Latest On Luis Severino

Luis Severino is schedule to take the mound for the mound for the Athletics later today, and he certainly seems to be relieved that this start will come on the road. Severino recently went public with criticism of the team’s stadium situation. After departing the Coliseum in Oakland at the end of the 2024 campaign, the A’s have temporarily moved into Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento, the home of the Triple-A Sacramento River Cats. Severino compared the feeling of pitching at his current home ballpark to a Spring Training game, as noted by Brendan Kuty of The Athletic.

“Because we play in a big-league stadium on the road,” Severino said when asked why his road splits are significantly stronger than his home numbers, as relayed by Kuty. “We don’t have that at home right now. It’s not the same. It’s not the same atmosphere. We don’t have a lot of fans. Our clubhouse is in left field. So, when we play day games, we have to just be in the sun. There’s no air conditioning there, too. It’s really tough.”

If those home/road splits are anything to go by, it’s hard to disagree with Severino that he’s been impacted by the new stadium situation. The right-hander has looked solid in seven road starts with a sparkling 2.27 ERA, but that same figure balloons up to 6.79 when looking at his ten starts in Sacramento. Aside from the criticism Severino mentioned in the above quote, it’s undeniably that Sutter Health Park heavily favors hitters. According to Statcast, it has an overall park factor of 112 this year, making it the most offense-friendly ballpark in the majors ahead of Coors Field (111) and Camden Yards (110). The environment is only likely to improve further for hitters as the summer continues, with temperatures sure to continue rising in a park that has little protection from the sun.

Severino’s comments seem to have been noticed by Athletics brass, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Nightengale writes that the A’s “can’t wait” to trade Severino after his recent comments about the ballpark in Sacramento. For a 34-51 ballclub like the A’s, a seemingly unhappy veteran starting pitcher who might welcome a change of scenery would seem like a no-brainer as a trade candidate on the surface. That’s especially true given the fact that many clubs, even including some buried in the standing like the Orioles, are still holding out hope that they might be able to fight their way back into the postseason picture before the season comes to a close. That lack of surefire sellers is sure to limit the supply of quality arms on the market, and it’s easy to see why the A’s might want to take advantage.

With all of that being said, there’s some very clear obstacles standing in the way of a Severino trade actually coming together. Severino’s numbers are undeniably lackluster, with a 4.83 ERA and 4.00 FIP to this point in the season, While his ERA is much better on the road, his already weak 15.5% strikeout rate is actually even lower (12.9%) on the road this year. He’s also posting the lowest ground ball rate of his career, and his 7.7% home run to fly ball ratio is far below his career norms in spite of calling the bandbox that is Sutter Health Park home. Severino’s 4.73 SIERA is the seventh-worst figure among qualified starters this year, and rival clubs would be justified in proceeding cautiously regarding the righty.

Poor performance by itself isn’t enough to make a player an unrealistic trade candidate. Plenty of clubs are willing to buy low on players they think they could help turn things around, happy to pay a lower acquisition cost and bank on their own internal development to make up the difference in quality. That figures to be a much tougher sell with Severino specifically due to the nature of his contract. He’s set to make around $10MM for the remainder of the 2025 campaign, which is already a hefty price to pay for clubs with limited payroll space available. He’s then due $25MM guaranteed for 2026 and holds a $22MM player option for the 2027 season on top of that.

Perhaps taking on upwards of $57MM in salary over the next two-and-a-half seasons could be worth it for a team with money to spend and confidence that they can turn Severino into a reliable, playoff-caliber starter, but if Severino is healthy and successful in 2026 he’d be likely to simply opt out of the 2027 campaign entirely for another bite at the apple in free agency. It seems very unlikely that there will be a significant number of teams interested in taking on Severino for more than a marginal return without the A’s eating substantial money on the deal, and it’s unlikely that a team with competitive aspirations in the medium term and a $78MM payroll in 2025 (per RosterResource) would have much interest in taking on dead money.

Even if there was a deal to be made, it’s an open question whether or not it would actually behoove the A’s to make it. After all, A’s brass acknowledged outright that convincing free agents to join a club that had averaged more than 102 losses over the previous three years and would play the next few seasons in a minor league ballpark was a tough sell. That’s likely a big part of the reason they made such a lavish offer to Severino in the first place. It’s hard to imagine the A’s being able to replace him via free agency this winter following what looks to be another unsuccessful season where high-profile players like Severino, Zack Wheeler, and Carlos Correa have criticized the ballpark conditions and pitchers have seen first-hand what a difficult environment the park creates for pitchers. All of that makes a Severino deal seem unlikely even before considering the fact that the A’s would reportedly risk a grievance if their luxury tax payroll for 2025 were to fall below $105MM, a threshold which they would fail to clear if they traded Severino without retaining substantial salary.