It’s been a rough few weeks for the Mets. While they managed to take two of three in their series against the Mariners this weekend, it was their first series win since they swept the Giants all the way back on the weekend of July 25. Since then, New York has gone just 4-14 and not only fallen five games back of the Phillies in the NL East, but is getting challenged by the insurgent Reds for the final NL Wild Card spot. Despite that brutal stretch of play in recent weeks, this isn’t exactly a new phenomenon. While the club was at one point up 5.5 games in the division, that was nearly two months ago at this point. They’ve gone 21-34 since then, good for a .318 winning percentage that falls between the full-season figures posted by the White Sox (.355) and Rockies (.282).
That makes the final six weeks of the regular season more important for the Mets than their fans could’ve imagined during their strong first half. The question for the Mets is less about the possibility of an NL East title and a bye through the Wild Card round at this point, and more about if they’ll be able to squeak into the postseason at all. The club attempted to break into what, at the time, looked to be a fairly wide-open race for a bye to the NLDS when they made a number of aggressive, buy-side trades in the run-up to the trade deadline.
Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, and Gregory Soto joined Edwin Diaz at the back of what was expected to become the most fearsome bullpen in the league, and Cedric Mullins was brought in to plug the one hole on the team’s roster. The results of those trades have been mixed to this point, Soto (8 1/3 scoreless innings) and Rogers (1.93 ERA in 9 1/3 innings) have both excelled to this point, but Helsley has struggled to an ugly 7.11 ERA in eight appearances for the Mets so far, with four additional unearned runs allowed as well. Meanwhile, Mullins has a paltry .255 on-base percentage with a 29.1% strikeout rate since arriving in the Big Apple.
Perhaps the failings of Helsley and Mullins in their first few games with the team could be overlooked if the rest of the team was performing better, but the club’s internal core hasn’t exactly impressed lately either. Only six teams in baseball have scored fewer runs than the Mets since June 13, and while the offense has picked things up in recent weeks (124 wRC+ in August) their run prevention has taken a nosedive. Only four teams (Marlins, Pirates, Nationals, and Rockies) have allowed more runs to score than the Mets since the start of August, and the decision not to bring in a starter at the deadline is looking particularly disastrous given the club’s rotation has put together a brutal 6.23 ERA in the weeks following the end of trade season.
Bleak as things have looked in recent weeks, however, that shouldn’t be taken to mean there’s no reason for optimism. After all, the Mets are still in playoff position even after all of those struggles. Only Cincinnati has a record above .500 among NL clubs not currently in playoff position, meaning the Mets are in a much more comfortable spot than they would be if they were in the AL, where teams like the Royals and Guardians are sticking around the periphery of the Wild Card race with solid records. While the Reds (36-30 since the start of June) have looked good lately thanks to a fantastic rotation, their offense hasn’t looked especially threatening at any point in the year. Mets superstars Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor are both firing on all cylinders offensively in recent weeks, by contrast, and that could help stave off Cincinnati unless the Reds’ bats get going.
Even if the Reds stick around in the race long-term, it’s at least possible that another team in the NL playoff picture could start to struggle. The Cubs have scored the fewest runs in baseball since July 1 after starting the year as an offensive juggernaut. With pitchers like Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd reaching uncharted territory in terms of workload and a big series against Milwaukee this week, their currently stable position in the NL playoff picture could look much less secure in a hurry. The Phillies, meanwhile, lost Zack Wheeler for an uncertain amount of time over the weekend. While Aaron Nola returned from the shelf to replace him in the rotation, his first start back (six earned runs surrendered in 2 1/3 innings to the lowly Nationals) didn’t exactly inspire confidence.
How do MLBTR readers view the Mets’ hopes of making a second consecutive postseason appearance this year? Will they be able to hold on despite their recent struggles, or will the rest of the NL playoff field manage to push them out? Have your say in the poll below:
How much walk could a Soto walk if a walk could walk Soto?
How bout those Mutts? Best team $ can buy.
No. They aren’t a well constructed ball club. Reds will take the final spot.
Reds stink also
@VegasSDfan
Padres stink too. Couldn’t rise to the challenge and at least win one game against the Dodgers. At least the Jays won one game against them.
The reds have a higher expected win/loss and have won more games against teams over .500
Yes, but they have Tito…
But do they have Michael and Jermaine?
I and confident Milwaukee and Philadelphia will wins their divisions. The second place team among Dodgers and Padres will be the top will card. Cubs will be second wild card. Mets and Reds will be within a game or two of each other at the end. Soto, Lindor, Alonso and Nimmo can’t pitch.
The Braves?? Haha
Completely Useless By September
The 2025 season depends on Francisco Alvarez.
Dude needs to stop hurting himself with dumb overly aggressive base running blunders. He is worth more to the team on the field. He has no value to the team while rehabilitating from injuries. Dude needs serious lessons about controlled aggression. How many times is he going to wreck himself? This happens every year, sometimes twice a year.
CHILL THE **** OUT FRANCISCO, or we will be forever talking about what could have been.
Oh, and Soto should bat first. Lots of walks. Lots of solo homers. More plate appearances for the guy with the highest OBP. Makes the pitcher throw lots of pitches. He even steals bases now. SOOOOOOO, why isn’t Soto batting first in the Mets lineup?
No, just because there the mets.
*They’re
Not sure what that means when they have been a playoff team 2 of the last three years.
I’m sorry…I can’t hear you from 3 games below the Marlins.
Nope and the cubs won’t either.
? Who is getting the final 2 wildcards then? CIN and STL? The Cubs would have to go like 16-22 or worse to not make it.
Pittsburgh and Colorado
The Bears
The Mets will be in first place by the first week of September.
😂🤣😂
Don’t screen print those Division Champs tee-shirts just yet…… though someone probably is.
At least Stingray23 is ready to buy one.
Stingray, the Mets stand a better shot of missing the playoffs than passing the Phillies.
Yep, too much mid in the NL for them to not be one of the 6 best teams.
I wouldn’t discount the possibility of the Mets, Reds and Phillies making the postseason. The Padres are the 4th-lowest-scoring team in the NL. This may prove to be unsustainable.
is it too late to trade more great prospects for 35yr old trash relievers?
Who was a great prospect?
It’s just more Haterade from chandlerbing. Calling Rogers a “trash reliever” outs him as knowing nothing about baseball.
Mets have no chance as long as idiot Mendoza is at the helm
Mendoza’s not the one who stocked the rotation with Holmes and Montas and Canning and Blackburn.
Canning was a good signing, and Blackburn was Eppler. Holmes was a good signing, if you look at his overall numbers. Montas was a really bad signing. That one I will never understand.
Eppler? How’s that? Dude wasn’t even with the Mets when they traded for Blackburn.
I stand corrected. I don’t know why I was thinking it was 2023. Maybe because he was injured constantly, and for a long period of time. Sorry about that.
And remember, they could have non tendered blackburn before the season but made a conscious choice to pick up the 4m+ contract on an injured guy.
That is understandable. At 4 mil, a starting pitcher is worth the look. I mean, they gave Montas $17 mil for 2 season. the price of pitching this last off season was pretty outrageous all around. If you got average numbers out of Blackburn, that would have been a steal.
I just think with the injury had, it was pretty predictable how it would turn out… At least for me it was
He didn’t reinjure the spine. He had a shoulder impingement this season. Like I said, at 4 mil, considering the going rate for starting pitching, was worth the gamble.
The chances are 50-50. Either they will or they won’t.
Hard hitting ground breaks revolutionary insight.
Next up. Our bats must hit ball. Other teams bats must miss ball.
Man hits head on sidewalk. Gravity blamed.
They should be able to their only real competitor is the reds but they just humbled my mariners so I don’t see them collapsing in September
Well for some reason your all world center fielder decided not to catch balls the last couple games.
If they can right their pitching staff, then yes, they can hold on. But that’s a big if. For Manaea, the ‘loose body’ in his elbow might be affecting him. Maybe not. He’s still working his way back from injury but he’s been hit hard a few times. Senga needs to stay healthy and get through five innings every start. Holmes has struggled to get five innings in and seems to make things worse whenever a runner gets on base. Peterson has been great overall but has had a few difficult starts recently. McLean has only one start under his belt.
Good news is they get Megill back soon. They also have a potential reinforcement for Holmes if they pull the trigger on Sproat (0.67 ERA in July, one bad start in his last 8, though it was his most recent one).
Bullpen is set up decent as long as Helsley gets things together and Stanek and Montas never pitch in anything resembling a high leverage situation.
The hitting is fine. Lindor and Alvarez are hitting again, Alonso has weathered his awful slump, Nimmo seems to be getting a little better again. Hopefully Vientos is back on the right track with his HR last night.
“Mets superstars Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor are both firing on all cylinders offensively in recent weeks.”
All cylinders? Lindor was 16 for 98 until the past 5 games. Comon’…
Wow, 98 at bats in 5 games!
He said “until” the last five games. So the 98 bats preceding the last five games.
And Soto is 19-86 in the last 30 days (.221) BUT he walks.
Its a long season. Ups and downs are inevitable.
My favorite part of every baseball season is when the Mets decide to choke
You mean like last season?
The real issue is Stearns. He never likes to admit he was wrong. We could of had Sproat and Mclean up a month ago but he kept forcing Mendoza to throw Montas and Holmes out there. Loser mentality. I still think we have an 80% chance to make the playoffs since the Reds aren’t any good in my opinin. They have no pitching outside of Abbot and their bullpen is a bottom 5 pen
Reds have this pitcher named Hunter Greene that’s not too shabby…………………..
Tong would be called up before Sproat.
@Mets Era Thumping Soto I disagree, its better for Tong to get Triple A experience and not rush him. Tong should of gotten brought up to Triple A 2 months ago but Stearns didn’t want to tank his stock just incase he did poorly before the trade deadline
Pitchers don’t need triple A experience. He is the most dominant pitcher in the minors and it’s not even close. He will be just fine in the Majors.
Exactly… tong stuff wise is clearly more ready than sproat
It doesn’t look super promising right now, but I’d say they’ll make it.
Probably should have did stuff at the deadline if making the playoffs was so important. New owner and new front office, same old Mets: big talk that ends with inaction.
They were one of the busier teams near the deadline and acquired three relievers and a center fielder. Perhaps you missed that?
It’s all about pitching. Well, that, and pitching. Did I mention pitching? Before I forget, it’s the pitching.
@Why Exactly why I think the Reds edge out the Mets. The Reds got better pitching and Terry Francona as manager. Terry isn’t going to over manage his pitching staff.
800 million just to miss the playoffs lol.
Can a MLBTR article use proper grammar?
CAN the Mets hang on to a playoff spot? Of course!
Will they? Maybe.
Also, “onto a playoff spot.”
The use of “can” is correct here. It’s a question of ability.
reflect
“The use of “can” is correct here. It’s a question of ability.”
Then it’s not a very interesting question
Every team has the ability play well enough over a month or so to maintain a small lead over other teams. Every team can also lose that lead.
The interesting question is “will they”
Can Can. Dance say Toulouse. Dance
How soon we forget. The Mets will be there. Precisely because they’re the Mets.. It does my heart good to see the ill-informed expressing their opinions. We’ll see how the humble pie tastes at the end of September.
Soto and his .251 “generational talent” BA.
Almost 800 million. Nope.
Not all his fault for the plight of the team of course but not a well built roster.
@cencal Soto hasn’t been the problem this year. He hasn’t hit in the clutch but hes been really coming alive as of late. I do agree he is way overpaid. The real issues are Stearns, Mendoza, Lindor, and Nimmo of this team
yeah but if he’s 30 hr, 71 rbi, 20 sb, 146wRC+ at his lowest?
@PiazzaParty he inflates his stats. Hes the type of player to go 15/20 and then go 2-60. I’d rather a player be consistent. 15/20 positivly impacts 3 to 4 games. 2-60 negativly impacts 15-17 games. Thats the issue
LFGM
Any evidence that he’s less consistent than any other player? Or the average player?
Well his OPS by month is 752, 792, 1196, 760, 951 so he has definitely been streaky. Those sub 800 ops months for him hurt (plus he really has been awful (676 ops) w men on).
Especially compared to his career averages where april is the only month he has a sub 900 average ops (848).
So yeah, he’s way streakier than normal this year.
Ma
“Well his OPS by month is 752, 792, 1196, 760, 951 so he has definitely been streaky”
Has it? It is more or less streaky than average?
I don’t know
You don’t know
I do… i told you in the same post how its far streakier than his career ops by month averages
Ma
But you didn’t tell me if he’s more streaky than other players. Which is, I think, what’s important.
@juan
Sorry, misunderstood. Well, for players at his level, yes. Compared to a Nimmo, no, but when you’re paying for elite, you also want more consistency. So if you look at guys around his WRC+ this year, his sustained lows (three months OPS below 800) are more extreme than others at that level.
So, long answer, yes, but not in comparison to the average or above average player.
@LFG
“@PiazzaParty he inflates his stats. Hes the type of player to go 15/20 and then go 2-60.”
That’s not how averages work at all. Even if that was how averages work, I listed counting stats.
Also its only mid-late August so he’s got time to add to them.
Also Juan Soto has never gone 2-60 in his career.
This was a low effort comment from you man.
@PiazzaParty the post was about Lindor, not Soto. Is it better for someone to go 15/20 over 4 games and then 2/40 over 11 or 12 games or 17/60 over 16 games (consistently spread out). Both equate to a .283 batting average but consistently getting hits gives your team a better chance time win more games
I completely misunderstood the context of your comment, apologies
Soto is 5th in the NL in OPS+ (7th overall) yet you cherry-pick batting average.
Because walks matter more than actual hits? Soto is also 19 for 86 over the last 30 days.
PP
“Because walks matter more than actual hits?”
No. Of course not. But they sure as hell do more than outs.
McLean replacing Montas will make all the difference in the world. Now put Holmes back in the bullpen and bring up Tong. Their offense is going to go off for the rest of the season.
Who we voting off the island?
DFA Stanek?
Option Garrett?
Both NY teams likely miss. 700 million down the toilet.
You don’t think both are making money hand over fist?
Shhh, that’s too much reasoning for around here. Would I spend $700M to make $1.5-1.8B?
They will make it but – and I say this as a die hard but realistic Mets fan – it will be a brief appearance in the playoffs. I just don’t see the starting pitching being strong enough this year to get through the teams they will face.
In the short Wild Card series, anything can happen. But Divisional round would be a serious test for them if they made it that far.
mm
Did you see the Dodgers starting pitching last year being enough?
Yes. Mainly because there’s not much competition outside of the Reds. The Mets have a tough schedule, and their pitching is going to hurt, but their lineup will win enough games to stay ahead of the Reds.
And if they got hot in the playoffs, they could go on a run. That’s playoff baseball in the 3 wildcard era. That’s all it takes.
No
Well….
The FACT IS, the Mets play most of their direct rivals for the Wild Card spot in September.
Should be an exciting watch.
Im going to take pitching over hitting every time, Reds get in and the Mets don’t.
The Mets historically like to choke.
I expect them to again this year.
Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, Cubs and Reds is my guess. The NY teams are veteran teams that prefer the 1st half, before the long season impacts the old bones. The Mets will miss the dance.
When you hire a small Market GM and another Yankees bench coach as manager, do we remember 2 wasted years of Rojas, to be followed by 2 more wasted years of Mendoza line.
Nothing surprising here, Flip a coin but even if the Mets make it in they will get knocked out early.
“Bleak as things have looked” is NOT PROPER ENGLISH. You can’t just leave “as” out to start the sentence—it isn’t optional. If you’re a paid writer, you can’t pick and choose when you use correct grammar.
And “meanwhile” has to START the sentence, not come in the middle between commas.