Shota Imanaga will be returning to the Cubs, as The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney reports that the left-hander has accepted the team’s one-year, $22.025MM qualifying offer. The surprising decision means that Imanaga stays put after his time in Wrigleyville seemed to be over, following a series of declined contract options on the part of the Cubs and Imanaga himself.
The four-year, $53MM deal that Imanaga signed with Chicago in January 2024 guaranteed Imanaga $23MM over the first two seasons, and this offseason presented both sides with decisions. The Cubs had to decide whether or not to exercise a three-year option on Imanaga’s services that would’ve paid him $57.75MM over the 2026-28 seasons, and the team decided to decline. Imanaga then had a $15.25MM player option for just 2026 that he also declined, even though exercising that option would’ve then created a $42MM club option for the Cubs for next winter covering the 2027-28 seasons that (if declined) would’ve created a $15MM player option for Imanaga for 2027.
The Cubs issued Imanaga the qualifying offer to ensure some compensation if Imanaga signed elsewhere, yet as it turned out, Imanaga will indeed take a one-year pact to remain, with an extra $7.025MM added beyond the price of his player option. He would’ve locked in at least $30.5MM for himself by exercising his player option and generating that other player option for next winter, so he is currently leaving $8.475MM on the table given how this rather complicated situation turned out.
A 2026 season more in line with Imanaga’s impressive 2024 rookie campaign will easily land a multi-year contract worth far more than $8.475MM next winter, even though the lefty turns 33 in September. He’ll be able to re-enter next year’s free agent market without the QO compensation attached to his services. This removes one obstacle for Imanaga in free agency next winter, but more consistency on the mound will be the deciding factor.
Imanaga posted a 3.73 ERA, 20.6% strikeout rate, and an elite 4.6% walk rate over 144 2/3 innings for Chicago this season. Apart from his great control and the solid bottom-line ERA, the rest of Imanaga’s peripherals were almost all well below the league average. The problems included a lot of hard and high-impact contact, as only three pitchers allowed more home runs than Imanaga’s 31 big flies in 2025.
A hamstring strain cost Imanaga most of May and June, but he still managed a 2.40 ERA over his first 75 innings of the year before things started to turn in the second half. Twenty of Imanaga’s 31 home runs allowed came during his last 69 2/3 innings of the season, resulting in a 5.17 ERA. Things didn’t get any better in the playoffs, as the southpaw posted an 8.10 ERA and gave up three more homers in 6 2/3 frames of postseason work.
These issues with the long ball were also apparent in Imanaga’s 2024 season, if not to the same extreme level. He also allowed less hard contact and had a solid 25.1% strikeout rate, while delivering a 2.91 ERA over 173 1/3 innings. This excellent debut season earned Imanaga a fourth-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting, a fifth-place finish in Cy Young Award voting, and his first All-Star nod.
Given how well Imanaga was seemingly adjusting to the big leagues over his first season and a half, it seemed like a lock that the Cubs were going to exercise their options to keep Imanaga in the fold through 2028. However, his rough finish to the season seemingly changed the Cubs’ mind about such a substantial commitment.
Likewise, Imanaga and his reps at Octagon could’ve been concerned over how the market would react to his homer-heavy final 69 2/3 innings. MLB Trade Rumors ranked Imanaga 22nd on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents and projected him for a three-year, $45MM deal, but Imanaga and his reps at Octagon might have viewed the qualifying offer as an impediment to an acceptable contract. If Imanaga was going to have to settle for a short-term “prove it” type of deal anyway, accepting the QO allows him to aim for a bounce-back season in a familiar environment, and for a bigger one-year average annual value.
Returning to the Cubs also allows Imanaga to play for a team that should again be playoff contenders. Starting pitching should still continue to be a need for Chicago even with Imanaga back, but at least one box has now been checked off of the team’s rotation plans. Imanaga joins Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon, and Colin Rea in the projected starting five, with Justin Steele theoretically able to return from a UCL revision surgery relatively early in the 2026 campaign. Javier Assad and Ben Brown are also on hand, but the Cubs will want to bolster this group with at least one more reliable starter, given how the team didn’t trust its depth (including Imanaga) during the postseason.
Inset photo courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski — Imagn Images
Yuuuuuuuuck!!!!
I don’t think this is surprising at all. He upped his salary and now removes the QO moving forward.
Are you a Cubs fan
I’m not, or do you mean the Yuuuuuuuuck!!!! commenter? I suspect he is a Cubs fan.
The Yuck guy. I’m personally happy that he accepted because of the rumors surrounding him.
Who’s your favorite team? It should be obvious I love the Astros.
Wow. Shocker. I’m assuming Jed discussed him accepting the QO and then adding another year at ~$8M to make this more acceptable to both sides.
I predicted this one. I oppose a cap, it I do foresee many more high priced one year deals before the potential lockout.
First decision. I have a feeling Trent Grisham, Zac Gallen, and Brandon Woodruff are making their final decisions on whether to accept or not.
oops I just saw that Woodruff accepted it.
Seems like the cubs wanted him gone
Shouldn’t have offered him the QO then
Exactly
Unlikely. They just didn’t want the three year, no trade-clause portion of his contract to vest
Not a surprise.
That’s a bit of a surprise. And it pretty much guarantees the Cubs won’t get another decent starter.
For Imanaga and Grisham, I thought they’d decline, even though they’d probably accept. Gallen made the worst decision
I was surprised cubs decline $57mil/3 yrs
Even more surprised imanaga accepted QO
They dont want him
He coulda gotten 40-50mil as FA
And he struggled alot in wrigley field
If they wanted him gone they should not have offered the QO. I think it’s a no-brainer to accept.
@show
cubs wanted him gone
but they also wanted an xtra pick
they didnt think he’d accept QO
Then they didn’t check the stats for the second half and the playoffs. No way he turns it down after the way he finished. Poor decision by the FO.
I think Ricketts wanted a one year deal before a potential lockout.
I think this is a fair deal for both sides. Shota could have got maybe three years and $40 million and he rolls the dice to see if he can re-invent himself. High risk, high reward for Cubs.
Cubs need one more number 2 type starter. Horton, Steele, Free Agent, Boyd, Taillon, Shota, area, Assad.
I don’t think Shota was getting that with his fastball velocity falling off a cliff.
He struggled a lot in Wrigley with the wind blowing out. He pitches too high in the zone to be successful there in those situations. He needs to watch tape of Hendricks or Fergie and learn how to pitch there.
wrigley just didnt do him any favors this year. he has to stop giving up bombs so easily. his underlying #s were not that bad. he had a 3.08 era entering september, just had an atrocious final month. still finished top 5 in the majors in WHIP (0.98). maybe he bounces back with a strong 2026 and signs a nice deal elsewhere as a FA
Surprisingly, the wind didn’t blow out almost at all this year.
They don’t want him for a longer term, but for the short term they’re fine with it.
They want him. They did not want the NTC attached to his team option.
And a contender would have to deal with the QO. CBT payers would have to give up a 2nd, a 5th, and $1M in international bonus money. That’s too much for Imanaga.
“He could have gotten $40-50 Mil as FA” if that’s his market then it’s smart to accept, he got half of that for one season.
@lawson
If he struggles again in ‘26
He might be back in japan ‘27
Mayb taking an offer elsewhere would have been in his best interest
The dude needs to lose some weight and learn how to quit throwing gopher balls. A few upticks on his fastball velocity would help too. Then you have a pitcher.
Still saves the Cubs 35 million bucks. I’m not really surprised as I thought all the supposed bad feelings were just wind. Wonder if the Cubs will move somebody else like Boyd or Taillon? Well if he wants to stay he better learn to pitch down in the zone when the winds blowing out or this is gonna stink.
So you don’t trust the guy at all in the playoffs, his peripherals look awful in the 2nd half, and now you’re going to pay him 22 million, when you had a get out of jail free card?? Jed strikes again.
The guy was a downballot Cy Young candidate 13 months ago……..
I think they were hoping he’d reject it and sign elsewhere so they could get that extra pick.
Crap. The only way the Cubs would make a splash in free agency is if he left. Now they’re going to sit on their hands and do nothing except maybe trade for another number three starter at best. I hate when rich people act broke.
Bunch of guys taking the QO probably has a lot to with the CBA situation. Get paid today and fight another day.
That and these players are all inconsistent/injured usually. Torres had a hernia surgery after the season, Woodruff has injury-proneness of his own. Grisham came out of nowhere for the Yankees after swinging a wet noodle bat his entire career. Imanaga tanked completely.
Yup. They know the long-term offers won’t be there this offseason. Take the $22 million instead of holding out for a 2-year or 3-year offer that will never come.
I don’t mind this but at the same time they could flip him. Which I doubt they’ll do.
I don’t think they can at least before a certain date. Cubs now have 3 starters on the last year of their deals. makes me wonder if it forces Hoyer to move Taillon or Boyd?
That is by design. There will not be baseball in 2027. They want to pay as few players as possible during the lockout.
They don’t have to pay them regardless.
You really think the owners and PA will severely damage the game of baseball by having a strike? They know that it would hurt the sport if even a small lookout happened. They must avoid it at all cost. I know they’re greed billionaire wholes but they need to do everything possible to avoid any strike or lockout.
The owners can’t even agree among themselves as to what they want to offer the players. Small market owners don’t care about winning, they just want a cut of the media revenue from the large market teams. And they can sabotage any realistic agreement the large market owners would make with the MLBPA.
They need to figure s*** out before the CBA is up. The last thing anyone wants is baseball to not happen in 2027.
They would be stupid to have a Strike/Lockout especially if next year baseball takes a step back from the great advances it made this year. Having said that, They have both proven just how stupid they are in the past.
I’ve said this before but Manfred doesn’t want to have a cheating scandal with the Astros, a gambling scandal with Emmanuel Clase and the one he swept under the rug for Ohtani and then on top of that a work stoppage of any kind but you’re right they’ve proven to be stupid to in the past.
Mama always says that Stupid is as Stupid does.
Absolute steal
lol
Familiarity breeds contempt. Guy had a WHIP under 1.000 last year, rest of the peripherals be darned.
Cubs could always trade him….for a bag of balls, plus prospects.
I think this was expected all along. Cubs were not going to pick up the full NTC attached to the option, and Imanaga really wasn’t that bad until his mechanics fell apart late in the season. But he wasn’t going to get any decent offers from a contender with the QO attached.
This way he fits into the Cubs’ timeframe and if the labor strife gets too insane with the lockout he has the option to go home and pitch in Japan in 2027 and come back in 2028.
I don’t think they will move Boyd or Taillon. Boyd had 18-19 good starts and of those 8-9 were excellent (like 7 IP and 2 runs). Taillon wasn’t as good but he gave them a lot of length. Imanaga / Taillon / Rea is a reasonable #3/4/5 behind Horton and Boyd.
But I think they will move Assad, it was clear that Counsell didn’t trust him when he finally got off the injured list. And they may make a run at the newly posted Imai since Steele’s 2026 is going to be iffy coming back from injury.
Their other priority is building Horton up to consistently go 6 IP / 1-2 ER.
You forgot the Cubs also have Justin Steele coming off the Injury list.
My bad, I see you,did mention him.
I think Steele will be brought along slowly so that he’s ready for September and October.
Assad won’t cost much, believe it is his first arb year. Not a bad guy to keep stretched out for depth and long relief. Doubt if they trade him.
I’ve heard the mechanics thing before. He battled injuries throughout the year. Not that surprising his mechanics might have gotten off. With his stuff there is very little margin for error.
If the Cubs can get a season somewhere between his 2024 and 2025 then you have a solid middle of the rotation starter. Taillon was 4 yr/$68 mil. Add a little salary inflation and the fact it is just a one year deal, Shota’s QO deal seems reasonable to me.
This has to feel a bit awkward for both sides. It’s like a married couple decided to get divorced but still live together.
Awkward…
Now the Cubs can trade Imanaga to the Brewers straight up for Brandon Woodruff. Their contracts are the same….
I don’t mind Shota accepting, but this probably means Cubs won’t go after another starter,
I’m not so sure about that. I think it pretty much depends on where exactly they think Steele, Wiggins and Birdsell are and when they’ll be back. I think it takes them out of the 200 million dollar range( Which I’m not positive they were ever in) But I still think a trade for a young TOR arm that will be cheaper but hopefully have options. As soon as they’re eligible Steele and Birdsell will hit the 60 day and be off the 40 man. And since the Cubs baby all their younger arms and have them on pitch counts they all throw strikes to get 5 innings in ala Horton. A lot of Hortons hardest hit balls were on 2 strike pitches. Not sure which philosophy is right but it is what it is, They aren’t going to change.
You’re right, Hoyer might get a starter via trade. Cease is definitely off the table now I’d think.
I can understand him accepting.
Yes, but can you accept him understanding? It works both ways.
I know there might be a little bit of a language barrier but I think he understands and I accept that.
Wonder for the reason the four chose to accept the QO. Guessing they didn’t think teams would offer as much with them attached to draft pick compensation?
How underwhelming,but he fits right in with the rest of the guys who flopped from July-Oct. lol Cubs.
Welcome back Hanley….didnt think the unemployment checks would run out so quickly.
Surprised on this. Sorta felt like with the declines he would’ve tried to go elsewhere. I like Shota a lot more than most I think though.
Shota has pitched great or 11 of the 12 months he’s been here. If he pitches 5 great months next year it’s fine. You still have to win enough games early to be in a position to play in the Playoffs, Something Hoyer doesn’t seem to realize in his Bullpen by cheap strategy. The wind blows in mostly until late May at least and then it’s just a matter of walking into the park and looking at the flags and adapting. He didn’t learn that last year. Hopefully he does this year.
This is bizarre, hard to imagine another team wouldn’t take a chance on about the same AAV over multiple years after strong numbers in most of the time he pitched in Chicago. The entire Shota saga has been a weird one.
Fair for me to feel like this is a defeat for the Cubs? Maybe Shota will be great again next year, and it’s only one year, but it feels like the Cubs didn’t want him and now not only do they have him, but he’s getting $22 mil in one year.
I’m fine with this arrangement. He gets $20 million guaranteed for 1 year instead of $30+ for 2 years or $50+ for 3 years. It gives him a chance to get healthy and re-establish himself as a middle of the rotation guy. If he sucks again, or can’t recapture the magic, then there’s no commitment beyond this season. It’s worth the gamble.
It should not prohibit them from pursuing another starter, especially with Steele returning from injury and Horton still not having pitched a full season. Plus, Boyd and Taillon have their own history of injury concerns, and you can never have enough depth.
Happy to see Shota back! Hopefully the cubs don’t stop here. Sign Cease or trade for Joe Ryan.
I think it’s a positive that he’s back. It’s only one year and at the going rate. He’s imperfect and so are the others available. Why is there only one QO rate instead of position based compensation like the franchise tag? I think they have sufficient starting pitching assets available for now. Going all in with Cassie and Alcantara as a platoon in right field is my suggestion. My trade suggestions would be far too radical of surgery for the Cubs faithful, in my opinion.
Based on Jed’s and Carter’s comments during the GM meetings last week. I got a feeling that they didn’t want Shota back. They seemed like they weren’t really endorsing him and prepared to move on. Maybe it’s just my interpretation. Well, he’s remaining on the team.
It’s raining HRs, hallelujah, its raining HRs hallelujah
All of you complaining… geez. I’m a Shota fan always have been always will be. Welcome back Shota!!