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Red Sox Notes: Duran, Casas, Dobbins

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The Padres’ reported interest in Jarren Duran has drawn plenty of attention, but Sean McAdam of MassLive.com downplays the potential fit between the two clubs. McAdam writes that he, too, has heard the Friars have checked in on Duran, but the Sox aren’t shopping the 2024 All-Star. With a crowded outfield mix and uber-prospect Roman Anthony seemingly ready for an MLB look, the Sox aren’t turning interested parties away when they inquire about Duran, but there’s an understandably high asking price.

With regard to the Padres specifically, McAdam touches on some of the difficulties regarding the fit that Darragh McDonald and I discussed on this week’s episode of the MLBTR Podcast. The Red Sox are likely to want immediate MLB help at either the infield corners or in the starting rotation, and San Diego is lacking in those areas. Their top two starters, Dylan Cease and Michael King, are free agents at season’s end. They don’t have any high-end, MLB-ready pitching prospects around which to build a deal, nor do they have the type of controllable corner infield help Boston would covet. The Padres’ infield is composed of expensive veterans, all of whom except Luis Arraez are on long-term deals; Arraez, a free agent at season’s end, isn’t going to get the ball rolling in talks when Duran is controlled through 2028.

The Padres do have two of MLB’s very best prospects in shortstop Leo De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas, but both are teenagers who are years from being ready for the majors. They’re also widely viewed as untouchable in trades, or close to it. As such, even if the Red Sox got to the point where they were serious about shopping Duran around, it seems likely that another outfield-needy team would be able to put together a more compelling package to sway the Sox.

Short-term help at the corner infield wouldn’t be a need at Fenway Park if the Sox had a healthy Triston Casas who was hitting as he did in 2023-24, when he batted a combined .256/.357/.480 (126 wRC+) with 37 homers in 745 plate appearances. Casas struggled for much of this season’s first three weeks, however, and suffered a season-ending knee injury when he’d begun to show signs of breaking out of that slump (.261/.414/.522 in eight games leading up to the injury).

Casas chatted with Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic about the injury, his timeline for a recovery and both the physical and mental difficulties of going through a rehab process that’ll span 10 or more months. An exact timeline hasn’t yet been established, but Casas said no doctors have told him to expect a yearlong absence to this point. He’s working toward a goal of being ready for next year’s spring training. For now, he’s still on crutches for at least two more weeks.

Casas calls the ruptured patellar tendon the biggest physical challenge he’s had to overcome in his career but noted that last year’s rib cage fractures may have been more mentally taxing. With that injury, he felt strong but had to simply wait to allow his ribs to heal before being cleared to swing at full strength, whereas he has more measured checkpoints and benchmarks in his rehab with the current injury. He added that former Red Sox right-hander Garrett Richards, who also suffered a ruptured patellar tendon late in his career, has reached out and been a valuable mentor as he navigates the early stages of his rehab. Sox fans, in particular, will want to check out McCaffrey’s piece for several thoughtful quotes from Casas about the injury, his rehab and his general outlook as he sets off on a long road to recovery.

Turning to the starting pitching group, the Sox optioned Richard Fitts earlier this week. Chris Cotillo of MassLive was among those to relay that Hunter Dobbins will draw into the rotation now. Various pitching injuries have thrust Dobbins to the majors this year and he has managed to perform decently in his first big league action. He has logged 44 1/3 innings this year over seven starts and two relief appearances, having allowed 4.06 earned runs per nine. His 19.6% strikeout rate is a bit low but he has only walked 5.6% of batters faced while getting grounders on 44.3% of balls in play.

Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito have the other four rotation spots for now. Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval and Chris Murphy are all on the injured list and could rejoin the rotation mix at some point. Sandoval, who had UCL surgery last year, tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that he has thrown six bullpens but still isn’t close to facing live hitters. Crawford is on the IL due to knee discomfort but is now also dealing with wrist pain, per Christopher Smith of MassLive. Houck is on the shelf due to a flexor pronator strain and is still at the playing catch stage, per Smith. Murphy had Tommy John surgery in April of last year and his current status is unclear.

Red Sox Select Nick Burdi

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The Red Sox announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Nick Burdi. Fellow righty Cooper Criswell has been optioned as the corresponding active roster move. To open a 40-man spot, righty Kutter Crawford has been transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Burdi, 32, signed a minor league deal with the Sox in the offseason. He has since been putting up some good numbers for Triple-A Worcester. Through 16 2/3 innings, he has only allowed one earned run, leading to a 0.54 ERA. He has struck out 38.5% of opponents while only giving out walks 7.7% of the time.

Throughout his career, the question has been more about health than talent. A former second-round pick of the Twins, he has twice had Tommy John surgery, once in 2017 and the second time in 2020. He also had a thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in between those two, in 2018.

He understandably didn’t pitch much from 2016 to 2022 but has been able to log some innings more recently. In 2023, he only pitched three big league frames but also got to 21 innings on the farm, with a 3.86 ERA and 35% strikeout rate. He also walked 15% of opponents that year, perhaps understandably rusty after so much missed time.

Last year, he pitched 9 2/3 major league innings for the Yankees with a 1.86 ERA as well as 17 Triple-A innings with a 2.65 ERA. At both levels, he had high strikeout totals but also a lot of walks. He missed time with a hip injury and was outrighted off the roster late in the season, which allowed the Red Sox to sign him.

It’s a small sample but Burdi’s start this year still features the same strikeout stuff but seemingly with better control. He’s averaging 96 miles per hour on his fastball while also throwing a slider and changeup. The Sox will add him as a fresh arm, at least for a few days. They only have a four-man rotation right now with Walker Buehler expected to be reinstated from the IL in the coming days, perhaps on Tuesday. Burdi has options, so it’s possible he’ll be sent down when Buehler is ready, depending on how things go between now and then. If he manages to stay healthy and post some big numbers in the majors, he can be retained beyond this season via arbitration if still on the 40-man roster.

As for Crawford, this doesn’t change anything with him. The 60-day count is retroactive to his initial placement on the 15-day IL. He landed there to start the campaign due to right patellar tendinopathy. He will be eligible for reinstatement in late May, but that doesn’t seem likely anyhow. He has been throwing lately but hasn’t yet begun a rehab assignment. Even if cleared to start that assignment soon, he would surely need a few weeks to ramp up as a sort of delayed spring training.

Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images

Latest On Red Sox’ Rotation

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Right-hander Tanner Houck was lit up by the Tigers last night, the latest chapter in a very frustrating season. In the aftermath of the game, manager Álex Cora wouldn’t commit to Houck getting another start. “We’ll talk about it, of course,” Cora said, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. “I’ve got to take a look at the video and we’ve got to see what we’re gonna do. Right now, it’s too fresh. It’s too quick. We have to take a look at it and see if it’s mechanical, usage, or where we’re at.”

Houck only lasted 2 1/3 innings last night, but he allowed 11 earned runs in that time on three walks and nine hits, including two home runs. He did not record a strikeout. Shockingly, that was his second time this year allowing 11 earned runs in a start, the first coming against the Rays on April 14th.

For the whole season, he now has an 8.04 earned run average in 43 2/3 innings. It’s a sea change relative to last season. After years of oscillating between the rotation and the bullpen, he seemingly established himself as a bonafide starter in 2024. He took the ball 30 times for the Sox and logged 178 2/3 innings with a 3.12 ERA. His 20.7% strikeout rate was a tad below average but he had a solid 6.5% walk rate and strong 55.9% ground ball rate.

Everything has gone in the wrong direction so far this year. His walk rate has climbed marginally to 8.4% but his strikeouts are down to a 15.8% clip while he’s only getting grounders 48.3% of the time.

It’s a bit of a mystery as Houck says he can’t find anything physically wrong, which is backed up by the data. His velocity is actually higher than last year. For whatever reason, his splitter is way less effective, which seems to be a big part of the problem. Opponents hit .194 against it last year with a .264 slugging percentage, but those numbers are up to .425 and .475 this year. His sweeper has also declined in impact, though to a lesser degree. That pitch allowed a .230 average and .357 slug last year but .305 and .492 this year.

As Cora laid out, it’s a puzzle they will have to solve, though they may not let Houck work it out in the rotation. Currently, the club is also giving starts to Garrett Crochet, Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello and Hunter Dobbins. Giolito is the only one in that group with an ERA above 2.78, and he’s only made three starts since coming off the IL.

The Sox also have reinforcements on the way. Walker Buehler, Richard Fitts and Kutter Crawford are each on the IL and making progress towards returning to the club. Buehler landed on the IL earlier this month due to shoulder bursitis but is expected back next week without a rehab assignment. Fitts and Crawford are a bit further away but both have been throwing lately and appear to be nearing rehab assignments. Fitts landed on the IL a month ago due to a right pectoral strain. Crawford has been on the IL all year due to patellar tendinopathy in his right knee.

As those guys return, it will be harder for Houck to continue holding a spot unless he can turn things around. That’s if the Sox even give him another start, which doesn’t seem to be guaranteed. In addition to those injury returnees, there’s also Sean Newcomb, who did a huge solid for the Sox last night. After Houck exited, he absorbed 5 2/3 innings with two earned runs allowed. He now has a 3.51 ERA on the year, working both as a starter and reliever. Cooper Criswell and Josh Winckowski are on the 40-man and putting up good numbers in Triple-A.

Given how good Houck was last year, the Sox might be tempted into giving him a chance to work it out. However, they are currently in the midst of a super tight playoff race and can only afford so much patience. Houck has had previous success as a reliever, so perhaps they could kick him back there. But on the other hand, he has clear upside as a mid-rotation starter, so perhaps they don’t want to give up on that. He does still have options and could be sent down to Triple-A to try to right the ship there. One way or another, decisions will need to be made soon.

Photo courtesy of Ken Blaze, Imagn Images

Red Sox Notes: Wong, Narvaez, Yoshida, Crawford, Anthony

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Connor Wong started a Triple-A rehab assignment today, as the catcher appears to be nearing a return from the left pinkie finger fracture that sent him to the 10-day injured list back on April 8.  Speaking with MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith (multiple links) and other reporters today, Red Sox manager Alex Cora indicated the team will “play it day by day and we don’t have to rush” Wong, as the backstop will need more than one rehab appearance anyway.

Wong seemingly solidified his place as Boston’s first-choice catcher by hitting .280/.333/.425 with 13 home runs over 487 plate appearances last season.  He was ice-cold at the plate over his first 26 PA of 2025, so this early injury could serve as something of a fresh start for Wong’s season.

Carlos Narvaez has taken the bulk of the catching duties in Wong’s absence, and he has been impressive enough defensively that Cora said Narvaez will continue to get a good share of playing time even when Wong is back on the field.  “I’m not saying we split up the week but [Narvaez] will play a lot,” Cora said.

Known as a defensive specialist even during his time in the minors, Narvaez has lived up to that rep over his brief MLB career.  He has hit only .205/.279/.333 in 86 PA (15 with the Yankees in 2024, 71 with the Red Sox this year), but Narvaez has been outstanding in all facets of catcher-related glovework except for his ability to throw out baserunners.  With the Sox committing to Narvaez and Blake Sabol also on the roster as the current backup, Yasmani Grandal could trigger the May 1 opt-out clause in his minor league contract given the rather crowded path to big-league playing time once Wong is back.

Cora provided updates on some other injured Sox players, including something of a non-update on Masataka Yoshida.  The outfielder/DH began the season on the 10-day IL as he continued his recovery from October shoulder surgery, but though we’re now a month into the 2025 campaign, it doesn’t appear Yoshida is expected back any time in the near future.  Yoshida is still “just taking at-bats down there [at Boston’s Spring Training complex] and his throwing program,” Cora said.

Yoshida was healthy enough to hit during Spring Training but hasn’t been able to play the field, as he continues to build up his arm strength.  Given the amount of time Yoshida has already missed, it stands to reason that a shift to the 60-day IL might come sooner rather than later.  Such a roster move would sideline Yoshida until late May at the earliest, though that might not be an issue given Yoshida’s unsettled timeline.

Kutter Crawford has also yet to play in 2025, but the right-hander continues to make progress in his recovery from right patellar soreness.  Cora said that Crawford is set to throw a bullpen session at Boston’s extended spring camp, and Crawford will then advance to throwing a live batting-practice session later this week.  While Crawford looks to be on track, he might also be a candidate for a 60-day IL move if the Red Sox need the roster space, as the righty will still need to make multiple rehab starts to make up for all of the time he missed during the spring.

Star prospect Roman Anthony had an injury scare on Friday when the outfielder left a Triple-A game early after fouling a ball off his left foot.  X-rays were negative on Anthony’s foot, as Red Sox senior director of player development Brian Abraham said during an appearance on the Baseball Isn’t Boring radio show (hat tip to Rob Bradford), so it appears as though a worst-case scenario has been avoided.

Anthony is day-to-day for now, though all eyes will continue to monitor his status both in the short term and in regards to how any sort of injury might impact his inevitable MLB debut.  Between last season and this season, Anthony has a scorching .332/.459/.545 slash line over 266 Triple-A plate appearances, making it only a matter of time before arguably the sport’s best prospect arrives in Boston.  Where exactly Anthony would fit into a crowded Red Sox outfield has been a hot topic, though needless to say, Anthony might simply force the issue if his initial big-league production is anything close to his Triple-A work.

Red Sox Notes: Crawford, Rotation, Campbell

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The Red Sox opened the season with something of a patchwork rotation after the club lost three of its regular starters to the injured list to open the season. While Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito are both working their way back to the majors on rehab assignments, with Bello in particular scheduled to make his second of what MassLive’s Christopher Smith suggests could be three total rehab starts tomorrow, righty Kutter Crawford appears to be well behind the other two as MassLive’s Chris Cotillo writes that Crawford has not yet advanced to facing live hitters.

That both Bello and Giolito (who Smith notes is slated to start for Triple-A on Tuesday) are scheduled to make their second rehab starts this week is encouraging. The righties have both long been expected to rejoin the rotation at some point this month, and while Giolito’s exact timetable is still not yet fully clear the fact that Bello could return to the rotation after just three rehab outings means he could be back on the mound in Boston as soon as April 16 against the Rays in Tampa, assuming he maintains a schedule of regular rest and suffers no additional setbacks. Right-hander Richard Fitts and southpaw Sean Newcomb have been filling in at the back of the club’s rotation behind Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, and Walker Buehler, but it’s possible the club could opt for a six man rotation when the pitching staff is healthier.

That would potentially open up a path for either Fitts or Newcomb to continue starting for the Red Sox going forward while Crawford works his way back to the mound. Unfortunately, Cotillo suggests that’s still a ways away, writing that May or perhaps even June appear to be the most realistic timeline for the righty’s return to the majors. Crawford, 29, made all 33 of his starts for the Red Sox last year but pitched through knee issues last year that compromised his effectiveness in the second half and lingered into Spring Training. While Crawford told Cotillo that surgery is not currently on the table as a fix for his ailment, even the time he’s spent resting and treating the issue has served more to mitigate the pain rather than solve the problem entirely.

In other Red Sox news, Cotillo writes that club manager Alex Cora has indicated the club’s defensive plans for star prospect Kristian Campbell are changing. The versatile Campbell has split his time between second base and left field to this point in his brief big league career after playing the outfield, second base, third base, and shortstop in the minors. While no drastic changes to his usage are expected, with Campbell still remaining at the keystone on most days, Cora told reporters (including Cotillo) that the plan going forward is for Campbell to slide into center field on days where David Hamilton is in the lineup at second base.

Previously, Campbell had taken over left field with Jarren Duran shifting over to center on those days. The change comes as a result of Campbell’s comfort in center, where more than 80% of his minor league innings on the outfield grass have occurred, as well as Duran’s ability to handle the unusual left field situation in Fenway Park, which requires fielders to play balls off of the iconic Green Monster that tend to ricochet at atypical angles. Campbell has so far played just one game in left this year, but the amount of time he spends on the grass appears likely to be impacted primarily by the performance of Rafaela and Hamilton in the early days of the season and potentially the eventual call-ups of his fellow top prospects. If top infield prospect Marcelo Mayer makes it to the majors first, that would surely increase Campbell’s time spent in the outfield, while he’d likely spend even more of his time on the dirt if Mayer is beaten to the big leagues by top outfield prospect Roman Anthony.

Red Sox Place Liam Hendriks On 15-Day IL

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March 28: Despite the season-opening IL placement, Hendriks is not facing a severe injury, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic writes. He’s already been examined by Dr. Keith Meister, who performed his Tommy John surgery, and received a cortisone injection to help alleviate some inflammation and discomfort stemming from a compressed nerve. There’s no structural damage in Hendriks’ elbow. He’ll be shut down from throwing for three to five days but expects to resume throwing during next week’s series against the Orioles.

March 27: The Red Sox announced a slate of transactions to finalize their Opening Day roster, including a surprise placement of righty Liam Hendriks on the 15-day injured list due to elbow inflammation. Fellow right-hander Cooper Criswell, who had appeared ticketed for Triple-A Worcester, will instead break camp with the big league club.

Boston also selected the contracts of lefty Sean Newcomb and top prospect Kristian Campbell. Both have formally made the Opening Day roster. Lefties Chris Murphy and Zach Penrod were placed on the 60-day injured list to open spots. Murphy is recovering from UCL surgery performed last spring. Penrod was diagnosed with a left elbow sprain earlier in camp.

Additionally, the Red Sox placed Masataka Yoshida on the 10-day IL as he continues building back up from offseason shoulder surgery. Righties Brayan Bello (shoulder strain), Kutter Crawford (patellar tendinopathy) and Lucas Giolito (hamstring strain) were all placed on the 15-day IL, as expected.

Hendriks, who turned 36 last month, is entering the second season of a two-year, $10MM deal. The Red Sox signed him knowing that he’d miss most of all of the 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The expectation early in camp was that he and offseason signee Aroldis Chapman could compete for ninth-inning work. The tide changed quickly. Chapman fanned 14 of the 30 batters he faced and held opponents to two runs in 7 1/3 innings. Hendriks allowed seven runs on 14 hits in just 6 1/3 frames. He didn’t walk anyone but also only whiffed four of the 32 hitters he faced.

The Red Sox haven’t yet provided a timetable for when Hendriks might return to the mound. For now, there’s no indication that he’s dealing with a long-term injury. Presumably, manager Alex Cora will have more information regarding his potential timetable when he meets with the media later today.

Lucas Giolito Headed For MRI With Hamstring Tightness

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Lucas Giolito left Tuesday’s start after one inning with left hamstring tightness. Manager Alex Cora told the Boston beat that Giolito will head for an MRI on Wednesday (relayed by Ian Browne of MLB.com). The team doesn’t seem overly concerned, but it’s a situation worth monitoring.

Cora confirmed this morning that Brayan Bello will begin the season on the injured list after shoulder soreness delayed his ramp-up. He’ll join Kutter Crawford, who has yet to pitch this spring because of right knee soreness that dates back to last April. Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic writes that the timeline on Crawford remains uncertain. Cora indicated that while Crawford is making incremental progress, he isn’t close to even throwing a live batting practice session.

The Sox are slated for a season-opening top four of Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Walker Buehler and Giolito. Richard Fitts, Quinn Priester and Cooper Criswell are in the mix for the final rotation spot. If Giolito’s hamstring proves problematic, that’d likely press two of Fitts, Priester and Criswell into the starting five. The Sox are also building up non-roster invitee Michael Fulmer as a potential starter.

Giolito is still looking to make his Red Sox debut. He sustained a UCL tear in last year’s Spring Training and required internal brace surgery. Hamstring tightness is obviously less concerning than if Giolito had experienced any kind of renewed elbow discomfort. Still, the team won’t know until the imaging comes back whether there’s a risk of a season-opening IL stint.

Red Sox Injury Notes: Crawford, Bello, Giolito, Rotation, Abreu

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When the Red Sox opened camp last week, Kutter Crawford stood out as an immediate injury concern due to a lingering knee problem that first arose last April.  The situation hasn’t much improved, as manager Alex Cora told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (multiple links) and other reporters that Crawford’s right patellar tendon is still giving him discomfort following a long-toss session on Thursday and a bullpen session yesterday.

“Opening Day, right now, is an ’if.’  Let’s see what happens,” Cora said.  “[Crawford is] not feeling well.  He’s behind. We’ve got to make sure the knee is good so the shoulder doesn’t suffer.”

Unfortunately for the Sox, Crawford isn’t the only pitcher facing uncertainty early in camp, as Brayan Bello has been dealing with shoulder soreness since the start of spring camp.  Cora said Bello will undergo a strength test tomorrow, as the Red Sox continue to evaluate the right-hander’s status.  To date, Bello has been throwing, but the team has been taking it relatively slowly with this progression, and Cora said Bello hasn’t thrown any bullpens.  Between the two starters, Crawford seems to be more of a question mark than Bello, as Cora said that “with Kutter, that’s the one it looks like is going to be long.”

With over a month before Opening Day, there is plenty of time for either pitcher to still get healthy for the season in general, even if the Red Sox could be cautious in placing Crawford and/or Bello on the 15-day injured list just to provide more ramp-up time.  In theory, Boston has a good deal of pitching depth on hand in the form of Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts, Quinn Priester and Michael Fulmer, so any of these arms could fill in for Crawford, Bello, or Lucas Giolito, who is still working through his rehab from an internal brace surgery from last March.

Only five proper starters will be needed in the early going, as Cora confirmed that Boston will be using a five-man rotation.  Reports in January indicated that the Sox were at least thinking about a six-man staff in order to best utilize and manage its starting depth, but Cora said “we haven’t talked about a six-man.  You guys have talked about it.  If we go that route, it’s for a reason.  For right now, we’re taking the best five and using the bullpen.”

This lines the staff up as Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Walker Buehler, Giolito if healthy enough for Opening Day, and then potentially one of the depth starters if Bello and Crawford indeed aren’t available.  Plans could certainly change given Boston’s busy early schedule, as both Cotillo and Cora noted that the team plays on 19 of the regular season’s first 20 days.

The injury bug is also impacting Boston’s position players, as Wilyer Abreu has yet to start workouts due to a gastrointestinal virus.  A team spokesperson told Cotillo and other reporters that Abreu received “some abnormal labs” on his illness, but the “labs have been getting better, and he’s feeling better, but they’re waiting for those to get back to a normal range before baseball activity.”

More testing is coming on Monday, Cora said, and Abreu will sit through the weekend.  A timeline isn’t in place for how much time Abreu could still miss, or whether or not this absence could cost him any time on the injured list at the start of the season.  Abreu is slated for another heavy role in Boston’s outfield this season, as the Gold Glover looks to build on a very successful rookie year.

Kutter Crawford Behind In Camp Due To Lingering Knee Soreness

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Red Sox right-hander Kutter Crawford is behind schedule this spring, as noted by MassLive’s Christopher Smith. The issue at hand is soreness in his right patellar tendon, and Smith notes that the injury actually dates back to early last season, in his third start of the 2024 campaign.

Crawford, 29 in April, made a league-leading 33 starts for the Red Sox last year but faded badly in the second half. The right-hander pitched to a solid 3.00 ERA with a 3.77 FIP in his first 20 starts of the 2024 campaign, but things fell apart after the All-Star break as he struggled to the tune of a 6.59 ERA and 6.08 FIP with an eye-popping 20 homers allowed over the course of his last 13 starts. That rapid drop in production was fairly easy to dismiss as workload related given that Crawford’s 33 starts and 183 2/3 innings of work last year were a huge step up from the 23 starts and 129 1/3 innings he put together in 2023, but this news of playing through a patellar tendon issue casts his second half struggles in a different light.

As Smith notes, Crawford’s fastball velocity was down a tick last year relative to 2023, and the right-hander admits that he was struggling to properly push off the mound with his injured leg last season with fluctuating levels of pain that never fully evaporated throughout the season. That’s continued through the offseason and into Spring Training, resulting in Crawford being a bit behind the rest of the club’s pitching staff. While some pitchers have already progressed to facing live hitters this spring, Crawford is throwing low-intensity bullpens as he works to build up strength in his ailing knee.

When discussing the injury, Crawford made clear that surgery is not presently on the table, though he did acknowledge he and the club may have to “reassess the situation” if the pain he’s feeling continues after he’s finished rebuilding strength in his knee. Even with surgery not currently in the plans, however, Crawford’s availability for Opening Day appears to be in jeopardy. For his part, the right-hander said the decision about his availability for the start of the season is “not really in [his] hands” and that it will ultimately be up to how the team’s trainers want to handle his recovery process. Manager Alex Cora, meanwhile, described Crawford as “behind” in camp while also refusing to commit one way or the other regarding the righty’s status for the start of the season.

Fortunately for the Red Sox, they’re about as well-equipped to handle even an extended absence from last year’s 33-start workhorse as any club possibly could be. The club figures to welcome Lucas Giolito back after he missed the 2024 season due to UCL surgery, and they’ve also added southpaw Garrett Crochet and right-hander Walker Buehler to the rotation mix this winter. Crochet, Buehler, Giolito, and incumbent starts Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello already seemed likely to be part of the club’s starting rotation to open the season, and while a six-man staff including Crawford had been bandied about throughout the offseason there’s nothing stopping the Red Sox from simply going with a traditional five-man staff while Crawford recovers.

In the event the club wishes to use a six-man staff to open the season or another rotation arm gets hurt this Spring, however, the Red Sox do have a solid amount of depth at their disposal. Offseason signing Patrick Sandoval figures to be firmly in the club’s rotation mix when he returns to action at some point in the season half this year, and until then right-handers Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell, and Quinn Priester could all find themselves in the conversation for spot starts as needed throughout the season.

The Red Sox’ Surprising Rotation Anchors

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The Red Sox are out to a decent start in 2024. Despite dropping five of their last six, they’re above .500 at 19-18. They’re currently in third place in a division where most observers felt they’d finish fourth or fifth. That’s a credit to a pitching staff that leads the majors with a 2.75 earned run average.

Boston’s bullpen looked solid coming into the year, yet the rotation was more of a question mark. It wasn’t that the group was devoid of talent. It was light on pitchers with a proven track record as starters, though, particularly after Lucas Giolito went down for the season in Spring Training. That left the Sox relying on a handful of pitchers who’d been productive as relievers to shoulder important rotation jobs. They’ve delivered thus far, with Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford out to particularly excellent starts.

Houck and Crawford are the only members of Boston’s season-opening rotation who haven’t spent time on the injured list. Garrett Whitlock, Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta have all missed time. (Pivetta returned on Wednesday and Bello could be back by the weekend.) Houck wasn’t even a lock for the Opening Day starting five until Giolito’s injury. By all accounts, the Sox rotation should have struggled to this point.

Instead, they easily lead the majors with a 2.33 ERA. That’s at least partially a reflection of their usage. Only the White Sox — whose rotation has been one of the league’s worst — have allowed their starters to face an opposing hitter for a third time in an outing less often. Alex Cora is getting to the bullpen early, which takes some of the higher-pressure at-bats off the rotation. Yet that doesn’t entirely detract from how effective Boston’s starters have been.

Crawford, 28, has appeared in parts of four seasons. He held a rotation spot from June onward last year, turning in solid if unexciting results. Over 23 starts, he worked to a 4.51 ERA with an above-average 26.2% strikeout rate. It was enough for the Sox to guarantee him a rotation spot even when they expected Giolito would be healthy. He went into 2024 with a season-opening starting job for the first time in his career.

The right-hander has doubled down on last year’s success. Through eight starts, he carries a 1.75 ERA that ranks seventh among qualified starters. He has fanned 24.3% of opponents and is generating swinging strikes at a solid 12.3% clip. Crawford has held opponents to two or fewer runs in seven of his appearances.

Crawford probably isn’t an ace. He’s not missing bats at the level associated with the game’s truly elite pitchers. He’s a fly-ball pitcher who’ll surely allow a few more home runs over the course of the year. Crawford looks like a legitimate mid-rotation arm, though. He’s attacking hitters with more offspeed stuff — part of a team-wide philosophical shift under new pitching coach Andrew Bailey — and has done an excellent job staying off barrels. That’s true against left-handed and righty batters alike, making it difficult for opponents to play matchups and allowing him to at least work through the batting order twice in a start.

That has also been true for Houck, at least this season. Concerns about the right-hander’s low arm angle and heavy reliance on a sinker/slider combination have led some evaluators to project him to the bullpen going back to his college days in Missouri. It’s difficult to avoid huge platoon splits with that kind of profile. Left-handed batters can identify the ball early in his delivery. For most of his career, Houck hasn’t had a pitch to keep opposing southpaws at bay.

Houck kicked between starting and relief over his first three-plus seasons. He worked out of the rotation for all 21 of his appearances last year but struggled to a 5.01 ERA. Handling left-handed hitters was indeed an issue. Through the end of the 2023 season, Houck stifled righties to a .214/.282/.283 batting line behind a 27.4% strikeout rate. Lefty batters turned in a much more productive .251/.343/.420 slash while striking out 22% of the time. Lefties drew more walks and hit for much more power against him.

That hasn’t been the case this season. While Houck has still been better against right-handed hitters in 2024, that’s more a reflection of his dominance against everyone than any kind of issue handling southpaws. Houck is holding left-handers to a .227/.279/.258 slash in 104 plate appearances. His 21.2% strikeout rate isn’t great, but he has more than halved his walks and pushed his ground-ball percentage north of 60%. Even if they’re still putting the ball in play at a decent clip, lefty batters aren’t doing any kind of damage. (Houck has completely befuddled right-handed opponents, limiting them to a .203/.234/.284 mark behind a huge 31.2% strikeout rate.)

As is the case with Crawford, Houck has found that new level by moving away from his heater. Houck has essentially doubled the usage of his splitter against left-handed batters while scaling back on his fastball and cutter. The split isn’t a new pitch — he has had it throughout his career — but he’s getting more downward action on it. The uptick in its deployment suggests Houck is far more comfortable with the pitch than he’d been before this year.

Whether Crawford and Houck can maintain an upper mid-rotation pace or better over a full schedule remains to be seen. Neither pitcher has yet reached 130 major league innings in a season. Opposing lineups will adjust to their heavier reliance on offspeed stuff, and league-wide offense generally improves as the weather warms. They’ve each been among the best pitchers in the majors through six weeks, though. These kinds of breakouts are necessary for a team to outperform expectations and stick in the playoff mix against the odds.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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