The Orioles are known to be looking for more starting pitching. They’ve been connected to Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander and Zac Gallen in recent weeks. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that Lucas Giolito is also someone they are seriously considering. Giolito has also received reported interest from Detroit and Atlanta in the past month.
The O’s have made a few moves to address their rotation already this offseason. They acquired Shane Baz from the Rays and re-signed veteran Zach Eflin. They also subtracted Grayson Rodriguez, trading him to the Angels for Taylor Ward.
As of now, they should have Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Baz and Eflin in four spots. The fifth spot would most likely go to Dean Kremer, who has pretty consistently posted an earned run average in the low 4.00s for a few years now.
All teams need more than five starters to get through a season in the modern game, so depth is important. Tyler Wells missed most of the past two seasons due to ulnar collateral ligament surgery but was a viable back-end starter before that. Chayce McDermott, Cade Povich and Brandon Young have roster spots but haven’t clicked in the majors yet. They all have options and can be kept in Triple-A as optionable depth. Albert Suárez is in the mix on a minor league deal for some veteran non-roster depth. Trey Gibson doesn’t have a roster spot yet but he is one of the top pitching prospects in the league and has already reached the Triple-A level, so he should be pushing for a debut in 2026.
It’s a decent group on the whole. Arguably, they need upside more than they need additional depth. They don’t really have anyone you would call an ace. Rogers ended up having a great 2025, finishing with a 1.81 ERA. However, he started the season on the injured list, recovering from a right knee subluxation. Even once he was healthy, he was kept in the minors for a while. He didn’t get recalled for good until June. Bradish missed most of the past two seasons while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Baz has intriguing upside but just posted a 4.87 ERA last year.
Last winter, Baltimore went with older veterans with theoretically stable floors but less upside, signing Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Kyle Gibson. Those moves mostly did not work out well and the rotation was a major flaw in 2025.
Whether Giolito can provide upside over the guys currently on the roster is debatable. He did once seem like a borderline ace but it’s been a few years since he showed that form. He made 72 starts for the White Sox over the 2019 to 2021 seasons with a 3.47 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate, getting at least one Cy Young vote in each of those campaigns. But his numbers dipped over the next two years, as his ERAs were closer to 5.00 with strikeout rates in the 25% range. He then missed 2024 due to UCL surgery.
In 2025, he bounced back, to a degree. He made 26 starts for the Red Sox with a 3.41 ERA. He was even better after a cold start, with a 2.51 ERA over his final 19 appearances. But he only struck out 19.7% of batters faced on the year. Even in that strong push over his final 19 starts, he only punched out 20.3% of batters faced. He wasn’t able to pitch in the playoffs due to flexor irritation and a bone issue in his throwing arm. He has said that the issue subsided shortly after the season ended.
Given Baltimore’s current rotation picture, they could surely use the 2019-2021 version of Giolito. His more recent output wouldn’t be as exciting as someone like Valdez but he would surely be cheaper. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Valdez to get $150MM over five years and Giolito $32MM over two years. With February just over the horizon, it becomes more likely that Valdez pivots to some kind of short-term deal with opt-outs, but he should still be more expensive that Giolito on an annual basis.
They should have a bit of powder dry. RosterResource projects the Orioles for a $148MM payroll next year. They started 2025 at $165MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. If they want to run a similar number this year, they should have $15-20MM to spend. If they could line up a Ryan Mountcastle trade, since he’s more or less blocked by Pete Alonso, that would free up almost $7MM more.
Photo courtesy of James A. Pittman, Imagn Images
If he’s healthy he will be a good addition to the rotation.
Big “if” though ….
I’m very disappointed with this article. To look primarily at strikeouts is absurd. Giolito had a very good bounce back 25. Unfortunately, he had an end of the season injury. As long as that is not a 26 flag, he should be even stronger/better in 26. The only question to me is what do the team docs say?
It’s not entirely unreasonable to look at the strikeouts. During his run as a good starter, his k/9 ranged between 10 and 12, but last season it plummeted to 7.5/9. That’s a huge drop off and while his bottom line era of 3.41 last season looks pretty nice, there has to be some real concern that if his strikeout rate doesn’t improve a bunch next year, it could be hard for him to maintain those results.
Canuckle, your limited view is why baseball is not as good as it used to be. Why did the Sox sign Suarez who is not a strikeout machine? The objective is to get outs and outside of certain situational pitching, I’d argue looking for strikeouts increases the number of pitches thrown and extra stress that result in more injuries.
My view is not limited.
I’m well aware there are many ways to get outs.
My point that you missed is that Giolito previously relied on strikeouts as a means to get outs. He managed to walk the tight rope for a season without them, but there’s no guarantee that can continue.
dewey – You’re absolutely right about Ranger, he is NOT the type of pitcher the Red Sox prefer.
But after losing Bregman the Sox had no choice but to sign someone else for similar money. Ranger should give Bregman a Rolex or new car or something, the contract he got from the Sox was all Bregman’s doing.
His view isn’t limited. Not many pitchers can make the change from a power arm to a control specialist like Suarez is. They’ve lived their whole career pitching a certain way. It is asking a lot from a pitcher to make that change.
Canuckle, we don’t typically argue but here we simply agree to disagree. The fact that Giolito found a different way to get outs is not necessarily bad. I give him credit for learning how to pitch. If the Sox didn’t go elsewhere, I’d take him back in a heartbeat to be the number three, four or five starter.
Fever, we seem to be disagreeing a lot lately. I would not have signed Bregman for what he’s receiving. I also don’t believe the team gave Suarez his money. If that were the case, a more typical Henry type move would have been to ink the OTHER Suarez to two for $48 or something like that.
dewey – I knew a guy long ago, his name was Frank, he was a flamethrower who had 915 K’s with a 2.68 ERA over a 4-year period. However after that, issues with tendinitis forced him to throw with a much lower velocity which resulted in an average of only 115 K’s and a 4.00 ERA.
He was still a serviceable pitcher, but he was nothing like he was when he brought the heat on a regular basis.
dewey – I disagree that we’ve been disagreeing a lot … and please don’t count this disagreement as a disagreeing ;O)
I started my post by saying I AGREE with you on Ranger.
But no, it was not a coincidence the Sox came to an agreement with Ranger less than 4 days after Bregman agreed to join the Cubs.
There is less than a zero chance the Sox would have given the same contract to Ranger if Bregman had come to terms. That would have put the Sox at $307M in CBT payroll, over the highest threshold …. absolutely never would have happened.
Also not a coincidence they went from insisting on ridiculously long and massive deferrals with the Bregman offer, to no deferrals at all with the Ranger contract.
Henry gave Breslow a budget to work with, and Breslow likely spent up to the limit or at least close to it.
It’s really bizarre what’s going on with Geno, I look forward to hearing the details after he signs somewhere. He doesn’t seem like the type to be greedy, and there’s definitely several teams interested in him. There’s also no personality issues like there are with Framber, as everyone loves Geno.
Tanana Fever? Him and Ryan were unreal in the 70s. Some reinvent themselves, others never had the heat and always depended on changing speeds and location. Imagine paying a pitcher to actually pitch instead of simply throwing…
Fever, as for the timing of Suarez, I think it’s just moving on before someone else signed him. I do agree that had Bregman stayed, Suarez would not be in a Sox uniform. Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make. I prefer Suarez for the next five over Bregman.
dewey – Yes! He’s become heavily involved in the Christian church since his days with the Sox.
dewey – I AGREE with you on that, I like the Ranger signing. But I still want my power guy (Geno).
What do you think of Dylan? That would be a big disappointment if he is the last offseason move.
Fever, I knew a guy named Tom who pitched a game against Frank and beat him even though Frank threw harder. The difference was Tom had the same stuff later in the game and Frank did not. Frank pooped out and lost something off his fastball. And he didn’t know how to pitch without it. But Tom knew how to pitch. He won.
TRaderumors has bought into the new trend in baseball as related to pitching. If you don’t strike out at least 1+ batters per inning you don’t measure up! Sad!
Why not sign him with no draft pick compensation tied down to him?
Don’t go after him. Go in sign Framber Valdez. You need another big-time starter, not a 3 starter.
Gunner, many believe Framber’s best days are behind him. His projected cost is why he remains unsigned.
He’s arguably not even better than Kremer.
I love Dean Kremer, but there’s no comparison!
I agree. They’ll need to go big in order to compete with Toronto and NY. Valdez will be pricey but thats the cost of doing business in the AL East
Sign ’em both, really.
Spent all that money to cheap out now?
Spent all that money? The payroll is lower than last year. But to your point to bring in a guy like Alonzo and do nothing else is the most Orioles thing ever. Alonzo is here only because of the money not the “plan” he said that they laid out.
Do nothing else? Taylor Ward, Helsley, Kittredge, Eflin back as a 4/5 starter. Shane Baz. It’s been a pretty exciting offseason for the Orioles.
Don’t forget Pete Alonso
Yea that was in response to the gentleman saying all they did this offseason was get Pete Alonso. Should have clarified.
Sign him! 2/38…Or Gallen 2/32…Or F Valdez 2/48…Need one of these three
Why does Giolito deserve more money than Gallen with worse metrics under the hood?
He was luckier than Sugano last year. Gio for 2/38 would suck.
Giolito deserves more money than Gallen because Giolito had a better season in 2025. Giolito made 14M last season, a bump to 19 isn’t unreasonable IMO.
It’s easy to criticize, not add any specific stats, and just provide opinions…Sugano’s FIP was 5.36 last season while GIolito’s was 4.17 (Gallen 4.50), so your statement “He was luckier than Sugano last year” is hard to comprehend…
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/lucas-giolito…
XERA at 5.06. Far too much hard contact & he threw 50 less innings.
Giolito sucks.
2025 fWAR: Giolito 2.0, Gallen 1.1, Sugano 0.1
2025 bWAR: Giolito 2.1, Gallen 1.1, Sugano 1.3
2025 FIP: Giolito 4.17, Gallen 4.50, Sugano 5.36
2025 Savant Pitching Run Value Percentile: Giolito 58%, Gallen 24%, Sugano 12%
2025 Savant XERA: Gallen 4.27, Giolito 5.06, Sugano 5.81
Your comment “Giolito sucks.” is pretty hilarious…
Sugano really sucks.
This is an upgrade to Sugano who shouldn’t be near a playoff squad. Giolito does suck to sign. Giolito is a guy you sign if you didn’t sign Eflin.
This move absolutely sucks. Giolito gives up too much hard contact and doesn’t miss bats. He won’t be lucky and he won’t have an outfield that will be running any balls down for him. This move sucks just like signing Sugano sucked.
Gallen is the better pitcher but this doesn’t cost Mike one of his coveted 3rd round picks.
What don’t you cite any projection model for next year.
Real appetizing projection of a 4.6 ERA on Giolito because that’s the level of pitcher he is. No thanks on giving $39MM to a watered down Dean Kremer.
Ugh I fear there will be no reasoning with you. I prefer what actually happened versus what a bunch of computer models predict…okay so hard hit % for 2025 from Savant Giolito 41.1% and Gallen 43.0% and career % Giolito 37.8% and Gallen 41%…
check back around July
It’s a deal! I am putting on my calendar now lol…
Yall have to remember it takes two
I’d bet a few bucks this is a leak from Giolito’s agent to get his client some ink. Who wouldn’t believe the Os have reached out, whether or not it’s true?
While it could be an Os leak to gain some leverage with a potential trade partner for a mid-tier SP, I don’t think Elias is the kind of guy who thinks another GM would respond to this, rightly or wrongly.
Since Elias took over, the Warehouse has been sealed from leaks. Mike seems to run a pretty tight/quite game in Baltimore. Almost all the news comes when it’s done.
….and those that are in the public, like Framber, never seem to come through. Hum….
Yup, and he’s also so…analytical, shall we say, that I don’t think he can conceive of anything mattering to other GMs beyond their perception of player value or salary constraints.
…not following you there. Seems to me Mike has worked deals with a bunch of different teams for all sorts of players. With the Baz trade, it was the first time it felt like Elias was paying a ransom.
How do you mean?
I mean that he wouldn’t play games in the press with would-be trade partners because he wouldn’t see the point. He’s the type who assumes the other side will make their decision on the merits of the players alone, not any outside pressure.
I feel like Gallen might be the better play here but Giolito will probably be the cheaper option
Ugh, I can’t stand watching Gallen pitch. Just nipping away at corners all day…full counts to every batter…doesn’t attack…diddles. It so meh.
Drives me nuts to watch. Probably just me though.
Why haven’t the Astros offered their homegrown ace a multi year deal? In articles the reason I see being proclaimed is that the Astros don’t want the increase in their tax bill a Framber deal would bring.
Assuming that is the case and there are no underlying issues, putting a pitcher with a 60 percent ground ball rate into the ballpark that per stat cast had the 7th highest home run park factor for 2025, and an ACE on an ace less staff seems like a great fit
Of course it’s a great fit for the roster, but if they don’t want to cross the tax line, and Framber doesn’t want to work for food stamps, then they won’t be bringing him back.
Referring to Camden as that stat cast team and his fit on the Orioles
Ah. got it.
Your original post was not entirely clear, or at the very least, I misread it.
Bad teammates are not getting high dollar commitments this year. Valdez gets 2-4 years with opt outs and Giolito is getting 1 year under the qualifying offer amount max.
Alonzo is nice, but this is not a playoff team yet. If they are not in 2026, Elias’ focus on drafting hitters over pitchers (and not developing aces) will end his tenure.
Nah, his boss loves him.
I don’t see the correlation between drafting pitching and GM job stability.
Pitching is quixotic/more divergent than hitting to project (neither being perfect, clearly); Skenes was a 1st rounder, Skubal was a 9th rounder. Who was the last MVP that was a 9th rounder?
And besides, Bradish, Burnes, and Rogers were all acquired by Elias. Not to mention, the arms that he has been drafting/acquiring in the minors are starting to bubble up. There is more raw talent in the minor league pitching ranks than Baltimore has had in a long long time. It just that pitching takes a long long time to develop.
I mean, Gausman was a 1st rounder, and he didn’t help the Orioles. Brian Matuz…first rounder. Jake Arrieta…5th rounder…CY Young winner (eventually). Matt Hobgood 1st rounder…okay, smells like dead horse now, sorry…
We had Grayson Rodriguez at home…
In the ice bath, recuperating from an injury.
Doesn’t move the needle versus the bottom half of the current rotation.
Need a top of the rotation arm.
I’m not really crazy about Valdez or Gallen so I would be fine with Giolito on a 1 year deal, but probably not a multi year guarantee.
If that is what it would take to sign him, I would just pivot to Verlander or maybe try to trade for someone like Mitch Keller or Brady Singer.
But what good does this do? His FIP indicates a 4.15 ERA. Not sure how he is much better than any of the current rotation members.
Bradish and Wells are both coming back from major elbow surgeries and Eflin is returning from back surgery, plus Rogers has a pretty lengthy injury history himself.
Adding another solid veteran SP, even more a of a mid rotation one like Giolito, would be wise.
Giolito is not consistent/reliable enough to be an upgrade
Hope this is Mike Elias’version of “rumor chaff” as he continues to nail down the Fromber contract and whittle away any possible demand for 6 yrs.
Too much talent on that team for them to be as mid as they are. That front office seems boneheaded and they just throw stuff at the wall and hope it sticks. One more down year, they’re all fired.
They’re not going to sign anyone. Heyman being Heyman.
Giolito to Baltimore would be a nice fit. The longer Valdez sits on the market, the more I can see ATL swooping in to sign him.
Giolito can be a serviceable 3-5 guy for lots of teams and he’ll end up with a decent contract. A seriously contending team might have a hole or two at the end of their rotation, but I see him ending up somewhere like KC, CHW or MIN.
He has this propensity of creating traffic on the bases and adds stress on himself and the defense. He went 5 innings several times last year, but they were usually high wire acts.
Can the Orioles even garnered Gio a spot in the rotation if everyone is healthy? He’s not a noticeable improvement over the much more affordable Kremer. If he was a lefty, it would make sense, but he should sign with steam that could use him, like the Cardinals or Diamonbacks.
For the Orioles, it’s either lefty Valdez or a trade, or someone gets hurt in spring training and then Giolito or Verlander or Max
Giolito is worse than Kremer now. He had some good luck last year and an elite outfield defense. He will not have that here.
1. Grok says many studies show that SPs production declines before UCL surgery. It was 2 bad years for Gio, but maybe that’s what happened.
2. The O’s are not competing for division with the 3 AL East big boys. Sox w rookies prob improved, Jays prob improved, Yank$ get back Cole and healthy arms are better.
Os competing w Clev/Det and Hou/Seat runner-ups for wild card. None of those teams are better.
A relatively healthy Os team has enough pitching for a wild card. If it’s an injury festival again it won’t matter anyway. But if it’s a normal health year, the only question is who are the 3 playoff starters. You don’t want baz starting a postseason game and you certainly don’t want Kremer. So Gio looks like a good one to take a flyer on, a poor man’s Dodger stack of good injury prone pitchers.
I think deadline is a better time to find your extra playoff SP.
saj — #2. Whhaaatttt??!?! The Red Sox rookies (Anthony (solid), Meyer (hasn’t done nothing), and Campbell (playing in MLB in ’26??)) are going to lift Boston in the AL East? Given how the weight of expectations worked on Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser, Jordan Westberg, and Jackson Holliday last year, plus they play in Baltimores media market, not Bostons, that’s a pretty optimistic view, imo. If Roman Anthony misses a month… yikes, no more 130 OPS + Devers in that line up (yippee!!).
NYY get Cole and Roden back 2-3 months into the season. Baltimore was BURIED in the AL East by week 6 in 2025. There’s not much ‘hold the fort down’ in the AL East. If Fried or Judge have a single hick-up…
Toronto for sure has the strongest line-up and rotation; Baltimore has the best line-up, NYY best rotation (when fully healthy), BOS very good rotation, unpredictable line-up, and TB is TB (and have their own 21 year old 45+ HR hitter in their lineup too…)
Just saying, “O’s are not competing for division with the 3 AL East big boys” is just wrong; dunno if your over-estimating BOS/NYY or under-estimating BAL. As I see it anyway.
((Point #1 — good read, I agree.))
Gray Suarez Contreras for Bregman Gio is better, and I still count Anthony as a rookie (but I should stop) so the 3 net out to a +. They’re not amazing but they are better.
I will take 5 mos of rodon Cole anytime., more gil. Not great, but better than ’25.
Alonso ward don’t add much vs laureano ohearns ’25. Bullpen is not looking better than opening day ’25. You need 2 rookies to be really good and 5 disappointments all to improve a lot.
Maybe can ‘compete’, but they have 200 net run dffrls to make up on boston and 190 on jays. NY is worse still.
EVERYTHING would have to go right to beat out all 3
The Orioles are interested in adding a SP
The orioles should get him, but only after signing Framber
Ugh. This guy should be your #6.
I could care less hat his strikeout rate is. It could be 2% as long as that ERA is 2.51 like the end of last year.
The Orioles have been interested in Giolito since like 2019
Let’s get Jake Arrieta out of retirement while we are at it.
Giolito was interesting back in 2019. In 2026 you’re signing a vanilla #5 starter coming off an extremely lucky year.
Years ago, interesting. Last couple of years, not worth talking about. Pass on this problem.
LOL! Good leak from the O’s, a signal that Framber ‘FAFO’ Valdez is about to be signed to a team-friendly deal, lest he ignore the warning.
Wouldn’t have been a bad pickup before adding Elfin, but not what’s needed now. Valdez is the only FA option that moves the needle – otherwise go back to the Twins now that Falvey is out and try to get Ryan (ideally) or Lopez.
For the last time, McDermott is going to be coached for a pen role at Norfolk. About 5 guys would have to be out at once for him to be considered as a starter again.
Not sure that is much of an upgrade over Kremer. Since 2021 they have the same ERA and WHIP. Giolito gives up many more HR’s. Dean is no All Star but he is consistent and has a team friendly contract. If we are adding another arm let’s make it a significant upgrade that will make a difference. JOE RYAN!