Roberts: Chance Of Ohtani Pitching Before All-Star Break Is “North Of Zero”

Shohei Ohtani threw his third live session against hitters today and, as Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times relays, his 44 pitches across three simulated innings of work went so well that Dodgers manager Dave Roberts went as far as to admit that the organization hasn’t completely ruled out the idea of Ohtani returning to the mound sooner than previously expected. The expectation in recent weeks has been that Ohtani would return to the mound at some point following the All-Star break, which runs from July 14 to July 17 this year. Today, however, Harris notes that Roberts indicated to reporters that there’s a “north of zero” chance that Ohtani is pitching in major league games before the break.

It’s a notable update on Ohtani’s timeline, even though Roberts’s phrasing hardly frames the idea of a return before the midsummer classic as guaranteed or even likely. Ohtani’s timeline has been kept extremely vague by Dodgers officials ever since he began ramping up shortly after Opening Day after his pitching rehab was paused in late February. Prior to that pause, the Dodgers were thought to be targeting a return to pitching at some point in May for Ohtani, but the timeline was pushed back to at some point in the second half after the club began to slow down his rehab process. In recent weeks, Roberts and team officials had begun to point to the All-Star break as the point after which Ohtani pitching in big league games for the Dodgers could be on the table.

That the possibility of him pitching before then has been acknowledged publicly at this point underscores that his rehab has been going quite well to this point, but could also be an acknowledgement of the Dodgers’ significant needs in the rotation. The Dodgers sport a 40-27 record at the moment that’s excellent on paper but doesn’t quite live up to the lofty expectations hoisted upon the reigning World Series champs before the season began. They’re just 1.5 games up on the Giants in the NL West, and would finish half a game back of the Cubs for a bye through the Wild Card round of the playoffs if the season ended today.

Issues with starting pitching have been the biggest thing holding the Dodgers back from pulling away from the rest of the league this year, as their 4.66 FIP in the rotation is worse than every NL club except the lowly Rockies. With eight starting pitchers currently on the IL and Ohtani also sidelined, L.A. is currently operating with a patchwork rotation that features Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dustin May, Clayton Kershaw, and Justin Wrobleski. Yamamoto is in the NL Cy Young conversation this year, but Kershaw and especially May have pitched more like back-of-the-rotation veterans this year than the dominant arms they’ve been in previous seasons. Virtually any rotation in baseball would be better off with Ohtani’s electric arm in the mix, but the state of the Dodgers’ pitching staff could make them especially eager to get Ohtani back into the fold.

Of course, that’s not to say they’re about the rush their two-way superstar back into pitching before they’re confident he’s ready. It would have been easy for the Dodgers to make Ohtani in at least some capacity during last year’s playoff run, when the pitching staff was down so many starters they had to run regular bullpen games throughout the playoffs. They elected not to do so, however, instead prioritizing making sure Ohtani was fully healthy and ready to resume pitching before risking putting him on the mound in a big league game again. Even with today’s comments from Roberts, there’s little reason to think the Dodgers would send Ohtani out to the mound at Dodger Stadium before the break unless they’re completely confident he’s ready to resume pitching at a high level.