The Royals entered the offseason in pursuit of two outfielders — ideally adding one apiece via free agency and trade. They accomplished that last week, signing Lane Thomas to a $5.25MM deal and bringing in Isaac Collins in a trade with Milwaukee.
Collins played mostly left field for the Brewers. He’s loosely penciled in there for now, while Thomas provides a right-handed hitting complement to Kyle Isbel and Jac Caglianone in center and right field, respectively. It’s better than it was at season’s end but still not a great group on paper. Thomas is coming off an injury-riddled season. Caglianone struggled mightily in his first 62 MLB games and could benefit from more time at Triple-A. Isbel is a glove-only center fielder, while Collins’ breakout season came as a 27-year-old rookie.
Unsurprisingly, the Royals haven’t closed the door on the possibility of adding another outfielder. Collins has plenty of minor league infield experience — mostly at second with a handful of starts at third base as well. President of baseball operations J.J. Picollo indicated that while the Royals expect him to play mostly outfield, he has enough defensive versatility for the front office to keep their options open (link via Anne Rogers of MLB.com).
The switch-hitting Collins has a very patient approach. Kansas City ranked 22nd in on-base percentage (.309), and only the Rockies had a lower walk rate than their 7.2% clip. Collins provides a different skillet and generally raises the lineup’s floor, but his limited power means he doesn’t have a huge ceiling as an everyday left fielder. The Royals aren’t going to be in the market for a star outfielder in free agency, yet they’re kicking the tires on a more impactful trade possibility.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the Royals could still be a factor for Jarren Duran. Rosenthal suggests that Kansas City has balked at putting star southpaw Cole Ragans in a Duran trade. Whether the Red Sox would insist on Ragans’ inclusion isn’t known, as The Athletic report indicates that Boston executives view the teams’ talks to date as preliminary.
That said, it’s clear the Red Sox are putting a lofty price on their top outfielders. Tim Healey of The Boston Globe writes that chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is telling interested teams that the Sox don’t feel any pressure to trade an outfielder. They’ve taken calls on Duran and Wilyer Abreu at least dating back to the summer. Between Abreu, Duran and Roman Anthony, they have three above-average to star caliber left-handed hitting outfielders. (Anthony signed an eight-year extension in August and certainly isn’t getting traded.) Ceddanne Rafaela hits from the right side and has the ability to play the infield, but much of his value comes from his elite center field defense.
Keeping all four players limits the Sox’s flexibility a bit. They can find at-bats for them all by rotating them through the designated hitter role and getting Rafaela occasional infield work. Boston has considered swapping one of Duran or Abreu for controllable starting pitching, though they’re less motivated to do so after acquiring Sonny Gray.
The Royals have been on the opposite end. Picollo said a few weeks ago that they were open to trading a starter for outfield help. He essentially took Ragans out of that mix, though. The 28-year-old lefty finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting two seasons ago. He missed a good chunk of ’25 battling a rotator cuff strain. He’s signed for a combined $12MM over the next two years and will be eligible for arbitration in 2028. He’s a potential ace whom the Royals control for three seasons at what’d likely be no more than $25MM in total.
“We’re in a really good spot (with rotation depth), so if the right trade comes along, and it costs us a starting pitcher, we have to look at it,” Picollo told Rogers at the Winter Meetings. “It’s just not going to be Cole. … We have to ask ourselves: Is this his max value right now? Probably not. If Cole pitches like he did in ‘24, who knows what his value is going to be? We just think right now, three years of control on a really good starting pitcher, it would have to be something crazy, something that’s like, ‘How can we pass this up?'”
Kansas City has gotten hits on controllable arms like Noah Cameron, Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek. Lefty Kris Bubic might be their likeliest rotation trade candidate, but he suffered a season-ending rotator cuff injury in July and is headed into his final arbitration year. No one from that group is valuable enough to headline a trade for Duran, who is coming off his third straight well above-average season. Duran is set for a $7.7MM salary and is under arbitration control through 2028.
Even if the sides can’t line up value on Duran, the Royals will evaluate other outfield possibilities. They’re also known to be searching for left-handed relief. That was more of a luxury buy around the Winter Meetings but takes on added importance after they traded Angel Zerpa to the Brewers for Collins and righty reliever Nick Mears.
Kansas City is down to Daniel Lynch IV and swingman Bailey Falter as lefty relievers on the 40-man roster. Lynch managed a 3.06 earned run average over 67 2/3 innings but did so with a well below-average 15.6% strikeout rate. There are a few one-year deal candidates available in free agency (e.g. Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar, Caleb Ferguson, Danny Coulombe). They could also explore the trade market, with St. Louis’ JoJo Romero known to be available as he enters his final year of arbitration.
Boston values Duran as Willie Mays and KC values Ragans as Randy Johnson…Both have to come to their senses….
We are not trading Cole Ragans. Maybe Kris bubic but not Ragans
Then you’re likely not getting two years of Duran who has become a true star (not superstar) between his improved defense, speed and more power than I anticipated. The only reason he’s available is in my opinion because of the controlled years of Abreu. No one considers how difficult RF is at Fenway. Finding a good hitting RFer who can play it is not easy to find.
Dewey it’s three years of Duran unless you are assuming a lost 2027 season he’s not a free agent until 2029.
Ragans and Duran have the same amount of control.
Thanks Bruin. I was wrong but that even makes him more valuable. Very hard to evaluate a quality pitcher for a quality every day player but with the comments being all over the place, it’s probably a fair one for one deal. Both sides just do it!
I’m not interested in Duran
if I’m KC, and you want Ragans, I’ll pass. keep Duran and kill his value by playing him part time to get everyone at bats. but you can’t just plug another Cy Young capable starting pitcher in the 1 hole.
Kris Bubic isn’t close to getting you Duran. I see no path for Duran to KC without Ragans. Maybe Boston has to add a kicker like Kutter Crawford but they aren’t adding Early or Tolle that’s crazy.
Wilyer Abreu for Kolek and Bergert.
Not being mean but why would Boston do that. They have so many arms that are back end arms probably better than Kolek and Bergeret. If they are going to move Abreu it’s in a pacakage for an arm that can pitch behind Crochet to start the season. Ragans would be that guy but he comes with injury concerns. Abreu and Duran are very valuable and they don’t need any more middle to back of the rotation arms. Imo they should be looking to resign Bregman and add another bat after moving salary and not worrying about pitching as much. The infield is much more concerning to me.
Well said Bruin. Boston does also need a replacement for Ref if he goes elsewhere.
That is not going to happen. They would only MAYBE give up Abreu for Ragans.
Looks like Kristian Campbell might be the replacement for Refsnyder. All the reports that I’ve read recently have said that they’re planning on moving Campbell to the outfield full time. He’ll probably do better in the outfield than he did in the infield, because he was awful at 2B. I think he’ll be their fourth outfielder this season, and will get a lot of playing time, considering their starting three outfielders all bat left handed.
You know the Royals’s are not a farm system for people to pluck players from you take those pitchers. What about the rest of the rotation? Are you going to take everybody else?
Kristian Campbell more likely a trade chip because of his lack of position (wasn’t he going to try out first base?) Anyway I thought there was this glut of outfielders…so Campbell seems the odd man out, especially lacking the defensive home. Similar to Mariners situation with Harry Ford in a way; the club just couldn’t utilize him optimally at this point in time. Has more value to other clubs.
Great keep him and waste a year of his value. You’re not getting Ragans lol
Cole Ragans IMO is a tier above Duran.
Looking how batters have fared versus Ragans at home and away.
Home: .231/.299/.380
Away: .206/.290/.314
Jarren Duran’s splits:
Home: .278/.344/.475
Away: .256/.312/.430
Ragans looks like a stud wherever he plays and it’s encouraging he’s even better away from home. Whereas Durran looks to be playing in an environment well suited for his game with his road numbers lacking in impact.
If I was the Royals I wouldn’t make that trade 1 for 1.
Apples and Oranges. Hard to say. Duran is a guy that the Royals need, might not hit as many homers in KC but probably hits 20 plus triples. It would be a need for need kind of trade. Witt and Duran back to back look out they might run wild on the bases. To be perfectly honest if the Red Sox can’t get their number 2 for a Duran led package don’t trade him he’s dynamic and at times a game changer with his hustle and the Red Sox don’t have to trade him.
Are there Boston hitters who hit better on the road? Fenway has always seemed.like Coors light to me.
The Sox are overvaluing Duran, don’t get me wrong, but the kid put up 13.4 bWAR these past two seasons. He’s under team control for multiple seasons for cheap still.
He is still very valuable. A straight 1-1 swap for a top tier pitcher – like Araez for Lopez – should be more than fair for both teams involved.
I don’t think that’s true. Royals arguably get worse by trading Ragans and the Sox aren’t going to deal a guy who registered as high as a 8.6 WAR in the last 2 years and was amazing at home last season and had a strong 2nd half for anything less.
I think more likely this will be a multi part deal with the Sox adding an arm and the Royals adding a prospect on top if its to come together. I still think less than 5% chance the Sox don’t enter spring training with all 4 outfielders. They have options.
Royals lineup would be dynamic with Duran
Red Sox seem more likely to deal Rafaela.
He’s coming off a 4.7 war season, gold glove and is signed to 7 more years at a total guarantee just over $43 mil. Garcia just got a $10 mil guaranteed so I doubt Boston is inclined to trade Rafaela unless he’s a major piece in a much larger deal.
Boston would be idiotic to trade Rafaela. Cheap. Gold Glove (future platinum glove winner if they stop jerking him around to 2B) winner. Having his defense in CF is huge, even if his bat doesn’t come along.
An outfield of Anthony , Rafaela, and Abreu would be the best in the league.
Zero chance of Rafy moving unless it’s for someone like Ragans too. He improves the entire rotation as does Abreu when healthy and Anthony is no schlub either. Duran is the odd man out but that doesn’t mean they have to move him. Especially with Abreus injury history.
What’s your source for that?
Harder would be the perfect fit in KC.
Duran or even Duran with a secondary prospect for Ragans seems like common sense. Both are being stupid and stubborn. The Royals have limited leverage because there are still starters out there as FAs and others on the trade market.
The Red Sox should target a Ryan or Gore but they need to be willing to put Early in the package. You only put Tolle and a lot more in a package for someone like Skubal, Skenes, etc…. The problem three is the Red Sox are gun shy at the big deal and they also need to be willing to make an offer they can’t refuse to avoid free agency.
I would honestly trade Tolle before Early or any of the other pitching prospects. Tolle is a much bigger project than Witherspoon or Early.
I could see Breslow trading Perales before Tolle, but I feel the opposite. Perales actually has secondaries.
If you watched Tolle pitch in the minors you would not say what you are saying. He actually does have the makings of a solid kick change to go with the fastball and slider. He also through a curve and a sweeper but the changeup will be the key. He unleashed some very poor ones but he also unleashed some real nasty kick change with great arm velocity that dropped like a stone. It’s a work in progress but there’s ace potential there imo and remember this was his first season pitching pro and until his only year at TCU he was two way player. He’s come a long way very quickly.
They seem to be exploring it quite a bit. I get that the outfield is vast but honestly, it’s mostly just open space and grass. Nothing much else to explore. You’re not Lewis and Clark.
If the outfield is large enough to accommodate four outfielders it should be allowed as an option, you just then take away the DH. Easy as that. You just call him the 4th outfielder and he just roves. (He can be in motion even starting before the pitcher begins his windup…it’s a way to distract the batter, can be the baseball equivalent of play-action in football.)
@Ignorant Son-of-a-b
I think MLB should consider a D-line and an O-line for MLB. Then you can have the best defenders on a team that can’t hit and the best hitters that can’t field. We’ve already got the data to push for this.
Royals had a chance to sign Yaz but didn’t.
The Braves offered him a better deal. The Royals probably would not have offered him a two-year contract.
So poor Issac Collins will continue to not get opportunity unless some other teammates get injured and go to the IL. So much for his efforts to help a team win 97 games last year. Maybe Omaha will give him playing time.
Mike Elias, give the Royals a call. The Orioles need two SPs, and KC needs an OF bat. They should have some interest in Beavers or Cowser. Or better yet, pay some of O’Neill’s remaining contract and see if they’ll take him.
I doubt the Orioles want to trade Cowser just yet, probably the same with Beavers. Kjerstad maybe, though they would probably have to sell low (i.e. not for Ragans)
I’d agree that Cowser is the least likely to be traded, unless they acquire someone to play CF. Beavers is blocked for 2026 by Ward and O’Neill, at least until O’Neill goes on the IL. Kjerstad at this point has almost no trade value, except as part of a package deal. He’s probably best used as an add-on with either Mayo or Mountcastle.
KC needs a reliable (and durable) impact bat with track record. O’Neill on IL too much-others mentioned they can get a better batter when dangling SP.
No one is taking O’Neil unless the O’s heavily pay down the remaining years.
Per Baseball Trade Values, Ragans’s remaining three years of control have way more surplus value than Duran’s do, such that the Sox would need to add Tolle to the deal to even it up. That’s because BTV seems to be using the fWAR projected 2026 valuation of Duran as a 2.5-3.0 WAR player going forward. That valuation seems quite low to me, given that Duran’s “down” 2025 rated 4.6 bWAR and 3.9 fWAR. At those 2025 valuations Duran for Ragans would be an even deal. Easy to see then why a deal has not come together, given the wide (though to me hard to justify) disparity as to Duran’s value.
Phillies will eat 15 of the $20 million remaining on Nick Castellanos and you won’t even have to give up a good prospect. Come on KC. Take him.
The Red Sox should throw in some young pitching to try to convince the Royals to give up Ragans in a Duran trade. They have more than enough young talent to include with Duran to get a deal done. Part of the reason I didn’t like the Garcia for Oviedo trade was because I thought Garcia could be a good sweetener in a deal for Ragans.
Caglianone struggled mightily … he had an expected average of .241 with 22% Ks and above average HHB rate and a 92 mph average exit velocity.
Do your fking homework before writing an article.
Yea average exit velocity was under 90 in the bigs but was surprised to see only a 22% k rate. He’s not going to hit to a .176 babip that’s crazy.
Cherry-picking here, which is somewhat acceptable for rookies, but in Cags final 99 ABs, he had 5 HRs with a 26/13 K/W. Nothing to write home about, but he is coming along.
I imagine the author meant that Collins has a different skill set, although he may also have a different skillet than others on his new team.
Part of why they traded for him, he means business in the kitchen and not afraid to take a wok
Congrats on this
Much obliged
Ragans for Duran is a pretty fair trade all things considered.
It would be a massive win of a trade for Boston. Ragans is a legitimate ace when fully healthy, with three more years of affordable control. Duran, while definitely a valuable player, has basically started to be pushed out of the picture in Boston. He could DH, but a lot of his value comes from his defense. He’s also not super young anymore, and he has a skillset that often tends to drop off quite a bit after a player’s prime. That being said, he’s still a very good overall player as of now, and moving him back to CF where he seems the most comfortable should return him to being one of the better defensive outfielders in the league.
If they don’t trade Duran, and they can’t move Yoshida, they should release Yoshida.
I agree. At this point, if you can’t find a trade partner for him, just release him. They’d probably have to pay at least 20-25 million to get a team to take the remaining two years of his deal.
If Boston requires Ragans for Duran – Royals please move on. Duran seems like a very good player and no disrespect but not worth a true #1 Starter. There’s a reason they say pitching is the currency of Baseball…not Left Fielders. Sometimes things just don’t line up and better to move on then overpay
I agree with that. Both teams should move on. I love watching Duran play. There is no reason that the Sox cannot keep all 4 guys.
There is no reason they should go without something they need when they have excess sitting on the bench. Maybe there is not a fit with KC but there are 28 other teams to look for a match with.
Skillet!
Duran for Bubic, Carter Jensen, and a low level prospect. Royals still have Blake Mitchell to be the catcher of the future so losing Jensen would be fine.
I’d gladly trade Ragans for Duran, he’s an injury waiting to happen, he’s already had 2 Tommy John’s and he usually exhausted and at 100 pitches in the fifth inning, love the upside, not sure we’ll ever see it
I can’t see a trade happening. A healthy Ragans is worth a good bit more than Duran. And if he is unhealthy, he’ll provide little value over three years.