There’s not been much for fans on the South Side of Chicago to get excited about of late. The club’s lengthy rebuild in the 2010s assembled a core that included well-regarded pieces like Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, and Luis Robert Jr. but did not translate to much success on the field; the group ultimately made it to the playoffs in 2020 and ’21 but lost in the first round both years before regressing to an 81-81 record in 2022 and kicking off the latest rebuild.
Since then, White Sox fans have watched that core get dismantled, whether via trades or declined club options, and breakout ace Garrett Crochet followed them out the door over the offseason. Crochet’s excellent pitching performances were the one highlight of the White Sox season this side of the Campfire Milkshake, so that left fans with little to look forward to in 2025… or so we thought. In reality, the White Sox seem to have replaced their dominant ace with another potential front-of-the-rotation arm who came from the most unlikely of places: the Rule 5 draft.
Righty Shane Smith was plucked from the Brewers’ organization and made Chicago’s Opening Day rotation out of Spring Training. It was difficult to know what to expect from Smith, given that an organization as well-regarded for its pitching development as Milwaukee was comfortable leaving the righty unprotected this past winter. That’s quickly proving to have been a mistake. Through his first ten starts of the season, Smith has posted a sterling 2.36 ERA that stands as the eleventh-best figure among qualified starters this year, just ahead of Paul Skenes.
ERA is an imperfect estimator of talent, of course, and Smith’s personal figure is deflated by the fact that a six-run, five-inning outing against the Cubs saw five of those runs scored as unearned. Even setting ERA aside, however, his season has been an impressive one so far: a 3.32 FIP (26th) and 3.57 xERA (t-29th) lend credence to the idea of Smith as a potential front-end arm, even if he isn’t quite in the Cy Young conversation based on those more advanced metrics. Have the White Sox truly found a diamond in the rough, or is Smith’s hot start to his career just a flash in the pan?
Overall, Smith’s profile is a solid one, but there are signs that it’s closer to that of a league average starter than anything else. His 22.0% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate are both middle of the pack, and a 45.3% ground ball rate is above-average but not exactly elite. His .259 BABIP and 5.9% home run to fly ball ratio are both top-of-the-scale, but neither of those figures are particularly skill-interactive or sustainable, particularly for a hurler who rarely generates soft contact. If anything, those figures are potential red flags that indicate risk of future regression. Smith’s 3.96 SIERA and 97 xFIP- paint him as a roughly average MLB starter as well, offering all the more reason to think he might regress.
There are reasons for optimism as well, however. Smith generates swinging strikes at a well above average clip, which could be a sign for strikeout potential beyond the average rates that he’s shown to this point. An uptick in strikeouts would raise the floor on his whole profile in a way that could allow him to keep producing at this level. Even without that, however, it’s fair to point out that there have certainly been pitchers who have found consistent MLB success over the years despite mediocre underlying data. Smith’s metrics are better than, as one example, those of Javier Assad on the other side of town. Assad has a career 3.40 ERA across nearly 300 innings in the majors despite lackluster metrics, and that’s a figure any team would happily take from a Rule 5 pick.
How do MLBTR readers think Smith will pan out going forward? Will he be able to find another gear and keep producing like a front-half of the rotation arm, will he settle in as more of a reliable back-end starter, or will this hot start prove to be a total mirage? Have your say in the poll below:
It’s a nice pickup and he’s doing well. Luckily for him, he’ll keep getting playing time with Chicago. Unfortunately for him, his scouting report is getting built up. But a fun story.
Well that and with the Sox lack of coaching (the pitching coach has his face glued to cartoons on his iPad in the dugout) he will be above average at best or traded if he is anything decent, or above average as the Sox will not want to have to pay him when its time. .
Of all the reasons I could come up with why the Sox struggled last year, I never would have thought of pitching as a problem, especially not the pitching coach. That’s a wild take. They continue to have pitchers yield high trade returns: Cease, Crochet, Fedde, Santos, Kopech. And still get seemingly nobodies to pitch well: old Lynn, Smith, Martin, Cannon. The problem all along has been the position players, notably Robert, Moncada, Vaughn, Anderson all collapsing rather than taking a step forward.
I never said its the sole reason for the Sox failings. Its also not a ‘wild take’ (well maybe to someone not watching Sox games over the past 4 years). When I see Kopech in the dugout talking to Grifol for advice while Katz (sitting right next to Kopech mind you) has his nose buried in his stupid tablet, I see that as a major issue, never mind the lack of mound visits to talk to his pitchers, and yeah I get there are mound visit limits but if your pitcher just gave up two straight doubles and walked a guy to the bases loaded, maybe that is the time to go out to the pitcher, not after he gives up a double to drive in the 3 runs. Which I have seen those type of scenarios play out with this team with Katz being the pitching coach.
Then there are adjustments, or lack thereof. I see the hitters adjust easily to the Sox pitchers, but little to no adjustments the other way. Look at Cannon and Martin, both looked to be doing well late last season, but not this season ..no growth. What changed? I mean how many pitchers have to fail to take a next step before people finally take a look at the guy who is supposed to be instructing them?
As for ‘high yield returns’ (boy that comment is debatable for another time), its more likely because most of those pitchers already were high level talent (even Fedde who was pitching better overseas) before coming to the Sox. The other teams saw the talent and knew they could get more out of it, take a look at most of the pitchers that left, they typically were better once gone as well. Even if you want to chalk that up to Katz somehow making a couple of guys better, the role of the pitching coach is to make most, if not all, better, or should we also check the Bullpen performance or lack thereof?
Speaking of skenes it’s sad that he’s already in trade rumors with the pirates, you know it’s bad when even espn has that in the headlines
I’m not trying to alarm pirates fans but this kind of happened with Soto and the nationals about declining extensions and not being able to resign
It’s inevitable until mlb gives incentives to big name players to stay with small market teams that developed them doing something similar to what the NBA does. Capping potential earnings.
Teams who hold the nba players rights can offer larger contracts compared to those who don’t.
Would that be something the MLBPA opposing in return for say earlier free agency access. Possibly.
I do think letting teams who hold the players rights be the biggest bidder eliminates the need for as many pre arb and arb years since you can’t be out bid by Yankees dodgers etc etc.
Now will that prevent players from leaving? Course not. But I do think you’d see more players stay if you do
Team who holds the rights: 12 years 300 mill
Teams who don’t hold the rights: 10 years 225 mill
In return players can be eligible for free agency sooner.
Please note this idea is only for home grown players entering free agency for the first time.
Does not impact spending on second contracts or contracts agreed to prior to free agency.
Noted
Some form of restricted free agency, giving the current team the right to match or beat an offer, could help even the scales. Could create nice bidding wars for players too
@easy: Soooo, cap the amount a player can earn? Owners would love that. The NBA system is only in place because they have a salary cap and it’s a star-driven league. Plus the NBA system isn’t exactly working; see the Celtics, who are amazing but can’t afford their team.
But on the flip side, you’d never be able to implement this in baseball and using this as a bargaining chip to let players become FAs sooner would never happen. Seven years until FA is the owner’s biggest bargaining chip and no big market owner is going to agree to that just so the cheap, small market teams (whose existence they already subsidize) can *potentially* keep their players longer. They’d let the players become FAs earlier just to see guys like Nutting still trade their players away. I’m laughing at the idea that teams like the Pirates would utilize the ability to offer a player $300 million. Small market teams lose players because they don’t (or can’t) pay big money contracts. Bird rights wouldn’t eliminate that fact.
@rct
“Cap the amount players can earn”
It actually doesn’t cap the amount players can earn over the course of their career whatsoever. What it does do is hopefully keep stars around longer if they choose to accept a max contract offer. Hint: they don’t have to accept it and their 2nd trip through free agency doesn’t have a cap.
You also seem to ignore that in return for a first time through free agency team advantage players will hit free agency sooner at 26 27 28 instead of 30 or so.
Letting guys hit free agency at 26 27 28 of 30 would actually increase their overall earnings if they played their cards right
You forget the player doesn’t have to take the max offer of 12 years 300 mill. They could take a shorter deal 1 2 3 anywhere and reenter free agency uncapped long as the contract doesn’t violate the 1st trip through free agency clause.
Say super star an enters free agency at 26. He opts for a 4 years 160 mill deal. He renters free agency at 30 earning whatever. His overall earnings increase
Easy – I think following the NBA is the right direction here, but I would add some luxury tax savings as well. Not that a team like the pirates is up against the salary cap, but you gotta give the team something in return.
This would allow a team to plan for some competitive window better, they get their star player at a discount and can reinvest that in other guys.
The more I think about this, the more it seems like it’d benefit large market teams so maybe that’s why it’s not implemented. For example if the Yankees got Judge at a discount, Red Sox with Devers, etc
Maybe add in some qualifiers about not being in the luxury tax for x years before signing the extension? I dunno, but it’s an idea
I like the incentive idea
Maybe first threshold luxury tax breakers don’t pay any penalties if they go over the threshold resigning home grown players. Like if you resign your own you pay 0 penalties but if you sign someone else’s you pay the fine.
I think the nba allows teams to spend past their cap by resigning their own players. The raptors recently did this acquiring Brandon Ingram from the Pelicans and signing him to an extension that went past the cap but “resigning your own” lets them do that
I also think offering teams draft pick compensation for resigning their own home grown stars or if a resigned home grown star finishes say top 3 in mvp voting / cy young then the team gets an extra draft pick much like mlb already does with promoting top prospects.
What the MLB needs is shared TV deals like the NFL and then a Minnium and maximum spending cap on all Levels Minors and Major League
Whether its incentives to try to get them to pay, or having a tax cap and moving money to .. ahem..’ smaller market teams to ‘stay competitive’, Owners will always find the upside, and the upside is pocketing the money, then crying they are not making enough to be competitive. Its all blah blah blah to these guys (same with the players and their agents with their outrageous salary demands -then whining when all teams do not want to pay it calling it collusion- are going to kill the game).
I think the only options are contraction, hard salary cap, punishing owners for not spending or just moving teams to places that will have demand. OR like someone noted, start doing a system like for European football and have different leagues based on performance, maybe some shame in getting demoted to a lesser league will wake these billionaire babies up but I doubt it. They would probably still just take the money and run while their team is crap.
Really all of the ideas being implemented are put forth by billionaires (owners) or millionaires (the players) so its never going to be fixed.
Not happening.
They can have 3 more full seasons of Skenes and still get a full kings ransom for him. Why would they trade him. The type of package to get him doesn’t exist.
They could clear out an entire teams farm system, even more than what the nationals got for Soto, but for a pitcher
Pitchers are win-now players because they break down eventually when hitters stay on the field a lot more
Imagine if a team like the dodgers or padres offer the full ransom… 99% sure it doesn’t happen but that would make the pirates a playoff team again
Dodgers could certainly afford Skenes right now
Rushing
De Paula
Hope
Freeland
Are all top 75 prospects and dodgers can add guys like Miller Ryan Sheehan who’ve had mlb success and could use someone like Pitt getting them on track and other filler that could make the pirates competitive long term
You’re talking like 11 players for Skenes
Top of the rotation? I doubt it, but I think he’s got the chops to bean excellent multi-threat pitching option going forward.
At $100,000 plus league minimum, he’s already been a bargain. For the record, I voted settling in to league average starter which still makes it an excellent move.
Agreed. Also, while the White Sox have improved defensively since the Eloy Jimenez days, they aren’t exactly running out a team of elite defenders. I buy the upside of any White Sox pitcher who is succeeding in spite of the team behind him.
Impressive 1.1 WHIP
I hope he does really well, but we often see players have a good year or two and then disappear. Just look at Tanner Houck last year to this year. Guy was really great for 2/3 or so of last season. This year with very similar stuff, he can’t keep the ball in the park.
If he ends up as an average major league starter, I’d call that a steal in the Rule 5 draft.
Good for the White Sox if he sticks in their rotation. The Rule 5 draft is functioning as it was designed for.
Mike Vasil also lining up as a shrewd Rule 5 pick. Could there be a third?
I know the brewers regret leaving him unprotected with all of the starting pitching injuries they’ve had this year
I wonder how’d he have done in Milwaukee. It seems like at least part of his success is the new changeup, and I’m skeptical that Milwaukee would’ve had him pick that up.
Because the White Sox are known for being better at developing pitchers than the Brewers?
It’s an argument that can be made. Brewers definitely develop more pitchers. But Cease, Crochet, Sale and Rodon are better than any pitchers the Brewers have developed.
All high draft picks. There’s a little less development going on there. I wouldn’t credit Pittsburgh with developing Skenes either in that same context
Cease wasn’t a high draft pick. He was a product of the Cubs’ system tho.
Rally goose….youre right. Its still a valid point though. If you’re drafting top picks like the Sox are now theres not as much developing there. Hager out of Arkansas was pretty elite coming in. Show me what team does 5-15 in the draft and it tells me the story. Being able to develop good pen arms stuff like that
cease pitched a total of 75 innings in the cubs system – pretty disingenuous to give them credit for the development or call him a product of the cubs system
no one says the padres are responsible for developing trea turner.
Cease spent the majority of his development with the White Sox not the with the Cubs.
since 2010 the brewers have drafted 7 pitchers in the first round.
dylan covey, taylor jungmann, jed bradley, kodi medeiros, nathan kirby, ethan small and josh knoth.
that group has combined for a -1.6 WAR.
totally incorrect to say that teams have no involvement in developing high draft picks.
Cease signed for mid 2nd round money out of the draft. Wasn’t an out of nowhere development like a Corbin Burnes
There has to be some regret, but I believe its massively tempered. Brewers pitching arsenal with cost controlled starters is pretty deep.
I would guess that the regret was fairly immediate. The Brewers left Smith unprotected so they could draft Cardinals lefty Connor Thomas, who immediately got hurt. Then, as the Brewers’ rotation crumbled with more injuries (Thomas is a middle reliever), they overpaid to trade for Quinn Priester, a so-so starter for Boston. If Thomas amounts to something and Priester gets time to develop, the regret would diminish.
White Sox struck gold in the R5(S Smith and Mike Vasil)
Technically not Rule 5 but picking up Adrian Houser even for spot starts inspired bit of improv
That moves seems a desperate attempt to upgrade the bullpen, thank god B Wilson is back in the pen.
So that’s why Steve didn’t answer my question about Smith in the chat.
Also, what’s a Campfire Milkshake?
Uh, guess you’re not actually in Chicago
It’s a s’mores style shake. For years Rate Field has been known for really good food and drink options. Overpriced but still pretty damn good.
Mr. Reinsdorf please sell the team. Terrible brand of baseball from ownership to low minors. Ask the Southside.
Its all small sample size. Its cool. But coming to any conclusion needs a grain of salt. The underpinnings aren’t saying elite top end. But theres no way know the floor. Hes obviously overplaying what some talented baseball minds thought he would. And that happens. But there needs to be more built there….need to know if he can adjust when the numbers crash on him.
What’s so exciting about this team is that Sox fans can expect anybody who exceeds expectations like Smith to be traded a short time later for prospects that Getz and company will eventually ruin.
He got some talent for Crochet. Meidroth looks like a keeper.
montgomery is a stud
If Getz and company do everything right they should be able to make at least a Wild Card spot by the time Shane Smith hits FA. Might even be able to send him down next year to lock in control of his 2031 season if he hits a slump at some point.
he looks like he can have a career pitching in the majors, so that’s a win under rule 5 circumstances. i’m not too sure that he’s a front of the rotation arm though.