As one of the busiest days of the offseason gets underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents List:
With the 2025-26 class of free agents on the verge of being mostly set in stone this afternoon, we here at MLBTR are excited to unveil our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list later today. Some outlets have already published theirs, but we like to wait until Qualifying Offer decisions have been revealed because they can have such a significant impact on a free agent’s market. This makes us a little bit late to the party, but allows us to provide a bit more analysis and (hopefully) more accuracy. It’s our biggest post of the year and you should keep an eye out for it later today! Shortly after that comes out, we will also launch our annual prediction contest, where you can do your best to try and predict the events of an unpredictable offseason.
2. Option, QO Decisions Come Due:
We’re now five days out from the end of the World Series. That means that, later today, free agents will be free to negotiate with all other teams and that any outstanding option decisions will need to be made today. Some of those option decisions could be a catalyst for talks about a larger deal, as was the case for the Colin Rea extension reported by MLBTR’s Steve Adams earlier today.
Also due today are each clubs’ decisions on whether or not to give their outgoing free agents a Qualifying Offer. For those unfamiliar, the QO is a one-year, $22.025MM contract that a club can offer to outgoing free agents who began the year with the team and haven’t previously received one. If that offer is declined, the free agent will enter the market tied to draft pick compensation. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco previewed the upcoming QO decisions for both pitchers and position players last month.
3. 40-man Roster Housekeeping:
As the offseason gets fully underway today, MLB’s 30 teams are faced with a handful of other, smaller moves that need to be made independent of free agency. The 60-day injured list goes away during the offseason, so teams must activate all players currently on the 60-day IL and get their 40-man rosters down to 40 players or less today. That likely means that a number of players will be exposed to waivers today, though it’s also possible teams with excess 40-man roster space could look to work out small trades with teams that need to clear space. The Rays have already participated in two such trades this winter as they landed outfielder Ryan Vilade from the Reds and shipped right-hander Joey Gerber to the Mets.
I wonder what impact, if any, the potential for a 2027 lock out might play in some decisions
Poverty franchises are using it as an excuse to avoid spending
Rich teams drive cost up to compete .
Which Free Agent signing will be the free square? Should I assume all the Japanese players will be signing with the Dodgers? Help me score at least 1 correct answer!
I feel like the free square is usually someone returning to a team. Realmuto returning to the Phillies maybe?
Qualifying offers should die.
Why?
agree with this–they are an unnecessary distortion in the market. If you feel you have to compensate the former team, then make it a 3rd or 4th round pick without the penalties, the calculations on what circumstances a particular team gives up what, etc. For those who think it’s a giveaway to wealthy teams–you also have to take into account they can afford a QO to a player who maybe is worth, say, $15M on the field, but the small market team can’t take that risk. The system gets too much attention.
A 3rd or 4th round pick isn’t that valuable to lose a superstar to the overspending/deferral teams. Should be their 1st pick unless they didn’t make playoffs
Every team makes a calculated risk (based on their own unique situation) when they decide to extend a Qualifying Offer,
AND
Every team makes a calculated risk when they choose to sign a free agent who has a qualifying offer attached.
Every player must decide whether to accept or reject a qualifying offer if they are extended one.
To me it has benefits and repercussions, but the risks are fairly equally balanced upon the players and the teams to make the right decision for them.
Teams, including small market teams, have to manage that based on their own situation and sometimes the best option is to skip the process entirely and make a deal before a player gets to that point. I haven’t checked the history of it, but I would imagine that Tampa has had far less pending qualifying offer decisions than most other teams.
I just don’t see it as something that has to be eliminated, but rather something that must be carefully planned around.
Players have the opportunity to get rid of QOs in the next CBA, but what will they give up in exchange? A few years ago, the owners offered to eliminate them in exchange for an international amateur draft, and the union said No.
Great point Highfly. I’m not expecting them to give up anything nor do I anticipate the owners truly making it a partnership by opening their books so there could be a hard floor and ceiling.
The international draft is just a ploy to restrict the earning power of international players. Well, part of a continuing ploy. Luckily the union is smart enough, this time, to realize that it doesn’t benefit players to restrict the number of teams they can negotiate with down from 30 to 1.
Now MLB would sure love to take all options out of those players’ hands so MLB can determine their earning power instead of the free market and this has been happening over the last several CBAs. Anyone blaming the Dodgers for signing IFAs without competition should look in this direction. It’s all been planned. The bitter taste of Rusney Castillo can’t leave the owners’ mouths.
The qualifying offer negatively affects a few players every year who will be very wealthy regardless. An international draft would negatively affect a lot more; many whose signing bonus is their only big payday. The union was right to not make that bad trade.
The fact that you guys are more concerned with accuracy and quality over being first is a huge reason why I subscribe here. Please never lose that.
Moves
Tucker let’s stop playing games and announce your intention to sign with dodgers. So cubs can get on with their offseason bottom of the barrel planning.
LAD seem too smart to outbid everyone for Tucker. They sign HOF destined winners like Freeman/Betts rather than a guy who consistently rides coattails of teammates in big moments. Looking for walks in key RBI situations and failing when playoff pitchers don’t oblige. Tucker looks way better on a stat sheet hitting HRs in lopsided games or bottom feeding off subpar pitchers. Fools’ gold and not durable to boot when one is talking about guaranteeing a player around 300mil.
Tucker is a good player when he’s healthy, but that isn’t as often as his probable price tag implies. Any team that signs him needs to have DH At Bats to give and unless the Dodgers are going to let Ohtani play the field (they aren’t) its not going to be them
This may sound weird but I’ll ask it anyway. Qualifying offers have to be in before the period of time when the player can negotiate with other teams, correct? There’s not some weird overlap time where a player might be signed by another team right away only for the qualifying offer to come later in the day.
I’m in the minority but I say no cap but a floor. As an owner you belong to an exclusive club and if you’re not willing to pay the dues you will be replaced. Team salary has to be? beginning the season, ? at the all star break and ? at the end of the season. Failure to meet the thresholds means no revenue sharing, loss of draft picks and a search for a new owner.
There is a floor
26 * 750K. Or about $20 million
Maybe you want a higher floor
I don’t think caps and floors are the solution to competitive balance fans want it to be. I’m not even sure competitive balance is a huge issue in MLB.
I’d like to see a system that distributes salaries a little more evenly. Earlier arb? Then maybe FA salaries temper a little and teams are able to retain their own stars. I don’t know how to get there, but more JRam staying in Cleveland type outcomes feels right for the game as a whole. Some form of restricted free agency?
Much of the MLB fan base, and seemingly Manfred, want the next CBA to have a salary cap and floor. And judging by Bryce Harper’s treatment of Manfred when he came to visit Phillies this summer, there’s basically no chance MLBPA will agree to it because they (rightfully?) believe it will hold down spending by the richest teams.
I have a compromise solution that makes sense in my head. Here’s how it works:
1. Leave the Luxury Tax system in place. Dodgers, Mets, and the rest of the big spenders can continue to spend as they currently do.
2. Teams who receive the Luxury tax, the lowest revenue teams, will receive a higher percentage of the Luxury Tax when they spend more on payroll.
The system was designed to allow low revenue teams to spend more on payroll above, but as we all know, most of these teams have chosen not to reinvest all of these funds back into payroll. The system I propose will reward the small market teams like Brewers, Royals, etc. who choose to compete with higher revenue teams in FA market, while punishing the cheapskate owners like Pirates, A’s, etc. who refuse to reinvest the Luxury Tax back into the team’s payroll.
Love to hear your thoughts.