We’re now a little over a quarter of the way through the 2025 regular season. With Memorial Day fast approaching, it’s hard for struggling teams to continue arguing that it’s still early. That isn’t to say playoff positions are set in stone, of course; on this day last year, the Cubs were firmly in playoff position while the Mets club that eventually made it all the way to the NLCS was still three games under .500. If the season ended today, the Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, Padres, Phillies, and Giants would be your playoff teams in the National League this year.
With four-and-a-half months left in the baseball calendar, which team currently outside of that group has the best chance of breaking their way into the mix? Yesterday’s poll covering the American League was won by the Red Sox (25%), who narrowly bested both the Rangers (20%) and Astros (20%) in a tight contest. Here’s a look at a few of NL’s the options, listed in order of record entering play today:
St. Louis Cardinals (24-20)
The Cardinals essentially left their roster untouched outside of the departure of veterans like Paul Goldschmidt and Kyle Gibson over the offseason. Right-hander Phil Maton was the club’s only major league free agent signing. Running back last year’s 83-win team without its former MVP first baseman didn’t do much for the Cardinals’ projections, but a recent nine-game win streak has allowed St. Louis to change the narrative. Willson Contreras has started hitting again, Masyn Winn could be breaking out, and Matthew Liberatore is making the decision to move him to the rotation look wise. If the Cards can keep playing anything close to this well, thoughts of selling Ryan Helsley at the deadline are likely to vanish before the calendar flips to July.
Arizona Diamondbacks (23-21)
The fourth team in a crowded four-team NL West race, the Diamondbacks have held their own this year despite injuries plaguing superstar Ketel Marte and the loss of A.J. Puk from an already-leaky bullpen. Corbin Burnes has delivered a sub-3.00 ERA despite shaky peripherals, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt look like solid mid-rotation pieces, and Corbin Carroll is a superstar. If Zac Gallen (4.59 ERA) and Eduardo Rodriguez (7.07 ERA) can even pitch close to their respective 3.91 FIP and 4.30 FIP marks, Arizona should be a real threat to reach the postseason.
Atlanta Braves (22-22)
That Atlanta finds itself even in this conversation after going 0-7 to start the year is an impressive feat. The tandem of Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin behind the plate has been a sensational one, and AJ Smith-Shawver is turning into a potential front-of-the-rotation surprise alongside Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach. With a .500 record despite getting just one start from Spencer Strider and zero plate appearances from Ronald Acuna Jr. so far, it’s not hard to imagine the Braves fighting their way into the playoffs by season’s end. For that to happen, players like Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies will need to start hitting while closer Raisel Iglesias (5.71 ERA) will need to turn things around or be replaced by someone who can more consistently nail down save opportunities.
Milwaukee Brewers (21-23)
Disappointing performances from Christian Yelich, William Contreras, and Jackson Chourio to this point in the year have limited the Brewers’ performance so far. (Contreras is playing through a broken middle finger, which can’t help.) Thankfully, players like Rhys Hoskins and Brice Turang have both looked excellent so far and the Brewers have proved they can win mostly on the strength of their pitching before. Freddy Peralta and rookie Chad Patrick have been excellent, Brandon Woodruff is nearing a return, and top prospect Jacob Misiorowski is throwing 103 mph with dazzling results at Triple-A. If the star hitters can perform at a higher level going forward, perhaps that would be enough to get them back into the mix.
Cincinnati Reds (21-24)
It’s been a frustrating season for the Reds so far. The rotation, led by Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott, has been strong, but those contributions have been dampened by a frustrating lineup that has failed to get consistent quality production out of anyone but Jose Trevino and Gavin Lux. Even Elly De La Cruz has been a roughly average hitter overall, while key pieces like Matt McLain and Spencer Steer have been bitterly disappointing. Fortunately, Noelvi Marte seems to be coming around after a disastrous 2024. There’s still enough time that if the club’s young lineup can go on a heater, it’s easy to imagine a strong pitching staff carrying them back into the postseason conversation.
The Rest Of The Field
The five teams mentioned above are all within five games of a Wild Card spot. The rest of the league would have a lot more work to do. The Nationals have an exciting young core featuring James Wood, CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore but lack the pitching depth to capitalize on it. The Marlins have gotten a big performance from Kyle Stowers, but a disappointing pitching staff that includes an 8.10 ERA from Sandy Alcantara is keeping the playoffs out of reach. The inverse is true in Pittsburgh, where Paul Skenes leads an impressive rotation but Bryan Reynolds has a wRC+ of just 55. Meanwhile, the Rockies are the team that can be most decisively counted out of the playoff picture in a season where they’re poised to contend for the modern loss record.
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Which of the teams outside of the NL playoff picture entering play today do MLBTR readers think stands the best chance of making it into the postseason? Have your say in the poll below:
I think Brewers get in. Dodgers, Padres, Brewers, Cubs, Mets, Phillies. STL & SF just miss out.
It’s obvious —— if John Mozeliak keeps his has in his pocket, as he did during the Cardinals off-season, the Cardinals will be much better off at the end of the season!!!
Possibly even playoff contenders.
In recent years past — Mozeliak has traded off pitchers who have become Cy Young recipients and prospective Cy Young winners. He’s traded off players at the trading deadlines who immediately became playoff MVP’s for other teams instead of the Cardinals, ——- while never receiving any better talented players back in return, —- even on a prospective basis.
Nevertheless, to leave the Giants off that initial list is just narrow minded, despite they’re being in the NL West.
It’s probably gonna be 4-5 teams for the last wild card spot.
Brewers are playing horrid baseball and still hanging in there just a few games back from the overachieving Cards and the Cubs that have mounting starting pitching injuries. With getting their own pitching healthy and graduation of studs in the minors and then the offense improving back to norms, I see the Crew eventually taking the Central.
Last year’s National League probably had at least four other teams besides the Dodgers, that could’ve beaten the Yankees in last years World Series.
The Yankees wouldn’t have even made the playoffs in the National league.
The Rockies are only a 30 game win streak away from being the team to beat in the NL west.
Rocktober is practically a sure thing at this point.
Most would say they’re already the team to beat
I might be in the minority but I like the Reds’ roster. They seem highly underrated. May not be enough for postseason play but they have a lot of nice players and I think they will be better than expected at season’s end. I picked them for ha has.
NL teams for which the season is over: WAS, MIA, PIT, COL, and CIN.
NL teams for which they need a lot of help and good luck: ATL and MIL.
Coin-flip: STL, ARI
I think the Reds are better than that but we will see
If Reds get healthy they could be a factor. Currently 11 players on injured list
Very good point. I’m just going off the known roster.
Hold up. So you really think the Reds aren’t any better than the other teams you have listed not making it??
Braves are going to win the division by 5 games. Team is getting hot and healthy. Mets rotation is overperforming and will fall apart in the 2nd half. Philly has no bullpen.
I’m going with the Brew Crew. Yes, I think Atlanta has a ton of talent but Milwaukee has a weaker division in which to pick up some wins.
Toss up between Atlanta or Arizona since they are really good teams stuck in hard divisions
If the Mets don’t blow it
Braves are only 5 games back and are about to get Strider and Acuna back. They’ve been playing at a 98 win pace since the 0-7 start. Braves win the division by 5 games
It’s completely conceivable, if not likely, that both wildcard teams will be from the NLE: two of the Mets, Braves, and Phillies. The Padres or D’backs could sneak in. The Giants, I believe, are going to fade. But the smart money is on a Rockies-White Sox World Series. You heard it here first, unless you heard it somewhere else first.
Since May 12, 2024 (their last 162 games) the Padres have the highest winning percentage in baseball, going 99-63, a .611 winning percentage. The Dodgers are second with a .605 winning percentage.
Saying the Padres could sneak in is quite the leap.
I am not basing my predictions on anything that happened last year. Because I’m sure you know, last year doesn’t count towards this year. Also, as I am sure you know, a team that doesn’t win the division has to compete with teams in all of the other divisions for a wildcard berth. The three, good teams in the NLE complicate this path to the postseason.
Braves. they have an MVP and an all star pitcher coming back very soon. playing 100 win pace since the 1-8 start.
I will never count out the Braves.
D-Backs, 3rd in the West.
Don’t think so. If Eduardo comes back healthy I’d say:
LA
AR
SF
SD
(look waaay down)
Colorado
I am going to go way out on a limb and say Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers win their divisions. Wild cards are Braves, Padres, and Diamondbacks. Cubs and Mets do what the Cubs and Mets always do.
The Braves are over 500 finally and did this without Acuna and Strider. Braves are good enough to take the division, but the way they are playing right now, they will be a playoff team at least.