I'm pinch-hitting for Tim Dierkes on this week's edition of the MLBTR Mailbag. We'll tackle questions on Jarren Duran and the Padres, Alex Bregman's opt-out status, Donovan Solano and Tyler Locklear in Seattle, Masataka Yoshida, Brendan Donovan, some Giants rotation standouts, the Angels' bullpen and more!
Ross asks:
With the report that the Padres are interested in Jarren Duran, what would be a reasonable return for the Red Sox?
As we discussed on the podcast this week, the Padres/Duran connection feels like it's drawing a bit more attention than it should, at least based on the chances of him actually changing hands (even more so if we specifically zero in on the Padres). That's not to say there's no chance of a Duran deal, but the Padres have a clear need in the outfield and an ultra-aggressive baseball operations leader in A.J. Preller. It'd frankly be more surprising if they hadn't inquired on Duran.
That said, it's worth diving into a bit. Duran had a borderline MVP-caliber season last year, hitting .285/.342/.492 with plus defense and elite baserunning. Baseball-Reference valued him at 8.7 wins above replacement. We've seen players named MVP with lesser WAR totals than that, but Duran was an afterthought in the 2024 race thanks to outrageously good seasons from Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr. and (to a slightly lesser extent) Juan Soto.
The Padres' farm system was once a powerhouse but is now top-heavy and lacking depth. Shortstop Leo De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas are among MLB's 25 best prospects, but there's not a lot of other talent in the hopper. It makes a deal difficult to envision -- for multiple reasons.
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Salas as the headliner. Duran and Crawford to the Padres for Salas, Peralta, Campusano (Who’s been getting reps at first), Rodriguez, Fountain, and Pena.
Sox get 4 of the Padres top 30, plus bullpen help for now, plus their possible future 3rd baseman in Fountain (who won’t be ready for 3 yrs or so), and Campy (who MAY be able to plug their 1B hole temporarily).
Why would the Red Sox want Salas or Fountain or anyone else who isn’t ready to play in 2026?
King- Rodriguez, Peralta, and Campusano help them this year. They get one of the top catching prospects in baseball, and Pena could be ready as soon as next year, and if Bregman were to opt in, he’ll be about ready to move off 3rd when Fountain is ready.
King. Of. Cards
Why would the Red Sox want … anyone else who isn’t ready to play in 2026?
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That is extremely easy and straightfoward.
1-They are barely a contender right now. The have a Ps W/L of 33-31 which is just on the fringes of contention. Turning down a good trade for maybe a 35% chance of making the playoffs would be crazy.
2-They are unlikely to be currently worse off after the trade. Anthony can’t replace Duran yet, but even a good BP arm would be enough to even that out.
Campy has not really been getting reps at 1st like you said. 2 games per bref. I mean, hey if it makes him more attractive to you, I will go with that narrative however. 🙂
Scapegoat: Go read Padres.com today. Took the words right from there re: Campusano..but hey..you probably know more than the Padres beat writer.
Hey by all means…take him off our hands.But if you look at all the time he has spent there actually playing in a major league game this year…there isn’t any time doing that in 2025. and 2 games over his 4 year major league career. And barely any in the minors.
baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cam…
That post you sent, has done exactly what it was designed to do. Create worth in a trading team/fan’s perception of him.
I really wish he had hit for us like we thought. Or played Catcher well too. Maybe a change of scenery would unlock the mystery that is Campy.
RonDarlingShouldntBeInTheHallOfFame
Scapegoat: Go read Padres.com today.
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I’ll stick with Baseball Reference. He has 95 career innings at 1st in the minors (only 18 this year), and 3 career innings in the pros.
In addition, he doesn’t hit well enough to play 1st, and he probably isn’t as good as Wong or Narvaez.
Here ya go Scapegoat.
instagram.com/reel/DKLZTFYPG_G/?hl=en
The third basement of the future is playing third right now. Arias, will be the shortstop in the future. Watching him now, in the minors reminds me of the mookie betts watch
Bregman can opt out this offseason, and if he doesn’t? In 3-4 years, he’ll be 34-35, which is often about the time 3rd basemen tend to move across the diamond to 1b.
Ron – I also said Salas, but first base will not be a need after this season. Casas should return next spring, and Devers will play first base if Casas doesn’t.
Why throw in Crawford too? That makes it an overpay.
Fever-Saw that. Crawford would be thrown in under this scenario mainly because the Pads are gonna need to replace Cease and King most likely, and the Sox have most of their rotation set for next season, with several additional starters that there won’t be room for.
As for 1st base? I agree..but Campy could fill their 1b need immediately assuming he’s at least ok there (He was a 1b through high school before being converted to catcher.)
Ron – Who do you picture in the Sox rotation next year outside of Crochet and Bello?
Dobbins and Fitts are unproven.
Houck is a mess right now
Gio and Buehler are free agents
Sandoval is a huge question mark
They really aren’t in a position to give up 3+ years of team control with Crawford.
It’s truly amazing that the Duran to Padres rumor is still alive and daily. This isn’t happening. The Padres can only offer prospects (mid- to low prospects) and RSox aren’t giving up on the season. If they were to trade Duran now (and why would they do that, he’s great, he’s under control?) they would want to acquire MLB talent that can help them win this year and next. Any team would want Duran, but there are better trade partners than the Padres. This is where rumors are created simply as clickbait and live on in mailbags
Brew – The Red Sox are certainly leaning toward giving up based on recent comments from Cora, Breslow etc.
Six losses back of the WC despite the 3rd-easiest schedule in MLB, they could be 12 losses back by the end of the month.
If winning was a priority, KC would have been sent down and Anthony would have been called up.
Fever, yeah that may happen if they can’t put a winning 4 weeks together. And if it does they may very well trade Duran or some others to fill some other holes in an attempt to reload for 2026. I don’t see them tearing it apart and rebuilding, do you?
But the Padres don’t have any assets to trade that would help the RSox compete next year or in 2027 and that’s where I see this rumor lacking any legs. The only way I see that happening requires a 3rd team involved who would be interested in SD’s mid- and lower level prospects, while sending MLB ready talent to Boston.
Brew – Definitely don’t see them tearing it apart, most of the team is comprised of players that need experience.
I don’t think they will trade Duran, at least not at the deadline. No need to rush it, he has 3 years left of team control and they will need him during those three years.
Agree with you on the trade having no legs. Personally I think they make room for Anthony by moving Rafaela to infield or utility.
Cardinals are not trading Donovan.
It would take a huge haul to convince the Cardinals to trade Donovan and that’s only if they fall out of contention.
Unfortunately—- John Mozeliak is still
In charge of the Cardinals front office until the end of the season.
Mozeliak will do Nothing positive to improve the franchise before he leaves!!
Therefore —— Even With Brendon Donovan having a career year —— Mozeliak sees Donovan as a top trade candidate. Not as a Quality player who needs to be retained by the Cardinals. Why?? It requires top dollar money to retain top Quality players!!!
Only under Chaim Bloom will contracts ever be offered to the players such as Donovan, Nootbar, or Winn while John Mozeliak is employed.
Bloom can’t come into total power of the Front Office of the Cardinals soon enough!!!!
Michael king or Dylan cease for jarren Duran 1 for 1?
Three and half years of control for four months? Umh, no.
Such a trade would amount to 1. Padres punting on this season (that wouldn’t go well for a team with WS aspirations) and 2. RSox punting on this season and next 3.
“RSox punting on this season”
Actually, the Red Sox would improve for this season. The drop off from Duran to Roman Anthony would be minimal, since Duran’s defensive skills are wasted in left and Red Sox need more power. While their Starting Pitching would greatly improve when you add Dylan Cease and drop off the worst starter (Gioloti or Dobbins).
The problem lies in value. A half season of Cease (Free Agent at the end of the year) is not nearly equal to three and half seasons of Duran. Even if you value pitching higher, which I do.
Salvi, yeah I get that. I value pitching of course but was considering 2026 and beyond for Boston. Would the improvement this year be enough to push them into the playoffs, I doubt it. They can get much more for Duran than a rental SP.
And as much as the Padres would view a Cease for Duran trade as a big value win, given Duran’s 3 years of control, they are also competing for a WS this year and trading Cease (or King) would handicap those goals and piss off the fanbase. The Pads have also stated over and again that Cease and King are not trade options as long as they’re winning (and they’re 10 games over 500 now).
If the Padres go 15-30 next 7 weeks and Boston goes 30-15, then Cease will become available to them. But not now.
Good call. I agree with everything u just said.
if I were the Red Sox, any talk for Duran must include trading Trevor Story and his albatross contract in the process. I don’t know if the Padres have any expiring/dead weight contracts they would like to unload as part of a deal, but the Sox need to look forward- and getting rid of Story would help.
Xander Bogaerts? Jake Cronenworth?
Manny M
Adding Story to any deal with Duran would greatly lower the return. Duran should return a big piece, not a little one.
Red Sox do not have a bad salary cap situation, and already have plenty of small pieces. Hold onto Story as an expensive utility or DFA him. Sucking the value out of a Duran trade makes no sense.
We have no current replacement for Story.
And the bizarre obsession, impervious to all informed analysis and actual observation of how teams construct trades, with using big trade chips to dump salary continues unabated in mlbtr comments!
Taking back an underwater contract defeats the purpose or value of unloading story and as other sensible folks have already said diminishes the return from the other side. The Sox have the money to simply waive and release story if they want him off the roster badly enough. Or to pay down his contract significantly in an actually plausible salary.dump trade.
Duran, a former infielder to 1b. Besides. Narvaez looks like the catcher of the future. If it is going to get done, than king must be included.
alan – Sorry but moving the 2nd-best defensive outfielder in MLB (last year) to the easiest position in baseball is quite a waste of talent.
“Narvaez looks like the catcher of the future.”
Whoa, the guy only has 192 plate appearances at the MLB level. During 8 seasons, his career OPS in the minors is only .748, while its .793 in the big leagues. Meaning regression should be expected.
Red Sox should look to pry Ethan Salas away for Duran and another piece (Jhostynxon Garcia maybe). If that cant be worked out, they should move on to other teams with a better match to their needs and talents (aka starting pitching).
He was brutal in the field the year before last and has been bad this year too. Most likely last year’s defense was an outlier
Who Duran? Does slightly below average now mean “brutal”. Duran was only -1 defensive run value in 2023 and 2025.
Career OOA: +6
Career RV: +5
Move him out of ugly LF in Fenway and back to CF where his speed plays a major role and watch that number go right back up.
Alex Bregman to the Yankees.
The Angels need a White Sox/Rockies type rebuild and can’t call up a prospect for the next four years so they actually have a chance to develop. I’d be shocked if any of their pitching prospects develop into passable starters when they are all fast tracked to the bullpen based off immediate needs.
To be fair, they struggled to develop pitchers regardless of how soon they’re called up
The only reason those teams rebuild like that is because their ownership won’t spend the money they need yo when it’s time to supplement. Angels can get away with a partial rebuild. They haven’t even done that since the 90s. Even then with all those great young players, they kept trying to win because even back they spent money when they needed to. At this point, the only thing keeping the Angels out of a playoff spot is more maturity from young hitters (not chasing, getting on base) and the mess in the back end of their bullpen. Too many young bats and too many young reliever arms. But I think they should just keep doing what they’re doing, get Christian Moore ready, get more prospects for short term veterans at the deadline, and just add on wherever. They’ll probably be ready next year if not 2027.
And capitalize on their first round pick.
The Red Sox are a few tweaks away. Trading Duran is not a tweak. Getting a real first baseman and not giving up the future. Working out who the starting six starters are and getting them healthy. Establishing a permanent position for as many players as possible and shoring up the defense. Promoting Cora to the front office and putting Tek in the manager’s chair. Then, vroom.
hayzee – The Red Sox need more than a few twerks.
They are all set at first base, Casas or Devers.
They need to establish the rest of the infield after Bregman leaves.
Mayer at 3B, Rafaela at SS, KC at 2B?
I agree with the other stuff you said.
Slow baseball news day?
Padres are not trading Salas and Not Trading De Vries.
Both are “untouchable”.
Duran appears to have taken a step back on both offense and defense.
If the Red Sox are looking to unload Duran to free up ABs for some of their young players @ AAA,
then they may be interested in some of the Padres pitching in the lower minors.
Otherwise, nothing to see here.
Tbh the persistent narrative for months now that the red Sox need to move duran now doesn’t really add up for me. Roman anthony is a great prospect but it’s not just a given that he would seamlessly replace or exceed duran’s value and production. Positional logjams are often just an injury or two away from working themselves out. The Sox can probably find an interim or rental first baseman while giving up less valuable assets than duran. And at this point in the season I don’t think a logical trade partner really jumps out to swap duran for major league ready/controlled sp talent.
Wash needs to hire Scott Hatteberg to work on that corner pick in’ defence…