While it’s no secret that addressing the top of the rotation is a priority for the Mets this winter, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that the Mets are hesitant to make long-term offers to the top starters available in free agency this winter. Sammon adds that each of Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, and Ranger Suarez would “hold some appeal” to the Mets on shorter-term deals.
At this point, it seems unlikely any of those pitchers will need to settle for something short-term. MLBTR predicted both Valdez and Imai to land six-year deals worth $150MM in free agency this winter as the offseason’s #6 and #7 free agents. Meanwhile, Suarez clocked in at #10 on MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents list and was predicted for a five-year deal worth $115MM. Right-hander Dylan Cease jumped the market to sign a seven-year deal with the Blue Jays late last month. His $210MM guarantee exceeds the seven-year, $189MM guarantee MLBTR predicted for the right-hander, although that deal does include deferred money that lowers the net present value of the deal a bit.
Even with that deferred money, however, Cease’s seven-year pact is hardly a troublesome omen for Valdez, Imai, and Suarez. Imai in particular won’t celebrate his 28th birthday until May and that youth figures to help him land a long-term deal this winter. Of course, free agency can be unpredictable. While the trend of short-term deals with opt outs have been more common for position players (Carlos Correa, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Pete Alonso) than pitchers in recent years, a few hurlers have found an unexpectedly soft market as well. Jack Flaherty was widely expected to land a long-term deal in free agency last offseason but ended up signing for just two years with the Tigers. Two offseasons ago, Blake Snell was viewed as a shoo-in for a six-year deal but wound up signing with the Giants on a short-term, opt-out laden pact.
Perhaps the Mets are willing to be patient on the free agent market to see if another high-end starter falls through the cracks like Snell did during the 2023-24 offseason. Another option would be to move a tier down in free agency to sign a short-term deal with a player who has still shown front-of-the-rotation upside. Michael King is viewed as being a potential top-of-the-rotation arm whose years will be limited coming off an injury-marred season, and the Mets are among the teams with known interest. Sammon floats Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly as other possibilities, either of whom would be plausible fits. Kelly turned in a 3.52 ERA in 32 starts last year, but will be forced to stay short-term by the fact that he’ll play next season at the age of 37. Gallen has shown ace-level upside in the past and is only 30, but enters free agency coming off the worst season of his career.
Another option for the Mets would be to keep tabs on the trade market. Sammon notes that Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller is someone that New York would “likely” view as an upgrade to their internal rotation options, to say nothing of more established front-end options like Freddy Peralta or higher upside players like MacKenzie Gore and Edward Cabrera. Keller will make $54.5MM over the next three seasons, while Gore and Cabrera are controlled via arbitration through 2027 and ’28 respectively. Peralta (as well as ace lefty Tarik Skubal, should the Tigers make him available) would only be controlled for one season before they would hit free agency and surely seek the sort of long-term deals the Mets are looking to avoid.
Speculatively speaking, that could make a controllable starter like Keller, Gore, or Cabrera and ideal fit for the Mets. The club already appears motivated to make moves on the trade market this winter, with Kodai Senga and Jeff McNeil among the club’s rumored trade candidates. In addition to those veteran names, the Mets have a number of young infielders (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuna, and Ronny Mauricio) who could be made available in the right deal. For a team like the Pirates or Marlins looking to add help on offense, any of those names would surely be attractive pieces to bring into the fold.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that a significant number of starting pitchers move on the trade market this winter. If a run on starting pitching begins in free agency while the Mets are focused on the trade market, the club could find that the patient approach it took backfired and left them without a true front-end talent to pursue—or that they had to pay a premium to land one of the last arms remaining on the market. It’s a difficult needle the Mets will have to thread if they want to land a front-end arm on a shorter-term arrangement, and fans are surely hoping they’ll do a better job of doing so than they did with last winter’s disappointing deals for Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, and Frankie Montas. Of that trio, only Holmes managed to stick in the rotation by the end of the year.
This guy Stearns is his own enemy. Go ahead, sign Morton and Cobb for 1 year and then everyone will wonder how this team didn’t make the playoffs yet again. What an egotistical fool.
I feel like this guy does a disservice to his team. Dude you have the backing of a billionaire. Stop acting like this is a challenge to produce the best team on a budget. You don’t get an award for that. use your financial might do you don’t waste Soto’s best years with half a team.
Unless Stearns leaves his comfort zone, the most likely SP options are trades for expensive guys that aren’t all that good, like Berrios or Luis Castillo, or FAs like Chris Bassitt or Merrill Kelly.
In other words, nothing to significantly improve the rotation.
Or a bigger trade for Ryan or Peralta, but that will cost for sure
He has said many times he doesn’t want to trade top prospects, that’s why I didn’t include those options.
Wonder if jays jumped the market on cease and most teams are shying away from long term deals for arms
All the more reason to trade whatever it takes for Skenes. Please tell me what number one pitcher will only sign short term? An ace is what they desperately need.
You New York fans are silly willies. Skenes won’t be traded this year or next season
Cohen one of the few owners who can somewhat easily absorb sunk costs at end of contract. The marketplace right now is paying for the prime years and the likely decline years. Stearns seems quite a stubborn guy
Saikō no tōshu to taisen suru chansudesu, Tarik Skubal.
Dojāsu o attō suru.
Piza o ogoru yo soshite Ōtani ni tsuite warukuchi ga ieru. Anata wa bīru o motte kimasu.
I just don’t think Skubal is being moved.
I understand where he’s coming from but he believes he’s the smartest guy in the room but the reality is his thinking will not get the team into the playoffs
They are not alone. Few long-term pitching contracts work out well, so a lot of teams have a similar view to the Mets.
Cohen signed the wrong smart guy from Milwaukee
I simply don’t understand the logic. By all accounts, he’s right in his belief that long-term pitching deals are a bad investment, but it’s a necessary evil that’s a part of getting top-tier pitching. Sterns should be using his ownership’s financial power (it’s obvious that Cohen doesn’t have a strict budget) to sign the top pitchers and address his team’s weaknesses.
Imho, Mets should trade anyone and everyone, save for one or two key prospect pitchers, for one of Skubal/Peralta, and attempt to sign him to an extension.
His approach is eerily reminiscent of Cashman – try to acquire several good, but not great, players and add up the WAR, run expectancy, and calculate the Pythagorean win total. Cashman does, however, go after top pitching.
These guys tend to overthink baseball.
The lack of pitching depth is what killed the Mets, or at least was a factor in their collapse. Stearns has the backing of an owner that wants to win, he should really be going nuclear and getting a TOR starter this offseason while they have this window to win.
The problem with this approach is you probably won’t get what you want, but the back-end worry about injury (or deteriorating performance) is a real one. Gerrit Cole is a good example. On the field, high quality. But now a lost year. I wonder if the old “Lackey” idea isn’t something that comes back on some contracts.
Good. Modern day starting pitchers are overly priced for the work they do. Go 4 or 5 innings every 5 days. You’re just a glorified opener. Should get paid similar to a bullpen guy. Tired of these weak, modern day guys who can’t go 9+. Stop babying these guys.