It was a good season for the Reds in 2025, on balance. Hunter Greene replicated his excellent 2024 and cemented himself as one of the game’s top young starters, Andrew Abbott enjoyed a career-year that saw him make his first trip to the All-Star game, and despite winning just 83 games the club managed to squeak into the postseason for the first time in a full season since 2013.
With all that being said, however, there are clear flaws with the team as presently constructed and it’s not at all hard to see where the team needs to improve if they hope to return to the playoffs next year for another bite at the apple. The Cincinnati offense disappointed across the board this season, with even star shortstop Elly De La Cruz hitting 11 fewer extra-base hits and swiping 30 fewer bases than last year despite similar on-base numbers.
In a season where virtually every piece of the club’s offensive nucleus fell short of expectations, it seems a bit unfair to single out any one player. Even so, the struggles second baseman Matt McLain faced stand out among the crowd. McLain was one of the most exciting young players in baseball as recently as 2023, when his sensational 89-game rookie season earned him a fifth-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting that year. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2024 season due to injuries and in some regards looked like a shell of his former self this season.
That’s not to say he regressed across the board. McLain’s 28.9% strikeout rate this season was a near perfect match for the 28.5% clip he struck out at back in 2023. His 9.5% walk rate was actually a substantial improvement over the 7.7% rate he posted in his rookie campaign. His defense was also phenomenal as he finished the year with +6 Fielding Run Value, a figure bested by just eight qualified middle infielders in baseball this year. That’s a substantial step up from the +1 FRV McLain offered in his rookie campaign.
Those are all positive (or, in the case of McLain’s strikeout rate, at least neutral) signs relative to 2023. It’s also where the good times come to an end, however. McLain’s power was down substantially by just about every metric this past year. After slugging 16 homers in 89 games as a rookie, he hit 15 across 147 games this year. His doubles also dropped from 23 to 18, while his triples actually dropped from four all the way down to zero. Hitting ten fewer extra-base hits in 174 more plate appearances is a drop in power output that’s nothing short of alarming, and McLain’s paltry .124 ISO put him in the bottom 20 among qualified hitters this year. His barrel rate dropped more than three points from 2023, and his hard-hit rate has dropped nearly two.
That falls short of even some notoriously contact-oriented hitters like Jung Hoo Lee and Jacob Wilson. While those players (not to mention hitters with even less power like Luis Arraez and Nico Hoerner) get away with that minimal power output thanks to elite bat-to-ball skills, but McLain’s lack of improvement in the strikeout department leaves him unable to emulate that brand of hitting. Barring a massive drop in strikeout rate next year, McLain will need to recapture some of that power if he’s going to improve over this year’s paltry 77 wRC+, much less approach the 129 wRC+ he posted in his rookie season.
Just how feasible is that? It’s hard to believe that he’ll get back to that level he flashed in 2023 entirely, because that was buoyed in no small part by a .385 BABIP. A BABIP of .350 is typically viewed as around the upper limit of the sustainable year-to-year range, and McLain’s .292 BABIP this year falls firmly into that more sustainable range. It’s possible it ticks back up in the future, but reversing that more than 90-point drop appears to be little more than a pipe dream. Getting back above league average, however, seems to be a far more reasonable ask, and one that could turn McLain into a key piece of Cincinnati’s core once again.
He’ll need to adjust his approach a bit if he’s going to get there. McLain’s hard-hit rate was only marginally lower than his rookie season in 2025, but he lost more than a quarter of his barrels on a rate basis this season. Some of that can surely be attributed to a stark drop in line drives. While McLain’s grounder rate stayed stagnant at 38.7% between this year and 2023, his line drive rate dropped from a 24.2% clip as a rookie to just 17.2% this year. To put those numbers in context, his line drive rate this year ranked 132nd among 145 qualified hitters, while his 2023 rate would’ve ranked eighth this year among that same group.
Getting back to a more line drive oriented approach could help McLain both recoup some of those lost extra-base hits, and it would also help with his steeply declining BABIP. McLain hit 44.2% of his batted balls in the air this year, a top-30 clip in the majors. That works well for hitters like Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber who have the power to slug 40+ homers on an annual basis, but it’s a much less effective recipe for success for someone with McLain’s profile. He pulled the ball less often than all but 23 of the league’s qualified hitters this year, leaving him with a lot of fly outs and pop ups but little production to show for it.
If McLain can lower his launch angle a bit next year, he could get back to hitting the sweet spot more often than he did this year. That was the secret ingredient that made McLain so effective in 2023, as his 39.6% sweet spot rate ranked in the 94th percentile among all MLB hitters. That dropped to just 34.0% this year, which placed him in the 43rd percentile. The good news for McLain and the Reds is that a change in approach is far easier to correct than a step back in underlying skills, and McLain’s discipline, defense, speed and bat speed all seem to be either right where they were in his rookie year or even better. That makes it relatively easy to imagine him re-emerging as a core piece of a Reds lineup that will need to generate a lot more offense this year if they want to build on their cameo in the playoffs this season.
If McLain gets back to what worked in 2023, he should be fine. People forget he missed a whole year. It goes back to big league reps and adjustments. If you can adjust, you are successful, if not, you won’t.
It’s worth noting that McLain had a very high BAbip (.385) in his rookie year. This season he had a .295. Since league average hovers somewhere around .300, it’s somewhat fair to say that he was more lucky then good in his first season, and this season was a closer approximation to his actual level.
Obviously, improving his power can get his overall hitting value back around league average, and when paired with a good glove, he’ll still make for a solid player moving forward. But I would temper expectations of him getting back to what he did in his rookie year.
I agree. Time will tell if his fall off with the bat was due to injury or his hitting is actually what he showed in 2025.
I don’t know if I’d agree that he was more lucky than good. He played a majority of the season his rookie year. He debuted in the middle of May. Pretty hard to be lucky for 4 and half months.
Missing an entire year and then coming back to a new hitting coach with a different offensive philosophy probably had a lot to do with his struggles. I’m not sure what to expect from him going forward, but the entire Reds offense was just awful to watch this season. I’m amazed they won as many games as they did.
I was always hate the babip argument. If you watch these guys with high babips, they’re not hitting rinky dink ground balls that are making it through the hole, they’re driving the ball. That’s what McLain was doing his rookie year. He looked lost this year.
Along with picking up a few relief pitchers, my top choices for improving the team on the short term would consist of obtaining one or two of the following: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (FA), Taylor Ward (trade) and/or maybe Eugenio Suarez (FA if not too costly). If they do most of all that, they should be in good shape next season (barring injuries) and also, not break the bank doing so. They are foolish to think that a good glove no hit third baseman is feasible.
Alan, the names you mentioned are decent hitters and would help but I’m not sure are the impact bat we need. Suarez is a sentimental pick but strikes out too much and pretty much would DH only. Francona likes to use the DH for giving regulars a day off in the field. Gurriel seems to be declining rapidly with age and would be costly. Ward is decent and a step up from Hays in left but not sure he’s the legit cleanup we need. I’m leaning towards trading a starting pitcher for a slugger that’s controllable commensurate to the pitcher we trade. You’re right we need to make a move before the window closes on this current roster and I think they will.
It would take a trade of Greene, Lodolo or Abbett to get the slugger you mention. Probably, we would need to add to whichever one we trade. Burns and Lowder aren’t proven at the MLB level yet. Singer won’t fetch that type of hitter. Recent history has shown we will need every pitcher we can get because of injuries. (modern pitching mechanics along with throwing harder). Someone mentioned Gurriel is a non candidate due to injury. I would try to get Ward and maybe a FA. If some of the existing hitters don’t step it up, we are doomed anyway. I am referring to McLain, CES, Stephenson, Elly, Steer(lessor degree) and Hayes(3B). Stewart has to continue his good hitting and not have a sophomore slump. The guys coming back from injury may help the BP. Hopefully, Marte and Stewart with full seasons will help increase the overall hitting. It is all a big if.
That’s what makes it fun.
True, but preparation, smart moves and spending more money wisely, all from the front office/ownership can make it far less of a gamble. That along with injury luck and the current players contributing their collective improvement.
I wouldnt trade a starting pitcher yet especially Greene or Lodolo. We proved this year we are good enough to make the postseason and exit early with good pitching and subpar offense. If we ever want to advance to a world series though we will have to have 2 guys at the top of the rotation like greene and Lodolo. Burns could very well be that in the next few years but he will more likely be like greene and lodolo was their first 2 years so he can be a back end rotation piece until then. Singer would bring more at the deadline if we are out of it than he would this offseason.
As for what the reds need to do they need to commit to $15 million more payroll in 2026 than 2025 coming off a post season run should be increasing the revenue. We had an opening day payroll of a little over $115 million in 2025. According to this sites arbitration projections and the contracts with greene, trevino and assuming we do not pick up the mutual option with hays but we do sutter we would have a starting payroll of $94 million and some roster spots to fill on the 26 man.
Priority 1 would be resigning our closer. Everything i read he loves it here and loves his teammates. At age 36 after making $8 million the past 2 years my guess is we could offer him early in the hot stove season and get him for $10 million one year deal. Priority 2 a left handes power bat and non tender espinol which subtracts $3 more million. Estimates have schwarber between $25 million and $30 million a year on a 4 year deal. If it’s $25 million then we need to sign him if its more then we need to look at josh naylor for a projected 3 year $17 to $21 million a year. Only if we cant get one of those for the lower end of the projection should we look to trade a starter and then it should be singer (maybe a trade for lowe of tampa bay if we throw in a prospect which would be a net $0 on payroll) or abbott for to the red sox for abreu another net $0 on the payroll. Priority 3 would be sign andujar back ($4 million one year) if we get schwarber or hays back ($12 million if its Naylor or one of the trades. One other thing that might could happen is of the dodgers get bregman they have no more use for muncey and would probably let him go for a lower level prospect and he would be owed $10 million next year.
$94 start – $3 espinal + $10 closer + 25 schwarber + $4 andujar = $130 million. Comes out nearly the same if we get a lesser left hand bat naylor or muncey and replace andujar with hays from the right side. Gets back to this past year payroll if we do one of the trades for left hand power and keep hays but we give up a pitcher to do so.
As for mclain i dont know if he can replicate his rookie season or not but he has earned some leeway however if he is still below .650 ops by June then we will need to go with lux or Stewart as our everyday 2nd baseman and use McLain at short on days to give EDLC rest. Every team has a defensive whiz in the lineup with a sub .650 ops and we will have Hayes but a team intent on making the playoffs can’t have 2. Had we not traded for Hayes Suarez could have worked on a projected 3 year $15 million a year deal.
Gurriel suffered a torn ACL in September. He’ll miss a good chunk of the 2026 season if not most of it.
Would Taylor Walls work instead of Taylor Ward? Rays fans would practically give him away if they had the choice
@This one belongs to the Reds: Actually nobody forgets that. All discussion on McLain understands the contrast between his pre- and post-injury performance. It’s the entire point of this thread.
If I’m the Reds I make McLain earn a spot in spring training. They have plenty of alternatives for the right side of the infield including Lux, Stewart, Steer and Espinal.
Hopefully Espinal is no longer with the Reds come ST and Lux isn’t either (he doesn’t fit their roster).
Espinal and McLain are their only options at SS behind De La Cruz. If they non-tender Espinal they can’t option McLain without adding another utility IF.
There will be a dozen backup Shortstops available this winter in FA for cheap. Espinal is almost 100% guaranteed to be a nontender.
On the other hand Espinal’s still cheap and probably has a higher floor than anyone they’d bring in on a minor league deal, and he’d be easy to flip if not needed coming out of ST.
He has a higher floor? He’s a negative value player.
Career average 1.0 bWAR, 1.1 fWAR
He’s been a negative for the entire 3 years with the Reds. I don’t care what he did playing in Toronto 4 years ago. There’s a reason why he was nearly non-tendered last year and signed a deal far below his arb estimate – it’s because he’s easily replaceable.
And he’s gone.
I remember when this “genius” turned down that very fair contract extension that the Reds offered him. Everyone called me an idiot for saying how stupid it was for him to turn it down. He just Conforto’d himself out of tens of millions of dollars
What exactly was that very “fair” contract offer again?
What do reds fans think of the last 2 top picks lowder & burns? Any cy youngs in their future?
I think they both have a lot of potential, idk about cy young but I’m still happy to have them on the reds.
Doesn’t matter, Cy young is a voted on award aka bias. If they can put up 4+ war seasons, I’m happy and I believe both can
They could have had Nick Kurtz instead of Burns. Hindsight is 20/20, I know, but I’m betting they wish they had taken Kurtz as their rotation is their biggest strength and their need for hitting. That being said, Burns looks like he’s going to be a stud.
Or they could’ve had Charlie Condon instead of Burns. The draft is a crapshoot.
Cy Young has a big market bias so doubt even Greene would get one if he stayed healthy all year.
Just another carreer derailed by injuries, shoulder’s related are really hard to overcome.
Believe he had a torn labrum. It depends on the degree of the injury but it can be more difficult for position players than most people expect. Pitchers have a real hard time coming back from it sometimes. I would expect him to improve next season.
Don’t care to ever see him in a Reds uniform again tbh
In 2023, McLain’s stats far exceeded his metrics and regression was likely. The stats of the last two seasons are a reflection of who he is – light hitting 2B that is solid with the glove.
Possibly the Reds could deal the former UCLA Bruin to one of the LA teams for OF help. The Dodgers have four OF prospects in the MLB Top 65 while the Reds have four infielders in the MLB Top 100. The Angels have Adell and Ward due to be paid so they could well be available…
There were no stats in 2024, he missed the year.
I think McLain’s power regression had mostly to do with his shoulder injury. As we saw with Bellinger it takes awhile to regain power after such an injury.
Tito has to keep McLain on a shorter leash in 2026. If he doesn’t hit in April/May, bench him in favor of a Stewart/Lux platoon at 2nd. Reds have to get some offensive production from 2nd.
True, and even more so from 3B , 1B and DH. It is C, SS and maybe CF where you might sacrifice offense for defense.
And how much is McLain’s agent paying MLBTR to write this player-friendly tripe about his client? This belongs on a Reds fan blog, not an MLB news site.