Ryan O'Hearn

It’s been just shy of a year since MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wrote, “The Orioles may have found the lefty bat they wanted” when writing about Ryan O’Hearn’s then-nascent breakout in Baltimore. Acquired from the Royals in exchange for cash on the heels of a DFA, O’Hearn was subsequently designated for assignment by the Orioles as well before being passed through waivers unclaimed and sent outright to Triple-A Norfolk.

It was the sort of ostensible unremarkable trade that is made hundreds of times over the course of a calendar year and quickly forgotten — until it wasn’t. As most are aware — certainly every Orioles fan — O’Hearn indeed emerged as the left-handed bat Baltimore had sought. At the time of Darragh’s piece last year, O’Hearn was slashing .308/.348/.542 with six home runs in 115 plate appearances. It wasn’t a big sample and he wasn’t walking much (5.2%), but O’Hearn’s batted-ball data supported much of that early flurry. He finished the year in strong fashion, seeing regular playing time against right-handed pitching and ending the year with a stout .289/.322/.480 slash — 18% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+.

For a player who’d hit .211/.282/.351 with a 27% strikeout rate over the four prior seasons in Kansas City (2019-22) before being designated for assignment, last season was a stunning breakout. The Orioles would’ve been thrilled just to have that one year, but O’Hearn came to Baltimore with four-plus years of playing time, making him controllable through the 2024 season. It was a no-brainer to tender him a contract and go through the arbitration process with him, and even if he reverted back to his 2019-22 form or regressed some at the plate, the entire gambit of acquiring him would’ve been well worth it based on 2023 alone.

O’Hearn, however, hasn’t reverted to his 2019-22 form. He hasn’t regressed closer to league-average. He hasn’t maintained the status quo and or even taken just a small step forward. Rather, he’s taken his game to an entirely new level, not just in terms of his raw run-production but also his approach at the plate.

In 189 plate appearances this season — all but 11 coming against right-handed pitching, it should be noted — O’Hearn is batting .287/.384/.489. He’s been 38% better than league-average, per wRC+. He’s already belted nine homers, six doubles and a triple.

He’s also struck out 19 times. In 189 plate appearances. Lest you think that was a typo, let’s write it out: nineteen times.

O’Hearn, who entered the 2024 season with a lifetime 25.6% strikeout rate in the big leagues, has at 30 years old simply become allergic to strikeouts. He’s also nearly doubled his walk rate from last year’s 4.1% to 7.9%. That feat isn’t as eye-popping on its own, given O’Hearn’s penchant for drawing free passes earlier in his career (11.5% from 2018-20), but it does serve to further underscore the evolution of his approach at the plate.

By measure of Statcast, O’Hearn chased 32% of pitches off the plate in 2023. This year, that number is down to 26.5%. He’s making contact on balls out of the strike zone at a career-best 64.4% clip, and his ability to connect on pitches within the strike zone has also ticked up. This year’s 90.6% mark is a career-best and sits more than five percentage points north of the 85.3% league average.

The uptick in volume of contact has come at the expense of some of his quality of contact, but that’s not to say O’Hearn is getting by with a series of well-placed bloops and weak grounders. His 90.4 mph average exit velocity and 41.9% hard-hit rate are both strong — they’re just down from last year’s respective marks of 91.9 mph and 51.5%. He’s in the 72nd and 75th percentile of MLB players in terms of exit velo and hard-hit rate, plus the 85th percentile of hitters in terms of whiff rate. Even with less life on his average batted ball, the increased frequency of contact leads Statcast to project O’Hearn in the 94th percentile or better in terms of his expected batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA.

It bears repeating that some of the reasoning for both his quality of contact and his gaudy expected stats is that O’Hearn is shielded nearly entirely from left-on-left matchups. His career performance in such situations (.168/.236/.286) rather emphatically shows that he’s benefited from Baltimore’s aggressive platooning. That somewhat specialized role doesn’t detract from his usefulness however, and when coupled with the nonexistent cost of acquisition, O’Hearn continues to cement himself as one of the current front office regime’s savviest acquisitions.

Speaking of savvy, any discussion of O’Hearn’s production should also touch on the slugger’s contract status. As noted before, O’Hearn came to Baltimore with two seasons of club control remaining. However, the two parties weren’t able to agree on a middle ground in arbitration prior to exchanging figures. O’Hearn filed for a $3.8MM salary to the Orioles’ $3.2MM figure. The two parties ultimately avoided a hearing at the eleventh hour, agreeing to a $3.5MM salary for the 2024 season — the midpoint between their submitted figures — as well as a club option for the 2025 campaign.

That would’ve been O’Hearn’s first free-agent season, but the O’s now have control over next year at a $7.5MM price point. O’Hearn would boost that option value by $500K upon appearing in 120 and 150 games. The latter of those two numbers won’t happen. O’Hearn has already been absent from 14 Orioles games. He’s on pace to appear in 127 games, however, making the first of those $500K escalators still not only attainable but likely.

The club option was notable at the time but hardly a lock to be exercised or even emerge as a borderline decision. But, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco quipped to me when chatting about O’Hearn’s newfound contact skills, few realized he was going to “turn into Luis Arraez with power.” That’s a bit of an overstatement of course — Arraez has fanned at a ridiculous 5.7% clip since Opening Day 2023 — but O’Hearn currently possesses the seventh-lowest strikeout rate of the 248 hitters with at least 150 plate appearances this season. Of the 30 players in that set who have a strikeout rate of 15% or lower, the only one hitting for more power than O’Hearn (by measure of ISO) is Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez. Securing what now looks to be a wildly affordable club option for a third season in order to avoid a hearing over a $600K difference in figures looks like a raucous bargain for the Orioles.

O’Hearn may be a limited player by virtue of his platoon splits and lackluster defensive ratings both in the outfield corners and at first base, but he’s developed one of the most unique skill sets in the game and made himself a vital member of one of MLB’s top offenses. On two different occasions in the 2022-23 offseason, any club could’ve acquired O’Hearn for nothing more than cash or a waiver claim.

The Orioles clearly didn’t expect this level of outcome — they wouldn’t have designated him for assignment if they did — but they deserve credit for seeing value where others didn’t. Much of the focus on Baltimore’s success is rightly placed on young core of players either drafted by the O’s (Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, etc.) or acquired via trade (Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Cade Povich), but hitting the jackpot on a small-scale pickup like O’Hearn is the sort of move that can be a separator, providing a high-end complementary player to help take an impressive core to the next level.

The Orioles made it pretty clear they wanted to get a cheap left-handed bat this winter to play either first base, a corner outfield spot or designated hitter. They signed players like Nomar Mazara and Franchy Cordero to minor league deals. They claimed Jake Cave and Ryan O’Hearn off waivers and twice claimed Lewin Díaz.

It’s fairly understandable why they would covet that type of player, given their in-house options for those bat-first roles. Ryan Mountcastle has been the club’s primary first baseman for a while and hits right-handed. He doesn’t have drastic platoon splits but has hit .265/.315/.495 against lefties in his career for a 118 wRC+, compared to a .251/.303/.434 line and 102 wRC+ against righties. Outfielder/designated hitter Anthony Santander is a switch hitter but is also better against lefties: .264/.325/.471 and 117 wRC+ against southpaws but .242/.295/.454 and 102 wRC+ against northpaws. Austin Hays and Ryan McKenna also hit from the right side and have modest splits for their careers.

Adding a solid lefty bat into the mix would have been a way to add some flexibility and occasionally shield those guys from tough matchups. But since it wasn’t a desperate situation, it made sense the O’s stuck to modest moves as opposed to a big signing. Most of those small transactions haven’t worked out, however. Cave was later lost to the Phillies when the O’s tried to pass him through waivers. Both Cordero and Mazara opted out of their deals when they didn’t make the Opening Day roster and are now with other clubs. Díaz was passed through waivers and is hitting at a league average rate in Triple-A this year.

The one player from that bunch who is on the roster is O’Hearn. He had previously spent his entire career with the Royals, having been drafted by them back in 2014. He made it to the big leagues in 2018 and showed his potential that year, hitting .262/.353/.597 in his first 44 games for a 153 wRC+. But he struggled badly in subsequent campaigns, hitting just .211/.282/.351 in 901 plate appearances from 2019 to 2022.

Despite four consecutive rough seasons, the Royals tendered O’Hearn a contract for 2023, avoiding arbitration by agreeing to a $1.4MM salary with $250K in bonuses. But in December, they designated him for assignment, perhaps hoping his rough track record and a salary roughly twice the league minimum would tamp down any interest from other clubs. But the O’s weren’t swayed and sent cash considerations to the Royals in order to facilitate a deal, though they themselves passed him through waivers in January.

O’Hearn technically could have rejected the outright assignment and elected free agency due to having more than three years of service time, but he was shy of the five-year mark and would have had to forfeit that money in order to do so. He made the obvious decision to hang onto that cash and stick with the O’s, fighting for his roster spot.

He was eventually selected to the roster a couple of weeks into the season, on April 13. He received sporadic playing time over the next few weeks, getting 22 plate appearances over nine games, hitting just .263/.318/.316 in those for a 77 wRC+. He was optioned to the minors on May 5 but quickly recalled on May 9, able to return after less than the minimum 10 days because Ramón Urías was placed on the injured list.

Since that recall, he has been on an absolute tear. He’s hit six home runs in 93 plate appearances across 27 games. His .318/.355/.591 slash line in that time amounts to a 161 wRC+. This is still a small sample size but it’s a very encouraging development after years of looking lost at the plate. The O’s have shielded him from left-handed pitchers, as he has just six plate appearances against them this year compared to 109 against righties. But when a righty is on the mound, he’s impressed enough to get the cleanup spot in their lineup.

It’s dangerous to draw too many broad conclusions from such a small bit of data, but there’s also reason to suspect a meaningful change has taken place. O’Hearn recently spoke to Nathan Ruiz of The Baltimore Sun about some changes in his mechanics suggested by hitting coaches Ryan Fuller and Matt Borgschulte, who focused on his hip rotation and hand placement. When asked if it was strange that no one pointed out these issues with his mechanics before, he replied “You could say that.” Perhaps the shift to a different organizational philosophy and approach was just what he needed to tap into his potential.

There are encouraging numbers beyond the traditional stat line. Statcast pegs his average exit velocity at 93.4 mph this year, which would be a career high. The same goes for his 14.6% barrel rate and 56.1% hard hit rate. Among players with at least 50 batted ball events this year, that average exit velocity places him 15th in the league, matching Yordan Alvarez and just ahead of guys like Juan Soto and Randy Arozarena. That hard hit rate places him in eighth place among that same group.

We’re still talking about a limited sample here and essentially a strict platoon deployment, but for a guy who’s making a small salary and was designated for assignment twice this winter, getting any kind of production is a great find. If it continues for the next few months, the O’s can keep him for an extra season as well, as he’s currently on pace to finish 2023 with just over five years of MLB service time. That means he’ll be eligible for one more arbitration season in 2024 before qualifying for free agency.*

(*Sidenote: O’Hearn seems likely to benefit from a feature in the CBA that awards service time for brief optional assignments. “If a Player is optionally assigned for a total of less than 20 days in one championship season, the Player shall be credited with Major League service during the period of such optional assignment(s).” O’Hearn therefore won’t be dinged for that brief option in May, getting service time from his April 13 selection to the end of the year. This year’s season is 186 days long but a player needs 172 days to get a full year. O’Hearn missed the first 14 days of the season and will get exactly that 172 figure. Since he began this year with his service time clock at 4.002, he should finish 2023 at 5.002. Future optional assignments could change that trajectory, but he would have to fall off at the plate in order for the O’s to consider that. Full CBA text courtesy of the MLBPA.)

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports