The playoff race in the American League figures to be a photo finish, with the AL East and AL West division titles both still up for grabs and four teams not currently in a postseason spot still within three games of the final AL Wild Card spot. By contrast, the National League looks very stable. Two of the league’s three division leaders have a lead of more than five games, and zero teams not already in the playoff picture are within three games of the final NL Wild Card spot. With just over 20 games left to play for every team, does that mean the NL playoff teams are set in stone? Let’s take a look at the state of the race:
The one place where the NL is within three games of a meaningful shift is the NL West, where the Dodgers hold a 2.5 game lead over the Padres. That division has been something of a dogfight for the whole second half. While the Dodgers were nine games up on their competition just two months ago, strong play from the Padres in conjunction with an aggressive trade deadline that saw the club bring in Mason Miller, Ramon Laureano, and Ryan O’Hearn (among others) was enough to push them back into contention. They even claimed sole possession of first place in the division twice during the month of August, though both of those stays at the top of the mountain were short-lived.
While it wasn’t long ago that the Padres were right there with the Dodgers in the NL West race, it’s becoming difficult to see them overtaking their rivals. A 7-12 record since Los Angeles kicked off a three-game sweep of San Diego on August 15 has left the Padres flailing, and while the Dodgers have gone just 7-8 since that series concluded, there are no regular season contests remaining between the two clubs during which the Padres can make up significant ground. If there’s one thing going for San Diego in this race, it’s the strength of the club’s schedule. Ten games left against the Rockies and White Sox should leave a huge number of winnable games for the Padres to capitalize on, while L.A. is faced with seven games against the surging Giants and a three-game set with the Phillies before wrapping the regular season in Seattle.
Speaking of the Giants, they’ve sneakily gone 9-1 in their last ten games and have won each of their last four series. With 7.5 games separating them and the Dodgers, they’d need to do exceptionally well in those final two series against Los Angeles to have any sort of shot at forcing their way back into the conversation for the division title. San Francisco’s surge could realistically put them into the NL Wild Card conversation if things continue trending in the right direction, however. Aside from those aforementioned seven games against the Dodgers, the Giants face sub-.500 teams in their other 15 games remaining on the schedule.
That could be a soft enough schedule to provide some intrigue headed into the season’s final weeks, though the 71-70 Giants certainly have their work cut out for them. The Reds sit one game back of them with a 70-70 record, but arguably have more control over their own destiny than San Francisco does thanks to back-to-back series against the Mets and Padres over the course of the next week. Winning both of those series would more seriously put Cincinnati in the conversation for a playoff berth, but that could prove to be a tall order. The Cardinals and Diamondbacks are both lurking around the periphery of the race as well, but with identical 70-71 records and exceptionally tough schedules this September, it’s tough to see either club mounting a comeback.
As for the other two divisions, the Phillies and Brewers more or less appear to have their divisions wrapped up at this point with 5.5- and 6.0-game leads, respectively. Perhaps the Phillies dropping their four-game set against the Mets in Philadelphia next week could reintroduce some intrigue into that race, but with the Cubs/Brewers season wrapped up and a soft September schedule in Milwaukee it would take a shocking collapse for the Brew Crew to fall out of the top spot in the NL Central.
What do MLBTR readers think about the state of the NL playoff race? Will any of the division titles change hands by the time the regular season comes to a close? Will a team like the Giants or Reds manage to worm their way into a postseason spot? Or will the playoff picture look more or less identical to today when the season comes to a close? Have your say in the polls below:
The Dodgers have given the Padres every chance to catch and pass them, but the Padres don’t seem very interested in doing so.
Don’t mind if we do!
Padres have had the runs the Giants are now. I would t put too much faith in Sleepy Bob.
Then don’t.
I feel for the Padres having the runs. Been there. The game’s tough enough without that.
The current division winners will stay put but the Wild Card race will be interesting I think.
The fact that padres lost 5 of 6 to 2 teams that gave up on their seasons at the deadline and yet are still only 2.5 games out of first is incredible
Dodgers have Rockies 1 Padres have them twice and white sox. Rest of schedule looks pretty even so padres have schedule advantage.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 48-44 since May 20, 2025
I’m interested in this race. Don’t remember it being so close.
tankathon.com/mlb
Giants are going to win their division. That line up is playing to potential, and if the relief corps can keep helping the rotation, they’ll be in great shape if they sweep the Dodgers next week.
I can understand the reason for enthusiasm with the Giants playing so well lately, the Dodgers playing flat, and seven (seven!) head-to-head games left between the two.
But even if the Giants win six of seven, as long as the Dodgers go 8-8 in their remaining 16 games, the Giants would still have to sustain their momentum enough to finish 10-5 with remaining non-Dodger games to end in a tie (which the Giants would win the tiebreaker). That’s a very tall order.
But it would be pretty cool to watch it happen.
As much as I would love to see the Giants win the division, unfortunately they aren’t even going to be a WC team. Catching the Mets is much more probable than catching the Dodgers, and that’s a long shot.
With 22 games for each to play, if the Mets win just half of those games, the Giants would have to go 16-6 to pass them. They can’t just tie because the Mets own the tiebreaker. As well as they’re playing, I just don’t see that happening.
As for the Dodgers, even if the Dodgers go 11-12 in their final 23, the Giants would have to go 22-4 just to tie. And the Giants would have to win 5 of the 6 head-to-head games remaining to own the tiebreaker. The Giants waited too long to turn things around.
Correction: …5 of the 7* head-to-head games remaining…
I mean I’m not optimistic about the Giants chances but the Mets have the Phillies to get through. They had it tough against the Tigers and the reds could give them a problem. I could see the Giants getting them IF they play to their potential
I’m not saying it’s impossible. The Giants are almost exactly where the Tigers were in 2024. So it is possible, but it also requires the Mets to go something like 7-14 as the Twins did.
And yes, the Mets play the Phillies, but the Giants have 7 against the Dodgers. The Dodgers haven’t been playing well, but they’re getting Muncy and Edman back off the IL.
The Giants can play up to their potential, and still not have that be enough. Whenever you need to have one team win, and another to lose, the odds aren’t good. The Giants don’t control their own destiny.
Sure is getting interesting. 🧐
The Mets are certainly doing their part. It’s a lot more probable for the Giants than it was a week ago.
The Giants aren’t winning their division in baseball or football…
Anything can happen but Mets Padres are better on paper. More importantly they have the payroll and star power that will sell in the playoffs so hope they make it.
When did the Giants lose a 70th game, and since when would that make them 1 game ahead of a 70-70 team? Do better in you standings data Nick.
You standings?
As opposed to you sittings.
I’ve been hoisted with my own petard. (Which was originally hosted with my own pretend)
With your own Picard? Make it so.
Just to be clear, there are many possible outcomes among the occurrences happening.
Clarity achieved!
I feel like things might occur in such a way that may be surprising to many, or at least some, possibly.
On the other hand, the possible results of both the probable, and improbable outcomes may, or may not, be as expected, or otherwise, unexpected.
That’s kind of exactly what I was thinking.
Seems like each team in a playoff position hasn’t played that well lately, but I don’t see any of them collapsing enough to give another team a chance to jump back in. Giants have played the best recently, but hard to imagine them sustaining it with 7 to go vs the Dodgers.. although they could do the funniest thing and beat the Dodgers enough to make things interesting.
As a Giants fan I have to agree, but I do think they could make trouble for the Dodgers and help the Pads. And, of course, that’s what I hope for.
Reds management blew their chance for them at the deadline (again) as we are now seeing.
No bullpen fortifications for a burned out group.
No full time corner outfielder with power.
Don’t expect anything to change, it hasn’t for many years.
#SelltheteamBob
I would have loved to help the reds and given them Conforto.
If the Giants keep up their winning-pace they could surprise us all!
Aside from Milwaukee, none of the current playoff teams are inspiring confidence in their fan bases. Me, I’m a Cubs fan. Am I confident they can make a World Series run? No. But then again, excepting Milwaukee, there’s no one else in the NL I’m confident in, either. Philly, maybe(?) but that could be just because I’m an ardent believer in Kyle Schwarber post-season magic. So, hey, why not my Cubs?
I think the standings will remain pretty much exactly as they are now, with the only exception being if the Giants fully embrace the role of chaos agent and make the NL West race very very very very very funny.
Giants are 71-69
they have not lost their 70th as article states.
Last year the Tigers showed how you can get hot and make the playoffs. In helped that the Twins folded but the Tigers went all out and won games. Don’t lose any game that you have the lead in and just win and good results happen. I think that the Giants can make the playoffs if they keep winning. I haven’t counted out Tampa Bay in the American league as they are getting hot at the right time. I thought for a while that the Marlins wanted to make things interesting but they lost to many close games. The Reds could have done the same but too many blown games. One more week will show us a better picture.
You discounted the most essential element of a hot team earning a post-season slot at the finish line… the team they’re chasing has to pretty much collapse at the same time. Last year, the Twins collapsing in September isn’t some minor detail. If Twins play .500 (or better) ball in September, the Tigers don’t overtake them.
It’s not enough for the Giants to just keep winning. The teams they’re chasing have to play far below expectations. Luckily for them, the Padres are cooperating.
It is true that other teams most cooperate by losing but the bottom line is still winning your own games. You can win a lot of games early in the year and ride that to the playoffs. The most successful teams will get hot the last 3 weeks of the season and continue that into the playoffs.
Are Padres Starting Rotation issues the sign of the beginning of an epic collapse or just a speed bump on the road to the playoffs?!
Some in Padres fandom are now worried and talking about the epic collapse of the Padres starting rotation as of late.
Breakdown of the San Diego Padres’ game-by-game results Mid August to September 2025 period:
August
August 18 vs. Giants: Lost, 4–3
August 19 vs. Giants: Won, 5–1
August 20 vs. Giants: Won, 8–1
August 21 vs. Giants: Won, 8–4
August 22 vs. Dodgers: Won, 2–1
August 23 vs. Dodgers: Won, 5–1
August 24 vs. Dodgers: Lost, 8–2
August 25 at Mariners: Lost, 9–6
August 26 at Mariners: Won, 7–6
August 27 at Mariners: Lost, 4–3
August 29 at Twins: Lost, 7–4
August 30 at Twins: Won, 12–3
August 31 at Twins: Lost, 7–2
The last 10 games the Padres are W2 L8
and they have lost 4 in a row including a sweep by the Orioles
AJ Preller’s trade deadline deals overpaid and seriously diminished the Padres much needed starting rotation depth:
Young promising Padres starters, Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek excelled this year at the back end of the Padres rotation. Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek have solidified the Royals rotation, are cost controlled for years and have helped KC become serious AL Wild Card Contender. It was too much to give up for a backup 2ndd string catcher like Freddie Fermin.
30 Days before the Trade Deadline, catcher James McCann was released by the Braves in adherence to his minor league contract opt out and then signed to a major league deal by the Dbacks.
The Padres were “‘asleep at the switch” since they could have signed Catcher James McCann to a major league contract without giving up two excellent young starters (Bergert and Kolek) who are missed very much from the end of the Padres rotation with all the Padres injury and underperformance issues in the Padres current rotation.
And, there is no evidence of any other team bidding for Fermin at the trade deadline. Preller and the Padres still could have acquired Fermin and substituted other starters at AAA and AA in the deal.
And the Fermin trade not only weakens the Padres 2026 starting rotation, but also for 2026 and beyond when the Padres will be losing at least 2 starters (Dylan Cease, Michael King etc…)
The Mason Miller deal was also a real “‘head scratcher”.
It looks like it was a trade for 2026 and beyond. Miller will undoubtedly be a great closer again in 2026 in SD.
As a starter, Miller had injury concerns and that is why the A’s moved him to their bullpen.
The Padres had 3 relievers selected to the 2025 All Star team and additional depth behind them.
Even when Suarez leaves at the end of the season with his “opt out”, the Padres had adequate bullpen depth to promote their next closer from within and not give up 3 more starting pitching depth pitchers to the A’s and their top prospect 18 year old future star SS Leo Devries who has already hit for cycle this year, plays stellar defense and is still only 18 years old. Devries has the talent to start in MLB in 2026 at the age of 19. The A’s have recently assigned De Vries to AA where he is playing very well.
The penny pinching A’s will, most likely keep Devries in the minors
until he is 21 or 22 to maximize his service time.
Devries could have been starting @ SS for the Padres sometime in mid 2026 or early 2027. Bogaerts could have been moved to 2B and Cronenworth to 1B.
Neither Nestor Cortez nor JP Sears are as good as the young pitching that Preller gave up in those two deals to the Royals and the A’s.
I give credit to AJ Preller and the Padres for the trade for O’Hearn and Laureano from the Orioles.
Without the addition of those two key players, the Padres would be much worse off and struggling to make the Wild Card.
It would be great if the Padres can “right the ship” and get hot in September and October.
But, the performance of the Padres rotation from mid August to the present, which was once the strength of the team along with the bullpen, is suddenly looking very questionable for making the playoffs and for a deep playoffs run in 2025.