Pavin Smith Unlikely To Return In 2025 Due To Quad Strain

Pavin Smith is “likely” done for the 2025 season, manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including Jacob Gurvis of MLB.com) earlier today. Lovullo noted that Smith has not been officially shut down for the season, but after he went on the injured list with a strained left quad yesterday it seems unlikely he’ll be able to get healthy and back up to speed in time to appear before the end of the season.

Smith, 29, appeared in 87 games for the Diamondbacks this season and has slashed .258/.362/.434 with a wRC+ of 122. That’s solid production on paper, but those surface level numbers cover up what was a strange, up-and-down season for the former seventh-overall pick. Smith started the year as one of the hottest hitters in the majors, as he slashed an unbelievable .342/.373/.640 through the end of April. Even during that hot stretch, he was striking out at a hefty 28.1% clip but made up for it by hitting for significant power and floating a massive .488 BABIP.

That batted ball luck was going to run out at some point, however, and his next 48 games saw him hit just .232/.336/.384 in 146 plate appearances. His 13.7% walk rate in that stretch remained quite impressive, but his power largely disappeared and he struck out at an ugly 32.9% clip. It wasn’t long after that when Smith suffered an oblique strain that left him sidelined for the majority of July and much of August. He’s appeared in just 14 games in the back half of Arizona’s schedule, and in those limited appearances he’s hit .195/.244/.268 with a 32.6% strikeout rate in 46 plate appearances.

With such a hot start to the year followed by a lengthy cooldown later in the first half, it would be easy to write off Smith’s early-season performance as a simple flash in the pan. There could certainly be merit to that assessment, but it’s also worth noting that his injury-marred second half left him with little opportunity to make adjustments in order to respond to those struggles he began to have after the calendar flipped to May. In conjunction with Smith’s brilliant partial season in 2024, where he slashed .272/.371/.568 in 97 plate appearances after the All-Star break, it’s anyone’s guess what sort of production the Diamondbacks will be able to get out of Smith next year. It seems likely he could be tasked with sharing time at first base with Tyler Locklear in at least some capacity, though Locklear’s .169/.256/.247 slash line in 23 games for Arizona this year hasn’t exactly inspired confidence to this point.

In the short term, Smith’s at-bats at DH will be handled by Ketel Marte. That’s because, as Lovullo noted to reporters (including Gurvis) this evening, Marte is dealing with what the manager described as “fatigue” in his right forearm. That forearm issue has led the Snakes to play Marte out of the DH spot in each of the past two games rather than play him at his usual position of second base. With Jordan Lawlar now on the roster to get increased reps at the hot corner, perhaps more DH time for Marte down the stretch could mean additional opportunities for Blaze Alexander to remain in the lineup even when Lawlar is playng. Alexander has hit a respectable .234/.331/.441 in 49 games this year while splitting time between second and third base.