The Orioles managed to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Rays earlier today but are still 10 games under .500 with a -99 run differential. They’re 13.5 games out of first place in the American League East and 8.5 games back of an AL Wild Card spot — with seven teams they’d need to leapfrog to get there. They already traded righty Bryan Baker to the Rays earlier in the month, and general manager Mike Elias suggested in an interview on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that further players are likely to be shipped out. The GM made clear, however, that he’s focused on trading short-term pieces and not players who are under club control well beyond the current season.
“When we’re at this point in the standings and 11 days away from the trade deadline, we’ve got to be realistic about our situation,” Elias said. “The conversations I’m having right now are more oriented toward what’s out there for some of our available major league players. We’re not blowing up the team. We think we’re going to be very good again in 2026 and have that intention. We’re not interested in changing the foundation of the team, but to the degree that we have players that interest other clubs, who are coming towards the end of their contracts, we’ve got to listen to that. That’s what we’re spending our time on now.”
Whether it’s Elias who has an aversion to long-term contracts or the two ownership groups under which he’s worked — the Angelos family sold the Orioles to a group led by David Rubenstein prior to the 2024 season — the Orioles don’t have many players signed long-term. Elias has only signed one free agent (Tyler O’Neill) to a multi-year contract and has not brokered extensions with any of the team’s young core. They have a very appealing group of young players who are still controlled via arbitration, but Baltimore’s proclivity for one-year contracts gives them plenty of players to market in the next couple weeks.
First baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn, center fielder Cedric Mullins and corner outfielder Ramon Laureano are all in their final guaranteed seasons in Baltimore. (Laureano does have a reasonable $6.5MM club option for 2026). Catcher Gary Sanchez is also on a one-year deal, although he’s likely out until September due to a sprained posterior cruciate ligament in his right knee.
On the pitching side of things, starters Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano are all free agents at season’s end, as are relievers Gregory Soto and Seranthony Dominguez. Right-hander Andrew Kittredge, like Laureano, is on a one-year deal with a club option for the 2026 season. His is valued at $9MM.
O’Hearn, earning $8MM this season, is hitting .282/.378/.458 with a dozen homers. He’d be one of the best rental bats on the market. Mullins is earning $8.725MM and hitting just .218/.300/.4o5 with 13 homers and 14 steals, but he’s one of very few center field options who could be available. The resurgent Laureano is having a career-best year at the plate, hitting .276/.340/.498 through 247 plate appearances while earning just a $4MM salary.
Eflin has been out for nearly a month due to a back injury, which presumably contribute to him surrendering 17 runs in his final nine innings before being placed on the injured list. That ugly stretch ballooned his ERA all the way to 5.95, but he had a 4.08 mark prior to that stretch and is coming off a 2023-24 run in which he tossed 343 innings with a 3.54 ERA and terrific strikeout/walk rates. He’s making $18MM this season. Eflin has posted a 1.50 ERA in three minor league rehab starts, and he told Jake Rill of MLB.com yesterday that he feels like he’s ready to rejoin the rotation.
Morton’s struggles earlier this season were in many ways emblematic of the team’s struggles as a whole. He’s righted the ship after being dropped to the bullpen for a few weeks, though. While the 41-year-old righty is still sporting a grisly 5.58 ERA, he has a 3.47 mark in his past 47 innings. Morton was trounced for seven runs in his most recent outing versus Tampa Bay, but he’d pitched 51 2/3 innings of 2.61 ERA ball prior to that. Even with the ugly last start, he looks largely back on track, though his $15MM salary is another impediment.
Sugano, 35, is in his first big league season. A longtime star in Japan’s NPB, his year has been the inverse of Morton’s: a terrific start followed by an extended rough patch. Sugano carried a 3.04 ERA into June despite possessing one of the lowest strikeout rates in the sport (14.2%), but his lack of missed bats has caught up to him. He has a 7.94 ERA and has been torched for seven home runs over his past six starts (28 1/3 innings). He’s on a $13MM salary.
The left-handed Soto and right-handed Dominguez both miss plenty of bats and have shaky command, although Soto has his walk rate down to a more passable 10.1% this year. Both average better than 97 mph on their heaters, and their ERAs (3.67 for Soto, 3.72 for Dominguez) are nearly identical. Fielding-independent metrics grade them similarly as well, pegging them both in the mid-3.00s. Soto is making $5.35MM to Dominguez’s $8MM. The 35-year-old Kittredge missed the first two months of the season due to a knee procedure he required during spring training but has been solid since returning: 3.86 ERA, 22.9% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate.
It’s not clear from Elias’ comments whether the Orioles will at least entertain offers on players controlled beyond the current season. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported last week that Elias has at least heard out other teams who’ve called on lefty Trevor Rogers and closer Felix Bautista, but that could be mere due diligence. Bautista, controlled two more seasons via arbitration, would be a particularly shock if moved. The Dodgers are among the teams who’ve called, but a deal feels decidedly unlikely.
The O’s have some buy-low bats, but it’s hard to imagine anyone taking on even a portion of O’Neill’s contract when he’s signed through 2027 and hitting just .182/.270/.327. Ryan Mountcastle is an interesting buy-low option, but he hit just .246/.280/.348 before a hamstring tear sent him to the 60-day IL. He’ll begin a rehab assignment soon and could be a non-tender candidate with a poor finish, so perhaps there’s more willingness to listen there. Baltimore’s core seems unlikely to be available in any capacity, however. It’d be a true stunner if any of Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser or Jackson Holliday wound up being seriously discussed.
Gonna miss ceddy 🙁
How many teams would actually be interested in o’hearn as an every day bat? I feel like orioles fans are going to be unimpressed with the return they get for him.
Mets might have some interest in Mullins for CF but I’m guessing they aim higher.
Plenty of teams can use an upgrade with a LHH 1B. Not a single one of them is netting a top 8 prospect from any org.
I agree. If their goal is to dump only expiring contracts, their return will be unimpressive. If their goal is to get a good return, they must deal from their controllable talent.
“We think we’re going to be very good again in 2026…” – Elias
They’re salary dumps like you’ve noted, Clip.
Yeah they aren’t going to get a big return on any of those pending free agents.
Most of them should be tradable. Will see how the market shapes up in the next week when several teams will have to decide if they are buyers or sellers.
My gut says we will see a few more sellers enter the market. The additional wild card slots will likely mean teams will be making final decisions 2-3 days before the deadline.
The type of return they get is going to be extremely dependant on their willingness to pay the salaries of these players. Many of their soon to be free agents are getting paid a lot and in many cases more than they are actually worth. But if Baltimore pays the salaries they could get a lot more back.
I’m not sure they get a lot more back. Most of them aren’t having good seasons. So the O’s may need to pay some of them down just to trade them at all.
A couple of them should bring a decent prospect or a couple of flyers. The likely to be traded isn’t very impressive
Single top 30 prospect perhaps, compared to prospect rich Sox and Rays, looking like the Os could be stuck at the bottom in a few seasons
There’s many issues with how orioles do business such as refusal to address their rotation needs last 4 seasons and constantly drafting OFs in the first.
But until proven otherwise they’ll be stocked on the farm through drafting simply cause they just refuse to trade guys. Restocking the farm won’t take long they’ll get high picks from this down season pick up a few prospects from selling
Hopefully they go out and get the sp they need for 2026 though
Miller and sheehan for felix is a trade id consider
Too little for felix
Unfortunately, the Dodgers would also have to consider that deal.
If I were the dodgers I would do Ferris on top of river ryan and/or wrobleski
Amazing they haven’t locked up at least one of their core guys while they could get a cheaper deal done.
Boras clients.
That could be part of the issue.
Out of all their rentals available who actually has positive trade value?
OHearn and maybe Soto?
Morton at 15 million
Sugano 13 million
Efflin 18 million
Kittredge 9 million
Sanchez over 8 million
Mullins over 8 million
Dominguez 8 million
They sure have a ton of money coming off the books one way or another.
The bottom of that list nobody would pay them that for the season they are having.
Yeah if they eat some money then teams might want those guys but if they dont they won’t find a taker for most of them.
Fugly roster construction. All those names under water (save Laureano). Aside from getting gifted consecutive top 5 picks not much going on in the player operations suite
Hope the Mariners get Dominguez and O’Hearn
Good call. Both would help the M’s immensely.
I’d rather get the lefty reliever. O’Hearn has been slumping for the last month.
Just 6 weeks ago Mullins looked like a QO candidate. After stinking it up, he’s on bubble and likely won’t bring much back as rental. Elias will prob keep him and hope he shows better thru oct to merit the QO, turn it down, and so get ME the precious 33 comp pick.
Since QO hurts the deal the fa can get, Mullins agent prob told him to get himself traded, so he’s telling people he wants to stay, implying he will accept the QO.
Mullins will need to go on a MVP-level tear to even sniff a ~$22.3M Q.O.
Yeah that’s not happening
saj, Your perception is a month behind reality. He may have played like a QO player for 5 weeks in March/April. But by early June (iand had been in the mid-500s for the previous 5 to 6 weeks. No one anywhere is thinking about OPS candidates in April, and by early June that perception was not going to surface.
In my opinion, anyone not name Henderson or Holliday you at least hear a team out. Sure you have a young controllable (for a little while) group of position players. But what is the future of our rotation? Bradish, Wells and Grayson? All of whom have not pitched in a year or so plus? Its hard to say blow up the team when theres plenty of positional talent but brother, what is our pitching staff right now? None of these guys in the rotation were really supposed to be relied on long term save for Kremer who may be pitching currently like a #2 slot but has certainly not been that type of guy in his career.
It seems to me Elias was expecting to be able to weather the injury storm for the rotation arms with a bunch of cheap moves. Literally no one liked the O’s offseason pitching wise, even fewer liked it when you account for the O’Neill signing.
TL;DR at least hear teams out on nearly everyone in my opinion, because while we have talented position players, our rotation is in shambles until it proves it can stay healthy, which in todays mlb is a gamble that no one should be willing to take.
Obviously Trevor Rogers is part of next year’s rotation the way he’s pitching. Right now it’s Bradish, Rogers, Kremer and then anybody’s guess. Grayson Rodriguez may be done as a starter — same for Wells. Time to see what they can do in the bullpen. Povich seems more like a 6 man or long reliever — at least for now. Just like this offseason the O’s need at least two new starters next season, assuming Bradish is healthy (and assuming Eflin is not back). Otherwise they need three additional starters.
If Samuel were in charge, he would trade some of those worthless prospects for some veterans who can field their position and execute some fundamentals.
Lot of janky players. Older dudes and platoon bats. Hard pass unless they’re just waiving guys to save salary
Finding a deal for Mullins might require threading a needle. He and Luis Robert both hit lefties, but don’t hit RHers. Mullins is less bad against RH pitching, but Robert is playing better D this year, and running the bases/stealing well. Robert costs more, but the ChiSOx are reportedly willing to eat some salary in order to move him.
Bottom line is that both players occupy the same space – flawed players who have some (not much) upside for a team that desperately needs what they offer.