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White Sox, Red Sox Among Teams With Interest In Munetaka Murakami

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NPB slugger Munetaka Murakami’s posting window closes at 4pm CT time on December 22. With just over a day left for Murakami to sign with an MLB club, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the White Sox are among the teams that are presently engaged in talks with the slugger’s camp. Chris Cotillo of MassLive adds that the Red Sox have “kicked the tires” on Murakami, as well as fellow NPB infielder Kazuma Okamoto. Okamoto’s posting window closes on January 4.

Murakami’s time on the market has been unusually quiet for a player of his status. These reports of interest on the part of Chicago and Boston are the first significant reports tying Murakami to any of MLB’s 30 teams, as his representation has seemingly played things very close to the vest regarding his market. The 25-year-old has surely received interest from other clubs as well that has simply gone unreported, of course, but Murakami’s market doesn’t seem to be quite as strong as expected even when factoring in that reality.

Geoff Pontes of Baseball America suggested in an appearance on Foul Territory this past week that the slugger’s market has been “softer” than he and his representation were expecting entering the offseason. MLBTR ranked Murakami as the #4 free agent on the market this winter, predicting an eight-year, $180MM contract for the young slugger as part of our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. That ranking accounts for Murakami’s top-of-the-scale power and extreme youth heading into free agency; Yoshinobu Yamamoto was just six months younger than Murakami when he landed a $325MM contract from the Dodgers, while the fact that Juan Soto was headed into his age-26 season was a key factor in him landing a record-shattering $765MM deal last winter.

With that said, Murakami’s low contact rates have raised some eyebrows around the baseball world since his posting, and it’s not hard to see why. The Athletic’s Eno Sarris illustrated the concerns with Murakami’s lack of contact in NPB by sharing a list of players with comparable contact rates and exit velocities in the majors in recent years. The resulting group includes some stars like Nick Kurtz (and Shohei Ohtani if the parameters adjusted to be somewhat more favorable to Murakami), but it includes a far larger group of middling players, ranging from decent regulars like Matt Wallner to early-career flame-outs like Aristides Aquino. There’s certainly reasons to believe Murakami will be a great deal better than those players, of course; his raw production in NPB is nothing short of otherworldly. Even so, the risk in the young slugger’s profile is real, and it’s not necessarily a shock that teams might shy away from giving him a massive contract until and unless he can prove his style of play works at the big league level.

Turning to the clubs with reported interest in Murakami, the White Sox are a very interesting fit. The slugger is certainly young enough to be part of the next competitive team on the south side; he’s just two years older than star rookies Colson Montgomery and Kyle Teel. That makes him an intriguing fit for the Sox, especially if he signs with the club on a long-term deal. Miguel Vargas and Lenyn Sosa are the club’s projected starters at the infield corners at the moment, but neither player is locked in strongly enough to prevent the addition of Murakami.

A short-term deal could also be possible, as well; the White Sox signed Erick Fedde to a two-year deal two winters ago and rode a strong first half to secure a three-way trade involving Fedde that brought back Vargas. A similar approach could be employed here as well, at least in theory. Chicago might be a particularly appealing destination for the young slugger given their lack of competitive expectations this year; it could allow him the opportunity to make necessary adjustments at the big league level without the pressure of a pennant race, and perhaps the White Sox would be more comfortable than most clubs trying Murakami at third base despite widespread concerns about his ability at the position.

As for the Red Sox, Murakami could provide the sort of elite slugger than the Red Sox lost when they traded away Rafael Devers over the summer. That makes the fit between the sides plausible, but there are certainly questions and obstacles as well. For one, the Red Sox are entering a clear win-now window after making the playoffs last year, and might not be willing to play Murakami through any struggles that could come with his adjustment to the majors. For another, the Red Sox are already extremely left-handed and have Triston Casas in-house as a first base/DH option with plenty of upside in his own right. Boston would need to be confident that Murakami would be a substantial upgrade over Casas in order to commit significant dollars to him for the same role.

While a pursuit of Murakami from Boston can’t be ruled out, the quote from Cotillo about Boston “kicking the tires” on the slugger suggests more of a reserved approach to his market. That’s an understandable path to take, particularly given that Okamoto could be a better fit. Okamoto is older than Murakami and lacks his countryman’s elite power, but he’s enjoyed a much more steady career in NPB without contact rate concerns, offers more playable defensive skills at third base, and is a right-handed hitter who more effectively complements the Red Sox lineup. That solid fit is part of why the Red Sox have been linked to Okamoto on occasion throughout the winter, even as they pursue a reunion with third baseman Alex Bregman.

Blue Jays Interested In Kazuma Okamoto

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Kazuma Okamoto’s posting window closes in four weeks’ time, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the six-time NPB All-Star is getting “big interest” from Major League teams.  The Pirates and Red Sox have already been linked to Okamoto’s market, and Heyman reports that the Blue Jays are also showing interest.

Okamoto was mostly a third baseman during his time with the Yomiuri Giants, but he also logged a good deal of time as a first baseman and corner outfielder.  While he wouldn’t get much time at first base in Toronto due to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s presence, Okamoto’s defensive utility undoubtedly has some appeal to a Blue Jays team that likes to mix and match around its lineup.  Third base would probably be Okamoto’s primary position in Toronto, yet his ability to also work in the corner outfield could make him something of a right-handed hitting version of Addison Barger, who is expected to continue operating as a third baseman/right fielder depending on what other winter moves the Jays end up completing.

Bo Bichette naturally looms as the biggest question mark hanging over the Blue Jays’ infield, as Toronto remains engaged with the former All-Star about a reunion.  If Bichette re-signs, it might make the infield a little too crowded for Okamoto as well, since that would have the ripple effect of pushing Barger into more or less everyday outfield duty, and leave little playing time for the likes of Ernie Clement or Nathan Lukes.  Likewise, if the Jays were to sign another prime offseason target like Kyle Tucker, that pushes Barger into more of a third base role, making Okamoto then redundant.

Trades could alter the roster situation, of course, but whatever team signs Okamoto would surely have designs on him as more than just a part-time player.  MLB Trade Rumors ranked Okamoto 19th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and projected a four-year, $64MM deal for the 29-year-old.  This contract doesn’t factor in the posting fee a big league team would also owe to the Giants, which hinges on the size of Okamoto’s deal — a $64MM contract would translate to an $11.5MM posting free, for instance.

Okamoto has 248 home runs and an outstanding .277/.361/.521 slash line over his career in Japan, though there are always questions about how exactly hitters will adjust in the move from NPB to MLB.  In Okamoto’s case in particular, Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen raised some concerns over how the infielder will adjust to the higher velocities of big league pitching, as Okamoto has been inconsistent against pitches over 94mph.

The Blue Jays are broadly an “in on everyone” team that at least checks in on pretty much every available free agent or trade target every winter.  It could be that their interest in Okamoto is an extension of his due diligence, since Okamoto wouldn’t be as clean a fit on Toronto’s roster as other winter targets.

That said, the Jays have already added Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce to the rotation, and their continued explorations into other big-ticket names indicates that Toronto is prepared to be even more aggressive after coming so close to a World Series title in 2025.  The Blue Jays also have a longstanding interest in trying to establish themselves amongst Japanese players and fans, which has involved failed pursuits of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki in the past.

Red Sox Interested In Pete Alonso, Kazuma Okamoto

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The Red Sox are looking to bolster the lineup. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Sox are considering signing one or maybe two of Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, Kazuma Okamoto, J.T. Realmuto and Alex Bregman. MLBTR covered the club’s interest in Schwarber and Realmuto earlier this month. Bregman was with the Sox in 2025 and team employees often complimented him for his skills and leadership abilities, so it’s unsurprising that they would want him back.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow admitted earlier this month that the Sox would be looking for front-of-the-rotation starter and a middle-of-the-order bat this winter. While some Boston fans weren’t thrilled with the move, the Sox feel they ticked off the first box by acquiring Sonny Gray from the Cardinals this week. After the Gray trade, it was reported that the Sox would be shifting their focus to the lineup.

There are certain spots on the field where it’s easier for the Sox to add. They appear to be set in the outfield, so much so that a trade to clear out some space feels inevitable. Masataka Yoshida is perhaps slated to be something like an everyday designated hitter at the moment, though it’s possible a trade of him or another outfielder will open that spot a bit more. On the infield, Trevor Story is going to be back at shortstop.

The infield corners are more open. With Bregman opting out of his deal, third base is free. The Sox could fill that spot internally with Marcelo Mayer but he could also take over at second base. Triston Casas is a possibility at first but the Sox likely don’t want to rely on him after a 2025 wherein he struggled before suffering a season-ending knee injury.

Alonso is one of the better power bats in the league. He has been good for about 40 homers per full season, give or take a few, throughout his career. He just hit 38 bombs this year. His 8.6% walk rate was a career low but his .272 batting average a career high. Put it all together and he slashed .272/.347/.524 for a 141 wRC+, the eighth-best wRC+ tally among qualified hitters in the majors this year.

Despite his skills with the bat, his market is unclear. He’s not a great defender and he’s not a burner on the basepaths. He was a free agent a year ago, coming off a lesser platform season, and didn’t find the long-term deal he was looking for. He returned to the Mets on a two-year, $54MM deal with an opt-out halfway through.

After putting together a better season at the plate, he opted out to take another crack at finding that elusive long-term deal. He is reportedly hoping to get a seven-year commitment this winter. That’s an ambitious ask for a guy who is about to turn 31 and isn’t known for his athleticism, though he is apparently willing to spend more time as a DH going forward. MLBTR predicted him for a four-year, $110MM deal.

Alonso would undoubtedly add some thump to the Boston lineup. The fact that he hits right-handed should also be attractive, since the current group skews to the left side. The question will be if they can line up on a price. There’s still belief in some circles that the Mets and Alonso could reunite again, though he presumably has interest from plenty of other clubs as well, in addition to the Red Sox.

RosterResource estimates the Sox currently have a competitive balance tax number of $223MM, a little more than $20MM below next year’s $244MM base threshold. They have been willing to occasionally pax the tax in recent years. It appears they went a bit over the line in 2025. Perhaps reaching the postseason and developing a young core will convince ownership to push spending a bit higher in 2026.

Okamoto would be more of a wild card since he doesn’t yet have major league experience, but he’s also plenty interesting. From 2018 to 2024, he hit at least 27 home runs in each season for the Yomiuri Giants of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. In 2025, he was limited by injuries to just 69 games but had his best performance on a rate basis. He hit 15 homers in that time and slashed .327/.416/.598 for a 210 wRC+.

Defensively, he has primarily been a third baseman in Japan but has also spent a decent amount of time at first with brief stints in left field. Some scouts believe he can handle third base in the big leagues for a while but others feel he would be better off at first. He’s currently 29 years old and will turn 30 at the end of June. Like Alonso, he swings from the right side and would be a good fit for the lefty-heavy lineup.

There’s always a risk that a wild card player like this won’t be able to adjust to the major leagues as hoped. This is something that Boston fans know well, having watched Yoshida struggle lately. But Okamoto has plenty of appeal. MLBTR predicted he could land a four-year, $64MM deal, which doesn’t include the posting fee which would be owed to the Giants. He has already been connected to the Pirates but should have lots of other suitors as well.

If the Sox end up adding a player who projects to spend a lot of time at first, it would presumably increase the chances of Casas ending up on the trade block. He has already been in plenty of trade rumors over the years. As mentioned, the DH spot is already a bit crowded, so it would be hard for Casas and someone like Alonso to co-exist on the same roster.

Casas still has options and could technically be sent to the minors but he’s overqualified to be a depth piece. From 2022 to 2024, he hit 42 home runs in 840 plate appearances. His 26.9% strikeout rate was a bit high but he drew walks at an excellent 14.2% pace. Overall, he hit .250/.357/.473 for a 127 wRC+. His 2025 saw him put up a dismal .182/.277/.303 line but that was in a tiny sample of 112 plate appearances and with a .217 batting average on balls in play. His walk rate had dropped to 9.8% but he also improved his strikeout rate to 24.1%.

It would be understandable if the Sox don’t want to bank on Casas after those struggles and the surgery to address the ruptured patellar tendon in his left knee. But if they replace him with a more reliable option like Alonso, then it would make sense to flip Casas for pitching or some other upgrade. He is still controllable for three seasons and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest $1.7MM salary next year. MLBTR listed Casas 24th on our list of the Top 40 Trade Candidates at the start of the season.

Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images

Latest On Pirates’ Offseason Pursuits

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The Pirates are looking to upgrade their offense for next year and are seemingly casting a wide net. They reportedly made a run at Josh Naylor before he re-signed with the Mariners and have been connected to free agent Kyle Schwarber. Per a report from Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic, they are also considering free agents such as Jorge Polanco, Kazuma Okamoto and Ryan O’Hearn. They have also checked in with the Cardinals about trade candidates Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Gorman.

It’s been a long time since the Pirates have been big players in the offseason but recent reporting has suggested they could be more active this winter, at least relatively speaking. No one is expecting them to suddenly be a player for someone like Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette but there is some smoke suggesting they could push things further than in the past. They’ve still never given a free agent a guarantee larger than the three years and $39MM they gave to Francisco Liriano over a decade ago. Their most recent multi-year deal for a free agent was two years for Ivan Nova in 2016.

It’s a low bar to clear but it’s possible the Bucs set new benchmarks in those categories. Per The Athletic, it’s possible that is related to the upcoming expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement. The CBA is up just over a year from now and teams may want to look like they are spending their revenue sharing money, in order to keep receiving it in the next CBA. However, the report suggests this is likely more of an issue for the Marlins than the Bucs since Pittsburgh got their competitive balance tax number over $105MM in 2025. That was the target for the A’s in 2025 as they looked to increase their CBT number in order to avoid a grievance from the MLBPA.

Even if the CBA stuff isn’t relevant, there are plenty of straightforward baseball reasons for the Pirates to get more aggressive. They haven’t made the postseason since 2015 and haven’t finished above .500 since 2018. They have a strong collection of controllable and affordable starting pitchers. The group is headlined by Paul Skenes, who is controlled for four more seasons, but he’s just a year away from arbitration and the associated salary increases. Konnor Griffin is considered by some to be the top prospect in the sport right now. He reached Double-A this year and could make his big league debut in 2026, even though he doesn’t turn 20 years old until April.

Put it all together and there’s a good case that now is the time to strike. Upgrading the offense is an obvious goal. The team had a collective .231/.305/.350 batting line in 2025. That resulted in an 82 wRC+, putting them ahead of just the Rockies among MLB clubs. Spencer Horwitz was the only guy on the team to post a wRC+ higher than 101. They have a lot of work to do but a lot of ways they can add.

Polanco has spent many years as a strong bat who can play the infield. He had an injury-marred 2024 but bounced back with the Mariners in 2025. He hit 26 home runs and slashed .265/.326/.495 for a 132 wRC. Early in the year, the Mariners frequently kept him in the designated hitter slot, as it seemed he wasn’t 100% recovered from his knee surgery. However, later in the year, he was playing second base fairly regularly.

MLBTR predicted Polanco could secure a three-year, $42MM deal this offseason. That would surpass the aforementioned Liriano deal, but only barely. The Bucs have Horwitz at first base but their infield is fairly open apart from that. As mentioned, Griffin coming up in 2026 to take over shortstop is a possibility but probably not something to be banked on today. Otherwise, Pittsburgh has a cluster of multi-positional infield guys like Jared Triolo, Nick Gonzales, Nick Yorke, Tsung-Che Cheng and Enmanuel Valdéz.

Polanco would be an obvious upgrade over the guys in that cluster, who could each end up in utility roles or optioned to the minors. However, he’s sure to have interest elsewhere. For instance, the Mariners are known to want to bring him back.

O’Hearn wouldn’t be as smooth of a fit. He’s best suited to be a first baseman, where the Bucs have Horwitz. The designated hitter spot is open right now, though it’s possible the Pirates and Andrew McCutchen circle back to each other later. O’Hearn can play a bit of outfield and the Bucs do have room there next to Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds, so perhaps there’s a way to make it work.

He is coming off a three-year run wherein he slashed .277/.343/.445 for a 121 wRC+. That’s a strong stretch but he’s a tad on the older side for a position player free agent since he’s 32. MLBTR predicted he could secure a two-year, $26MM deal. If that proves to be correct, the Bucs wouldn’t even have to stretch into uncharted waters to get it done.

Okamoto is a bit more of a wild card since he’s coming over from Japan and isn’t proven as a major leaguer but reports suggest he should be a viable big league bat. He hit at least 27 home runs in seven straight seasons of Nippon Professional Baseball from 2018 to 2024. In 2025, he was limited by injury to just 69 games but still hit 15 homers and slashed .327/.416/.598 for a 210 wRC+. There are mixed opinions about whether he can stick at third base or if he’s destined to move to first.

MLBTR predicted him to land a four-year, $64MM deal. The signing club will also owe a posting fee to the Yomiuri Giants, relative to the size of the guarantee. If he does secure a $64MM deal, the posting fee would be $11.5MM. Put those two figures together and the Bucs might have to double their commitment to Liriano to get something done here.

As for the guys in St. Louis, the Cardinals are known to be entering a rebuilding phase. They kicked things off by dealing Sonny Gray to the Red Sox today, the first of several seller moves expected from that club this offseason. Donovan and Nootbaar are each controlled for another two years. Assuming the Cards don’t expect to return to contention in that window, it makes sense to listen on both. Gorman is controlled for three more seasons but is also less established as a viable big leaguer, so the Cards probably aren’t clinging to him too tightly.

Since he is a strong hitter and can play multiple positions, Donovan makes sense as a target for almost every team. He’s already been publicly connected to the Astros, Royals and Guardians but that’s presumably not an exhaustive list of his suitors. He has hit .282/.361/.411 for a 119 wRC+ in his career while playing all four infield spots and the outfield corners. He underwent sports hernia surgery at the end of the 2025 season but is expected to be fine by spring training.

Nootbaar doesn’t have Donovan’s versatility, as he’s just an outfielder. His bat is enticing but he’s coming off a down year and his health status is more questionable. From 2022 to 2024, he slashed .246/.351/.426 for a wRC+ of 118. In 2025, he dropped to a .234/.325/.361 line and 96 wRC+. He recently underwent surgery to shave down Haglund’s deformities on both heels and may not be fully recuperated by the start of 2026.

Gorman has real power and can take his walks but also has problems with strikeouts. He has 74 home runs in his 1,581 plate appearances but has also been punched out at an untenable 34% clip. Since the start of 2024, he has a .204/.284/.385 line and 87 wRC+. He has mostly played second base but has had a lot of time at third as well, in addition to brief showings at first and in left field.

Donovan is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to make just $5.4MM next year, with Nootbaar projected for $5.7MM and Gorman $2.9MM. That makes them all more affordable than the free agent options but the Bucs would also have to send prospects the other way.

It can sometimes be difficult to pull off trades among teams who share a division but the Bucs don’t seem to mind. They recently lined up a notable deal with the Reds, sending Ke’Bryan Hayes to Cincinnati ahead of the deadline. If the Cards aren’t going to contend for the next few years, perhaps they wouldn’t be bothered if their former players are in Pittsburgh during that window.

Photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images

Kazuma Okamoto To Be Posted November 19th

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It’s been known for nearly a month now that NPB infielder Kazuma Okamoto is set to be posted by the Yomiuri Giants this winter, but a report from Nikkan Sports (Japanese language link) this morning provided a bit more specificity regarding Okamoto’s timeline. He’ll be officially posted tomorrow, on November 19th, and that will kick off a 45-day window for teams to negotiate with Okamoto, who is represented by Scott Boras of the Boras Corporation.

That’s the same posting date as right-hander Tatsuya Imai, a fellow Boras client. Boras told reporters (including those at Nikkan Sports) that the pair would follow the same approximate timeline. They’ll be posted tomorrow before traveling to the United States in early December. That sets them up to be in the country in time to begin negotiations with clubs ahead of this year’s Winter Meetings, which are set to run from December 7 through December 10 this year. The posting window for both Okamoto and Imai is set to end in early January, but it would not be a surprise to see the pair to sign before the holidays given the slowdown of activity around that time.

Turning back to Okamoto specifically, the 29-year-old is coming off a strong season in 2025 that was abbreviated by an elbow injury. While he only played in 69 games, he managed to slash .327/.416/.598 with 15 homers and 21 doubles in just 293 trips to the plate. He also showed strong contact ability and plate discipline with 11.3% strikeout and walk rates. That’s an unusually low strikeout rate by his standards, but even his 17.7% clip since the start of the 2018 season is nothing to scoff at. Impressive as Okamoto’s career .277/.361/.521 slash line in Central League play is, however, it’s worth remembering that NPB pitchers often lack the same high-end velocity that has become routine in MLB. Some scouting reports, including that of Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, have noted that Okamoto’s numbers suffer against mid-90s and higher velocity. Of course, that’s also a flaw that can improve with great exposure to those types of pitches.

Okamoto has spent plenty of time at both infield corners over the years, and there’s been some debate about his fit defensively in the majors. He’s generally viewed as more capable of sticking long-term at the hot corner than fellow infielder Munetaka Murakami, though it’s fair to expect some teams to view him as capable of being a regular at third while others see him as more of a first base only defender. Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso stand at the top of the third and first base markets, respectively, with Eugenio Suarez, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Arraez standing out among the other notable corner infield options available.

MLBTR predicted a four-year, $64MM deal for Okamoto at the outset of the offseason, though it’s worth noting there’s at least some reason to believe Okamoto, Imai, and Murakami could all outperform expectations financially, at least to some extent. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that some MLB clubs are hoping to “avoid falling further behind” the Dodgers in the Japanese market, and that this sentiment could help the three top NPB talents coming over from Japan this winter secure better-than-expected deals.

The team that ultimately signs Okamoto will owe Yomiuri a posting fee on top of whatever they guarantee the infield. The posting fee works out to be 20% of the first $25MM Okamoto signs for, 17.5% of the contract’s next $25MM, and 15% of any money above the $50MM mark. If Okamoto were to sign for the $64MM guarantee MLBTR predicted he’ll land, the signing team would owe a posting fee of approximately $11.5MM, which would take the total financial outlay for Okamoto’s services to $75.5MM.

MLBTR Podcast: Bo Bichette’s Health, Kazuma Okamoto, And Dylan Cease’s Market

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • If the Blue Jays were to extend Addison Barger, would the Lawrence Butler deal be a good comp? (40:35)
  • If a veteran signs a minor league deal, are they eligible to be taken in the Rule 5 draft? (44:50)
  • Will the Red Sox trade Jarren Duran? (46:25)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Phillies’ Outfield, Tarik Skubal, And Hiring College Coaches – listen here
  • Murakami To Be Posted This Offseason, Managerial Vacancies, And More! – listen here
  • Rockies’ Front Office Changes, Skip Schumaker, And ABS Talk – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images

Kazuma Okamoto To Be Posted This Offseason

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NPB infielder Kazuma Okamoto will be posted for MLB clubs this offseason, according to an announcement made by the Yomiuri Giants and Okamoto himself during a press conference earlier today. Yahoo Sports Japan (Japanese language link) was among the outlets to report on the news, which comes on the heels of reporting last month that Okamoto was expected to be posted this winter.

Despite that previous reporting, the 29-year-old Okamoto’s was not viewed as a certain thing due in part to Yomiuri’s history of being reluctant to allow their star players to utilize the posting system. Okamoto certainly fits that description, seeing as he’s the club’s captain and a six-time All-Star with two Gold Gloves and three NPB home run titles to his name. He was limited to just 69 Central League games this year due to an elbow injury caused by a collision at first base, but in the 293 trips to the plate he managed to take he raked to the tune of a .327/.416/.598 slash line. He managed 15 homers, 21 doubles, and a triple in less than half a full season’s work with identical 11.3% strikeout and walk rates.

It’s that blend of power and discipline that has led teams to scout Okamoto for the past several years in anticipation of his eventual move stateside. Since his rookie age-22 season back in 2018, Okamoto has hit 274 home runs in 1,039 Central League games. He’s homered once every 16.2 plate appearances in that eight-year stretch with a 17.7% strikeout rate and a walk rate of 10.8%. It’s certainly an impressive resume, and his career .277/.361/.521 slash line in NPB compares quite favorably to the NPB slash lines of current big league sluggers Shohei Ohtani (.286/.358/.500) and Seiya Suzuki (.315/.414/.570). That Suzuki was a better hitter in NPB than Ohtani was should demonstrate the fact that NPB stats don’t always perfectly reflect how a player will perform in the majors.

Much of that is due to the lack of high-end velocity in NPB, which creates uncertainty about how hitters will handle the improved velocity in the majors. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs notes that Okamoto’s numbers against heaters greater than 94 mph “fall off a cliff,” which could be a problem seeing as the average four-seam fastball velocity in MLB this season was 94.4 mph. Of course, some of those struggles could simply be due to limited exposure; Longenhagen notes that Okamoto saw only around 200 fastballs at that velocity all season last year. It’s entirely possible his numbers could improve against high-end velocity with more experience facing those types of pitchers, but it’s nonetheless a concern interested clubs will need to consider as they weigh a pursuit of Okamoto’s services.

Another consideration is where Okamoto will be able to play. He’s played around 60% of his NPB games at third base, but has also received plenty of time at first base with an increased workload at that position in recent years plus occasional starts in the outfield corners. One of the corner infield spots seems most likely to be his defensive home in the majors, and while it’s certainly possible there are MLB clubs that view Okamoto as a capable third baseman, Jeff Passan of ESPN suggests that at least some teams view him as better suited for first base, where he’s drawn rave reviews defensively for his work in Japan.

Now that Okamoto is poised to be posted, he’s sure to draw significant multi-year interest in the majors. He’ll face competition from fellow NPB corner infielder Munetaka Murakami in the posting market this winter, who is four years younger than Okamoto with a .270/.394/.557 NPB slash line that’s even more impressive. In terms of stateside players, the biggest names on the first base market are Pete Alonso, Josh Naylor, and Luis Arraez while the third base market is headlined by Alex Bregman and Eugenio Suarez. The Mets, Red Sox, Mariners, Angels, and Padres are among the teams who need help at at least one corner infield spot this winter, while teams like the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Phillies, and Tigers could also make sense depending on how the rest of their roster decisions play out.

Okamoto won’t be officially posted for some time yet, as that process typically begins between late November and mid December. Once he’s been posted, MLB teams will have 45 days to negotiate a contract with Okamoto. The club that ultimately lands him with owe the Yomiuri Giants a posting fee on top of Okamoto’s contract. That fee adds up to 20% of the first $25MM spent on Okamoto, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of any spending over $50MM. As an example, when the Cubs signed Suzuki during the 2021-22 offseason, the posting fee on that $85MM deal came in at roughly $14.6MM. The posting fee on Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM contract with the Dodgers, meanwhile, came in at approximately $50.6MM.

NPB’s Kazuma Okamoto, Tatsuya Imai Expected To Be Posted For MLB Teams

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7:34pm: Jon Heyman of The New York Post writes that Okamoto and Imai are indeed both expected to be posted this offseason.

12:24pm: Every offseason, a handful of high-profile players from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization in South Korea either reach true free agency or are made available to MLB teams by way of the posting system. We already know that slugging third baseman Munetaka Murakami (NPB’s Yakult Swallows) and steady right-hander Kona Takahashi (NPB’s Seibu Lions) will be posted this winter. Breakout infielder Sung Mun Song (KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes) is hoping to be posted for big league clubs as well. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports this morning that Yomiuri Giants third baseman Kazuma Okamoto and Seibu Lions righty Tatsuya Imai are also hoping to be posted by their clubs and make the jump to Major League Baseball.

The hope of being posted is notable, but that also does not guarantee either player will be available to North American clubs this winter. Yakyu Cosmopolitan — a terrific source for English-speaking fans with an interest in Japanese baseball — points out that NPB’s Giants are a typically anti-posting club who rarely make their stars available to MLB teams. Okamoto is the Giants’ captain. The Lions are more amenable to posting players, but they’ve already agreed to post Takahashi. Posting two members of their rotation would be difficult, but YC notes that Imai would be a true free agent after the 2026 season. The Lions could lose him for nothing in the 2026-27 offseason anyhow.

Okamoto turned 29 in June. He’s a six-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner who’s thrice led NPB in home runs. He missed more than three months of the current season after injuring his elbow in a collision at first base, but he’s healthy again and is batting .304/.385/.585 with 11 homers, 13 doubles, a triple and nearly as many walks (10.2%) as strikeouts (11.2%) in 196 plate appearances. Okamoto averaged 34 homers per season from 2018-23, “slipped” to 27 last year, and is now homering at the third-best rate of his career (once every 17.8 plate appearances).

Okamoto has been on the radar of MLB scouts for several years now, but if the Giants are going to post him, this will be the time to do it. Like Imai, he’ll have the requisite nine years of service to become a true free agent after the 2026 season. That hasn’t stopped the Yomiuri club from holding onto stars in the past. However, if Okamoto is set on eventually making a move to North America, the Giants’ decision boils down to posting him now and reaping a notable sum via the posting system or allowing him to walk with no compensation next winter.

The right-handed-hitting Okamoto played primarily third base early in his NPB career, but he’s seen significant time at first and has a handful of starts in the outfield corners as well. Okamoto has split his time between the corners this year but was primarily a first baseman in 2024. Sports Info Solutions credited him with the Fielding Bible Award as NPB’s best defender at first base in 2024, and Passan suggests that some MLB teams feel he’s better suited at first than at third.

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs agrees, labeling Okamoto as a “likely first-base-only defender” in the majors but crediting his plus power and consistent ability to pull the ball with authority. Longenhagen notes that, as is the case with most NPB hitters, there are questions about Okamoto’s ability to hit big league fastballs. The average NPB fastball is around 91 mph, compared to this year’s 94.4 mph average four-seamer in MLB (via Statcast). Longenhagen writes that Okamoto’s numbers against heaters greater than 94 mph “fall off a cliff.” It’s a valid concern, though the counter is always that a hitter could potentially adapt to better velocity when seeing it more frequently. That uncertainty will be baked into eventual price of a free agent contract if Okamoto is posted.

Even if Okamoto is limited to primarily playing first base, he’s a good defender there by all accounts. He has plus power, improving contact skills and draws plenty of walks. Since settling in as a regular in his age-22 season, Okamoto is a .276/.360/.524 hitter with an average of 39 homers per 162 games played. He currently has a career-low strikeout rate and the second-best ISO (slugging minus batting average) of his career. If he’s posted, there will surely be multi-year interest from MLB clubs.

Imai’s possible addition to the market is arguably even more intriguing, given the heavy price teams are willing to pay for prime-aged pitching. The 5’11” righty won’t turn 28 until next May. He’s in the midst of a career-best season, sporting a comical 1.50 ERA with a 28.8% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate in 143 2/3 innings. Dating back to the 2022 season, Imai boasts a sensational 2.10 earned run average. Passan notes that the right-hander sits 95 mph with his heater and tops out at 99 mph, giving him the sort of power arsenal that’s quite rare in NPB.

An ankle injury held him to nine games back in 2022, but Imai has topped 130 innings in three seasons since and is averaging seven innings per start for a second consecutive season. He’s on pace for back-to-back seasons of more than 170 innings. (Bear in mind that the NPB season is 144 games, not 162 as in MLB, and Japanese pitchers typically only start once per week.) Imai currently ranks seventh in NPB in innings pitched, and the six names ahead of him all have at least one extra start over him. He’s averaged more innings per start than all but one of those pitchers ahead of him on that leaderboard.

Passan writes that he polled more than a dozen scouts and front office executives on the type of contract Imai could command, with estimates ranging from $80MM on the low end to nearly $200MM on the high end. He’ll be three years older than Yoshinobu Yamamoto was when he landed his precedent-setting $325MM contract with the Dodgers but two years younger than Shota Imanaga was when he signed a four-year, $53MM deal that now looks like a bargain for the Cubs (and still will even after Chicago picks up an option to push the deal to $80MM over five years).

If Imai is posted, he’ll join Dustin May and Michael Soroka as free agent starters heading into their age-28 seasons. Imai would have considerably more earning power than either, as big league teams will pay a premium for his power arsenal and the allure of the unknown. Based on Imai’s age, arsenal and recent track record, there’s a chance that he could be the highest-paid pitcher of the entire free agent class this winter — if the Lions eventually choose to make him available.

For those in need of a refresher, the MLB-NPB posting system allows Japanese teams to post their players for all 30 MLB teams at their discretion. Players that are 25 or older and have six-plus years of experience can sign major league contracts for any length and any amount. When a player is posted, that opens a 45-day window for him to negotiate with any and all interested MLB clubs.

When a deal is reached, the MLB team must pay a posting/release fee to the player’s former NPB club. That sum is equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any money thereafter. That sum comes in addition to the contract. Any down-the-road earnings (e.g. club options, performance bonuses, etc.) are also factored in once they become guaranteed. For instance, if Imai were to sign a $125MM contract with an eventual club option for $25MM, his MLB team would owe the Lions an additional $3.75MM (15%) upon exercising that club option.

NPB Players To Watch: September

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The 2023 regular season is approaching its final stages in the NPB. Here’s the latest on the players we’ve been keeping track of at MLBTR. If you need a refresher on more specific player profiles, check out the first edition of the series.

Let’s get to it!

(Stats are as of September 13th)

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes

Yamamoto continues to show us why he’s undoubtedly the best pitcher in NPB. The 25-year-old right-hander just tossed his second career no-hitter against the Chiba Lotte Marines this past weekend, in front of scouts/executives of 12 MLB ball clubs, including Yankees GM Brian Cashman.

It feels like a long time ago when I wrote that Yamamoto was having a “slow” start to the season by his standards, with a 2.35 ERA in his first 38 ⅓ innings. Yamamoto has shifted into a different gear since May. Yamamoto hasn’t given up an earned run in six consecutive starts, since the beginning of August. He’s currently on a 42-inning streak without an earned run allowed.

In his 20 starts in 2023, the Orix Buffaloes ace has a 1.26 ERA, striking out 26.2% of hitters and walking just 4.3%, and a 1.86 FIP in 143 frames. That 1.26 ERA is good enough for the lowest ERA in NPB since Masahiro Tanaka’s 1.27 ERA in 2011. Yamamoto is once again on pace to claim the Pacific League pitching triple crown (ERA, strikeouts, wins).

At age 25, Yamamoto is showing no signs of slowing down and continues to evolve. He notably tweaked his delivery last offseason to more of a slide-step style. Despite the “slow start”, it’s safe to say that the change has paid off, as Yamamoto has raised his average fastball velocity to 95.56 mph (152.9 km/h) compared to 94.9 mph (151.9 km/h) in 2022. In addition to his consistency, strikeout stuff, and ability to pitch deep into games, another development in Yamamoto’s game is his ability to keep the ball in the park. Yamamoto has allowed just two homers all season (he gave up between six and eight homers per season since his first full season as a starting pitcher in 2019).

2. Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA Baystars

It was reported last week that the Yokohama DeNA Baystars lefty will be posted this off-season, as many in Japan predicted last off-season. The 30-year-old southpaw had his best month in July but got roughed up in August with a 5.27 ERA. He had a bounce-back outing earlier today against the Chunichi Dragons, tossing eight innings of one-run ball and striking out eleven, with the sole run coming from a solo homer. His season numbers are still strong, with a 2.71 ERA, 29.96% strikeout rate, and 3.9% walk rate in his 20 starts.

Although his ERA is not as good as 2022 (2.26), Imanaga’s strikeout rate at 29.9% is a career-best. The Baystars ace notably increased his average fastball velocity in the past few seasons. It now sits around 92.2mph (147.5 km/h), compared to 90.8 mph (145.3km/h) in 2021. While Imanaga’s arm is not overpowering, the combination of his command and strikeout stuff allows him to rack up strikeouts. 

3. Yuki Matsui, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

The 27-year-old left-handed closer for the Eagles continues to be one of the best relievers in NPB. Despite his young age and being converted to a starter on a few occasions during his career, Matsui is one of the most accomplished closers in the history of NPB. The southpaw became the ninth NPB pitcher in history to reach 200 career saves and was the youngest player to ever reach that mark. On the season, he has the second most saves in NPB with 33. He’s been nothing but reliable, with strong numbers to back it up; posting a 1.55 ERA, 33.7% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate in 49 appearances. 

Matsui officially earned his overseas free agent rights earlier in the year, giving him the ability to sign with an MLB team without going through the posting system. The Eagles southpaw still hasn’t made clear what his plans are beyond 2023. 

As I wrote in the first edition of the series, Matsui’s struggle to adapt to the WBC ball, which is closer to the MLB ball, may play a role in his MLB evaluation. If MLB offers aren’t enticing enough, he may very well choose to stay in NPB and attempt to break the NPB save record. 

4. Kona Takahashi, Saitama Seibu Lions

Takahashi continues to prove that his career-best season in 2022 was not a fluke, posting a strong 2.31 ERA in 22 starts, the eighth highest among qualified starters in the entire NPB. He’s fanned hitters at an 18.8% rate and walking hitters at a 7.7% rate. 

The 27-year-old righty missed a few starts in August because of an illness. He struggled in the first two starts after his return, clearly still regaining his health and conditioning. He bounced back and tossed six shutout innings this past weekend, in front of MLB scouts. He continues to make improvements and his average fastball velocity has improved dramatically since he entered the league, which should make him more intriguing to MLB teams. 

Takahashi made his MLB aspirations clear last offseason, but it’s unclear if he’ll be posted by the Lions. 

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

Naoyuki Uwasawa has had himself another solid season for the Fighters, posting a 2.84 ERA, with an 18.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 158 ⅓ innings, the most innings pitched in all of NPB. 

Sports Hochi reported that scouts from the Angels, Royals, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Cubs attended his September 2nd, so MLB teams are keeping tabs on the 29-year-old right-hander. Unfortunately, there may be a Kohei Arihara-sized cloud hanging over Uwasawa’s MLB dreams. Uwasawa doesn’t have an overpowering arm with his average fastball velocity sitting around 90.8 mph. He also does not boast strikeout stuff, while not having the same command that Arihara had when he was coming to MLB (although Arihara himself was wild during his Rangers tenure). 

Younger stars to keep an eye on

1. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines

Sasaki was on pace for a historic season rivaling Yamamoto’s, before he was diagnosed with a left oblique muscle tear which sidelined him at the end of July. The 6-foot-4 hurler was expected to miss the remainder of the 2023 regular season, but made a surprisingly quick recovery and returned over the weekend. Sasaki was limited to three innings since he skipped a rehab start, but still showcased his lively arm, with his signature fastball sitting between 98mph and 100mph. The Marines will likely not overextend their star right-hander, so he will be carefully managed for the remainder of the season. 

On the season, Sasaki has a 1.53 ERA, an unbelievable 40% strikeout rate, a 4.8% walk rate and 88 innings in his 14 starts. There is no doubt about Sasaki’s talent and natural frame at 6’4″ and 203 pounds. The only thing Sasaki has left to “prove” is his durability, and showcasing that he can pitch multiple full seasons. There is plenty of time for him to prove that, since he’ll likely be posted in the 2026 offseason at the earliest, barring any surprise requests.

2. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Murakami has shrugged off most concerns and has re-established himself as one of the premier power hitters in NPB. Although he has had, by his standards, the statistically worst season since his rookie season in 2019, Murakami is still slashing a solid .253/.372/.497 with 28 homers, 77 RBIs, and a .869 OPS. 

Murakami did address his early season slump in an August interview, where he said he lost his way a little bit while training with the other Japanese stars in the lead-up to the WBC. He said that he got distracted trying to incorporate the training regimen of players like Shohei Ohtani, Masataka Yoshida, and Yu Darvish and did not address his swing as much as he should have. 

While he does have a great walk rate at 18.1%, Murakami is still striking out at an alarming 34.5% rate. He also struggles to hit righties, hitting just .209 against them. He still needs to make improvements with his defense at third base, as he has an NPB-worst 20 errors. This season is obviously far from Murakami’s best, but a down year may allow him to come back even stronger next season.

Murakami signed a three-year deal last offseason that came with a reported guarantee that he will be posted in the 2025-2026 offseason. 

3. Kazuma Okamoto, Yomiuri Giants

Okamoto’s name came up in headlines last week, after it was reported that he was on the radar of several MLB teams. Okamoto is in the midst of a career-year, with a slash line of .293/.386/.611 with 90 RBIs and an NPB-leading 38 homers and .997 OPS. He has an 18.9% strikeout rate and a 12.2% walk rate. He was unstoppable in August, slashing .318/.422/.812, blasting 12 homers and driving in 25 runs. 

Okamoto has hinted at interest in a potential MLB move, but he isn’t set to be a free agent until the 2026-2027 offseason. The 6’1″, 220-pound slugger is a career .275 hitter with 182 homers, hitting at least 30 homers in every season since becoming a full-time starter in 2018. The Giants slugger has hit 30 homers for six consecutive seasons, which speaks to his durability and consistency.

The Giants are traditionally against the posting system. The only two players they allowed to be posted were Shun Yamaguchi and Tomoyuki Sugano, and both were unique situations. Yamaguchi was given permission because he made it a part of his free agency deal when signing for the Giants from the Baystars in 2016. Sugano was given special permission to enter the posting system, because he refused to join the Nippon Ham Fighters when he was originally drafted in 2011 and he held out for an entire season before being drafted by the Giants in 2012 (and his uncle is Giants manager Tatsunori Hara, which may have played a role).

As expected, the ball club has denied any conversations regarding Okamoto’s potential move, with executive Atsunori Otsuka saying “We’ve heard he has MLB aspirations, but we’ve never had direct discussion with him about that. We typically don’t accept posting, and want our players to earn their overseas rights. It was the same with Hideki Matsui.”

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move. Other NPB top performers are also on the list.

Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Shunpeita Yamashita, Orix Buffaloes; Atsuki Taneichi, right-handed starter, Chiba Lotte Marines. Liván Moinelo, left-handed reliever, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. Raidel Martinez, right-handed reliever, Chunichi Dragons. (Moinelo and Martinez will have to defect their homeland, Cuba, to join MLB)

MLB Teams Scouting Kazuma Okamoto

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9:52pm: Morosi now reports that Okamoto isn’t on track to surpass the nine-year NPB service threshold for international free agency until the 2026-27 offseason. While the Giants could ostensibly still make him available via the posting system, there’s not much incentive for them to do so until after the ’25 campaign.

9:48pm: Yomiuri Giants corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto is on the radar of major league clubs, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Morosi doesn’t cite any specific MLB teams with interest but notes that clubs have been evaluating the 27-year-old in case he becomes available during the upcoming offseason.

Okamoto has played parts of nine seasons in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He wasn’t established at the NPB level until 2018, however, so he’ll still have less than nine full seasons of NPB service time. As a result, he won’t be eligible for unrestricted international free agency until the 2024-25 offseason.

It’s not uncommon for NPB teams to make a player available to MLB clubs the winter before their free agent year via the posting system. That’d entitle the NPB club to compensation, as a signing MLB organization has to pay a release fee to the NPB team to sign a player who’d been posted. If the NPB team waits until the player hits international free agency, they’d receive no money if he departs.

The Giants previously posted Shun Yamaguchi, paving the way for him to sign with the Blue Jays during the 2019-20 offseason. They made Tomoyuki Sugano available via the posting system the ensuing offseason, though he eventually re-signed with Yomiuri and has never made the jump to MLB. Whether they’d be willing to make Okamoto available is unclear.

If he hits the market, Okamoto would be an intriguing upside play in a class light on bats. He’s raking at a .301/.393/.627 clip over 504 plate appearances this season. He has already connected on 37 home runs, leading qualified NPB hitters by 11 longballs. He unsurprisingly also tops the league in slugging and ranks fifth in on-base percentage.

Okamoto has established himself as one of Japan’s more consistent power bats. He has eclipsed 30 homers in six straight seasons. This is trending as a career year — he had a comparatively modest .252/.336/.469 slash a season ago — but he clearly brings right-handed power. Okamoto represented Japan in this year’s World Baseball Classic, connecting on a homer off Kyle Freeland in an eventual 3-2 win in the championship.

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