Munetaka Murakami will make his decision within the next five days. Japan's premier slugger is expected to sign with an MLB team after being posted by the Yakult Swallows. The 45-day process began on November 8, meaning Murakami has until December 22 to put pen to paper.
Murakami's camp has played things very close to the vest. While they've undoubtedly spent the past month speaking with teams, there hasn't been any reporting about which clubs are involved. It's inherently more difficult from the outside to project the market for players without any major league track record. A lot depends on individual teams' scouting evaluations.
That's particularly true in Murakami's case. Scouts are unanimous in praising his monster power potential. The lefty hitter drilled 56 home runs in his age-22 season a few years back. That's an outlier but he has another four seasons with between 31 and 39 longballs. That doesn't include this year, in which oblique injuries limited him to 69 games. Murakami connected on 24 homers while hitting .286/.392/.659 across 263 plate appearances -- which would have put him on a 55-60 homer pace over a full season. His exit velocities are off the charts. There's a chance he's in the Kyle Schwarber or Shohei Ohtani tier in terms of left-handed raw power.
As is often the case, the bigger question is whether he'll make enough contact to be an impact bat in MLB. Murakami has fanned a near-26% rate in his NPB career. That was up to 28.6% this year and closer to 30% in his last full season in 2024. Hitters can thrive while striking out that often -- Schwarber has gone down on strikes at a 28.8% rate over the last four years -- but Murakami's strikeout rate seems likely to climb against big league competition.
The average pitcher quality and velocity is higher in MLB than it is at the NPB level. Should Murakami be expected to strike out more than 30% of the time in the majors? Do teams expect him to punch out more than a third of the time? Scouts could have differing evaluations on Murakami's pure hitting ability.
There's little doubt that the bat needs to drive the profile. Listed at 6'2" and 213 pounds, Murakami isn't viewed as an especially rangy third baseman. He's likely to end up at first base before the end of his contract. Some teams might project him to the position on day one. Others could feel he'd be a passable third baseman in the short term, but his defense isn't likely to improve with age.
Murakami turns 26 in February. He's younger than essentially any top-tier domestic free agent, who'd need to play six full seasons in the big leagues before they can hit the market. This is a chance to add a potential prime-age superstar, but there's also massive downside given the swing-and-miss and defensive questions. It's likely that whatever deal he signs will come with one or more opt-out chances that allow Murakami to get back to free agency a few years from now if he has proven he can hit MLB pitching.
MLBTR predicted an eight-year, $180MM deal in ranking him the offseason's #4 free agent. That's admittedly without a huge amount of confidence given the challenges of projecting this profile. Let's take a look at which teams are best positioned to make this move.
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In this market, I cant see him getting an eight year deal Probably in the 5 or 6 range.
Mets?.
He is a good fit for the Mets, but I doubt they hand out another long-term contract the way Sterns is operating. I could see them trying to secure Okamoto on a 2 or 3 year deal instead and having him play 1B.
Why is he a good fit for the Mets? They have their corner infield pretty well covered. Baty was quietly very good at 3rd last year and they just brought in Polanco for first. They’re not gonna bring in a $100m DH, nor would he likely agree to that.
Polanco should DH and Murakami (or Okamoto) should play 1B.
I don’t think they will ultimately do this though.
Seamaholic – Even if Polanco becomes a GG first baseman (spoiler alert, hes not) he will be gone in two years.
Differently from mlb free agents, you have to look at this as a true investment in the future. Maybe year 1 is a sunk cost. But, here’s a novel idea, work with the guy to become a better fielder, strike out less. Its not unheard of…..
The Mets dont need to go the full Stearns cheap-o value playbook.. If 2026 is going to be some sort of bridge year to the prosperous future you could do worse…….
Polanco has never played 1B, he should be backing up 2B and 3B and DH. Murakami would be your everyday 1B
Imagine the marketing boom too if Murakami becomes a star in NY. Not that they need the money, but it still augments the value of the investment into the player.
Polanco’s almost certainly a better fielder than Murakami, anywhere you put them.
Murakami’s not gonna agree to “work on his game” for a couple years. This dude is a massive superstar over in Japan (he broke the equivalent of Roger Maris’ 61 HR record as a 22 year old) and he’s gonna go for whomever will play him every day, at a position on the field, and give him an opt out in 2-3 years so he can go back on the market.
People thinking Polanco will play in the Field a lot, is way off. He will DH 90% of his playing time. He’s older with declining D and was never a good defensive player anyway. He’s played 1 game at 1B. Anyone thinking he’s the 1B in 2026 needs to ease up on the booze. His contract matches up almost exactly with what Marte was getting. He was signed as the primary DH.
Hitting is what Polanco does best. If he is going to play in the field he is better suited to 2B than 1B where, as you pointed out, he has played 1 game.
Polanco is a notoriously atrocious fielder. Murakami is young and a natural corner guy. Far more likely to succeed defensively at 1B.
Terrible option for Mets.
dugmert – interesting, why terrible?
What If he becomes Hideki Matsui in two years batting behind Lindor and Soto?
In 2 years?.
If you give this guy 200 million he better Matsui from day 1
With Stearns prioritizing D, and recently signing Polanco to be the primary DH, I don’t see Murakami as a fit here. Okamoto is the perfect replacement for Pete. Not the same Power but more consistent hitter and won 2 Gold Gloves in Japan. Offers much better D.
I agree. He’s not getting what some projected because of the concerns with his swing and miss. He might end up being huge, but no MLB team is going to commit eight years and $180MM on a maybe.
Brewers could use a corner infield dude. Why not them?
Mets
If Larry was still with us, the Red Sox would outbid everyone.
Now, unlikely.
Right because they were outbidding everyone when he was here…. Sike
you do realize how many big FAs they signed when Lucchino was there, right?
FPG – the thought never even crossed my mind, there’s no way the Sox are giving him 5, 6, 7, 8 years. No way!
At first i thought the Sox may chase a japanese player because it grows the brand. But now, i think theyre too cheap to invest in the brand……
Sad – Well they are known to give the longterm contracts to players in their 20’s, but they haven’t done it with free agents yet. I wouldn’t rule out the Sox, though it would have to be a massive overpay which will be hard to do if other finalists are big spending teams like the Mets and Yankees. They won’t win a bidding war, that’s for sure. And they won’t get him by just being close to the highest bid, the Red Sox reputation with Japanese players is not good right now.
FPG – their reputation with all free agents is down right now.
WHat a shame too, because we’ve had such great successes with Japanese players over the past three decades
Sad – I dunno, I’m struggling to think of successes. Okajima I guess was a success if you consider his salary, two really good years and one mediocre year and two really bad years.
Dice was a failure taking into consideration his contract.
Sawamura was a failure.
Yoshida thus far hasn’t worked out because of injuries.
Tazawa was alright.
Am I missing anyone else that came directly from Japan?
“Red Sox reputation with Japanese players is not good”
Hey fever I have read this several times in your posts, How do you figure this? All my research says the opposite.
Overall sentiment
Generally positive, with a lot of respect.
Among Japanese players, the Red Sox are often seen as:
A historic, prestigious franchise
An organization that respects Japanese players
A team willing to give real roles, not just bench spots
That reputation matters a lot in Japanese baseball culture.
Most Japanese players see the Red Sox as a respected, high-pressure, high-reward destination. Not everyone wants the spotlight Boston brings — but if a Japanese player signs there, it’s usually viewed back home as a big, legit career step.
Compared to other MLB teams
In Japan, the Red Sox are often viewed more favorably than:
Small-market teams
Teams with little history of Japanese players
They’re usually mentioned in the same “serious destination” tier as the Yankees, Dodgers, and Mariners.
Kogi…. He was awesome…. Nomo wasn’t bad but he went LA first then the Sox
Coop – Koji is an all-time favorite player of mine. He pitched 4 years for Baltimore and Texas before signing with the Sox.
I attended Nomo’s first start with the Sox in Baltimore, great no-no memories!
medic – Despite pursuing numerous Japanese players in free agency the past several years, often making them a top priority, not only did they not even come close to signing any of them but they often weren’t even granted in-person meetings during the team selection process. Flights from NYC to Boston are only about 80 minutes, it’s not like he was thousands of miles away from Boston when visiting NYC.
The common perception is the Red Sox do not treat players with respect, especially Japanese players. Many have pointed to Yoshida being disrespected by the Red Sox, not being allowed to play the field and being used sparingly when he was healthy enough to at least hit.
“The Boston Red Sox were not among the teams invited to meet in-person with Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki, according to a report.. Sasaki is known to have met in-person with the Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, New York Mets, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers, and New York Yankees.”
“While the Red Sox are still technically in on free agent Japanese phenom pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto their chances appear to be on life support. Over the weekend, Yamamoto had second meetings in New York with the Mets and Yankees but did not schedule a stop in Boston.”
“During his free agency period, pitcher Kodai Senga did not visit the Boston Red Sox organization, though they had expressed interest and contact with his representatives.
Reports indicated that Senga visited the Mets, Padres, Giants, and Rangers organizations”
Just because a few players didnt want to play for the Sox (for whatever reason) doesnt mean they have a bad reputation among Japanese players.
medic – A few? Try EVERY Japanese player that has come to MLB over the past 3 years.
Respect, dignity and honor are very important to Japanese players. The Red Sox have a long history of treating their players like crap, we saw it most recently with what they did to Devers. Japanese players and their agents take note of that, they are intelligent enough to realize if a franchise icon and highly respected player like Raffy gets treated that badly, then it could happen to anyone including Japanese free agents.
The Red Sox have made their bed, and they have been forced to lie in it now. The chickens come home to roost.
FPG – I wouldnt limit any of this to Japanese players. I think its all Free Agents and all players in general.
Sad – Agreed, but I think Japanese players value treatment of players a lot more than players of other origins do.
Respect is a big, big deal with the Japanese. The Red Sox don’t respect players, they treat them like nothing more than commodities.
FPG – now that the Penquins have been sold by FSG, do you think Theo can spend a little time mentoring Breslow????
sad – Yeah I just heard about that a couple days ago, why did they sell so quickly after buying?
I know Fenway Corners is on hold, in part because of financing. Did FSG need the cash from the sale to put towards the Corners?
I always kinda liked the Penguins, Pittsburgh is a cool city and I liked Mario and Jagr and Ronnie Francis.
I don’t think Theo will be that involved in mentoring Breslow because John Henry and Kennedy want things done their way. Theo was always big on spending, that doesn’t fly with John Henry now. Plus Theo doesn’t believe in heavily relying on analytics, he’s now considered Old School.
he would be a good fit at 1b (since they seem to want to move on from Casas). They have deep pockets and a history with foreign players.
James – It’s the same problem though, he wants to get paid as a 3B because he’s been a 3B since 2021. He’s not gonna accept less from a team just because they want to move him back to 1B.
The best fit is to stay in Japan. As a Mets fan, I want no part of Chris Davis part 2.
8 year deal for a close to 30% whiff rate in the NPB? I know the free agency pool is weak but JFC you couldnt be serious with that projection, it makes absolutely no sense for BOTH sides.
His K rate is lower than Ohtani’s was in Japan. Just FYI.
This is the main response I see to anyone mentioning Murekami’s K rates, but comparing him to the 18-22 age NPB seasons of one of the greatest hitters ever and using that as a basis for your projection seems like a pretty hard sell. Ohtani is the outlier, that should be obvious.
If that is the projection, only a half dozen teams could afford him, and not sure they all need a 1B/3B.
If Boston could have offloaded Yoshida’s contract to save money they would have done so by now just to open the roster spot for a more useful player. No other team is taking that contract on at this point, and tossing a comment like that in any supposedly serious article calls into question the authors grasp on things a bit.
Don’t mean to imply that they could drop the whole 2/36. Agree that’s definitely not happening. I think they could get someone to take like $5M annually, which probably isn’t worthwhile right now but makes more sense if they add a first baseman and keep Casas and all the outfielders
i think somoene would take on about half that contract. The OF that signed for 8-10m for 1 year have biggest question marks than yoshida…. but are they going to eat 20m just to clear roster space (and other 20m)
KingKen:
“No other team is taking that contract at this point”
We know. Its been obvious Yoshida’s contract is underwater for a while now.
But, the author is only saying “a few million dollars”. If the Red Sox eat a big chunk of the contract, there would be a market for him. After all he does have a 109 OPS+ number in 3 years, including 2025’s injury riddled season. The guy can hit big league pitching, unfortunately he’s not good for anything else.
Tigers
That’s my guess. Or Padres or Rockies on a short termer so he can hit 40 bombs and re-enter free agency. Guy was built for Coors Field and the new admin in Denver needs a splash and someone to turn out to watch.
with ath idea- the As would not be out of the quesrtion. they never give out deal like that, but if they think he can play 3b, they have a hole there (Muncy the younger), but long term that may be Leo De Vries spot.
I’m guessing that the Angels will sign him
That would be cool, especially if he figures out how to hit over here. They have a decent young core.
God. I hope not. There’s enough strike out machines on this team already.
My guess is the Mets. I think David Stearns has to make a huge splash. Maybe Murakami turns into the next Kyle Schwarber, maybe he’s the next Russell Branyan.
Or perhaps Joey Gallo who averaged 36 HR’s and 223 SO’s per a 162 game season.
Hard to imagine that the Mets sign him after bringing in Polanco. The only fit there is if he’s mostly DHing AND if they trade Vientos.
Should be Pirates.
I think it could happen, other teams that are interested are probably more interested in Bregmans etc but they won’t be able to wait for that to happen because of the posting window. His price should be more reasonable with less teams bidding, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the pirates or another smallish market team gets him.
maybe if he goes for 5-6 and under 100m…. but i feel like people checked in before going all in on Swarber and Alonso at those prices
Schwarber and Alonso are known quantities, it’s tough to compare.
Except 1B is the only position they have filled.
I’m sure they could figure something out position wise
Horwitz has played 2B at the MLB level, and they still need a DH. A Horwitz platoon with Nick G makes a lot of sense, and/or a Horwitz platoon with Cutch, assuming he eventually resigns. Not to mention they also need a 3B, and his defense probably isn’t bad enough to outweigh the offense they so desperately need. He seems tailor made for the Clemente wall.
This is the kind of move that sells tickets and builds international interest. Granted, it comes with an huge amount of risk involved, and unfortunately, we have Bob, the most risk averse man on the planet, so it’ll never happen.
calibucsfan – hahahahahaha, omfg, it would be so hysterical if they jumped out and offered the fake Schwarber 4yr $100m deal, and nothing else happened and they got stuck……
Are the Mariners secretly a contender here?
Can’t imagine. 1B is very much filled and even if they think he can play 3rd, the 3rd best infield prospect in baseball is in their farm and just about ready. And they could just sign Geno Suarez for a year or two. Signing MM would be fairly silly.
A mystery team needing a left handed power bat is going to land him…aka Diamondbacks.
How does “lower price, lower expectation Pete Alonzo replacement” translate to Japanese? That’s the Mets non-compelling pitch. In 2026 Juan So-So might break Bonds’ intentional walk record.
They already signed their Alonso replacement. What about this do Mets fans not grasp?
Given his struggles with elite velocity, the best fit for Murakami in purely baseball terms may be with the Yakult Swallows.
Cubs or Red Sox sign him and then trade prospects for pitching.
No place to play in Chi-town. Corner infield is set and cheap. Could see the Red Sox sign him and try him at 3rd, or play him at 1st and trade Casas.
It would be ironically hilarious if the Red Sox tried him at third base only to tell him he should leave his glove at home…
I like him on the cubs. 1b when facing lefties and dh or 3b on the regular
Murakami is a left-handed hitter, same as Cubs 1B Michael Busch. If Chicago wants a short side platoon partner with Busch then fellow Japanese FA Kazuma Okamoto makes more sense as a right handed bat.
Like Murakami, Okamoto is also a 3B/1B. He’s 4 year’s older and figures to command a much cheaper contract, especially in terms of length. Okamoto lacks Murakami’s elite raw power but he still has significant pop that should play at the corners. Okamoto also provides more contact skills and is considered a better defender than Murakami.
Maybe the A’s surprise us all and outbid everyone else and sell him on the glitz of playing in Las Vegas (eventually)?
Okay, that was just a joke.
The house that Munetaka Murakami built?
i actually think it makes sense. They need a 3b- if they think he can play 3b- then he would be a good signing. It means De Vries likely becomes a 2b in the bigs, but that is fine. (or they think Rooker can play enough corner OF to make it work).
The Mets should sign him to the same 5 year contract they offered Alonso back in 2024. That would be hilarious
He’s not going to the Yankees.
He’s just like Tsutsugo, can’t hit fastball.
…can’t hit NBP fastballs? Good luck in MLB. ~
I was thinking about Tsutsugo too. Guys like Suzuki and Yoshida also saw a pretty decent uptick in their K% after coming over.
His K rate is lower than Ohtani’s was in NPB. Shohei also had “trouble with elite velocity.” LOL.
You go ahead and sign Munetaka Murakami because of Shohei Ohtani, then!
Probably 36 waist 34 inseam?
I have Munetaka Murakami signing with the Sox.
99% chance with the Red Sox.
01% chance with the White Sox.
MLBTR has the White Sox at the bottom of their suitor list with the comment, “Not happening.”
I’d give the White Sox a slightly better chance than that with Chris Getz stating that the organization is finally seeing the “light at the end of the tunnel” as their latest rebuild begins to show promise. The White Sox certainly have ample payroll space to accommodate a contract for Murakami. He’s also just 25 and would easily fit into their relevance window of 2027 and beyond.
Getz has also stated that a prime goal this offseason is for the team to add a left-handed corner bat with power. Murakami certainly checks that box. Getz has also stated that the team is looking to make their presence known in the Asian market after pretty much ignoring it after their 2005 championship.
This is also the same organization that tried to woo superstar FA’s Manny Machado and Bryce Harper as they were preparing to come out of their last rebuild during the 2018 offseason with stingy owner Jerry Reinsdorf holding the purse strings. JR is sill writing the checks but he has a powerful minority owner on board now in Justin Ishbia who is already beginning to infuse capital into the team and who will be writing all the checks as the decade draws to a close.
It would still be a shock to see Murakami sign with the White Sox but that nearly happened with Manny Machado seven years ago before the “mystery team” Padres swooped him away at the last minute. Perhaps the White Sox can be the “mystery team” with Murakami this time.
Ha-ha!
I just gave the White Sox a 1% chance of signing of signing Munetaka Murakami.
ESPN just updated their predictions for the remaining top FA’s and guess who they have signing Murakami…the White Sox!
espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47324399/mlb-2025-26-offse…
In light of this breaking story and its source I will now revise my initial Munetaka Murakami prediction to:
90% chance with the Red Sox.
10% chance with the White Sox.
LOL
The nice thing is we’ll know the answer by Monday.
There probably a ton of calls flying. Has he visited with above or done a physical?
Casey Close and Murakami have kept that under wraps.
” Nolan Schanuel is a fine first baseman”? Nolan Schanuel has turned in 1.3 bWAR each of the last two seasons. Last season, that was about the same as Spencer Horwitz, Luis Arraez, Paul Goldschmidt and Carlos Santana. And Schanuel’s SLG is under .400, so his WAR is not coming from what you want out of a 1B (13 HR??). He’s not a championship 1B and the Angels are going to have to improve at that position in order to contend. But they’re not contending next season, and probably not the season after that, so that the sensible thing is not to try to replace Schanuel now with someone like Murakami. (Although LAA and sensible have not frequently been used in the same sentence.)
Still the Red Sox, Mets, and Yankees.
– Red Sox have no proven 3B and Casas is not a sure thing to return at all.
– Polanco is best suited to 2B. Trade McNeil.
– Rice is a DH. No one else would block Murakami at 3B/1B.
Outside chance are the Angels, Dodgers, and Giants.
According to a Japan tabloid it’s between 4 teams that could sign him Mariners padres mets and red sox
All of those teams are possible, but the Red Sox, Mets and Yankees are still at the top of the list as far as I have seen. I don’t see the Padres signing him, but I could see them signing Okamoto who plays better defense and seems to fit their style better. The Mariners are at the top of how much they have said they will be spending on payroll, so I doubt they make an offer, let alone sign him.
If the Reds were in on Schwarber…. they should be in Murakami