The Prospect Promotion Incentive was instituted as part of the latest collective bargaining agreement prior to the 2022 season. As the name implies, it’s designed to incentivize teams to more quickly promote their top prospects to the majors and avoid service time manipulation to gain a seventh year of team control over a given player. If an eligible player wins the Rookie of the Year award or is a finalist for either the MVP or Cy Young award before he reaches arbitration eligibility, then his team will be awarded a pick immediately after the first round of the following year’s draft.
Over the first three years of the incentive’s existence, four players have earned a PPI pick for their team: Julio Rodriguez, Gunnar Henderson, and Corbin Carroll all did so by winning their league’s Rookie of the Year award, while Bobby Witt Jr. did so last year by finishing second in AL MVP voting. That’s more than one player per year bringing in an extra pick for their team, and that collection of some of the league’s brightest young stars would have otherwise been prime candidates for service time manipulation; all were viewed as among the game’s best prospects, and all except Carroll had not yet signed an extension with their club although both Witt and Rodriguez would do so later on. The Mariners, in particular, had a history of manipulating service time with their best prospects including a controversy surrounding their handling of then-top prospect Jarred Kelenic.
In the cases of Rodriguez, Henderson, and Witt, the club in question evidently felt that the combination of a potential PPI pick and a full season of their top prospect in the majors was the better choice to pursue than the possibility of a seventh year of team control. The fact that players who finish in the top-two of Rookie of the Year voting are awarded a full year of service time even if they have not yet reached 172 days naturally surely factors into that calculation as well; the Pirates held star right-hander Paul Skenes back from their Opening Day roster and ended up with the worst of both worlds when he won the NL Rookie of the Year award last year. Not only did they not receive a PPI pick for Skenes’s win after he wasn’t included on their roster to begin the year, but his win cost them that extra year of team control gained by holding him back in until May anyway. 2015 NL Rookie of the Year Kris Bryant surely would’ve appreciated the opportunity to get that same bump in service time and move his free agency up to the 2020-21 offseason.
Not all instances of the PPI’s influence are quite this cut-and-dry, however. One recent trend regarding PPI-eligible prospects has been for clubs to put potential Rookie of the Year candidates on their Opening Day roster (or promote them early enough in the season so that they retain PPI eligibility) before giving them a short run in the majors and optioning them to the minor leagues if they don’t excel. The Cubs recently did exactly this with top infield prospect Matt Shaw, who was promoted back today after making the Opening Day roster, struggling in 18 games, and then spending a month at Triple-A. The Orioles have used this tactic when handling the promotions of Grayson Rodriguez and Jackson Holliday, as well.
Exactly how much those demotions had to do with service time and how much they had to do with performance can be debated, but it’s a method that allows a team to essentially hedge their bets by only extracting that extra year of team control once the PPI-eligible player has struggled enough in the majors to make a top-two finish in Rookie of the Year voting extremely unlikely. Aside from those cases, there are also some teams that seem completely undeterred from holding down their top prospects by the PPI. The aforementioned Pirates fall into this group even after the debacle with Skenes last year, as they’ve shown no inclination towards promoting top pitching prospect Bubba Chandler despite his dominance at Triple-A and the club’s struggles at the big league level.
How do MLBTR readers view the incentive? Has it been a success because it’s allowed players like Skenes to earn a full year of service while getting players like Henderson the opportunity to break camp with the big league team on Opening Day of their rookie seasons? Or is the fact that players like Chandler are still being held down in the minors while players like Shaw and Holliday have been sent back to Triple-A once they’re no longer good bets to bring in a PPI evidence enough that the system is ineffective? Have your say in the poll below:
It’s hurt players. Caused even more service time manipulation.
Could you elaborate?
Meow – I just wrote about this the other day! LOL!!
Campbell was the only top prospect signed by the Sox, the deal was mostly done in ST but the extension wasn’t agreed upon until shortly after the start of the regular season for a reason …. it allows the team to use Campbell for a potential PPI pick.
As a result, he was the only one of the Red Sox Big 3 prospects who made the team and has been on the team all season while the others haven’t even sniffed a promotion yet.
If the Sox keep Campbell on the team and he accumulates a year’s service time this season (172 days on the active roster), he gives the team a chance to land a high draft pick (right after the first round).
So in Campbell’s case, the Sox valued the draft pick more than keeping him in the minors without a contract extension to potentially gain an extra year of service time.
Meanwhile, keeping both Anthony and Mayer in the minors potentially benefits the Sox in TWO ways:
1) Gives Campbell a better chance of winning ROY
2) Gives the team a better chance of retaining an additional year of team control for both Mayer and Anthony because it’s harder to finish high in ROY voting when you miss a big portion of the season
So yeah, PPI benefits the owners but also encourages even MORE service time manipulation.
Ah, yeah, I see what you mean. I wonder if there’s any real, enforceable solution to this… Maybe something Rule 5ish?
Some teams are stupid so they will mess it up. But for a team who knows what they are doing this changes nothing. Hurts players. It’s not as big of a blunder as the draft lottery to prevent tanking. Oh we can’t possibly be bad enough to be worst team in baseball but hey we can be third worst and get same odds! 4th 5th ain’t to shabby of odds! No way can we bad enough to catch the White Sox or A’s. Can’t catch the Rockies. What they aren’t eligible? We don’t have to be worse than them? Awesome!
If a player is doing great and ready to be called up in say July August well you have to wait until August 30h September 1st now. Be foolish not to wait so you can still get them mlb experience so they can fall just short of losing prospect status and be a front runner for ROY the next year to get you that draft pick. Arizona with Corbin Carroll
Good and should start opening day to get that end of 1st round draft pick right? No. You think that draft pick is more valuable than an entire year of a good great stud player? Heck no. Why Skenes didn’t make opening day roster. Normally he would have been called up early mid April to secure that extra year. They waited until May because you gotta make sure he can’t win ROY. Well he pitched like no rookie or not many ever has and won it anyways. They didn’t see that coming and he was so dominating in AAA and so high profile they couldn’t hold off any longer. They learned their lesson though. Go look at Bubba Chandler stats and he still isn’t here.
It does help teams buy out players free agent years and at a fraction of the cost.
It’s good for top 100 prospects but not top 30 top 20 top 10. A extra years of a Witt Skenes etc is most likely going to be more valuable than the entire career of the 30 something draft pick.
Also a prospect can make opening day roster but not doing well enough to win ROY well just send them down to get more minor league seasoning and gain that extra year of control.
All these benefit the team. The team controls the players destiny. If it is good for the player then the team just did something stupid.
Of all the things the player union could fight for and they care about draft lottery to prevent tanking that doesn’t do anything to prevent tanking. Don’t want a international draft. And this prospect incentive bs.
FPG: “So yeah, PPI benefits the owners but also encourages even MORE service time manipulation.”
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You haven’t come anywhere near proving that service time manipulation is happening more across MLB due to prospect promotion incentives.
What is going on with the Red Sox is typical service time manipulation. Campbell signed an extension, so he was promoted sooner than Mayer and Anthony who haven’t signed extensions yet. This would likely happen with or without prospect promotion incentives to gain an extra year of control over players who haven’t signed an extension. This one example you cite supports that PPI has not reduced service time manipulation. It does not in any way support that service time manipulation is happening more than it ever has.
It doesn’t hurt as bad as Alex Cora’s managerial decisions
FIRE CORA
“The Mariners, in particular, had a history of manipulating service time with their best prospects including a controversy surrounding their handling of then-top prospect Jarred Kelenic.”
And as we’ve seen over the past few years, the Mariners talent evaluators were 100% correct in their assessment that Kelenic wasn’t ready for MLB pitching.
Can’t believe that comment has so many likes. Kelenic hasn’t developed as hoped but the Mariners 100% manipulated his service time and that was the point of that statement. The results are not the issue.
Exactly King of Cards. The guy with the 8th highest WAR of outfielders on his team should have been allowed to play from day 1 because he had a 4 next to his name in prospect rankings. Prospect Ranking > Stats and Production every time!
Again not the point. The Mariners executive said point blank they were manipulating his service time.
Manipulating the time or not… he was not ready for prime time. It showed then and definitely never has improved, if anything has gotten worse.
That’s true but thats not the point.
Mather was responsible for setting hot dog prices, not player development. Whole thing was blown out of proportion by mariners fans (who are largely clueless as to how baseball works….if you’re a Cardinals fan you fortunately wouldn’t have to understand).
No effect. Same numbers being called up to start the season as in seasons past.
Some players are not yet ready to be called up. Others start the season up and then it is quite apparent they are not ready and get sent down. Many players manage to stay up but really aren’t ready and they struggle. I don’t think it is service time issues rather everyone developes at a different pace.
Yes, same numbers, Web, but we are seeing more 2nd tier prospect promotions while top tier are being held back. Boston is the perfect example here… Campbell up, Mayer and Anthony (#1 and #2), Campbell was ranked 3rd ( I think)..
After Campbell agreed to his extension, there was no service time to be gained by keeping him in the minors. Mayer and Anthony have not signed extensions and keeping them in the minors gets the Red Sox and extra year of team control before they hit free agency. That type of service time manipulation has been going on across MLB for years.
Correct me if my memory is failing me, but all 3 of Shaw, G-Rod and Holliday had poor showings upon their initial callup. It didn’t appear to be manipulation and was, at least in my eyes, a legit effort to help the players improve. Lots of young kids get overwhelmed by their first taste of the majors and need a brief reset in the minors.
Also, the Pirates need to embrace George Costanza’s opposite theory. Whatever they think is the thing to do, do the opposite, because they seem to do pretty much everything wrong.
So what the Reds were 10 years ago?
Cant speak to Grayson Rodriguez, but Shaw and Holliday were aggressively promoted, at a young age, without that many games at AAA.
It’s pretty funny how many prospects who are being “service time manipulated” come up and suck because they aren’t ready.
Shaw was promoted after a big Spring Training performance where he looked like the best 3B in the org. And that was after a winter when the Cubs intentionally cleared room for him. Then he played poorly. I don’t think anyone gamed the system here.
And people were clamoring for Holliday’s promotion nearly a year before it actually happened. Everyone wants to see a teenager reach the bigs—it portends greatness.
The Cubs have manipulated the service time of a 3b in the past but it wasnt Shaw.
It worked out fine for KB. Not only did he get big Super Two arb salaries, but it also pushed his free agent platform year away from his mediocre pandemic season.
His free agency was delayed a year. It was clear service time manipulation.
My biggest gripe with the current system is that it’s tied to the awards voting, which feels a bit flaky. But I don’t know what other objective measure could be used.
So far in 3 seasons with the PPI pick, there’s been little doubt about whether the player earned the placement in the awards they needed to earn their teams a draft pick.
2022 between J-Rod and Rutschman is probably the closest, although J-Rod should win for playing the whole season. In 2023, both Carroll and Henderson coasted to their ROY win. And Bobby Witt Jr. is the second-best player in the AL behind Aaron Judge.
The flaky thing to me is that the player needs to be on a top 100 player list for the team to win an extra draft pick which gives the media some power in the process as they establish the top 100 lists.
Oh yeah, definitely that also.
I wonder when we will see a team send a player down during their sophomore year who entered the season with 1.000 years of service time after they go through a marginal slump.
Probably pretty soon, depending on your definition of marginal.
Teams have many ways to manipulate service time and they can’t all be eliminated.
The easiest way would be to lower the requirement for a service year to something like 75 days. At that point, the use case for manipulation would be low. The period for delaying a promotion would be right around the trade deadline. Contenders would want their best guys up, and only rebuilders would wait a little longer.
I still think you manipulate service time anyway. The odds of the player winning ROY or being a MVP/Cy Young finalist in his pre-arb years are not good. But we already know A. J. Preller doesn’t do that (Tatis, Cronenworth, Merrill, etc).
Cronenworth was not a top prospect. Merrill was under current rules. Tatis I will give you that one.
So far I’d say it’s worked as intended. We can cite Bobby Witt Jr., Jackson Merrill, and Julio Rodriguez as cases where you can claim it helped prevent possible service time manipulation (although all 3 players signed mega extensions, so it’s a bit of a moot point in hindsight).
Carroll and Henderson were on track to be starters in their respective rookie seasons, so it had no impact on them. Chourio could have been a PPI-eligible prospect had he signed his extension a week later, which is probably why the Red Sox waited to extend Kristian Campbell until after his debut.
Skenes might be the only case of service time manipulation for a top prospect, but even that is a difficult case to make. He was just drafted months before, so those 10 starts in Triple-A might have been important in making sure he was ready.
It didn’t prevent anything on Merrill. Preller already doesn’t do the service time thing.
Adley was also an attempt at service time manipulation.
Meh
Marginal increase is better than no increase.
I think “service time manipulation” is very overblown. Fans, media, fantasy players, etc all want the next new shiny prospect, and its very easy to gripe about the front office “holding them down”. Even if you’re a fan who doesn’t even watch the minors.
I’m a Giants fan and there’s a segment of the fanbase online who is furious we haven’t called up Bryce Eldridge to replace LaMonte Wade. Eldridge is 20.
Jackson Holliday was 20 when people started accusing the Orioles of “manipulation”. Then they called him up… at age 20!… and guess what. He wasn’t ready.
Every situation is different. Kris Bryant is a good example of it happening. I think it’s happened less recently.
rhand – It depends on each individual situation. Sure some fans are irrationally impatient. In Holliday’s case, he had only 155 minor league games under his belt when he was promoted …. including only 28 games at AAA.
Now compare that to Roman Anthony who already has 286 minor league games including 76 games at AAA …. it’s absolutely absurd he hasn’t been promoted yet! The guy has a .965 OPS in AAA, he’s got nothing to gain by staying down there.
And if Anthony had agreed to an extension like Campbell did, Anthony would have been playing the entire season in the majors like Campbell has.
I voted no, but a soft no. I don’t think it’s been as dramatic as hoped.
Re: Matt Shaw – there’s no way the Cubs were starting Jon Berti at third for a month and giving Nicky Lopez any ABs whatsover to manipulate Shaw’s service time. He just stunk his first time around, like many prospects do, so they sent him down to try to get him his mojo back and like with many prospects, it might have done the trick. We’ll see.
It is having some effect. Prior to the rule, top prospects almost always got the Kris Bryant Treatment. Tatis is the main recent example where that did NOT happen. But now many prospects make Opening Day rosters.
I was under the impression that the Astros promoted Cam Smith early partly because of this incentive.
IMO the Astros started Cam right away in the majors to appease the fans after trading Tucker since Cam was the centerpiece of the trade
” The Mariners, in particular, had a history of manipulating service time with their best prospects including a controversy surrounding their handling of then-top prospect Jarred Kelenic.”
That is neither true nor fair. Kelenic wasn’t ready and time proved that to be true. He only had 92 PAs in AA when fans started calling for his promotion and suggested he was being ‘punished’ for refusing to sign an extension after he whined through his agent publicly.
Gilbert had just 9 starts at AA; Raleigh had 51 games at AAA before getting called up. Raleigh and Julio are still the only two hitting prospects that have proven to be developmental successes.
Taylor Trammell never dominated the minors and struggled upon his call-up after 320+ PAs.
I have my issues with ownership and the front office, but I would argue they have mostly promoted players early, especially pitchers .
Some front office guy admitted they were holding him back for service time reasons. If I remember that I don’t know why you have forgotten. I would have to look up the details but that happened.
Kevin Mathers suggested he would have found himself on the roster if he had signed an extension.
But Mathers had nothing to do with player personnel nor roster decisions, and the fact remains that he had just 92 PAs in AA
How does that suggest service time manipulation?
It doesn’t.
Even Julio had over 200 PAs in AA before making the club out of spring and he was/is far more talented.
I’ll add a little more….
there was some belief that without a minor-league season in 2020, that some players (prospects) may have benefited from MLB experience, rather than what was basically just practice.
Seattle tried that with Evan White following a premature extension.
It didn’t work.
Well why did that guy say that then?
He was bragging…Many fans were enamored with Jarred and wanted to believe he was ready. “Not our fault!”.
And I’m not suggesting they wouldn’t have promoted Kelenic prematurely. But you’re missing the point.
You can’t call it service time manipulation when a player barely got his feet wet in AA.
The point is the executive said something publicly that most teams think privately. He screwed up and got caught.
He didn’t resign because of what he said about Kelenic. It was the racist comments that did him in. There was an incident with a female employee before that which certainly didn’t help his cause.
And keep in mind, he has no baseball background. He’s a businessman. He had nothing to do with the on-field decisions.
But believe whatever you want. I’m still waiting for someone to offer proof that Kelenic was actually ready for MLB.
In fact, I’m still waiting for someone to offer proof that he’s ready for MLB right now.
@Stevil I agree Kelenic wasn’t ready but Kevin Mather straight up admitted that service time was a factor in them waiting to call him up. They can both be true.
Nutting would much rather save two weeks of (rookie level) pay than get a first round pick.
So, still a win in his books.
The main problem with the PPI is that it can’t be managed in any reliable sort of way. If it feels random, teams won’t incorporate it into their decision making. Most of the very best prospects don’t even trigger the condition for the rewards, regardless of when they were promoted. And a bunch of legit prospects aren’t even included because some public prospect analysts didn’t rank them highly enough.
And that’s not me disparaging BA et al. They do great work, but they’re outsiders. They’re at a window with a good view of the inside, but they can’t see everything.
The rule as written incentivizes teams to keep players down longer so that, once promoted, they can win awards in their first 2 or 3 seasons. It penalizes teams that allow a rookie to play through their growth phase.
Maybe, but if you keep a player in the minors too long, they may fall of the top 100 player lists and be ineligible to get their team and extra draft pick if they win an award.
While I get the “incentive” that the current collective bargaining agreement tried to correct the “service time manipulation” issue, I think a better way to address it is to maybe award teams that let prospects reach super 2 status. It avoids random things like ROL,MVP or CY voting and rewards teams for truly rewarding players with service time. One less year of service pre arbitation = one supplemental draft pick. Everybody wins. Just my thoughts.
There is one thing I would change about PPI and that is if a player like Jackson Chourio or Colt Keith sign a deal before taking a swing in the majors that they are ineligible for PPI.
The other thing I would also give out a draft pick if a player in their pre arb years wins a silver slugger or Gold Glove.
Your first 1 is already the case.
Only the pirates can screw a situation so bad to not get an extra pick AND lose skenes to the dodgers 1 year sooner
Mariners: you’re not ready
Kelenic’s career: has proven them right