MLBTR has kicked off a new series for Front Office subscribers! Over the next few weeks, we’re going team-by-team and examining every club’s deadline outlook as trade season approaches. There are some teams that’ll be easy to categorize as buyers or sellers, but many still find themselves right on the bubble where their play over the next four to six weeks takes on extra importance.
There’s nuance even for teams that are clearly into buy or sell mode. Where are those organizations from a payroll perspective? Are the buyers all-in for 2025 or just opening a long-term competitive window? Are the sellers committed to a multi-year rebuild, or are they likely to focus only on moving rentals while hanging onto players who are controllable beyond this season? Might the baseball operations leader be on the hot seat, and if so, how could that impact their deadline decisions?
We’ll start the series with a focus on teams that have moved to the far ends of the standings, giving a bit more time for the fringe contenders to clarify their plans. This edition focuses on the Marlins, a franchise which has been undergoing a huge pivot, despite making the playoffs two years ago.
Record: 29-44 (0.0% playoff probability)
Sell Mode
Impending Free Agent: Cal Quantrill
The Marlins have already shipped out a lot of their veteran players in recent years and also made little effort to bolster their roster in the offseason. They signed two free agents this past winter. One of them was Eric Wagaman, who came into this year with 18 games of big league experience and who can be controlled until he reaches six years of service time.
The other was Cal Quantrill, who signed a one-year, $3.5MM deal. The Marlins will surely make him available this summer, though the value will surely be modest. He's a back-end guy, at best, and contending clubs won't pay a huge price for that.
A playoff-caliber starter would fetch a much larger return, but Quantrill has a 5.68 earned run average over his 14 starts this year. There's probably a bit of bad luck in there, with his FIP at 4.43 and his SIERA at 4.49, but his strikeout rate has been subpar in every full season of his career. The Pirates got a lottery-ticket prospect for Martín Pérez last summer, and that's probably what the Marlins will be looking at here.
Controllable Trade Candidates: Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Sánchez, Anthony Bender, Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers, Max Meyer, Otto López, Kyle Stowers, Janson Junk, Calvin Faucher, Derek Hill, Dane Myers, Xavier Edwards, Andrew Nardi, Jesús Tinoco, Ronny Henriquez, Nick Fortes
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Jordan Walker
Andre Pallante
For
Sandy Alcantara
Mozeliak can get back one of the ones that got away before he hits the road.
Walker is garbage and no way Miami would accept that trade, but more importantly why would the Cardinals be acquiring pieces they aren’t a good team in the race.
The Cardinals are a half game out of the wildcard as of today. And Alcantara isn’t a rental hes under control potentially through 2027. And if Walker is garbage what is Alcantara? Neither are playing well. Walker was a former number 1 overall in baseball prospect.
Alcantara is an ace that is in his first year back from TJS and hasn’t given up more than 2 runs in June (3 starts). He seems to be rounding back into form and his velocity has been there all year just not pinpoint command. No chance you’re getting him for a package with Walker in it, he is not a desirable asset. It will cost a top 100 prospect plus depending low on the list the headliner is.
*2 runs in a game in June.
Alcantara is not pitching like an ace. Not even close. He’s had 3 decent starts ok great his season numbers are still bad.
Walker has the value of a top 100 prospect. He’s a former number 1 overall prospect. He hasn’t played well but he is still talented.
Alcantara has won a Cy Young and is proven at MLB level. Walker can’t field and has yet to prove himself at MLB level in any facet of the game. He might be talented, but he is nowhere near as valuable as Alcantara and his value is currently far less than when he was top prospect.
Alcantara is owed about 30 million over the next year and a half and has a near 7 ERA and is supposedly healthy. Time is running out for him to get it together for the Marlins to benefit from it in anyway. Wouldn’t be the first time a great pitcher got injured and was never the same again.
In June he has a 2.12 ERA in 3 starts, one of those was against the phils who we’re just coming off smacking the jays starters around all weekend in a sweep.
Biggest difference is his control is back walking only 3 in 17 innings while he previously walked 29 in 51 innings to start the year.
Not saying he is going to regain cy young form, but typically control is the last thing back, if he turned the corner his value on the market will be much higher to competing teams than what is being suggested above
King. Of. Cards
Jordan Walker
Andre Pallante
For
Sandy Alcantara
===========================
So a 26 year old rookie and a former prospect with a career -1.8 bWAR? Everyone in BB will offer more than that.
Pallante isn’t a rookie. Perhaps you don’t know what the heck you are talking about fella. Stick to Boston sports.
Key point is, MIA is in no rush to sell Alcantara low.
He’s got more control remaining. Makes more sense to hold him to to the offseason if not next year’s deadline if the club thinks he’s turned a corner. Let him solidify those results.
Unless a trade pays closer to what he’s done this month, than looking at this year, as his likely production going forward, there’s no good reason to consider moving him.
Walker is similar to Alcantara in that his stock is down and he might be more valuable later on. Thats why the trade makes sense for both teams.
Not really the same…
One has succeeded to post results among the best in MLB
One never made the jump, successfully, to ever post positive value over playing time in 3 different mlb seasons.
Unfortunately, the bust rate for top100 prospects is more fail than even become journeyman. And being a 1st round pick isn’t any better for success rate.
The trade absolutely makes sense for StL, but zero sense for MIA. Walker is about a lottery ticket at this point, and the type of player that becomes dfa fodder for cash considerations, especially considering options.
Of course they aren’t the same. One is a former top prospect one is a veteran coming off an injury.
Walker wasnt just a top 100 prospect he was THE NUMBER ONE OVERALL PROSPECT IN ALL OF BASEBALL.
DFA candidate? You don’t have a clue what you are talking about.
Yes, this is the type of player that usually winds up a DFA candidate down the road.
His options were burned by StL. After 2025, if you don’t want him on your 26 man you’ve gotta pass him through waivers, including out of ST.
He’s a negative defense corner outfielder. Every metric seems.to give him negative ratings. His K rate has jumped every year from being above 1/4 to now headed north of being 1/3 of his appearances. Poor hitting, and, hasn’t been able to adjust to catch up to mlb pitching once they got a read on him. Even the first season where his bat was ok – not great – his defense was so bad he was a slightly negative value player over what, more than 110 games. And it’s gotten much worse since. His OPS drops further each year, as his k rate goes up.
This is the kind of player that gets a long leash to play as long as its on a non contending team. Thats why a trade makes sense. Alcantara is no guarantee to bounce back and hes expensive too.
While it would be silly to give up on Walker at 23, it’s important to note that he’s had 800+ ABs to this point and has been an average hitter for the first 400 and one of the worst batters in baseball the last 2 seasons.
Cardinals probably won’t sell him when his value is so low and an acquiring team is probably not interested in him as a centre piece of a trade
It had been some time since Walker was the top prospect. Since then he has had numerous opportunities over 3 seasons and shown no agility to hit MLB pitching. He has also shown 0 ability to be even be average defensively.
The reality is Walker does not have even close to the value Alcantra has.
It makes sense for the Cards to trade him and get anything they can before hes worth even less. As for MIA it makes little sense to aquire him. Parlance does not make much sense for them either, they only gain one extra year of control opposed to Alcantra. MIA has some exciting young bats with plenty of team control. Pitchers just nearing MLB level would beat fit where they currently stand.
Alcantara has made huge strides in getting back to the pitcher he was. That is something hard to see for someone who does not watch baseball is just a fan of baseball stats and news….
FYI every player nothing in future is guaranteed. An injury, freak accident, yips, etc. could rear its ugly head. So thats really a non factor as it applies to all players. The reality is MIA would not want these players for the same reasons you listed them in your hypothetical trade, they would be better off with Alcantra.
I can save you the $10, if it ain’t nailed down -and it some cases even if it is -it’s for sale. EVERYTHING must go! Ahahahahaha!
“..even laid off a massive number of staff members…” this made me chuckle. The fact this team has 2 World Series championships shows anything is possible
The first one Wayne Huizenga bought and was fixed through umpiring. It doesn’t count.
Casor – One championship was bought, and the other was Dombrowski.
Marlins, Pirates and Rockies should all be sold to owners who want to compete
Add the Nationals to that list.
To be fair, the Rockies owner does want to compete, he’s just incompetent
Marlins have a peanut vendor I hope my team trades for!
This is a great series, thanks!
Darcy at least a couple teams should be gone period. If only for a very diluted talent pool. It seems the youngsters are more interested in football and basketball these days. There are probably 3-4 guys on every MLB team that should never have played over the AAA level. Make MLB more competive and contract not expand.
That makes no sense at all.
Wrong. The talent pool is bigger than ever. You want to see a diluted talent pool? Look back to the pre-integration days.
I continue to be surprised by Stowers, hard to get value in a deal for a guy with that much control amid a breakout year, but that profile doesn’t seem sustainable. Super high whif rates, without a patient approach doesn’t seem like this will last for years.
He’s already dropped down. Last month ops was .850 with 10 homers. Now still at 10 homers and ops .800 plus as of this month they are now sitting him against lefties. He hasn’t been the same since he missed a week with that hand soreness.
Alcantara and Fortes to Dodgers for Rushing and Ferris
Or
Alcantara to Cubs for Ballesteros, Long and Triantos
Cubs offer is more likely minus triantos
Dodgers probably wouldn’t offer rushing because they think he’s got a chance in the outfield (follow the path of young Kyle schwarber)
Sandy is definitely worth one top 100 prospect but 2 top 100s is too much
What is this member bs?
That’s for people who are willing to squeeze $2.50 a month for mlbtr into their budget.
You don’t know what a membership is?
As the bidding for an alcantara escalates closer to the deadline, hoyer and the cubs will be left holding empty bag. Hoyer not aggressive.
Edward Cabrera to the A’s