospects to get it done but just sat on their hands.
Maybe a little gun shy to pull the trigger because of tj injuries to Bradish, Wells (2×) and Means (2x) early last season?
I don’t get it. And so many fans on here were okay with the lack of moves. Crazy
I thought they made plenty of moves on the pitching side.
They didn’t get Burnes … a #1 with a durability history. So, in their minds, they did the next prudent thing. Sign durability guys Morton, Surgano and Gibson on 1yr deals to fill out the rotation to bridge to injury guys like Bradish, Wells and Rodriguez. Yes? Anyway, that’s how I see it.
The hitting is where they did little. They needed to bring in an adult bat or 2. My definition of an adult bat? Guys with playoff experience that have average to above average slash lines in that atmosphere (see Torres in Detroit).
I could see the logic somewhat with the O’Neil signing. Bring him in in hopes of some right handed bat production but just as important it would take pressure off Mountcastle to get back to form. Oopsy!
You mean just kept the one they had?
2012-
I never was.
The Orioles can’t (won’t) develop, obtain, or invest in top of the rotation arms. They knew all winter that Bradish would not be back until at least ASB and the injury prone Rodriguez was coming off another one. (Wells is not included, he tops out at 100 IP per year and is a mid-rotation guy, more a swing man). They knew full well they had Eflin and were hoping for another miracle out of journeyman Suarez, hoping Kremer would show something he hadn’t shown for four years already, hoping Povich would turn one month of good starts into a full year, etc. They sat on their hands through the winter meetings, through Dec and Jan while the top types of guys signed elsewhere or were traded to other teams.
The O’Neill/Sanchez moves were overhyped. I saw them as replacements for Santander/McCann, nothing more. They hoped O’Neill could produce Santander type #’s in the 120-130 games they hoped he could play. Backup catchers are backup catchers, but Sanchez is a disappointment even for that. Then they “spent” as required on the arbitration side for all the young guys.
Sugano was them trying to spend less for an aging player from Japan instead of market rate. We’re seeing a bit better than average stuff so far (only been a few starts). I felt Morton was desperation $ thrown at a guy who was going to retire. Gibson definitely was out of desperation. I kept saying a lot of guys competing for the 4/5 spot while you have no 1 and no 2 isn’t the same as having a strong rotation but the so called experts here disagreed.
By the way while everyone’s focused on the rotation, let’s not forget that while guys like Akin, Baker, Bowman, and Cano have been excellent and the primary reason the team isn’t even worse, they are racking up tons of appearances early. We are looking at a “fried by July” situation here, so let’s not forget what they’re doing now if/when that occurs. Also, why does Cionel Perez still get put into games? He is an abject disaster. Just because he’s a lefty?
I think they needed a bat with high OBP/great ability to work the count. I thought they had that with further progress from within. The regression that has come instead is alarming. Rutschman is finally showing patience again which is the only positive. But neither him, nor Gunnar, Westburg, nor Kjerstad is showing 2024 form. Not even close, they look lost. Holliday is showing progress but he needed to.
I am convinced that O’Hearn and Mullins knew they weren’t part of the plans and are playing for their next deals elsewhere. Urias isn’t as good as shown but he has been productive when given consistent playing time. Mountcastle has always been streaky but this is extra cold even for him. Sanchez is awful and Mateo has wasted a roster spot for a couple years running and somehow leads the team in errors despite barely playing…does one particular commentator who just loves his athleticism and claims I don’t understand what he brings to the team care to comment about his wonderful defense and even lower hitting stats now???
So it goes.
100% well said.
Yankees are going to destroy Gibson tonight. I will be shocked if he gets to the 5th.
Yanks bats will come alive, but i think Os bats start hitting LH pitching.
9-5 Yanks
Well said. Mateo should have been traded after the 2022 season, or at the latest after the 2023 season. Even if he was playing decently, they still have no place to play him with this roster. Eflin is a nice player but you’re not a serious contender if he’s your Opening Day starter, with a 41-year-old Charlie Morton behind him.
Showtime – playing the odds, small chance he holds them to 2 runs or less over 5 or 6 innings and also odds are the Orioles break out of it sometime, just regression to the mean to even out only averaging 4 runs per game.
But the Yankees are not a likely team for this to occur against.
Do you reach up and pay a guy 15M in desperation? He was also one of the first pitchers in FA to sign.
Baltimore signed Morton because he has consistently been healthy and had consistently pitched a lot of innings.
Gibson shelled for five homers in his first start. Does he get another start?
Nice call.
“Yankees are going to destroy Gibson tonight.”
But you couldn’t have had 3 HR before the first out in mind when you said that!
Release Morton, plain and simple!
Morton looked good in long relief comparably to Gibson. Id say Morton to the bullpen. He’ll like it and could potentially be good in relief.
Out of necessity instead of luxury. Man the Os window shut fast ! Thats what happens when you put all your faith in top ranked prospects. Sooo many hadn’t/didnt pan out that were rank 1 or top 10 or top 25. Wild !
Corbin Burnes Has a 5.63 xERA
and the sad thing is, he’d currently slot as the clear #2 behind Sugano with that
Far too many Os fans in here don’t know Burnes’ stats. I get everyone wants to win today, but the $210M he’d have cost is $210M that cannot be paid the Gunnar, Holiday, etc.
Joe;
Maybe yes. Maybe no.
If either of those guys actually turn into super ballplayers their agents will place them elsewhere when they hit FA.
I have doubts that either will be superstars, but believe that Jackson will prove to be the better player. He’s a better fundamental player. Far higher Baseball IQ. And far, far more disciplined on the field (i.e. doesn’t do dumb things).
Sugano gave the Orioles something to cheer about last night. Keegan Akin had a nice outing in relief.
But the Orioles have far more problems than their pitching.
The O’s are hitting just .177/.257/.234 against left handed pitching on the season.
Too many rh batters with better track records for that to last
The only one with track record is Henderson and he isn’t carrying the team by himself.
Skubal mowed down 11 Orioles in six innings on Sunday.
Orioles need to sign rich hill he’d do better than morton
Id agree with Rich Hill as a better option that Morton and Gibson.
Pirates setting there with all that good young pitching!? Trade something to get something!
I was really hoping the Pirates and O’s made a trade this offseason. Maybe another prospect-for-prospect swap like Heston Kjerstad for one of the Pirates’ non-Bubba Chandler pitching prospects.
Kjerstad was overdrafted, is already 26, and hasn’t shown much, although he’s been in and out of the lineup. (And lost some developmental time to myocarditis, which thankfully cleared up.) It spoke volumes that rather than giving him a full-time job after Santander left they signed the oft-injured Tyler O’Neill. Kjerstad is basically Kyle Stowers… and look what the O’s got for him.
Ian Anderson is available again. Give him couple starts at Norfolk and see what he can do?
If Elias waits until deadline to make a trade the season will be lost
LOL
The season IS lost.
They’re tanking. Playing the youngsters over the vets, and will be sellers going into the trading deadline.
I figured that out in the offseason. It’s more obvious every day. That team has no chance of contending at all. Sometimes they hit well and get some decent pitching for a game or two. But usually they don’t. And their defense and situational hitting are maybe 2 on a scale of 1 to 10.
I moved on. The Reds are playing smart fundamental baseball under Francona. The FO brought him in the players he wanted (including Austin Hayes….boy did the O’s FO mess up bigtime there) – and none of them were big-time sexy players……just guys that know how to play the sport at the ML level to help their team win games.
Samuel
You crack me up!
The Reds are 16-13. Half of their wins are against the Rockies, Pirates, and Orioles. One of the Orioles wins was a Morton start which shouldn’t even count. Half of their + run differential on the season comes from that one game, and the rest from the Pirates and Rockies.
I see Austin Hays is hitting .365 with 5 HR and 13 RBI in 58 AB. That’s primarily because he’s almost an exclusive platoon player now. Having followed the Orioles for years, you do know Hays is only good for a couple months of good play and then a prolonged slump? Just like 2023? Oh yeah, and at least one injury. What’s this I see? Today’s news – Hays being examined for “tender hamstring”. Uh oh!
You must love Elly de la Cruz who is everything you dreamed Mateo could have been, do you care that he’s already leading the league with 6 errors after leading the league with 29 last year? (Your boy Mateo has 4 already despite barely playing BTW). Elly makes Gunnar look like Mark Belanger.
You neglected to mention former Oriole Austin Wynns who will certainly continue to hit at a .433 clip and hit 3 HR per month as a 34 year old backup catcher, while Jose Trevino the starting catcher will continue to hit 100 points above his career average. No regression will occur there, just like no regression the other way for the 5 or 6 Orioles hitting well below their norms.
I suspect you won’t be as sunny about them come July 4. The Reds might be a bit better than they were last year but I wouldn’t take PTO in October for the World Series just yet.
LOL
Right.
Mullins is an “in between player”.
Do you realize that I’ve been right about things on this board over 80% of the time. Seldom miss the big things.
That organization has it feet planted firmly in the air.
23 year-old Gunner Henderson is not remotely 23 year-old Carlos Correa.
Samuel
80%? Wow. I wish I was on that kind of grading curve.
“Seldom miss the big things”
Off the top of my head, here are some of the ones we have sparred about:
– Cole Irvin. It started with me expressing concern about his splits away from Oakland Coliseum when the Orioles picked him up. You insisted he was the diamond in a rough, smart find that Elias could find and the Orioles could turn into a rotation mainstay.
– Mateo, He’ll be hard pressed to even post a .267 OBP again this year and has proven so valuable to the team he’s become a pinch runner.
– Need for top of the rotation arms. You insisted that wasn’t required. Please take a look at the Orioles rotation and come back to me on that one!
And now we have another one. Yes, 23 year old Gunnar Henderson is not remotely 23 year old Carlos Correa Because Gunnar has already hit over 30 HR in a year, something Correa has never done, He runs more than Correa ever has. He has already drawn more walks in a season than Correa ever has. He also has been above average in SS range while Correa was usually at or below average. Let me guess, you’re looking at errors and the one season Correa had otherworldly fielding. (My opinion is, Holliday should go to SS, Henderson to 3B, Westburg to 2B, Urias UIF, Mateo DFA)
As for Mullins, there’s a book on him. He’s an in between player for a few reasons. One, because (until this season when he suddenly is) he hasn’t hit lefties so he probably can’t play every day as a truly dependable hitting piece (.655 OPS vs LHP). His average season of 162 is 21 HR, .253 batting average, which is a little above average player (IN BETWEEN average and very good). He’s not the 30/30 guy each year just like he’s not the guy who hit .170 the first half of last year. His defensive stats have steadily declined each of the past four seasons We’re seeing the magic of a contract year so far.
I admitted my worst take – Bradish – and even then we still haven’t seen a full season of ace quality work from him. I don’t get snarky at others who are wrong here except yours. I’m sure my winning percentage is well north of 50% too but I’m not going to put the other commenters down with it. With one exception. Its higher than yours.
I have to go to work now, but I am having surgery later this summer so I’ll have time to go back and find some others. I’ll start a Samuel’s Bad Takes thread.
@Samuel
I know you muted me, but since you talk about rotisserie leagues so much, you seem to switch and assign yourself to teams to root for like a rotisserie league yourself: when one is winning you root for them and when they’re lost, you replace them with another winning team.
Steinbrenner – we should remember this because one day if he’s around long enough and the Rockies are good and he’s all over them, we should ask where he was when they were 5-24.
Roster moves should have been placing Perez on waivers !😡
GM should be fired for the offseason misfires; who would have thought you could replace Burnes with a combo of Morton, sugimoto & now Gibson? That’s no bob either…Last year’s deal for Rogers was a bad sign that he lost the script…
His last name is spelled Sugano, Dano.
For being on the roster one day and not pitching, Kade Strowd now qualifies for health insurance for the rest of his life.
Always awesome to see someone make their big league debut. Congratulations Kyle
He had the gopher ball working tonite.
Gibson pitched quite generously tonight
and was greatly appreciated by the Yankee hitters
Good old fashioned shellacking!