This week's mailbag gets into Pete Alonso's reported contract demand, the Tigers and Tarik Skubal, possible Trent Grisham suitors, and much more.
Chris asks:
Alonso saying he is seeking a 7 year deal is essentially him saying that he's out of Queens. So if you're Stearns, is the play to go all out for Murakami? Short-term on a Josh Naylor? Or give the keys to Clifford, strengthen up elsewhere like CF, 3B, DH to supplement the offense now you don't have Pete? Or just really go all in on your "Run Prevention" Plan, go get a Skubal or Skenes, sign Valdez or Cease and fortify the defense. There's a lot of questions for the Mets who honestly feel like they are only a few pieces for being a legit World Series Contender again.
Abner asks:
Pete Alonso is asking for a 7 year deal (he will be 31 by the beginning of next season) and David Stearns does not like that type of commitment for players in the wrong side of the 30's. It is known that the Mets are showing interest in NPB player Munetaka Murakami who is a slugger in Japan, but is not yet proven against MLB pitching. Murakami also comes with some concerns (poor plate discipline/not excel with defense), but based on recent Japanese stars that have come to MLB (Roki Sasaki/Yoshinobu Yamamoto/Seiya Suzuki) we could expect him to command a longer and more expensive deal than the one Alonso is looking for. Additionally, there will be no other first basemen of that same caliber available in this offseason free agency class. So, how feasible for the Mets would be to get a deal done with Pete Alonso and how that deal would look like? Thanks in advance.
On Saturday, Mike Puma of the New York Post wrote, "Alonso, who turns 31 in December, is expected to seek a contract of at least seven years — a length consistent with deals the player’s agent, Scott Boras, completed in recent seasons for Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman at the same age (Chapman received a six-year extension from the Giants after his first season with the club on a different contract)."
Start with the fact that both of those comps are a major stretch for Alonso.
Semien did indeed sign a seven-year deal heading into his age-31 season. This came off a monster 6-WAR campaign, Semien's second in three years. Alonso has not even reached 4 WAR since he was a rookie. The gap in defensive value on the two is enormous. Semien was a Gold Glove second baseman who was also capable of playing shortstop.
Puma makes a case that Alonso's first base defense isn't as bad as the metrics suggest, because he's good at making scoops. That may be true, but he's still a pretty clear net negative given what two completely different metrics, Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved, say.
More crucially, Semien was an up-the-middle player, not a first baseman who's expected to move to DH soon. Semien's defensive abilities have sustained 2+ WAR value even as his offense has slipped below league average. And Semien's seventh year, brought about by a level of free agent competition Alonso is unlikely to have, looks regrettable.
Chapman's deal was not signed on the open market. It's a six-year extension covering age 32-37. I suppose a case can be made that if a 32-year-old can get six years, a 31-year-old should get seven. Like Semien, defense is a huge part of Chapman's game, making him a poor comp for Alonso.
The correct comps are other first basemen, plus designated hitters. Modern GMs have clearly demonstrated they will not give first basemen and DHs long-term deals. The fact that no one offered Alonso a good one last year was not entirely due to the qualifying offer. It has been nearly four years since a free agent first baseman of any age signed for even five years. That was Freddie Freeman getting six in March 2022. Freeman clearly a better hitter than Alonso is.
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Not sure 7 years would be a good deal for a team. Once Pete’s bat starts slowing down, he’ll be as useless as you-know-what on a boar hog.
Alonso has zero leverage, especially if he only wants to play for the Mets.
He has plenty of leverage and has never said that he only wants to play for the Mets. If he lessened his demands, there are a few teams who would make a good offer.
@mlb
Only Met fans think they’re the only team he wants to play for. They showed him they’re ass last year. I doubt he comes back at all.
I doubt Cohen wants to go thru a repeat of last years negotiations. The Mets will likely move on.
I’m sure Boras is gonna TRY for 7 years, but if Alonso knows what’s good for him which is not waiting until March to sign a one-year deal with whoever’s left, he’d be better off getting an agent who can work out the best destination on a 5-year deal which I think most teams would be okay with.
If we’re being realistic on his likely 3 WAR / year value, he should be able to land 150/5 pretty easily, and probably for a contender. Those extra two years and presumably another 60-70m are going to be tough to justify for a DH.
Well said. It’s a dumb article to say him asking for 7 years means he’s not a met. You start high and go down. If he said I want a five year deal then the team starts at 3 and settle on 4. By saying 7, team goes to 4 they agree on 5 and an option with opt out after 3 years. He will be a met. Mets have no other option and he can take in money with a long contract and records and stuff. Iconic met of all career with them. Plus Soto needs the big bat behind him to put up alien numbers. Without judge or a Pete then I would not expect these two years type stats.
Mets have other options. Bellinger is a nice fit.
Naylor provides a higher average and better glove for less.
They should pursue Bellinger if Alonso stays or goes.
Predicting 4 years at $105 million and 1 mutual/club option for $25 million with 5 million buyout for Alonso
And 32 Ks in 83 ABs. What are you talking about?
@Knicks. We shall see. I still think Boston should have gotten him last year instead of Bregman and kept Devers.
7 year deal? In other words, Pete’s agent has over promised and he’ll soon be signing another 2 year, 1st year opt out, deal with the Mets.
Yes, same as Aguilar. That was the point. Not really suggesting Seymour specifically.
If Pete doesn’t resign we need a couple of right handed bats.
3 trades 1) Sproat, Peterson, Jett, McNeil and a minor leaguer to Detroit for Skubal ( but needs to resign ), 2) Nimmo, a minor leaguer plus $40 mil to Cleveland for Cade Smith, 3) Mauricio to Houston for C.Walker.
4 FA’s Bellinger CF, Cease or King, Suarez (DH/ backup 3b), IAlexis Diaz.
Rotation: Skubal, Cease /(King), McLean, Manaea and Tong, pushing Holmes and Scott to the BP. Trade Senga
Lineup: Lindor, Acuna (2b), Soto (LF), Walker, Bellinger (CF) , Suarez (DH), Baty, Alvarez and Benge (RF)
Haha! As a Mets fan, I’ll take that Skubal trade anytime. Tigers fans: “Are you joking?”
As a Tiger fan, I’m horrified by the idea of Skubal going to the Mets. But if he must be traded, Scott Harris should settle for nothing less than McLean, Sproat, and Jett. Throw in Peterson if you like, but keep McNeil!
Now, now, don’t be silly. McLean has got to be as untouchable as they get.
Mauricio at first? Huh? Has yet to show he can hit ML pitching and prob has zero experience at first base. Mighty, mighty, optimistic suggestion.