The Orioles are known to be looking for more starting pitching. They’ve been connected to Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander and Zac Gallen in recent weeks. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that Lucas Giolito is also someone they are seriously considering. Giolito has also received reported interest from Detroit and Atlanta in the past month.
The O’s have made a few moves to address their rotation already this offseason. They acquired Shane Baz from the Rays and re-signed veteran Zach Eflin. They also subtracted Grayson Rodriguez, trading him to the Angels for Taylor Ward.
As of now, they should have Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Baz and Eflin in four spots. The fifth spot would most likely go to Dean Kremer, who has pretty consistently posted an earned run average in the low 4.00s for a few years now.
All teams need more than five starters to get through a season in the modern game, so depth is important. Tyler Wells missed most of the past two seasons due to ulnar collateral ligament surgery but was a viable back-end starter before that. Chayce McDermott, Cade Povich and Brandon Young have roster spots but haven’t clicked in the majors yet. They all have options and can be kept in Triple-A as optionable depth. Albert Suárez is in the mix on a minor league deal for some veteran non-roster depth. Trey Gibson doesn’t have a roster spot yet but he is one of the top pitching prospects in the league and has already reached the Triple-A level, so he should be pushing for a debut in 2026.
It’s a decent group on the whole. Arguably, they need upside more than they need additional depth. They don’t really have anyone you would call an ace. Rogers ended up having a great 2025, finishing with a 1.81 ERA. However, he started the season on the injured list, recovering from a right knee subluxation. Even once he was healthy, he was kept in the minors for a while. He didn’t get recalled for good until June. Bradish missed most of the past two seasons while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Baz has intriguing upside but just posted a 4.87 ERA last year.
Last winter, Baltimore went with older veterans with theoretically stable floors but less upside, signing Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Kyle Gibson. Those moves mostly did not work out well and the rotation was a major flaw in 2025.
Whether Giolito can provide upside over the guys currently on the roster is debatable. He did once seem like a borderline ace but it’s been a few years since he showed that form. He made 72 starts for the White Sox over the 2019 to 2021 seasons with a 3.47 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate, getting at least one Cy Young vote in each of those campaigns. But his numbers dipped over the next two years, as his ERAs were closer to 5.00 with strikeout rates in the 25% range. He then missed 2024 due to UCL surgery.
In 2025, he bounced back, to a degree. He made 26 starts for the Red Sox with a 3.41 ERA. He was even better after a cold start, with a 2.51 ERA over his final 19 appearances. But he only struck out 19.7% of batters faced on the year. Even in that strong push over his final 19 starts, he only punched out 20.3% of batters faced. He wasn’t able to pitch in the playoffs due to flexor irritation and a bone issue in his throwing arm. He has said that the issue subsided shortly after the season ended.
Given Baltimore’s current rotation picture, they could surely use the 2019-2021 version of Giolito. His more recent output wouldn’t be as exciting as someone like Valdez but he would surely be cheaper. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Valdez to get $150MM over five years and Giolito $32MM over two years. With February just over the horizon, it becomes more likely that Valdez pivots to some kind of short-term deal with opt-outs, but he should still be more expensive that Giolito on an annual basis.
They should have a bit of powder dry. RosterResource projects the Orioles for a $148MM payroll next year. They started 2025 at $165MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. If they want to run a similar number this year, they should have $15-20MM to spend. If they could line up a Ryan Mountcastle trade, since he’s more or less blocked by Pete Alonso, that would free up almost $7MM more.
Photo courtesy of James A. Pittman, Imagn Images
If he’s healthy he will be a good addition to the rotation.
Big “if” though ….
I’m very disappointed with this article. To look primarily at strikeouts is absurd. Giolito had a very good bounce back 25. Unfortunately, he had an end of the season injury. As long as that is not a 26 flag, he should be even stronger/better in 26. The only question to me is what do the team docs say?
It’s not entirely unreasonable to look at the strikeouts. During his run as a good starter, his k/9 ranged between 10 and 12, but last season it plummeted to 7.5/9. That’s a huge drop off and while his bottom line era of 3.41 last season looks pretty nice, there has to be some real concern that if his strikeout rate doesn’t improve a bunch next year, it could be hard for him to maintain those results.
Canuckle, your limited view is why baseball is not as good as it used to be. Why did the Sox sign Suarez who is not a strikeout machine? The objective is to get outs and outside of certain situational pitching, I’d argue looking for strikeouts increases the number of pitches thrown and extra stress that result in more injuries.
Don’t go after him. Go in sign Framber Valdez. You need another big-time starter, not a 3 starter.
Gunner, many believe Framber’s best days are behind him. His projected cost is why he remains unsigned.
Spent all that money to cheap out now?
Spent all that money? The payroll is lower than last year. But to your point to bring in a guy like Alonzo and do nothing else is the most Orioles thing ever. Alonzo is here only because of the money not the “plan” he said that they laid out.
Sign him! 2/38…Or Gallen 2/32…Or F Valdez 2/48…Need one of these three
Yall have to remember it takes two
I’d bet a few bucks this is a leak from Giolito’s agent to get his client some ink. Who wouldn’t believe the Os have reached out, whether or not it’s true?
While it could be an Os leak to gain some leverage with a potential trade partner for a mid-tier SP, I don’t think Elias is the kind of guy who thinks another GM would respond to this, rightly or wrongly.
I feel like Gallen might be the better play here but Giolito will probably be the cheaper option
Why haven’t the Astros offered their homegrown ace a multi year deal? In articles the reason I see being proclaimed is that the Astros don’t want the increase in their tax bill a Framber deal would bring.
Assuming that is the case and there are no underlying issues, putting a pitcher with a 60 percent ground ball rate into the ballpark that per stat cast had the 7th highest home run park factor for 2025, and an ACE on an ace less staff seems like a great fit
Of course it’s a great fit for the roster, but if they don’t want to cross the tax line, and Framber doesn’t want to work for food stamps, then they won’t be bringing him back.
Referring to Camden as that stat cast team and his fit on the Orioles
Ah. got it.
Your original post was not entirely clear, or at the very least, I misread it.
So we just forgetting about Hunter Brown now?
Alonzo is nice, but this is not a playoff team yet. If they are not in 2026, Elias’ focus on drafting hitters over pitchers (and not developing aces) will end his tenure.