The qualifying offer is one of the key mechanisms of free agent season, as teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to decide whether or not to issue the one-year contract (this winter worth $22.025MM) to eligible free agents. If a player has played with his team throughout the entire 2025 season and hasn’t received a QO in the past, he is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer, and thus the player can opt to accept the one-year pact and forego free agency altogether to stick with his club.
If the player rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive a draft pick if the free agent signs elsewhere. Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club….
Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays
If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of next year’s draft. (For instance, the Orioles received both the 30th and 31st overall picks in the 2025 draft since qualified free agents Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander each signed for more than $50MM with their new teams.) If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick in the 2026 draft would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round, which is usually somewhere in range of the 70th-75th overall selection.
Looking at these teams’ members of the 2025-26 free agent class, the Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen and the Brewers’ Brandon Woodruff are the only likely-to-reasonable qualifying offer candidates. You could also make a case for the Tigers issuing Jack Flaherty a QO if he rejects his $20MM player option for 2026. Notable impending free agents like Seattle’s Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez are examples of players who are ineligible for the QO because they only joined the Mariners partway through the season.
Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Braves, Nationals, Angels, White Sox
For these teams, their compensatory 2026 draft pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether or not the player signed for at least $50MM). The Red Sox were a member of this group in 2024 because they weren’t tax-payors, and thus Boston received the 75th overall pick of the 2025 draft as compensation when Nick Pivetta rejected a qualifying offer and subsequently signed with the Padres.
The chief name to watch here is Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker, who will probably command the largest deal of any player in the 2025-26 free agent class. Chicago could also issue a QO to Shota Imanaga if he becomes a free agent, but that would first require the Cubs to decide on a series of club options and attached player options for Imanaga, so quite a few hoops have to be jumped through for Imanaga to actually hit the open market.
Teams In Limbo: Astros, Rangers, Red Sox
It is usually pretty obvious which teams are well over or well under the luxury tax threshold ($241MM in 2025), and sites like RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts do a great job of estimating the ebbs and flows of each team’s tax status over the course of a season or multiple seasons. The league’s accounting office naturally has the full set of salary data from each team, and thus we won’t know each club’s official status until MLB releases their information in December.
For now, we’ll keep Houston in its own little category because its tax status isn’t entirely clear. RosterResource has the Astros with an approximate tax number of $238.2MM that keeps them under the threshold, while Cot’s has Houston over the line with a $244MM tax number. If the Astros have indeed exceeded the tax line for a second straight year, they’ll face the increased “second-time payor” surcharge of 30% on every dollar spent over $241MM, which works out to $900K if Cot’s $244MM projection is accurate.
While the actual tax bill of $900K is negligible, the more sizeable impact for the Astros would be in regards to impending free agent Framber Valdez. The veteran southpaw will surely be issued a qualifying offer, so if he signs elsewhere, the Astros’ pick will sit before the start of the third round if it turns out that they stayed under the tax threshold. If their tax number is indeed more than $244MM, Houston joins the next category of teams.
Two other teams merit consideration for the “limbo” zone. Both Cot’s and RosterResource had Texas staying under the tax line, and both sites had the Red Sox over going the line, but those are unofficial estimates within a reasonable margin of error in either direction. Since those projections were all within $5.5MM of the CBT threshold, however, that’s enough of a margin of error that the league’s final calculations might tell a different story. Reporting from the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant and DLLS Sports’ Jeff Wilson at the trade deadline indicated that the Rangers exceeded the tax threshold.
The Rangers don’t have any free agents who should get consideration for a qualifying offer anyway. Merrill Kelly is ineligible after changing teams midseason, and no one else in their group of impending free agents warrants a salary in the $22MM range. Tyler Mahle might’ve been on that path, but he missed a few months midseason with a rotator cuff injury. Boston’s Lucas Giolito is a borderline QO case, plus his season-ending elbow issue may weigh into whatever decision the Red Sox make on the qualifying offer front.
Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Padres, Yankees
If a team exceeds the luxury tax line, their compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2026 draft. As an example, the Braves were tax-payors in 2024, so they got the 136th overall pick in the 2025 draft when Max Fried rejected Atlanta’s qualifying offer and signed with the Yankees.
As it turns out, many of the most obvious qualifying-offer candidates of this winter’s free agent class happen to come from tax-paying teams. The Phillies have Kyle Schwarber and Ranger Suarez, the Padres have Dylan Cease and Michael King, the Blue Jays have Bo Bichette, the Mets have Edwin Diaz (who is likely to opt out of his deal to re-enter the market), and Trent Grisham’s career year with the Yankees makes him a likely QO candidate.
It’s still so difficult to wrap my wee noggin around the “likely QO candidate status” of Señor Grisham…
He pulled the fork out and decided he wasn’t done yet.
Yeah, me too. Dude had a 3 year run pre 2025 where he put up a 84 OPS+ (.191/.298/.353).
Are teams really going to look past that and offer him a nice multi year deal? Seems like the exact kind of player to take the QO if offered.
There are examples of mediocre players who have a career year, then get valued in the market closer to their career year rather than what one could reasonably expect. Huge risk in giving Grisham a high value multi-year deal. Less risk for Yankees giving him a QO–the worst that happens is a one year serious overpay–but I agree with you. I think he’ll be signed by someone who thinks his glove will snap back, he can play a needed position. As a Yankee fan I’m unenthused…especially because after CBT he’s a ton of money that might better be spent elsewhere
I remember this one guy named Profar…
Candelario
@mike156 Spot on.
@padrepapi
If Grish can come close to replicating the season he just had, he’ll be line to receive an even greater contract at 29. Sign a four-year, low AAV deal with an opt-out after two or take the Q.O. to bet on himself.
I always appreciate players who bet on themselves.
@Gywnning I offered you Grish many times last offseason as armchair Cashman. I even shaved my head.
And I still say no but scratch my head even more…
🍻🤙🏽
I hope this stupid comp system dies with the next CBA.
As flawed as the currant system is i hope there is some sort of compensation for lower payroll teams.
I could see that happening as a partial tradeoff for a salary cap. The odds of it are probably 1%.
Salary cap will require a salary floor high enough that the overall average amount paid rises. I don’t think anything short gets it done.
I wish they’d just tax consistent losing. If they make it more expensive to lose than to try, guys like Nutting either sell or start trying.
I like the idea of a loser tax. It would help those teams in the middle who are legitimately trying to field a strong team.
High speed are already paying into revenue sharing to help those teams. It would force them to spend on their teams instead of pocketing the money.
How about changing revenue sharing so teams have to spend it on payroll?
But the loser teams still get revenue sharing. And since they value profit over winning, losing draft picks doesn’t impact them immediately.
Losing increasing portions of their revenue sharing cut would be a better incentive. You could do picks as additional punishment, but I think a direct impact on their finances would be the quickest way.
Look at the As sudden willingness to sign a big contract to get over a threshold last off-season. Impact their money and they move.
That already exists. 2 years of draft lottery knocks you out of the top 10. I believe stl, was and colorado are all getting punished next draft.
For a big change with both a ceiling and floor, MLB will have to truly open their books to the MLBPA like other sports and they’ve historically refused to do that.
They’ll never open their books. The actual profits from an MLB are much more than they show.
@DarkSide830
Owners love it because it keeps AAVs in check under the guise of competitive balance.
Why is it stupid? We need ways to help the small-market teams compete against the big-market teams.
Astro have their own category how special
They definitely march to the beat of their own trash cans
Right?
Look at all the AL and NL central teams all on welfare that’s messed up
I agree. But they all know they can just rake in that sweet welfare money without spending, so they have no reason to spend.
What if they took away QOs from teams on welfare? The players would be for that.
And there is no reason that NYC and LA couldn’t split their market with another expansion team or be required to pay salaries now instead of defer for 30 years.
Dodgers split the market with the Angels who are 30 miles away.
If they don’t QO Grisham I would hope it means the chances of Belli coming back are good. Aside from that it’s a 50/50 case. Is Trent going to get 3 year offers?
He’s in steep decline as a CFer… and I dont think he will make a grand corner grass guy, in my humble opinion. I could see “my team” offering a 1yr gig, but as a fan that’s the most I’d wanna see anyway.
I can see 2/30 for Trent. 20-25 hrs and 100+ ops+ is still a better option for most teams. From the Yanks perspective, 1/22 still gives them good roster flexibility, particularly if Belli doesn’t return.
I think Yankee Stadium fit Grisham.His power won’t play in a lot of stadiums.
Keep Grish launch Cody the stoner
I’m more than happy to eat value on the back half of a Belli contract to have him the next 3 years. He won’t be able to play 150 games in CF but 80-100 would be incredibly beneficial.
It’s ridiculous the Rockies get a revenue share. They Rockies are always towards the top in attendance even with a crap team. Being the only team in the Rocky Mountain region and time zone, they draw a lot of fans…what they lack is a competent owner …
I’d replace complacent for incompetent.
Ballpark attendance is only a small portion of a team’s overall revenue. TV deals are more important, and the Rockies are subpar there.
I think teams over the tax shouldn’t get to harvest or tag a player with QO frankly it’s crap and suppresses the market value of the leaving player they can’t afford.
Who says they can’t afford the player they they give a QO?
Sometimes paying QO money for one year is better for the team than sitting then for multiple years.
Sometimes they have a better fit waiting and know the player will get more than the QO money. Why not get compensation for that player leaving?
It’s great to be an Angels fan since nobody to be a f/a played well enough to get a q/o. And there is hardly a chance to sign a f/a with q/o.
Face palm!
Hey, look at the bright side…
uh, you get good weather?
Same with Nats.
But the Padres have been contenders, lots of fans of other teams wish we could say the same.
Yanks need to have at least 1 more CF other than Dominguez, if you think he might be able to play that position. Spencer Jones might turn out to be the real deal but Is rather he be a pretender to compete with Dominguezz but ultimately start the year in AAA. Offer a 1 year QO to Grishy. Be aggressive on bringing back Beli but also try and get an idea of what the ask is for Tucker. If he’s asking for anything ridiculous like 10/$400 then focus on Beli. If Beli wants anything more than 3/$25-$4/$120 then maybe move Caballero to LF,Dominguez to CF and go after Bergman at 3b and use Cabrera or PErazza at SS until Volpe is back.
I don’t if he can’t even handle leftfield well. But he’s only 22. Hopefully, he learns a few things playing winter ball this year. Belli is without doubt going to cost more than 4/$120. Peraza was traded to the Angels and played terribly for them.
The Yankees have yet to put Spencer Jones on the 40-man roster for good reason. He is a Three True Outcomes ballplayer who strikes out too often.
And the Yankees don’t need Bregman cos they have Ryan McMahon, who’s controllable for 2 more seasons.
They shouldn’t have ever got McMahon but I agree that his presence and salary is going to deter them going after Bregman
Yanks said recently they are keeping JD in left. Belli going to get 6 yrs and the Yanks are as probable to give it to him as anyone else.
In a way, the QO’s structure rewards fiscal engineering more than actual player development.
Craig Breslow is so smart. His genius, the biggest in the room, had the Red Sox over the tax by like $100,000. Great guy. Very intelligent.