Right-hander Michael King has declined his mutual option with the Padres, according to a report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He’ll head into free agency and collected a $3.75MM buyout rather than stay with the Padres on what would have been a $15MM salary for next year.
King’s decision was entirely expected. Mutual options are virtually never exercised, and King will need to top just $11.25MM in free agency in order to come out ahead in making the choice to decline his option. That’s a number he’s essentially guaranteed to clear, both due to the high price of starting pitching in recent free agent classes and thanks to King’s own success in recent years. After moving to the rotation as a member of the Yankees in late August 2023, King fired off eight starts where he posted a 1.88 ERA with a 31.4% strikeout rate to end the season. After being shipped to San Diego as part of that offseason’s Juan Soto trade, he turned in a 2.95 ERA in 173 2/3 innings of work during his first full-time season as a starter and finished seventh in NL Cy Young award voting last year.
2025 wasn’t quite as strong as 2024, as King was limited to just 15 starts by a nerve issue in his throwing shoulder and a subsequent knee issue. King did return to the mound late in the year, but didn’t look like his usual dominant self with a 5.74 ERA across 15 2/3 September innings. He looked much better in a scoreless inning of relief work against the Cubs, however, and struck out all three batters he faced without issue. That’s good news, since prior to the injury King looked as dominant as ever with a 2.59 ERA and 3.26 FIP across his first ten starts of the year. While he finished the year with a 24.7% strikeout rate against an 8.4% walk rate, those figures were 28.4% and 7.6% prior to his injury.
Thanks to King’s dominance when healthy, he enters free agency with a real chance at a strong multi-year deal so long as suitors are convinced that this year’s shoulder woes are behind him. King is marketing his age-31 season, so between that fact and his shoulder problems this season it’s possible he’ll be boxed out of the five-, six-, or seven-year offers that top of the market aces have gotten in recent years. Even so, he should have the opportunity to clean up fairly handsomely on the open market in a way that would’ve been hard to imagine when looking at his first few years in the league as a middle reliever for the Yankees.
In the short-term, the Padres seem all but certain to extend King a Qualifying Offer, which King seems equally likely to reject. That process will leave King tied to draft pick compensation this winter. Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one. If King departs San Diego, the Padres would receive a compensatory pick after the fourth-round in the 2026 draft. Of course, that would only come in to play if King doesn’t re-sign with the Padres. The team’s clear needs at the top of the rotation mean that a reunion can’t be entirely ruled out, but in recent years San Diego has eschewed giving out large paydays to free agent starters in favor of a more creative approach.
And so it begins. Love baseballs offseason. Let’s see Skubal traded out of nowhere like Tucker was last year. MOAR MOVES!!!
Shut up
Your schtick has gotten really old.
This is exhibit #1 in why Dodger fans always make fun of the Padre fan
Not reading all that lol. I’m not arguing online with Dad fans a day after a Dodgers title. Have a good day and good luck next season.
Padres are a good team, backed by a great organization. Preller made that happen.
However, the Dodgers are the worlds BEST team, now proven twice in a row. The Dodgers have a class organization, deep history, a strong farm system, and almost literally, a bank account with no bottom. (I’ve explained why, detailing how the Dodgers make their money, vis-a-vis the Pads and 90% of the rest of the MLB teams, others have argued that the Dodgers don’t make much more money than any other team. So, I don’t want to replay that argument, thus forcing the critics to lie once again.)
The Padres CANNOT keep up against the Dodgers. There’s always hope, flukes, player’s injuries that might impact the Dodgers while the Padres remain healthy and a half dozen of the right players have career years, yes, hope. The REALISTIC hope for the Padres, is to get into the playoff’s consistently, so that they can provide good entertainment when they lose to the Dodgers before they reach the World Series.
In other words, the Padres don’t have a chance in hell of GETTING TO the World Series, let alone winning the whole thing. Not now, and not for a LONG, long time in the future, unless the Pads can coe up with $1B in extra revenue, every year, the kind of “F” and “U” money that enable the to ignore any luxury taxes, or other restrictions that the MLB cartel chooses to levy, against the .. um … non-favored “farm teams” in the MLB. Sour grapes? Only to a Dodger fan, who feels that W.S. wins are their birthright.
MLB runs a weird “baseball league”.
Compliments to the Dodgers and their fans. They went out, worked hard, competed, and won their second W.S.. No one can take anything away from their effort or the results.
Stop say “we as baseball fans”, as you beat this dead horse. I am a baseball fan, and you arent even close. You are a troll, nothing more, and you’re about to be the most muted guy on this site. Probably the most impressive thing you ever accomplished in life. Seriously, you’re embarraing your father.
Is he even a Padres fan? Just seems like he wants to whine constantly today. Every thread whine whine whine
Good to have classic towinagain back. There was a brief and uncharacteristic optimistic (or at least non-negative) period late in the season, and it felt like something was wrong with the world. Nice to have you back!
Towinagain
Are you having a “No King” protest?
To win again
It was “No Michael King”…
And you were complaining about the Dodgers’ coronation…
Not partisan…
Please, tell us how you feel.
@towinagain
I was thinking the same exact thing. the rest of the league should just start wearing Dodgers arm sleeve patches.
#WashingtonGenerals
totally makes sense for SD to tag him with a QO. with the buyout, $22MM or so on the offer and he’s not going to miss free agency for what amounts to roughly $5MM more than he would have received since he would forgo the buyout too. hope Baltimore signs him as a 2nd rotation piece behind a more sure/innings eating TOR. (F Valdez, the guy that punishes his own catchers? lol)
Standard Padres fan – more concerned with the Dodgers than their own team.
Nowhere near as bad as Cub fans.
I find most Cubs and Padres fans both to be cool. Every blog gets one or two outliers.
Unfortunately with no hard cap, they could just keep winning it all.
towinagain, wrong you are. If the owners that RECEIVE their revenue sharing each year, actually SPEND that money on players. Then, and only then will there be a competitive league.
Can everyone stop whining about the Dodgers? The Blue Jays probably should have won.
As a Red Sox fan i’m glad the Dodgers won. Because its a message to all fans, tell your owners to spend more money. If the Dodgers would have lost, all other owners (including mine) would’ve been saying, “see, if the Dodgers dont win spending all that money, we shouldnt be spending that much”.
Bull…..every owner is a billionaire, every franchise can spend more money. Are you really telling me that the Brewers, after multiple playoff runs cant bring in another player? Are you expected to believe that the Orioles cant sign pitchers? And, are you really telling me that tge team with the highest average tix price cant cross the threshold?
Owners have been crying poverty for 150 years. Its just that now they can feed their fans an expanded (mediocrity) playoffs, and, all the analytics to show that you can build a “playoff” team on the cheap. And now the fans have bought into it. If theres a lockout the fans will almost universally blame the greedy players!
Dont hate the Dodgers cause they won….they were the only team built to win.
It’s easy to win if you have the most money to spend. I myself would love to see the Nats beat the Dodgers and knock them out of the playoffs.
Mark Lerner’s publicly acknowledged net worth is $6.4 billion. Their 2025 attendance was 1.92 million. Gross revenue $325m.
You can beat the Dodgers, Spend more money!
These guys are more worried about the Boardroom than the locker room.
So much for the theory that he would accept it.
Who said he would? Lmao
Word!
I never read or heard that theory lol.
Towin is doing his level best to undermine solid true Padres fans like yourself.
So make $15mm or make $3.75mm and then make 9 figures in free agency? Yea, sounds like an obvious choice.
He will probably go back to the Yankees.
I predict the highest bidder…
Nonzero chance that that is the Yanks.
He grew up as a Yankees fan, so it is possible if the Yankees can match the other teams offers.
I’d say very, very close to zero. They higher priorities than starting pitching.
Just make sure your around on MLB Traderumors when he signs with the Yankees so that we can pick your brain again with respect to your baseball knowledge….
He is not signing with Yankees, their money dedicated to Tucker and Alonso.
what’s the dollar value of childhood fandom by the way? if a competing team, say the Red Sox offer $100,000 MORE than the Yankees’ offer of X… would King think fondly of his days old Yankee Stadium and pine for the days with his little league team in attendance?
What if the difference was $200k, $500k… $1MM… what’s the value of being able to play for your childhood team?
Honestly, I think it would be a rare case (<10%) where a player wouldn't just sign for the biggest contract. So I'm not as confident of your premise as you seem to be.
Alonso won’t be a Yankee. It will likely be Bellinger or Tucker. Grisham could always come back with the QO though.
Probably anyone but the padres
Nice try Biscuits! Congrats to your Doyers though
I think he takes the highest bidder in a pitcher friendly park on a competitive team. LA, SD, Toronto, Mets, Phillies, Atlanta. One of those teams.
I wonder if the Giants fit on that list as well. They are making interesting moves.
You just know the Yanks are back in on him.
Vegas, I don’t think most players look at the “friendly park”. If they did, no pitcher would sign in Colorado. They only say SHOW ME THE MONEY.
No player actually wants to be Severino 2.0 either
QO will be next. Think king will do better in free agency than some predict.
Definitely going to get a QO. I’ll still be shocked if he gets a 5 or 6 year deal for 9 figures this off-season.
2025 – missed 89 games
2022 – missed 76 games (67 reg & 9 playoff)
2021 – missed 57 games
Will teams throw caution to the wind and expect him to be healthier over these next 5+ years than the previous 5 years now that he’s in his 30’s?
Some of it just comes down to cost of doing business.
The only question is what quality of performance you *do* get when he’s healthy. Injuries? Let’s be honest. Very few SP these days are Ironman workhorse types that dont wind up under the knife at some point.
Yeah that’s why I think he will get paid. Plus his injuries last year don’t seem like something that will scare teams. Especially if there is no lingering nerve issue.
No one ever said very specifically what King’s injury was, and the Padres can’t release health information on a player, without his consent due to Federal law (HIPAA). His injury sounds a lot like neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS), which has ended pitcher’s careers. Who can guarantee a bidding team that there’s “no lingering nerve issue”? I think his injury history will be prominent. Before teams pay him, he’ll have to have a physical. If his 2025 health problem is TOS, it’ll definitely impact any final offer.
Overall, however, you’re correct. The MLB owners are paying crazy money for any starting pitcher who can get near to a 4.00 ERA and win a dozen games. Average pitchers and pitcher’s with risky histories, are getting paid well. We’ll see what happens; should be interesting.
QO’s for King, Cease, Suarez and maybe Arraez?
Yes, yes, no, and no.
YBC- agreed. Suarez and Arraez definitely don’t get the QO.
No chance QO goes to suarez or arraez
King signs with the Tigers to be the #2 starter behind Skubal, who stays in Detroit because no one agrees to pay the crippling price Detroit is asking. Flaherty opts out and they sign Verlander too.
More like the number 1 when Skubal is traded for a ransom
It would have to be a ransom…MacLean, Tong, Benge, Williams from the Metstype thing or more. I don’t even see the Mets doing that though. Add pieces around him and at worst he doesn’t sign and Jobe fills his spot next year.
There’s no chance on earth the Mets do that. McLean is off limits. I don’t think they’ll even make a push for Skubal, honestly. They already have some hefty contracts on the books and need to address first base and the bullpen this offseason. In order to not have a $400 million payroll, they need to supplement the big contracts with cheaper talent. Tong, Benge, Williams, Sproat, McLean are all very valuable from a cost perspective.
I agree RCT. I was just using them as an example as their name comes up the most in rumors. I can’t see anyone paying the price the Tigers will ask and prospects often don’t pan out so the Tigers would be playing Russian roulette.
Build a package for Skubal (+ more on Detroit’s side) for Seattle’s Jrod and Kirby or Cincy’s Greene, Lowder and Stewart then there is reason to listen but those types of deals make no sense for the other team and are never going to happen. Prospect trades go wrong all the time. Detroit just has to look back at the JV trade to Houston where they have a backup catcher to show for it.
On one hand, ya can’t blame King. Baseball is a both a business, and fickle sport. You can be “king of the world” (pun intended) one day, and out of baseball the next. King may have pitched his last MLB inning – unlikely, but health is variable like that. So, good luck to the kid.
On the other hand, he underperformed when he arrived, improved, got hot, and then cratered due to his health issues. That’s his record with the Padres, regardless of his good intentions. As a Padres fan, seeing guys come to the team, and MOUTH words like Tony Gwynn wanting to be a lifetime Padre, well, they seem like carpet baggers to me. I LOVE the kids we have like Tatis and Merrill, who put their money behind their words. Both could have taken more (i.e. Tatis, but having a shorter contract with option/outs, Merrill in simple terms), but choose to play baseball for the Padres, instead. That counts WAY above any potential King had for the Padres.
So, overall, I’m … meh … about King. In Niebla we trust. Honestly, I’m shocked that guys like King and Cease value his guidance so little. There are pitchers who used to come to SD specifically because Balsley was the pitching coach, and the same applies now to Niebla’s reputation. However, King obviously considers Niebla and his San Diego teammates worth much less than his buyout price. So bet it, again, good luck kid. (As a guy named Profar about those mutual option buyouts, and how well they work out).
Yep, it’d be a blast if the Rockies were able to land King (yes, blast is kinda a pun there, too). Maybe Cease, too. Just kidding. NO fan is THAT vengeful, wishing such a fate to any pitcher, though … um … yeah, seeing Ohtani traded to Colorado might be a lot of fun! 😁
King did solid by the Padres taking that deal last off-season in the first place. He basically said you can pay me 1/2 of my ARB3 salary last year and the other 1/2 as a buyout in a mutual option that wasn’t going to be picked up by both.
It was a pretty classy move. The team didn’t have a lot of cash to spend on the ’25 payroll at that point. Heck that generosity on King’s part covered the 2025 salaries for Pivetta, Heyward & Joe.
Good point. I also forgot that the Padres will provide a qualifying offer, which with his buyout, could give him a good $$$ year, while allowing him to increase his value by having a solid 2026. I’m actually thinking that this is the direction King (and AJP) will go.
He can earn more than a QO. Best case scenario for the Padres is a 1+1 deal with a moderately high AAV.
King back to the Yankees!
Cole
Schlittler
Fried
Rodon
King
Schmidt and Hampton start on DL and when healthy fill in the pen or rotation.
Warren, Cruz, Lalane all may get turns in rotation as well.
Lots of arms to use in rotation, pen, or for trades.
Gil will be dealt for Steven Kwan
Jazz will be dealt to Cincy and the Yanks will trade for Brennan Donovan.
Bellinger will be signed to 3-4 year contract to play first and late fill in outfield.
Jones and Dominguez will battle for playing time in CF with Bellinger a late inning replacement.
Donovan will be everyday second baseman until Volpe returns to be super utility.
Ha-Seong Kim will be signed to play SS
Kaz Okamoto will be signed to play first and platoon at third.
Rice will be DH/c/1st base option
Much more versatile lineup
Stanton and Jazz and Gil are all out
Posting it into existence….
Guess he’s fired up to get paid and sit on someone else’s IL………..
In positive news, Padre social media teased that the new City Connect uniform will be a Dia De Los Muertos theme, in a video that included an uncredited appearance from WWE wrestler “Dirty” Dominick Mysterio.
That unironically makes me happy.
I used to watch wrestling with my gramps. I find it interesting how the WWE has been able to go even more mainstream with an international appeal. Fans do love the soap opera. Logan Paul, Travis Scott, Bad Bunny, Cardi B. are/were paid by them to do promos. TKO stock has done well since its fairly recent IPO.
A pretty good QO offer / negotiate a 2 / 3 year deal with an opt out candidate.
What about JOE KING??
Suarez, Hart, and Diaz will join the list of Padres players as free agents in the next few days.
Going into this off-season the Padres are in a much better place than last off-season. There are no positions other than DH/1B that have to be filled. What I would like to see happen is Preller re-signing O’Hearn and King while letting the rest walk. Give a QO to Cease.
O’Hearn is one of the top 3 FA at 1B and there is not much else that may be available in trade other than Casas at that position. 3/$50-55 million seems to me like what it will take. For King a prove it type of contract with an opt out after the 1st season. 3/$60-64 million with an opt out after season one and a 4th season at a deep discount ($10 million?) if King is injured in year one and misses most of the season.
If they make those 2 signings, the Padres are ready to go to into 2026 with just a few depth pieces needed. The starting lineup and the 1st 5 or 6 in the rotation are there.
Lineup
C – Fermin
1B – O’Hearn
2B – Cronenworth
SS – Bogaerts
3B – Machado
LF – Laureano
CF – Merrill
RF – Tatis
DH – Sheets
That lineup compares well with any team in the league. There is power in that lineup. 4 guys that have hit 20+ HR in the past 2 seasons (Machado, Tatis, Merrill, and Laureano) and 4 more that have put up 15+ (Cronenworth, O’Hearn, Bogaerts, and Sheets).
Rotation
Pivetta
Musgrove
King
Darvish
Vasquez
Sears
3 TOR starters in Pivetta, Musgrove and King and 3 depth starters, That’s a very solid rotation. As he already said, Preller would still like to add depth to the starting pitching staff. Injuries always take their toll. I think that at least one reliever will be converted to starting prior to the start of the season so that may be the path to having additional depth. Preller has always been exceptional at adding relievers to the mix. The pen will still be a strength no matter what.
The bench is solid without any additions, but I think Preller will add a bat with some pop to it. As it stands now the bench is Campusano (C/DH), Johnson (OF), Rosario (IF), and one of Ornelas (OF), McCoy (MI) or Wagner (MI). Two of those guys, Rosario and Ornelas, were slated to start last season with the Padres before Rosario broke his ankle on a bad field in Winter League ball and the Padres signed Heyward, Joe, and Gurriel instead of giving Ornelas a legitimate shot. That proved to be a big mistake. Campusano was the best hitter in AAA showing the ability to hit for average and power and take a walk. The key was being given every day at bats. In my mind, he should play nearly daily as backup catcher and then DH or 1B when not behind the plate. Fermin will get the lion’s share of starts behind the plate, but Campusano is too good of a hitter to allow to waste away in AAA.
I hope that Preller has learned his lesson and doesn’t sign Iglesias or anyone else on the downside of 35. Let the kids show what they can do with regular play off the bench.
While i see where you are going but you asking for a whole lot of additional payroll just in relievers to get that. i would estimate you are adding diaz (20) Suarez (15 maybe more) Hart (probably the club option of 5) and you pretty much ate up the money dropping off maybe a little more for tax purposes.
This also doesnt include option for Laureano or arbitrations which starts for Miller and you still are short atleast 1 SP a 1B and the biggest problem of the padres quality depth. The padres are top heavy and one injury seems to pretty much destroy the position players.
With the additions and the likely arbitrations i would say you are probably adding 100M roughly maybe a little more after arbitrations (around 40-50 net increase if my math is right).
2 questions:
will Suarez and Diaz sign knowing that they would be potentally in a 3 way fight with Miller for closer rather than sign with another team where they are pretty much guaranteed it with the same money?
Ornelas played in PCL which if my memory serves right really inflates numbers for hitters. Also looking at his pg stats and even averages fell a bit and if im reading roster resource right he is no longer even a top 10 prospect. Is there something im missing on him? He seems in best of scenarios a AAAA player if that. I havent seen him and literally going by stats, Is there something i might be missing but he seems more like a taxi squad than quality depth.
Roll – I think he was just saying those 3 were about to file for FA. It’s Diaz the C not Diaz the RP. I don’t think he is suggesting that SD is signing any of these 3 (or Diaz the RP).
I think you misunderstood what I was saying.
Suarez will opt out so he will be a FA.
Diaz will be a FA. The Padres are not picking up his option.
Hart will be a FA. The Padres are not picking up his option.
Those are players that will not be Padres in 2026.
The Padres will not be adding extra payroll. Including King, Cease, Arraez, Suarez, Diaz, Hart, the balance of Hosmer’s contract, and others, the Padres have $70+ million coming off the books. Signing O’Hearn and King adds $37 million or so back. They are still under last season’s payroll even with the increases in arbitration. Laureano has a $6.5 million team option. I included that in their payroll.
There is this stat called wRC= that takes league and ballpark into account. Ornelas has been an above average hitter each of the last 3 seasons in the minors. Being listed as a prospect in no way tells us a player’s value to the team. Ornelas can hit and does so at an above average level which is what you want from your 4th OF. That is valuable from a 4th OF that is making MLB minimum. He is not being expected to take over full time in LF.
The Padres really need to add some power to that lineup and O’Hearn had a .110 ISO after the trade which is basically Arraez territory. He’ll be 33 in July, 3/50-55m is way too rich for me. At 2/24m it’d make a lot more sense and even then he’d be plan B or C when trying to add some pop.
Can’t believe they were 28th in HR’s last year. Really hoping they add a bat that has a legit shot at 30 bombs and not be a total 1 trick pony. Likely via trade and some player coming off a down year. A Jake Burger type probably is what we’re looking at, someone not going to make or cost too much to acquire.
They have 178m tied up to 12 players not counting any of their arb guys. Not ideal.
I could see Preller making some creative trades to get the likes of Peralta and/or Matsui off the books to free up some payroll. Like using Ray Kerr to unload Matt Carpenter.
fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/padres
I’d prefer a Naylor reunion.
that was my misake and yes i forgot about Elias Diaz. Everything was Fermin and Campusano so kind of forgot he was there. Also misunderstood you saying they were FA i thought you were signing and since both Suarez and Hart were relievers i made the mistake of thinking Diaz the relief pitcher.
I excluded the hosmer dropping off because you are adding basically the same to increases in other players like Croneworth and Machado so it evens out.
If you are valueing ohearn as 3rd best 1b its probably going to be around 15M range as Alonso and Naylor going to be pushing mid to high 20s with king on any pillow contract being very front loaded with no less than 25 for first year with opt outs as he had more recent success than walker and he got 21+ coming off major surgery so starting point is 40 for the 2 but i expect higher for both mainly for the hype king had coming into the season.
I know of WRC+ but in the minors he is barely average last season (which i alluded to in all his stats) and went from a 105 to 102. I would expect that to be top end 85..Also his first stint in AAA he was an 83 coming off major 70 game stint in AA. Outside of that one stint since 2021 he has been 100-110 so i would expect below average in the majors. Even with that big spurt he ended up being 112 for that season due to an 83 WRC at AA that year.
For the padres especially, they had OF miss significant time over the last few years or had that 4th outfielder be a regular so for them i would think they would want a quality 4th OF that could log regular time.
O’Hearn is not a huge power threat in any case so whether he saw a dip in his ISO after the trade is totally irrelevant. He will get more than 2/24. Watch what is said by Adams here when their top 50 FA list comes out.
The Padres players hit 22% less home runs than their career averages last season. Part of that was Shildt’s focus on small ball. Arraez led the league in sac bunts. Shildt took the bat out of the hands of the best contact hitter in baseball 16 times with men on base. The Padres laid down 11 more sac bunts than the next highest team and at 48 successful sac bunts had more than doubled MLB average of 21. In 2024 they had 28 and in 2023 they had 22. Just letting some of these guys swing away in those situations will add a few points to the slg%.
The Padres are in a better position payroll-wise than most teams. There are 11 teams that have 2/3 of their payroll tied up in 6 or 7 guys. According to you its 12 guys for the Padres. I only count 10 BTW.
Including all the arbitration eligible raises plus $6.5 million for Laureano and $4.45 million for Peralta the Padres have approximately $198 million on the books. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ld1ftYB715JAX9qYdQ…
Suarez, Diaz, and Hart will join King as free agents in the next day or two. Guys like Rosario, Morgan, and Rodriguez who are making the minimum will join the 26-man roster.
Peralta and Matsui are making peanuts relatively speaking. There is no reason to give up anyone to try to get rid of that small of an amount of payroll, especially since they were relatively productive. A 3.14 ERA and a 3.98 ERA are both better than MLB average. No need to trade them at all.
He is going to cost much more than O’Hearn because of his age.
Being an average MLB hitter = quality. Ornelas was on the IL with plantar fasciitis for a huge chunk of the season. The last 3 season in the minors between AA and AAA he has an above average wRC+. If you watched any of his games, you know he can hit. Period.
Alonso will be pushing $30 million and Naylor is in 2nd tier at around $18-20 million AAV. O’Hearn will undoubtedly get around the same as Naylor in AAV, just fewer years.
Fun fact, Josh Naylor’s 2025 bWAR of 3.1 matches that of Ryan O’Hearns career. One of those guys is an 18m/yr player, the other, not so much.
Your fun fact is irrelevant. Over the past 2 seasons they have averaged 2.2 and 2.3 WAR respectively. Their OPS+ has been 122 and 123 respectively. O’Hearn is going to get very close to the same AAV as Naylor. The difference in what they get paid will be mostly in the length of the deal and that is because of the difference in their ages. One is going to get $17-18 million over 3 years. The other $17-18 million over 5 years.
I think someone will pay Naylor 20m* aav. I think O’Hearn will land around the 15m range.
I do think King will get a bigger deal than people think. I get his injury history but I think a team will still offer him a 100m+ deal. Probably in the 5 year range.
I think the Padres will wait out free agency until Feb/March to sign anyone worth much. Perhaps Preller finds a trade or two to fill a hole or two.
They will add a bat or two and a starter or two. Just think we will be waiting a bit before that happens.
Preller said his priority was starting pitching and would like to add a couple of arms. There are 2 former MLB players from NPB that I would consider worth a flyer and that fits with Preller’s MO. There are also several big names on the probable trade table.
He mentioned wanting to bring back Cease or King if they can, but Cease is going to get the larger contract of the 2 by far. While I think you are right that King will get a larger deal than most think, most are saying a 1-year deal for $20-25 million. I think he will get 3 with an option. Preller loves to give prove it deals with an opt out after the 1st season and this seems like the perfect opportunity to do so.
With the FA market so slim at the Padres stated targets and positions of need, starting pitching and 1B, I doubt that Preller can wait.
My guess is a 5 year deal for king. Of course that’s just a guess.
1b and starters have a few options. Especially in the mid tier starter range. Not a lot of top flight guys. So I think we will see him wait it out unless he makes a trade.
There are 3 options at 1B, Alonso, Naylor, and O’Hearn. Unless you consider Bellinger and Murakami as options, the rest are not starters.
As far as starting pitching there are a lot of options for back of the rotation starters, but with Darvish out Preller is going to have to think higher up the food chain for the team to contend. If we are saying that Cease and Valdez are pricing themselves out of coming here, that leaves King, Suarez, and Woodruff on the FA market and Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Pablo Lopez on the trade market. Possibly Freddy Peralta.
Waiting potentially means getting no one that fits the team’s needs. I think it we will know by the beginning of the Winter Meetings if Preller has been given the go ahead to make the additions needed.
There are a couple of other 1b options that played overseas last year as well. I would def count the last two as 1b options. There are also likely some 1b trade options as well. Also guys like Hoskins who will be an option.
I think the padres best chance of getting a top 3 starter type will come from moving a pen arm to being stretched out. I think we could see 2-3 guys from the pen at least stretched out this spring.
I find it unlikely the padres sign any of the pitchers you mentioned. Unless they sit on the market for a while. Hence the wait and see.
From a trade side I expect Preller to attempt to fill a starters spot. Though who knows if he will lineup on anyone.
I’m fully prepared for this offseason to look a lot like last years offseason. Perhaps the starting pitching is such a hole that preller doesn’t wait as long but I think the chances are still pretty high he does.
“The last 3 season in the minors between AA and AAA he has an above average wRC+”
as i said barely average by your wrc measure
2021 – 104 (A+)
2022 – 104
2023 – 112
2024 – 105
2025 – 102
2023 was the anomaly as he crushed for half a season at AA for 134 and then dropped to 83 when he came back to AAA which is more in line with the last 5 years in the minors. The 134 could be just the hot streak ala Kalenic that gave the mariners and braves belief he was something special for those couple of months but in the minors. So barely average in the minors as i said earlier. One or two bad games instead of good ones would flip it from above to below aka barely.
Majors if i remember hearing right is a 10-20% drop of minors vs majors so that would drop him at most in the lower 80-90 so below average to barely below average. Even projections have him below average next season at 96. Yes i know projections but at the consistency he has been for years makes sense.
fangraphs.com/players/tirso-ornelas/22566/stats?po…
King tied for the league lead in shutouts with a meaty 1. Go for the gusto, Mike.
All for bringing him back to the Yanks.
He’s destined to be picked up as the Dodgers’ closer
Feel like AJ will try to put together a mix of prospects and current MLB players for either/both Joe Ryan/Freddie Peralta.