Latest On Astros’ Rotation
The Astros are planning to reinstate Tatsuya Imai from the injured list to face the Mariners next week, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. As Rome outlines, Imai’s rehab results haven’t been great but the banged-up Houston rotation needs any arms it can get as the club kicks off a stretch of 13 straight games without a day off on Friday.
At this point, it’s hard to know what to make of Imai. He has been pretty dominant in Japan for the past few years but MLB clubs were apparently skeptical of how he would translate to North American ball. While it was thought he could secure a long-term deal with a nine-figure guarantee, he settled for a three-year, $54MM deal with opt-outs after each season. The ideal path forward for Imai would have seen him prove his bona fides against big league pitching before returning to free agency to cash in.
So far, it is not going according to plan. He couldn’t get out of the third inning in his first start. His second outing was good, as he tossed 5 2/3 scoreless frames. But in the third start, he only recorded one out.
He then landed on the IL with the vague diagnosis of arm fatigue. He began a rehab assignment on April 28th. Per Rome, the plan was for just one rehab outing but he allowed five earned runs in two innings while walking three. The Astros decided to give him a second rehab outing, hoping for four or five innings with fewer walks. He got through three innings but walked five.
The control issues are a concerning development, considering that had been an issue in his time in Japan. From 2019 to 2023, he finished each season with a walk rate of at least 11.4%. He did show improvement, dropping that to 9.8% in 2024 and then 7% last year. For reference, MLB average is usually around 8 to 9%. In his three starts for the Astros this year, he walked 25% of the batters he faced.
General manager Dana Brown is quoted in Rome’s piece, saying basically that Imai needs to have more faith in his own arsenal. “A big part of it is just allowing him to free his mind up (and) attack major-league hitters like he used to attack hitters in Japan. Don’t overthink it and just lock in and be yourself,” said Brown. “That’s a big point we’re trying to make to him: just be yourself and have confidence in the stuff because your stuff plays at this level.”
That’s interesting framing considering past comments from Imai. Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball has been playing with a dead ball in recent years, with offense way down. The run-scoring environment was so low that Imai got bored.
“I didn’t always dream of going to MLB,” Imai said in November, as relayed by Yakyu Cosmopolitan. “But over the past two or three years […] I felt like there weren’t many hitters who were even trying to hit a homer off me anymore. A lot of lineups would just foul pitches off and run up my pitch count. I get that’s a valid part of strategy, but if I were a fan, I don’t think that kind of baseball is very fun to watch.”
This is perhaps an oversimplification but it’s possible the dead ball allowed Imai to attack the strike zone more, lowering his walk rates. With the move to MLB, maybe he has become more concerned with nibbling at the edges and has thus lost his feel a bit.
Time will tell if he can get back in good form but the recent numbers aren’t encouraging. The Astros are evidently going to try anyway, a reflection of their snakebit rotation. In addition to Imai hitting the IL for arm fatigue, they have lost Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier to shoulder strains this year. That’s on top of Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter, each of whom is still recovering from surgery performed last year.
Their rotation currently consists of Lance McCullers Jr., Mike Burrows, Spencer Arrighetti, Cody Bolton and Peter Lambert. McCullers is now a question mark for his next start. He couldn’t get through three innings yesterday, later telling Rome that it was due to issues with the fingernail on the index finger of his throwing hand. He is unsure if he’ll be able to take the ball next time.
The Astros are off today. In Cincinnati this weekend, they are scheduled to have Burrows and Arrighetti for the first two. After that, Bolton or Lambert could start on Sunday and/or Monday. Imai will be in the mix next week, perhaps as soon as Monday. If McCullers can’t take the ball and they want to bring someone else into the mix, their choices may be limited. Both Ryan Weiss and Jason Alexander have been optioned in recent days. A pitcher can’t be recalled after being optioned until 15 days have elapsed, unless someone else is going on the IL.
Kai-Wei Teng and AJ Blubaugh have been pitching some multi-inning stints from the bullpen and could take on some bulk. Colton Gordon was optioned on April 25th, so his 15-day window will soon be up. Miguel Ullola is on the 40-man but is struggling with control in Triple-A and the Astros haven’t called him up this year, despite calling almost every other hand on deck. J.P. France and Brandon Bielak are some non-roster options in Triple-A.
Photo courtesy of Thomas Shea, Imagn Images
AL West Injury Notes: Imai, O’Hoppe, Montgomery
Astros right-hander Tatsuya Imai landed on the 15-day injured list on April 13 with what the team called right arm fatigue, but he is progressing well in his rehab. Imai is set to throw a bullpen session tomorrow and could begin a minor-league rehab assignment as early as Tuesday, manager Joe Espada told Chandler Rome of The Athletic and other media. [UPDATE: Imai will indeed start his rehab assignment Tuesday with Double-A Corpus Christi, as per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart.] Although the exact nature of his arm fatigue isn’t clear, the team is surely hoping he’ll be back sooner rather than later.
Imai signed a three-year, $54MM deal with the club over the offseason, which fell below industry expectations for the former Japanese star. He has had a rough beginning, allowing seven earned runs and 11 unintentional walks in just 8 2/3 innings over three starts. That’s a very small sample, of course, and there is still plenty of time for Imai to establish himself as a big-league starter. For the Astros, the big picture concern is the fact that so many of their starting pitchers are injured right now. Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier are both out with Grade 2 right shoulder strains and won’t return for another 4-6 weeks. The struggling pitching staff, which has a 5.97 ERA overall, is the main reason the club is out to a 10-18 start in 2026.
A couple other injury notes from the AL West:
- Angels catcher Logan O’Hoppe was removed from today’s game due to left wrist irritation, the team announced. O’Hoppe took a foul ball off his wrist and finished the inning after being visited by the trainer. Travis d’Arnaud took over behind the plate in the eighth. O’Hoppe is now in his third season as the club’s starting catcher, though he has not been a productive hitter since 2024, when he posted a 102 wRC+ in 522 plate appearances. He declined in 2025, posting a mere 72 wRC+, and has been about the same to start 2026. It is unclear whether O’Hoppe will miss any time. Given the wrist irritation is in his receiving hand, the club might opt to play it safe for the next few days to avoid compromising his defense. He and d’Arnaud are the only catchers on the 40-man roster, so any absence might motivate the team to scour the waiver wire for a depth option.
- Rangers left-hander Jordan Montgomery threw a bullpen session today and will have at least one more before progressing to face live hitters, according to Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News. Based on that, he seems to be on track in his recovery from March 2025. Montgomery signed a one-year, major-league deal with the Rangers in February, with the expectation that he would start the year on the 60-day injured list before returning later in the season. His last season as an effective starter was in 2023, when he was worth 4.2 fWAR in 32 starts between the Cardinals and the World-Series winning Rangers. Now 33 and coming off an extended absence, he won’t be expected to replicate that upon his return. In the best case for Montgomery, he could slot in as a back-end arm if Jacob deGrom or Nathan Eovaldi gets injured or one of Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter underperforms.
Photo courtesy of Joe Nicholson, Imagn Images
Astros Place Jeremy Peña, Tatsuya Imai On Injured List
The Astros announced that they have placed infielder Jeremy Peña on the 10-day injured list with a grade 1 hamstring strain. Right-hander Tatsuya Imai has been placed on the 15-day IL due to right arm fatigue. Both of those IL placements are retroactive to April 12th. Right-hander Jayden Murray has been optioned to the Triple-A Sugar Land. In corresponding moves for those three, Houston has recalled left-hander Colton Gordon, right-hander J.P. France and infielder/outfielder Shay Whitcomb. France was just optioned and would normally have to wait 15 days before being recalled but an exception is made when someone is going on the IL.
At this point, there hasn’t been anything to indicate that either injury is particularly serious. However, the double blow is notable when considering the larger context. The team has already suffered a number of injuries and two more won’t help.
Peña departed Saturday’s game with an injury. The team initially announced the issue as right posterior knee tightness, though it appears further testing has found a hamstring strain. The Astros lost their center fielder a few days earlier, as Jake Meyers suffered an oblique strain. Now they will be without their everyday shortstop as well.
Losing Peña isn’t a good thing but the only silver lining is that it will be easier to spread playing time around to the club’s other infielders. Christian Walker has played almost every day at first base and the same is true of Jose Altuve at second base. Carlos Correa has been at third most days but has also taken over at short a few times to give Peña a day off. Isaac Paredes has slotted in at third when Correa has been at short and has also taken some time as the designated hitter when Yordan Alvarez is the DH.
With Peña now on the shelf for a bit, it’s possible the Astros could stabilize things by having Correa at short regularly, allowing Paredes to cover third on an everyday basis. That would mean less time in the field for Alvarez.
Losing Imai is potentially more impactful, even though he’s less established in the big leagues than Peña. Most of Houston’s injuries have been on the pitching side, so another domino falling there is worrisome. Both Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier have been felled by shoulder strains in recent weeks and now Imai is also on the shelf.
Losing three starting pitchers in quick succession is never good but it’s particularly poor timing in this case. The Astros are three games into a stretch of playing 13 in a row. They had planned to use a six-man rotation to get through that stretch, at least in part to accommodate Imai. Pitchers in Japan normally pitch once a week, as opposed to the five-day rotation that is common in North America. Using six starters for the 13 straight games would have helped Imai stay on a schedule he’s accustomed to while he’s still new to Major League Baseball.
Imai started on Friday in Seattle but didn’t make it out of the first inning. He walked the first two batters, allowed a single, threw a wild pitch, walked another batter, hit a guy with a pitch, induced a groundout and then walked another batter. He had already thrown 37 pitches and had recorded just one out when the Astros pulled him. The next day, he left the team for Houston to undergo testing for his fatigue. There’s no real information about his status but the Astros will proceed without him for at least a couple of weeks.
France, Ryan Weiss and Steven Okert combined to absorb 6 2/3 innings after Imai departed, with Enyel De Los Santos throwing in an inning as well. France was then optioned with Murray recalled. Lance McCullers Jr. took the ball on Saturday and lasted 4 1/3, with five relievers pitching after him. Yesterday, Cody Bolton started but only lasted one inning before he was removed due to back tightness. Murray pitched two innings in relief and Christian Roa took on 2 2/3, while two other relievers pitched shorter outings.
It’s already been quite a taxing few days for the club, with still ten games to go before their next day off. Mike Burrows is starting today’s game. After that, it’s fairly up in the air. Weiss, France and Roa are somewhat stretched out from their recent long relief work and could chip in. Spencer Arrighetti, Miguel Ullola and Jason Alexander are on optional assignment and could be recalled, though Alexander just threw six innings at Triple-A yesterday while Ullola threw 2 2/3 on Saturday. Arrighetti’s last outing was six innings on April 9th, so he could be next up.
Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images
Tatsuya Imai Dealing With “Right Arm Fatigue,” Undergoing Examination
5:04 pm: The official wording from the team is that Imai is experiencing “right arm fatigue,” according to Rome. He remains on the active roster as of now.
2:47 pm: As the Astros prepare for tonight’s game with the Mariners, Tatsuya Imai has left Seattle to return to Houston to undergo examination from team doctors. MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reported earlier today that Imai was heading to Houston, and The Athletic’s Chandler Rome adds the detail that Imai is dealing with a “tired arm,” in the words of a team source.
More will be known once the Astros’ in-house medical staff gets a look at Imai, and it is possible the righty is just dealing with a bit more fatigue than usual. Some adjustment time was probably inevitable for Imai in his first season in the majors, first and foremost because he is pitching with a bit less rest than usual. Starters in Nippon Professional Baseball usually start just once per week, as opposed to every-five-days approach of MLB clubs. Imai hasn’t even been on the five-day schedule yet, as he has had five full rest days between his starts.
That said, Imai’s 7.27 ERA over his first 8 2/3 Major League innings is a sign that something isn’t quite right. Ironically, his only good start came in the hitter-friendly environment of Sutter Health Park, as Imai tossed 5 2/3 shutout innings against the Athletics on April 4. That impressive outing was sandwiched between two duds — Imai allowed four runs over just 2 2/3 innings against the Angels on March 29, and last night the Mariners torched Imai for three runs in just a third of an inning. Imai retired only one of the seven Seattle batters he faced, as he hit a batter, allowed one hit, and issued four walks.
Imai told reporters (via interpreter) postgame that that he was bothered by both the cooler weather in Seattle and a hard mound at T-Mobile Park. McTaggart notes that Imai had also expressed his issues with getting used to both Major League mounds and the MLB baseball. Again, an adjustment period isn’t unusual for pitchers coming over from NPB for the first time, though the “tired arm” factor now adds an injury scare to Imai’s status.
Imai signed a three-year, $54MM deal with the Astros last offseason, and he can opt out after each of the first two seasons. The contract fell below most projections, as it seemed like several teams had concerns over Imai’s ability to translate his NPB success to MLB. Imai and his agent Scott Boras therefore settled for a shorter-term deal that still locks in some solid immediate money for the right-hander, and allowed him the flexibility to re-enter the market as early as next winter if he pitched well in his first season in the Show.
Losing Imai to the injured list would be another big hit to an already undermanned Houston rotation. Just within the last week, Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier were both placed on the 15-day IL due to Grade 2 shoulder strains. The plan for both pitchers is a re-evaluation after two weeks and a general shutdown period of at least three weeks, though the timelines are still fluid. Even in a best-case scenario, Brown and Javier won’t be back until May, leaving the Astros scrambling for starters even before Imai’s situation arose.
The Astros’ rotation currently consists of Imai, Mike Burrows, and Lance McCullers Jr. Cody Bolton already made one spot start and might be pressed into more rotation duty. J.P. France, Ryan Weiss, AJ Blubaugh, and Jason Alexander are other starting candidates either already in the big league bullpen or at Triple-A, and the Astros could use any of this group or more pitchers in a piggyback capacity rather than in a normal starting capacity. Houston won’t have any time for a rotation reset until an off-day on April 23, as Friday’s game was the first in a stretch of 13 games in 13 days for the club.
2026-27 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: April Edition
At the end of each season, certain players will have to decide whether to stick with their current contracts or become free agents. These contract provisions are sometimes referred to as opt-outs and sometimes as player options. Despite the different terminology, they are effectively the same, with the player being the one making the call.
Naturally, the player’s health and performance leading up to the decision will impact which way the player leans. Which players have that decision looming after the 2026 campaign? MLBTR takes a look, in alphabetical order. Player ages in parentheses are for the 2027 season.
- José Berríos (33): can opt out of remaining two years, $48MM
The Blue Jays and Berríos agreed to a seven-year, $131MM extension back in November of 2021. The Jays had just acquired Berríos from the Twins a few months earlier, when he had a year and a half of club control remaining. A few months later, with that control window down to one year, they locked him up to keep him around. He could opt out of the final two seasons of the deal, giving him a chance to hit the open market after his age-31 season, when another long-term deal would still be theoretically possible.
Back then, Berríos was a front-of-rotation workhorse who could be banked on for 3-5 WAR per year. He hasn’t been getting as many strikeouts lately, making him feel more like a veteran innings-eater type. From 2022 to 2025, he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 20.7% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 41.7% ground ball rate.
Even that has been undercut by some injury concerns in recent months. He finished 2025 on the injured list due to elbow inflammation and has started this year on the IL as well, again due to elbow inflammation. The issue doesn’t appear to be major and he could be back with the Jays in the near future. He would have to come back healthy and pitch really well in the next few months for this opt-out to even be a consideration.
- Bo Bichette (29): can opt out of remaining two years, $84MM, taking a $5MM buyout
Bichette’s recent trip to the open market was an interesting case. He wasn’t the first notable free agent to settle for a short-term deal, but we do know that he could have taken a more traditional long-term pact. The Phillies reportedly offered him a seven-year deal worth around $200MM. That was pretty close to the eight-year, $208MM deal that MLBTR predicted at the beginning of the offseason.
Instead, Bichette went another way. The Mets offered a much higher average annual value on a short-term deal with opt-outs after each season. Bichette can collect $42MM from the Mets for his age-28 season. If he decides to return to free agency, he can take a $5MM buyout on his way out the door, going into his age-29 season.
He would be walking away from a big salary but another $200MM deal might be out there for him if he has another typical Bichette season. Perhaps he would look to lock that in but we have already seen him opt for the bigger salary once. Maybe he would do so again. On the other hand, it’s theoretically possible he can garner better long-term offers this coming offseason. Last time, he had question marks due to his knee injury and uncertain future position. This time, it’s possible he’ll be healthy and have some proof of concept as a third baseman.
Bichette will need to turn things around to even make this a discussion, as he’s off to a .228/.262/.263 start as a Met, but that’s in a small sample size of 61 plate appearances. He has lots of time to heat up.
- Corbin Burnes (32): can opt out of remaining four years and $140MM ($44MM deferred)
Burnes was a free agent after the 2024 season and few expected him to land in Arizona, but the Diamondbacks signed him to a six-year, $210MM deal, with $64MM deferred. The deal gave Burnes the chance to opt out after two seasons, which would be his age-30 and age-31 seasons.
The deal has not worked out as hoped so far. Burnes did give the club 11 good starts last year, posting a 2.66 ERA, but then required Tommy John surgery in June. He will be on the shelf for at least half of the 2026 season, if not more.
It is theoretically possible for Burnes to beat the remaining money on his deal. Blake Snell was going into his age-32 season in 2025 when the Dodgers gave him a five-year deal worth $182MM. A couple of years prior, Jacob deGrom did better at an even older age. He was going into his age-35 season when he got a five-year, $185MM deal from the Rangers.
For Burnes to make this a conversation, he’ll probably need to come back and shove for at least a few weeks. One or two starts in September won’t do it. It’s also worth considering that Burnes seemingly turned down larger offers from other clubs because he and his family live in Scottsdale. Even if he thinks there’s a chance of slightly more money out there, he might be happy where he is.
- Kyle Freeland (34) – $17MM player option for 2027 if 170 innings pitched in 2026
Freeland and the Rockies signed a five-year, $64.5MM extension back in April of 2022. The deal runs through 2026 but Freeland can unlock a $17MM player option by getting to 170 innings pitched this year. He hasn’t done that in a while, with 2022 being the last time he hit that mark. Even a minor injury that puts Freeland on the IL for a few weeks would quickly take this off the table.
Presumably, the Rockies don’t want him to trigger this. The deal was signed under the previous front office regime. Even at the time, it was a bit of a head-scratcher. Since it has been signed Freeland’s ERA has mostly been hovering around 5.00. That’s not so bad for a pitcher who plays his home games at Coors Field but the Rockies are now rebuilding and don’t seem likely to be in contention next year.
On the other hand, even without a real eye on contention, they have considered it worthwhile to invest in making the rotation more respectable. After losing 119 games last year, the new front office invested almost $20MM to sign Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana and Tomoyuki Sugano. Each of those guys got $8MM or less. Deals like that are probably preferable to spending twice as much on Freeland but it’s not as though that would be back breaking. Freeland is making $16MM this year, so it would be a modest raise.
- Ryan Helsley (32) – $14MM player option
Helsley became a free agent after last year and a pillow deal seemed likely. He had been so dominant at his best but was coming off a poor platform. From 2022 to 2024, he posted a 1.83 ERA with a 34.6% strikeout rate. But in 2025, his ERA jumped up to 4.50. It was an even worse 7.20 for the Mets, who had acquired him from the Cardinals at the deadline. He only struck out 23.2% of batters faced after the deal. There was some talk that he may have been tipping his pitches, as his stuff seemed the same.
The Orioles gave him a two-year, $28MM deal, with even $14MM salaries in each season. Ideally, Helsley would return to form. That would give the O’s a lock-down closer without a lengthy commitment, while Helsley could return to free agency and get a bigger payday.
The early results are mixed. Helsley has thrown 4 1/3 innings for the O’s. His 30.4% strikeout rate is a nice uptick but he has also walked 17.4% of batters faced in that small sample. He still has lots of time but the sooner he locks in, the more it will help him in the coming offseason.
- Clay Holmes (34) – $12MM player option
Holmes spent most of his career as a reliever until he hit free agency, when he drew interest as a starter. The Mets gave him a three-year, $38MM deal and stretched him out. That deal contained an opt-out after two years. That would give Holmes a chance to return to free agency with some proof of concept as a starter, while the Mets would hope to at least get a couple of decent seasons from him.
So far, so good. Holmes is striking out fewer batters as a starter but is still getting plenty of ground balls, leading to good results on the whole. He has thrown 178 1/3 innings as a Met with a 3.38 ERA. His 18.2% strikeout rate is well below his work as a reliever, when he was usually above 25%, but Holmes has induced grounders at a 56.4% clip. He has had a bit of luck from a .273 batting average on balls in play and 75% strand rate, but his 4.09 FIP and 4.39 SIERA suggest he would be a competent back-end starter even with more neutral luck.
A decent starting pitcher can beat $12MM these days, even one in his mid-30s. In the most recent offseason, Nick Martinez got $13MM from the Rays for his age-35 season. Chris Bassitt got $18.5MM from the Orioles for his age-37 season. Merrill Kelly got two years and $40MM from the Diamondbacks starting at age-37. Adrian Houser got two years and $22MM from the Giants beginning with his age-33 campaign, even though he had to settle for a minor league deal a year prior.
Holmes hasn’t been getting as many strikeouts as Kelly or Bassitt but he was comparable to Martinez and Houser last year, with far more grounders than anyone in that group. He’s not an ace but there could be a path to something better than what will be left on his deal.
- Tatsuya Imai (29) – can opt out of remaining two years, $36MM
Imai is just making his major league debut. Coming from Japan at the end of last season, there seemed to be big divisions in how he was viewed by major league teams. Some saw him as a viable mid-rotation guy but others felt his future would be as a leverage reliever.
Some, including us, thought that a team would bet on the upside. MLBTR predicted Imai to land a six-year deal worth $150MM. It seems no club was willing to go to that length, at least not yet. Imai signed a three-year, $54MM deal with the Astros. Opt-outs after each season give him a chance to return to free agency, ideally with a track record of success as a major league starter. He is still relatively young, turning 28 in May, so he should still be able to secure a long-term deal in the future if the results are there.
It has only been two starts but the numbers have been mixed. Imai has a huge 35.1% strikeout rate but a massive 18.9% walk rate. That lack of control is one of the worries with Imai. He got his walk rate down to 7% in his final NPB season but was above 11% from 2019 to 2023. Beating two years and $36MM would be easy if he’s a 29-year-old mid-rotation starter but he will probably stay if he doesn’t quite cement himself or gets pushed to the bullpen.
- Michael King (32) – can opt out of remaining two years, $58MM for a $5MM buyout
Not too long ago, King looked to be on his way to a nine-figure deal. He got a rotation chance with the Yankees late in 2023 and made the most of it. The Padres acquired him and put him into their starting group. King responded with an excellent 2024. He kept that going into 2025 until some injury issues popped up. From August 24th of 2023 until May 18th of 2025, King tossed 267 2/3 innings with a 2.72 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. FanGraphs credits him with 6.7 WAR for that span. The only six pitchers ahead of him on that leaderboard are Tarik Skubal, Chris Sale, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb, Cole Ragans and Dylan Cease.
But King wasn’t able to carry that all the way into free agency. A pinched nerve in his shoulder sent him to the IL for a while. He returned but then quickly went back on the IL with left knee inflammation. He made a few starts in September but wasn’t as dominant as before.
Due to that unimpressive finish, he seemed likely to get a short-term deal with opt-outs, and that indeed came to pass. The Friars brought him back with a three-year deal worth $75MM. It’s a bit backloaded, a team preference since the Padres have been working with some payroll restrictions. King gets a $12MM signing bonus, $4MM annually, but he’ll get all of that even if he opts out. It’s a $5MM salary in the first season and then a $5MM buyout if he walks. Then there’s a $28MM salary in 2027 and $30MM for the final season.
He can easily beat that if he’s back in top form. As mentioned, he was pitching like an ace a year ago and was on a path to something well over $100MM. Even with the injuries, he almost got to nine figures. Through three starts, he has a 3.24 ERA. His 22.1% strikeout rate and 11.8% walk rate aren’t amazing but it’s a very small sample size.
- Yuki Matsui (31) – can opt out of remaining two years, $13.5MM
After years working as a closer in Japan, Matsui came over to North America ahead of the 2024 season. The Padres signed him to a five-year, $28MM deal. That pact allowed him to opt out after three years, as long as he didn’t have a major injury in the first two.
Matsui stayed healthy and has generally given the Padres solid relief work. He made more than 60 appearances and logged more than 60 innings in both 2024 and 2025. On the whole, he has a 3.86 ERA in 126 innings thus far. However, his 11.3% walk rate is high and his 24.6% strikeout rate is only about two ticks above average for a reliever. He hasn’t really been in a leverage role, with just one save and 12 holds. He began the 2026 season on the IL with a groin strain.
Two years and $13.5MM isn’t a massive amount of money in baseball terms but Matsui won’t beat that if he’s a low-leverage reliever. Those types of guys usually get one-year deals worth a few million. He would have another chance to opt out after 2027.
- Emilio Pagán (36) – $10MM player option
Pagán’s profile is well known at this point. He gets a lot of strikeouts but also allows lots of home runs. That leads to big swings in his ERA, depending on how many fly balls are leaving the yard. He had a 4.43 ERA with the Twins in 2022, then dropped that to 2.99 in 2023. The Reds signed him to a two-year deal with an opt-out. His ERA spiked to 4.50 in the first season and he decided to stay. He then had a 2.88 ERA in 2025.
He returned to free agency and the Reds re-signed him to basically the same deal as before. The first was $16MM over two years. The second deal gave him a slight bump to $20MM. Pagán has already allowed two home runs through 7 1/3 innings this year, leading to a 6.14 ERA. This one literally depends on which way the winds will be blowing this summer.
- Wandy Peralta (35) – $4.45MM player option
Peralta got a four-year, $16.5MM deal from the Padres going into 2024, with the final three seasons all being player options. That was a surprise at the time but the Friars like deals like this, seemingly because of their financial situation. The extra years lower the average annual value and therefore the hit to the competitive balance tax. If the player has a good season and opts out, that’s a loss to the roster but the Padres get him off the books.
With Peralta, he has mostly been a ground ball specialist in his career, getting opponents to pound the ball into the dirt at a 53.8% clip. His 19.1% strikeout rate is below average but he’s still been able to have some good seasons. His first two campaigns in San Diego were fine but weren’t enough for him to trigger either of his first two opt-out chances. He had a 3.99 ERA in 2024 and a 3.14 ERA last year. He has a 3.60 ERA in the early going in 2026.
$4.45MM isn’t a ton of money but veteran relievers can sometimes get squeezed. Andrew Chafin keeps having to settle for minor league deals, for instance. Peralta should probably just stick with San Diego for 2027 unless he has a surprisingly dominant season.
- Nick Pivetta (34) – can opt out of remaining two years and $32MM
The Padres signed Pivetta to a four-year, $55MM deal ahead of the 2025 season. Due to San Diego’s aforementioned payroll crunch, they backloaded the money. Pivetta got a $3MM signing bonus and $1MM salary in 2025. He is making $19MM this year, followed by two player options worth $14MM and $18MM. The 2027 option becomes a club option if Pivetta misses 130 days for a major injury.
The first season of the deal was the best of Pivetta’s career. He took the ball 31 times and posted a 2.87 ERA, though that may have been a bit fluky. His strikeout and walk rates held fairly steady compared to prior seasons. He went into 2025 with a 15.5% home run to fly ball rate but only 9.7% of his fly balls went over the fence last year. If his home run rates revert back to previous levels, his ERA would likely jump back to his usual range of the low 4.00s.
Two years and $32MM is beatable as a decent 34-year-old. Sonny Gray and Nathan Eovaldi both got three-year deals worth $75MM in recent years. Eovaldi was actually one year older, going into his age-35 campaign. Bassitt got three years and $63MM from the Blue Jays a few years back. Yusei Kikuchi got the same deal from the Angels. As previously mentioned, Kelly got $40MM over two years going into his age-37 season.
- Luis Severino (33) – $22MM player option
Severino signed a three-year, $67MM deal with the Athletics ahead of 2025. The A’s were desperate for pitching. Luring big leaguers there was going to be tough since they were going to be playing in a minor league park from 2025 to 2027. They also needed to spend a bit more to avoid putting their status as a revenue sharing recipient at risk. The Severino deal surpassed expectations and the industry consensus is that the A’s realized they had to overpay someone.
Though Severino accepted that job and has 67 million reasons to feel good about it, he also has a few reasons to feel annoyed and went public with those. It’s possible he’s eager to move on and maybe the opt-out was put into the contract so that he would have the ability to do so.
Last year’s results weren’t amazing, as he posted a 4.54 ERA. The minor league park played as hitter-friendly and may have hurt him, as he had a 6.01 ERA there compared to a 3.02 ERA on the road. However, that road ERA was helped by a tiny .249 BABIP. He only struck out 17% of batters faced in away games, so it’s not as though he was dominating. His 4.34 home FIP and 3.87 road FIP were much closer than the ERA splits.
Unless he really dominates in 2026, sticking with the A’s may be best financial decision. In the most recent offseason, decent starters got less than the $22MM Severino would be turning down. Zac Gallen got $22.025MM but with deferrals that knocked the net present value below $19MM. As mentioned, Houser got $22MM on a two-year deal. Steven Matz got $15MM over two. Bassitt got $18.5MM, Martinez got $13MM and Dustin May got $12.5MM via one-year deals. His 2026 results will play a role but his desire to get out of that minor league park may also be a factor.
Photo courtesy of D. Ross Cameron, Imagn Images
Poll: Will Munetaka Murakami Or Tatsuya Imai Have The Better Rookie Year?
All around the baseball world, the offseason started with a great deal of hype for the two top talents coming over from Japan to play in MLB: slugger Munetaka Murakami and starter Tatsuya Imai. Both players seemed likely to follow in the footsteps of other recent stars to make the jump from NPB to the majors, including Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Seiya Suzuki, and be among the most coveted free agents on the market. Things did not pan out that way, however, as both players found surprisingly soft markets and wound up taking short-term deals with the hope of returning to the open market after establishing themselves as quality big leaguers.
As they prepare for their respective rookie seasons, Murakami as a member of the White Sox and Imai with the Astros, who is better positioned to do just that? When looking at the contracts the pair got, it’s easy to argue that Imai’s more lucrative deal indicates a greater level of confidence in his ability to succeed. He landed a three-year, $54MM contract with Houston back in January that provides him the opportunity to opt out after either the 2026 or ’27 season. That’s an extra year and $20MM relative to Murakami’s deal in Chicago, not to mention that Murakami doesn’t have an opt-out clause in his deal.
It’s easy to see why teams would’ve had a bit more confidence in Imai than Murakami. Murakami comes with multiple unique questions, including whether his defense will hold up in the majors at either first or third base and whether there’s room for improvement on his extremely low contact rates from his time overseas. Imai doesn’t really come with comparable concerns; his mid-90s velocity and four-pitch mix are strong bets to play in the majors in terms of floor, leaving the Astros less likely to come up completely empty on their investment than the White Sox.
What Murakami lacks in terms of floor, however, it can be argued that he makes up for with exceptional upside. Murakami’s contact rates might be among the lowest in the majors if translated over, but players like Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Kurtz are among the most productive hitters in the entire sport despite high strikeout rates and a proclivity for racking up whiffs. It’s easy to see why Murakami’s sensational exit velocities could allow him to compare to those elite sluggers, particularly given that he only just celebrated his 26th birthday.
It’s fair to wonder if Imai has that sort of elite upside to offer. While his velocity is impressive, scouts have suggested that his fastball lacks the movement necessary to be a high-end pitch. That in conjunction with the control issues he’s flashed at various points in his MLB career might cap his ceiling at something closer to the middle of a big league rotation. Murakami, by contrast, could find himself battling with the likes of Judge and Cal Raleigh at the top of the home run leaderboards if he manages to make enough contact to be productive and continues to grow as a player.
If Murakami breaks out the way some both in Japan and the United States have believed he’s capable of doing, it’s hard to imagine Imai being able to hold a candle to that production no matter how close to his own ceiling he gets. With that said, it could be difficult for either to make much noise in Rookie of the Year conversations. The AL figures to feature a stacked class including players like Kevin McGonigle, Samuel Basallo, Dylan Beavers, Trey Yesavage, and Carter Jensen. Even if Murakami or Imai outproduces those players, their status as foreign professionals already in their mid-20s could still hurt them in Rookie of the Year voting, especially against younger players like McGonigle and Basallo.
How to MLBTR readers view the pair headed into their rookie seasons? Who will have the more productive year? Will either one manage to force themselves into conversations for the AL Rookie of the Year award? Have your say in the polls below:
Who will have the better 2026 season?
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Tatsuya Imai 51% (557)
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Munetaka Murakami 49% (538)
Total votes: 1,095
Will Murakami and/or Imai receive Rookie of the Year votes?
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Both will receive Rookie of the Year votes. 57% (641)
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Neither will receive Rookie of the Year votes. 17% (193)
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Only Imai will receive Rookie of the Year votes. 16% (176)
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Only Murakami will receive Rookie of the Year votes. 10% (116)
Total votes: 1,126
Latest On Yankees’ Pitching Search
The Yankees were known to be one of the teams talking with the Marlins about a possible Edward Cabrera trade, but with Cabrera now in a Cubs uniform, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman reports that the Bronx Bombers are looking elsewhere for rotation help. The NY Post’s Jon Heyman reiterates that the Yankees continue to have trade interest in the Brewers’ Freddy Peralta and the Nationals’ MacKenzie Gore, and the chances of a Tarik Skubal trade with the Tigers seems remote due to Detroit’s huge asking price.
As per offseason norms, the Yankees have been routinely connected to several major players on the free agent and trade markets, though the club has yet to swing a big transaction. New York did bolster its pitching depth by re-signing Ryan Yarbrough and Paul Blackburn, but those aren’t the types of arms that would provide the certainty or the upside of a true front-of-the-rotation arm.
Sherman outlines the situation facing the Yankees’ rotation, as technically the team has enough starters between Max Fried, Luis Gil, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, and Yarbrough to cover innings until Carlos Rodon is back from elbow surgery (in late April or early May), and Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt are back from Tommy John surgery. Of course, any injuries to the healthy pitchers or setbacks for the injured pitchers could throw this entire plan awry, and Schmidt’s availability for any of the 2026 season isn’t a sure thing since he underwent his TJ procedure last July.
Bringing in not just a depth starter, but a pitcher that could conceivably start a playoff game would naturally be a nice boost to the rotation picture. Such an addition provides cover against not just injuries, but (as Sherman notes) the possibility that Schlittler might struggle in his first full Major League season, or that Fried might feel some wear after a career-high 195 1/3 innings pitched in 2025.
Interestingly, almost all of the starting pitchers linked to the Yankees on the hot stove this offseason have been trade targets, rather than free agents. Given how Cody Bellinger seemingly remains New York’s top overall priority, it would seem like the Yankees are allocating their free agent dollars in that direction….or perhaps towards another top-tier option like Bo Bichette if a deal can’t be reached with Bellinger.
While the Yankees were reportedly interested in Tatsuya Imai earlier this winter, Heyman writes that the team was looking at Imai more as a reliever than as a starting pitcher. As such, the Yankees didn’t make Imai an offer, since presumably the bidding got beyond New York’s comfort range for a relief pitcher. Imai’s market ended up being narrower than initially thought, and the righty ended up signing with the Astros on a three-year, $54MM deal that includes opt-outs after each of the first two seasons.
Heyman also provides some details on the Cabrera negotiations, as such New York prospects as right-hander Ben Hess and outfielder Dillon Lewis were mentioned, along with “a third lower-level prospect.” It isn’t specified if these three players were all included in one offer to Miami, but the Marlins instead opted for the Cubs’ three-prospect mix of Owen Caissie, Cristian Hernandez and Edgardo De Leon. The highly-regarded Caissie is the highest-ranked prospect of the group and he has already made his MLB debut, so he could be in Miami’s outfield as soon as Opening Day. It is easy to see why the hitting-needy Marlins might’ve preferred Chicago’s offer, especially since the Yankees weren’t willing to include their own top hitting prospect in George Lombard Jr.
In what might be an interesting tidbit to file away for any future Yankees/Marlins trade talks, Heyman writes that “Miami loves the super talented Lewis,” a 13th-round pick in the 2024 draft who finished his first full season of pro ball at high-A Hudson Valley. Baseball America ranks Lewis as the eighth-best prospect in New York’s farm system, with Hess clocking in fifth place.
MLBTR Podcast: Contracts For Imai And Okamoto, And Thoughts On The Pirates And Giants
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Astros signing Tatsuya Imai (3:15)
- The Blue Jays signing Kazuma Okamoto (21:10)
- The Pirates agreeing to a deal with Ryan O’Hearn but missing on Okamoto (37:55)
- The Giants signing Adrian Houser and Tyler Mahle and maybe being content with their rotation (54:30)
Check out our past episodes!
- Three-Way Trade, Murakami’s Short-Term Deal, And Willson Contreras To Boston – listen here
- The Mets Sign Jorge Polanco, And The Braves, Blue Jays And Royals Make Moves – listen here
- Winter Meetings Recap – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images
Astros Sign Tatsuya Imai
The Astros officially announced the signing of right-hander Tatsuya Imai to a three-year contract that allows him to opt out after each of the first two seasons. It’s reportedly a $54MM guarantee for the NPB star, who’ll collect a $2MM signing bonus and $16MM salary next year. He’s owed respective $18MM salaries between 2027-28. Imai, a client of the Boras Corporation, would reportedly escalate his 2027 salary by $2MM apiece at reaching 80, 90 and 100 innings next year. His ’28 salary would also climb by $1MM at each of those thresholds, meaning the total value can jump another $9MM.
Meanwhile, the Lions will receive a posting fee based on Imai’s $54MM guarantee. The current system for international postings gives the original club 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of anything over $50MM. That works out to $9.975MM, so the Astros are on the hook for just under $64MM between the contract’s guaranteed money and the posting fee. If Imai opts out next season, Houston will have committed $27.975MM for one year of his services. The Astros would also owe a 15% posting fee to the Lions on any escalators that Imai unlocks if he doesn’t opt out.
Imai was one of the top starters available in free agency and coming off a career-best 1.92 ERA season with the Saitama Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. It was reported several days ago that he was meeting with teams in-person in advance of his January 2 signing deadline. The Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Phillies, and Orioles were among the clubs interested in signing him, so the Astros are a bit of a surprise destination.
We at MLBTR ranked Imai No. 7 on our Top 50 Free Agents list and projected him for a six-year, $150MM contract. This deal with Houston comes in at half the length of that projection, with around a third of the guaranteed money. It appeared that Imai had other offers on the table for longer terms but lower AAVs (link via Mark Feinsand of MLB.com). The opt-outs in his deal with Houston allow him to try for a bigger contract in future offseasons if he can prove himself in MLB.
Imai is 27 years old (28 in May) and has pitched to a 3.15 ERA in 963 2/3 career NPB innings. He debuted in 2018 at age 20 and made 16 appearances (15 starts), but struggled with a 4.97 ERA. Those early struggles continued from 2019-20. In the pandemic season, Imai had a 6.13 ERA in 61 2/3 innings and walked more batters than he struck out, which resulted in him temporarily being moved to the bullpen. He rebounded in 2021, posting a 3.30 ERA in 158 1/3 innings with an improved strikeout rate, and he has stuck as a starting pitcher ever since.
That kicked off a run of dominance from 2022-25. After posting a 2.41 ERA in nine starts with the Lions in 2022, Imai followed up with a 2.30 ERA and a 24.4% strikeout rate in 133 innings in 2023. While he did walk 11.4% of hitters that year, his strikeout and walk numbers improved year over year from 2023-25. This year, he struck out 27.8% of hitters (highest among qualified NPB starters) and walked just 7.0%. His 20.7% K-BB rate was third-best in that league. Imai also did very well at keeping the ball in the yard, allowing just six home runs all season (0.33 HR/9) and inducing groundballs 48.3% of the time. Overall, he enters the majors with a higher ceiling and much-improved control compared to his early career.
In terms of stuff, Imai profiles as a mid-rotation starter in the majors. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and can reach 99 mph, and he also throws a slider, splitter, and changeup. His excellent performance from 2022-25 made him an attractive target in free agency, although some evaluators were concerned about his secondary stuff and past struggles with control. It seemed that industry opinion was mixed on whether he could succeed as a big-league starter, which resulted in the lower-than-expected guarantee.
At the time of his posting, a $150MM deal seemed like a real possibility. These days, teams value youth and upside and are willing to pay a premium to get it. Recent offseasons have seen players like Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sign for over a decade and at least $500MM in guaranteed money. Among Asian players, right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto and outfielder Jung Hoo Lee came to the majors after their age-24 seasons and earned $100M+ deals. Imai is several years older than Yamamoto was when he signed and has a shorter track record as a front-of-the-rotation arm. While he was never going to match Yamamoto’s deal, Imai’s year-over-year improvement and relative youth were enough for the Astros to want him in their rotation.
Houston’s interest was not widely known, though it makes sense that they wanted another starting pitcher. Longtime ace Framber Valdez is currently a free agent. The team has had some discussions with Valdez’s camp, though the expectation is that he will sign elsewhere on a pricier contract. Hunter Brown was phenomenal in 2025, totaling 185 1/3 innings with a 2.43 ERA. That figure was third-best among qualified starters, trailing only Cy Young winners Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal. He also posted an 85th-percentile strikeout rate and a 77th-percentile groundball rate. Altogether, he was worth 4.6 fWAR and finished third in AL Cy Young voting. He’ll return as the staff ace in 2026.
Behind Brown, the rotation looks shaky. Cristian Javier currently projects as the No. 2 starter. He owns a 3.66 ERA in 538 career innings, but he pitched just 71 2/3 innings from 2024-25 due to Tommy John surgery. In just 37 innings this year, Javier had a 4.62 ERA with a 21.7% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate. He is under contract through 2027. Meanwhile, Lance McCullers Jr. has had his own injury troubles, pitching just 103 innings in the past four years and missing 2023-24 entirely. Even if he performs well in 2026, the team will monitor his workload carefully. The recently-acquired Mike Burrows will play some role. He had a 3.94 ERA in 96 innings this year with an impressive 16.4% K-BB rate, though his overall track record is fairly minimal.
The addition of Imai gives the Astros a durable No. 2 or 3 starter at an affordable rate. It remains to be seen how his strikeout and groundball potential will translate against major-league hitting, though the club is surely hoping he can maintain his performance from Japan. The signing brings the Astros’ projected payroll to $242MM, according to RosterResource. The club was a second-time luxury tax payor this year and is hoping to avoid paying it for a third time. The first luxury tax threshold for 2026 is $244MM, so the club will likely need to shed payroll if it wants to add to other areas of the roster.
With Imai now off the board, any clubs in need of a starter will need to look elsewhere. Dylan Cease was the top free agent pitcher entering the offseason and has since signed with the Blue Jays. Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Zac Gallen, Chris Bassitt, and Lucas Giolito are still available in free agency. Valdez and Suarez are front-of-the-rotation options, while Gallen, Bassitt and Giolito are cheaper, mid-rotation arms.
Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Astros and Imai had agreed to a deal. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers was first on the three-year term with opt-outs after the first two seasons. Heyman reported the $54MM guarantee and $9MM in escalators at 80-100 innings, while Ronald Blum of The Associated Press was first on the signing bonus and specific escalator breakdown.
Cubs Notes: Imai, Okamoto
Tatsuya Imai came off the board this afternoon. He agreed to terms with the Astros on a three-year, $54MM guarantee with opt-outs after the first two seasons. It was both a surprise landing spot and contract, as the NPB right-hander had generally been expected to pull a nine-figure deal that probably would have priced him out of Houston.
The Cubs were among the teams most commonly speculated as a fit for Imai over his 45-day posting window. Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic wrote last month that Chicago was involved but reluctant to make a long-term commitment that valued him as a top-of-the-rotation arm. The rest of the market evidently shared that trepidation.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes that the Cubs appear to have been the top competition to Houston by the end of the signing period. Both Feinsand and Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggest that neither the Yankees nor Mets were heavily involved. The Yankees may be more focused on the lineup — they reportedly have an offer out to Cody Bellinger — while previous reporting has indicated the Mets aren’t eager to make a long-term investment in a free agent starter. Imai apparently was not going to be an exception, as Feinsand writes that the Mets weren’t convinced he’d be a top-of-the-rotation starter.
An upper mid-rotation starter has been the Cubs’ biggest need all offseason. They’ve yet to make any moves in the rotation aside from declining their option on and then retaining Shota Imanaga via the qualifying offer. They’re still lacking a high-end complement to Cade Horton at the top of the staff, at least until Justin Steele returns from April’s elbow surgery.
Imanaga had a terrible final few weeks as his home run rate spiked. Matthew Boyd was excellent in the first half but appeared to wear down as the season went along. His 179 2/3 innings pitched were 101 more than he’d thrown in any MLB season since 2019. Boyd took a 2.34 earned run average into the All-Star Break but allowed a 4.63 mark over his final 12 appearances. His strikeout rate dropped more than four percentage points in the second half. He’s headed into his age-35 season. Jameson Taillon, Colin Rea and Javier Assad profile as back-end or swing options.
The Cubs could still pursue any of Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez or Zac Gallen if they want to add a starter via free agency. Teams have set significant asking prices in talks involving starting pitching, though the likes of MacKenzie Gore or Kris Bubic remain trade candidates.
RosterResource calculates Chicago’s luxury tax projection around $210MM. That leaves them almost $35MM below the base threshold and $21MM shy of their season-ending mark from 2025. They should have some payroll flexibility. If they don’t like the value on any available starting pitchers, they could potentially turn their attention to the offense as a way to replace some of the production lost from Kyle Tucker (whom they’re not expected to re-sign).
The Cubs have been loosely linked to third basemen, in particular. Reports have tied them to Alex Bregman and Eugenio Suárez, though president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer gave a firm vote of confidence to in-house third baseman Matt Shaw. This evening, Heyman listed the Cubs among a number of teams that have shown some interest in NPB star Kazuma Okamoto. The right-handed hitting corner infielder has until Sunday afternoon to sign.
Okamoto has been also been tied to the Padres, Pirates, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Angels this offseason. Most of those teams make more sense as landing spots than the Cubs, who have Shaw and Michael Busch at the corners. Plugging Okamoto in at designated hitter would block the path to at-bats for young hitters Moisés Ballesteros and Owen Caissie. Okamoto could take at-bats against lefty pitching from Busch but would have a cleaner path to everyday playing time with a team like Pittsburgh (at third base) or San Diego (at first base).