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Ryan O'Hearn

Padres Acquire Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano

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The Padres’ frenetic trade deadline continued today, as they bolstered their offense by trading for first baseman/outfielder Ryan O’Hearn and outfielder Ramon Laureano from the Orioles.  Six 2024 Padres draft picks will head to Baltimore in return: Boston Bateman, Cobb Hightower, Tyson Neighbors, Brandon Butterworth, Victor Figueroa and Tanner Smith.

O’Hearn and Laureano stood as two of the more obvious trade candidates on the Orioles’ roster. The former is a pure rental earning an $8MM salary in 2025, while the latter is owed $4MM this year and has a $6.5MM club option for the 2026 season. Both are in the midst of productive seasons at the plate, and both will provide noted upgrades to San Diego’s lineup.

The 32-year-old O’Hearn was acquired from the Royals for peanuts three years ago. His stock was low enough after the acquisition that Baltimore even succeeded in passing him through waivers. O’Hearn was selected back to the majors mid-April in 2023 and never looked back. He hit .289/.322/.480 that season and has now slashed .277/.342/.454 in three years as an Oriole. Along the way, he’s radically improved his plate discipline and hit tool. O’Hearn walked in only 4% of his 2023 plate appearances while fanning at a 22.3% clip. He’s up to an 11.6% walk rate in 2025 and has fanned at a 14% clip and 17.5% pace, respectively, in the past two seasons.

O’Hearn doesn’t hit lefties well, despite holding his own in 2025, so the Friars will likely platoon him to the extent possible. Adding a right-handed bat like Laureano makes that goal easier. The 31-year-old is in the midst of a career year at the plate, hitting .290/.355/.529 (144 wRC+) with 15 home runs in 290 plate appearances. He handles lefties well enough to take some at-bats off O’Hearn’s plate, but Laureano’s production in right-on-right matchups this year (.305/.368/.563) should be robust enough that he’s in the lineup on a daily basis.

The Padres can plug Laureano in as their primary left fielder and install O’Hearn at first base or designated hitter versus right-handed pitching. O’Hearn and Luis Arraez give the Friars a pair of lefty-swinging first base/DH options with plus contact skills (though Arraez is in a class of his own in that regard). Gavin Sheets likely loses some playing time as a result of this, though pushing him to the bench with Laureano and O’Hearn in the starting lineup makes for a much deeper group of hitters all around. Sheets being pushed into a limited role probably reduces the opportunities for Bryce Johnson and Trenton Brooks.

Laureano has played primarily in the outfield corners for the Orioles this season, though he’s no stranger to center field, either. He’s drawn plus marks in both corners both this year and throughout his big league career. That’s an important element of the acquisition in and of itself; the Padres have been a roughly average team defensively in left field this year, but that’s due primarily to early contributions from the since-released Jason Heyward. Sheets has seen plenty of time in left field and posted below-average marks there. Laureano should be a boost both with the bat and with the glove.

Given next year’s $6.5MM option, Laureano seems quite likely to be more than just a short-term rental. He’ll give the Padres an option in left next year — and an affordable one at that.

For a Padres club that is bogged down by major financial commitments to Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Nick Pivetta (among others), that’s a notable perk. The Padres already have $166MM on next year’s payroll, not including arbitration raises to Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon and new acquisitions Freddy Fermin and JP Sears.

The Orioles will receive a heavy volume of lower-level prospects in exchange for the latest pair of veterans they’re shipping out. Bateman was the Padres’ second-round pick one year ago and took home an over-slot $2.5MM bonus. He’s a huge 6’8″ southpaw selected out of a California high school and has spent the 2025 season in Class-A, where he’s posted a 4.08 ERA with a 25.8% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate.

Baseball America ranked Bateman sixth in San Diego’s system. The lefty garners praise for a heater he runs up to 96 mph — which surely seems faster given the extension he can generate with his long levers — as well as an upper-70s curve with plus spin. He’ll have more work to do on his command as he continues to face more advanced hitters, and he’s still working to add a develop an average third pitch.

The 20-year-old Hightower was last year’s third-round pick by the Friars. He’s spent the season in Class-A and batted .239/.363/.314 in 190 plate appearances. BA had him eighth in the Padres’ system. Despite this year’s pedestrian output, he’s regarded as a bat-first infielder who may have to move off shortstop down the road.

Neighbors is a 6’1″, 220-pound righty whom San Diego selected in the fourth round out of Kansas State last year. He’s already climbed to Double-A and has pitched 43 2/3 innings with a 1.85 ERA, 37.6% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate in that time. Much of that success has come against younger competition, it should be noted. Baseball America calls Neighbors a no-doubt reliever with plus stuff and shaky command. He ranked 20th in the Padres’ system.

Butterworth was the Padres’ 12th-round pick last summer. The 22-year-old NC State product is having a nice year in High-A, slashing .267/.327/.455 with 11 homers, 17 doubles, seven triples and a 13-for-15 showing in stolen base attempts. He didn’t rank among the system’s 30 best prospects on BA’s most recent update. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen listed Butterworth as No. 38 among the 38 prospects he ranked in their system last month.

Smith was a 15th-rounder out of Harvard. He’s pitched out of the bullpen in the Padres’ system this year and logged a 3.46 ERA in 26 frames between the Rookie-level Complex League and their Low-A affiliate. The 6’6″ righty has missed plenty of bats but also walked 11.6% of his opponents. He’s not a ranked prospect in the system, nor is the 21-year-old Figueroa, whom the Padres took in last year’s 18th round. Figueroa is a first baseman and corner outfielder who’s hitting .318/.420/.588 between the Complex League and Low-A — impressive numbers on the surface that were primarily compiled against teenaged opposition in the low minors.

Latest On Ryan O’Hearn

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All-Star first baseman/DH/right fielder Ryan O’Hearn will be a free agent after the season, making him an obvious trade candidate given the Orioles’ struggles this year.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand says Baltimore’s price on O’Hearn is nonetheless “very high,” though that may be standard posturing with the trade deadline about two hours away.

O’Hearn, 32, has an excellent 134 wRC+ in 361 plate appearances this year.  It’s worth noting, however, that most of his production came in the season’s first two months, as the lefty slugger has slipped to a 92 wRC+ since June.  Also consider that O’Hearn requires a platoon partner; the Orioles sit him against southpaws on a regular basis.

The “very high” price tag, then, feels like a bit of a stretch, but O’Hearn is still a solid bat in a market light on those.  One potential suitor is the Rangers, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, althoughEvan Grant of the Dallas Morning News doesn’t see the fit. The Brewers were connected to O’Hearn two days ago.  Feinsand notes that the Astros were interested in O’Hearn, but the Marlins’ Jesus Sanchez is “now high on Houston’s radar.”

O’Hearn is earning $8MM this year, meaning about $2.5MM remains.  Given that the 2026 qualifying offer will likely be north of $21MM, the Orioles almost have to trade O’Hearn prior to the deadline to recoup some value.

Brewers Have Interest In Ryan O’Hearn

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The Brewers are among the teams with interest in Orioles first baseman Ryan O’Hearn, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. He adds that Milwaukee was one of the clubs in contact with the Diamondbacks about another lefty-hitting first baseman, Josh Naylor, before Arizona dealt him to Seattle.

O’Hearn is arguably just behind Naylor as the next-best impending free agent lefty hitter on the trade block. The 32-year-old O’Hearn was a first-time All-Star this season. He tore the cover off the ball for the season’s first two months, batting .333/.420/.542 with nine homers and eight doubles through the end of May. He’s down to a far less impressive .215/.318/.331 slash since the beginning of June. O’Hearn has been plagued by a meager .245 average on balls in play over this most recent stretch. His strikeout and walk profile remains strong, but his power output has dropped significantly. He only has three longballs over the past two months.

The slump is naturally a slight hit to O’Hearn’s trade value as Thursday’s deadline approaches. He’ll nevertheless be a popular target for teams looking for a boost against right-handed pitching. O’Hearn has a patient plate approach and has good if not elite batted ball metrics. He carries a strong .283/.348/.463 batting line when holding the platoon advantage going back to the start of 2023.

Baltimore is all but guaranteed to trade O’Hearn, who is a couple months from free agency. They presumably wouldn’t want to make him a qualifying offer, and they could give 23-year-old Coby Mayo everyday first base reps for the stretch run. O’Hearn is playing on an affordable $8MM salary, leaving roughly $2.5MM to be paid from the deadline on.

That should be a manageable sum for Milwaukee. They took on some money to fortify the backup catcher spot with tonight’s Danny Jansen trade. Jansen is another right-handed bat on a team that skews a little bit towards that side of the plate. They’re without lefty-hitting first baseman/corner outfielder Jake Bauers right now due to a shoulder impingement. O’Hearn is a better hitter than Bauers regardless. Andrew Vaughn has been playing first base every day with Rhys Hoskins also on the injured list. Vaughn has raked through his first 14 games in a Milwaukee uniform but hit .189/.218/.314 across 48 contests with the White Sox earlier in the year.

Elias: Orioles’ Trade Talks Focused On Players “Towards The End Of Their Contracts”

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The Orioles managed to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Rays earlier today but are still 10 games under .500 with a -99 run differential. They’re 13.5 games out of first place in the American League East and 8.5 games back of an AL Wild Card spot — with seven teams they’d need to leapfrog to get there. They already traded righty Bryan Baker to the Rays earlier in the month, and general manager Mike Elias suggested in an interview on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that further players are likely to be shipped out. The GM made clear, however, that he’s focused on trading short-term pieces and not players who are under club control well beyond the current season.

“When we’re at this point in the standings and 11 days away from the trade deadline, we’ve got to be realistic about our situation,” Elias said. “The conversations I’m having right now are more oriented toward what’s out there for some of our available major league players. We’re not blowing up the team. We think we’re going to be very good again in 2026 and have that intention. We’re not interested in changing the foundation of the team, but to the degree that we have players that interest other clubs, who are coming towards the end of their contracts, we’ve got to listen to that. That’s what we’re spending our time on now.”

Whether it’s Elias who has an aversion to long-term contracts or the two ownership groups under which he’s worked — the Angelos family sold the Orioles to a group led by David Rubenstein prior to the 2024 season — the Orioles don’t have many players signed long-term. Elias has only signed one free agent (Tyler O’Neill) to a multi-year contract and has not brokered extensions with any of the team’s young core. They have a very appealing group of young players who are still controlled via arbitration, but Baltimore’s proclivity for one-year contracts gives them plenty of players to market in the next couple weeks.

First baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn, center fielder Cedric Mullins and corner outfielder Ramon Laureano are all in their final guaranteed seasons in Baltimore. (Laureano does have a reasonable $6.5MM club option for 2026). Catcher Gary Sanchez is also on a one-year deal, although he’s likely out until September due to a sprained posterior cruciate ligament in his right knee.

On the pitching side of things, starters Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano are all free agents at season’s end, as are relievers Gregory Soto and Seranthony Dominguez. Right-hander Andrew Kittredge, like Laureano, is on a one-year deal with a club option for the 2026 season. His is valued at $9MM.

O’Hearn, earning $8MM this season, is hitting .282/.378/.458 with a dozen homers. He’d be one of the best rental bats on the market. Mullins is earning $8.725MM and hitting just .218/.300/.4o5 with 13 homers and 14 steals, but he’s one of very few center field options who could be available. The resurgent Laureano is having a career-best year at the plate, hitting .276/.340/.498 through 247 plate appearances while earning just a $4MM salary.

Eflin has been out for nearly a month due to a back injury, which presumably contributed to him surrendering 17 runs in his final nine innings before being placed on the injured list. That ugly stretch ballooned his ERA all the way to 5.95, but he had a 4.08 mark prior to that stretch and is coming off a 2023-24 run in which he tossed 343 innings with a 3.54 ERA and terrific strikeout/walk rates. He’s making $18MM this season. Eflin has posted a 1.50 ERA in three minor league rehab starts, and he told Jake Rill of MLB.com yesterday that he feels like he’s ready to rejoin the rotation.

Morton’s struggles earlier this season were in many ways emblematic of the team’s struggles as a whole. He’s righted the ship after being dropped to the bullpen for a few weeks, though. While the 41-year-old righty is still sporting a grisly 5.58 ERA, he has a 3.47 mark in his past 47 innings. Morton was trounced for seven runs in his most recent outing versus Tampa Bay, but he’d pitched 51 2/3 innings of 2.61 ERA ball prior to that. Even with the ugly last start, he looks largely back on track, though his $15MM salary is another impediment.

Sugano, 35, is in his first big league season. A longtime star in Japan’s NPB, his year has been the inverse of Morton’s: a terrific start followed by an extended rough patch. Sugano carried a 3.04 ERA into June despite possessing one of the lowest strikeout rates in the sport (14.2%), but his lack of missed bats has caught up to him. He has a 7.94 ERA and has been torched for seven home runs over his past six starts (28 1/3 innings). He’s on a $13MM salary.

The left-handed Soto and right-handed Dominguez both miss plenty of bats and have shaky command, although Soto has his walk rate down to a more passable 10.1% this year. Both average better than 97 mph on their heaters, and their ERAs (3.67 for Soto, 3.72 for Dominguez) are nearly identical. Fielding-independent metrics grade them similarly as well, pegging them both in the mid-3.00s. Soto is making $5.35MM to Dominguez’s $8MM. The 35-year-old Kittredge missed the first two months of the season due to a knee procedure he required during spring training but has been solid since returning: 3.86 ERA, 22.9% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate.

It’s not clear from Elias’ comments whether the Orioles will at least entertain offers on players controlled beyond the current season. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported last week that Elias has at least heard out other teams who’ve called on lefty Trevor Rogers and closer Felix Bautista, but that could be mere due diligence. Bautista, controlled two more seasons via arbitration, would be a particular shock if moved. The Dodgers are among the teams who’ve called, but a deal feels decidedly unlikely.

The O’s have some buy-low bats, but it’s hard to imagine anyone taking on even a portion of O’Neill’s contract when he’s signed through 2027 and hitting just .182/.270/.327. Ryan Mountcastle is an interesting buy-low option, but he hit just .246/.280/.348 before a hamstring tear sent him to the 60-day IL. He’ll begin a rehab assignment soon and could be a non-tender candidate with a poor finish, so perhaps there’s more willingness to listen there. Baltimore’s core seems unlikely to be available in any capacity, however. It’d be a true stunner if any of Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser or Jackson Holliday wound up being seriously discussed.

Latest On Mariners’ Deadline Approach

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The Mariners are reportedly seeking corner infield and bullpen help as the deadline approaches, and MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer reported recently that ownership has signaled it will approve a payroll increase to facilitate such transactions. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times hears similarly, writing that Mariners ownership will authorize increased spending for the front office to add to the roster while ticking through some potential options.

Both Ryan O’Hearn of the Orioles and Josh Naylor of the D-backs are viewed as likely trade candidates over the next month. Both would fit the Mariners nicely at first base, allowing Luke Raley to spend more time in the outfield, where he’s more comfortable than at first base. However, early asking prices from both Baltimore and Arizona are quite high, per Jude.

O’Hearn has repeatedly elevated his game in recent seasons and now stands as one of the most productive hitters in the American League. He’s currently sitting on a .295/.383/.471 batting line with 11 homers, 10 doubles, an 11% walk rate and just a 16.3% strikeout rate through 282 plate appearances. He had a tough month in June, but since being traded from Kansas City to Baltimore in the 2022-23 offseason, O’Hearn has proven himself to be a credible middle-of-the-order bat. He hasn’t quite sustained last year’s enormous gains in contact rate, but he’s chasing off the plate at a career-low rate, walking more and showing a bit more power than he did in 2024.

Naylor offers a similar, albeit not identical skill set. Last year’s career-high 31 homers are far more than O’Hearn has ever produced, though some of that is a simple function of playing time. Naylor logged 633 plate appearances in 2024 (a career-high); O’Hearn has never topped last year’s 494 trips to the plate. Both have above-average power with far better contact skills than the prototypical first baseman/designated hitter. Naylor has fanned only 13% of the time he’s come to the plate in 2025. His 8% walk rate is a bit below average, but his overall .304/.359/.474 slash is terrific.

Looking strictly at 2025, O’Hearn has been a bit more impactful in the batter’s box, but the pair’s last three seasons are virtually identical. Naylor has slashed .279/.340/.472 in 1452 plate appearances, while O’Hearn has turned in a .280/.342/.455 line in 1144 plate appearances. They’ve both walked in 8% of their plate appearances. On a rate basis, Naylor has shown a slight bit more power (.193 ISO to .175), but the difference is minimal. The two are compensated similarly, but Naylor is paid a bit more: $10.9MM to O’Hearn’s $8MM. Both are free agents at season’s end.

In a more interesting but also far less plausible scenario, Jude further reports that the Mariners would have interest if the Red Sox were to make Alex Bregman available. That perhaps speaks to ownership’s willingness to add to the payroll, although presumably, the M’s would be looking for the Sox to at least help with some of Bregman’s heavily deferred $40MM annual salary.

The idea of a Bregman trade is interesting in theory but hard to envision in practice. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are rarely traded, and the massive scale of Bregman’s annual salary only further muddies his candidacy.

In broad terms, it’s difficult for two clubs to line up on prospect compensation for a player with multiple years remaining on his contract but the ability to opt back into free agency at season’s end. The acquiring team generally views that player as a rental — typically an expensive one, salary-wise. In a best-case scenario, that player will produce for two-plus months and then head back to free agency. In a worst-case scenario, he’ll suffer a major injury or see his performance tank, only to forgo the opt-out chance and stick the new club with an unwanted additional year (or years) of the contract in question. The acquiring team will understandably try to price that downside into the prospect return, making it difficult for the two parties to align.

On top of the difficulties surrounding Bregman’s salary and opt-out provision, he’s also been away from the field for more than a month. The Red Sox placed Bregman on the 10-day injured list with a strained quadriceps back on May 24. It was clear at the time that he was facing a lengthy absence. Bregman is inching closer to a return and could be back prior to the All-Star break, but an injury absence of nearly two months and a return only about two weeks prior to the trade deadline creates some risk (to say nothing of the potential for Bregman to struggle upon his return, which would only raise further questions).

Prior to his injury, Bregman was enjoying one of the finest starts of his entire career. He’s played 51 games and taken 226 plate appearances, turning in a stout .299/.385/.553 batting line with 11 homers and 17 doubles. His 9.7% walk rate is up three percentage points over last year’s career-low mark. Bregman was also striking out at a career-high 18.6% rate, but that’s still several points shy of league-average and the uptick in swing-and-miss was accompanied by major gains in batted-ball quality. The 31-year-old’s 92 mph average exit velocity is vastly higher than the 88.8 mph career mark he carried into the season. Ditto his 10.3% barrel rate (career 5.7% prior to ’25) and 48.1% hard-hit rate (career 37.7% prior to ’25).

Bregman is signed through 2027 on a three-year, $120MM contract. Deferrals bring the present-day annual value down closer to a reported $29MM. He can opt out of the contract both at the end of the current season and after the 2026 season but has spoken openly about his interest in signing a long-term extension that’d keep him in Boston more permanently. That’s not exactly a surprise for a player who entered last offseason seeking a long-term deal worth $200MM or more and wound up pivoting to an opt-out-laden, short-term deal with a lofty AAV once that long-term pact didn’t materialize, however.

Ultimately, while it’s fun to dream on the notion of a major trade involving someone of Bregman’s caliber, the specifics surrounding his contract and health — to say nothing of Boston’s uncertain buy/sell status four weeks out from the deadline — render it more a theoretical discussion than a genuine possibility at this stage.

The Mariners entered the 2025 season with a $146MM payroll — third-highest in franchise history. They’ve already added to that ledger with a surprising May claim of outfielder Leody Taveras, which didn’t pan out as hoped. That claim already showed a willingness from ownership to spend a bit more, however, and it bears mentioning that M’s ownership also green-lit payroll hikes for both the 2024 acquisition of Randy Arozarena and the 2022 acquisition of Luis Castillo (as well as his subsequent extension).

Mariners Looking For Corner Infield Bats; Ownership Willing To Bump Payroll

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The Mariners are currently 41-38 and in possession of the final American League Wild Card spot, putting them in position to add at the deadline. Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports that the club is looking to add an impact bat at a corner infield spot, though he adds that they could also just get the best bat available and worry about the positioning later. An extra leverage arm for the bullpen is another reported target. Kramer also reports that “ownership will green light increased spending” at this year’s deadline.

The note about the payroll is quite relevant. Throughout the offseason, reporting indicated that the club had about $15MM of spending capacity for upgrading the roster. The M’s then spent a combined $11.25MM on signing Jorge Polanco and Donovan Solano. In early May, they claimed Leody Taveras off waivers from the Rangers, taking on the roughly $3.7MM he had left to be paid out on this year’s salary. The M’s later outrighted Taveras to Triple-A.

Given that the M’s had seemingly spent their budget, it would have been fair to wonder about their ability to make deadline additions. While it’s unclear exactly how much increased spending ownership is willing to approve, any extra pocket money should help the front office pursue external additions.

As for the specific targets, they are not surprising, as the M’s have question marks at both infield corners. Ben Williamson has received the lion’s share of playing time at third base this year and has been solid with the glove, but has hit just .255/.291/.311 for a 77 wRC+. At first base, Rowdy Tellez was the regular there before his subpar bat got him bumped off the roster. He was designated for assignment last week and put on release waivers today.

Solano is now getting most of the playing time at first. He’s not having a great season overall but has been heating up after a dreadful start. He was hitting .131/.156/.148 through May 17th but has a massive .420/.463/.640 line since then. That latter line is a small sample of just 54 plate appearances and inflated by an unsustainable .474 batting average on balls in play but there’s no harm in riding the hot hand in the short term. He also slashed .294/.353/.413 for a 112 wRC+ from 2019 to 2024, so he has a track record of strong offense.

Considering that he’s 37 years old and slumped early in the year, it’s understandable that the M’s may not want to be totally reliant on him. A lot of his damage has also come against lefties in recent years, so they could consider a platoon, though he has reverse splits in this year’s small sample of work.

As for specific targets, Kramer relays that the Mariners have considered a reunion with old friend Eugenio Suárez, currently of the Diamondbacks. Suárez played for Seattle in 2022 and 2023, hitting a bunch of home runs but also striking out a lot. The M’s made a concerted effort to reimagine their offense with fewer punchouts and traded him to Arizona ahead of the 2024 season.

With the Snakes, Suárez got out to a rough start but has been one of the best hitters in baseball for about the past year. He had a .216/.302/.366 line and 87 wRC+ in the first half of 2024 but then exploded for a .307/.341/.602 showing and 153 wRC+ in the second half. Here in 2025, he already has 25 home runs, a .251/.323/.569 line and a 141 wRC+. He’s also been striking out less in the process. He struck out more than 30% of the time as a Mariner but dropped that rate to 27.5% last year and is down to 25.7% so far this year.

His defense isn’t as strong as Williamson’s but he would obviously provide a huge boost to the lineup from the third base spot. Suárez is making a notable salary of $15MM this year, which would leave about $5MM left to be paid out as of the deadline. As mentioned, it’s unknown how much wiggle room the M’s will have to take on money.

It’s possible the Diamondbacks would be willing to eat some of the money but it’s also not entirely clear if they want to make Suárez available at all. Despite a rash of injuries, they are currently 41-39 and just three games out of a playoff spot in the National League. If they fall back in the next few weeks, the possibility of a Suárez trade should increase.

There’s also an argument for Arizona to trade Suárez even in a win-now move. They have lost several arms to injury and could flip him for help on the pitching staff, with Jordan Lawlar then taking over at third. However, there is risk in that path. Lawlar is a top prospect and keeps hitting in the minors but hasn’t yet taken advantage of his major league chances.

Kramer also mentions Arizona first baseman Josh Naylor, noting that he had been linked to the M’s prior to being traded from Cleveland to Arizona in the offseason. Naylor, like Suárez, is an impending free agent. He is making $10.9MM this year while slashing .307/.363/.479 for a 132 wRC+.

Kramer also mentions some other players as possible fits, including Jarren Duran of the Red Sox as well as Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins and Félix Bautista of the Orioles, though those appear to be more speculative suggestions. He also throws out Isiah Kiner-Falefa of the Pirates and Jesús Sánchez of the Marlins as other possibilities.

Duran and Mullins are outfielders but, as mentioned, the Mariners might just grab the best bat they can and figure out the defense later. Luke Raley is currently spending most of his time in the outfield corners but could perhaps spend more time at first base if the M’s added an outfielder.

O’Hearn and Mullins are both impending free agents on a struggling Baltimore club, so they seem likely to be moved. O’Hearn is having a terrific year, with a .301/.384/.485 line and 149 wRC+. His $8MM salary is not nothing but it’s barely half of what Suárez is making. Mullins was hot to start the year but has gone cold lately. He had a .278/.412/.515 line and 168 wRC+ at the end of April but has since put up a line of .167/.201/.348 for a wRC+ of 50. He is making $8.725MM this year.

Duran is still controllable for three years after this one but the Sox have a crowded long-term outfield mix that also includes Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony, Masataka Yoshida and Jhostynxon Garcia. Perhaps the Sox would consider making Duran available as a way to preemptively clear out that logjam while simultaneously adding talent somewhere else. They are currently 40-42 and 2.5 games back of a Wild Card spot.

As for the bullpen, all contenders generally look for upgrades at the deadline. Bautista should be highly attractive if the O’s are willing to make him available but it’s unclear if they would. Unlike Mullins and O’Hearn, he can be retained for two more seasons beyond this one. But given the general volatility of relievers, Baltimore might think about cashing him in during a down year for the club overall.

After missing the 2024 due to Tommy John surgery recovery, Bautista’s control has been a problem, with a 15% walk rate. But he’s still been effective overall, with a 2.60 earned run average and 33.6% strikeout rate. It’s possible he is reining in his command as the season goes along as he has dropped that walk rate to 9.4% in June.

Kiner-Falefa is a glove-first utility guy, hitting .273/.319/.346 this year for the Bucs, which translates to a wRC+ of 85. He is making $7.5MM this season but the Blue Jays are on the hook for part of that as part of the trade that sent him to Pittsburgh at last year’s deadline. Sánchez has generally been a league average hitter for the Marlins. He is in his sixth big league season and has a .240/.309/.425 line and 99 wRC+. He is making $4.5MM this year and can be controlled for two more seasons via arbitration.

There are many possibilities for Seattle, which should make for a very interesting deadline. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has a reputation as being one of the most trade-happy executives in the sport and the Mariners have one of the best farm systems. Reportedly, they wanted to deal prospects for big leaguers during the offseason but found few clubs willing to make that kind of pact since so many teams came into the year hoping to contend. As the season goes along and some clubs fall back in the standings, they might be more willing to take some of those prospects off the Mariners’ hands.

Photo courtesy of Joe Nicholson, Imagn Images.

The Orioles’ Pair Of Rental Bats

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The Orioles dropped both games of a doubleheader against Minnesota yesterday, falling 11 games under .500. They kept the bad times rolling with another loss this afternoon, getting to 12 games under. It’s the nadir of their season so far, one from which they’ll have a difficult time coming back.

As of last week, general manager Mike Elias wasn’t interested in contemplating the possibility that they’ll be deadline sellers. “We’ve got a record that’s not reflective of who we believe our team is, that I don’t think anyone thought our team was, and we’re digging a hole out of the standings right now because of that,” the GM told Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of The New York Post on their podcast last Tuesday. “Hopefully, we claw back a lot of real estate in the standings and we get back in the mode that we fully expected to be. That is my focus right now. If it somehow evolves otherwise, I’ll address it then.”

The team has dropped six of eight games since those comments. Even with Zach Eflin returning from the injured list over the weekend, the starting rotation looks untenable. Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg face uncertain timelines to make it back from their own IL stints. The odds are very much not in their favor. FanGraphs has the O’s playoff chances down to a season-low 4.4%. The front office certainly didn’t anticipate being deadline sellers, but it’s increasingly difficult to see them avoiding that fate.

It would be surprising if the Orioles dealt any controllable core pieces like Westburg, Adley Rutschman or Jackson Holliday. It’d be tough to find a taker on Tyler O’Neill given his annual $16.5MM salaries and opt-out clause. Tomoyuki Sugano has had solid results in his first big league season, but he probably has modest trade value on a $13MM salary given his below-average velocity and 14.2% strikeout rate.

That leaves a pair of rental bats as Baltimore’s top trade candidates: Ryan O’Hearn and Cedric Mullins. The former has systematically improved over his two and a half seasons at Camden Yards. O’Hearn was a career .219/.293/.390 hitter when the Orioles acquired him from the Royals over the 2022-23 offseason. He turned in what was then a personal-best .289/.322/.480 slash during his first season in Baltimore. Last year’s batting line seems superficially like a step back — he hit .264/.334/.427 in 494 plate appearances — but it came with a dramatically superior strikeout and walk profile than he showed in 2023.

O’Hearn has maintained those impressive plate discipline metrics while hitting for more power early this year. He carries a .287/.374/.519 mark with seven longballs across 123 plate appearances. O’Hearn isn’t chasing pitches outside the strike zone. His 15.4% strikeout rate is well below the 22.1% league average. He’s making hard contact (a 95+ MPH exit velocity) on half his batted balls, well up from last season’s 40% clip.

The rate stats are slightly inflated by the O’s tendency to shield O’Hearn from unfavorable platoon matchups. They’ve mostly kept him away from left-handed pitching, giving him just 94 plate appearances against southpaws over the past three seasons. He’s more of a strong-side platoon bat than a true everyday player, but O’Hearn is thriving in that role. He is up to a .280/.339/.465 slash in nearly 900 plate appearances against righty pitching as a member of the Orioles.

That kind of production is a bargain for a player making an $8MM salary. O’Hearn will be a first-time free agent next year, as he enters his age-32 season. It’s tough to see the Orioles making him a qualifying offer that’d likely be north of $21MM. He has a good shot at a multi-year contract, but the O’s would probably be better served letting him walk to open first base/DH playing time for Coby Mayo. That all points to a trade.

Baltimore won’t pull the trigger on that kind of move two and a half months from the deadline, but he seems likely to be available in July. The Giants and Red Sox are the most obvious potential suitors for a rental first baseman. Boston will be without Triston Casas all season. San Francisco has gotten nothing out of LaMonte Wade Jr. this year. They won’t want to block top prospect Bryce Eldridge in 2026 but should make a short-term add at the position. The Rangers and Mariners would also make sense as landing spots.

The Orioles would need a stronger return on Mullins, who may end up being one of the best all-around position players available. The lefty-hitting center fielder takes a .230/.335/.446 line with eight homers into today’s game against Minnesota. Most of that production came early in the season. Mullins carried a .278/.412/.515 slash through the end of April. He’s hitting .119/.119/.286 thus far in May. He’s clearly amidst a skid at the plate, but he still ranks among the sport’s most productive center fielders overall. He is tied for fourth at the position in homers and ranks eighth in on-base percentage (minimum 100 plate appearances).

Even if Mullins was punching above his weight through the season’s first few weeks, he’s a quality player. He has been an average or better hitter in five consecutive seasons. He has topped 30 stolen bases in three of the last four years. The public metrics are split on his glove — he rates more highly by Statcast’s Outs Above Average than he does in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved — but there’s no doubt that he can play center field. There’s a dearth of talent at the position on the trade market, especially if Luis Robert Jr. continues to underperform offensively.

Mullins is making $8.725MM in his final season of arbitration control. There’s a decent chance the O’s would make him the qualifying offer if he’s not traded, but a multiple-prospect package could be superior to one compensatory draft pick. The Guardians, Phillies, Mets, Rangers and A’s are just a handful of contenders that could look for an upgrade in center field.

Respective images courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas and Gregory Fisher, Imagn Images

Orioles Exercise Club Options On Ryan O’Hearn, Cionel Perez

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The Orioles have picked up their $2.2MM club option on the services of left-hander Cionel Perez for the 2025 season, according to Francys Romero. Baltimore would’ve still had Perez under team control for 2025 via arbitration even if the option had been declined. They’ve also picked up their $8MM option on the services of first baseman Ryan O’Hearn, as first reported by Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Both will return to the club in 2025.

Whether or not the Orioles would pick up Perez’s option appeared to be a close call given that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a $2.1MM salary for the left-hander in his penultimate trip through arbitration. That comes in slightly lower than the figure Perez will now earn in 2025. It’s possible Baltimore’s own internal view of Perez’s likely arbitration salary came in a touch higher than MLBTR’s, although the Orioles’ decision may be as simple as not wanting to decline the option and risk an arbitration hearing with the southpaw over just $100K.

That there was any sort of decision to be made regarding the option would’ve registered as something of a surprise headed into the 2024 season. Entering this year, Perez had been among the club’s very best relievers over his two years in Baltimore. From 2022 to ’23, Perez dominated to the tune of a 2.43 ERA in 111 innings of work. That fantastic ERA was somewhat belied by higher 3.30 FIP thanks to Perez’s lackluster strikeout (20.6%) and walk (10%) rates over the past two years, but the lefty made up for that by generating grounders at an excellent 56.2% rate.

Unfortunately, Perez took a major step backwards in 2024 when it came to run prevention as his ERA ballooned to 4.53. With that being said, his peripherals remained remarkably similar to his previous successful seasons with the Orioles. His 11.8% walk rate was elevated and his 19.3% strikeout rate was just a tick lower than those previous figures, but the lefty maintained a strong 55.8% groundball rate and wound up with a 3.30 FIP that was identical to his average over the prior two seasons. Of course, it’s worth noting that Perez’s FIP is somewhat deflated by the fact that Perez managed to give up zero home runs during the 2024 campaign. While the lefty has typically been excellent at limiting hard contact throughout his career, it’s worth noting that his homerless season came in spite of a nearly doubled barrel rate relative to 2023.

Overall, Perez seems likely to remain with the Orioles as a solid lefty relief option, though perhaps not one they’ll be interested in offering high leverage duties to until and unless he can bring his strikeout and walk ratios closer to the 23.5% and 9% figures he flashed during his dominant 2022 campaign. The Orioles notably declined their club option on fellow lefty Danny Coulombe today, making Perez all the more valuable as he joins Keegan Akin and Gregory Soto as lefty options in 2025.

Turning to O’Hearn, the decision to pick his option up doesn’t register as much of a surprise given his excellent performance since first donning an Orioles uniform. The 31-year-old just wrapped up his second season with Baltimore and carries an overall slash line of .275/.329/.450 (119 wRC+), though even that slash line may be selling his growth with the club short as he massively improved his plate discipline in 2024. After striking out at a 22.3% clip and walking just 4.1% of the time in 2023, this year O’Hearn took free passes at an excellent 9.3% clip while striking out just 14% of the time. A small step back in the power department meant his wRC+ was largely unchanged from the year prior, but underlying metrics such as xwOBA viewed O’Hearn’s work in 2024 as a substantial improvement over his first season with the club.

As impressive as O’Hearn’s evolution in Baltimore has been, there do remain questions about his fit on the club’s roster entering next year. While Anthony Santander’s likely departure in free agency will open up some playing time in the corner/DH mix, the Orioles have already at times struggled to juggle playing time for O’Hearn and fellow first baseman Ryan Mountcastle when both are healthy in previous seasons. Looking ahead to 2025, they’ll be searching for ways to include Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad in the lineup more regularly, and either player could take up the lion’s share of playing time at DH with Mayo in particular even standing as a possible inclusion in the club’s first base mix as well. A trade of Mountcastle, one of the prospects, or even O’Hearn himself could help to clear up the clubs log jam at the position, and it would hardly be a surprise if the club decided to do so in order to upgrade a rotation facing plenty of questions headed into 2025 following the departure of Corbin Burnes and elbow surgery that will sideline Kyle Bradish for the start of next season.

What Will The Orioles Outfield Look Like In 2025?

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The Orioles ran out the same three outfielders each Opening Day between 2021 and ’24: Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays. And in each year from 2020-23, Mullins, Santander, and Hays were Baltimore’s three primary outfielders. This past season, however, Colton Cowser broke out with a phenomenal rookie campaign, cementing his position in the outfield at Camden Yards for years to come. Facing a logjam in the lineup, the Orioles dealt Hays to the Phillies ahead of the trade deadline, officially splitting up the Mullins/Santander/Hays triumvirate. Santander could be next to leave; after the conclusion of the World Series, he will become a free agent. Thus, for the first time in a long time, the Orioles’ outfield could look quite different on Opening Day 2025.

There is no doubt that Cowser will have a job in the Orioles’ outfield next season. Not only did he hit 24 home runs with a 120 wRC+ in 2024, but he did so while playing strong defense. The 24-year-old compiled 11 OAA and 3 DRS over 809 2/3 innings in left field, 310 innings in center, and 73 innings in right. He made just one error all year. Cowser is under team control through at least the 2029 season, and he will not be eligible for arbitration until at least 2027.

Mullins should be a lock for the 2025 outfield as well, although the Orioles will have to tender him a contract as he enters his final year of arbitration eligibility. Matt Swartz’s model estimates Mullins would earn approximately $8.7MM next year, a $2.375MM raise from his $6.325MM salary this season. That’s a bargain for a player like Mullins, even with his 2021 All-Star campaign getting smaller and smaller in the rearview mirror. He has been roughly league-average at the plate over the past two seasons  (102 wRC+) while providing plenty of value on the bases (51-for-60 in stolen base attempts) and playing a premium defensive position. Different metrics disagree about his talents in center field, but ultimately, the versions of WAR at both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference agree he has been a valuable contributor. From 2023-24, Mullins compiled 4.2 fWAR and 5.3 bWAR. There’s a chance the Orioles would consider moving Mullins to a corner and giving Cowser the center field job; including college and the minors, Cowser has more experience in center field than any other position. Mullins and his league-average bat would be less valuable in a corner spot, but a $8.7MM salary would still be a team-friendly price for his services.

As for the final spot in the outfield, plenty of fans would love to see Santander back next season (and for several more to come), but it’s unclear how intently the Orioles will pursue the All-Star slugger in free agency. They will surely make him the qualifying offer, and he just as will surely decline. He is likely seeking a multi-year deal worth at least $20MM per season. General manager Mile Elias is hoping to increase payroll this winter in his first full offseason working under new owner David Rubenstein, but it’s unclear how much money he’ll have to work with. More to the point, Elias might prfer to spend the majority of his resources improving a pitching staff that finished 14th in MLB in ERA and 10th in FanGraphs WAR rather than an offense that finished fourth in runs scored and third in wRC+. Santander will be a big loss for the offense, but ace Corbin Burnes, another impending free agent, will be an even bigger departure for Elias to address. With all that said, the Orioles might stick with their internal options to replace Santander in 2025.

Baltimore would love for 25-year-old Heston Kjerstad to step up and fill that role. The lefty batter put up ludicrous numbers in the minors this past season, batting .300 with a .998 OPS and 152 wRC+ in 56 games at Triple-A. His big league numbers (.745 OPS, 116 wRC+ in 39 games) weren’t bad, especially not for a rookie, but some of the underlying metrics suggest he’s due for regression (.301 xwOBA compared to a .327 wOBA), and his 28.9% strikeout rate was concerningly high for a hitter who wasn’t showing off plus power or plate discipline. Moreover, his outfield defense wasn’t particularly impressive in a small sample size (-1 DRS, -1 FRV). Kjerstad has the tools to be a terrific player, but he’ll to take a step forward at the plate if he’s going to provide above-average value as a defensively-limited corner outfielder.

Another option to play some corner outfield for the Orioles next year could be Coby Mayo, who is currently the team’s top prospect according to Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Throughout his brief professional career, Mayo has mostly played third base. Aside from his strong arm, however, he has never graded out as a top-notch defender at the hot corner. So, with Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg already entrenched in the Orioles’ infield and Jackson Holliday not going anywhere, Mayo’s future might need to be somewhere else. He has experience playing first base as well, and that could be his long-term position. But considering his terrific throwing arm, it makes sense that he would give the outfield a try. To that point, Elias recently suggested right field could be an option for the 22-year-old, though he made it clear the organization still views him as an infielder, and primarily a first baseman, going forward (per Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball).

Two more internal options to keep in mind are prospects Dylan Beavers and Enrique Bradfield Jr. Beavers, 23, is the team’s No. 5 prospect according to FanGraphs, No. 6 according to MLB Pipeline, and No. 7 according to Baseball America. He hit well enough at Double-A in 2024 (15 HR, 118 wRC+ in 119 games) to earn a brief promotion to Triple-A at the end of the season. He’s also a plus runner with the potential to be a capable big league center fielder. Bradfield, 22, is a few months younger and a little further away from the majors; he moved up from High-A to Double-A this past August. However, most sources agree he is the slightly more promising prospect. FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline have him at No. 4, while Baseball America has him at No. 6. He boasts 80-grade speed and has the skills to be an elite defensive center fielder. As for his bat, he has little power to speak of, so he’ll need to prove he can maintain his impressive bat-to-ball skills against tougher competition. Neither Beavers nor Bradfield needs protection from the Rule 5 draft this offseason, and neither is a likely candidate to make the Opening Day roster out of camp. However, their relative proximity to the majors could be a reason why the Orioles avoid signing a free agent outfielder to a multi-year deal.

Finally, the Orioles will have to decide whether or not to pick up Ryan O’Hearn’s $8MM club option for 2025. O’Hearn is primarily a first baseman and DH, but he played 27 games in the outfield last season. The 31-year-old slashed .264/.334/.427 with 15 home runs and a 119 wRC+ in 2024, good for 1.7 fWAR. If he can repeat that performance next season, an $8MM salary would be more than fair, but with Kjerstad and Mayo in need of playing time, the Orioles might prefer to spend that $8MM elsewhere.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Ryan O’Hearn Leveled Up … Again

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It’s been just shy of a year since MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wrote, “The Orioles may have found the lefty bat they wanted” when writing about Ryan O’Hearn’s then-nascent breakout in Baltimore. Acquired from the Royals in exchange for cash on the heels of a DFA, O’Hearn was subsequently designated for assignment by the Orioles as well before being passed through waivers unclaimed and sent outright to Triple-A Norfolk.

It was the sort of ostensible unremarkable trade that is made hundreds of times over the course of a calendar year and quickly forgotten — until it wasn’t. As most are aware — certainly every Orioles fan — O’Hearn indeed emerged as the left-handed bat Baltimore had sought. At the time of Darragh’s piece last year, O’Hearn was slashing .308/.348/.542 with six home runs in 115 plate appearances. It wasn’t a big sample and he wasn’t walking much (5.2%), but O’Hearn’s batted-ball data supported much of that early flurry. He finished the year in strong fashion, seeing regular playing time against right-handed pitching and ending the year with a stout .289/.322/.480 slash — 18% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+.

For a player who’d hit .211/.282/.351 with a 27% strikeout rate over the four prior seasons in Kansas City (2019-22) before being designated for assignment, last season was a stunning breakout. The Orioles would’ve been thrilled just to have that one year, but O’Hearn came to Baltimore with four-plus years of playing time, making him controllable through the 2024 season. It was a no-brainer to tender him a contract and go through the arbitration process with him, and even if he reverted back to his 2019-22 form or regressed some at the plate, the entire gambit of acquiring him would’ve been well worth it based on 2023 alone.

O’Hearn, however, hasn’t reverted to his 2019-22 form. He hasn’t regressed closer to league-average. He hasn’t maintained the status quo and or even taken just a small step forward. Rather, he’s taken his game to an entirely new level, not just in terms of his raw run-production but also his approach at the plate.

In 189 plate appearances this season — all but 11 coming against right-handed pitching, it should be noted — O’Hearn is batting .287/.384/.489. He’s been 38% better than league-average, per wRC+. He’s already belted nine homers, six doubles and a triple.

He’s also struck out 19 times. In 189 plate appearances. Lest you think that was a typo, let’s write it out: nineteen times.

O’Hearn, who entered the 2024 season with a lifetime 25.6% strikeout rate in the big leagues, has at 30 years old simply become allergic to strikeouts. He’s also nearly doubled his walk rate from last year’s 4.1% to 7.9%. That feat isn’t as eye-popping on its own, given O’Hearn’s penchant for drawing free passes earlier in his career (11.5% from 2018-20), but it does serve to further underscore the evolution of his approach at the plate.

By measure of Statcast, O’Hearn chased 32% of pitches off the plate in 2023. This year, that number is down to 26.5%. He’s making contact on balls out of the strike zone at a career-best 64.4% clip, and his ability to connect on pitches within the strike zone has also ticked up. This year’s 90.6% mark is a career-best and sits more than five percentage points north of the 85.3% league average.

The uptick in volume of contact has come at the expense of some of his quality of contact, but that’s not to say O’Hearn is getting by with a series of well-placed bloops and weak grounders. His 90.4 mph average exit velocity and 41.9% hard-hit rate are both strong — they’re just down from last year’s respective marks of 91.9 mph and 51.5%. He’s in the 72nd and 75th percentile of MLB players in terms of exit velo and hard-hit rate, plus the 85th percentile of hitters in terms of whiff rate. Even with less life on his average batted ball, the increased frequency of contact leads Statcast to project O’Hearn in the 94th percentile or better in terms of his expected batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA.

It bears repeating that some of the reasoning for both his quality of contact and his gaudy expected stats is that O’Hearn is shielded nearly entirely from left-on-left matchups. His career performance in such situations (.168/.236/.286) rather emphatically shows that he’s benefited from Baltimore’s aggressive platooning. That somewhat specialized role doesn’t detract from his usefulness however, and when coupled with the nonexistent cost of acquisition, O’Hearn continues to cement himself as one of the current front office regime’s savviest acquisitions.

Speaking of savvy, any discussion of O’Hearn’s production should also touch on the slugger’s contract status. As noted before, O’Hearn came to Baltimore with two seasons of club control remaining. However, the two parties weren’t able to agree on a middle ground in arbitration prior to exchanging figures. O’Hearn filed for a $3.8MM salary to the Orioles’ $3.2MM figure. The two parties ultimately avoided a hearing at the eleventh hour, agreeing to a $3.5MM salary for the 2024 season — the midpoint between their submitted figures — as well as a club option for the 2025 campaign.

That would’ve been O’Hearn’s first free-agent season, but the O’s now have control over next year at a $7.5MM price point. O’Hearn would boost that option value by $500K upon appearing in 120 and 150 games. The latter of those two numbers won’t happen. O’Hearn has already been absent from 14 Orioles games. He’s on pace to appear in 127 games, however, making the first of those $500K escalators still not only attainable but likely.

The club option was notable at the time but hardly a lock to be exercised or even emerge as a borderline decision. But, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco quipped to me when chatting about O’Hearn’s newfound contact skills, few realized he was going to “turn into Luis Arraez with power.” That’s a bit of an overstatement of course — Arraez has fanned at a ridiculous 5.7% clip since Opening Day 2023 — but O’Hearn currently possesses the seventh-lowest strikeout rate of the 248 hitters with at least 150 plate appearances this season. Of the 30 players in that set who have a strikeout rate of 15% or lower, the only one hitting for more power than O’Hearn (by measure of ISO) is Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez. Securing what now looks to be a wildly affordable club option for a third season in order to avoid a hearing over a $600K difference in figures looks like a raucous bargain for the Orioles.

O’Hearn may be a limited player by virtue of his platoon splits and lackluster defensive ratings both in the outfield corners and at first base, but he’s developed one of the most unique skill sets in the game and made himself a vital member of one of MLB’s top offenses. On two different occasions in the 2022-23 offseason, any club could’ve acquired O’Hearn for nothing more than cash or a waiver claim.

The Orioles clearly didn’t expect this level of outcome — they wouldn’t have designated him for assignment if they did — but they deserve credit for seeing value where others didn’t. Much of the focus on Baltimore’s success is rightly placed on young core of players either drafted by the O’s (Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, etc.) or acquired via trade (Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Cade Povich), but hitting the jackpot on a small-scale pickup like O’Hearn is the sort of move that can be a separator, providing a high-end complementary player to help take an impressive core to the next level.

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