The Phillies are still fighting for their playoff lives in the NLDS against the Dodgers, but whether L.A. completes the sweep today or Philadelphia mounts a comeback and makes it all the way to the World Series, the offseason is looming. Five days after the World Series concludes, teams will have to make their first major roster-related decisions of the offseason when club options come due. The majority of these options lack much intrigue, but the Phillies face the interesting call of deciding whether to pay lefty reliever Jose Alvarado $9MM for his services next year or offer him a $500K buyout and send him to free agency.
The 30-year-old Alvarado has accomplished quite a lot in parts of nine seasons as a big leaguer. Among 88 relievers to log 300 or more innings since the start of the 2017 season, Alvarado’s 3.45 ERA (37th) and 3.50 SIERA (40th) both rank in the top half while his 3.21 FIP (15th), 29.7% strikeout rate (14th), and 51.8% groundball rate (13th) all rank in the top-15. That look at his overall body of work casts Alvarado as a very solid relief arm, if a step below the elite tier. In a market where even one year deals for quality setup men often break eight figures, a $9MM option on a pitcher like that seems like an easy choice to exercise, particularly given Philadelphia’s difficulties finding quality replacements for key pieces like Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez this past offseason.
Things may not necessarily be that simple with Alvarado, however. While Alvarado’s overall stats are quite good, he’s experienced a great deal of year-to-year volatility throughout his career. He’s been utterly dominant, as he was when he pitched to a 1.74 ERA in 42 appearances with the Phillies back in 2022. Other years, however, he’s been more pedestrian than anything else. Of his nine seasons in the majors, just five of them have seen him post an ERA below 4.00.
That volatility makes him far less reliable than many other late inning arms around the game. With closers like Edwin Diaz and Devin Williams expected to be available this winter, it’s at least plausible the Phillies could feel their funds are better spent elsewhere. That’s all before considering Alvarado’s recent history, which has been ugly both on and off the field. Even when looking at his performance the past two years in a vacuum, his numbers haven’t been especially exciting. Since the start of the 2024 campaign, Alvarado has pitched to a 4.00 ERA (107 ERA+) with a 3.74 FIP.
Those are the numbers of a decent middle reliever, but not someone you would trust in a high leverage situation. The elephant in the room that is Alvarado’s PED suspension earlier this year further complicates the decision Philadelphia faces. It’s impossible for anyone other than the Phillies themselves to know what sort of impact Alvarado’s suspension had within the clubhouse, but from a purely performance-related standpoint the suspension calls into question how well the southpaw will be able to sustain his previous success going forward. A string of eight appearances down the stretch where he posted a 7.50 ERA while surrendering three home runs in six innings before his season ended due to a forearm strain did little to inspire confidence headed into next year, as well.
Even with all those potential red flags acknowledged, however, it’s still not hard to make the case for the Phillies to pick up Alvarado’s option. The club will surely be focused on filling the void impact players like Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto will leave in the lineup, and it will be a pricey endeavor to either re-sign or replace these free agents. The rotation may not be the stabilizing force that it once was, as Ranger Suarez is also a free agent, Aaron Nola struggled badly this year, and Zack Wheeler is still recovering from surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome.
This all adds more pressure on the bullpen to perform than ever before in the team’s current window. Even in Alvarado’s weakest seasons, he’s been a viable middle relief arm, and it’s nearly impossible for him to be a worse investment than Jordan Romano and his 8.23 ERA were this season. Perhaps, then, locking in the combination of upside and a solid enough floor that Alvarado provides will make sense for the team as they look to 2026 with only Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, and Tanner Banks locked into the bullpen behind closer Jhoan Duran. Even if the Phillies don’t want to roster Alvarado next year, there’s the distinct possibility that another club in need of a left-handed arm for their bullpen might be interested in working out a trade for Alvarado given his relatively affordable salary and substantial upside.
How do MLBTR readers think the Phillies will handle Alvarado’s upcoming option? Will they keep him in the fold to either work out of their bullpen next year or try to trade this winter, or will they cut bait and let him walk in free agency? Have your say in the poll below:
Johan Duran please
Jhoan too.
He is Arbitration Eligiible in both 2026 and 2027. So he won’t be a FA until 2028. His return is not a question.
I
I would say so. Sure, Duran, Strahm, Kerk, and Banks are locked in, but the rest of the bullpen are question marks. Exercising the option is one less spot to have to fill externally in the offseason. Maybe instead both sides agree on a cheaper multi-year deal or something, but I’d expect Alvarado back.
That’s what I would prefer. Leverage the suspension and end of season injury to extend him for 2-years at a lesser AAV. Perhaps something nearer to Strahm’s contract. 2 yrs / 15m would do. At 9m I am somewhat indifferent.
So a two year contract to a guy who missed this year, missed the playoffs and has a forearm injury?
Yes.
After watching this bullpen implode again you really can’t be serious.
He is serious, and don’t call him Shirley.
How many members of the regular bullpen this year would you replace?
The fans of most clubs would like most of their bullpen replaced.
I think there is little chance they pick up his option at that figure.
According to SportTrac the Phillies were a solid 4th in Total Payroll in 2025 behind only the two New York Teams and the Dodgers and $45m ahead of the 5th place team.
They will want to resign Schwarber who is likely to get a definite pay bump. I think most want him resigned, though hopefully for not too long since he is getting older.
They will want to resign Realmuto. His bat is slipping some but he is still very strong behind the plate.
It’s unlikely the Phillies are able to get either of these done before the decision time the deadline on the Alvarado contract. Schwarber at least will want to test the FA waters. The Phils need to keep their budget as flexible as possible to get that done.
Alvarado may be back….they won’t be allocating those types of numbers to him until they resolve their two key FAs.
But the question is not do we try and bring him back..It’s do we a exercise a $9m option on an Up and Down reliever who missed the end of the season due to a “ForeArm Strain”. before we deal with resigning SchwarBomb who will certainly at least test Free Agency.
IMHO, I do think we try and bring him back…but no I don’t think they are going to commit $9m to him until higher priorities are set. If that means letting him test the marget so be it.
The call is fairly easy, unless we don’t know enough about either the behind the scenes stuff or the state of his elbow. Otherwise, it is hard to turn down a one year deal when we need the bullpen arms.
I think in the end this comes down to a “devil you know and devil you don’t know” decision. PHI knows his strengths and flaws, and they’ve made it work as best as could be expected. It comes down to who else is available for $9M, and what can you expect from them?
He did miss this season, the playoffs and he has a forearm injury you know.
Yes.
I would buy him out and negotiate. One year, $5 million I would do. Maybe a second year vesting option.If he gets a better offer, fine.
I think the Phills bring him back. What I would do though is buy him out and offer a 2 year dear. 1 year guaranteed at 5 mil but with vesting options that kicks year two back to 9 mil with a 2 or 3 mil buy out.
Dodgers can never hit this dude. He bent Philly over big time with the PED suspension
I wouldn’t exercise the option but I’d be interested at a much lower number.
I think when they’re eliminated, there’s a lot of pieces that will be up for consideration. Alvarado will be about 10th on the list.
Is he worth the net 8.5M$ on a one year deal? Probably close to it. But the buyout is so low, it would make more sense for PHI to decline it and make him a slightly smaller offer or multi-year offer. Not pitching well in – albeit a small IP total since returning from the IL doesn’t help either. I vote no (this club will need every penny they can scrounge for Schwarber), but it’s a coin flip.
It was his 8th time on the IL in the last 7 years with 6 of those being injuries to his pitching arm/shoulder. So it’s not necessarily just this injury, but the likelihood that he would once again spend time on the IL and not pitch that many innings for the $9 million.
Exercise the option and trade him,whether alone or in a package…9 mil is a bargain for someone in the back of their pen.
At the moment, I tend to believe they let Alvarado walk. And I believe they make a hard push to trade Castellanos as well (while paying off $10-12M of what I believe is $20M on the final year of his contract).
They will be looking to either resign Schwarber or replace him. And while I know the Phillies haven’t been shy about spending money, they still need to be / should be smart about where and how it’s being spent.
Outside of what would be a pretty surprising comeback to win this Dodgers series (and then keep winning), the status quo simply isn’t working. Some changes are needed. And Alvarado just let his team down in a big way this year.
In addition to the above, they hopefully bring back Bader. And that will cost them a bit as well. Maybe not an arm and a leg, but Bader has clearly increased his value this year.
I think there is ZERO Chance Castellanos is back next year. He is working overtime to try and burn every bridge possible. Blaming the Fans in Philly for their struggles the first two games is just gas on the fire. His Defense is terrible by every imaginable metric, but goes to the owner if he is pulled for a defensive sub. His Offensive numbers are barely good. I think they would be happy to cover every penny of his salary with the other team just picking up veteran minimum with nothing but the lowest non-prospect prospect in return. If we get ANYTHING of value in terms of prospect or salary relief, it would be an A+ trade in my book.
Castellanos complained about missing one inning in the field for the first time in 1.5 years, it was bizarre. I will say though, he runs out every ball with a 100% effort. You cannot say that for Turner, Schwarber, and Harper.
The Phillies would need to eat at least half his salary and might get a Single A lottery ticket in return.
Amazed this is polling as a 50/50 decision. Unless the medicals on his forearm strain are ominous, this is a “smash execute” club option. The Phillies have thrown comparable money at the shambling corpses of Romano, Kimbrel, and Merrifield. Maybe you could talk yourself into liking the Romano idea at the time, but the other two were blind dart throws chasing a dead cat bounce. Alvarado is an actual Boss when he’s right, and he’s still better than those other guys when he’s off.
Besides, the Phillies farm system is devoid of pitchers. In the near-majors bucket, it’s Painter, Jean Cabrera, and prayers.
It’s 50/50 because the budget has a cap. They will have needs all over the place and only so many funds to fill them.
The Phillies spend when they have to spend, and, frankly, they have to acquire relievers one way or another. They can get a pile of retreads—and will—but they also need a core of more reliable types.
And need to get Schwarber and Realmuto resigned.
They keep him. Silliness to let him go or they would have cut him when he came back.
If we look at what Alvarado has done over five years with the Phillies, he is averaging 52 games and 47 innings pitched a season with a 3.48 ERA, 3.36 FIP, and 1.32 WHIP.. He has been worth 3.2 WAR total, 0.6 WAR a year. That is a solid performance but it isn’t worth $9 million.
Even if the Mets resign Diaz, they should bring in Alvarado. Those two with lefty’s Raley and Minter and 3 other RHP’s and that pen would be lethal.
Nothing special, and not cheap, but the Philly BP is a bit shaky. Pick up the option and it is one less thing to worry about.
The Phillies need a new manager and coaching staff. Another brutal game of managing by Topper.