This week's mailbag gets into Nico Hoerner trade possibilities, whether top remaining free agents will go short or long-term, what's next for the Red Sox after Alex Bregman signed with the Cubs, where free agents such as Lucas Giolito and Zac Gallen might land, and much more.
Marc asks:
Well, Tom Ricketts proved me wrong. I never thought he’d pony up for a high dollar FA again. So, what now? I see all the rumors about Nico Hoerner but I think the Edward Cabrera trade and Alex Bregman signing are “all in” moves and moving Hoerner would weaken them (I think). Is there another move you think they could/ should still make?
I was surprised as well. I didn't think the Cubs would substantially improve their offer to Bregman from a year prior. But while Bregman is a year older, he was also free of the qualifying offer this time around. The signing is also a reminder that each offseason is its own beast with unique variables. What might have changed for the Cubs in 2025? They saw increased regular season attendance, hosted five playoff games at Wrigley, and got a better feel for what Matt Shaw can do in the Majors. They may have also grown more enamored of Bregman, who seemed to be adored by Boston's young players.
I would not make a blanket statement that the Cubs should not trade Hoerner this winter - it always depends on the return. But certainly the Cubs should not trade Hoerner if it makes them worse in 2026.
I haven't found a Cubs fan online who wants to trade Hoerner. But I will play devil's advocate for a minute.
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Is Bregman moving to second?
No, Matt Shaw would move to second if Nico leaves the Cubs by trade or free agency.
How the heck was Matt Shaw a 3.1 WAR played with a .690 OPS and more conventionally, a .226 BA? Every time I try to get in touch with my inner WAR, a number like that the favors mediocre utility players over everyday contributors pops up.
You lost me at Hoerner being a projected 2 WAR player
I mean, that’s not really what I said
I didn’t say you did. However it’s in your response:
“One of the most sophisticated projection systems, The Bat X, has Hoerner dropping to just 2.3 WAR this year. Based on what Shaw did as a rookie, it seems like he could provide that level of production as the Cubs’ starting second baseman.”
I wouldn’t even include that source because it sounds so stupid to be frank.
I don’t think it’s stupid, I think it’s interesting.
When we look at a string of four 102-109 wRC+ seasons from Hoerner, we are applying our own rudimentary projection system to say that he’ll stay in that range at age 29.
Then I see a very good projection system (that I’m sure outperforms any “eyeballed” projections) – actually two such systems – call for Nico to slip to a 96-98 wRC+ this year. It’s hardly crazy for it to suggest a 105 guy could slip below league average.
The Bat X is also calling for career-worst defense from Nico. It’s such a big drop from what he’s done that I want to learn more about that projection.
I don’t know what the Cubs project for Nico, but my point is that trading him could look more palatable if one has reason to think he’s going to slip and Shaw will improve. I don’t think that’d be a crazy position to hold.
Lol, what? It sounds so stupid? The BatX has been shown to be the most accurate projection system over the past several years. What you think of it is irrelevant.
Yeah, it’s definitely not crazy to think Shaw can play same level of D as Nico and hit for more power. I’m sure Shaw can hit for a .739 OPS
Tim Dierkes
The Bat X is also calling for career-worst defense from Nico. It’s such a big drop from what he’s done that I want to learn more about that projection.
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I have the issue with Duran. FG has his fielding at 6.8 in 2024, 3.9 in 2025, and -8.4 in 2026. For a player 29 years old, with no injury, it feels like one of those two numbers has to be wrong.
Hammerin’ Hank
The BatX has been shown to be the most accurate projection system over the past several years. What you think of it is irrelevant.
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On the simplest terms, Bat X lists the fielding component of Hoerner’s projected WAR as 2.5. This follows four seasons of 14.7, 12.6, 9.8, and 13.5. Asking why such a dramatic drop-off at age 29 is a reasonable question.
Pirates whiffed on Phillies DH, Kyle Schwarber. They should pivot to Phillies SP, Ranger Suarez, with that $100mm+.
Pirates can’t out slug Cubs and Brewers no matter who they get to play 3B, but they can be super elite at run prevention by signing Suarez to pitch every 5th day.
Breslow saw your post first evidently.
I would say a cuss word or two if the MLBTR powers that be would let me.
The Pirates don’t need him.
Everybody needs 4 WAR players.
Any interest in Issac Paredes?
If I’m the Sox, I sign Suarez for two years (or one with a player option and buyout). I’d play Mayer at 2B (or SS, moving Story to 2B, the original plan when he came to the Sox). Campbell should start the season at Worcester. They had a lot of faith in him, signing an eight year deal and handing him the 2B job out of spring training after only 85 AAA PAs. That didn’t work out, and his 2025 AAA after his demotion wasn’t so hot, either. Throwing him into to the 2B job again — no matter how well he plays in spring training — risks that entire investment. He should get at least a few months of reps and confidence building at Worcester before asking him to be the starter for a very expensive and competitive team in a pressured AL East race where four teams have a legitimate shot of winning the AL. Aside from the development aspects for Campbell, given all the moves they’ve made to strengthen the team, they really can’t want to start the season dependent on three prospect position players, none of whom have more than a half season of MLB PAs.
If he looks good in the spring he should be up.
No Hank.
Lou, I think you are spot-on correct on all points.
I am fine trading Hoerner if it gets either win now pitching or controllable pitching. Shaw can handle 2B just fine and offensively I don’t think he’s a massive downgrade if he shows similar power as the second half of last year. Issue with the cubs is injuries. They have made plans before only to then require inserting guys like Brujan and Castro.
Cubs didn’t need Bregman and his 18-77. Needed Tucker or bellinger. Wtfff
the Cubs decided to sign Bregman and now must make the consequential adjustments.
they need additional pitching
and they now have a surplus infielder
it’s either Shaw or Hoerner to go