Here are three things to keep an eye on around baseball this weekend…
1. Trout chasing 400:
Mike Trout belted the 399th home run of his illustrious career last night, placing him just one round-tripper shy of becoming the 59th player in MLB history to reach the 400 milestone. Trout, currently in a three-way tie with Andres Galarraga and Al Kaline on the all-time leaderboard, is hitting .235/.368/.426 (119 wRC+) and has already secured the tenth 20-homer season of his career (plus 17 homers during the shortened 2020 season). He’ll square off against Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo and George Kirby this weekend as he looks to add another accolade to what’s already a surefire Cooperstown résumé.
2. Senga on the mound for Syracuse:
The Mets optioned Kodai Senga to Triple-A Syracuse last week upon calling up top prospect Brandon Sproat, hoping to get the former Cy Young runner-up back on track. Senga posted a 6.56 ERA over eight starts after returning from a monthlong IL stint due to a hamstring strain. His season ERA still sits at 3.02, but his mounting struggles at a time when the Mets are fighting for their postseason life became too severe for the team to ignore. Senga will make the first of what’ll be multiple Triple-A starts (barring an injury in the big league rotation) later today when he takes on the Red Sox’ Worcester affiliate in a game slated to begin at 6:35pm ET. Home runs (2.02 HR/9) and walks (12.9%) have been particularly problematic for Senga during this poor stretch, so it’ll be worth keeping a close eye on how the right-hander commands the ball during what the Mets hope will be a swift Triple-A reset.
3. Key Wild Card series abound:
The Mets have lost six in a row, shrinking their Wild Card lead to a mere 1.5 games over both the Giants and Reds. Things won’t get easier for the Mets, as they’ll be tasked with stopping their September swoon in a matchup with old friend Jacob deGrom, who’s pitched to a resurgent 2.78 ERA, 27.9% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate in 155 2/3 innings this year. The Rangers are in Queens for a three-game set that also has major implications in the AL Wild Card hunt as well; Texas sits just two games back of an also-reeling Astros club that is now tied with the Mariners for first place in the AL West.
Elsewhere in the NL Wild Card scramble, the Giants have a tough task keeping their hopes alive, as they’ll host the Dodgers for a three-game set pitting them against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Glasnow, each of whom has an ERA south of 3.30 on the season. The Reds, meanwhile, travel to West Sacramento to take on the A’s in a three-game series where they’ll face righties J.T. Ginn, Luis Severino and Luis Morales.
Both the D-backs and Guardians can keep their faint playoff hopes alive with series wins over retooling AL Central clubs; Arizona hosts the Twins for a three-game set, while Cleveland hosts the White Sox. The Diamondbacks have pulled to within three games of the Mets (though they’d also need to leapfrog the Giants and Reds). The Guards are 3.5 games back in the American League. The Cardinals are still within four games of an NL spot, but they’d likely need to sweep the Brewers in Milwaukee this weekend to truly stay afloat.
Minor note: the Twins are the home team vs. Arizona
Major Note: The Yankees are playing the Red Sox in a battle for the top WC spot.
Correction: The Yankees are playing the Red Sox in a battle for the top AL East spot.
(Red Sox can have the top WC spot :p)
Blue Jays have something to say about that.
Put it in the YS suggestion box. Thank you! /s
YBC – I don’t think anyone is catching the Jays!
Between the three teams, if the Sox are close or ahead going into the last weekend of the season, they will have a big advantage.
Because the Sox are playing the Tigers, who will have absolutely no incentive to try and win. They will be resting their best pitchers (Skubal etc) and they will be resting their starting position players a lot.
Whereas the Jays and Yanks will be playing divisional rivals looking to be spoilers.
I’m aware. The Jays own the tiebreaker on the Yankees so they effectively have to be a game up on them for top seed.
YBC – Was that your Costanza impersonation? ;O)
The Tigers won’t need to rest Skubal since they’ll likely have a bye and 4 days off built in, but they will likely shorten his outing. So they’ll want him to pitch some to stay sharp.
Are Cincy and SF fans thinking how are our clubs still realistically in this thing for final WC spot….thank you Mets?
Yes, Cincy and SF are in with a shout. Reds hold a 3-way tie-breaker vs. Mets/Giants and 2-way tie-breaker vs. Mets. Giants hold 2-way tie-breakers vs. Reds (as it stands) but not vs. Mets.
Speaking of whom, NYM got swept out of Philadelphia to drop the Fightins’ magic number to 5. Phillies can clinch NL East as early as Sunday.
Mike Trout. He accomplished so much. I like to imagine how much more he could have done if not for all the IL time.
@Butters
Honestly, it doesn’t matter about ‘what ifs’. This is his career and he is still considered one of the top players during his career and he still has some years left. Enjoy watching him right now. He looks like he’s already locked into the HOF.
Yes , what you say is fact.top player of a generation , most likely HOF bound, However I still like to imagine how much more he’d have accomplished,IF,he wasn’t on the IL for all that time.
Trout is the modern Mickey Mantle, I mean he’s probably got 3 or 4 years left and I expect he will get over 500 homers. They said the same thing about Mantle and Ken Griffey Jr.
Butters – Imagine Ted Williams’ numbers if he hadn’t spent all that time playing around in two wars ……
Or Willie Mays, in army for a year at his peak and then at Candlestick, which killed right handed power, for over ten years.
@Fever Pitch Guy
One of my favorite Mexican players of all time.
@ FPG: Yep, Man sure did like a good fight.
Same. Reminds me of Griffey Jr. in the back half of his career.
Griffey and Trout also lost essentially a season of plate appearances in their prime due to a lockout/covid.
That’s not factually true about Griffey. He lost more time in ’95 to a fractured wrist than he did to the ’94 strike
Almost all players deal with some kind of significant injury at some point, so the missed games in 2017 is normal. Just like it’s not realistic to assume griffey jr should have been averaging 150 games his entire career. If you assume he averaged 150 games played 2020-2024 (which is more than average for an age 28-32 player), then he missed around 430 games. That’s assuming no significant injuries during that time, which would be better health than average. Natural performance decline also has to be factored, it’s not realistic to assume he should still be hitting .300+ into his 30s. He would probably be around 500 HR, 300 SB, 100 WAR at this point. Significantly better, but not dramatically better.
In fact, griffey jr is 36th (fitting) all time in terms of most games played in the history of MLB. The notion of griffey jr’s career being a ‘what if’ situation is ridiculous. People assume he should have been averaging 150 games played from ages 31-40 and they also don’t factor natural performance decline. Totally unrealistic. In fact, griffey jr’s natual performance decline began at age 28. he was never going to hit more than around 700 HR, he never had a real chance of breaking the all time HR record.
Trout has already produced greater career value than griffey jr, in 4,000 fewer PA. Much, much better player than griffey jr.
griffey jr was already in major decline before playing his first game for the Reds. he definitely wasn’t a superstar anymore by that point, in terms of actual performance. he sucked in the outfield after 1998, aside from his first season with the Reds, his running ability went down the toilet after 1999, his ability to hit for average plummeted after 2001.
griffey jr sucked as a player (and of course also as a person in general as he always has, but that’s an aside) ages 31-40. No matter how you look at it, he sucked. 1.2 WAR average per 162 games and an average of 0.8 WAR of actual production. Unsurprisingly, that means that griffey jr, who is 36th all time in most games played in MLB history, produced 66.6% of his 162 game average from ages 31-40. Fitting.
AL West race may come down to the final weekend. But that’s completely normative behavior for this division going back to 2022. I’m stocking up on Tums, alcoholic beverages,and Meals Ready to Eat so I don’t have to get out of my chair.
@Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Go Mariners! I’d like to see them win a world series and then you can be happy.
At this point the Mariners just getting to the World Series would probably make a lot of people happy
I would be overcome with joy, along with experiencing a deep and profound sense of happiness.
York – I’d like to see them win a World Series so we can see Big Dumper jump into some unlucky pitcher’s arms.
“Senga will make the first of what’ll be multiple Triple-A starts (barring an injury in the big league rotation) later today..”
“…during what the Mets hope will be a swift Triple-A reset.”
Umm…
Remember the clocks go back an hour. That makes things happen faster.
He can only make two starts unless the Syracuse Mets make the playoffs. The International League changes its playoff format almost every year, so I can’t figure out how their playoffs would look.
That may be all that he needs along with side bullpen sessions for something to click. He’s not down there for rehab.
Trout is the most overrated player of all time. He is not babe ruth. He is not ted williams. He did not deserve 3 mvps. Overall #s will get him into HOF.
Here we go with the stat nerds. His -xfip or his war+ or wtvr fantasy baseball stats you nerds use to determine talent. He had a few great years, very exciting player. But he’s always hurt. And now completely washed up. Even at his peak he’s not even ohtani or judge level talent
In his first 8 seasons before the injuries completely took over it was hard to argue that you wouldn’t be talking about Trout in the same category as Ruth or Williams or any of the all-time greats because of the numbers he was putting up. 280 of his Home Runs came in that stretch as well as almost 200 Stolen Bases. 8 time All Star, 7 Silver Sluggers, plus the 3 MVP’s (deserved or not).
I’m not Trout’s biggest fan by any means and I’ve always said that Trout’s career would probably follow Andruw Jones: come up at 19, dominate through his 20’s and crater at 30 and that’s basically what has happened
@chandlerbong – Actually, those that watched him play (not simply the analytics driven) were also calling him one of the greatest ever. Truly a 5 tool stud that could do it all as an elite CF (shades of Willie Mays – one of my all-time favorite players). He was on pace to be in that top ten in history before the injury breakdowns – now, he is a surefire HoF but the lost time and production in the latter half of his career will clearly impact the legacy.
Not sure why you seem to have an axe to grind here.
He’s not as good as Babe Ruth or Ted Williams, but he’s still a top 25 player in the entire history of the sport.
Trout just turned 34. To put it bluntly, unless he’s playing hurt, he should be producing at a much higher clip than he is. I hope this isn’t him going forward.
At his age and with his injury history, I think he will be nursing some sort of pain/discomfort the rest of his career. This seems to be the mid 30s version of him unfortunately
Since chandlerbing muted me
“His -xfip or his war+ or wtvr fantasy”
Let me translate this: “I don’t understand modern stats”
“He did not deserve 3 mvps.”
He deserved more
“And now completely washed up”
His batting line this year is 20% better than average
The Trout debate is fascinating. He was a probable inner circle HOF at his peak. The injuries took a great deal from him. The comparison to Mantle? I don’t know–Mantle has 110 BWAR, Trout has 87. Mantle has about 2,000 more PA–should Trout actually get 2000 more, and hold serve on production, (with ordinary aging curves) he could match Mantle’s numbers in the last five years he’s got on his contract. But who knows? Mantle’s last standout season was his age 32 one. His last four were somewhat productive (13WAR). Maybe the follow the same arc
The Mantle comparisons are based on what he looked and still looks like at times as a player. Fast, strong, did it all, great baserunner, great arm, great fielder. Injuries the only thing that kept him from marching Mantle, and injuries (and stupid lifestyle—but he thought he was genetically destined to die young and ignored his own health while he played) kept Mantle from a level above what he achieved.
Trout 100% HOF! He needs to drop about 15 lbs and stay healthy if he wants 500 HR!
“Meanwhile” has to begin the sentence, not come in the middle between commas.