Trevor Rogers

Marlins’ Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers Drawing Trade Interest

By Steve Adams | November 30, 2023 at 12:59pm CDT

It wouldn’t be an offseason or trade deadline without the annual tradition of rumors regarding the Marlins’ collection of young starting pitchers. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes this morning that Miami has received interest in right-hander Edward Cabrera and lefty Trevor Rogers this winter, though there’s no indication a deal involving either has been seriously discussed.

Miami’s wealth of starting pitching has been the focus of other clubs for several years now, although the extent of that depth is probably overstated now. The Fish traded Pablo Lopez as part of their Luis Arraez acquisition and will be without 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara in 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. Pitching prospect Jake Eder was traded at the deadline to acquire Jake Burger from the White Sox. Fellow prospects Max Meyer (2022 TJS), Dax Fulton (2023 elbow surgery) and Sixto Sanchez (shoulder surgeries in 2021, 2022) have all seen injuries slow their trajectories as well — particularly in the case of Sanchez.

Currently, the Marlins project to trot out a rotation including Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers and ballyhooed young right-hander Eury Perez. There’s no way the Marlins would move Perez, who entered 2023 as arguably the top pitching prospect in the sport and debuted as a 20-year-old with 19 starts of 3.15 ERA ball. Similarly, Rosenthal suggests that Luzardo and Garrett are likely considered off limits. Beyond that top quintet, the Marlins’ top in-house options are 27-year-old Bryan Hoeing and lefty Ryan Weathers, whom they acquired in a buy-low deal from the Padres over the summer.

The extent to which Cabrera or Rogers is available will depend on the strength of offers made by other clubs, as there’s no urgency for Miami to move either pitcher. Rogers, the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up, has three years of team control remaining. Cabrera has five. Rogers has had a pair of disappointing years since a brilliant rookie campaign, pitching to a 5.26 ERA in his past 125 frames (just 18 of which came in an injury-ruined 2023 season). Cabrera has been better but inconsistent while showing worrying command; he’s logged a 3.73 ERA and fanned 26.6% of his opponents in his past 171 1/3 innings but has also issued walks at a 13.7% clip in that time.

Between the greater amount of club control and the better recent track record (both in terms of health and performance), Cabrera has the greater trade value of the pair. He’ll likely be eligible for Super Two status next winter and thus be arbitration-eligible four times rather than three, but Rogers is already into his arb years and projected to earn a modest $1.5MM this coming season, via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

With their past trades and all of the injuries throughout the prospect ranks, the Marlins are no longer as deep as some may believe them to be. It’s still feasible that they could trade someone like Cabrera or Rogers in an effort to acquire help at another area of need like catcher, shortstop or center field (depending on the new front office’s plans for Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s defensive home). It’s a thin free-agent market for bats, after all, and the Marlins likely don’t have extensive financial flexibility anyhow.

That said, if new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix does deal from the rotation to address another need, it’d likely just create a hole on the starting staff that would need to be filled via free agency or a subsequent trade. The Marlins tried this last year when dealing Lopez and signing Johnny Cueto, but the results weren’t at all what the team had hoped, as Cueto posted a 6.02 ERA in 52 1/3 innings.

Marlins Looking To Add Starting Pitcher

By Anthony Franco | July 28, 2023 at 9:37am CDT

The Marlins pulled off one of the bigger moves of deadline season last night, acquiring back-end reliever David Robertson for a pair of promising low minors prospects. It’s the first of what is likely to be multiple additions for a Miami club that currently sits just outside the NL Wild Card picture.

Before the Robertson deal, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported that adding both a starter and a reliever were Miami’s top priorities. They moved quickly on the latter front but figure to explore the rotation market over the coming days.

It’s surprising to see the Fish looking for rotation help at first glance. For a few seasons, Miami has skewed rotation-heavy and been light on offense. As a result, the Marlins dealt Pablo López to Minnesota for Luis Arraez in an effort to balance the roster.

That said, the Marlins’ rotation has been more good than exceptional in 2023. They rank 11th in starting pitching ERA, allowing 4.11 earned runs per nine innings. They’re third in strikeout rate (25.4%), 11th in walks (7.5%) and third in grounder percentage (45.9%). Starting pitching certainly hasn’t been a weakness, but it hasn’t been quite as effective as last year’s group — which ranked eighth in ERA behind a Cy Young performance from Sandy Alcantara.

Some amount of regression was probably inevitable. The López trade subtracted arguably Miami’s second-best starter. The Marlins rearranged their infield, installing Arraez at second base to push Jazz Chisholm to the outfield. They signed Jean Segura to move to third and dealt away Miguel Rojas while moving Joey Wendle to shortstop. All those transactions were designed to add offense — and the Arraez trade in particular has achieved that — but come with the expected effect of reducing the defensive efficiency behind a ground-ball heavy pitching staff.

That’s among the reasons for Alcantara’s step back, although there are myriad factors whenever a pitcher’s ERA jumps more than two runs (from 2.28 to 4.46). They’re obviously not going to displace Alcantara from the rotation, but his relative down season magnifies some of the other challenges Miami has faced.

Trevor Rogers has been on the injured list since the middle of April; a partial tear in his non-throwing shoulder leaves him with an uncertain return timetable. Free agent pickup Johnny Cueto lost a couple months to injury and was knocked around on his minor league rehab stint. Miami broke him in as a reliever before moving him back into the rotation last weekend.

Top prospect Eury Pérez has had a brilliant start to his MLB career, but he’s back in the minors temporarily as the club keeps an eye on his workload. The 20-year-old has already set a personal high with 86 2/3 innings between Double-A and the majors this season. Bryan Hoeing has gotten six starts but allowed a 6.66 ERA in 24 1/3 frames over that stretch. He’s been much better in a multi-inning relief role.

There have also been signs of promise, of course. Jesús Luzardo has taken another step forward and looks like a #2 caliber starter. Braxton Garrett, who opened the season in the minors, has stepped up with a 4.32 ERA and above-average peripherals through 100 innings. Edward Cabrera is missing plenty of bats and racking up grounders, though he’s walking over 14% of opponents and has an ERA approaching 5.00.

Miami has plenty of high-upside arms who are capable of starting a playoff game if they play into October. They don’t need to shop at the top of the rotation market. There’s some sense in adding a stable back-end starter to ease the workload on some of Miami’s younger arms — in effect playing the role the Marlins envisioned from Cueto when they signed him in January.

While rotation help now seems to be the front office’s priority, Ng and her group will also certainly remain on the lookout for ways to add to the lineup. They’ve been loosely linked to Jeimer Candelario and Tim Anderson within the past week. Rosenthal writes that Miami made a run at first baseman Carlos Santana before the Pirates dealt him to Milwaukee. The Marlins should have a few irons in the fire over the next few days as a somewhat surprising entrant into the rotation market.

Marlins Notes: Perez, Cueto, Rogers, Chisholm

By Nick Deeds | June 24, 2023 at 4:33pm CDT

Right-hander Eury Perez has been just about everything the Marlins could have hoped for when they promoted the 20-year-old top prospect to the majors directly from the Double-A level. In eight major league starts this season, Perez has posted a sensational 1.54 ERA in 41 innings of work. While those numbers are already fantastic, Perez has been even more impressive over his last five starts. In that time, he’s allowed a microscopic ERA of just 0.33 while striking out 29 in 27 innings and walking just 7.8% of batters faced. A single solo home run represents the only baserunner to cross home plate against Perez during that period.

With the youngster on such an impressive run of late, one might assume that the Marlins plan to continue riding the wave of Perez’s success as the club attempts to parlay a solid start to the season into a playoff appearance. After all, Miami’s 43-34 record leaves them in second place in their division and firmly in the NL wild card picture alongside the Giants and Dodgers. According to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald, however, the plan might not be that simple. While Mish notes that Perez is expected to make at least two more starts, one tomorrow against the Pirates and the other next weekend against the Braves, he also notes that pumping the brakes on Perez from then until after the All Star break is “something [that’s] under consideration.”

Mish’s report comes on the heels of him noting earlier this month that the Marlins were planning to “slow down” Perez in order to manage his innings and hopefully leave him healthy and available for the end of the 2023 campaign and a potential postseason run. Perez has already thrown 72 innings between Double-A and the majors this season despite the fact that he’s never thrown more than 77 innings in a season during his professional career. With Perez’s arm quickly heading toward uncharted territory, it’s somewhat understandable for Miami to exercise caution with their young phenom, even as the club is in the middle of a surprisingly competitive season.

Should Perez indeed take a seat for a few turns through the rotation, the Marlins will have to find another starter to line up alongside Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, and Bryan Hoeing. Miami’s rotation depth has been tested significantly throughout the season, with each of Edward Cabrera, Johnny Cueto, and Trevor Rogers currently on the injured list. The club has indicated that Cabrera’s stay on the IL is expected to be a brief one, though, and Cueto is also progressing towards a return (as noted by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald) after his third rehab start at the Triple-A level on Thursday.

Rogers, on the other hand, is not expected back any time soon. Per McPherson, the left-hander is dealing with a partial tear in his right lat, an ailment Rogers himself tells reporters is rather rare for left-handed pitchers. On a more optimistic note, Rogers notes that he believes he’ll be able to avoid surgery, and that he’s currently hoping to have more clarity on when he can resume throwing following the All Star break. Rogers, of course, impressed in 2021 with a 2.64 ERA in 133 innings of work en route to the first All Star appearance of his career. The lefty hasn’t measured up to that career year since then, however, with a 5.26 ERA and 4.32 FIP in 27 starts since the start of the 2022 campaign.

McPherson also discussed the timetable for center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s return to action, which manager Skip Schumaker told reporters could come as soon as the club’s upcoming road trip through Boston and Atlanta, which is set to start on Tuesday. It’s been a mixed year for Chisholm so far, as the 25 year old has slashed just .229/.291/.403 coming off an All Star appearance in 2022. That performance is good for a wRC+ of just 90, 10% below league average. On the other hand, the youngster has taken to his new and difficult defensive position admirably despite his lack of experience; his +3 OAA in center field ranks in the 86th percentile of all fielders this season despite Chisholm having played just 39 games.

Marlins Select Archie Bradley

By Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald | June 13, 2023 at 5:54pm CDT

The Marlins made some roster moves today, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. Right-hander Archie Bradley has been selected to the roster, with Huascar Brazobán optioned in a corresponding move. To make room for Bradley on the 40-man roster, lefty Trevor Rogers has been transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Bradley reaches the majors for the first time this year. It’s now nine consecutive seasons for the former top ten pick. He had a strong run of high-leverage relief from 2017-20 with the Diamondbacks and Reds. His results have gone in the wrong direction over the past two seasons. Bradley is coming off a career-worst year with the Angels, tossing 18 2/3 innings of 4.82 ERA ball while missing extended chunks of action with an elbow fracture and a forearm strain.

That down year kept the 30-year-old on the open market until after Opening Day. He signed a minor league contract with Miami in mid-April. He’s since pitched nine games (including one five-inning start) for Triple-A Jacksonville, tossing 18 1/3 frames. While Bradley has allowed 13 runs, only six have been earned. He’s fanned 16 while walking five.

Miami plugs him into a bullpen that has been solid. They’re 15th in ERA (4.17) but fourth in strikeout rate (24.9%) and third in ground-ball percentage (45.5%). That’s played a role in the club’s 17-5 record in one-run contests, which has them seven games above .500 despite a -27 run differential.

Rogers moves to the 60-day IL after sustaining an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. He’s been out since April 20, initially landing on the shelf with a biceps strain in his throwing arm. Rogers made a pair of rehab starts but had a scheduled outing over the weekend scrapped.

The IL transfer doesn’t have much of an impact on Rogers’ eligibility. It backdates to his initial placement, so he’s eligible to return as early as next Wednesday. However, Craig Mish of SportsGrid tweets that he’s not likely to be reinstated when first permissible because of the shoulder discomfort.

NL East Notes: Marlins, Phillies, Mets

By Nick Deeds | June 11, 2023 at 2:34pm CDT

Marlins left-hander Trevor Rogers didn’t make his scheduled rehab start yesterday due to an issue in his non-throwing shoulder, according to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. The club is currently waiting for medical results before making a decision on how to proceed with Rogers, who could be back on the mound in Triple-A as soon as early next week if the impending medical update is encouraging. Rogers has made just four starts for the Marlins this year while battling a biceps strain. In those starts, Rogers posted a solid 4.00 ERA (111 ERA+) with a 4.11 FIP and 19 strikeouts in 18 innings of work, though he did struggle with his command as he hit three batters and walked six in that time.

After Rogers’s setback, the Marlins may be left looking for rotation options in the near future, as Mish indicates that the club is hoping to “slow down” youngster Eury Perez, who has already pitched 60 innings this season between Triple-A and the majors after throwing just 77 innings total last season. The 20-year-old phenom has been excellent in 29 innings in the majors this season, with a sterling 2.17 ERA. That being said, Perez’s 24.8% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate, and unsightly 27.3% groundball rate all leave something to be desired, resulting in a less inspiring 4.34 FIP.

Mish suggests that the Marlins may limit the young right-hander to somewhere between 100 and 115 innings during the 2023 campaign, and the club is hoping to have Perez available later in the season. A natural time to slow Perez down seemed to be on the horizon with Rogers’s pending return, but with the lefty’s timetable less clear, the Marlins may need to look elsewhere to cover for Perez’s starts if they wish to manage his innings headed into the summer.

More from around the NL East…

Phillies fans got positive injury news regarding a pair of young right-handers yesterday, as Rule 5 draft pick Noah Song is set to begin work in sim games in the coming week, as noted by Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer. Song posted impressive numbers in 2019 after the Red Sox drafted him in the fourth round of that year’s draft, though he has not thrown a profession pitch since due to his service as an officer in the US Navy from 2020-2022 and this year’s injury woes. Coffey also notes that top pitching prospect Andrew Painter, who has been out since Spring Training while rehabbing a UCL sprain, threw a 20-pitch bullpen session yesterday. A consensus top prospect int he sport ranked as high as #5 by Baseball America entering the 2023 season, the 20-year-old Painter seemed poised to claim the fifth starter job in Philadelphia before the UCL injury left him shut down from baseball activity. Painter’s return to the mound is sure to breed optimism among fans in Philadelphia, though Coffey notes that manager Rob Thomson gave no update to Painter’s timetable for return ahead of yesterday’s bullpen session.
Mike Puma of the New York Post suggested today that the Mets could look to skip the next start of right-hander Tylor Megill, who has struggled to a 5.14 ERA in 63 innings as a regular member of the club’s rotation this season. Things have gotten particularly difficult for Megill over the past three weeks, and the young right-hander has posted a ghastly 8.64 ERA in his last four starts, walking a whopping twelve batters while striking out just fourteen in 16 2/3 innings of work. As Puma notes, the club won’t require a fifth starter until they face the Astros on June 20, allowing them to either skip Megill’s next start and use him out of the bullpen for a period of time, or perhaps option Megill to Triple-A before giving Joey Lucchesi or David Peterson a look in the rotation. Manager Buck Showalter acknowledged that coming off days provide the club with flexibility, “especially in the bullpen if we wanted to add an arm.”

NL East Notes: Soroka, Sanchez, Garcia, Rogers, Phillies, Doolittle

By Mark Polishuk | May 27, 2023 at 9:49pm CDT

The Braves optioned Dylan Dodd to Triple-A today, creating a question about who might start against the Athletics on Tuesday during what was supposed to be Dodd’s next turn in the rotation. Whether Bryce Elder pitches on Monday or Tuesday, Atlanta will need another starter for one of those two games, and it seems possible that Michael Soroka might be on the verge of his return to the big leagues. Manager Brian Snitker downplayed the idea to Sarah K. Spencer of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and other reporters, saying that Soroka was just one of “all options” the team was considering.

A decision will have to come relatively quickly, as Soroka is slated to start for Triple-A Gwinnett on Sunday. The right-hander has a 4.33 ERA, 23% strikeout rate, and 7.2% walk rate over 35 1/3 innings for Gwinnett this season, though one rough outing against Buffalo on April 30 (seven ER in three innings) somewhat skewed Soroka’s numbers. If Soroka does return against the A’s, it will mark his first MLB appearance since August 3, 2020, as Soroka has had his career interrupted for close to three years due to a pair of Achilles tears. It remains to be seen if Soroka can pitch anywhere near his 2019 All-Star form, but for an Atlanta team that will be without Max Fried and Kyle Wright for some time yet, the Braves would love to see Soroka at least eat some innings and stop a revolving door in the rotation.

Trevor Rogers Placed On IL With Biceps Strain

By Darragh McDonald | April 21, 2023 at 2:50pm CDT

April 21: The Marlins officially placed Rogers on the 15-day injured list today with a left biceps strain, per Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extra Base. In a corresponding move, left-hander Steven Okert has been activate from the IL, where he began the season due to a left adductor issue. Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald had previously noted that Okert was with the club and that Rogers’ IL move was listed on the MLB transaction tracker.

April 19, 8:00pm: Craig Mish of SportsGrid tweets that Rogers appears likely to land on the injured list. He notes that the club is hopeful Rogers’ recovery timetable will be measured in “weeks, not months.”

3:05pm: Marlins left-hander Trevor Rogers was removed from his start today after a visit from the trainer, having thrown just 58 pitches in three-plus innings. The club later announced his ailment as left forearm tightness, per Andre Fernandez of the Miami Herald.

At this point, it’s unclear exactly what the lefty’s injury is or how severe, but any issue with a pitcher’s throwing arm is cause for some concern. He and the club will likely do further testing to get more clarity on the specific diagnosis and prognosis. The Marlins are out to a strong 10-8 start here in the early parts of the season and will hope that Rogers has just a minor issue that will not require any significant absence.

The southpaw has had an inconsistent career so far, which started with a 6.11 ERA over 11 starts in 2020. He then had an excellent breakout campaign the following year, throwing 133 innings over 25 starts with a 2.64 ERA. He struck out 28.5% of batters faced while walking 8.4% and getting grounders at a solid 40.1% rate. He came in second in the National League Rookie of the Year voting, trailing only Jonathan India. However, he couldn’t maintain that production last year, posting a 5.47 ERA over 23 starts as strikeout rate fell to 22.2%. He also went on the injured list for about a month due to back spasms and finished the year on the IL due to a lat strain.

Rogers has been in decent form here so far in 2023, with his ERA at an even 4.00 after today’s truncated start. If he eventually has to miss some time, it would be the second blow to the Marlins’ rotation, as Johnny Cueto is on the IL due to biceps tightness and is reportedly facing an absence of several weeks. Even in the event of Rogers missing time, the club would still have Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett in that scenario, but they would need a fifth starter at some point.

Devin Smeltzer is up with the big league club for long relief purposes but last pitched back on April 10, when he allowed five earned runs in four innings. Sixto Sánchez is on the 40-man but hasn’t pitched competitively since 2020 due to ongoing shoulder issues and is currently ramping up in extended Spring Training. Daniel Castano has already been up with the club once and could perhaps do so again. Non-roster options in Triple-A include Chi Chi González and Bryan Hoeing.

Marlins, Twins Continue To Discuss Trade Possibilities Involving Luis Arraez, Pablo Lopez

By Anthony Franco | January 17, 2023 at 10:19pm CDT

The Marlins and Twins continue to explore trade possibilities involving Minnesota infielder Luis Arraez and Miami’s surplus of starting pitching, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first wrote last week that Arraez’s name had come up in discussions involving Marlins righty Pablo López but suggested the Twins were uninterested in parting with the infielder.

Hayes similarly hears that Minnesota isn’t willing to pull the trigger on a one-for-one swap of Arraez and López. However, Hayes characterizes Minnesota as willing to entertain larger possibilities involving Arraez and controllable starting pitching targets. While the Twins aren’t actively shopping him, they’re apparently keeping an open mind to broader trade permutations. There’s no indication anything is imminent, and Hayes notes that the sides haven’t directly spoken in several days even as a general line of communication between the clubs seemingly remains open.

The Marlins’ willingness to dealing from the rotation has dated back at least as far as the 2021-22 offseason. Miami has yet to make a major trade but is still generally expected to subtract a starter for an offensive addition between now and Opening Day.

Reports have suggested the Fish were amenable to offers on any of López, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera. While there’s no indication that’s officially changed, it seems talks are focusing in on the most experienced member of the group. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote this afternoon that López has moved the forefront of Miami’s trade discussions around the league. According to the Herald, discussions on Rogers and Cabrera have “cooled” of late.

That’s not an especially surprising development. López is down to two seasons of remaining club control. Rogers and Luzardo are each controllable for four years, while Cabrera can be retained for another six seasons. That has made López the most straightforward trade candidate in the Miami rotation all along, although early reports this winter suggested the Fish might instead look towards a Rogers deal while keeping López in the fold.

Even with the comparatively lesser control window, López is a highly appealing trade chip for Miami general manager Kim Ng and her staff. The Venezuelan-born righty has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons. He hasn’t walked more than 7.5% of batters faced in any of those campaigns and has posted at least a 23.6% strikeout rate in all three seasons. López sits in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball and owns one of the game’s better changeups. He misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average clip and generally manages solid results against right and left-handed hitters alike.

He’ll play the 2023 campaign on a $5.45MM salary after avoiding arbitration last week. The 26-year-old will be due one more raise the following year before hitting free agency over the 2024-25 offseason.

Acquiring a starter who’s controllable beyond next season is apparently on the wishlist for a Minnesota club that could see a notable chunk of its rotation depart next winter. Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are all slated for free agency after the 2023 campaign. Of their current starting five, only Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are controllable beyond next season. Minnesota extended their window of control over righty Chris Paddack by an extra season last week, signing him through the end of 2025. He’ll likely get another rotation opportunity at some point but is currently on the mend from the second Tommy John procedure of his career. Young pitchers like Simeon Woods Richardson, Josh Winder and Louie Varland could play their way into the mix at some point but are far from established.

While it’s easy to see the appeal of adding a quality pitcher like López who’d stick around through 2024, Minnesota remains unwilling to do so in a straight swap for Arraez. The left-handed hitter is arbitration eligible for one season longer than López, controllable through 2025. His 2023 salary remains undefined — he and the club look to be headed for an arbitration hearing after not reaching an agreement last week — but will check in between $5MM and $6.1MM.

Arraez is fresh off his first All-Star campaign. He claimed the American League batting title by hitting .316 and reached base at a .375 clip overall. The 25-year-old only hit eight home runs in 603 plate appearances but is among the sport’s best pure hitters. No qualified hitter struck out less often than Arraez, who went down on strikes in only 7.1% of his trips. He was one of six qualified batters with more walks than strikeouts, drawing free passes at a decent 8.3% rate.

A second base prospect throughout his time in the minors, Arraez has assumed more of a bat-first utility role in recent years. Public defensive metrics have given him mixed reviews for his work at the keystone, and Minnesota turned to him more often at first base in deference to Jorge Polanco last season. Arraez can also play some third base and rotate through designated hitter. Miami has Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jean Segura to play second and third base, respectively. There’d be room for Arraez to join right-handed power bats Garrett Cooper and Jorge Soler in the first base/DH mix, and he’s the archetype of the high-contact bat the Miami front office has reportedly sought.

If Miami and the Twins can’t bridge the gap in their trade discussions, the Marlins would find no shortage of interest in López elsewhere. The Padres and Cardinals have also been linked to the hurler this offseason while a number of others checked in at last summer’s trade deadline. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch implied this afternoon (on Twitter) there wasn’t much momentum between the Fish and Cardinals on López right now, though, suggesting that Miami’s interest in St. Louis outfielder Lars Nootbaar has been rebuffed.

Cardinals Among Teams To Inquire On Marlins’ Starters

By Steve Adams | January 17, 2023 at 10:53am CDT

The Cardinals and Marlins have held “at least preliminary” discussions regarding Miami’s bevy of young starters, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Rosenthal suggests that St. Louis is a nice fit for Pablo Lopez, although on paper, it’s easy enough to make a case for just about any of the Marlins’ available starters as a fit in St. Louis. Each of Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera has seen his name surface in trade chatter recently. Miami, however, doesn’t seem to have any plans to deal ace Sandy Alcantara, whom the Cardinals actually traded to the Fish alongside Zac Gallen in the deal that sent Marcell Ozuna from Miami to St. Louis.

The Cardinals have a solid-looking rotation on the surface, with each of Jordan Montgomery, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty likely to slot into the starting five. Depth options behind the group include Dakota Hudson, Jake Woodford, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Andre Pallante, although the latter two did well in a bullpen setting in 2022. Further down the line are prospects Gordon Graceffo, Michael McGreevy and Tink Hence, although none of that group is on the 40-man roster just yet.

All that said, however, the Cards could lose nearly their entire rotation after the season. Wainwright is set to retire, while each of Mikolas, Montgomery and Flaherty are free agents next winter. Only Matz, whose four-year contract covers the 2022-25 seasons, is signed or controlled beyond the current season.

In that sense, there’s good reason for the Cards to pursue a starter who can be controlled through at least the 2024 season. There’s surely some internal hope that someone like Liberatore, Graceffo or McGreevy can step up and seize a rotation spot when an opportunity inevitably presents itself this season, but that’s a lot to bank on. And, even if that happens, the Cards would still be looking at multiple rotation spots they need to fill next offseason — perhaps as many as three.

Lopez, 27 in March, has a 3.52 ERA over his past 340 big league innings and is arbitration-eligible through the 2024 campaign. Luzardo, even younger at 25, enjoyed a nice bounceback year in 2022 when he notched a 3.32 ERA and 30% strikeout rate, but a forearm injury limited him to just 100 1/3 innings. He’s under team control through 2026. That’s the same amount of club control as the 25-year-old Rogers, a 2021 Rookie of the Year finalist who stumbled to a 5.47 ERA in 107 frames in 2022, his second full MLB campaign. The 24-year-old Cabrera, meanwhile, has six full years of club control remaining and notched a 3.01 ERA in 71 2/3 innings in 2022.

None of that bunch is expensive, with Lopez’s $5.45MM salary leading the way. Finances shouldn’t play a major consideration for the Cardinals anyhow; they’re on pace to roughly match last year’s $163MM payroll, and president of baseball ops John Mozeliak had previously indicated the ability to increase payroll. From Miami’s vantage point, their projected $103MM payroll would be the second-highest mark in club history.

The Marlins are known to be seeking improvements to their lineup and have been prioritizing center field and catcher dating back to last offseason. Miami swung a trade for Pittsburgh catcher Jacob Stallings prior to the 2022 season but saw the former Gold Glove winner turn in a disappointing .233/.292/.292 batting line while his typically high-end defensive grades also cratered. Center field remains an unaddressed need, and Miami again appears likely to take someone better suited for a corner (Bryan De La Cruz) and hope for the best this season.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are deep in outfielders with Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar likely lined up left-to-right at the MLB level. (Rosenthal suggests that of the bunch, Nootbaar is the least likely to change hands.) Top prospect Jordan Walker, who’s likely all but off limits in trade talks, looms behind that group. Alec Burleson, meanwhile, has already gotten some MLB experience, and fellow outfielder Moises Gomez posted big numbers in the upper minors. Behind the plate, the Cards have well-regarded catching prospect Ivan Herrera, who doesn’t exactly have a clear path to a regular role now that Willson Contreras has been signed to a five-year deal.

Certainly, the Cards and Marlins seem to have aligning needs that could lead to a trade, but there’s also no indication that talks are particularly heated. Miami has likely discussed its available starters with more than half the league, given the dearth of viable big league options elsewhere on the trade market. Even the Cards and Marlins themselves don’t know whether a deal will ultimately come together at this juncture, but it’s nevertheless of some note that the two parties have at least held some surface-level talks.

Marlins Letting Teams Know Four Of Their Starters Are Available

By Simon Hampton | January 8, 2023 at 10:55am CDT

The Marlins’ Pablo Lopez has often come up in trade rumors, but according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Lopez is just one of four starters that the Marlins are telling other teams are available in trade talks. The other three are Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers and Jesus Luzardo. It’s been widely reported for quite some time that the Marlins were willing to tap into their pitching surplus in trades, but this sheds more light on who the Marlins are willing to trade and who’s seemingly off limits.

The Marlins have a solid stable of controllable pitching with ace Sandy Alcantara and youngster Braxton Garrett joining that quartet, as well as a group of young arms including Sixto Sanchez, Eury Perez and Max Meyer who should be able to help the big league club within the next few seasons. As such, there’s definitely a surplus of pitching in Miami and the team could well look to offload an arm to bolster their offense.

Last summer, it was reported that the Yankees came close to a deal that would’ve sent Lopez to the Bronx in a deal involving Gleyber Torres. It was also reported this winter that the Marlins and Rockies discussed a deal involving Cabrera and Brendan Rodgers, so it’s not secret that Miami is listening on some of their starters. Notably, both of the two players the Fish would have acquired in those trades are second basemen, but they’ve recently gone out and picked up Jean Segura to bolster their infield group.

Instead, the team could look to turn one of their starters into an outfielder. The Padres have been linked with adding another starter, and have reportedly shown a willingness to trade Trent Grisham, so there could be a match there. It’s also been reported that the Pirates are seeking young pitching to headline any deal for Bryan Reynolds, so if the Marlins are really keen to make a big splash perhaps floating Cabrera as part of a deal would get Pittsburgh’s attention.

With six years of control remaining, Cabrera, 24, would certainly be an attractive acquisition for pitching hungry teams. A former top-100 prospect, he tossed 71 2/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball for the Fish last year, with a solid 25.8% strikeout rate and an 11.3% walk rate.

Luzardo, 25, is hitting arbitration for the first time this year as a Super Two player, and is projected (via Matt Swartz) to make $2MM in 2023. He put together a 3.32 ERA over 100 1/3 innings with a very strong 30% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate. He missed about two-and-a-half months last season with a forearm strain, but a full season of his output would make for a quality starting pitcher. The left-hander is under control for four more years.

Rogers, 25, was excellent in 2021, but took a step back in 2022. The southpaw made the All Star game in ’21 during a season in which he threw 133 innings of 2.64 ERA ball. That was followed up by 107 innings of 5.47 ERA ball in ’22, as Rogers saw his strikeout rate drop by about 6% and his walk rate jump by a percentage point. He also saw his HR/FB rate jump from just 5% in 2021 to 13.2% last year. Rogers is under control for four more seasons, and is due to hit arbitration for the first time next winter.

Lopez, 27 in March, was a steady presence in the rotation for the Fish last season, hurling 180 innings of 3.75 ERA ball over 32 starts. He may not possess the upside of the three younger pitchers, but Lopez has been a consistent pitcher for a few years now, finishing up with ERAs of 3.61, 3.07 and 3.75 in the past three years. Projected to make $5.6MM through arbitration this year, he’s under control for another two seasons and would slot nicely into the middle of a lot of rotations around baseball.

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