This week's mailbag gets into potential starting pitcher trade targets for the Cubs, possible left-handed bats for the Astros, which Rangers have trade value, infield options for the Yankees, and the Mets' reported connection to Luis Robert Jr.
Colin asks:
As great as Colin Rea and Matt Boyd have been this season, the Cubs need more starting pitching, especially with Steele out for the year and Imanaga out for a couple more turns through the rotation. Sandy Alcantara seems like an obvious shout, but he has struggled so far this year. Who else could the Cubs feasibly target?
Marc asks:
Do you think the Cubs can survive til the trade deadline considering the perilous situation their in with starters?
I do think the Cubs can survive until the trade deadline with a rotation of Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, Ben Brown, and Jameson Taillon, with Imanaga probably rejoining sometime in June. I also don't think they have much of a choice, as sellers rarely make early deals.
But yes, the Cubs need to add a starter this summer. Boyd has not topped 88 innings in a season since 2019, a threshold he's projected to reach on June 25th. I made the case in March that Boyd's recent injury history doesn't necessarily mean he can't get to 150+ innings, but he is 34 and the Cubs' depth can't be pushed much further. Ben Brown has never exceeded 104 innings, and he's on pace to get there by the end of July. Cade Horton's career high is 88 1/3 innings in 2023. In his next outing he'll pass last year's total of 34 1/3 frames.
The following teams have less than a 1% chance at the playoffs, so most of them could probably be persuaded to trade a starting pitcher now: the White Sox, Nationals, Marlins, Pirates, and Rockies. The Angels belong here as well, but since they're 4.5 games out of a wild card, perhaps they'll need more time to wave the white flag. Here's a look at starting pitchers who might be available from these clubs:
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What would the Cubs give up for Tyler Anderson?
Ideally the Angels would cover a decent portion of the contract for a better return, but we all know Arte is too short sighted to do that.
6 moldy hot dog buns.
Tidwell for Helsley? That would be a robbery. Tidwell is a highly touted disappointment. Since he hasn’t performed so well at AAA, why expect anything from him? Looked bad in his first start last week.
It’s way too early for the Cubs to start wheeling and dealing for a starter. Horton and Brown could combine to be 1 starter at the end and keep both of their innings down. Hopefully nobody goes down before Imanaga comes back. I don’t know what’s up with Birdsell or Assad or McCullough as they’re all on the 60 day list. Finding out anything about minor league injuries is like pulling teeth. Wiggins just got promoted to AA and might be in AAA next year to be in the mix. Let’s go through all the internal options before the FO starts panicking. Not to mention all the options that might be promising are mostly pitching like crap right now. Now is not the time to panic. Plus they still have Noland and Wicks. So there’s still depth we already have. Veteran Closer? Different story.
Uncle, I don’t know much about Noland, but you often mention him and you usually know what you’re talking about. Is he a possibility to pitch *this* year?
On another topic, who’s worse, John Schriffen or Alex Cohen?
Conor Noland at Iowa
3-1, 3.86 ERA 31 K’s, 12 BB’s 1.17 Whip 7 starts 35 IP’s
25 years old 2022 9th round pick.
Always keeps you in the game and could go longer but 5 innings is all he ever gets.
He’s not Horton he’s just solid.
As far as the announcers go yeah that’s bad either way IMO. They remind me of the idiot the Sox got to replace Benneti who I didn’t like at first but he grew on me. Luckily I can’t watch the Sox so I don’t have to put up with him anymore. As far as why Noland isn’t in the top 30 prospects that’s another mystery.
As usual Uncle your pretty much on point. I do have a concern about Jed panicking and making a deal down the road where he over pays for a starter. A starter who would likely be costly and not end up not moving the the needle upward. Jed’s in his final year. So a dying man usually makes desperate decisions.
@Fred: I am less concerned about this than I was a few weeks ago because I don’t think Jed’s job is in real jeopardy. I suspect that, if the Cubs don’t make the playoffs, the Ricketts will blame it on Steele’s injury and give Jed a pass.
From what I hear about Jed’s security is this: At the end of last season, there was rather serious talk about an extension. The goal for both sides was to get a deal done before the General Manager’s meetings. Didn’t happen. Then try to get a deal done before the Winter Meetings. Didn’t happen. Both sides felt uncomfortable heading into these meetings with a lame duck President of Baseball Operations. We can all agree that’s demonstrating little faith. So, what’s the deal here. The main obstacle is Jed wants more money to spend. Can’t blame the guy. Rickets is not willing to do that. He is determined to stay below the luxury tax. Both sides have agreed to go into this this season and see what happens at the end.
@Fred: Ricketts does seem to see the luxury tax as a de facto cap. But Hoyer has surely spent what money he has been given unwisely, on many occasions. As Bill Veeck, of blessed memory, said so long ago, the problem with free agency is “the high price of mediocrity.” Hoyer pays too much for mediocrity, especially washed-up players.
No doubt. Free agency across all major sports is a gamble. I will also say, some of the higher end or elite players flame out and settle into average or maybe just above once those big deals are made. Some, not all. It’s a gamble.
Fred- It’s what he does. It’s his MO. Hoyer-10 years of futility. Scott Harris Hoyer’s old assistant- 2 years and in the playoffs. Harris inherited a good young farm system and some bad contracts. Difference= Harris didn’t panic and played his good young people and gave them a chance. Breslow another Hoyer assistant. Has the Red Sox in the hunt in his 2nd year. Hoyer- Still throwing up Hail Mary’s galore. He’ll keep doing it. And if they re sign him 10 will turn into 11 and 12……..and so on. But you all told me to give it a rest so……..OK.. Has Hoyer made some good moves? Sure. PCA, Kelly, Tallion, Imanaga. Good. But the bad far outweighs the good. Sorry. Now I rest.
Agree with you totally on principle, Uncle. But I’m not sure that many, perhaps any, of Jed’s prospects were/are as good as Harris’s or Breslow’s. The Cubs’ tendency to draft prospects with (supposedly) high floors and low ceilings is part of what hasn’t worked. To me, for instance, Wicks was a very bad first-round pick.
When you watch this weekend’s games, have a look, for example, at Quero and Meidroth. Somehow the Cubs have not drafted (or acquired) that kind of young talent.
The absolute highlight at the home games of the Cubs is when Colin Rea sings the National Anthem to start the games and his vocal renderings during the 7th inning stretch. Always enjoy hearing his performances as he still has “it” when delivering his hits: “Love, Me”, “In This Life”, “My Kind of Girl”, “I Can Still Feel You”, “That’s My Story”, and my personal favorites, “One Boy, One Girl” and the Phil Vassar penned, “Little Red Rodeo”. Memories………
Great to see you on here, Mrs. Rea.
Man, Jameson Taillon- I remember when the Yankees traded for him and even his journey through free agency.
Taillon is one of the prime examples of the premium value placed on pitching- although to me one of the most egregious examples of pitching being over valued is still Andrew Heaney’s 1 year/$8.5M Dodgers deal and then his 2 years/$25M Rangers deal.
Anyway- Taillon, Heaney, UBALDO JIMENEZ! Remember that guy? Couldn’t locate his pitches to save his life, threw 100 MPH but wild or gave up bombs or loaded bases on walks, etc and still got 4 years/$50M (likely modern equivalent would be like 4 years/$75M for the same kind of expected production in the back of a weak rotation)
Ubaldo’s contract was the Orioles convinced that they had outsmarted everyone. We got a Cy Young contender so much cheaper than everyone else is paying!
The Orioles front office of that era also decided that giving a 4th year to Nelson Cruz wasn’t a good idea in 2015 but panic-extending Chris Davis for 7/161M a year later when no one else was calling him was the best move ever. By the way, Jake Arrieta, you are forbidden to throw a cutter because that will never work.
Hahahaha.
That’s an impressive streak of awful educated guessing.
Do the Cubs need a SP? When Taillon is the supposed ace of your staff, the answer is a resounding, “Yes!”. Losing Steele isn’t quite comparable to the Braves losing Strider last year, but it’s close. Big holes have to be filled, and the Cubs will have to overpay for a SP. The Cardinals have three pretty good SP in the minors (Mathews, Hence and McGreevy). I’m sure their plan was to trade away guys like Mikolas, Matz, Fedde and maybe even Gray to make room for them. But the Cards are doing better than most expected, so if that is to happen, it won’t be now.
The Cubs/Cards rarely if ever do business.
You deal 16 years of Lou Brock & 2,713 hits for Ernie Broglio, Doug Clemens, and Bobby Shantz, it leaves a mark.
Even if that was in 1964.