It’s been a great year for power hitters in MLB, as five different players slugged their 40th home run of the season before the end of August. It’s not often that so many hitters enter September with a realistic shot at the lofty threshold of 60 home runs in a season. It’s a feat that’s only been accomplished nine times, and the combination of Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire account for five of those nine 60-homer seasons. Of course, it’s an incredibly rare feat for a reason, and many promising campaigns fall short in the season’s final month. 12 seasons with between 56 and 59 home runs have been logged throughout MLB history, after all.
Will this year’s biggest power threats join that club of also-ran seasons, or will we see the tenth 60-homer season in MLB history come to fruition this year? Here’s a look at each of the top home run hitters from this season and their chances of reaching that illustrious 60-homer plateau, in order of their current home run totals for 2025:
While everyone else on this list hit their 40th homer of the season in August, Raleigh’s 40th home run was actually slugged on July 26. The Mariners’ catcher has had a historic season this year, setting the all-time single season home run record for a catcher while sitting just four behind Mickey Mantle for the all-time single season record for home runs by a switch hitter. With 50 homers tallied so far this year, it’s hard not to see why Raleigh could have a very real shot at hitting 60 home runs this season. He’s hit at least ten homers in three of the season’s five months so far, and has never hit less than eight in a month this year. With that being said, it’s also worth noting that Raleigh has slowed down a bit in the second half of the season. In 40 games since the All-Star break, Raleigh has posted just a 112 wRC+ with 12 home runs. With just 25 games left to play on the Mariners’ schedule, he’ll need to pick up the pace if he’s going to reach 60 homers this year.
Schwarber is just one homer back of Raleigh in the race for the MLB home run lead after an incredible four-home run performance on August 28. Schwarber has long been one of the game’s premiere power threats and, like Raleigh, has hit at least 10 homers in three of this season’s five months so far. He’ll need to hit 11 in 25 September games in order to reach 60 homers, but one thing working in his favor is that he’s saved most of his power for the second half this year. He’s hit 12 home runs in both July and August, so if he can put up just one more month like the last two, he’ll get there. Of course, a player slugging .655 over his past 52 games also runs the risk of getting pitched around, which could damage Schwarber’s chances of making it to 60. One thing that could work in Schwarber’s favor is his home ballpark, as Statcast considers Citizens Bank Park to be the fifth-most homer friendly stadium in the majors this year.
With three MVP awards in the past four years, no one should put anything past baseball’s two-way superstar. Ohtani became the first player to go 50-50 last season, and with 54 homers tied with Mantle (and seven other seasons) at 22nd on the single-season home run leaderboard. With 45 home runs headed into September, he has an outside shot at not only breaking that personal record, but getting a coveted 60-homer season. 15 home runs in a single month is a tall order for any player, but Ohtani did exactly that back in May when he crushed 15 long balls in 27 games. The Dodgers have two fewer games than that in September, but Ohtani will benefit from playing his home games at Dodger Stadium, which is far and away the most homer-friendly ballpark in the majors this year per Statcast.
Aaron Judge hit his 43rd home run of the season yesterday, and that makes it a tall order for him to reach 60 homers this season. With that being said, onlookers around the game should know better than to doubt the hulking slugger’s offensive abilities at this point, with MVP wins in two of the last three seasons and a completely absurd 202 wRC+ since the start of the 2022 season. Judge is also, of course, the only active player who’s already a member of the 60 home run club after bashing 62 long balls to take the AL home run record from Roger Maris during his 2022 AL MVP campaign. Judge finished just short with 58 home runs last year, but perhaps this year will be different. In order to reach 60 on the season, Judge will need to make a different kind of history: as noted by Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com last year, the record for home runs hit in September (and October, in seasons where it hosts regular season games) belongs jointly to Albert Belle and Babe Ruth. Judge would need to at least tie that duo’s 17 homers in the final month of the year in order to crack 60 long balls this year.
What do MLBTR readers think? Will the league enjoy a 60-homer campaign for the second time in four years this season? And if so, who is most likely to pull it off? Have your say in the polls below:
The fact we are even entertaining this kind of talk tells you all you need to know about major league pitching. But sure…go ahead and expand and let 52 more AAAA players into the league.
Not because they earned it but because these teams need to outfit themselves.
The problem isn’t a lack of talent. There’s plenty of talent, both pitching and position players to go around. It wasn’t as if, ‘back in the day’, every team sported 25 hall of famers on their roster.
The problem is the dispersal of said talent. Most of the talent can be found on a handful of teams on either coast.
Is that why the brewers, tigers and Cubs are all in top 5 standings?
I’m not discounting the dispersal issue but both can be true at the same time. An equal issue is pitcher health, they can’t keep them on the field which lets a lot of bad pitchers log innings.
Unfortunately, neither issue is ever going to get resolved.
Is it dispersal of talent, or the differences amongst organizations in their ability to scout and develop talent? Dispersal only occurs in free agency and when a team trades its stars because they want something in return before FA.
Ah yes anti expansion, that’s the same mentality of being an isolationist like a certain businessman we all know
Ah yes pro expansion. Water down the product some more. We cant even get through a week without seeing position players take the mound in blowout games because teams want to preserve pitching. Not to mention, none of these proposed markets are fit to support a good baseball team let alone an expansion team who will be in the basement of the league for years to start
Boo urns to them!
So are the pitchers throwing too hard with too much spin or are they bums from the minors?
That would require @tiger9 to do some research which he clearly didn’t do before his rant.
baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/bat.shtml
That’s ridiculous. Pitchers are performing better now than ever. We could use more offense.
How can you say that when starting pitchers can barely make it through 6 innings now?
dirtbag,
Pitchers aren’t asked to complete games any more. They’re expected to go full bore every pitch – upper 90s velocity or crazy spin and break – which wears them out faster than pitchers a couple of generations ago, who could ease up when facing the bottom third of the lineup, which was usually slap-hitting defensive specialists. Nowadays, almost every hitter can launch a ball over the fence.
Because bullpens are elite and teams want a fresh arm throwing 100mph in the 6th inning.
Go take a look at the Rockies, Nationals and A’s ERA and tell me bullpens are elite and pitchers are better than they’ve ever been
Ok. Look now at the bottom three from any year and it isn’t any better.
Your Mets are a playoff bound team and have three guys in their rotation right now that spot teams 4-5 runs before the 3rd inning.
And they also have minor leaguers who got called up and are dominating. There are plenty of minor league pitchers that can pitch in the Majors at a high level.
Players swing for the fences much of the time, a lot more often than 20, 30, 40 years ago. More HR, more Ks, lower BA – it’s the name of the game today.
League ERA is 4.14, which is middle of the road for the past 30 years. League batting average is .246, which is one of the lower averages ever, and league OPS is .720, which is historically very average. Low average and high strikeouts aren’t fun, but the bottom line isn’t so different.
There are plenty of great players who aren’t hitting an obscene number of home runs, so it might just be that it’s one of those years where two generational talents are doing their normal thing, a great power hitter is having a career year, and a decent power hitter—for whatever reason—is having a dream season.
The pitching is much stronger than the hitting right now. Teams are producing less offense than they did in other eras. In fact, it’s so hard to put together a rally that players who sell out for power have become relatively more useful.
Id think Schwarber has the best chance. All he does is hit bombs in Delphia
Wth the way Cal has been hitting bombs. He would be the most obvious choice.
I think Ohtani could have if he didn’t start pitching but his offense has been inconsistent ever since. He will be silent for a handful of games and then all of sudden have a couple of homers in a game.
Cal hits 63 and schwarber hits 61 as both win the MVP in their leagues
Cal finds his swing again and gets hot to push the mariners to the playoffs while schwarber is historically strong after the all-star break and keeps hitting homers
Shohei hits 53 and dodgers barely win division while judge hits 57 as he gets out of his slump
What’s your prediction on how many Suarez hits?
lol, with schwarber getting mvp
Judge and Schwarber have the best chance since they both play at stadiums with very generous dimensions painted on the fences
Judge isn’t even close.
Who is the best bunter
I’m going with Raleigh and Schwarber as sitting 10 and 11 away respectively with a month left to play isn’t out of the question. Judge would need 17 and Ohtani 15 and i just don’t see either getting the pitches to do it
I think both Cal and Kyle deserve to be MVP. However, Ohtani probably gets it and Cal over Judge. Judge injury again hurt his chances this year. Good luck next year, Captain.
Schwarber has 4.4 fWAR, third best on his own team behind Trea Turner’s 6.2 and Christopher Sanchez and his 5.2.
Ohtani is the NL leader in fWAR, with 7.0.
Kyle is one dimensional (Homeruns), or two dimensional if you include a good walk rate. The homers are tremendous, but Ohtani simply produces in so many more ways, and isn’t exactly a slouch at the homers either.
You are forgetting that Schwarber is an excellent base runs, high baseball IQ, and RBI machine (especially in the clutch).
Being a DH that performs at an extremely high level also takes a different kind of athlete. Not many in the history of the game that continue to produce at high levels year after year. You can name the majority of them on one hand.
I also believe he can play 1B or the OF if needed.
Some guys are just the “Glue” that makes it all go. He is one of those guys. As a Red Sox fan, would I love to see him this dude in our lineup again next year!
He makes every hitter around him better!
“Being a DH that performs at an extremely high level also takes a different kind of athlete”
That describes Ohtani very well.
Hey Popgun, I really appreciate your input, but I have a hard time getting my head around “base runs.” I’ve tried googling but those two terms are so generic I get frustrated finding anything pertinent. I consider myself a well informed baseball fan, so it’s annoying to me that this concept alludes me. If you have a second, a quick definition of what “base runs” means in your mind would be very helpful!!
Base runner.
What about being a high level DH that also is a starting pitcher?
I love him as much as you do, but playing him at first is a horrible idea. I can’t believe they actually played him in the outfield this year. He gives a 100% effort in the outfield for sure, but he’s just not a good outfielder.
Maybe if Schwarber was a starting pitcher he could get it. Ohtani has him still beat in all offensive categories except HRs and RBIs
Cal has the most so he obviously makes the most sense. But I wouldn’t put it past Schwarber. He hit the longest HR I have seen live in the NLCS. I think it’s still in the air.
Fun chase as long as the hitter, bats and balls are not juiced.
I think Schwarber and Raleigh both might do it. And one player left off this list that definitely has an outside shot at it is Eugenio Suarez.
Mariners and Phillies fans unite!
The team that just swept us and made us look like AAA players. No thanks
Cards need to move Gorman and Walker
Odd place to post this
Odd place but completely valid St Louis has absolutely botched both of their developments
I’d like to see pitchers complete 10 of their starts.
You could just watch old games from three decades ago. Or if you want to see Bob Parker host The Price is Right on the Gameshow Network because he’s not coming back from the dead.
I’m kinda hoping Kyle hits exactly 58, so he and Ryan Howard are tied for the franchise record.
Judge stays healthy and goes on one of his tears, then he can.
I don’t think anyone will get to 60
I think Schwarber has the best chance
I think Ohtani is far and away the NL MVP. I don’t think Schwarber is even second.
I think Raleigh is the AL MVP
No one gets to 60 this year.
I think Schwarber has the best shot. Why did the Red Sox let this guy get away…….?..
Even with the Z.Wheeler injury ,I like Philly in the WS. Against Seattle.