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Bo Bichette

MLBTR Podcast: What The Tucker And Bichette Contracts Mean For Baseball – Also, Nolan Arenado And Ranger Suarez

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The overlapping stories at the top of the market and what they might mean: The Dodgers agreed to a deal with Kyle Tucker. The Mets gave Tucker a similar offer but then pivoted to signing Bo Bichette. Tucker had a long-term offer from the Blue Jays and Bichette from the Phillies but both went for the short-term deals. Is this some kind of paradigm shift or just unique circumstances? (1:50)
  • Could we ever predict this type of pivot in our Top 50 post in future years? (17:25)
  • How these deals impact parity, the upcoming expected lockout, collective bargaining agreement, etc. (34:35)
  • Bichette’s fit in the Mets’ position player mix (recorded prior to the Luis Robert Jr. trade) (1:04:25)
  • The Cardinals trading Nolan Arenado to the Diamondbacks (1:15:25)
  • The Red Sox signing Ranger Suárez (1:26:55)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Cubs Land Cabrera And Bregman, Remaining Free Agents, And Skubal’s Arbitration Filing – listen here
  • Contracts For Imai And Okamoto, And Thoughts On The Pirates And Giants – listen here
  • Three-Way Trade, Murakami’s Short-Term Deal, And Willson Contreras To Boston – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of David Banks, Imagn Images

Mets Sign Bo Bichette

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January 20: Bichette’s physical is complete and the Mets have officially announced the signing. They’ll hold a press conference on Wednesday afternoon to introduce their new star.

January 16: The Mets wasted little time in changing gears after missing out on the offseason’s top free agent. They’ve reportedly agreed to a massive three-year, $126MM contract with free agent infielder Bo Bichette. The Vayner Sports client can opt out of the contract after this season and after the 2027 campaign, and if he chooses to do so he’ll pick up an additional $5MM bonus. The contract does not contain any deferred money and affords Bichette a full no-trade clause.

It’s a stunning and near-immediate pivot for a Mets club that is barely 12 hours removed from losing out on Kyle Tucker, who just last night went to the Dodgers. Los Angeles outbid the Mets’ reported four-year, $220MM deal with a four-year, $240MM contract that gives Tucker two opt-out opportunities (post-2027 and post-2028). Having missed on that big swing, the Mets now pivot to the market’s next-best bat and next-best all-around free agent, bringing Bichette in on a $42MM annual value that ties Zack Wheeler for the sixth-largest in MLB history.

In landing Bichette, the Mets are not only pivoting from Tucker in arguably the most notable way possible — they’re also keeping him from a division rival that had emerged as the ostensible frontrunner. Bichette met with the Phillies earlier this week, and made him a seven-year offer worth around $200MM. They believed they were close to a deal last night, but the Tucker decision prompted a pivot from the Mets, who swooped in and stole him from their rivals. Bichette now lands a mammoth annual value that could grow even further (via that $5MM bonus) if he opts out and returns to the market next winter, ahead of what would still be only his age-29 season.

Though the fit isn’t necessarily as clean as Tucker would have been for a Mets club that already had a deep infield and was lacking in outfielders, Bichette adds a clear plus bat to manager Carlos Mendoza’s lineup. The 27-year-old (28 in March) has been a well above-average hitter in all but one of his seven major league campaigns — a 2024 season that was cut short by multiple calf injuries and a broken finger standing as the lone exception.

Bichette hit just .225/.277/.322 in 80 games during that awful 2024 campaign. He not only bounced back in 2025 but turned in arguably the best performance of his career on a rate basis, slashing .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs in 628 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+ (134), it was Bichette’s best season since his late call-up during the 2019 campaign (MLB’s juiced-ball season).

Even on its surface, Bichette’s 2025 season looks excellent. It doesn’t tell the tale of his finish, though, which had both positives and one very obvious negative. Bichette actually had a tepid start to his 2025 campaign. The underlying batted-ball data through his first month-plus was strong, but he hit just .275/.316/.363 through the first week of May. From that point forth, Bichette caught fire. Over his next 457 plate appearances, he laid waste to opposing pitchers at a .325/.372/.528 clip. That was 50% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+, and even that doesn’t fully do justice to Bichette’s jaw-dropping summer; over his final 238 plate appearances, the second-generation All-Star went supernova with a .381/.437/.591 slash (187 wRC+).

Unfortunately for both Bichette and the Blue Jays, that previously mentioned “very obvious negative” struck in early September when he suffered a sprained posterior cruciate ligament in his knee and missed the remainder of the regular season. He was also inactive for the early rounds of postseason play, only returning in the World Series. Bichette was clearly hobbled during the Fall Classic, limping to first base with ’88 Gibson-esque speed when putting the ball in play and displaying a lack of range at a new position: second base. Bichette’s shortstop glovework has been panned for years, and the Jays took the downtime as an opportunity to shift the defensively superior Andres Gimenez over to shortstop in his absence.

Despite the clearly injured knee, Bichette’s bat didn’t miss a beat in the World Series. He went 8-for-23 with seven singles and a titanic three-run homer off Shohei Ohtani in Game 7 of the World Series. Had the Jays’ bullpen managed to hold the lead, that would-be game-winner would have trailed only Joe Carter’s walk-off blast in franchise lore. Of course, that’s not how the game turned out, but Bichette’s 442-foot bomb still served to further underscore that even at less than 100%, he was a clear impact bat.

Bichette now carries a lifetime .294/.337/.469 batting line with him to Queens. He’s been 20-35% better than an average hitter every season of his career with the exception of that 2024 outlier, and this past season’s 14.5% strikeout rate was a career-low. He couples those plus-plus contact skills with above-average power and high-end batted-ball data; Bichette averaged 91 mph off the bat this past season (72nd percentile), and his 48.8% hard-hit rate sat in the 83rd percentile of big league hitters.

The question for Bichette and the Mets is how well he can handle a move to third base. His shortstop deficiencies were largely due to sub-par range. He doesn’t have a plus throwing arm necessarily, but it’s closer to average — at least in terms of the average velocity on his throws, as measured by Statcast — than was the case with his bottom-of-the-scale lateral movement. Bichette averaged 82.3 mph on his throws across the diamond last year — below par in MLB but still an upgrade (at least in terms of pure arm strength) over the man he’ll be replacing at the hot corner, Brett Baty (81.2 mph). Bichette may not be a plus defender at third, but even average defense coupled with his bat and good health would result in All-Star output.

Baty could now bounce between multiple positions. He’s played second base and left field in the past, and the Mets would surely be open to experimenting with him at first base, too. The designated hitter slot provides more opportunities for all. It’s a similar range of possibilities to the one faced by Jorge Polanco, who inked a two-year, $40MM deal last month. Polanco will reportedly be used extensively at first base and designated hitter despite having virtually no prior first base experience.

For a team that has preached run prevention for much of the offseason, lining up with Bichette at third base and Polanco/Baty at first probably isn’t how they drew things up originally — but the offseason is a layered beast that rarely unfolds in alignment with even the best-laid plans. Even if the Mets’ infield defense (and outfield defense, for that matter) is lacking, it’ll be solid up the middle thanks to Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien. It should also be a highly productive offensive unit — particularly if Semien’s bat can bounce back at all.

Of course, the addition of Bichette also makes a potential trade of Baty — and several other infielders — more likely. Clubs seeking third base help include the Mariners, Angels and Pirates (as explored at length yesterday), among others. Any could show interest in Baty, Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuña and/or Ronny Mauricio. Acuña, Vientos and Mauricio have all reportedly been available throughout the offseason anyhow. Some form of move seems likely, especially when considering both Acuña and Vientos are out of minor league options and looking to bounce back from poor seasons.

From a payroll vantage point, the Bichette contract is all the more staggering. Not only is the $42MM annual value the sixth-largest ever, it’s also only a fraction of what the Mets will actually have to pay due to this signing. New York was already on the cusp of the top tier of luxury penalization. Bichette catapults them $33MM north of that final cutoff point, per RosterResource’s estimates. They’ll pay a 95% tax on the first roughly $9MM of his annual value and a full-freight 110% tax on the remaining $33MM. Assuming an even distribution of his $126MM over the three-year term, the Mets would be paying more than $86MM for Bichette in 2026 alone. If he triggers that $5MM bonus upon opting out next winter, that’d also be subject to a 110% tax, bringing the Mets’ total bill on Bichette to about $97MM for just one year.

Moreover, the signing underscores the minimal amount that many big-market, CBT-paying clubs care about paying the 110% tax on short-term deals marquee players. The Dodgers’ signing of Tucker — just as will be the case with Bichette’s deal — has rekindled public outcry for a salary cap, but the players will likely only use these deals to illustrate the discrepancy between the middle and upper class of free agents; the union will surely argue that a cap would only further expand that gap and point out that half the money paid by CBT offenders is redistributed to other teams (in addition to standard revenue-sharing). That won’t fly with small-market owners, who’ll argue that they can’t compete with this type of expenditure. Both sides will dig in their heels.

It’s also fair to wonder whether this is a short-term blip or a burgeoning trend. Even big-market clubs seem increasingly against long-term contracts. For years, it was the Dodgers who tended to prefer short-term, high-AAV deals. But we’ve now seen the Mets limit their Tucker offer to four years and go three super-premium years on Bichette — while also declining to go beyond three years for Pete Alonso or Edwin Diaz. The Red Sox clearly prefer the trade market to free agency and surprised onlookers by even extending to five years to sign Ranger Suárez. The Yankees have reportedly been stuck on five years for their offer to Cody Bellinger while he seeks a seven-year term. Giants ownership publicly voiced an aversion to signing any pitchers to long-term contracts.

If baseball is indeed moving more toward NBA-style contracts — short term, ultra-high annual value — it’d mark a dramatic shift for a sport whose top players have overwhelmingly (albeit not always) preferred the stability of long-term arrangements, even if that means sacrificing some money on an annual basis. Time will tell, but that will all factor into both parties’ approach at the negotiating table next winter in an offseason that is widely expected to be impacted by a lockout and transaction freeze.

Turning back to the teams directly impacted by today’s signing, the Mets will part with their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft as well as $1MM of space from next year’s bonus pool for international amateur free agents. That’s due to the fact that Bichette declined a $22.025MM qualifying offer. By that same token, the Blue Jays will be compensated with an extra pick. That selection will come after the fourth round of this summer’s draft — the lowest possible compensation — due to Toronto’s status as a luxury tax payor.

For the Jays, parting with Bichette has at least seemed possible throughout the winter but began to look more certain once they signed star NPB third baseman Kazuma Okamoto and plugged him into an already crowded infield. There was still some room for Bichette to return, but Toronto’s focus has reportedly been on Tucker. With Bichette now formally out of the picture, they’re lined up to go with Ernie Clement at second base, Gimenez at shortstop and Okamoto/Addison Barger at third base.

As for the Phillies, they’ve made their own immediate pivot, upping their offer to give longtime catcher J.T. Realmuto the third year he’s sought. Less than two hours after the Bichette agreement broke, Realmuto and the Phillies had a new deal in place. Philadelphia had reportedly only been comfortable signing one of Bichette or Realmuto, with the recent preference seeming to be the former. A Bichette signing would likely have led to Realmuto going elsewhere and one of Alec Bohm or Bryson Stott being traded. Trading either feels less likely — but certainly not impossible — now that Bichette is in Queens and Realmuto is staying put.

Even Bichette himself will now have major questions to consider in the near-term future. With a big season, he’ll assuredly opt out of his contract, cashing in $47MM (or thereabouts, depending on the division of salary) for one year and re-entering the market as a 28-year-old who can’t receive a qualifying offer. If he can do that and prove himself capable of playing an average or better third base, he could come out hundreds of millions ahead. That’s far from a given, though, and he’ll need to make that decision against the backdrop of a looming work stoppage.

It’s a dizzying sequence of interwoven, high-priced payouts for star players — the ramifications of which will reach further than we can accurately predict at this time. It seems clear that the Mets have at least one move coming with regard to their infield glut, and they’re still in search of help both in the rotation and in the outfield. With Tucker and Bichette coming off the board within a matter of 15 hours, Cody Bellinger suddenly stands as the top position player available — possibly with several clubs now keying in on him and providing more pressure for the incumbent Yankees to bridge the gap between their five-year offer and his seven-year ask. Will Bellinger similarly pivot to a short-term, high-AAV contract? If so, will that be in the Bronx or with a new club?

Questions abound, and there are surely several moves yet to be made, but the Mets are a more talented and more dangerous team now than they were this time yesterday — even if it’s not due to the player they were originally targeting. Their pivot is likely only just beginning, but adding a prime-aged, multi-time All-Star who has twice led the American League in hits is a pretty good first step in a pivot.

Will Sammon of The Athletic first reported the agreement and contract length. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman added the total guarantee and no-trade clause. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic added details regarding the opt-outs and lack of deferrals. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported that Bichette was likely to play third base in Queens.

Phillies Notes: Bichette, Roster, Castellanos, Wheeler

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The Phillies formally announced their re-signing of catcher J.T. Realmuto this morning. Realmuto, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and manager Rob Thomson were all on hand for a media session conducted over Zoom shortly thereafter. Dombrowski, fielding questions regarding the reported pursuit of Bo Bichette and the late pivot back to Realmuto, candidly acknowledged that his club did indeed feel it was close to closing a deal with Bichette before the Mets jumped in following Kyle Tucker’s deal with the Dodgers.

“I can’t say that we ever thought it was done,” Dombrowski said when asked if he’d felt they had an agreement in place with Bichette. “We thought we were very close to having a deal done. We thought it was going to happen, but it wasn’t done. … Until you sign a memo of understanding, you don’t have a deal done — and we did not sign one of those. It wasn’t that we weren’t moving toward that direction. It isn’t that we didn’t think we were going to get there. But we just did not get to that point.”

The Bichette talks were serious enough that Dombrowski acknowledged informing Realmuto’s camp that they were likely to go in another direction and wouldn’t be able to make both signings happen at this time. When they got word of Bichette’s deal with the Mets, Dombrowski said he was back on the phone with Realmuto and his agent within an hour or so — his only interim call going to owner John Middleton, to keep him apprised of the situation. The veteran baseball operations executive conceded that it’s a “gut punch” anytime free agent or trade negotiations get to that stage and don’t culminate in a deal before adding, “you can’t just wallow in what took place” and that he had to simply “shake it off” and continue trying to improve his club. Notably, he added that the Phils were never interested in a short-term, opt-out-laden contract with Bichette.

Given that the Phillies were willing to offer a reported $190-200MM to Bichette over a seven-year term, it’s fair to wonder whether there might be some forthcoming additions. Realmuto, after all, commanded less than 25% of that sum in total. Dombrowski, however, at least strongly implied that his club is done with significant spending this winter. Asked about the lingering availability of impact names like Framber Valdez and Cody Bellinger, Dombrowski declined to get into specifics regarding any particular free agent but demurred to say:

“I really can’t speak to that, by the baseball rules — because they’re free agents — but I’d just say I think we’re content where we are at this point.”

With Realmuto back in the fold, the Phillies’ current payroll (as projected by RosterResource) sits just over $281MM. They’re at more than $317MM worth of luxury obligations, meaning they’d pay a 110% tax on any subsequent additions to the roster. Based on the Bichette pursuit, it seems Middleton was willing to extend further beyond the current price of the roster, but not that the Phillies have the proverbial money burning a hole in their pockets.

That doesn’t mean there isn’t room for some smaller-scale additions. Dombrowski alluded to the potential of bringing in some depth options for the rotation. He also candidly confirmed on the record that the team plans to move on from Nick Castellanos in some capacity. Castellanos is owed $20MM this season — the last of a five-year, $100MM contract signed in the 2021-22 offseason. Asked point-blank if he still “expect[s] to make a change of scenery [for Castellanos] before spring training opens,” Dombrowski replied: “Yes, we do. We still plan on doing that.”

A change of scenery has been presumed for months now. The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reported early in the winter that the Phils were likely to either trade or release Castellanos. The latter has seemed likelier all along, if only because finding a taker for even part of Castellanos’ salary is a tall order. The 33-year-old (34 in March) hit .250/.294/.400 with 17 home runs last season — about 10% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+. That lack of offensive help was coupled with more bottom-of-the-scale defense in the outfield, the second-worst walk rate and average exit velocity of his career, and the lowest hard-hit rate he’s ever posted.

It’s feasible that as spring draws nearer, the Phillies might find a buy-low taker willing to pay a few million of the deal. Even getting someone to take on $2MM of that remaining $20MM would actually trim $4.2MM off the Phillies’ 2026 budget, given the previously mentioned 110% tax they’re paying on every dollar over the top luxury threshold. Clubs like the Pirates, Reds and Royals have been looking for more bats all offseason and could theoretically roll the dice on a hopeful rebound. Other clubs could come calling if they incur some injuries in spring training. For now, Castellanos remains on the roster.

One other item of note from today’s media session included a brief update on injured ace Zack Wheeler. The 35-year-old righty underwent thoracic outlet surgery in late September, and a timeline on his return has been murky. That’s generally still true, but both Dombrowski and Thomson noted that Wheeler has been throwing from flat ground and is up to a distance of 90 feet. Thomson added that Wheeler had a “heavy” workload last week and is expected to be at the team’s spring complex for more throwing on Thursday.

“No timetable, but so far the reports have been good,” Thomson said of his veteran righty.

Wheeler was diagnosed with venous thoracic outlet syndrome late in the season. It’s an ominous injury but the less severe form of TOS (as opposed to neurogenic TOS). Venous TOS comes with blood clots that can be life threatening but, as D-backs righty Merrill Kelly explained to Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post several years ago, a “more straightforward” diagnosis and recovery. (Kelly pitched nearly a full season in 2021, the year after his venous TOS procedure, and has since done the best work of his career over the past four seasons.)

The original timetable for Wheeler was six to eight months, though every rehab process is unique and contingent upon the individual pitcher’s body. It’s encouraging that Wheeler appears to be on track, but the fact that he’s not yet working off a mound with only three weeks until pitchers and catchers report doesn’t bode well for hitting the shorter end of that window. A six-month return would’ve put Wheeler in games by late March, just prior to Opening Day. Eight months would set him back until around Memorial Day weekend. The Phillies will surely have plenty of updates as spring training progresses.

In Wheeler’s absence, the Philadelphia rotation will include Cy Young runner-up Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker. Longtime top prospect Andrew Painter is the current favorite for the fifth spot, but he has yet to make a major league debut and struggled in Triple-A last year during his return season from Tommy John surgery. Righties Yoniel Curet, Alan Rangel and Jean Cabrera are all on the 40-man roster, but none of that trio has a major league start under his belt. Adding at least one veteran swingman or starter, if not two, seems like a prudent course of action — even if it’s only on a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.

Phillies Reportedly Made Seven-Year Offer To Bo Bichette

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The Mets and Bo Bichette reportedly have a deal in place, a three-year deal with a huge average annual value and opt-outs after each season. It seems he almost went the more traditional route. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Phillies thought they were going to land Bichette with a $200MM deal over seven years until the Mets swooped in with their offer after losing Kyle Tucker to the Dodgers last night. Matt Gelb of The Athletic says the offer was between $190MM and $200MM.

The full breakdown of the offer from Philly isn’t known, so it’s hard to fully compare the two paths. For instance, the Philly offer may or may not have contained deferred money or opt-outs, which could change the perception of its value.

But the basic structure is more in line with expectations from the beginning of the offseason. Back in November, MLBTR predicted Bichette for a $208MM deal over eight years, an average annual value of $26MM. Philly’s offer, assuming no deferrals were involved, would have been a slightly lower guarantee but at a higher AAV of $28.6MM.

That kind of deal would have been in line with other deals received by All-Star middle infielders in recent years. Willy Adames, Dansby Swanson, Marcus Semien, Javier Báez and Trevor Story all received guarantees between $140MM and $182MM in recent years, on deals of either six or seven years in length.

Bichette has decided to go a different route and it’s understandable why he would. He is still quite young, only 27 years old, turning 28 in March. With this Mets deal, the specific structure hasn’t yet been reported, but it’s a $42MM average annual value. If he stays healthy and productive, he can bank more than 20% of what the Phils offered him in one year, then return to the open market in search of another long-term offer. If he has an injury-shortened season or his performance takes a downturn, he can decline his opt-out and continue earning at a high rate. Even if he plays out all three years of his deal with the Mets, he will have earned almost two thirds of the Philly offer. He’ll be going into his age-31 season and could look to make up the difference then.

He can also re-evaluate the spending environment more generally. The current collective bargaining agreement expires next winter. The industry is expecting a lockout, just as there was the last time a CBA expired, but that lockout resulted in gains for free agents. The competitive balance tax thresholds went up, which helped spur spending over the past few years. The owners are expected to push for a salary cap next winter but that’s nothing new for them. They’ve pushed for that before without the players agreeing to it, so it’s entirely possible the players make gains in the CBT area again.

Both Tucker and Bichette decided to go the short-term, high-AAV route. Usually, top free agents go out looking for the security of a long-term deal but pivot to these kinds of arrangements when they don’t find what they’re looking for. In at least Bichette’s case, it appears he didn’t have to go this way but chose to. It’s possible Tucker did as well. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports that he had long-term offers, getting up to even ten years. No specifics have been reported on those offers but they may have come from the Blue Jays. Recent reporting has suggested they were more willing to go long-term than the Mets or Dodgers.

It’s difficult to say if this is indicative of some sort of trend from the team perspective. Ultimately, we’re talking about two data points here with Tucker and Bichette. It’s understandable why the teams would want to avoid long-term commitments. Signing a top free agent often involves offering him a longer deal than other teams are willing to do. Those later years can be painful as a player pushes into his late 30s and his production declines.

But convincing a player to go the short-term route usually means cranking up the AAV levels. The teams who can most afford to do that usually have high payrolls to begin with, and therefore high tax bills. With the Tucker deal, the Dodgers are not going only to pay him a $57.1MM AAV, factoring in deferrals. They’re also going to pay a 110% tax on that AAV, leading to a tax bill of almost $63MM. That means they’re valuing Tucker’s 2026 campaign around $120MM. Unless they dip below the top tax bracket in 2027, the same will be true for that season.

The Dodgers seemingly preferred this route due to various circumstances. They have a relatively old roster, with many of their core players in their mid-30s. They presumably know that they can’t field a successful team like that forever and need younger players to step up. Many of their top prospects are outfielders who have not yet reached Triple-A and are therefore still a bit over the horizon. Tucker’s short-term deal is therefore a perfect bridge to that next era.

For the Mets, president of baseball operations David Stearns got his job with the club already having a lot of money on the books and he seemingly has a reluctance to adding to it. Despite having access to Steve Cohen’s checkbook, he has mostly capped the club at three-year deals. An exception was made for Juan Soto’s epic deal, though he was a special case as a free agent going into his age-26 season.

Apart from Soto, Stearns hasn’t given anyone a deal longer than three years. They reportedly stretched a bit by offering Tucker four years, though he took a very similar offer from the Dodgers. The Mets then pivoted to give a strong three-year deal to Bichette. It seems the club would rather spend more money now, both in terms of salary and taxes, in order to not bog down the long-term picture with deals for aging players. The full details of the Bichette deal with the Mets haven’t been released but the Mets will probably pay more than $40MM in annual taxes, on top of what Bichette will receive.

That’s consistent with some of their other pursuits. They swapped out the five years remaining on Brandon Nimmo’s deal for Marcus Semien, signed for three years but at a higher rate. They seemed unwilling to go beyond three years for either Pete Alonso or Edwin Díaz, who both signed elsewhere. The Mets have also been on the lookout for starting pitching but reportedly have a preference to avoid long-term deals there as well.

It’s unclear if these kinds of preferences are going to be fairly permanent or if they’re due to current circumstances. TheMets have a decent veteran contingent on the roster but are waiting for younger guys like Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat, Carson Benge, Jett Williams and others to form a new young core. Perhaps as those players become established at the big league level, and big-money contracts expire, the front office will be more willing to make long-term investments.

Whether or not this is a trend will surely depend on the upcoming collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA, negotiated during the 2021-22 lockout, saw the tax brackets get pushed up noticeably. That has seemingly worked out fairly well for players, as spending has stayed robust since that CBA was signed. Some teams will argue that this kind of spending is why a salary cap is necessary but they benefit from the current arrangement. Half of the tax money collected from big-spending clubs gets redistributed to other teams, alongside other revenue-sharing payments.

The players seem unlikely to agree to a salary cap regardless. They would also likely point out that a cap system would probably still see marquee free agents paid well, whereas the middle tier and lower free agents would be more likely squeezed out.

If this does turn out to be a trend, it will be notable to watch it play out in the long run. Perhaps onerous deals like those for Kris Bryant or Anthony Rendon will become less common but players who stay productive could earn far more by continually commanding premium salaries.

The Phillies were less keen on the Dodgers/Mets path. Gelb reports they were not willing to offer Bichette a short-term, high-AAV deal because of their tax situation. Like the Dodgers and Mets, they are repeat tax payors in the top CBT bracket, which means a 110% tax on additional spending. They therefore preferred to make a longer offer, signing Bichette into his mid-30s at a lower annual rate.

It seems they’ve already pivoted and spent the money that Bichette didn’t take. They reportedly have a three-year, $45MM agreement in place to bring back J.T. Realmuto. The $15MM AAV on that deal is well south of what they offered Bichette, but the Bichette deal was likely going to lead to a trade of third baseman Alec Bohm, who is going to make $10.2MM this year. The Phils will be sticking with Realmuto and Bohm for roughly the same annual price as they would have paid to Bichette.

It would have been an interesting alternate path for the Phils. A seven-year commitment would have added another long-term deal for a club that already has a number of those. But on the other hand, Bichette would have been a welcome infusion of youth. Most of the core players on the Phillies are both in their mid-30s and signed long term. Tagging in the 28-year-old Bichette would have counteracted that but he has gone a different path, leaving the Phils to stick with Realmuto and a very similar club to last year’s.

Photo courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images

Red Sox Rumors: Suarez, Bichette, Valdez, Rotation

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The Red Sox are still reeling from Alex Bregman’s departure for the Cubs but have minimal time to lick their wounds. The free agent and trade markets have begun to pick up some steam, and whatever Boston’s pivot from losing Bregman will be, it’ll need to come together before terribly long. The Bregman deal and the trade of Nolan Arenado from St. Louis to Arizona both figure to get the ball rolling with regard to the infield market. There are also indications that the market for top free agent Kyle Tucker is gaining steam as well. Even though Tucker understandably isn’t a target for a Red Sox team that’s deep in lefty-swinging outfielders, reports of him nearing a decision only give further credence to the idea that the market will accelerate with pitchers and catchers just a month from reporting to spring training.

It’s not entirely clear how Boston will look to counteract Bregman’s defection just yet. Both Bo Bichette and Eugenio Suarez have been mentioned as possible fallback options. The fit in either case makes sense. Both swing right-handed and have batted-ball profiles that would fit well at Fenway Park. Suarez could step into Bregman’s spot at third base. Bichette could play third base or second base. Former top prospects Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell could factor in at whichever of those two positions is not filled externally.

Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive provide some context in their latest column, as does Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Per McAdam and Cotillo, the Red Sox showed preliminary interest in Suarez earlier in the offseason but were first waiting to see how the markets for not only Bregman but also Ketel Marte and Jorge Polanco played out. Suarez’s camp is operating under the assumption that there’s some interest and will soon be told whether the Sox plan to make a serious bid, per the report. Speier’s report generally backs up that line of thinking; he writes that the Red Sox have viewed Suarez as a fallback and had not seriously engaged with his camp prior to Bregman’s signing.

Suarez, 35 in July, popped 49 homers last season but hit .228/.298/.526 overall. He once graded as a strong defender at the hot corner but has seen his defensive grades slip as he’s aged into his mid-30s — as is often the case. His thunderous right-handed power and pull-happy approach make him a natural fit at Fenway Park, where he could pummel the Green Monster with line drives and clear it with regularity, but Suarez finished the season on a down note; his production waned after a trade from the D-backs to the Mariners last summer. After hitting .248/.320/.576 with a 26.8% strikeout rate for the Snakes, he posted a .189/.255/.428 slash with a 36% strikeout rate in 53 games for the M’s.

At the outset of free agency, MLBTR predicted a three-year deal worth a bit more than $20MM annually for Suarez. That contract seemed likely if a team were to make him a priority. That he’s been viewed as something of a fallback to sluggers like Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso, as well as top infield free agents like Bregman and Bichette, would at least seem to imply that a two-year deal may now be likelier. A two-year contract certainly would align with the Red Sox’ apparent aversion to long-term deals for players in their 30s, but Boston will face competition in signing him. The Mariners remain open to a reunion, and the Pirates, who’ve spent the offseason searching for power upgrades, have interest as well.

The Sox will face competition with regard to Bichette, too — if they plan to pursue him at all. Bichette is 27 and won’t turn 28 until March. His age makes him a candidate to sign the type of long-term deal the Red Sox have been reluctant to put forth to free agents. Both the MassLive and Globe reports cast significant doubt on whether the Red Sox would actually engage in a legitimate bidding war with a team like the Phillies, who met with Bichette just yesterday and are far more comfortable doling out long-term contracts (at least based on recent history).

Depending on how or even if the Red Sox end up accomplishing their goal of adding another hitter, a reallocation of the funds previously earmarked for Bregman could come into play. Both MassLive and the Globe suggest that a pivot to the rotation is something the Sox could now pursue. Speier suggests that the Sox are “open-minded” with regard to the position another impact player could fill. That could mean the rotation or, speculatively speaking, perhaps a run at improving the catching corps. J.T. Realmuto is still a free agent, and the Phillies reportedly don’t think they can sign both Bichette and Realmuto.

If the Sox pivot to the rotation, there are still some notable names on the market. Tim Healey of the Boston Globe reports that as far back as November, Red Sox brass had an in-person sit-down with Framber Valdez’s camp. That meeting came at the GM Meetings, where Valdez reportedly met with at least the Giants and Orioles as well.

Valdez, 32 next year, might not have been a top target after the Red Sox acquired Sonny Gray and pivoted to upgrading the lineup. However, he’d fit the stated goal of adding a No. 2 starter for a playoff series more directly than Gray. A postseason rotation with options including Garrett Crochet, Valdez, Gray and Brayan Bello would be quite strong, and it’s always possible that a touted young arm like Payton Tolle or Connelly Early forces his way into the mix.

Valdez became a free agent for the first time this offseason when he rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros, the only organization he’s ever known. He’s topped 190 innings in three of the past four seasons, pitching to a collective 3.21 ERA in 767 2/3 frames along the way. Valdez’s strikeout rate, walk rate and especially his 60% ground-ball rate have all been far better than the league average during that four-year span.

Signing Valdez, however, would require the Red Sox to punt their second- and fifth-highest selections in this summer’s draft, as well as $1MM of space in next year’s bonus pool for international free agent amateurs. The same is true of longtime Phillies southpaw Ranger Suarez and longtime D-backs righty Zac Gallen, both of whom rejected QOs as well. Whether they’d make those future concessions while simultaneously easing their reluctance to commit long-term deals to veterans in their 30s is an open question, but the Red Sox have now missed out on Bregman, Alonso and Schwarber in free agency, and top trade target Marte doesn’t sound like he’ll be moved at all. They’ll need to find a new plan of attack in the coming days, particularly with offseason activity picking back up following the annual holiday-season lull.

Poll: Will The Dodgers Add A Big Bat In Free Agency?

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Outside of a surprise strike to land star closer Edwin Diaz during the Winter Meetings, it’s been an unusually quiet offseason for the Dodgers. On some level, that’s understandable. The team had no core players depart in free agency this offseason, and they just won their second consecutive World Series title back in November. While Los Angeles has spent the past few offseasons building up a juggernaut by adding players like Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow, there’s less urgency to continue piling on star talent at this point.

Coming off two World Series championships, it would be understandable for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and the rest of the team’s front office to be content bringing back mostly the same roster in 2026. Many signs point to them doing just that, as comments from team personnel have acknowledged the club’s aging roster and the importance of bringing along some younger players for the sake of the team’s long-term viability. Clayton Kershaw has retired. Freddie Freeman will play this year at age 36. Mookie Betts is headed into his age-33 season coming off the worst season of his Hall of Fame career. Even younger members of the team’s core like Ohtani (31), Snell (33), Glasnow (32), and Will Smith (31) are all on the wrong side of 30 at this point.

With many of core veterans under contract for years to come beyond their respective primes, even the mighty Dodgers have to think twice about adding another long-term, nine-figure contract to the books. At the outset of the offseason, many assumed that Los Angeles would once again be a top player in the market for the winter’s stars, like Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette. As the offseason dragged on, however, it quickly became clear that L.A. wasn’t interested in jumping the market for a top free agent as they have in the past.

The team has some exciting prospects poised to reach the majors in the coming years. Infielder Alex Freeland is already arguably MLB ready, and signing an infielder like Bichette could wind up blocking him long-term. Star outfield prospects Zyhir Hope and Josue De Paula are further away from the majors but could debut later this year and are both consensus top-50 prospects in the sport. Even as the team’s projected outfield lacks much impact (with Teoscar Hernandez and Andy Pages set to take up regular roles alongside some combination of Tommy Edman, Alex Call, and Hyeseong Kim), it’s easy to see why the team might hesitate about signing Tucker to a massive contract.

All of those considerations still remain for the Dodgers, but that hasn’t stopped them from coming up more frequently in the rumor mill for players’ markets as the offseason has progressed. Tucker remains available on the market and has a relatively small number of suitors outside of L.A., with the Blue Jays and Mets being the other teams most frequently connected to him. Bichette’s market has kicked up in recent days with the Phillies, Red Sox, and Blue Jays among the teams involved on some level or another, while the Mets and Yankees are two of the few remaining realistic landing spots for Cody Bellinger.

The Dodgers have appeared to remain on the periphery of all three of those markets, and appear ready to pounce if any of them express willingness to sign a shorter-term deal at a high average annual value. Whether that will happen remains to be seen but the likelihood of such a deal increases as Spring Training approaches. The Phillies, for example, would need to do quite a bit of maneuvering to fit Bichette into the roster and budget plans. That figures to include trading Alec Bohm, which could be difficult to pull off late in the offseason once teams have mostly settled their rosters. Meanwhile, a team like the Red Sox or Yankees could take themselves out of the market for help on offense by swinging a trade for a bat like Isaac Paredes or Brendan Donovan.

If a star free agent finds themselves without much of a long-term market and needs to pivot towards a shorter deal, the Dodgers appear very well positioned to make a play. Edman’s positional flexibility would allow the Dodgers to accommodate a short-term addition to either their infield or outfield, with the super utility man getting regular reps on the grass if Bichette is brought in or handling the keystone if either Bellinger or Tucker joins the organization. What’s more, it’s hard to imagine a more attractive club to spend a year with than L.A. given the team’s star power and winning culture. Helping the Dodgers to a three-peat with a strong 2026 campaign would be the exact sort of profile booster that a star free agent like Tucker or Bichette would be hoping for on a pillow contract.

What do MLBTR readers think? Will the Dodgers swoop in and snag one of the remaining top bats in free agency, or will they head into 2026 with more or less the same roster they won the World Series with last year? Have your say in the poll below:

Yankees Have Shown Interest In Nico Hoerner, Luis Robert Jr.

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At the start of the offseason, it felt inevitable that the Yankees and Cody Bellinger would reunite. That may still happen but it seems up in the air at the moment. Talks between the two sides have seemingly stalled out. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports today that both sides have been exploring alternatives lately. Bellinger has interest from other clubs. Meanwhile, the Yankees have been touching base with free agents Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker, who they have been connected to previously. They’ve also checked in on trade candidates Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox and Nico Hoerner of the Cubs. The Yanks’ interest in Hoerner was first reported by Pat Ragazzo of SI.

Bellinger spent 2025 in the Bronx and it seemed to go well. He hit 29 home runs and slashed .27/.334/.480 for a wRC+ 125. He stole 13 bases and played all three outfield slots as well as first base. He appeared to be especially comfortable in Yankee Stadium, slashing .302/.365/.544 there. He opted out of the final season of his contract, taking a $5MM buyout and leaving a $25MM salary on the table. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Bellinger to have enough juice for a five-year, $140MM deal.

It was reported on New Year’s Day that the Yanks had made an offer to Bellinger. A few days later came reports of a second offer. No details of either offer were initially revealed but further reporting indicated the sides weren’t close to a deal. Subsequent reporting has put the Yankee offer at five years and over $30MM annually, putting the guarantee somewhere in the vicinity of $155MM. That hasn’t been enough to get a deal done with Bellinger hoping to get to seven years.

It seems the two sides have taken a break from the staredown to look elsewhere. Heyman says they continued talking over the weekend but each party is considering alternatives. Heyman mentions the Dodgers, Giants and Mets as clubs believed to have interest in Bellinger. Those clubs have all been tied to Bellinger via rumors earlier this winter but are imperfect fits. All three could use outfield help to varying degrees but they also appear to be trying to avoid long-term commitments at the moment.

Since the hold-up between the Yankees and Bellinger appears to be the length of their offer, it’s hard to envision any of these clubs outbidding the Yankees. Any of the three could perhaps change their stance to take advantage of this opportunity but it also could be more likely that those clubs would prefer to get Bellinger via another short-term, opt-out laden deal. It’s unclear if he would want to do that after going down that road a couple of years ago, but it presumably depends on where things go in the next few weeks.

The Blue Jays have also been connected to Bellinger this winter but it seems they are more focused on Bichette and Tucker with Bellinger perhaps a backup plan. The Cubs were also connected to their old friend Bellinger this winter but signing Alex Bregman is presumably their big splash of the winter.

For the Yankees, they could perhaps increase their offer but are also seeing what else is on the menu. With Hoerner, it’s unclear if the Cubs have any interest in trading him but he has been in rumors and it’s arguable they should consider it. Hoerner is a good player but is a free agent after 2026. With the Cubs recently signing Bregman, their infield is now a bit cluttered. Putting Bregman at third bumps Matt Shaw to the bench.

If they wanted to, the Cubs could trade Hoerner and then move Shaw to second base. That would declutter things a bit and also should bring back something of note. Hoerner’s $12MM salary this year is very affordable considering his production. He doesn’t hit a ton of home runs but rarely strikes out, relying on his contact, speed and defense to provide value. It’s a combination that works, as FanGraphs has credited him with 3.9 wins above replacement or more in each of the past four years.

It could also give the Cubs a bit more breathing room in terms of the competitive balance tax. The Cubs went narrowly above the CBT in 2024 but have otherwise stayed under the line in each season from 2021 to the present.

RosterResource currently estimates them for a CBT number of just over $243MM, putting them less than a million from this year’s line. A team’s CBT number isn’t calculated until the end of the year, so in-season moves can move a club up or down. If the Cubs want to avoid the tax in 2026, creating some space now could be something they consider to give them more ability to make moves at the deadline.

For the Yankees, Hoerner wouldn’t help replace Bellinger in the outfield but he should make the team better. Though he has largely been a second baseman for the Cubs, he is considered good enough to be a shortstop. He has just been on the other side of the bag in deference to Dansby Swanson.

The Yanks have an uncertain shortstop situation at present, hence their previous connection to Bichette. Anthony Volpe is coming off a down year and may not be ready for Opening Day 2026 as he recovers from shoulder surgery. José Caballero currently projects as the top shortstop for the early season, though he has mostly been a utility guy in his career. If the Yanks add a shortstop, then he could return to that role.

The thinking with signing Bichette had a couple of attractions. He could upgrade the shortstop position now, then second base in the future. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is currently the club’s second baseman but he is slated for free agency after the upcoming season. With the Yanks having shortstop prospect George Lombard Jr. waiting in the wings, Bichette could cover short for a year and then slide to the other side of the bag with either Lombard or a resurgent Volpe at short.

Hoener wouldn’t be quite the same acquisition, barring an extension, as he is only signed through 2026. Still, that would likely have appeal for the Yankees in a different way. They could upgrade the middle infield for now without making a huge commitment. After 2026, depending on how things go with Lombard, Volpe, Hoerner and Chisholm, they could then decide about how to invest in the middle infield for the long term.

They would, however, have to give the Cubs something of value in return. As mentioned, it’s unclear if the Cubs have any interest at all in flipping Hoerner. Even if they do, they would presumably be looking for some kind of win-now upgrade, likely on the pitching staff. With the Yanks looking for pitching help themselves, it may be challenging to line up a deal that makes sense for both sides.

As for Robert, he is surely available but also tricky to value. He has shown borderline MVP upside but is coming off two years marred by injuries and underperformance. In 2023, he hit 38 home runs and stole 20 bases, slashed .264/.315/.542 and got strong grades for his center field defense. But since then, he has made a number of trips to the injured list while slashing .223/.288/.372 for a wRC+ of 84.

The White Sox are rebuilding and will surely trade Robert but are seemingly hoping to trade him at peak value. He wasn’t moved in 2025 even though it was the final guaranteed year of his contract. They picked up a $20MM option for 2026. Teams like the Yankees and others might want to buy low but the Sox are likely motivated to wait. After his down year, it would make sense to hold him until the deadline, with the hope of him getting back in form and therefore increasing his trade value.

The Yankee outfield currently projects to include Aaron Judge and Trent Grisham in two spots. If the season started today, Jasson Domínguez and Spencer Jones would battle for a third. Domínguez is coming off a rough year in 2025, with an average bat and poor defense. Jones hit 35 home runs in the minors last year but also struck out 35.4% of the time, creating some doubt about how viable his bat will be in the majors.

Acquiring Hoerner wouldn’t do much to change that picture but perhaps the Yanks would be more comfortable with the uncertainty of the Domínguez/Jones combo with a stronger infield. Bringing back Bellinger, signing Tucker or acquiring Robert would strengthen the outfield group, bumping Domínguez to more of a part-time role and keeping Jones in Triple-A.

There are many moving pieces here as the offseason moves into the final weeks before pitchers and catchers report to spring training. Tucker, Bichette and Bellinger are the top position players still out there, with a lot of overlapping interest. The Jays are seemingly in on all three, considered by some to be the favorites for Tucker but a Bichette reunion also makes sense. Like Bellinger, Bichette is considering other options. He is meeting with the Phillies today, although that is a bit complicated, as Philadelphia would seemingly have to move on from both J.T. Realmuto and Alec Bohm to fit Bichette onto the roster and into the budget. The Red Sox just missed on Bregman and could turn to Bichette but they don’t seem too keen on big long-term investments. The Dodgers, Giants and Mets may be looking to get opportunistic if a nice short-term opportunity becomes possible.

It’s a bit of a game of musical chairs with the Yankees and Bellinger some of the key participants. Bregman just found a seat in Chicago but others will have to sit soon. Pitchers and catchers report to spring training in about a month, so the music is slowing down.

Photo courtesy of Sergio Estrada, Imagn Images

Phillies To Meet With Bo Bichette

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3:42pm: The meeting between the Phillies and Bichette is scheduled for next Monday, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

3:07pm: The Bo Bichette market apparently has a new entrant. Matt Gelb, Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark of The Athletic report that the Phillies have scheduled a meeting with the free agent infielder and his representatives at Vayner Sports that will take place within the next few days. Philadelphia’s interest “is legitimate,” per the report — borne out of Bichette’s willingness to move off of shortstop and a protracted stare-down between the Phils and free agent catcher J.T. Realmuto, who has yet to sign. Gelb and Stark note that a deal between the Phillies and Bichette would all but close the door on Realmuto’s time in Philly and could also lead to a trade of third baseman Alec Bohm.

Bichette, still just 27 (28 in March), not only enjoyed a rebound 2025 season after an injury-wrecked 2024 showing — he turned in what was arguably the best all-around season of his career. In 628 trips to the plate, he slashed .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs. His 6.4% walk rate, while still a couple points below league-average, was the best of his career in a full season, as was his 14.5% strikeout rate.

Bichette’s summer, in particular, was something to behold. He got out to a decent but fairly pedestrian start before heating up in May and catching absolute fire midsummer. From July 6 through season’s end, Bichette went supernova with a .381/.437/.591 slash in 238 plate appearances. He homered seven times, piled up an outrageous 24 doubles, walked at an 8.8% clip and fanned in only 11.3% of his plate appearances. Push back to mid-June, and Bichette closed out his season with 330 plate appearances of .350/.395/.538 production.

Of course, “season’s end” is a relative term in Bichette’s case. He suffered a sprained posterior cruciate ligament on Sept. 6 and did not return for the final three weeks of the regular season. Bichette spent the early rounds of the playoffs resting and rehabbing that balky knee. He was cleared for a return in the World Series, and while he was clearly moving at nowhere close to 100%, his bat remained unfazed. Bichette went 8-for-23 in 27 plate appearances and crushed what had the makings of an iconic, go-ahead, three-run homer off Shohei Ohtani in Game 7 of the World Series — a no-doubter blast that would’ve proven to be a game-winner had the bullpen held onto Toronto’s lead.

Critically, Bichette played second base when he took the field during the World Series. It was his first appearance at the position since his minor league days, but the willingness to defer to a superior defender at shortstop (Andres Gimenez) undoubtedly helps Bichette’s case in free agency. The primary knock on him for some time has been that he’s a well below-average defender at shortstop.

The Phillies, per The Athletic’s report, would likely use Bichette at third base. It’s fair to wonder whether he has the arm for the hot corner, given that Statcast pegged his arm strength in just the 36th percentile of big leaguers this past season. Bichette averaged 82.3 mph on his throws to first base, tying him with current Phillies shortstop Trea Turner in that regard. It’s a below-average mark but also not a death knell on his chances of playing a passable third base. That 82.3 mph average also ties fellow free agent Alex Bregman, and it’s actually a half-mile faster than Philadelphia’s incumbent third baseman, Bohm.

Most problematic for the Phillies would be how Bichette could fit into the payroll. RosterResource projects the Phils for a $266MM payroll. That’s down from their $284MM Opening Day mark from last year, but Bichette would push them beyond that point (barring some kind of backloaded or deferred contract). And while the actual cash payroll is down from last year, the team’s luxury tax payroll is not. The Phils have a projected $301MM of CBT obligations, per those same RosterResource estimates. That means they’d be taxed at a 95% rate for the first $3MM of Bichette’s average annual value and a 110% clip on the remainder.

In essence, Bichette would cost the Phillies close to double his annual salary — at least in year one of the contract. That number could decline in 2026, when Nick Castellanos, Taijuan Walker, Jesus Luzardo, Jose Alvarado, Adolis Garcia, Edmundo Sosa and Bohm (if he’s not traded) are all off the books. Philadelphia has “only” about $187MM of luxury tax obligations in 2027, but that’s before factoring in a notable arbitration class (headlined by Jhoan Duran and Bryson Stott) and before filling any of the vacancies created by that slate of departures. It’s easy to see that number ticking up in a hurry.

Still, the long-term payroll in Philadelphia is probably a bit cleaner than most would expect for a team with so many high-priced veterans. Zack Wheeler’s huge $42MM salary only runs through 2027. Harper’s annual salary is already relatively low for a player of his caliber, and it drops to $22MM in the final three seasons of his contract (2029-31). Harper, Turner, Cristopher Sanchez, Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Nola are the only players currently on long-term deals beyond the 2027 season, and Schwarber is the only member of that group who’ll be paid more than $27.5MM annually from 2028 onward. The Phillies have just over $117MM in guaranteed money on the books in 2028. Signing Bichette would really only inflate the 2026 payroll to problematic levels, and the Phils could backload or defer his contract to help offset some of that bloat.

Bichette landing with the Phillies would create a fascinating series of ripple effects. Teams that have been seeking help at third base (e.g. Pirates, D-backs, Mariners, Red Sox) might find a more willing trade partner in Philadelphia than they have in prior months, when Bichette was not under consideration by the Phillies’ front office. Bohm just agreed to a $10.2MM contract for the 2026 season and is a free agent next year.

Philadelphia would also need to make a catching acquisition. Rafael Marchan and Garrett Stubbs are the only others on the roster. Gelb and Stark report that Minnesota’s Ryan Jeffers — a free agent following the 2026 season — has been of interest to the Phillies in the past. However, the Twins have signaled that they’re aiming to be competitive in 2026 and won’t trade stars like Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton. Would they truly make Jeffers available, in light of that decision? Time will tell.

If not Jeffers (or Realmuto), the options are few and far between. Victor Caratini is a free agent and could be the most straightforward solution. The Phillies could try to pry Hunter Goodman from the rebuilding Rockies. Luis Campusano looks like an odd man out in San Diego, though he’s yet to prove he can be a passable catcher in the majors. The White Sox have received interest in young backstops Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero, but both would come with a high asking price, given their recent top prospect status and half decade of club control. The Reds have some depth with Tyler Stephenson, Jose Trevino and Ben Rortvedt all on the books and top prospect Alfredo Duno coming in a couple years. If the Phillies do go the trade route, then how does the other club pivot to fill its newfound catching need? And where does Realmuto land? The ramifications of a Bichette signing in Philly stretch further than most would expect at first glance.

Poll: Who Will Sign Bo Bichette?

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It’s been an unusual trip through free agency for Bo Bichette. The infielder is one of the most attractive free agents on the market as a bat-first shortstop with multiple All-Star appearances under his belt who will only be 28 years old next year, but he’s not gotten much attention in the rumor mill this winter as players like Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Cody Bellinger have absorbed most of the offseason attention. Perhaps that lack of buzz has been due to a widespread assumption that Bichette, who has long spoken about his desire to stay in Toronto for his entire career, was sure to remain with the Blue Jays going forward. That’s an illusion that’s been shattered by the Jays’ addition of Kazuma Okamoto and their reportedly increased aggression in the market for Tucker, however. If the Blue Jays appear to be pivoting towards other stars, where does that leave Bichette? A look at his potential landing spots:

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox haven’t been shy about their desire to either re-sign or replace Bregman, adding to an infield mix that already includes Trevor Story and Marcelo Mayer as likely starting options. Bichette would certainly be as strong an addition as any for the Red Sox, adding a transformational right-handed bat to their heavily left-handed lineup. Bichette would likely be the weakest defender at shortstop between himself, Story, and Mayer, but that shouldn’t be a significant problem seeing as Bregman himself does not play shortstop and Bichette has expressed a willingness to move off his native position headed into 2026.

All of that makes Bichette a great fit for the Red Sox, which is surely why they held a video meeting with him last month. Even so, there are some potential obstacles. The team has reportedly started to be more aggressive in their pursuit of Bregman in free agency, and it’s nearly impossible to imagine Boston bringing in both players. Even if they don’t bring Bregman back into the fold, the Red Sox have shown a clear preference for utilizing the trade market to improve rather than free agency, so perhaps someone like Brendan Donovan or Ketel Marte would hold more appeal.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are a more recent entrant into the Bichette sweepstakes, as they’ve been connected to him in recent weeks. Chicago has had a very quiet offseason so far, but with Tucker expected to head elsewhere in free agency it’s easy to see why they might want to bring in a big bat to supplement the offense. As the #2 free agent in this year’s class behind Tucker, Bichette would certainly qualify, and his relative youth could be attractive to a Cubs team that is building up a core of young talent that includes Pete Crow-Armstrong, Matt Shaw, Michael Busch, and Cade Horton with more youngsters on the way.

On the other hand, Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner are the league’s best defensive middle infield combination at the moment. Bringing Bichette into the fold would seemingly either require Bichette to move to third base (thereby pushing Shaw into a utility role) or trading Hoerner to free up the keystone. The team’s front office already gave Shaw a vote of confidence earlier this winter, but Hoerner’s name has come up occasionally in trade rumors this winter as he heads into his final season before free agency.

Los Angeles Dodgers

As with the Cubs, Los Angeles’s interest in Bichette is a somewhat recent development. It’s hardly ever a shock to see the Dodgers involved in the market for a top free agent, and Bichette is no exception to that. After a down season in 2025 from Mookie Betts, adding Bichette’s right-handed bat to the middle of the lineup could be very attractive for the Dodgers in order to help balance out the big lefty bats offered by Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman.

With that being said, an infield consisting of Betts at shortstop, Bichette at second base, and Max Muncy at third base could leave much to be desired defensively. What’s more, such an alignment would require moving Tommy Edman back into center field on a daily basis, a move the club could be hesitant to make given his injury history. Of the winter’s top free agents, Tucker seems like a more straightforward fit for the Dodgers given their weak outfield mix. Even with that being said, however, the Dodgers’ financial muscle and eagerness to build on their back-to-back World Series wins leaves just about anything on the table for the club.

Toronto Blue Jays

While much of the discourse surrounding alternative suitors for Bichette is due to the seemingly closing window for him to return to Toronto, that doesn’t mean the Blue Jays are completely out of the running. Bichette’s affection for the only team he’s known since being drafted in the second round back in 2016 has been widely reported for years now, and his close connection with fellow star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. surely makes a return to Toronto the most attractive option from his own perspective. While Tucker is a more straightforward fit for the team’s needs after signing Okamoto, Bichette would still certainly be an extremely viable alternative if the bidding for the star outfielder gets outside of the Jays’ comfort zone. Placing Bichette at second base and either moving Ernie Clement into a bench role or having Okamoto split time between first base, third base, DH, and the outfield corners in order to create playing time for Clement could certainly be a viable option.

Other Options

Those four teams are perhaps the most feasible options for Bichette, but they’re far from the only ones. The Phillies have been connected to him and could certainly fit him into the lineup if they were to more significantly alter their lineup by dealing Alec Bohm, but signing Bichette seems likely to complicate their ability to re-sign J.T. Realmuto. The Yankees have also been connected to Bichette and might be his best chance at playing shortstop in 2026 given Anthony Volpe’s difficult year last season, but they presently seem focused on signing Bellinger and adding to their rotation, making a pursuit of Bichette lower on their list of priorities. The Giants could certainly use an upgrade at the keystone over Casey Schmitt, but they’ve been more focused on trade options like Donovan and Hoerner than the free agent market. The Tigers could theoretically put Bichette at shortstop in 2026 alongside Gleyber Torres before sliding him over to second when Torres hits free agency next year in order to make room for top prospect Kevin McGonigle, but Detroit’s front office seems largely content to head into 2026 with the same group that brought them back-to-back playoff berths the past two seasons.

Where do MLBTR readers ultimately think Bichette will land? Have your say in the poll below:

Blue Jays Continuing To Pursue Kyle Tucker

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The Blue Jays had already been one of the sport’s most aggressive teams before signing NPB star Kazuma Okamoto to a four-year, $60MM contract over the weekend. Okamoto joins Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce and Tyler Rogers as significant free agent acquisitions. They’ve also been one of the clubs most frequently tied to the top two free agent hitters, Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette.

There has been plenty of speculation that the Jays could be Tucker’s eventual landing spot. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote yesterday that two of his sources pegged Toronto as the favorite for the market’s top player. Meanwhile, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports this evening that the Jays are making a stronger push for Tucker than they had earlier in the winter. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet adds that the sides have had recent conversations, though he suggests the door remains open to Tucker or Bichette. Toronto’s interest in Tucker stretches back to the beginning of the offseason; he visited the club’s Spring Training facility in Dunedin on December 3.

RosterResource calculates the Jays’ payroll around $280MM, which is already $40MM above where they opened the 2025 season. Their luxury tax estimate sits at $308MM, more than $20MM north of last year’s season-ending tax number. They’re above the $304MM mark that represents the top tier of penalization. That already has them on track to pay around $30MM in luxury taxes, more than all but four teams (the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees and Phillies) paid last season. Any future spending is taxed at a 90% clip on the average annual value. A hypothetical $35MM AAV for Tucker would come with a $31.5MM tax on top of it.

[Related Poll: Will Jays Add Another Bat?]

It’s unclear how much of a deterrent the tax obligations are for the Jays. They’re already into uncharted financial waters after coming a few inches away from their first World Series in three decades. The Rogers ownership group and the front office are clearly committed to a win-now posture. George Springer, Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman and Daulton Varsho will all be free agents next offseason. That’s a lot of money coming off the books but also four key contributors whom they’re not guaranteed to have back in 2027, which should only increase the motivation to make another run this year.

Tucker, a career .273/.358/.507 hitter, is the best offensive player available. He’d step into an everyday right field role, pushing Anthony Santander to left. The Jays would have Springer as their primary designated hitter. Okamoto and Addison Barger could play either third base or factor into the corner outfield. It wouldn’t leave much playing time for Nathan Lukes, who’d be a speculative trade candidate. Lukes is coming off a solid season (.255/.323/.407 with 12 homers) but isn’t the kind of player who’ll prevent teams from making a run at a star.

General manager Ross Atkins spoke in generalities this morning about the team’s diligence in looking for continued ways to improve (link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). Atkins noted that any “additions at this point start to cut away playing time from players that we feel are very good major league pieces.” While it’s not a given that they’ll make any moves, that’d seemingly point toward them only strongly pursuing impact talent rather than targeting marginal upgrades over role players.

If the Jays were to land Tucker, that’d almost certainly close the door on a reunion with Bichette. One team signing the top three free agents in an offseason is essentially without precedent, and adding both players would push Toronto’s luxury tax number well above $350MM. Bannon indeed suggests that while the Jays aren’t out of the running for Bichette, a new deal with their longtime shortstop looks less likely after the Okamoto signing.

Playing Okamoto and/or Barger regularly at third base pushes Ernie Clement to second, where Bichette would probably be penciled in if he heads back to Rogers Centre. The bigger deterrent may simply be a reluctance on the team’s part to make a long-term commitment to Bichette. Bannon writes that a reunion could be more likely if the infielder settles for a shorter deal that allows him to opt out after the first season.

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