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Tatsuya Imai

Mets “Reluctant” To Make Long-Term Offers For Free Agent Starters

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While it’s no secret that addressing the top of the rotation is a priority for the Mets this winter, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that the Mets are hesitant to make long-term offers to the top starters available in free agency this winter. Sammon adds that each of Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, and Ranger Suarez would “hold some appeal” to the Mets on shorter-term deals.

At this point, it seems unlikely any of those pitchers will need to settle for something short-term. MLBTR predicted both Valdez and Imai to land six-year deals worth $150MM in free agency this winter as the offseason’s #6 and #7 free agents. Meanwhile, Suarez clocked in at #10 on MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents list and was predicted for a five-year deal worth $115MM. Right-hander Dylan Cease jumped the market to sign a seven-year deal with the Blue Jays late last month. His $210MM guarantee exceeds the seven-year, $189MM guarantee MLBTR predicted for the right-hander, although that deal does include deferred money that lowers the net present value of the deal a bit.

Even with that deferred money, however, Cease’s seven-year pact is hardly a troublesome omen for Valdez, Imai, and Suarez. Imai in particular won’t celebrate his 28th birthday until May and that youth figures to help him land a long-term deal this winter. Of course, free agency can be unpredictable. While the trend of short-term deals with opt outs have been more common for position players (Carlos Correa, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Pete Alonso) than pitchers in recent years, a few hurlers have found an unexpectedly soft market as well. Jack Flaherty was widely expected to land a long-term deal in free agency last offseason but ended up signing for just two years with the Tigers. Two offseasons ago, Blake Snell was viewed as a shoo-in for a six-year deal but wound up signing with the Giants on a short-term, opt-out laden pact.

Perhaps the Mets are willing to be patient on the free agent market to see if another high-end starter falls through the cracks like Snell did during the 2023-24 offseason. Another option would be to move a tier down in free agency to sign a short-term deal with a player who has still shown front-of-the-rotation upside. Michael King is viewed as being a potential top-of-the-rotation arm whose years will be limited coming off an injury-marred season, and the Mets are among the teams with known interest. Sammon floats Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly as other possibilities, either of whom would be plausible fits. Kelly turned in a 3.52 ERA in 32 starts last year, but will be forced to stay short-term by the fact that he’ll play next season at the age of 37. Gallen has shown ace-level upside in the past and is only 30, but enters free agency coming off the worst season of his career.

Another option for the Mets would be to keep tabs on the trade market. Sammon notes that Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller is someone that New York would “likely” view as an upgrade to their internal rotation options, to say nothing of more established front-end options like Freddy Peralta or higher upside players like MacKenzie Gore and Edward Cabrera. Keller will make $54.5MM over the next three seasons, while Gore and Cabrera are controlled via arbitration through 2027 and ’28 respectively. Peralta (as well as ace lefty Tarik Skubal, should the Tigers make him available) would only be controlled for one season before they would hit free agency and surely seek the sort of long-term deals the Mets are looking to avoid.

Speculatively speaking, that could make a controllable starter like Keller, Gore, or Cabrera and ideal fit for the Mets. The club already appears motivated to make moves on the trade market this winter, with Kodai Senga and Jeff McNeil among the club’s rumored trade candidates. In addition to those veteran names, the Mets have a number of young infielders (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuna, and Ronny Mauricio) who could be made available in the right deal. For a team like the Pirates or Marlins looking to add help on offense, any of those names would surely be attractive pieces to bring into the fold.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that a significant number of starting pitchers move on the trade market this winter. If a run on starting pitching begins in free agency while the Mets are focused on the trade market, the club could find that the patient approach it took backfired and left them without a true front-end talent to pursue—or that they had to pay a premium to land one of the last arms remaining on the market. It’s a difficult needle the Mets will have to thread if they want to land a front-end arm on a shorter-term arrangement, and fans are surely hoping they’ll do a better job of doing so than they did with last winter’s disappointing deals for Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, and Frankie Montas. Of that trio, only Holmes managed to stick in the rotation by the end of the year.

Cubs, Phillies, Yankees Among Teams Interested In Tatsuya Imai

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The Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball posted ace Tatsuya Imai for major league teams back on Nov. 19. The flamethrowing 27-year-old has until Jan. 2 to negotiate a deal with interested MLB clubs. The Mets, Cubs and Orioles have each been linked to the right-hander so far. The Cubs, in particular, are expected to be a “strong” player in Imai’s market, per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. They also made an offer to Dylan Cease before the former Cy Young runner-up (and former Cubs draftee) signed with the Blue Jays last week, according to Levine.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds the Phillies and Yankees as another pair of teams in the running for Imai. He adds that Imai’s camp could schedule in-person visits with interested teams following next week’s Winter Meetings — if he hasn’t already agreed to a deal by that point.

The Cubs make a sensible fit for Imai, even after countryman Shota Imanaga accepted Chicago’s $22.025MM qualifying offer, opting to forgo free agency in the process. Manager Craig Counsell’s rotation currently includes Imanaga, Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and Colin Rea. Ace Justin Steele is still on the mend from UCL surgery performed last April. He won’t be ready for Opening Day. Javier Assad and Ben Brown could both factor in, too, but both have bullpen experience and minor league options remaining.

Chicago’s interest in bolstering the rotation is well-known. Even after Imanaga opted to return, the Cubs have reportedly been seeking a playoff-caliber starter to add to the top portion of their staff. Imai isn’t necessarily a slam-dunk to fit that description, but his electric stuff and recent performance in NPB suggest he has that ceiling.

Imai, who’ll turn 28 next May, has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the past four NPB seasons — headlined by a career-low 1.92 mark in 163 innings in 2025. Along the way, he’s steadily increased his strikeout rate while at the same time lowering his walk rate. Those improvements culminated in last year’s dominant season, wherein Imai punched out 27.8% of the batters he faced and cut his walk rate to a tidy 7%. He’s one of NPB’s hardest throwers, topping out around 99 mph and sitting more comfortably in the mid-90s. Imai complements that pitch with a slider, splitter and changeup.

Signing Imai would push Rea back into his familiar swingman role and could even create a logjam if everyone is healthy once Steele finishes off his rehab from surgery. That’s wishful thinking, however, given the proliferation of pitching injuries throughout the sport. And if the Cubs do manage to have a full contingent of healthy rotation arms at that point, it’d fall under the “good problem to have” cliche. A playoff rotation including a healthy Steele, Horton and Imai could be formidable.

The Phillies, meanwhile, haven’t been big players in free agency for pitchers — at least not to the extent they have with hitters — outside of retaining homegrown Aaron Nola on a seven-year contract. However, that decision is now one of many contributing to a far shakier outlook than we’re used to seeing with the Philadelphia rotation.

Left-hander Cristopher Sanchez broke out as a top-tier arm with this year’s runner-up finish in Cy Young voting, but the rest of the staff has more questions and/or dwindling club control. Ranger Suarez is already a free agent. Zack Wheeler underwent thoracic outlet surgery late in the season. He’s owed $84MM over the next two seasons. Nola struggled to the worst extent of his career, posting an ERA north of 6.00 in 2025. Jesus Luzardo is a quality mid-rotation arm but will be a free agent next winter. Taijuan Walker is also entering the final season of a four-year deal. He rebounded to an extent in 2025, but the first two seasons of that $72MM pact were a disaster. Andrew Painter has long been one of the game’s top pitching prospects, but he was hit hard in Triple-A during his return from 2024 Tommy John surgery.

Obviously, the Phillies already have a lot of money on the long-term books — but perhaps not to the extent some might think. Nola, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper are the only players signed beyond the 2027 season. A backloaded deal for Imai — likely one including at least one opt-out opportunity — could make his salary more manageable in years one and two. Those seasons would dovetail with the remaining years on the contracts of Wheeler (through 2027) as well as Walker (through 2026), Nick Castellanos (through ’26), Jose Alvarado (through ’26) and Matt Strahm (through ’26).

Signing Imai would give the Phillies another large contract on the books but also offers protection against a potentially thinned-out starting group come 2027. Luzardo and Walker are free agents at that point. Painter hasn’t pitched in the majors yet. It’s hard to know what to expect from Wheeler and Nola in 2026 — let alone 2027. Imai (or another multi-year rotation acquisition) could provide some protection, although he’s obviously an untested commodity himself (at least against MLB opposition).

On paper, the Yankees’ rotation need is the least acute of this group. Gerrit Cole could be back relatively early in 2026. Max Fried was dominant in his first season in Yankee Pinstripes. Carlos Rodon was outstanding in 33 starts. Luis Gil, Cam Schlittler and Will Warren are all impressive-looking young starters. Clarke Schmidt could be back late in the season after July Tommy John surgery.

The Yankees already have three pitchers on contracts valued at $162MM or more. Imai would very likely require a fourth commitment of over $100MM and do so at a time when the team is facing questions in the infield and in the outfield. If the Yankees believe Imai can pitch at or near the top of a major league rotation, however, they could sign him and use some of their young pitching and/or prospect depth to make compelling offers for bats on the trade market. It’s a thin offseason with regard to free-agent hitters, after all.

Whoever signs Imai will need to do so within the next four weeks. His posting window closes Jan. 2. The team to sign him will also owe a separate release fee to the Lions in NPB. That fee will equal 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any guaranteed money thereafter. Additional earnings unlocked via incentives, escalators and club option years would also be subject to that 15% rate once they become guaranteed.

Giants Focusing More On “Modestly Priced” Pitchers

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Giants team chairman Greg Johnson and general manager Zack Minasian have each downplayed the idea that the team will be pursuing long-term (and therefore more pricier) pitching signings this offseason, due to both the risk associated with such contracts and the number of lengthy and expensive contracts already on San Francisco’s books.  As such, it probably isn’t a big surprise that “a lot of their market pitching inquiries have been for more modestly priced arms,” according to ESPN’s Buster Olney.

The context of Olney’s report comes in the context of speculation that the Giants could be a suitor for Tatsuya Imai, as it would seem the Giants might not be willing to meet Imai’s asking price.  There is a widespread belief that Imai’s eventual contract will run deep into the nine figures — MLB Trade Rumors projects a six-year, $150MM deal for Imai, who ranked seventh on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.

If the Giants were going to make a longer-term commitment to a pitcher, Imai might fit the bill given his relative youth (he doesn’t turn 28 until May) and naturally his excellent track record in Nippon Professional Baseball.  Imai’s recent interview on the Hodo Station show also caught the attention of Giants fans, as Imai suggested that while he’d enjoy playing with the Dodgers, “winning against a team like that and becoming a world champion would be the most valuable thing in my life.  If anything, I’d rather take them down.”

Still, Imai’s ability to carry his success over to Major League Baseball isn’t seen as a sure thing amongst evaluators.  If San Francisco was going to splurge on a top-end starter, spending big on a pitcher who’s more proven against MLB hitters would seem to carry more appeal to a Giants organization that wants to minimize risk in its rotation investments (that is, if the Giants decided to spend big on any pitcher at all).

While there’s no such thing as having too much frontline pitching, the Giants are already ahead of a lot of teams by having a clearcut ace in Logan Webb.  Robbie Ray also pitched well in 2025 after missing most of the 2023-24 seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery.  This duo gives the Giants two starters they can count on to take the ball in a playoff series, plus homegrown starter Landen Roupp also pitched well in his first extended taste of big league action in 2025.  However, there isn’t any proven depth beyond this group, making the rotation a priority for Buster Posey’s front office this winter.

If the Giants are primarily looking at second- or third-tier options, there’s still plenty of talent to be had amongst veteran arms who might be limited to shorter-term contracts based on their age alone.  Signing Justin Verlander to a one-year, $15MM deal last offseason worked out for the team, so re-signing Verlander or perhaps seeking out this winter’s version of a “Verlander contract” with another pitcher is more the Giants’ speed.  Inking at least one veteran to eat innings and stabilize at least one rotation spot would allow San Francisco’s younger pitchers some space to compete amongst themselves for a fifth starter’s role, and ideally one could emerge as Roupp did last year.

Though there’s some sound reasoning behind the Giants’ approach to starting pitching, the strategy probably isn’t going to sit well with Bay Area fans wondering why the team isn’t willing to spend at a higher level.  The Giants have exceeded the luxury tax threshold just once in the last eight seasons, as after paying a minimal tax bill in 2024, the club ducked back under the line again in 2025.  Johnson’s non-committal stance towards paying the tax or even exceeding $200MM in payroll space also doesn’t lend itself to the idea that San Francisco is planning anything truly substantial on the spending front this winter, and certainly not on the pitching side.

Orioles Showing Interest In Kyle Schwarber, Tatsuya Imai, Framber Valdez

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Earlier this month, Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias said his team is open to signing free agents who have rejected a qualifying offer, and would therefore cost the O’s their third-highest selection in the 2026 draft in addition to whatever the free agent would command in salary.  Of the nine players who rejected the QO, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Baltimore has shown some interest in Framber Valdez, Kyle Schwarber, and Dylan Cease (before Cease signed with the Blue Jays yesterday).  In addition to qualified free agents, the Orioles have “checked in on” Tatsuya Imai, as part of the team’s explorations of the upper tiers of the pitching market.

Heyman also linked Baltimore to Pete Alonso a couple of weeks ago, but now notes that the chances of a signing may have dimmed since the Orioles retained Ryan Mountcastle past the non-tender deadline.  This doesn’t mean that Mountcastle couldn’t still be traded or cut loose entirely if a premium bat became a realistic option for Baltimore, though Elias said earlier this week that the team thinks Mountcastle can rebound after a hamstring strain hampered his production in 2025.

Signing Alonso or Schwarber would further deepen what is already perhaps an overcrowded mix of position players in Baltimore.  Schwarber can play a corner outfield spot on an occasional basis but is largely a DH-only player at this stage of his career, further reducing the Orioles’ flexibility in trying to find at-bats for the rest of its current players.  A trade or two might ease up this logjam, of course, and the Orioles could then acquire pitching via the trade market rather than free agency.

Even if a Schwarber or an Alonso creates some questions about lineup construction, the Orioles would happily accept that as a proverbial “good problem to have” if it means adding an elite power bat.  Schwarber and Alonso are also both known to be clubhouse leaders, and adding a veteran mentor to a young O’s team might carry benefits beyond just what either player can provide at the plate.

There is a widespread belief that the Phillies will pay top dollar to re-sign Schwarber, but naturally that hasn’t stopped other teams from looking into his market.  The Orioles join the Red Sox and Pirates as teams known to have shown interest in Schwarber’s services, and clubs like the Reds and Yankees have been more speculatively linked.  Alonso’s market hasn’t been as robust in terms of public interest, though the Mets remain in the mix for another reunion with their longtime slugger.

The Orioles have already added one prominent bat this offseason by acquiring Taylor Ward from the Angels for Grayson Rodriguez, in a move that surprised some pundits since it further reduced the Orioles’ list of rotation options.  This could indicate that if the O’s do break the bank on a big-ticket signing, it will be for a starting pitcher to help stabilize the rotation.  Cease’s rather quick departure from the market (and to an AL East rival) only puts more pressure on the Orioles to find another frontline arm.

Valdez or Imai would certainly fit the bill, albeit in two different fashions.  Valdez is a proven commodity at the MLB level, and is particularly a known quantity to Elias since Valdez joined the Astros organization as an international signing and then broke into the majors when Elias was still working in Houston’s front office.  Imai is over four and a half years younger than Valdez and perhaps has more pure upside based on his results in Japan, but it remains to be seen if Imai can translate that success over to the majors.  The O’s also don’t have a long track record in signing Japanese talent, though the club did add Tomoyuki Sugano last winter.

Tyler O’Neill’s three-year, $49.5MM contract remains the only multi-year free agent deal the Orioles have signed during Elias’ seven years running the front office, though in fairness, much of Elias’ tenure was spent either rebuilding or working under some ownership turmoil.  David Rubenstein’s purchase of the franchise in early 2024 didn’t immediately lead to a huge payroll boost, though the club did ink star prospect Samuel Basallo to an eight-year, $67MM extension this past summer.  Basallo and O’Neill represent the only contracts on Baltimore’s books beyond 2026, and while the Orioles certainly have interest in locking up other young stars to extensions, there is plenty of future financial room for the O’s to make a splashy signing (or two) this winter.

Tatsuya Imai To Be Posted November 19th

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TODAY: Imai has officially been posted, as the league informed teams today.  Imai’s posting window opens tomorrow at 7am CT and closes on January 2 at 4pm CT.

NOVEMBER 12: It was reported last week that right-hander Tatsuya Imai would be posted by the Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball. His agent Scott Boras met with members of the media today at the general managers meeting and said the posting will become official on November 19th. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet was among those to pass it along.

Once the posting becomes official, it will open up a 45-day window for Imai and Boras to negotiate will all 30 major league clubs. Technically, they will have until early January to work something out. It’s probably fair to expect a deal to come together before the holidays, when the hot stove activity tends to slow down.

Imai should garner lots of interest based on his results and also his age. His earned run average in Japan has been 2.34 or lower in three straight seasons now, including a 1.92 mark in 2025. His strikeout rate has ticked up from 24.4% in 2023 to 26.3% last year and 27.8% this year. Meanwhile, his walk rate has dropped from 11.4% to 9.8% to 7% in those years.

He is currently 27 years old, turning 28 in May. Teams have shown that they value that youth. Recent deals for young players like Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee have surged beyond expectations.

Imai won’t have as much earning power as Yamamoto, who secured $325MM over 12 years. Yamamoto was even younger, having just turned 25 when he was posted, and also had the superior track record of performance. Still, Imai should find lots of interest. MLBTR predicted he could secure a $150MM guarantee on a six-year deal.

The signing team will also owe the Lions a posting fee, on top of the guarantee they give Imai. The Lions will get 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the contract’s next $25MM, and 15% of any money above the $50MM mark. If Imai were to sign a deal matching MLBTR’s $150MM projection, his new team would owe the Lions a $24.375MM posting fee.

The righty has already been connected to the Mets. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported today that the Yankees will be looking at Imai, as well as Lucas Giolito. The Yanks go into 2026 with their rotation in flux. Due to injuries, it projects to be much different later in the year compared to the end of camp. Gerrit Cole is still recovering from last year’s Tommy John surgery and won’t be ready by Opening Day. Carlos Rodón underwent a procedure to remove loose bodies from his left elbow and is expected to start the year on the injured list as well. Clarke Schmidt had internal brace surgery in July and could rejoin the club in the second half.

With those absences, the Yankees project to start the season with Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil, Will Warren and Allan Winans in the rotation. Adding to that group would be an understandable target. It’s possible that things get tight later in the year as Cole, Rodón and Schmidt get healthy, but other injuries could also pop up along the way.

Giolito should be a far more affordable addition than Imai. MLBTR predicted him for a two-year, $32MM deal. He was once a borderline ace but hasn’t been at that level in a while. His ERA finished near 5.00 in 2022 and 2023. He missed 2024 due to internal brace surgery. He returned in 2025 and posted a 3.41 ERA but with less impressive stuff under the hood. HIs 19.7% strikeout rate was below league average and well below the 33.7% mark he had back in 2020. He also finished the season back on the IL with an elbow issue, though he says that has now passed.

There are plenty of other starting pitchers the Yankees could consider at different price levels. Presumably, their plans in the rotation will depend upon what they do elsewhere. They have to address their outfield, with Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham having both reached free agency. It’s also possible they look to remake a bullpen that was a source of frustration in 2025.

Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images.

Kazuma Okamoto To Be Posted November 19th

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It’s been known for nearly a month now that NPB infielder Kazuma Okamoto is set to be posted by the Yomiuri Giants this winter, but a report from Nikkan Sports (Japanese language link) this morning provided a bit more specificity regarding Okamoto’s timeline. He’ll be officially posted tomorrow, on November 19th, and that will kick off a 45-day window for teams to negotiate with Okamoto, who is represented by Scott Boras of the Boras Corporation.

That’s the same posting date as right-hander Tatsuya Imai, a fellow Boras client. Boras told reporters (including those at Nikkan Sports) that the pair would follow the same approximate timeline. They’ll be posted tomorrow before traveling to the United States in early December. That sets them up to be in the country in time to begin negotiations with clubs ahead of this year’s Winter Meetings, which are set to run from December 7 through December 10 this year. The posting window for both Okamoto and Imai is set to end in early January, but it would not be a surprise to see the pair to sign before the holidays given the slowdown of activity around that time.

Turning back to Okamoto specifically, the 29-year-old is coming off a strong season in 2025 that was abbreviated by an elbow injury. While he only played in 69 games, he managed to slash .327/.416/.598 with 15 homers and 21 doubles in just 293 trips to the plate. He also showed strong contact ability and plate discipline with 11.3% strikeout and walk rates. That’s an unusually low strikeout rate by his standards, but even his 17.7% clip since the start of the 2018 season is nothing to scoff at. Impressive as Okamoto’s career .277/.361/.521 slash line in Central League play is, however, it’s worth remembering that NPB pitchers often lack the same high-end velocity that has become routine in MLB. Some scouting reports, including that of Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, have noted that Okamoto’s numbers suffer against mid-90s and higher velocity. Of course, that’s also a flaw that can improve with great exposure to those types of pitches.

Okamoto has spent plenty of time at both infield corners over the years, and there’s been some debate about his fit defensively in the majors. He’s generally viewed as more capable of sticking long-term at the hot corner than fellow infielder Munetaka Murakami, though it’s fair to expect some teams to view him as capable of being a regular at third while others see him as more of a first base only defender. Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso stand at the top of the third and first base markets, respectively, with Eugenio Suarez, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Arraez standing out among the other notable corner infield options available.

MLBTR predicted a four-year, $64MM deal for Okamoto at the outset of the offseason, though it’s worth noting there’s at least some reason to believe Okamoto, Imai, and Murakami could all outperform expectations financially, at least to some extent. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that some MLB clubs are hoping to “avoid falling further behind” the Dodgers in the Japanese market, and that this sentiment could help the three top NPB talents coming over from Japan this winter secure better-than-expected deals.

The team that ultimately signs Okamoto will owe Yomiuri a posting fee on top of whatever they guarantee the infield. The posting fee works out to be 20% of the first $25MM Okamoto signs for, 17.5% of the contract’s next $25MM, and 15% of any money above the $50MM mark. If Okamoto were to sign for the $64MM guarantee MLBTR predicted he’ll land, the signing team would owe a posting fee of approximately $11.5MM, which would take the total financial outlay for Okamoto’s services to $75.5MM.

Cubs Among Teams Interested In Michael King

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The Cubs are in the market for notable rotation upgrades this offseason, and right-hander Michael King is among the names on their radar, per Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. Mooney and Sharma also double down on the Cubs’ previously reported interest in Dylan Cease, noting that the Cubs are willing to forfeit the requisite draft pick and international funds to sign a player who has rejected a qualifying offer (which both Cease and King received from the Padres).

King, 31 next May, has had an atypical arc over the past few seasons. A swingman and multi-inning reliever for several years in the Bronx, he moved into the Yankees’ rotation late in the 2023 season and posted brilliant results in nine starts down the stretch. New York shipped him to San Diego as part of the Juan Soto blockbuster of the 2023-24 offseason, and King subsequently broke out as one of the top starters in MLB, starting 30 games for the Friars and turning in a 2.95 ERA with a hearty 27.7% strikeout rate against a solid 8.7% walk rate.

It was more of the same early in 2025. King sprinted out of the gates with a 2.59 ERA and even better rate stats (28.4 K%, 7.6 BB%) in his first 10 starts. By late May, he’d claimed the No. 6 spot on our Free Agent Power Rankings here at MLBTR. A nine-figure free agent deal seemed all but certain — provided King stayed healthy.

That proved to be a major caveat. The Padres placed King on the 15-day IL in late May with what was originally termed inflammation in his right shoulder. San Diego later called it a pinched nerve in his shoulder, but it wasn’t expected to be a prominent injury … at least not at first. King, however, wound up spending nearly three months on the shelf. In late June, King publicly voiced frustration with the injury, noting that there were days where he was in significant discomfort and could barely muster any baseball activity — and that he’d wake up a day later feeling close to 100% and ready to go.

King finally returned the mound in early August, giving the Padres hope that he’d be back atop their rotation down the stretch. His return lasted all of two innings, however — but not due to his previously problematic shoulder. Rather, King landed back on the 15-day IL due to a left knee issue that popped up in his return effort. An MRI revealed no structural damage, and King hoped to be back after a minimal stint but still wound up sidelined for another month.

King returned for good in early September, but his results in four starts were rocky. He pitched just 15 2/3 innings and yielded 10 runs on 18 hits (including six homers) with an 11-to-7 K/BB ratio. Brilliant as his start to the season was, King pitched a total of 17 2/3 innings with a 6.11 ERA following May 18. He made one appearance with San Diego in the postseason, pitching one inning of relief — and striking out the side in a perfect frame.

There’s little doubting that King is among the most talented arms in the sport, but his platform year before free agency finished with more of a whimper than a roar. The Padres seemingly don’t have any qualms about his health. They issued him a $22.025MM qualifying offer despite having minimal payroll flexibility this winter. San Diego would presumably be thrilled to have King back, given the need in their rotation, but they’re reportedly aiming for a similar payroll to 2025 and King accepting the QO would put them about $10MM over where they sat in ’25. If the Padres had major concerns about his shoulder and/or knee, they likely wouldn’t have risked the QO — particularly since their compensation for him signing elsewhere will only be a pick after the fourth round (rather than after the first) due to their status as a luxury tax payor.

King isn’t necessarily the sole focus of the Cubs’ hunt for rotation upgrades (nor is Cease). The Athletic duo note that Chicago has some interest in star NPB righty Tatsuya Imai and they could rekindle last offseason’s trade talks with the Marlins about their starting pitchers. Imai will be posted for major league teams next week. Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara is signed through 2026 with a club option for 2027, while 27-year-old righty Edward Cabrera is controlled via arbitration through 2028. It’s still possible that lefty Shota Imanaga returns, whether via accepting his own QO or perhaps working out a new two-year deal.

The Cubs currently project for a payroll of about $158MM, per RosterResource, which sits around $50MM shy of their end-of-season levels in 2025. They’re nowhere close to the luxury tax, currently sitting close to $75MM shy of next year’s $244MM first-tier threshold. Shortstop Dansby Swanson is currently the only Cubs player who’s guaranteed anything beyond the 2026 season. His seven-year, $177MM contract runs through 2029. There’s quite literally no free agent the deep-pocketed Cubs can’t afford to pursue, so the only limitations on their winter additions will be self-imposed if the bidding reaches a point that’s too far beyond the comfort zone of either the front office or owner Tom Ricketts.

Mets Interested In Tatsuya Imai

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The Mets are interested in Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai, according to Andy Martino of SNY. Imai has not been officially posted yet, but his team, the Saitama Seibu Lions of NPB, recently announced that they intend to do so. Martino notes that the Mets’ level of interest is not the same as it was for Yoshinobu Yamamoto two offseasons ago, implying that Imai is simply one of several arms the club is looking into.

Imai, 27, has pitched for the Lions for eight years and is a three-time NPB All-Star. After middling results in his first three seasons from 2018-20, he pitched to a 3.30 ERA in 25 starts in 2021 and has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in every full season since (he only made nine starts in 2022). This year, Imai turned in a career-best effort with a 1.92 ERA in 163 2/3 innings across 24 starts. He also set a career high with a 27.8% strikeout rate while decreasing his walk rate to a career-low 7.0%. His season was highlighted by a combined no-hitter on April 18, in which he pitched the first eight innings, as well as a 17-strikeout performance on June 17 that broke the club record previously set by Daisuke Matsuzaka.

The NPB requires players to have nine years of service time before they become unrestricted free agents. By allowing Imai to pursue a move to MLB one year early, the Lions will secure a posting fee based on the value of his contract. We at MLBTR project Imai for a six-year, $150MM contract and placed him seventh on our Top 50 Free Agents list. Based on that projection, any signing team would owe the Lions a $24.375MM posting fee. In terms of stuff, Imai boasts a 95-99 mph fastball as well as a slider and changeup. Based on that profile and his recent track record, he’ll be an intriguing target for clubs in need of starting pitching. That said, Martino notes that industry opinion is mixed on whether he can succeed as an MLB starter.

As for the Mets, it comes as no surprise that they would like to reinforce their rotation. The club’s starters ranked 18th in the majors with a 4.13 ERA in 2025, although they did lead the league with a 49.4% groundball rate. David Peterson, Clay Holmes, and Kodai Senga led the team in innings pitched, although Senga only made 22 starts due to missing a month with a right hamstring strain and being optioned to the minors in September. Peterson was worth 3.1 fWAR this year and is projected to earn $7.6MM in arbitration, while Holmes is under contract for $13MM with a player option for 2027. Beyond those three, the rotation picture is less certain. Frankie Montas declined to opt out of his contract, but he is a candidate to be released since he will miss next season recovering from a UCL surgery in August. Sean Manaea missed most of the season with a right oblique strain and struggled upon his return. Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong all debuted in 2025 and will factor into the rotation, though owner Steve Cohen has never been shy about spending big on free agents. Signing Imai could provide stability in the rotation behind Peterson, Holmes, and Senga while easing the rookies into larger roles.

Tatsuya Imai To Be Posted For MLB Teams This Offseason

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The Saitama Seibu Lions announced (Japanese language link) on their official team website that they have accepted Tatsuya Imai’s request to be posted to Major League teams.  Once Imai is officially posted, he’ll have 45 days to work out a contract with a big league team, or else he’ll return to the Lions for the 2026 Nippon Professional Baseball season.

It has been over two months since reports first surfaced about the likelihood of Imai’s availability this winter, and today’s news officially confirms the three-time NPB All-Star as one of the most intriguing arms of the 2025-26 free agent class.  Imai has a 3.15 ERA over 963 2/3 career innings with the Lions, with a 22.31% strikeout rate and a 11.52% walk rate.  While that career walk rate is on the high side, Imai has reduced that number in each of his last four seasons, and he had a very solid 7.02% walk rate over 163 2/3 innings in 2025.

Imai is only 27, and doesn’t turn 28 until May.  Between his age and an intriguing four-pitch arsenal (headlined by a fastball in the 95-99mph range and a plus slider), there’s a lot to like in terms of how Imai’s success in NPB might translate against Major League hitters.  This upside led MLBTR to place Imai seventh on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and we’re predicting a six-year, $150MM deal even though some evaluators feel Imai projects as a back-end starter or even as a reliever in the majors.

Imai qualifies for full free agency next offseason, so the Lions may feel that they can at least earn some money back via a posting fee by letting Imai go now rather than 12 months from now.  As per the terms of the MLB-NPB posting system, any Major League team that reaches an agreement with Imai will owe the Lions a staggered fee depending on the size of the deal, and on any future earnings (i.e. options, bonuses, etc.) attached to that initial contract.

The Lions will get 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the contract’s next $25MM, and 15% of any money above the $50MM mark.  So if Imai were to sign a deal matching MLBTR’s $150MM projection, his new team would owe the Lions a $24.375MM posting fee on top of Imai’s $150MM salary.

NPB’s Kazuma Okamoto, Tatsuya Imai Expected To Be Posted For MLB Teams

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7:34pm: Jon Heyman of The New York Post writes that Okamoto and Imai are indeed both expected to be posted this offseason.

12:24pm: Every offseason, a handful of high-profile players from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization in South Korea either reach true free agency or are made available to MLB teams by way of the posting system. We already know that slugging third baseman Munetaka Murakami (NPB’s Yakult Swallows) and steady right-hander Kona Takahashi (NPB’s Seibu Lions) will be posted this winter. Breakout infielder Sung Mun Song (KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes) is hoping to be posted for big league clubs as well. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports this morning that Yomiuri Giants third baseman Kazuma Okamoto and Seibu Lions righty Tatsuya Imai are also hoping to be posted by their clubs and make the jump to Major League Baseball.

The hope of being posted is notable, but that also does not guarantee either player will be available to North American clubs this winter. Yakyu Cosmopolitan — a terrific source for English-speaking fans with an interest in Japanese baseball — points out that NPB’s Giants are a typically anti-posting club who rarely make their stars available to MLB teams. Okamoto is the Giants’ captain. The Lions are more amenable to posting players, but they’ve already agreed to post Takahashi. Posting two members of their rotation would be difficult, but YC notes that Imai would be a true free agent after the 2026 season. The Lions could lose him for nothing in the 2026-27 offseason anyhow.

Okamoto turned 29 in June. He’s a six-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner who’s thrice led NPB in home runs. He missed more than three months of the current season after injuring his elbow in a collision at first base, but he’s healthy again and is batting .304/.385/.585 with 11 homers, 13 doubles, a triple and nearly as many walks (10.2%) as strikeouts (11.2%) in 196 plate appearances. Okamoto averaged 34 homers per season from 2018-23, “slipped” to 27 last year, and is now homering at the third-best rate of his career (once every 17.8 plate appearances).

Okamoto has been on the radar of MLB scouts for several years now, but if the Giants are going to post him, this will be the time to do it. Like Imai, he’ll have the requisite nine years of service to become a true free agent after the 2026 season. That hasn’t stopped the Yomiuri club from holding onto stars in the past. However, if Okamoto is set on eventually making a move to North America, the Giants’ decision boils down to posting him now and reaping a notable sum via the posting system or allowing him to walk with no compensation next winter.

The right-handed-hitting Okamoto played primarily third base early in his NPB career, but he’s seen significant time at first and has a handful of starts in the outfield corners as well. Okamoto has split his time between the corners this year but was primarily a first baseman in 2024. Sports Info Solutions credited him with the Fielding Bible Award as NPB’s best defender at first base in 2024, and Passan suggests that some MLB teams feel he’s better suited at first than at third.

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs agrees, labeling Okamoto as a “likely first-base-only defender” in the majors but crediting his plus power and consistent ability to pull the ball with authority. Longenhagen notes that, as is the case with most NPB hitters, there are questions about Okamoto’s ability to hit big league fastballs. The average NPB fastball is around 91 mph, compared to this year’s 94.4 mph average four-seamer in MLB (via Statcast). Longenhagen writes that Okamoto’s numbers against heaters greater than 94 mph “fall off a cliff.” It’s a valid concern, though the counter is always that a hitter could potentially adapt to better velocity when seeing it more frequently. That uncertainty will be baked into eventual price of a free agent contract if Okamoto is posted.

Even if Okamoto is limited to primarily playing first base, he’s a good defender there by all accounts. He has plus power, improving contact skills and draws plenty of walks. Since settling in as a regular in his age-22 season, Okamoto is a .276/.360/.524 hitter with an average of 39 homers per 162 games played. He currently has a career-low strikeout rate and the second-best ISO (slugging minus batting average) of his career. If he’s posted, there will surely be multi-year interest from MLB clubs.

Imai’s possible addition to the market is arguably even more intriguing, given the heavy price teams are willing to pay for prime-aged pitching. The 5’11” righty won’t turn 28 until next May. He’s in the midst of a career-best season, sporting a comical 1.50 ERA with a 28.8% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate in 143 2/3 innings. Dating back to the 2022 season, Imai boasts a sensational 2.10 earned run average. Passan notes that the right-hander sits 95 mph with his heater and tops out at 99 mph, giving him the sort of power arsenal that’s quite rare in NPB.

An ankle injury held him to nine games back in 2022, but Imai has topped 130 innings in three seasons since and is averaging seven innings per start for a second consecutive season. He’s on pace for back-to-back seasons of more than 170 innings. (Bear in mind that the NPB season is 144 games, not 162 as in MLB, and Japanese pitchers typically only start once per week.) Imai currently ranks seventh in NPB in innings pitched, and the six names ahead of him all have at least one extra start over him. He’s averaged more innings per start than all but one of those pitchers ahead of him on that leaderboard.

Passan writes that he polled more than a dozen scouts and front office executives on the type of contract Imai could command, with estimates ranging from $80MM on the low end to nearly $200MM on the high end. He’ll be three years older than Yoshinobu Yamamoto was when he landed his precedent-setting $325MM contract with the Dodgers but two years younger than Shota Imanaga was when he signed a four-year, $53MM deal that now looks like a bargain for the Cubs (and still will even after Chicago picks up an option to push the deal to $80MM over five years).

If Imai is posted, he’ll join Dustin May and Michael Soroka as free agent starters heading into their age-28 seasons. Imai would have considerably more earning power than either, as big league teams will pay a premium for his power arsenal and the allure of the unknown. Based on Imai’s age, arsenal and recent track record, there’s a chance that he could be the highest-paid pitcher of the entire free agent class this winter — if the Lions eventually choose to make him available.

For those in need of a refresher, the MLB-NPB posting system allows Japanese teams to post their players for all 30 MLB teams at their discretion. Players that are 25 or older and have six-plus years of experience can sign major league contracts for any length and any amount. When a player is posted, that opens a 45-day window for him to negotiate with any and all interested MLB clubs.

When a deal is reached, the MLB team must pay a posting/release fee to the player’s former NPB club. That sum is equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any money thereafter. That sum comes in addition to the contract. Any down-the-road earnings (e.g. club options, performance bonuses, etc.) are also factored in once they become guaranteed. For instance, if Imai were to sign a $125MM contract with an eventual club option for $25MM, his MLB team would owe the Lions an additional $3.75MM (15%) upon exercising that club option.

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