The Red Sox began the offseason looking to add to the rotation. They’ve added a couple of arms and might now have enough rotation depth to trade some away. “We’ve got pitching depth, based on some of the inbound calls that we’ve received over the last couple of weeks,” chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said this week, per Sean McAdam of MassLive. “I think teams have recognized there’s appeal to controllable starting pitching. If there are opportunities to use some of that depth in order to address other areas of the roster, we’d be willing to do it.”
The Sox have already made a couple of notable trades to bolster the rotation. They acquired Sonny Gray from the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo from the Pirates. Those two now slot into the rotation with Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello. That only leaves one spot for a group that includes Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Hunter Dobbins, Patrick Sandoval, Kutter Crawford, Kyle Harrison and others.
No team gets through a full season using just five pitchers these days, so the Sox should want to hold onto some depth. But it’s possible the right trade emerges where the Sox feel they can move someone out of this group in order to upgrade another part of the roster while leaving the rotation picture still in decent shape.
It’s been reported that the Astros have interest in Early and Tolle. McAdams notes that the Sox have also fielded some interest in Crawford, Sandoval and Dobbins, though he doesn’t specify which teams made those calls. Crawford and Sandoval are in somewhat analogous situations, as both missed the 2025 season due to injuries. Though both pitchers have some major league success, it’s possible the Sox didn’t want to rely on them in 2026. Now that they have each been bumped down the depth chart in Boston, they could make more sense on another roster.
Crawford has thrown 392 1/3 innings for the Sox, allowing 4.57 earned runs per nine. His 23.8% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate are both a bit better than league average. He began 2025 on the injured list due to patellar tendinopathy in his right knee. Then right wrist pain led to surgery in June.
Missing the entire season obviously tamps down his trade value but his cost and control should help. He qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player and made $2.75MM in 2025. Arb-eligible players who miss an entire season often make the same salary the following year, so that could happen with Crawford in 2026. He could then be retained via arbitration through 2028.
Sandoval isn’t as cheap or controllable but his major league track record is longer. He required UCL surgery while with the Angels in 2024. He was non-tendered and then signed a two-year, $18.25MM deal with the Red Sox. He tried to get back on a big league mound late in 2025 but wasn’t able to do so. His deal was backloaded, so he is owed $12.75MM in 2026 and will be a free agent after that.
That’s a less appealing contractual situation than Crawford but Sandoval’s pre-injury track record is strong. He gave the Angels 536 innings with a 4.01 ERA. His 22.7% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate are a bit worse than Crawford’s but Sandoval also got ground balls at a strong 47.9% clip.
Dobbins is a different situation, as he has a much smaller track record but is therefore cheaper and more controllable. He has just 61 big league innings under his belt, with a 4.13 ERA. His 2025 season was ended by an ACL tear in July. He has less than a year of service time, meaning he’s still years away from even qualifying for arbitration and even farther from free agency. He also has options and can be kept in the minors as depth.
Given his limited big league action, an interested club would have to bet on his minor league track record. Across 2023 and 2024, he tossed 238 1/3 innings on the farm with a 3.36 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate.
Given the chatter around Crawford, Sandoval, Dobbins, Tolle and Early, there are many ways the Red Sox could go. Many expect the Sox to also trade one of Jarren Duran , Wilyer Abreu or Masataka Yoshida. They could also trade Triston Casas if they add a first baseman. Their outfield seems set but they have lots of ways they could upgrade the infield, with shortstop the only spot that seems locked down right now. Given all the possible permutations, there are infinite paths ahead.
One possibility that keeps coming up is Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks. He has already been in plenty of rumors, including a connection to the Sox. McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive write that the two clubs have had some talks about Marte, with the Snakes focused on controllable starting pitching as the return.
It’s a sensible enough framework. Arizona traded Merrill Kelly at last year’s deadline and lost Zac Gallen to free agency. They recently signed Michael Soroka but that’s not enough to satisfy their needs. John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix reported after the Soroka deal that the Diamondbacks are still looking for more arms. Owner Ken Kendrick has suggested the payroll should be dropping a bit relative to 2025, so turning to the trade market is logical.
That doesn’t mean a Marte-for-pitching deal is likely. Arizona’s general manager Mike Hazen has repeatedly tried to downplay the Marte rumors and did so again this week on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM. He said that the Diamondbacks have been receiving trade interest in Marte annually for years. He attributed the interest and rumors to Marte’s superstar abilities and relatively team-friendly contract.
Over the past three years, Marte has slashed .283/.368/.519 for a 140 wRC+. His 11.2% walk rate an 16.7% strikeout rate are both strong figures. His glovework at second base is generally considered solid. FanGraphs credited him with 15.3 wins above replacement over that three-year span, making him one of the top 15 position players in the league.
Relative to other superstars, he is underpaid. He is guaranteed $102.5MM over the next six years, an average annual value of just over $17MM, in an age where most star players are earning more than double that on an annual basis. There are also notable deferrals in Marte’s deal, making it even more attractive.
Time will tell if anyone blows away the Snakes with a strong enough offer to pluck Marte away. The Sox are a possibility, given the arms they have on hand, though Marte has also been connected to the Mariners, Pirates, Rays, Tigers, Phillies and Blue Jays. If Boston can’t land Marte, they should have plenty of other options since starting pitching is in high demand around the league. McAdam reports that the Sox have had talks with at least three teams aside from the Diamondbacks.
Photo courtesy of Dale Zanine, Imagn Images
Red Sox just yapping atp
two – You are 100% correct! Constant BS coming from that front office.
Just a few months ago Breslow said he didn’t make any meaningful trades at the deadline because other teams didn’t like his players …. which of course was total BS.
Sure Early boosted his value with his post-deadline performance, but not guys like Tolle who absolutely sucked with the Sox. Not Harrison. Not Hicks.
Just more double-talkin’ jive from the Red Sox front office.
Steve – How many accounts of yours does this make now?
Steve – Keep creating accounts just to attack me, your therapist needs a new Maserati.
Goodbye until the next account ;O)
Tolle doesn’t suck, he could be a really good pitcher with more seasoning as he was in the majors in year one. I would love to see the Sox get rid of Hicks and Yoshida at half price if there’s a sucker out there
Tolle pitched 16.1 innings in the majors. Let’s give it some time before we say he’s the best or he sucks could go either way
Astros might take Hicks for 1/4 price
Mega – thanks for being a reasonable voice. I agree.
Maybe Tolle becomes a mlb starter, maybe he doesnt. I do think the fastball plays, and he may be a high leverage bullpen guy or maybe even a closer someday.
We need to play it out with Tolle, because he’s definitely got a plus, plus arm
Quality third pitch and a sprinkle of brains over brawn and Tolle can be something really nice. Right now he is a thrower.
Fever was just talking about how he did when he was called up to the majors. Tolle struggled, but that doesn’t mean he is not going to be a great pitcher it just means his trade value dropped a bit.
Theme of the Meetings so far: Lots of willingness to do deals, no hutzpah to actually pull those triggers.
That said, this report does lineup with others where the Sox and insert player here is involved like Paredes earlier.
Salzilla – i think you’re right, ive been saying that too. Not just Breslow, but most of these guys would rather play around the edges instead of swinging big and missing
I think as signings begin to take shape as they have since I wrote that, you’ll start to see some trade action as well.
I would prioritize keeping Early. I really like his poise and repertioire. The rest, while all promising arms, have some redundancy.
Pretty exciting stuff. This could go any number of directions.
swan – I totally agree, Early impressed me especially his mental makeup which I tend to value more than most people here.
Swan, agreed. From the very limited sample sizes, Early seems to be the keeper. That said, there are no guarantees on any of them and if other teams value each similarly, Early should fetch the best return.
Some teams talk a lot.
Lord – It’s like the old saying, those who talk the most have the least to say.
Sox front office is busy providing public statements and leaks because of their ulterior motives. What actually happens is usually kept quiet until it happens.
As always, actions speak louder than words.
How about McNeil for Kyle Harrison ?
Ridiculous
Boston is not looking for a lefty bat.
How about Hicks instead? Lol
“Starting pitching in high demand across the league” this is fact however the well is near dry so it’s a tough job for a GM to make moves when (imo) they have limited viable options. Most likely being part of a very lopsided trade or overpriced 4 or 5 starter. I certainly don’t envy them.
They’re gonna move Harrison. I don’t think he profiles well at Fenway
Ketel Marte for Jarren duran Kristian Campbell Tristan Casas and Connelly Early.
Pass
Besides Devers, The Sox haven’t paid or bought a multi-year contract that would take a position player past the age of 34 since 2018 and Devers was homegrown. This is a team core philosophy. They’re not going to stray from it by paying Ketel Marte $100m+ and then also have to trade Major league players and prospects for Marte through age 37. Breslow may be PBO but he is only one voice that sits at the decision making round table headed by ownership that deals with decisions like “core philosophy” and this has been in place for almost the last decade.
No way…the Sox get ripped on that one.
More like Duran, Casas, Sandoval, and Yoshida +12m, then a lower prospect in the boston 15-25 range, for Marte plus a lottery ticket and prospect that can be a potential LHP for the pen.
That’s a massive overpay for Marte. He’s a very good player but not 4 young controllable major league players good.
Which controllable pitcher does Boston have that any team would actually want? Outside of Crochet, most of those guys are subpar.
If by subpar, you mean having limited ML innings… I’d concur.
If by subpar, you mean none of them have great “stuff” and high potential, I’d disagree. LH velocity at 98-99 is highly regarded (Tolle, Harrison).
When Tolle figures out his change up, he’s going to be lights out.
York – outside of Early and Tolle, who appear to have higher ceilings, i agree. Harrison, Sandoval, Dobbin seem like they have limited upside to me.
Which makes me wonder what the trade for Oviedo was about. Perhaps its a look forward to the summer trade deadline and unloading a guy who could bring something back?
As of today, the picture is muddled (again)
Sad – the day after oviedo happened, I came around to the idea that it was about changing out the trade chips to build more rounded packages.
This report seems to reinforce that. You weren’t going to package multiple starting outfielders to the same team for top value… But an outfielder plus an arm or two, now you’ve got a viable bundle.
I suspect the feedback Breslow was getting wanted a young outfielder plus arms, and, the team didn’t want to decimate the depth and pipeline. So, they switched the OF surplus into a SP surplus, to where they can deal from those arms without thinning out too much
GASoxFan – agreed, that was my thinking when they cleared out Password. So, could be something on the horizon…….
Sad – if you read the tea leaves of all the recent red sox chatter I’d agree with you.
Casting the wide net meeting with all the guys or having zoom sessions, to me, it reads that breslow has a handful of trade frameworks that aren’t at the finish line, but, could get there without a ton of work. Except theres overlap in the pieces involved.
So, theyre trying to get a read on what it’d cost to buy one piece in a variety of positions, and see which other need they want to go after via trade out of the pile of frameworks, possibly using the FA signing to free up an extra trade chip.
GASox – interestingly enough, the signs would point to the trade for Marte rather than the signing of either Bichette or Alonso.
This is a complete surprise to me. I appreciate what Marte does on the field, but the contract length and his age made me previously feel like the trade was the least likely of those three things to happen.
THIS!
@Sad.Sox 3
Harrison was a top-25 prospect two years ago and features one of the best fastballs in baseball while having shown the ability to sustain a starter’s workload.
He still needs to improve his control/command along with finding a secondary pitch to rely on, but the upside is very high. (I’d place him barely behind Tolle in terms of ‘upside’)
WCSox – when Harrison flashed with the Giants in 2024 I was impressed.
His start to 2025 got him demoted, and then traded.
I wondered if Bailey had an idea on getting him right, but his Worcester stats were lackluster as well.
I’d like to ride with him and see if he straightens it out, but also willing to allow another team to try if that means we get to keep Early, Tolle and Witherspoon
Harrison was working on new pitches during AAA games last season. Stats may suffer when players work on new things such as pitches or batting stances.
Suit – agreed. like i said i’d like to ride it out,
But, Harrison isnt the guy that i’m holding on to, if he;s in a package where I am getting a big return.
Fun fact about Kyle Harrison:
He’s only 14 months older than Tolle, 7 months older than Early and two years younger than Dobbins.
True. It was smart on his part to use the minors to get started reinventing his repertoire rather than wait for the off season. I think he understands he has a great arm but is hitting a wall unless he adds to his pitches and adds to his control with them.
Dobbins is a stud
Tardaddy – stud? That’s high praise. My adjective would be serviceable.
11 mlb starts – 4.13 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 1.279 WHIP. With similar type numbers in his minor league history.
The game against the Yankees in July was studly, but, imho, he has a lot more to prove in the pros.
Sad – I also wouldnt call him a stud, but, id say he’s a high value asset.
Compare him to Gray – better numbers, more control, much much cheaper, and youth with a higher ceiling and equal floor.
GASox – with one caveat. Gray is a guy who I would completely trust starting Game 2 of a playoff series this year. Not something I would say about Early, Tolle, Harrison or Dobbins
@GASoxFan
I like Dobbins, but higher ceiling than Gray? Gray was a former top prospect who finished 2nd in Cy Young voting just three years ago.
In terms of the numbers:
2025 Dobbins:
17.6% K%
6.6% BB%
41.7% HardHit%
2025 Gray:
26.7% K%
5% BB%
40.5% HardHit%
I don’t like arguing against Dobbins, but it’s not a close comparison as Gray clearly has the higher ceiling, higher floor, better control and better numbers (and we have to account for batters possibly adjusting to Dobbins going forward).
WC – theres a problem in your thinking pointing to what Gray did as a 33 year old, vs what you think he’s going to magically turn back the clock and accomplish as a 36/37 year old.
Gray isnt likely to improve or grow. What he is lately is likely his ceiling, and, its going to trend downwards. Time stops for no man.
Dobbins is only 26, he hasn’t yet hit his prime. His ceiling is higher than what you’ve seen so far and has room to grow and develop further. Despite 11 starts, and inconsistent offense with a generally poor defense he only took 1 loss. I like his potential for growth
@GASoxFan
No need to turn back time, Gray was actually better in 2025 by most metrics (including K% and BB%) than he was in 2023 when he finished 2nd for the Cy Young. He may trend downwards, but he’s in a 1 year deal, so the long term future isn’t at play here.
I would urge you against evaluating young pitchers based on wins, losses or grit.
If Dobbins becomes half as good as Gray is right now, I would be ecstatic. I’m hopeful this occurs but I’m not optimistic that it will be with the Red Sox. As of now he’s likely 9th on the depth chart. (SoxProspects also has him at 9 right now)
This also ignores the ACL injury, which is serious and given that it’s the 2nd ACL injury to the same knee, it will likely be flagged by many teams as an issue going forward.
WC let’s open the hood on those other numbers and stats for Sonny in 2023 vs 2025 then:
2023: ERA 2.79; ERA+ 157; FIP 2.83; WHIP 1.147; H/9 7.6; HR/9 0.4
2025: ERA 4.28; ERA+ 96; FIP 3.39; WHIP 1.234; H/9 9.2; HR/9 1.2
The guy in 2025 was not the level of dominance from 2023. He did well with strikeouts in a league thats strikeout happy, but saw a marked increase in hits and home runs.
To me, as a trade piece, I value Dobbins compared to what Gray, and now Oviedo cost. And thats higher than Gray when you look at the youth, control, and upside.
You also say Dobbins had similar numbers to 4.13 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 1.279 WHIP through the minors…
2023 saw a 3.67 ERA and 1.189 WHIP on the year, coming through 2 new levels he hadn’t been in before.
2024 saw a 3.08 ERA and 1.257 WHIP with his first taste of AAA following opening the year in AA.
Then we got his first taste of the majors in 2025, with everything we saw coming along with it. Crochet was low on the white sox depth chart too. Now im not saying dobbins is a crochet level talent, thatd be silly. But where a young kid who is making the jump and learning slots in on a team with expensive veterans isnt a good indication of value either.
@GASoxFan
You said ‘open the hood’ and then listed a bunch of surface stats which are subject to excessive randomness, heavily overlap each other and don’t indicate future success. You are not doing what you think you are doing. Gray was very lucky with home runs in 2023 despite a nearly identical (39.2% vs 40.5%) HardHit%. The same is true of his BABIP and his LOB numbers – it was good luck vs bad luck. The only cases I can see for Gray regressing are his FB velocity and the ground ball rate. The GB% isn’t down much, but would lead to a slight uptick in home runs and hits generally – but not nearly what we have seen and not enough to offset the improved BB and K numbers.
You’re on your own with valuing Dobbins that highly. He was probably one spot ahead of Fitts on the depth chart, but the difference was nowhere close to Brandon Clarke.
Crochet was a 1st rd pick who made the majors the same year he was drafted – a very rare feat. He then suffered through injuries (also an issue for him in college) so the White Sox kept him in the bullpen when he was able to pitch. But in 2024, despite missing almost all of the previous season and never having started a professional game, he was the White Sox opening day starter against Skubal. On his worst day Crochet was a better prospect than Dobbins has ever been – not even close.
Joe Ryan’s 26.2 innings in 2021:
K% 30%
BB% 5%
Hardhit% 30.8%
I’ve already shown you Dobbins’ numbers for comparison. Ryan was better by a huge margin. Hopefully Dobbins continues to improve, but even setting a ceiling of Gray or Ryan would be unrealistically optimistic at this point.
I’m starting to think you’re just messing with me.
WC certainly not messing with you. Maybe seeing things via a heavily distorted lens via medication fog, but not messing around. I don’t think its a bad day in that regard, but, usually I need other people to point it out to me as I dont realize the somewhat good from the somewhat bad on my own – only the extremes.
I dont elevate K-rate and Bb-rate to a pedestal though because of whats going on throughout the game with hitting approaches and selling out for power – artificially inflating k rates and depressing walk rates across the league. Its not like 10 years ago when it meant a lot more in a meaningful sense about a guy’s control and pitch selection abilities.
You posts seem to rely very very heavily on those two numbers, to the exclusion of the others. Attributing 2023 for gray to ‘good luck’ and 2025 to ‘bad luck’ does disservice to everyone IMO…. everyone has their preferred stats they point to.
But hoping for luck to give you a 2023 gray vs a 2025 gray, I dont like that approach myself. I tend to think theres more than just great luck or bad luck separating the two, but, even it was the case, in a neutral luck situation you’d see significant regression from 2023 without the benefit of that luck, while you’d see a small bump off 2025 with the same benefit of an improvement in luck.
@GASoxFan
Sorry to hear about the medication fog, that’s never fun to deal with. Hope you get through whatever is requiring them. I only mentioned that because after your post I expected Ryan to have much worse numbers than he had and was surprised to see that he blew Dobbins (and most pitchers) out of the water right off the bat.
In terms of statistics, there shouldn’t be a ‘mine or yours’. Most of my career has been based around statistics and creating/improving forecasting systems, so I look at them a bit differently than many fans. I look at K% and BB% closely because the pitcher is fully responsible for those outcomes. Additionally I look closely at Hardhit% as it’s both fully reliant on the pitcher’s skill and is less erratic than similar/overlapping EV/Max-EV/Barrel%. GB% vs FB% is also quite valuable, but their effectiveness in preventing base runners/runs can be very pitcher specific (a ground ball pitcher getting more ground balls is a good thing, but not necessarily a good thing for a fly ball pitcher). Then I look at contact and zone/chase swing rates – but those overlap a fair bit with Ks & BBs.
I’m not saying that some of the statistics you used aren’t useful, but they’re only really useful when identifying when a pitcher is consistently over/underperforming their peripherals and even then the difference should typically be regressed heavily. In the short run, most of those numbers you are using aren’t helpful in telling us what will happen in the future – it’s fine to be an optimist and think that Dobbins will repeat his strong surface stats, but the underlying stats didn’t reflect that he will and the underlying stats are almost always right in the aggregate.
In terms of Gray, I think you nailed it. He was never as good as his 2.79 ERA in 2023 and was certainly better than his 4.28 ERA in 2025. I would expect an ERA between 3.3 and 3.8 next year, but we never know for sure. That may not seem amazing, but he’s was my #2 pitching target for the Red Sox (behind woodruff) so I’m pleased with it.
Side note: I’m fully talking in relation to ‘predictive’ statistics rather than ‘reflective’ as we’re discussing the 2026 team. Dobbins may have been lucky due to strong defense, lucky bounces, weak opponents or relief pitchers who bailed him out; but regardless he was 4-1 with a 4.13 ERA and that will never change.
WC – thanks for the wishes. Leukemia, multiple mutations. These days, its drug of last resort on salvage therapy (guardrails re: treatment/dosages are removed.) Could have 20 years, could have 20 weeks. I just make the most of each day – part of that is the decision to cling to trying to engage and have fun interactions with others here on the board.
Hopefully catch some fenway games this season too, maybe even with fellow members.
So, I appreciate the various leeway guys here give when either i have a bad day and things are waaaay off the wall, or, theres so many typos its a challenging read…. lol
@GASoxFan Sorry to hear that man. Hopefully it’s the 20 years and 20 more Red Sox championship celebrations.
Red Sox would pass on trading for or signing any player pass the age of 34 because besides Devers, the Red Sox haven’t paid or bought a multi-year contract that would take a position player past the age of 34 since 2018 and Devers was homegrown. It’s a core team philosophy. Breslow may be PBO but he is only one voice that sits at the decision making round table headed by ownership that deals with decisions like core philosophy and this has been in place for almost the last decade.
Sounds like they’re in talks with Bichette, which I love over Bregman, just for the age. And then trade some starting pitching and an OF for Greene or any other ace and i’m happy.
All signs point to a Murakami signing. Let me explain. In the last 24hrs+ the Red Sox have; cried poverty, been linked to acquiring an aging 2B with a $100m+ contract that would require sending major league players and/or propects, had a zoom meeting with Bichette, will be having an in-person sit-down with Alonso, and Breslow stating he wants a home run hitter for the middle of the order. But let’s keep in mind that besides Devers, The Sox haven’t paid or bought a multi-year contract that would take a position player past the age of 34 since 2018.. So that leaves the 25yr Murakami left as the only real fit.. Maybe Bichette but not if he wants more then 6yrs, maybe Alonso but not if he wants more then 3yrs (but I’d give him the 4th). So Murakami for 8yrs, Alonso for 3yrs and Bichette for 6yrs – be a nice off season for the front office and the fans.
Bregman is a better defender, probably less years, and had really good clubhouse and development impact with the kids.
Bichette might, or might not, bring those off the field benefits, you wouldnt know until it was too late what youre getting there.
Why would the Reds trade Hunter Greene? He’s a stud who would be incredibly hard to replace
They’re not
There is nearly no reason for the Reds to trade Greene unless you blow the doors off with the return for him. He is cheap on a team that can’t afford to spend, is cheap for years while they think they have a chance to compete, and is their ace. If I’m the Reds dealing with the Red Sox the starting point for negotiations begins with most Red Sox fans in despair over what it would take. Short of that, they don’t move him.
It’s too Early to know the Tolle this will take…
Don’t trade Early!!
They probably don’t sign big money deals but instead trade for potential improvement. Afterall, one must protect the revenue. winning is so overrated in the entertainment money making industry.
What do you guys think of a Willson Contreras trade? still in his prime. 9th best RH hitter in baseball over last 3 years. Near GG at 1b last year. Cards need young pitching
Contreas was not near a GG 1B nor has he been the 9th beat RH hitter the last 3 seasons.
Keep early, the rest should be available for the right guy
One report has SOX interested in Isaac Paredes for Tolle & Early…NO DEAL. Paredes not worth 2 top prospects.
Sox- get on the horn and sign Dick Mountain.
It looks like both the Red Sox and White Sox got what they wanted in the Garret Crochet deal.
Boston got a dominating pitcher, and the White Sox got 4 prospects, that at some point in 2026, will all be on the White Sox 26 man major League roster. Teel, Meidroth, and Winkleman contributed in 2025. Braden Montgomery will be the starting right fielder in mid to late season
I am glad this trade helped both teams.
Go get Harrison on the sly, Preller!! Turn him into a Giant-killer!
Ha ha. Good luck with that. I think I’d prefer Mackenzie Gore.