It’s been a great year for power hitters in MLB, as five different players slugged their 40th home run of the season before the end of August. It’s not often that so many hitters enter September with a realistic shot at the lofty threshold of 60 home runs in a season. It’s a feat that’s only been accomplished nine times, and the combination of Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire account for five of those nine 60-homer seasons. Of course, it’s an incredibly rare feat for a reason, and many promising campaigns fall short in the season’s final month. 12 seasons with between 56 and 59 home runs have been logged throughout MLB history, after all.
Will this year’s biggest power threats join that club of also-ran seasons, or will we see the tenth 60-homer season in MLB history come to fruition this year? Here’s a look at each of the top home run hitters from this season and their chances of reaching that illustrious 60-homer plateau, in order of their current home run totals for 2025:
While everyone else on this list hit their 40th homer of the season in August, Raleigh’s 40th home run was actually slugged on July 26. The Mariners’ catcher has had a historic season this year, setting the all-time single season home run record for a catcher while sitting just four behind Mickey Mantle for the all-time single season record for home runs by a switch hitter. With 50 homers tallied so far this year, it’s hard not to see why Raleigh could have a very real shot at hitting 60 home runs this season. He’s hit at least ten homers in three of the season’s five months so far, and has never hit less than eight in a month this year. With that being said, it’s also worth noting that Raleigh has slowed down a bit in the second half of the season. In 40 games since the All-Star break, Raleigh has posted just a 112 wRC+ with 12 home runs. With just 25 games left to play on the Mariners’ schedule, he’ll need to pick up the pace if he’s going to reach 60 homers this year.
Schwarber is just one homer back of Raleigh in the race for the MLB home run lead after an incredible four-home run performance on August 28. Schwarber has long been one of the game’s premiere power threats and, like Raleigh, has hit at least 10 homers in three of this season’s five months so far. He’ll need to hit 11 in 25 September games in order to reach 60 homers, but one thing working in his favor is that he’s saved most of his power for the second half this year. He’s hit 12 home runs in both July and August, so if he can put up just one more month like the last two, he’ll get there. Of course, a player slugging .655 over his past 52 games also runs the risk of getting pitched around, which could damage Schwarber’s chances of making it to 60. One thing that could work in Schwarber’s favor is his home ballpark, as Statcast considers Citizens Bank Park to be the fifth-most homer friendly stadium in the majors this year.
With three MVP awards in the past four years, no one should put anything past baseball’s two-way superstar. Ohtani became the first player to go 50-50 last season, and with 54 homers tied with Mantle (and seven other seasons) at 22nd on the single-season home run leaderboard. With 45 home runs headed into September, he has an outside shot at not only breaking that personal record, but getting a coveted 60-homer season. 15 home runs in a single month is a tall order for any player, but Ohtani did exactly that back in May when he crushed 15 long balls in 27 games. The Dodgers have two fewer games than that in September, but Ohtani will benefit from playing his home games at Dodger Stadium, which is far and away the most homer-friendly ballpark in the majors this year per Statcast.
Aaron Judge hit his 43rd home run of the season yesterday, and that makes it a tall order for him to reach 60 homers this season. With that being said, onlookers around the game should know better than to doubt the hulking slugger’s offensive abilities at this point, with MVP wins in two of the last three seasons and a completely absurd 202 wRC+ since the start of the 2022 season. Judge is also, of course, the only active player who’s already a member of the 60 home run club after bashing 62 long balls to take the AL home run record from Roger Maris during his 2022 AL MVP campaign. Judge finished just short with 58 home runs last year, but perhaps this year will be different. In order to reach 60 on the season, Judge will need to make a different kind of history: as noted by Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com last year, the record for home runs hit in September (and October, in seasons where it hosts regular season games) belongs jointly to Albert Belle and Babe Ruth. Judge would need to at least tie that duo’s 17 homers in the final month of the year in order to crack 60 long balls this year.
What do MLBTR readers think? Will the league enjoy a 60-homer campaign for the second time in four years this season? And if so, who is most likely to pull it off? Have your say in the polls below:
The fact we are even entertaining this kind of talk tells you all you need to know about major league pitching. But sure…go ahead and expand and let 52 more AAAA players into the league.
Not because they earned it but because these teams need to outfit themselves.
The problem isn’t a lack of talent. There’s plenty of talent, both pitching and position players to go around. It wasn’t as if, ‘back in the day’, every team sported 25 hall of famers on their roster.
The problem is the dispersal of said talent. Most of the talent can be found on a handful of teams on either coast.
Ah yes anti expansion, that’s the same mentality of being an isolationist like a certain businessman we all know
Id think Schwarber has the best chance. All he does is hit bombs in Delphia
Wth the way Cal has been hitting bombs. He would be the most obvious choice.
I think Ohtani could have if he didn’t start pitching but his offense has been inconsistent ever since. He will be silent for a handful of games and then all of sudden have a couple of homers in a game.
Cal hits 63 and schwarber hits 61 as both win the MVP in their leagues
Cal finds his swing again and gets hot to push the mariners to the playoffs while schwarber is historically strong after the all-star break and keeps hitting homers
Shohei hits 53 and dodgers barely win division while judge hits 57 as he gets out of his slump
Judge and Schwarber have the best chance since they both play at stadiums with very generous dimensions painted on the fences
Who is the best bunter
I’m going with Raleigh and Schwarber as sitting 10 and 11 away respectively with a month left to play isn’t out of the question. Judge would need 17 and Ohtani 15 and i just don’t see either getting the pitches to do it
I think both Cal and Kyle deserve to be MVP. However, Ohtani probably gets it and Cal over Judge. Judge injury again hurt his chances this year. Good luck next year, Captain.
Cal has the most so he obviously makes the most sense. But I wouldn’t put it past Schwarber. He hit the longest HR I have seen live in the NLCS. I think it’s still in the air.
Fun chase as long as the hitter, bats and balls are not juiced.