The playoff race in the American League figures to be a photo finish, with the AL East and AL West division titles both still up for grabs and four teams not currently in a postseason spot still within three games of the final AL Wild Card spot. By contrast, the National League looks very stable. Two of the league’s three division leaders have a lead of more than five games, and zero teams not already in the playoff picture are within three games of the final NL Wild Card spot. With just over 20 games left to play for every team, does that mean the NL playoff teams are set in stone? Let’s take a look at the state of the race:
The one place where the NL is within three games of a meaningful shift is the NL West, where the Dodgers hold a 2.5 game lead over the Padres. That division has been something of a dogfight for the whole second half. While the Dodgers were nine games up on their competition just two months ago, strong play from the Padres in conjunction with an aggressive trade deadline that saw the club bring in Mason Miller, Ramon Laureano, and Ryan O’Hearn (among others) was enough to push them back into contention. They even claimed sole possession of first place in the division twice during the month of August, though both of those stays at the top of the mountain were short-lived.
While it wasn’t long ago that the Padres were right there with the Dodgers in the NL West race, it’s becoming difficult to see them overtaking their rivals. A 7-12 record since Los Angeles kicked off a three-game sweep of San Diego on August 15 has left the Padres flailing, and while the Dodgers have gone just 7-8 since that series concluded, there are no regular season contests remaining between the two clubs during which the Padres can make up significant ground. If there’s one thing going for San Diego in this race, it’s the strength of the club’s schedule. Ten games left against the Rockies and White Sox should leave a huge number of winnable games for the Padres to capitalize on, while L.A. is faced with seven games against the surging Giants and a three-game set with the Phillies before wrapping the regular season in Seattle.
Speaking of the Giants, they’ve sneakily gone 9-1 in their last ten games and have won each of their last four series. With 7.5 games separating them and the Dodgers, they’d need to do exceptionally well in those final two series against Los Angeles to have any sort of shot at forcing their way back into the conversation for the division title. San Francisco’s surge could realistically put them into the NL Wild Card conversation if things continue trending in the right direction, however. Aside from those aforementioned seven games against the Dodgers, the Giants face sub-.500 teams in their other 15 games remaining on the schedule.
That could be a soft enough schedule to provide some intrigue headed into the season’s final weeks, though the 71-70 Giants certainly have their work cut out for them. The Reds sit one game back of them with a 70-70 record, but arguably have more control over their own destiny than San Francisco does thanks to back-to-back series against the Mets and Padres over the course of the next week. Winning both of those series would more seriously put Cincinnati in the conversation for a playoff berth, but that could prove to be a tall order. The Cardinals and Diamondbacks are both lurking around the periphery of the race as well, but with identical 70-71 records and exceptionally tough schedules this September, it’s tough to see either club mounting a comeback.
As for the other two divisions, the Phillies and Brewers more or less appear to have their divisions wrapped up at this point with 5.5- and 6.0-game leads, respectively. Perhaps the Phillies dropping their four-game set against the Mets in Philadelphia next week could reintroduce some intrigue into that race, but with the Cubs/Brewers season wrapped up and a soft September schedule in Milwaukee it would take a shocking collapse for the Brew Crew to fall out of the top spot in the NL Central.
What do MLBTR readers think about the state of the NL playoff race? Will any of the division titles change hands by the time the regular season comes to a close? Will a team like the Giants or Reds manage to worm their way into a postseason spot? Or will the playoff picture look more or less identical to today when the season comes to a close? Have your say in the polls below:
The Dodgers have given the Padres every chance to catch and pass them, but the Padres don’t seem very interested in doing so.
The current division winners will stay put but the Wild Card race will be interesting I think.
The fact that padres lost 5 of 6 to 2 teams that gave up on their seasons at the deadline and yet are still only 2.5 games out of first is incredible
Dodgers have Rockies 1 Padres have them twice and white sox. Rest of schedule looks pretty even so padres have schedule advantage.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 48-44 since May 20, 2025
I’m interested in this race. Don’t remember it being so close.
tankathon.com/mlb
Giants are going to win their division. That line up is playing to potential, and if the relief corps can keep helping the rotation, they’ll be in great shape if they sweep the Dodgers next week.
I can understand the reason for enthusiasm with the Giants playing so well lately, the Dodgers playing flat, and seven (seven!) head-to-head games left between the two.
But even if the Giants win six of seven, as long as the Dodgers go 8-8 in their remaining 16 games, the Giants would still have to sustain their momentum enough to finish 10-5 with remaining non-Dodger games to end in a tie (which the Giants would win the tiebreaker). That’s a very tall order.
But it would be pretty cool to watch it happen.
Anything can happen but Mets Padres are better on paper. More importantly they have the payroll and star power that will sell in the playoffs so hope they make it.
When did the Giants lose a 70th game, and since when would that make them 1 game ahead of a 70-70 team? Do better in you standings data Nick.
You standings?
Just to be clear, there are many possible outcomes among the occurrences happening.
Clarity achieved!
Seems like each team in a playoff position hasn’t played that well lately, but I don’t see any of them collapsing enough to give another team a chance to jump back in. Giants have played the best recently, but hard to imagine them sustaining it with 7 to go vs the Dodgers.. although they could do the funniest thing and beat the Dodgers enough to make things interesting.
Reds management blew their chance for them at the deadline (again) as we are now seeing.
No bullpen fortifications for a burned out group.
No full time corner outfielder with power.
Don’t expect anything to change, it hasn’t for many years.
#SelltheteamBob
If the Giants keep up their winning-pace they could surprise us all!
Aside from Milwaukee, none of the current playoff teams are inspiring confidence in their fan bases. Me, I’m a Cubs fan. Am I confident they can make a World Series run? No. But then again, excepting Milwaukee, there’s no one else in the NL I’m confident in, either. Philly, maybe(?) but that could be just because I’m an ardent believer in Kyle Schwarber post-season magic. So, hey, why not my Cubs?
I think the standings will remain pretty much exactly as they are now, with the only exception being if the Giants fully embrace the role of chaos agent and make the NL West race very very very very very funny.
Giants are 71-69
they have not lost their 70th as article states.