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Latest On Bo Bichette’s Knee Injury

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Bo Bichette will not return before the start of the postseason, Blue Jays manager John Schneider told reporters this evening (via Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet). However, Schneider said that a recent second evaluation on the shortstop’s sprained left knee was encouraging enough that he could resume baseball activities later in the week.

Bichette suffered the injury a week and a half ago when he collided with Yankees catcher Austin Wells in a play at home plate. Toronto announced the issue as a left knee sprain when they placed him on the injured list last week. Schneider specified last night that it’s a PCL sprain (via Mitch Bannon of The Athletic). Today’s second opinion was viewed as more of a routine follow-up than an indication the team feared a serious injury.

It’s decent news, all things considered, though the Jays have yet to firmly announce that he’ll be ready for the start of the playoffs. Jon Morosi of The MLB Network reported this afternoon that a postseason return remained a possibility. That will clearly be Bichette’s goal. He would return without having logged game reps for three weeks. It’s a suboptimal situation but one the Jays would be happy to live with if it meant getting one of their best hitters back in October.

Bichette’s regular season concludes with a .311/.357/.483 slash across 628 plate appearances. He still leads the majors in hits (181) and doubles (44). He’s 15 knocks up on Bobby Witt Jr., so it’s possible he’ll lead the American League in hits for the third time in his career despite the injury. Bichette also connected on 18 homers with a career-low 14.5% strikeout rate. He’s on track to cash in as he hits free agency going into his age-28 season.

It’s possible he has played his final regular season game in a Jays uniform, though he and the team will hope to finish this year with a long playoff run. It remains to be seen whether he’d be mobile enough to play shortstop next month. “In a perfect world, if he can come back and play short, great,” Schneider said last night (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). “We’ll see how this goes. With how he’s moving, it seems to me that hitting will be a little bit in front of everything else. I think we’ll know more tomorrow or the next day, but if we can get his bat back, hell yeah, I’ll take that.”

Bichette’s injury has kicked Andrés Giménez from second base to shortstop. Ernie Clement is playing second regularly, leaving third base to Addison Barger. That’s a better defensive grouping than they had with Bichette up the middle, but Barger’s move to third base leaves Nathan Lukes as the everyday right fielder. Lukes has been a league average hitter overall but is batting .225 with a .238 on-base percentage in September.

If Bichette is able to hit but too injured to take the field, they’d be left to press George Springer into regular right field work. Springer has had a resurgent season at the plate but only started 48 games and logged 411 2/3 innings of outfield work. Toronto also hasn’t closed the door on a late-season comeback from Anthony Santander.

The switch-hitting Santander has been a non-factor in the first season of a five-year deal. He hasn’t played an MLB game since the end of May because of a left shoulder issue but started a rehab assignment at Triple-A Buffalo last week. He’s working as a designated hitter with the Bisons. Santander might be limited to a bench role if he gets back for the playoffs, especially if Bichette is questionable for defense. Even if Santander’s first season in Toronto has been a disaster, Schneider would surely welcome the opportunity to turn to a player who hit 44 home runs last year as a power bat off the bench.

Toronto has a magic number of four to clinch a playoff berth. That should happen by the end of this week. They hold a five-game cushion over the Yankees in the AL East. They’re three games ahead of the Tigers for the AL’s top seed and six games up on the AL West-leading Mariners. Locking down the division would almost certainly ensure they finish as a top two seed and secure a first-round bye. The Division Series begin on October 4.

Blue Jays Place Bo Bichette On Injured List

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3:15pm: There’s no immediate timetable for Bichette’s return. Manager John Schneider tells the Jays beat that Bichette, who first felt discomfort in his shin and knee on Sunday, will rest for the remainder of the week and be reevaluated early next week (link via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet).

2:07pm: The Blue Jays announced Tuesday that shortstop Bo Bichette is headed to the 10-day injured list due to a left knee sprain. The IL placement is retroactive to Sept. 7. Bichette will be eligible to return in eight days, though the team hasn’t provided any sort of timetable just yet. Outfielder Joey Loperfido has been recalled from Triple-A Buffalo to take Bichette’s spot on the active roster.

Losing the 27-year-old Bichette for any period of time is a potential gut-punch to the first-place Jays, who hold a two-game lead over the Yankees and a three-game lead over the Red Sox in the AL East. Bichette has not only bounced back from last year’s injury-ruined season — he’s enjoyed one of the most productive seasons of his career. In 628 plate appearances, he’s slashing .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs, 44 doubles, a triple, a 6.4% walk rate (well shy of league average but one of his best marks) and a tiny 14.6% strikeout rate.

Bichette has been particularly hot over the past two months, posting a ridiculous .380/.431/.580 batting line (182 wRC+) with six homers, 23 doubles, an 8% walk rate and an 11.6% strikeout rate in a span of 225 plate appearances.

With Bichette sidelined for at least the next eight games, Ernie Clement and/or Isiah Kiner-Falefa will likely step up and fill the void at shortstop. Clement gets the first shortstop nod tonight, and while he can’t match Bichette’s offense, he’s a superior defender at the position. That’ll free up Addison Barger to play third base more, while Loperfido joins Kiner-Falefa, Nathan Lukes, Daulton Varsho, George Springer, Davis Schneider and Myles Straw among the team’s outfield options. It’ll be Loperfido, Varsho and Lukes tonight (left field to right field, respectively). Springer is hitting leadof in the designated hitter slot.

Beyond the immediate roster and postseason ramifications, the injury is particularly ill-timed for Bichette from a personal standpoint. He’d surely say this talk takes a backseat to team needs and postseason hopes, but Bichette is a free agent at season’s end. His bounceback effort has positioned him as one of the top free agents on the upcoming market. If he’s able to return following a relatively brief stay, this isn’t likely to have any real impact on his earning power at all. But if Bichette requires a notable absence or struggles in his return while dealing with lingering effects from the injury, his health will be a far more prominent question when looking at his free agent market this winter.

Blue Jays Notes: Shapiro, Bichette, Schneider, Springer, Manoah

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Mark Shapiro is in the midst of his tenth season as the Blue Jays’ president and CEO, and his current five-year contract is up after the conclusion of the 2025 campaign.  Speaking with The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon and other reporters earlier this week, Shapiro didn’t give any updates on any extension talks, or if any negotiations were even ongoing.  However, Shapiro firmly stated “I want to remain here, and I can also say that both Edward and Tony have been reciprocal in that desire,” referring to Rogers Communications chairman Edward Rogers and CEO Tony Staffieri.

It is worth noting that when Shapiro’s previous five-year deal expired following the 2020 campaign, a new extension wasn’t reached until January 2021.  The Jays’ front office operated more or less normally during this interim period, or as “normally” as could be expected since the pandemic was still a gigantic factor during the 2020-21 offseason (particularly since the Blue Jays couldn’t play in Toronto until the end of July 2021).  It would seem like an unofficial agreement was in place for Shapiro’s return and things just weren’t formalized until that January, so if history repeats itself, we might not receive public confirmation of a new contract until some time after the 2025 season is over.

While Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins have received plenty of criticism over their decade in charge of the franchise, the fan angst that reached a peak after the Jays’ dismal 2024 season has now been quieted by Toronto’s huge turn-around in 2025.  The Blue Jays have the second-best record in baseball and a five-game lead in the AL East as we reach mid-August.  Despite postseason appearances in 2020, 2022, and 2023, the Jays haven’t won a playoff game (let alone a series) since reaching the 2016 ALCS in the first year of the Shapiro/Atkins tenure.

Given the Jays’ current success on the field and the franchise-building projects Shapiro has overseen (i.e. major renovations to both Rogers Centre and the Blue Jays’ Spring Training complex) in the last decade, it would certainly seem like the executive is in good standing to receive another contract.  The same could be said of John Schneider since the manager is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, and while Shapiro deferred comment on any extension talks, he did praise Schneider’s work over his three-plus years leading the dugout.

Likewise, Shapiro didn’t go into detail over any plans to retain impending free agent Bo Bichette, other than to say “I’m confident that, at the right time, we’ll make an effort.”  This likely means the Blue Jays will wait until after the season, as Shapiro didn’t want to draw any focus away from Bichette’s on-field efforts.  After an injury-marred down year in 2024, Bichette has looked much more like his old self, hitting .294/.336/.463 with 16 homers over 538 plate appearances (for a 122 wRC+).

Speaking of returns to form, George Springer’s resurgence has been one of the keys to the Jays’ season, and the veteran looks to be close to an activation off the concussion-related injured list.  Springer hasn’t played since he was hit in the head by a pitch on July 28, but he has now cleared concussion protocols and returned to action in a minor league rehab game today.

Springer was 1-for-2 with a walk and a double for Triple-A Buffalo, acting as the Bisons’ designated hitter.  Postgame, Springer told reporters (including Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News) that he isn’t sure if he’ll remain for another rehab game on Friday, perhaps to play the outfield as the final step in the recovery process.

Things didn’t go as smoothly for Alek Manoah in his first Triple-A rehab game on Wednesday, as the starter allowed three runs on three hits and two walks over 1 2/3 innings and 49 pitches.  Bannon writes that the plan was for Manoah to toss 70-75 pitches over as many as five innings, except the outing had to be cut short due to the righty’s struggles.

It has been almost three years since Manoah was a viable force in the Blue Jays’ rotation, as he struggled badly in 2023 and his hopes at a bounce-back year were halted by a Tommy John surgery in June 2024.  Over four rehab starts at four different minor league levels, Manoah has an 11.57 ERA and more walks (eight) than strikeouts (six) in seven total innings.

Until his control or his overall results improve, it is hard to see Manoah being called up for a significant role for a team battling for a division title.  A return to the rotation might not be necessary since deadline trade acquisition Shane Bieber is first in line as the proverbial sixth starter, but even bringing Manoah back as a reliever is a risk if he can’t harness his pitches.

MLBTR Podcast: Walk-Year Performances, Roman Anthony’s Extension, And More!

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Should Tigers fans be nervous? Is the club worse off going into next year? Should they trade Tarik Skubal this winter? (38:55)
  • The Mets didn’t trade Mark Vientos at the deadline and Pete Alonso is trending towards opting out. Will the Mets move on from Alonso this time? (51:05)
  • The teams that are considering six-man rotations, should they piggyback two of them in one game? (57:20)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Eric Hartline, Imagn Images

Bo Bichette’s Earning Power Spectrum

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Last month, MLB Trade Rumors published an early Power Rankings looking ahead to the upcoming free agent class. Kyle Tucker was an obvious choice for the top spot and Dylan Cease ended up pretty comfortably in second. The next few entrants were tougher to separate, but Bo Bichette ended up third.

Bichette’s free agency was and is tough to peg. He has a strong track record of success, but his 2024 season was awful. His bat has been strong on the whole, though with a swing-happy profile that lacks walks. His defense has been passable enough to stick at short, but he’s not great there.

Of the potential top free agents this coming winter, he seemingly has some of the widest error bars. This post will take a look at the spectrum, using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker as a guide.

As you can see in that screenshot (link for app users), I’ve used the dropdown bars to search for free agent deals for shortstops over the past five years. I’ve then ranked them by the total guarantee on the contract. There are some pretty clear tiers in earning power, so let’s see where Bichette could fit in.

From 2019 through 2023, his production was quite consistent. He splashed onto the scene with a 143 wRC+ in 46 games in his debut season but then his wRC+ finished in the 120 to 130 range in each of the next four seasons. His home run total in the three full seasons from 2021 to 2023 fell between 20 and 29. His walk rate was on the low side in each of those campaigns, falling between 4.5% and 5.9%, but he also struck out less than average and ran batting averages near .300.

The defensive reviews have been mixed. Defensive Runs Saved has him at -11 for his whole career, though a big chunk of that is a -16 in 2022 alone, which looks like a clear outlier. Apart from that, he’s generally been near average, give or take a few runs on either side. Outs Above Average, however, doesn’t like his glovework at all. Bichette has -22 OAA for his career and has been below average in almost every season. The only campaigns in which he’s finished with a positive OAA were the shortened 2020 season and his injury-marred 2024 campaign.

Still, the bat was enough to produce plenty of value. FanGraphs had him between 3.9 and 4.9 wins above replacement in each season from 2021 to 2023. Baseball Reference pegged him between 3.7 and 5.9.

Things went off the rails last year. Bichette seemingly battled leg injuries all year, twice going on the IL due to right calf strains. He got into just 81 games, hit only four home runs and produced an ugly .225/.277/.322 batting line, 71 wRC+.

Turning to 2025, Bichette seems to have bounced back to his old self. Through 211 plate appearances, he has a .292/.341/.431 and 121 wRC+. That’s despite a slow start. Through the end of April, he still hadn’t hit a home run, leading to a decent but powerless .295/.328/.364 line and 97 wRC+. Since the calendar has flipped to May, he has finally gone over the fence four times, helping him hit .288/.365/.561 for a wRC+ of 163 this month.

Turning to the Contract Tracker list, at the top is a level that Bichette shouldn’t be able to get to, with Corey Seager at $325MM followed by Trea Turner at $300MM. Seager got his deal going into his age-28 season, the same age Bichette will be next year. However, Seager was simply better. His power output was fairly close to Bichette’s but with far more walks, leading to a 142 wRC+. His defense was also graded higher.

Seager had 19.8 fWAR at the time he signed with the Rangers. Bichette could actually go past that since he’s at 17.2 fWAR right now, but that’s mostly due to Seager’s injuries (most notably, Tommy John surgery). Seager produced that WAR total in just 514 regular season games as a Dodger, whereas Bichette already has 655 games under his belt. There was some injury risk with Seager but he was far better on a rate basis and that’s what the Rangers paid for.

Turner was a bit older, going into his age-30 season, but his combination of offense, defense and speed gave him a massive ceiling Bichette can’t match. In his final two seasons before free agency, he produced 7.1 and 6.4 fWAR. As mentioned, Bichette has topped out at 4.9.

The next two names on the list are a bit unusual. Xander Bogaerts getting $280MM registered as a huge surprise at the time and the deal hasn’t worked out for the Padres so far. In the industry, that one is chalked up to the Friars going a bit wild. Owner Peter Seidler was in poor health and was allowing the front office to spend like never before, seemingly throwing caution to the wind with the knowledge that he didn’t have much time left.

Carlos Correa’s deal is also an unusual data point. His earning power was initially far higher. He had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants before they got scared by his physical and walked away. The Mets agreed to a 12-year $315MM deal with Correa before they, too, balked at his medicals. The $200MM deal with the Twins was therefore the product of a fairly unprecedented situation. The unique quartet of vesting options in the deal reflect the odd circumstances and could add millions more to Correa’s bank account.

There’s a case for Bichette to be in the next tier. I’ll circle back to Marcus Semien in a second and focus first on Willy Adames, Dansby Swanson, Javier Báez and Trevor Story. Each signed his contract going into his age-29 season and earned between $23.3MM and $26MM annually. Adames and Swanson got a seventh year, pushing their total guarantees to $182MM and $177MM respectively. Báez and Story were each capped at six years and $140MM total.

Bichette will be one year younger than everyone in that group, theoretically giving him a bit more earning power. The question will be whether he’s ranked as highly apart from that. Adames is a better defender, with 11 OAA and -3 DRS in his career. That latter figure is a bit odd, as he was clearly in positive range before posting -16 DRS 2024 and -7 so far as a Giant.

Offensively, he had often been similar to Bichette. He had a 126 wRC+ in 2020 and a 120 in 2021, with 25 home runs in the latter season. His power remained in 2022 and 2023 but low batting averages dropped his wRC+ to 109 and 94 in those seasons. He bounced back in 2024 with 32 home runs and a 119 wRC+. His fWAR totals have generally been in the Bichette range of three to five per season.

Swanson was always a glove-first shortstop with questions about the bat. Through 2021, he still had a career 88 wRC+. But in 2022, his walk year, he hit 25 home runs and produced a 117 wRC+. Thanks to his excellent defense and 18 stolen bases, he was able to produce a 6.6 fWAR season. That was a tier above anything Bichette has done, but he had only done it once. Still, it was enough for the Cubs to buy in.

Báez and Story were more erratic. Báez was a subpar hitter in his first few seasons but provided enough on defense and the basepaths to be useful. His offense improved as he neared free agency but wasn’t consistent. His wRC+ spiked to 131 in 2018 and dropped to 112 the year after. The shortened 2020 season was a disaster, with a wRC+ of 57, before he bounced back to 117 in 2021. At his heights, he was almost a six-win player, getting to 5.8 and 5.6 fWAR in 2018 and 2019. Those were higher than any Bichette season, but he was also well below at times.

Somewhat similarly, Story hit a higher peak than Bichette by producing 6.0 fWAR in 2019. He hit 35 home runs, though playing in Denver during the juiced ball season surely helped him a bit in that regard. Still, the 122 wRC+, 23 steals and strong defense led to a six-win season. He also had 2.0 fWAR in the shortened 2020 campaign with similar production. But in his walk year, 2021, his wRC+ dropped to 98 and he only produced 2.2 fWAR. That tepid platform season and some concerns about his elbow health knocked him down a bit.

Here is the fWAR total for each in the six seasons leading to free agency, including the shortened 2020 season for all in the name of fairness:

Baez: 21.9 in 782 games
Story: 20.3 in 745 games
Adames: 20.1 in 795 games
Bichette: 15.8 in 609 games
Swanson: 15.1 in 789 games

Bichette is right in the thick there. As mentioned, Swanson bloomed in his walk year, so it makes sense he would be at the bottom of this six-year list. If Bichette has a typical year for him, he could add another three or four wins and get fairly close to the other shorstops on the list. Factor in some inflation and that he’s a year younger than everyone in that pack and he has a case to earn something around $200MM.

What will also work in his favor is that he’ll be the clear top shortstop this winter, as Adames was in the most recent offseason. Alongside Bichette, the only other potential everyday shortstop this winter would be Ha-Seong Kim. He is still recovering from last year’s shoulder surgery and needs to both recover and play well enough to opt out of the second season of his two-year deal with the Rays. Even in a best-case scenario where that all happens, his earning power would be below a healthy and productive Bichette.

This is all still somewhat hypothetical. As mentioned, Bichette seems to be getting back to his 2021-23 pace this year, but in a fairly small sample. There’s still lots of time for the season to turn on him. If he ends up having more 2024-style struggles, he could certainly fall. Let’s turn to the Contract Tracker again.

These are the top deals for second basemen by average annual value in the past five years (link for app users). This perhaps paints a picture of Bichette’s floor. Given his questionable defense, it’s possible that clubs may view him as someone who’s likely to move to second base fairly soon. And the earning power of second basemen is clearly lesser than that of shortstops. Semien did get $175MM from the Rangers, though that’s an outlier. At the time, the Rangers were five years into a deep rebuild and were eager to speed up the process with aggressive spending.

Gleyber Torres is an interesting comp for Bichette, as there are some parallels. Torres was once a highly-touted shortstop prospect, but with a better bat than glove. Unlike Bichette, he couldn’t stick at short. The Yankees moved him to second base for good in 2022, his age-25 season.

His offensive production has been somewhat comparable to Bichette’s on the whole. He went into free agency with a .265/.334/.441 line and 113 wRC+, a bit below Bichette’s typical range. He also had a tepid platform year, slashing .257/.330/.378 for a 104 wRC+ in 2024. He settled for a one-year, $15MM “prove it” deal with the Tigers.

It currently seems unlikely that Bichette would fall quite that far. His career wRC+ of 120 is a few ticks above what Torres brought to the open market last fall. Bichette also has a leg up defensively, as he will be going into free agency as a viable shortstop, at least for the short term.

But a soft finish in 2025 could hamper Bichette. In that scenario, he’d be going into free agency on the heels of two fairly disappointing seasons in a row. That was the situation Cody Bellinger was in going into 2023. After two injury-marred seasons with the Dodgers, he was non-tendered and settled for a one-year, $17.5MM pact with the Cubs for his age-27 season. He bounced back that year and went into the open market ahead of his age-28 campaign.

But there were enough question marks from his inconsistency, health and defense that he settled for a three-year, $80MM deal to return to the Cubs, well below initial expectations. He earned opt-out chances after each season in that deal but declined the first chance after a good-not-great 2024 season.

Time will tell where Bichette ultimately puts himself on this earning spectrum, but it appears to be quite wide. Anything from $20MM to $200MM seems somewhat plausible, depending on his performance over the four-plus months, which will make him a fascinating player to track.

A qualifying offer would be something of a footnote when talking about a $200MM deal but would certainly become noteworthy if Bichette finds himself on the other end. The QO was $21.05MM in the most recent offseason and will surely go up for the coming winter, after a number of recent mega deals. The QO is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 top-paid players. Each of Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Blake Snell, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Corbin Burnes earned AAVs of $35MM or higher recently. Though there are some deferrals in those deals, the QO value is sure to rise.

Bichette would only be eligible to receive a QO if he sticks with the Jays until the end of the season. Players traded midseason are not eligible to receive one. If the Jays fall out of the race and trade Bichette at the deadline, the QO won’t be a factor for him — yet another detail that could sway a volatile free agent case with many factors at play.

Photo of Bichette courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images

MLBTR Podcast: Free Agent Power Rankings

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss MLBTR’s first edition of the 2025-26 Free Agent Power Rankings, including these focal points…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images

Atkins: Jays Still Hope To Extend Bichette

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The Jays have one cornerstone in place long-term, having finalized their 14-year deal with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and general manager Ross Atkins said in the wake of that deal’s announcement that his club is still hopeful of signing Guerrero’s longtime teammate, shortstop Bo Bichette, to a long-term deal as well (via Sportsnet’s Hazel Mae).

“The interest is definitely there,” said Atkins. “…It’s also our vision for [Guerrero and Bichette] to continue to play together. We will do everything in our power to see if we can line up.”

Bichette has voiced a desire to remain in Toronto long-term. He said last year that his “ultimate goal” in his baseball career is “to play with Vladdy forever, to win a championship with him and to do that with this organization.” Bichette acknowledged just a few days ago that there were currently no extension efforts in the works, but those comments came before Guerrero’s deal had been formally announced and mere hours after an agreement had reportedly been reached.

It stands to reason that the Jays’ primary focus has been on keeping Guerrero, who finished sixth in AL MVP voting last year on the heels of a fourth straight All-Star campaign. Both Guerrero and Bichette were set to become free agents following the 2025 season. With Guerrero standing as the focal point of the team’s long-term direction, the Jays may not have wanted to commit one way or another regarding Bichette until their first baseman’s status had been resolved.

Bichette, of course, is difficult to value at the moment. The 27-year-old is a two-time All-Star who’s garnered down-ballot MVP votes in three seasons and looked like an organizational pillar alongside Guerrero for much of his early career. From the time of his 2019 debut as a 21-year-old through the conclusion of the 2023 season, Bichette posted a collective .299/.340/.487 batting line — 26% better than league-average by measure of wRC+.

The 2024 season threw his outlook into disarray. Bichette floundered through the season’s first several months, posting an anemic .237/.286/.342 batting line before landing on the injured list due to a calf strain. He returned after a minimal stint but was back on the shelf with a strain in that same calf just three weeks later.

Bichette may not have been full strength at any point between the two calf strains, as his offense in the interim was even worse than it was prior to his original IL placement (.143/.218/.204 in 55 plate appearances). This time, Bichette missed two months of action, returned to go 2-for-5 in his first game back … and promptly suffered a broken finger during pregame fielding drills. That injury required surgery, ending his season with a career-worst .225/.277/.322 batting line.

Bichette’s name floated around the rumor mill both in the run-up to the trade deadline and again in the offseason, but Atkins was vocal about his unwillingness to discuss a deal. The GM stated in June that trading either Guerrero or Bichette “doesn’t make any sense for us,” and within days of the offseason commencing Atkins repeated that the concept of trading Bichette was “an easy no” for the Blue Jays.

That thinking surely hasn’t changed after Bichette enjoyed a monster spring training (.373/.411/.667, four homers in 56 plate appearances) and has started out with a strong .291/.344/.364 performance in the regular season. He’s yet to homer, but Bichette is making plenty of hard contact (90.6 mph average exit velocity, 48% hard-hit rate) and elevating the ball at even higher levels than he his in his career to date. If he keeps doing so, the big flies are sure to follow.

A big surge early in the season would presumably make a deal easier to strike. On the heels of last year’s disastrous results, the team may have had questions about whether 2024 was an anomaly or the beginning of a worrying trend. Bichette himself would presumably have been reluctant to sell himself short, considering his lengthy track record and proximity to free agency. If Bichette continues to look like himself and make last year appear to be an outlier, it’ll raise his price tag but also give the Jays more certainty that they’re making a sound investment.

Bichette doesn’t carry the earning power Guerrero did on the back of a colossal 2024 showing, but he’d be in line for a strong nine-figure deal as a free agent if he can get back to his 2020-23 form. He’ll hit the market ahead of his age-28 season, making him one of the youngest and highest-upside plays on the 2025-26 free agent market.

From a payroll vantage point, the Jays should have room to extend Bichette even after signing Guerrero. Toronto will see Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt and Chad Green reach free agency at season’s end. RosterResource pegs them with about $186MM committed to next year’s books — a stark decline of about $64.5MM over their 2024 payroll. That doesn’t include arbitration raises, but Daulton Varsho is the only Blue Jay in line to command a notable salary in 2026. He’ll earn a raise over this year’s $8.2MM mark.

Poll: Will Bo Bichette Stay In Toronto?

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The big news around baseball this week is superstar slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sticking in Toronto on a $500MM extension that will keep him with the Blue Jays for the next 14 years. While the deal is primarily notable because of Guerrero himself being one of the brightest young stars in the game whose free agency had long been anticipated by fans around the league, it’s also the most firm statement yet from the Blue Jays that they fully intend to continue attempting to compete even amid an increasingly difficult AL East division.

Entering Spring Training, the club had a number of key players set to come off the books within the next few seasons. That’s still the case for the majority of those players, with important pieces like Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, George Springer, and Daulton Varsho poised to hit the open market within the next two seasons. With that being said, the club’s offseason additions of Andres Gimenez and Anthony Santander combine with their recent extensions for Guerrero and Alejandro Kirk to give the club a talented nucleus of position players to build a new iteration of the club around with pre-arb and early arbitration players like Ernie Clement, Bowden Francis, and Will Wagner helping to further build out that foundation.

With nearly two full seasons until Gausman, Springer, and Varsho depart for free agency, it’s not entirely clear what the Jays’ needs will look like by the time that comes around. Toronto’s impending losses of Bassitt, Scherzer, and Green come November will surely need to be addressed, but most teams need pitching every winter and replacing those players should be fairly straightforward. With Guerrero signed, that leaves the most pertinent question facing Toronto at this point as what to do with shortstop Bo Bichette. The 27-year-old was a consensus top-15 prospect in the sport when he came up to the majors back in 2019 and has spent most of his career paired with Guerrero as one of the club’s two up-and-coming stars.

While Bichette has never had the MVP-caliber campaigns Guerrero posted during the 2021 and ’24 seasons, the hype surrounding him has largely been justified by his body of work in the majors. In 46 games down the stretch in 2019 after a mid-season call-up, Bichette made a big impression by slashing .311/.358/.571 with a 143 wRC+ and 11 homers in just 212 plate appearances. A 29-game stint with Toronto during the shortened 2020 season saw him come down to Earth just a bit as he posted a 120 wRC+, but that level of production proved to be very sustainable for Bichette as his first full three seasons saw him slash .298/.339/.476 with a 125 wRC+ and 13.6 fWAR.

From 2021 to ’23, Bichette was sandwiched between Yordan Alvarez and Sean Murphy on the fWAR leaderboard, good for 22nd in baseball, and his 125 wRC+ allowed him to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with top infielders like Trea Turner and Alex Bregman. Between those strong numbers and his relative youth, Bichette seemed certain to be ticketed for a large payday with the only question being whether it would come in Toronto or elsewhere. Unfortunately, the 2024 season threw all of that completely off the rails. Not only was Bichette limited to just 81 games last year due to multiple calf strains and surgery on his middle finger, but he also struggled badly in the games he was healthy enough to partake in. In 336 trips to the plate last year, Bichette slashed just .225/.277/.322 (71 wRC+).

A look under the hood reveals that Bichette’s strikeout and walk rates were both as good as they’d ever been last year, but he was completely sapped of his power. He hit just four home runs after regularly flashing 25-to-30 homer power in previous years. His .303 xwOBA suggested that he was getting somewhat unlucky in terms of batted ball luck, and that likely contributed to a career-worst .269 BABIP. While a batting average closer to his xBA of .255 would have surely helped his overall production look a bit more robust, the expected numbers aren’t all that kind in the power department. His xSLG was just .375, which while better than his actual production last season, would’ve been well below average if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. That’s in large part thanks to a massive drop-off in barrel rate. Bichette barreled up just 4.4% of his batted balls last year, less than half of his career norm across the rest of his career.

A mediocre defender at shortstop even in his best years, Bichette’s value is so tied to his bat that last season’s struggles made it difficult to imagine him finding the star-level contract in free agency without a big bounceback in the 2025 campaign. Despite both Bichette himself and the Blue Jays as a whole failing to meet expectations last year, Toronto opted not to trade him ahead of his final year under team control, betting on him to regain his form this season. There’s still a long way to go in this season, but the early returns are looking good on that decision. Bichette’s .277/.333/.362 (103 wRC+) slash line entering play today is still pedestrian but nonetheless a big improvement over last year, and more importantly he’s resumed hitting the ball with authority (7.3% barrel rate, 46.3% Hard-Hit rate) in a way that mostly aligns with his career norms.

While it’s certainly good news for both Bichette and the Blue Jays that the shortstop appears to be back to posting quality offensive numbers, what that means for his future is uncertain. There’s some similarities to Cody Bellinger in Bichette’s profile as a free agent, as the two players share All-Star caliber upside as bat-first options at a premium defensive position that could make them very attractive in free agency, but pair that upside with worrisome injury-riddled campaigns where they looked like below-replacement level talents. During the 2023-24 offseason, Bellinger was limited to a short-term deal by the market, though his three-year, $80MM pact with the Cubs afforded him a healthy AAV and multiple opt-out opportunities. Bellinger was marketing his age-28 season that winter just like Bichette would be come November, though a distinct lack of high-end positional talent in free agency this winter (outside of star outfielder Kyle Tucker) could allow Bichette to find a stronger market.

Still, that market uncertainty could be part of why the Jays have not broached the possibility of an extension with their shortstop. Bichette told reporters back in February that the sides hadn’t had talks, and he reiterated to Hazel Mae of Sportsnet yesterday that “nothing’s on the table”  for him from the Blue Jays in terms of an extension. Bichette has made it clear he’d like to remain in Toronto, citing a desire to play for a single organization throughout his entire career and continue his partnership with Guerrero. If Bichette proves himself healthy and effective again this year, that could make plenty of sense for a Blue Jays club that will need more offensive firepower than it got last year even after adding Santander to the mix. On the other hand, the Blue Jays already have a luxury tax payroll of $200MM for 2026 (per RosterResource) before even considering arbitration-level contracts for players like Varsho and Clement.

That could make adding another big salary to the books difficult for the Blue Jays to stomach, and the club has seemingly set itself up to better stomach the loss of Bichette by trading for Gimenez. The 26-year-old has played the vast majority of his big league games at second base, but he has shortstop experience and is regarded as perhaps the best defensive second baseman in the entire sport, suggesting he should have little trouble sliding over to the left side of the infield. Given Bichette’s aforementioned mediocre defense at short, Gimenez could actually prove to be an upgrade at the position in terms of his glove.

That would then mean needing to replace Gimenez at second base and Bichette’s bat in the lineup, however. A big season from Wagner this year could make that possible to do internally. Other internal options who could help out include Davis Schneider, Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez and Leo Jimenez. In terms of external options, this coming offseason has infielders like Gleyber Torres, Ha-Seong Kim, Alex Bregman and Trevor Story as possibilities, depending on some opt-out decisions.

How do MLBTR readers think the situation in Toronto will play out? Will Bichette be allowed to hit free agency? And, if so, will he be playing in Toronto or elsewhere come Opening Day 2026? Have your say in the poll below:

Blue Jays, Bo Bichette Haven’t Discussed Extension

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Bo Bichette will become a free agent at the end of the 2025 season, but the shortstop has yet to discuss a long-term deal with the Blue Jays, Bichette told MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and other reporters.  “We haven’t had any talks, but from my perspective, we all grow up wanting to be one of those guys that has an opportunity to stay with an organization for their entire career,” Bichette said.  “I’m just focused on what I’ve got to do this year to help the team win and be the best version of myself.  Whatever happens will happen.”

While negotiations could still begin later in Spring Training, the lack of activity between Bichette and the Jays isn’t too surprising.  For one, Toronto is facing a more pressing deadline in extension talks with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., as the first baseman said he isn’t willing to continue discussions beyond February 18, which is the Blue Jays’ first full day of spring camp.  Since a Guerrero extension would surely represent both the largest deal in Jays history and one of the larger deals in baseball history, such a big-ticket negotiation is naturally the team’s priority before turning to any other contractual matters.

There’s also the simple fact that it isn’t clear whether or not Bichette is even still in the Blue Jays’ long-term plans, coming off a surprisingly poor 2024 campaign.  Bichette hit only .225/.277/.322 over 336 plate appearances, and played just once after July 19 due to a lengthy recovery from a right calf strain.  A previous IL placement due to another calf strain sidelined Bichette earlier in the season, plus he also had surgery on a fractured right middle finger in late September.

Plenty of other Toronto players struggled and/or battled injuries during an overall dismal year for the franchise, but getting virtually nothing from a cornerstone player like Bichette was a particularly harsh blow to the lineup.  Bichette more or less hit the ground running from the start of his MLB career in 2019, with a strong .299/.340/.487 slash line and 89 home runs over 2328 PA from 2019-23.  Bichette received down-ballot MVP support in each of the last three of those seasons, and twice received All-Star nods while also leading the American League in hits in both 2021 and 2022.

At this time last year, in fact, there was plenty of debate about whether Bichette or Guerrero was the better long-term investment for the Blue Jays, as Guerrero was coming off a relatively modest 118 wRC+ season in 2023 before returning to superstar form in 2024.  It should be noted that Bichette’s own 2023 campaign wasn’t without its warts, as knee and quad problems greatly reduced his production over the final two months of that season.

With all this recent history in mind, “it feels very difficult to find a middle ground both sides would agree on” in extension talks, Matheson observes.  Bichette surely feels like a big rebound year is coming, and so he isn’t going to sell himself short on an asking price.  From Toronto’s perspective, it is only natural that the team wants to see how (or if) Bichette bounces back before considering him for a hefty multi-year pact.

It isn’t too often that star players sign extensions once they get too deep into their final season prior to free agency, so even if Bichette does return to form, it feels like he is essentially a lock to test the market next winter.  Some trade speculation has circled around Bichette over the last couple of years, and while GM Ross Atkins has been steadfast in his refusal to deal Bichette, a trade might become more possible at the deadline if the Blue Jays are struggling again.

Blue Jays Receiving Trade Interest In Bo Bichette

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The Blue Jays are taking trade calls on Bo Bichette, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. While Rosenthal cautions that Toronto is not actively shopping their shortstop, he reports that the Jays are willing to deal Bichette if another club meets a lofty asking price.

That’s a change from last month. At the GM Meetings in early November, general manager Ross Atkins told Jon Morosi of the MLB Network that any trade calls regarding Bichette would be “an easy no.” When a GM publicly shoots down trade rumors regarding a player to that extent, they rarely reverse course.

The biggest exception in recent years came when Juan Soto was a National. Washington GM Mike Rizzo said in June 2022 that the team was “not trading” the outfielder. Two months later, Soto was a Padre. Circumstances changed in the interim, as Soto rejected a $440MM extension offer a couple weeks before the deadline. (That decision proved wise considering the amount of money he landed in free agency two and a half years later.)

Toronto’s circumstances have also changed since Atkins said he wouldn’t consider a Bichette deal. The Jays acquired Andrés Giménez from the Guardians last week, taking on nearly $100MM on his five-year contract to do so. Giménez is the game’s best defensive second baseman. He has won the AL Gold Glove award at the keystone three years running. He came up as a shortstop prospect and didn’t fully move off that position until 2023.

Giménez has elite range, sure hands, and above-average arm strength. He could probably handle shortstop and may well remain a plus defender there. That seemed like Toronto’s long-term plan when they acquired him. Giménez would play second base for his first season with the Jays, then kick over to shortstop once Bichette hit free agency next winter.

That still seems the likeliest outcome. However, Rosenthal notes that the Jays could deal Bichette while signing Alex Bregman to pair with Giménez on the left side of the infield. Toronto has come up empty on its pursuit of top-tier free agents thus far. They’re among four to six teams that are reportedly in the mix on Bregman, who is easily the best unsigned position player. To be clear, Rosenthal didn’t characterize a Bichette trade as being conditional on the Jays signing Bregman. He simply floated that as one potential sequence of outcomes.

The Jays have Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Giménez, and Bichette lined up at three infield spots. Third base is less settled. Toronto has a collection of upper level infielders who are either light on MLB experience or project as utility types. Ernie Clement would probably get the bulk of the playing time. Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, Will Wagner and Leo Jiménez could also vie for reps.

That’s not a group that’d stop the Jays from adding Bregman. They’d have room on the roster for the star third baseman even if they hold Bichette. Dealing their shortstop would open spending room for the upcoming season while potentially bringing back MLB-ready outfield or pitching talent. Bichette is under contract for $16.5MM in his final year of club control.

At the same time, teams could be reluctant to package significant talent after the worst season of Bichette’s career. He’s coming off a dismal .225/.277/.322 showing over 336 plate appearances. He landed on the injured list three times and only appeared in half the team’s games. A pair of right calf strains were the biggest issue. He also broke his right middle finger late in the year and required minor surgery.

That terrible season came out of nowhere. Bichette has otherwise been one of the league’s best middle infielders since he debuted in 2019. He’d hit above .290 and reached 20 homers in each of his first three full seasons. Bichette went into the ’24 campaign with a career .299/.340/.487 slash line in more than 2300 plate appearances. He garnered down ballot MVP votes each year between 2021-23.

Teams don’t know which version of Bichette they’ll get in 2025. That’s also true of the Jays, who are wary of selling low on a star talent. Toronto has never seemed optimistic about their chance of signing him beyond next season, but they’re going into ’25 with the hope of competing. Trading a potential All-Star shortstop for prospects wouldn’t align with that goal. If they fall out of the race, they could market him at the deadline. The best scenario (short of an extension) would be a rebound year from Bichette that helps to keep Toronto in contention and allows them to make a qualifying offer next winter.

The Jays’ willingness to hear teams out on Bichette — even if an offseason trade remains unlikely — boosts a very thin shortstop market. Willy Adames was the top free agent. He went to the Giants, the team with the clearest combination of positional need and payroll flexibility. Ha-Seong Kim, who is recovering from labrum surgery that’ll force him to begin the season on the injured list, is the only other potential regular on the open market. There aren’t many obvious trade candidates. The Braves stand out as the contender with the biggest question at shortstop. The Tigers, Angels, Mariners, Padres and Pirates could also stand to upgrade at least one middle infield position (though the final three clubs might each balk at the $16.5MM price point).

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