Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey recently shared some positive health updates for right-handers Pablo Lopez and David Festa. Falvey told Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic that Lopez is fully healthy and is expected to have a normal offseason. He added that Festa should start throwing soon and is expected to be good to go by spring training.
Lopez hit the 15-day injured list in late September with a right forearm strain. Even at the time, the injury was believed to be mild enough that Lopez could’ve avoided the IL if Minnesota were still in the mix for a playoff spot. Falvey’s statement further supports that notion. It seems the issue will have minimal impact on Lopez going forward, though it was only one of several injuries Lopez dealt with this past season.
The right-hander first hit the IL just three starts into the season with a hamstring strain. He came back near the end of April, only to go down again in early June with a shoulder strain. The shoulder injury resulted in a trip to the 60-day IL and cost Lopez all of July and August. The various maladies capped Lopez at 14 starts, his fewest in a 162-game season since his rookie year back in 2018.
Lopez pitched well when available with a 2.74 ERA across 75 2/3 innings. Lopez allowed two earned runs or fewer in a dozen of his outings. The underlying metrics on his arsenal declined, however, potentially as a result of the start-and-stop nature of his season. Lopez recorded a 23.4% strikeout rate, his worst mark since 2019. He finished with a career-low 93 Stuff+. The Twins are surely hoping that a full offseason to regain his form will help him bounce back in the strikeout department next season.
At the very least, that’s what they’ll be pitching to potential trade partners this winter. Lopez’s clean bill of health figures to make him a more viable trade candidate this offseason than he was during Minnesota’s fire sale at the Trade Deadline. He’s entering the third year of the four-year, $73.5MM extension he signed with Minnesota in 2024. The two years and $43MM left on that deal would be a bargain if Lopez can maintain his status as a #2 starter, and that should make him very attractive to any team who thinks his injuries (and a somewhat middling 2024 campaign) are behind him.
As for Festa, the right-hander is entering his age-26 season next year. He’s pitched to a 5.12 ERA with a 4.27 FIP to this point in his career at the big league level, though that comes in a sample size of just 117 2/3 innings across the 2024 and ’25 seasons. With the Twins having kicked off what looks to be a near complete rebuild over the summer, Festa figures to enter Spring Training with the opportunity to compete for a spot in the starting rotation alongside other young arms like Zebby Matthews, Taj Bradley, and Mick Abel. How many spots will be available to those young arms depends on how aggressive the Twins are in marketing some of their more veteran starters, like Lopez and fellow righty Joe Ryan, throughout the coming winter.
Where there’s smoke, There’s fire. I hope Hoyer finds somebody else to target for a trade. 2 arm injuries in the same year sounds like trouble to me.
For what it’s worth, López’s forearm injury didn’t come from pitching, it came from landing on it while trying to make a defensive play. You never know, of course, but I can’t imagine it’s too big of a concern.
Falvey sure has some nerve providing an optimistic health update on Lopez when he’s most likely just going to trade him this offseason to unload salary even further.
This almost sounds like a salesman pitch if I’m being honest. Like he’s basically telling teams that he’s open for business.
Festa will be in camp with the Twins but odds are better than not Lopez won’t be