Pittsburgh has spent the majority of the offseason focused on hitting. For a club that finished dead last in scoring last season, the approach makes sense. The Pirates parted with a pair of young starters to acquire more bats. The team sent Mike Burrows to Houston in a three-way trade that netted them Brandon Lowe and Jake Mangum. Pittsburgh moved Johan Oviedo to Boston for Jhostynxon Garcia. The deals have left them with a void to fill at the end of the rotation.
Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, and Mitch Keller are the locks. Braxton Ashcraft has a decent claim to the No. 4 spot. The young righty initially worked as a multi-inning reliever before transitioning to a starting role. Ashcraft either started or piggybacked with another starter in his final nine appearances. He allowed two earned runs or fewer in all but one outing in that stretch.
Jared Jones would be the obvious choice to round out the group if he were healthy, but the right-hander underwent UCL surgery in May. He expressed optimism about his progression at PiratesFest this week. Jones told reporters, including Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, that he’s worked up to two bullpens a week and has been mixing in offspeed pitches. Even with the encouraging results, Jones will be hard-pressed to be ready for Opening Day. The recovery timeline for the surgery is typically 10 to 12 months. Pittsburgh is likely to take it slow with its prized asset.
Here’s a look at the top candidates to open the season as Pittsburgh’s fifth starter. Given Chandler’s inexperience and Ashcraft’s limited workload, there could be an opportunity to remain in the rotation even after Jones’ return.
The Incumbent: Carmen Mlodzinski
Of the current Pirates not named Skenes or Keller, Mlodzinski made the most starts last season. He tossed a career-high 99 innings between the rotation and the bullpen. Mlodzinski made nine starts to begin the year, but put up an ERA well over 5.00. He found himself at Triple-A Indianapolis by mid-May. The 26-year-old returned to the big-league club in June, operating primarily as a reliever. He chipped in a handful of spot starts down the stretch.
Mlodzinski has been a valuable member of the pitching staff since debuting in 2023. He’s compiled a 3.25 ERA across 109 games. The adjustment to starting just hasn’t suited him, at least not yet. Mlodzinski has a 4.47 ERA as a starter, compared to a 2.71 mark as a reliever. He would seem to have a deep enough arsenal to get through the order multiple times, as he threw five different pitches at least 10% of the time in 2025, but the results haven’t shown it. Opponents have hit just .214 against Mlodzinski the first time through the order. That number jumps to .381 the second time through the order. Mlodzinski is probably best used in a versatile role, instead of as a locked-in rotation piece.
The Rookies: Thomas Harrington and Hunter Barco
Pittsburgh’s second and third picks in the 2022 draft are on the verge of contributing with the big-league squad. Both Harrington and Barco made their debuts this past season, but only for a handful of appearances apiece. They have options remaining and are long shots to make the Opening Day roster, but they’d be the most intriguing choices.
Harrington had moved swiftly through Pittsburgh’s system until hitting a roadblock in 2025. After pitching decently at Triple-A to close the 2024 campaign, he struggled mightily at Indianapolis last year. Harrington stumbled to a 5.34 ERA with a middling 21.7% strikeout rate. After posting above-average strikeout numbers at previous stops, Harrington has failed to reach 22% in both stints at Triple-A. He was hammered for 15 earned runs over 8 2/3 innings in his brief MLB time.
Barco didn’t reach Triple-A until May. He kept his ERA under 4.00 with more than a strikeout per inning, though it came with a career-worst 13% walk rate. His swing-and-miss numbers have been much more impressive than Harrington’s, but the control has been a step behind recently. Barco tossed three scoreless innings with the Pirates at the tail end of the season. The fact that he succeeded in his cup of coffee and Harrington flopped might be enough to give him the edge on a roster spot. Barco would also give Pittsburgh a lefty in the rotation.
The Classic Pittsburgh Free Agent
Speaking of lefties, we’ve arrived at the most likely scenario. Pittsburgh has a penchant for relying on veteran southpaws to eat innings at the back of the rotation. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco pointed out, Jose Quintana, Martín Pérez, and Tyler Anderson have all fit the bill in recent seasons. It was Andrew Heaney and trade acquisition Bailey Falter this past year.
General manager Ben Cherington has mentioned adding to the rotation. Quintana, Anderson, and Perez are still available. How about Patrick Corbin? After being one of the worst pitchers in the league in his final years in Washington, he had a resurgence of sorts in Texas last year. Corbin navigated his way to a sub-4.00 ERA through July. He was knocked around over the final two months of the season, but he put together a respectable first half. The 36-year-old Corbin could be the next soft-tossing lefty to find success at PNC Park.
Photo courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images
Good luck keeping Skenes long term. I don’t imagine Skenes is a lifer like Jose Ramirez who doesn’t care about winning and stays where he is forever.
So what, really. It’s a sport dominated by major market teams and huge salaries. We aren’t under any illusions. Maybe we’ll just enjoy watching a generational talent here for a couple years without worrying where he’ll go. Yeah. Sounds like a plan
what is with these trolls that have to remind Pirate fans that Skenes won’t play here beyond his arbitration years, WUOT
Like we don’t already know
Skenes won’t play for the Pirates past his 1st arbitration season. That will be a record and the Pirates aren’t paying him the $20+ million he will get in his 2nd arb year. Sorry. Has to hurt to know that you only get a few years of any superstar players.
You don’t know what’s gonna happen you’re not Nostradamus
Doesn’t hurt at all. And we feel nothing when someone feels like it’s gonna be fun to rain on the parade of Pirates fans. I mean, how old are you? 12?
I’m not sure if this makes sense but how about another trade with Boston. Sandoval who hopefully is ok now for Yorke. Yorke hasn’t shown much but is still a pesky type righty bat decent defender at second (not spectacular but not the worst either).
Cool response!
@Dewey – I agree Boston needs to move some of their excess pitching but why would they trade Sandoval for Nick Yorke? As you know, Boston drafted and then traded Yorke to Pitt. He hasn’t done anything in MLB yet, so why would Boston trade a solid #4-5 starter for an unproven 2B they already traded away once? Personally, I’d rather give Campbell another shot at 2B than trade for Yorke even if Boston wants him to play in the OF, not to mention Romy (who is one of my favorites).
I believe Boston will eventually trade for their starting 2B. It might take until Spring Training begins and other teams can scout Boston’s #5 – #10 starting pitchers in person. Something better than Yorke will present itself.
Dorothy because Sano sl has done nothing yet and while he wascses secured for 26, you never know. This would save significant $$ that could be reused or keep the payroll under the second tier. As for York, yes they had him 6and that’s why. They y’know him, he’s right handed, plays second and won’t cost anything. I remember how most fans wanted Pedie gone the April of his rookie season…
I’d rather Dennis Santana for Sandoval and Jovani Moran
He seems like it to me. Skenes is going to make a record amount for a 1st year arbitration eligible player. Then he is going to break the record again in his 2nd year. Unless something changes drastically in the next CBA, like 100% revenue sharing, then the Pirates are not going to have the money to pay one player 20% of their payroll, especially not one that is guaranteed to get even more expensive the next season.
Pray for 100% revenue sharing or watch Skenes be traded away after 2027. Those are the only realistic possibilities. Just be glad you have Skenes for 4 years. Enjoy every start. We have had Trout and Ohtani and it has been so nice to watch them play even though every season we have known that with them the Angels were going to lose more than they win.
Don’t know why anyone would want Yorke. But Boston traded a cy young winner for a similar prospect so who knows.
AI, the question is what is Sandoval worth? If he proves himself is spring training, that’s one thing. What though if he has nothing or gets hurt? Yorke was a player who always felt underwhelming yet outperformed in the minors. If Yoshida can’t be moved and Henry stops Breslow from spending more, who else do you trade just to reduce payroll? If zYorje can’t win the job, who cares about Sandoval who is injury security at this point?
I’m starting to love how much people on here crap on the Pirates because they can’t comprehend a season where they are competitive (understandable given how putrid their onfield product has been lately). So, now that they have actually fielded a competitive team (by objective measures), they don’t know what to do with that other than judge them by their 2025 team. Hopefully every other team in MLB does the same and we surprise everyone.
It doesn’t hurt us any more than any other team as they all know that the Dodgers will win the World Series every year.
Dewey-At first I agreed with Dorothy but looking at Sandoval 2024 numbers and the fact that I presume that arm injuries wiped out his 2025 season it may make sense.
I think that Yorke is better than what he has shone in the ML’s but has never really gotten a good chance.He may or may not be a starter at second base but he could be a valuable utility man.
Sandoval may very well be better than any of the remaining LH free agent starters.I remember that he threw an excellent game against the Pirates in 2023 or 2024.
Almost all proposed trades on here border on lunacy but this one after reflection would have some merit.
So would the RedSox.
Mendoza. It’s a crapshoot and Boston simply needs salary relief given Henry’s m.o. and they need a pedkybrighty bat that can provide decent defense at second. I’d make the trade if Bloom would.
If healthy worth near his salary. There’s still what 10 or so mlb starting pitchers in free agency. Shouldn’t be much of a return though. So many free agents been signed already. So many trades. Selling teams didn’t do anything amazing in their trades for much better pitchers.
Most people don’t know anything. Especially about baseball. Especially ones on internet. Pirates fans don’t know anymore than other teams fans which is pathetic being they have me commenting regularly.
You know, AI, someone here recently insulted you and suggested you be muted to the crowd. Oddly enough, it was the Three Amigos who came to your defense. Or Manny. Moe and Jack if you prefer
I don’t know that any Pirates fan on this site has ever suggested he has the ultimate knowledge of MLB or more than fans of some other team, so I have to wonder if you’re off your meds today. It’s great to have your wit, wisdom and appreciation of Thai Ladyboys here, but you’re becoming a legend in your own mind
AI has a mind?
Oxymoron alert!
That is just AI’s way of saying hello.
He likes to get reactions out of people but is generally smart enough to couch it in words that can be taken in different ways.
And he has always been a legend in his own mind.He is a little like Bryce Harper,very good at what he does,but also knows it.
He rarely if ever says things that are mean to the three of us,but can carp on others,sometimes unwittingly,and sometimes when they deserve it.
baseballisthebest:Let’s face it. Skenes is arbitration eligible after this year. When Kyle Tucker gets $60 million after putting up Bryan-Reynolds stats in 2025, you think Skenes is getting $20 million in his second year of arbitration? If he puts up te expected third straight year of historic-breaking stats, you’re looking at a first-year arbitration award at $25 million or more. His only starts at PNC Park after that will be in a visitor’s uniform.
another pretend Nostradamus predicting what will happen to Skenes next year coming
these comments are getting old
It doesn’t take Nostradamus to know what is going to happen with Skenes. All it takes is common sense and to have watched what Nutting has done in the past. Skenes will be making as much as Kellers AAV in his 1st trip through arbitration. His 2nd would make him the highest paid player ever for the Pirates. His 3rd? Off the charts for them. That is why he won’t be around then. Don’t worry, they will get a boatload of prospects when they trade him.
Have Skenes for 4 more years. 3 if they get great trade return. Could extend him maybe. You never know who would be interested in selling 2 3 free agent years for 150 200 million. If I threw a baseball for a living I would be extremely interested. He sounds pretty serious about going to air force which he can do in his early 40s but maybe he would be interested in taking 300 million now and doing it in his early 30s. People laugh why would he do that when he can get 500 million or more. There are so nasty diseases out there and accidents happen. That is why.
Bubba for 6 years will be almost or just as fun to watch. Hernandez same thing. They can easily draft the next guy this year or any draft. Jones Bubba Barco Skenes Sterling Hernandez. UCLA kid would have been nice but now they will have 2 2nd round picks. Balance pick. Maybe comp pick if Lowe is healthy. All these current mlb players will be traded if good. Pitching isn’t a concern. And not like Skenes is taking a huge discount so that $ could simply be spent on a free agent. Or pirates can trade for a pitcher like many teams have this off season and it didn’t cost any elite prospects.
Skenes ain’t joining the Armed Services and he ain’t signing for less than $40 mil AAV. Front office will dump him like Gerrit Cole.
Some of the qualifications required to attend Air Force Pilot school:
-Completion of Officer Training School (OTS), Air Force Academy (AFA) or Air Force Reserve Officer Training Corps (AFROTC) to become an officer in the Air Force.
-Then enter Undergraduate Pilot Training (UPT) and begin flight training (~1 year).between the ages of 18 and not reached your 33rd birthday.
Pretty sure they would make any exceptions needed for him if what you say is true.
actually Skenes has said and repeatedly that his dream is to serve in the Air Force after his playing days are over
Cleveland at least contends most of the time. Pirates won’t even try for .500.
Cardinals are selling, reds stayed the same, cubs aren’t as good as advertised and the brewers will do what they do. Pirates could easily get to .500
Brewers could easily win the NL Central again and the Pirates could easily miss the playoffs again.
and I could easily die this year
You don’t know what is going to happen
These small market teams may contend but none really have a chance of winning a World Series because they cannot afford more than one superstar if that at a time.
Cleveland has made the playoffs 7 of the last ten seasons. Try harder.
Very few players stay with one team so what’s your point, anyone who follows baseball knows thr Pirates have almost zero chance to sign Skenes long term
Paul Skenes could offer to pay the Pirates to sign him long term and Bob Nutting would still find a way to cheap out.
johng, that seems to be the point.
Doesn’t care about winning? You obviously haven’t paid attention to who has been WINNING the Central over the last decade. If you get in, you have a chance.
The Pirates haven’t made the playoffs in a decade. What kind of comparison is this?
MLB- The shame of it is he will want to go with the Dodgers who will win their sixth straight WS thus keeping the Yankees to one this century.
Wow – just realized this site has a mute button. Toxic = mute.
You can run, but you can’t hide.
Paul Skenes and 4 other guys.
That’s right.
If Chandler and Ashcraft stay healthy, you will see that’s not true.
Big if
every player has the possibility of injury, even elite players
And Barco and Jones
And everyone forgets about Mitch Keller
Coming off a rocky season, but is a top-50 MLB pitcher for the most part. I’d lean towards him having a good season
Keller’s rocky season was a result of lack of run support
Keller’s rocky season was exactly what he has done the last 4 seasons. Keller is a 4+ ERA starter. 4.15 ERA the last 4 seasons. 4.19 last season. He has been very consistently average, mediocre, meh. What he did best was take the ball every 5th game. That has real value. But don’t try to make excuses for him being a #3 starter and nothing more.
hc
Yep
I don’t understand the mentality of people who comment like JKBC. Either they are just very negative people or very ignorant people. Or both.
I chose both
Juan- Some of these posters are what I call quasi trolls.
They tend to make negative comments about other teams and usually do not know what they are talking about.They may think that their negativity reflects well on their team.
They are not the idiots that true trolls are but serve relatively little purpose in starting or maintaining a good conversation.
I was gonna say I like Cleveland. Then I read your input and remembered why they call it the mistake by the lake
Okay grandpa let’s get you to bed.
Grandpa? Then why does your wife keep calling me?
Stick to what you know, son. Beer. Fart jokes
You know those silica gel packets? You should eat a thousand of them and shut up.
Witty. How original.
If we put your brain in a bird, the bird would fly backwards.
JKBC
Really love the quality of the comments here on MLBTR
Great work by the site founders to cultivate such a place.
Muted
Thomas Harrington, Braxton Ashcroft, Jake Mangum, Bubba Chandler, Hunter Barco?
Is that a Baseball Team or Soap Opera cast? Does John Candy have a magical typewriter in the Pirates Front Office?
Lighten Up Francis. It was a joke.
The John Candy typewriter reference just made my year. I loved that movie,
I said “A Six Pack of Beer” not “Deer”. It was a typo!
A Delirious reference! Yes!
crawl out from under your rock, these pitchers are household names with Pirate fans
And they are not household names among just about everyone else on Earth that is not a Pirates fan, I know the entire all time Rockies roster, but I don’t expect the average person to know Edgmer Escalona, Lariel Gonzalez, or Phillip Diehl.
You’re right.
Very very casual baseball fans then. Bubba was is a highly ranked prospect. Pirates famously and industry applauded for saving $ by taking Davis to get Bubba.
He’s not Lara’s brother so it’s Ashcraft. Had a 2 some era and good k rate so if your team faced him you probably know him. If not he was mentioned as a trade want of many teams this offer season.
Mangum makes highlight catches. So probably seen highlights.
Other 2 not well known I would say. Barco should be something. Harrington will always be remembered by me as one of the fakest top 100 prospects ever. Along with Solometo.
Hi-The reason that your three names are not known is because they were probably AA players players playing in the MLs and for only a few games.
Real ML followers of MLBTR and MLB would be familiar with the Pirate names.
Many fans of other teams would not.
My sense is that many more will be if they follow baseball within a year or two.
Whatever dude.
Sensitive lil fellow. Someone was trying to explain the most simplistic of things to him. He couldn’t comprehend it. So I couldn’t help myself and commented I guess it hiflew over his head. And he muted me! You believe that! I’m beloved here. Should have been like the rest of you and just grateful I acknowledged him.
Junior Fernandez in a Pirates uniform on another article. No idea who he is/was. Speaks to not knowing everyone I guess.
Cubs rotation is better Reds too.
Cubs? I don’t know about that one. Cade Horton had a good rookie year, so I’ll give them that, even if he has questionable underlying numbers. But Imanaga’s stuff regressed and struggled badly down the line. Boyd also struggled in the second half. Taillon is solid, but also 34 and had a .239 BABIP, despite relatively pedestrian EV and barrel numbers, and his career-average BABIP is .284. Cabrera has made 20+ starts once in his career. He and Horton are also their only starters under 30 years old.
I think the Reds’ top 3 starters between Greene, Lodolo, and Abbott are very good. Greene may not be as good as Skenes, but Lodolo and Abbott are (probably) better than Keller, and maybe better than Ashcraft, depending if Ashcraft can repeat his success from his rookie year. But Burns nor Lowder have yet to show the sort of promise Chandler has, and Singer is on a similar level as Keller.
Hahaha. No one thinks that. Anywhere. What is this, Fools Night?
Would be nice if Barco could win the 5th spot
Chandler & Ashcraft could both be elite
Pirates rotation should be fun to watch
Hopefully they can handle the workload tho
Having Mlodzinski really helps out given he can help guys like Chandler, Ashcraft, and Barco who may be on a pitch limit per game. I think rather than signing an older lefty, the better plan would be sticking with Barco, and signing another swingman type pitcher like Nick Martinez or Kolby Allard.
Throw all the starting pitchers out on the mound for Pitt that you want to. They need to be able to do other important things:
1) Score enough runs to win.
2) Have a bullpen that can hold the lead that the starters turn over to them.
Pittsburgh really needs to sign Geno Suarez if they want to have a respectable lineup this year. They have made some nice improvements but they need to add some more power and veteran leadership. Suarez would bring both to the club. Sure, his defense is not the best but the bat outweighs the glove here, and they should be able to sign him for less than originally projected which was around 3/$63M. I think they could get him for 2/$40 with a club option.
using Carmen as a starter means going to the bullpen earlier
Then there is the X factor of some unexpected player breaking out with a great year. I know; wishful thinking. Can’t deny the possibility, though.
I honestly wouldnt mind Mlodzinski winning the 5
Either way id love to see Barco utilized at the ML level. Even out of the pen, a lefty that can go multiple innings is great
I’d be happy with a four man rotation – Skenes, Keller, Bubba, Ashcraft – then have all the other guys except Soto/Santana stretched out for 2/3/4 innings.
Use Montgomery as a lefty opener every fifth day – with Mlod/Barco/Harrington/Jones as the bulk guy to follow.
I’d prefer any leftover money to be spent on hitting – they don’t need a Quintana/Heaney/Anderson this time around.
heaney retired
Wouldn’t it be nice if Bidois from down under extended his success to the MLB level.
Damn right, cobber.
I may be one of the few who likes Jones and see him as a real star in the making. Hope he has recovered fully
he’s a stud for sure
I like Jones too but as AI has pointed out he is a small frame pitcher and they do not tend to last long.
Roy Oswalt would disagree!
He was a good pitcher but that was 15-20 years ago and these young pitchers now tend to throw as hard as they can on every pitch.
It’s not the size of the dog in the fight, Mendoza
But smaller pitchers who tend to throw very hard do not last as long in the fight.
Keller and Skenes could be the only Pirates’ SP that are allowed to pitch more than 150 innings in 2026.
So far sure looks like the pirates want to do something this year. I am from ca., by chance I saw Clemente get his last hit. Hope the pirates can add a third baseman.
Carmen is better in long relief than as a starter
Oldman3 just dumping random comment replies
do I insult you with name calling, Dream?
Grow up
Paul-That is just AI( née Dream ) GM humor.
He cannot help himself.
That means he likes you.
This guy is talking about seeing clemente last game and third base and other dude is just smashing buttons not caring. He wants to talk about Carmen and doesn’t care.
May have gotten it mixed up with the previous thread.
I figured. I’m like Cutch and got a lil feisty. Yeah he just scrolled a bit too far and replied. My head though went to the stereotypical not tech savy guy just smashing keys.
I do that sometimes too.
Many people do to some extent.Lately I have been putting my responses to the wrong poster.
Cutch has gotten too feisty.
Not a classy thing to do.
And writing that Cutch didn’t like the idea of Marge moving to CF. But hey, the mental imagery was great
Bassett out of dollar range.? He would be a solid addition for the back end of the rotation and another 150+ inning pitcher should help the bullpen too with keeping them fresher.
I’d love to see Bassitt flipping his 70mph junk a day after Skenes pitches and a day before Chandler pitches
kinda crazy that the “junk” produced strikeout rate about the same or better than all the pirate starters last year outside of Skenes and thats over 150+ innings. So what does that make their pitches?
I think you misinterpreted the use of the term junk there.
Junk in baseball is nasty breaking stuff
Roll-Bassett is unknown to me but seems to be a good pitcher no matter how hard he throws.
The kicker though is pitching for the Blue Jays making $22M a year and probably wanting near that amount now.
The Pirates are looking for someone under $10 M especially with their young pitchers coming up.
*The Pirates are looking for someone under 5 mil
Should be Barco until Jones comes back.
I’d rather the Pirates go with Barco and see what he can do before turning to Mlodzinski as a starter again. He breaks down when he has to face the order a second time. I think Barco would also be better than bringing in another veteran lefty starter. If we’re setting the bar with an Anderson, Quintana, Perez reunion, or go after Corbin, just see what the young top prospect lefty starter can do.
MLB- They need a veteran starter for depth.
Pitching depth especially is a very important commodity for some of us fans,the need for which cannot be predicted accurately by AI and statistics.
That being said it needs to be a good fifth starter for a reasonable amount of money.
Fortunately this is one thing among relatively few things that Cherington has been good at doing.
I say get Quintana to guard against injuries and lighten the starter workload and minimize the reliever workload.
I’d like to see Tyler Anderson go to the A’s. Lefty vet with experience pitching in an unfriendly pitching environment (Coors), could be a good mentor for Jump, Lin, and Arnold when they get to the show.
There’s still so many free agent starters who can help out, even if it’s for half the season. I really don’t want to see Mlod starting anymore. He is very good in the bullpen and that’s more important than a below average starter. If they don’t spend on another bat, it would be cool to see them sign Bassitt or Gallen but I wouldn’t expect that. More along the lines of someone like Quintana or Tyler Anderson, and Corbin who was mentioned. They could always try a rehab/bounceback guy like Gonsolin or Nestor Cortes?
Walker Buehler?
I am not sure on him. His floor is low, maybe for 2-4M but not a top choice.
Cortes isn’t expected to return until after the all-star break. Two weeks before the Pirates dump players at the trade deadline.
Okay. I didn’t know much about his situation other than he barely pitched in what amounted to a lost season.
Everyone wants Barco. Apparently the never heard of depth. Injuries are a thing. Or service time.
Gallen would cost a 2nd round picks so absolutely not.
Gonso and Nestor are both out longer than Jones, so neither helps
Im stuck between the guarenteed innings Quintana or Corbin could provide, and the upside of Barco/Harrington/Mlodzinski
I dont think Anderson is coming back. Feel like he’d retire before taking a low-dollar deal with the Pirates at this point.
I don’t think they need either. Just bring back Falter if this is the choice
The problem with Falter is the same one that Cherington has with Andujar.
Cherington believes in the saying” you can never go home again”.
It would mean that he had made a mistake.
I read Oneil Cruz cut his dreadlocks in preperation for a trade to the Yankees.
Pirates:
Oneil Cruz
Paul Skenes
–for–
Yankees:
Will Warren
Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz
Ben Hess
Carlos LaGrange
Spencer Jones
Austin Wells
Jasson Dominguez
Come on Pirates, make a big trade. Will Warren is legit and can pitch at the top. Wells will put Joey Bart, Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis out to pasture. That alone might be worth trading Skenes.
Rodriguez Cruz, Hess and LaGrange all good pitching prospects. More than enough for Skenes. Yankees probably make this trade and the Pirates will be stacked with potential.
Trolls are out in full force on this thread
Yeah. So tough putting the big mean Pirates team in their place.
ABS is just trying to help the Pirates out.
I do not know the players but if they are what he says that they are then at least it is viable.
It at least does not seem to be a ridiculous one like others that I have seen here.
I say to ABS come back in maybe two years with it.
Yeah, I was referring more to the crowd who keeps reiterating that Skenes will be gone and that the team is hopeless, blah blah, blah.
That proposal is actually pretty good but I would rather try my hand with winning with Skenes for a few years then re-assessing if/when they can’t lock him up.
Thanks. I needed a good laugh. Enjoy another season chasing the Jays.
You can’t offer quantity for quality here. Yankees system simply doesn’t have the high-end talent it would take to get Skenes. It took two top-50 guys to headline a Crochet trade and Skenes would cost double that at the minimum (maybe triple?). At least put Lombard in there if you’re trying.
Hoping Warren can ‘pitch in the middle’ might be a stretch. He’s a low ceiling guy and not going to interest the Pirates.
Skenes is a force but he could wear down with that violent delivery.
Warren is silent. Mechanics are nice and easy. Hides the ball and lightning quick through the slot.
He reminds me some of Edward Cabrera. He doesnt throw as hard but mechanics are similar. Warren’s sweeper is as good as any in MLB.
That is a massive package of prospects from the Yankees, it is a massive overpay but the Yankees salivate over Cruz’s lefty bat in their lineup.
Moving Judge to first takes away some of the concern with the UCL. Rice starts at C most games.
Yanks would have a crazy rotation with Skenes, Fried, Cole, Rodon and Schlittler.
The Yanks might make that trade amd Pittsburgh will have cashed in nicely if they did. Warren is going to be an ace.
That would be a nice rotation….if those guys could stay healthy….or your offer was realistic.
You can’t trade a bunch of nickels to get a silver dollar. Even if you mustered a more serious offer, or asked the Pirates to pick whatever they wanted, it likely still wouldn’t be enough, because the Yankees top-end farm talent is just not good enough and most teams in MLB could easily top it. The best prospect in the package is a back-end top-100 guy. That Crochet trade, which wouldn’t be nearly enough for Skenes, had two guys that blow your best prospect offered out-of-the-water in terms of value. You’d have to find multiple top-10 guys, just as a start to an offer.
Warren is a solid back-end starter. Maybe he improves and/or shows he can consistently be a solid mid-rotation starter, but that’s optimism. He’s a 6th piece in a deal like this. Wells was the only player of serious value who you’re offering here, otherwise it’s a few 3rd and 4th pieces at best.
So take out Warren, as the pirates would use him as a mid-reliever, then go back and look at that trade package for Crochet and try to figure out how to make an offer thats 2 or 3 times as strong as that.
If anybody should say no to that trade its the Yanks, they’d be doing Pittsburgh a solid.
Id even say the Yanks keep Dominguez because its probably too much with him in the trade.
Silly Yankee fan
The Pirates say no and easily. I’m not sure Yankees have the young non prospects to make a trade for Skenes but I do know you aren’t getting Skenes without Schlittler in the trade. Probably don’t have enough you current talent to get him anyway.
Pirates fans dont seem to get it. Skenes is the ultimate window. A five year window with the prospects they have on the farm. If you can land a big trade.
Elmer Rodriguez Cruz and Carlos LaGrange arent lottos. The life on LaGrange’s heater is right there with Skenes. Rodriguez Cruz has a sick curve ball and some of the best HR/FB and GB rates that I have seen posted in MiLB. Hess is 6’5 250, hits 99 with a 60 slider and posted a 1.07 WHIP in over 100 IP between high A and AA.
The Yankees have to make a big trade. There arent many players worthy of these nickels.
Pirates say no and its Mlodzinski and Barco for five seasons.
ABS as a Red Sox fan I had this argument with fellow Red fans who thought they could put together a package without Anthony and that’s not happening. I don’t think the Yankees have the young big league talent to pull it off. They aren’t trading him this year maybe next year but other teams can and would beat that Yankee offer.
So why make the trade? Yanks have the starters to win already and you’re wanting to give away “talent” that will replace the guys who will leave over the next few years. Seems you are talking yourself into believing the guys you named are all that as much as you are trying to convince us of it. Sort of a bad negotiating tactic: good thing you’re not a Yankee FO guy.
@abs
“Skenes is a force but he could wear down with that violent delivery.
“Warren is silent. Mechanics are nice and easy. Hides the ball and lightning quick through the slot.”
“Warren is going to be an ace.”
Based on what you are saying the yankees wouldnt want to even entertain any trade of him since they have ace in warren with little to no potential of injury and he also has an extra year of control, So why add anyone to the trade. If anything the Pirates should be sending more for Will Warren by himself.
Im not even a yankee fan and i know how hard you are trying to fit this bad trade.
You Yankee fans have to stop with these ridiculous offers. That is not close to what would be enough. Don’t get your hopes up…🤦🏻♂️
@roll your logic is mostly argumentative and asinine. The Yankees are stocked at the top of the rotation for the next three seasons with Fried, Cole and Rodon, they have three good young starters in Weathers, Gil and Schlittler.
I believe Warren is capable of being an ace, and that the potential value in the package of prospects exceeds that of Skenes and Cruz.
The package of prospects is also hedged in a way that Skenes and Cruz aren’t. The only team that is a bad trade for is the Yankees but they have to trade somebody at some point from their pitching group, might as well try and go big.
Watch what you wish for with Cruz.
He cannot hit lefties.
Batting average against them last year was 103.He will improve it this year but how much and how much chance will he get to do it.
He is not a natural center fielder which is where he should have been all along instead of thinking that he was Omar Vizquel or even,um,Mario Mendoza.
With his power when he actually squares up it does not matter that he would have a short porch in right field.
And he cut his hair so that he could think better and quit making the bonehead plays and hustle all of the time instead of just when he wants to.
ABS-What you don’t understand is that the Pirates do not have to trade Skenes now and if they did they would want premium ML proven young talent across the board including at least two premium players.
Skenes is Dwight Gooden without the personal problems.
How much was a prime time Willie Mays worth?How do you put a price tag on such a rarity?
The Pirates have made significant roster upgrades this year and reasonable offers to other good players.This has been done in part because they do have a fine young pitching staff which includes Mlodzinski and Barco who are both fine pitchers even though met with scorn by the naive fans of other teams.
The reason that I have put this much time and effort into a response is because your suggested trade return does not seem as ridiculous as most Yankee fans have made.
If the Yankees are serious then the Pirates should shop Cruz to get ML talent in return.
Then you can dream about having two 50 home run hitters on your team.
and a .200 batting average along with 200 strikeouts
ABS is just another delusional yankees fan, nothing to see here, folks.
ABS
The BTV values for your proposed trade
Oneil Cruz $30 million
Paul Skenes $138 million
TOTAL $168 million
–for–
Yankees:
Will Warren $28 million
Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz $15 million
Ben Hess $6 million
Carlos LaGrange $10 million
Spencer Jones $18 million
Austin Wells $42 million
Jasson Dominguez $23 million
TOTAL $142 million
By far, not the worst trade proposal anyone has dreamed up
Please forgive me if i am reading this wrong but you need 26M to make this trade even. So based on that calculation you would potentially have to do one of two things.
You would need to send an ace (will warren is worth 28 million and ABS says he is an ace) so that would be around Cam Schlitter territory is my guess.
The other option is you would need to add Lombard in the deal. Jones is worth 18M and Lombard is their top prospect and I would have to guess he would be worth around one and half times jones (27M).
This would mean the top 3 prospect and 1 or 2 solid/top end pre arbitration pitchers and young talent as well in Wells and Dominguez. This would also make this an 8 for 2 trade and im sure there are a lot of things that the pirates would have to do to the roster to get them in the 40 potentially negating some of that value. So i am definitely questioning the calculations.
Roll
“So i am definitely questioning the calculations.”
You can question the calculations
Or you can question your understanding of the calculations
Why did you choose to do the former and not the latter?
The site calculates their VALUE. It says nothing about how well they might fit on a given team’s roster.
didnt read the first line huh
“Please forgive me if i am reading this wrong but you need 26M to make this trade even.”
and im questioning the calculations/values on both sides because it is rediculous that 3 top prospects (one of which is in the top 20) and 2 top pre arbitration middle to potentially aces is needed to be the equivalent of one player that doesnt play everyday. the rest of the yankees and oneil basically wash each other if anything probably more value from the yankees side if anything.
fyi value is based on calculations when the numbers do not pass a reasonability test aka sniff test you question the calculations and logic. Jones is their number 2 prospect and dominguez who was a number 1 in their farm for a bit and now has solid major league experiece is worth practically the same and then you have wells who did worse than dominguez but worth double the value than either?
Also the fact it would allow for an 8 vs 2 make me question the logic in the calculations as well unless an override was involved. .
Roll
“didnt read the first line huh”
Yes I did
“Please forgive me if i am reading this wrong but you need 26M to make this trade even.”
You read it correctly. No problem there. But that’s an entirely unrelated issue.
“and im questioning the calculations/values on both sides”
Yes. THIS is the issue
“because it is rediculous that 3 top prospects (one of which is in the top 20) and 2 top pre arbitration middle to potentially aces is needed to be the equivalent of one player that doesnt play everyday. ”
Ah. What a surprise (note: it’s not a surprise at all). It’s player valuation that you don’t understand.
1) a player’s value isn’t based on how much they play. It’s based on how much they produce.
2) Skenes faced 733 hitters last season despite “not playing every day”. Francisco Lindor led the league in plate appearances with 732.
“when the numbers do not pass a reasonability test aka sniff test you question the calculations and logic”
Or you test your sniffer. Have you done that?
Back to you not knowing how do value players
“you have wells who did worse than dominguez but worth double the value than either?”
How do you figure that Wells did worse than Dominguez?
“Also the fact it would allow for an 8 vs 2 make me question the logic in the calculations as well unless an override was involved.”
Do, do you think this is MLB the Show or something? What are you talking about “overrides”?
Here, I’ll throw you this bone
Here’s the numbers on BTV’s performance last trade deadline.
“How did our model do at the 2025 deadline?
Number of trades: 64
Number accepted by the model: 57
Acceptance rate: 88%
Average value variance per deal: 3.5”
Let’s see what yours was.
What? You don’t have one? You trust in your sniffer but you’ve never tested it?
What a shock.
Nah, I’m not intellectually challenged enough to “trust you bro”.
You’re going to look at this evidence and double down that you must be right and they must be wrong?
Even bigger shock
I watch Will Warren pitch, he racks K’s — and he isn’t polished, can get better. Elite breaking ball, great movement on his heater.
great mechanics. has the makings of a legitimate ace.
Statcast disagrees with you ABS. Will Warren throws a lot of innings of at best back of the rotation type stuff. His sweeper is awful based on statcast numbers in fact his fastball is his most valuable pitch. Warren is a sea of blue on his statcast page where red is good. He looks like at best a back of the rotation guy and he’s nowhere near an ace.
I’m not saying perhaps he can’t improve but right now he’s a back of the rotation guy with maybe mid rotation potential if you squint. His secondary pitches value are very poor according to Statcast. He’s nowhere near an ace level pitcher his value is that he threw a lot of back end of the rotation type innings last year. Put it simply Skenes is an ace and Will Warren well Will Warren is not and never will be.
Juan it’s fun for fans to go to trade value site like BTV and throw a bunch of names in there and think this could get a player like Paul Skenes.
There a couple of reasons why there is no way that is even close to getting Paul Skenes. Paul Skenes is a free agent in what 2030 so that means you have him for the next 4 years. I think he’s almost un-tradable at this point. Since I know the Red Sox better than any other team in baseball I’ll give what I think it would cost the Red Sox. First you aren’t getting him without a current player that has already shown superstar potential so it starts with Roman Anthony. From there you have to add probably another guy or two say Early and Tolle. Then I think you have to add a guy like Arias and maybe another guy like Justin Gonzales. Maybe that gets it done but as a Red Sox fan would it be worth it to have Crochet and Skenes back to back maybe it would. That might not even be enough. Skenes is incredibly valuable to the Pirates when he pitches he’s a money maker for the team. I don’t think his value can be properly ascertained and he just might be un-tradable at this point. Can you imagine if the Red Sox traded all those guys and Skenes blew out his arm? I don’t think Skenes is traded until at the earliest trade deadline of 2027 more likely it will be the off-season before 2028. The point is you aren’t putting a fantasy deal with a bunch of prospects and back end pitchers together no matter what BTV says. Trading for Skenes with all the control he has now will have a chance both ways to be franchise altering and it’s why the trade isn’t happening.
All Yankees have to do is lose for 6 seasons in a row and they can have young arms.
@No ABS:
Here is why nobody else is eager for Will Warren:
– Not a top prospect: Topped out at 8th in system by Pipeline after being an 8th rd pick
– Can’t go deep in starts: averaged less than 5 innings per start last year (dead last in MLB among qualified pitchers by a large margin)
– Lacking fastball: averaged 93.2 mph and graded below average by stuff+ (97)
– Not as young as you might think: going into age 27 season
– Gets hit hard: Out of 52 qualifying pitchers he ranked 44th (45.2%) in HardHit% and 48th (91mph) in avg exit velocity
It’s fine that you think he’s good and will become an ace, that’s your opinion. But right now you’re trying to sell a silver dollar for $50 because it has sentimental value to you, but to everyone else, it’s just a dollar.
So remake your trade with players that are more highly regarded prospects/players (Lombard & Schlittler). If you really think that Warren is going to become an ace, then substituting Schlittler for him is a no brainer…right?
(Also, account for the devaluation of players based on 40 man spots – the Pirates can’t roster all of those guys)
That’s an important consideration as well WCSox fan. You can’t just throw a bunch a 40 man guys into it. A Yankee offer would definitely include Schlittler and Lombard but I don’t think the Yankees have the guys needed to get the Pirates to seriously consider moving Skenes.
That is what dumbfounds Pirates fans at this point.
Skenes is practically untradeable as it would take too many fine players of ML or near ready ML caliber to get him,including at least two premium players.
He is only one pitcher,and the main problem with the Archer trade was that that one pitcher started having arm problems.
There are only a couple of organizations who could actually meet the price.
But the Pirates do not want to trade him for at least two more years.
What if we include Yordan+? LOL
1) a player’s value isn’t based on how much they play. It’s based on how much they produce.
so jones and and lombard and raymond mola have the same value as non have produced yet.
“you have wells who did worse than dominguez but worth double the value than either?”
better war … better ops+ and just completed his first fullish season and also he has one more year of controllability. should they be equal dollars no i dont think that but definitely closer than almost double.
“Also the fact it would allow for an 8 vs 2 make me question the logic in the calculations as well unless an override was involved.”
Do, do you think this is MLB the Show or something? What are you talking about “overrides”?
overrides as in are you sure you want to make a trade that hasnt existed since before majority of the current teams existed? Its kind of like saying lets factor in skenes is going to pitch 300+ innings this year. Also for the record in franchise mode not even mlb the show would allow this type of trade.
“How did our model do at the 2025 deadline?
A how are you measuring value of guys that have not played yet or have played poorly? Lets look at one of the more recent trades say the robert jr trade where they are saying that was a horrible trade for the mets but pretty much every analyst is saying this is a win for the mets? Even the Peralta trade there are saying it is a loss for them and by almost 25% yet everyone is touting how great it is for the mets. Thats just the last two met trades.
Im also intelligent enough not to just trust a ranking blindly either. Use your brains actually look at something use that intelligence you supposedly have. My guess is you were one of those that thought you could turn on cruise control and go to sleep. Gimme 5 bucks and you can have the brooklyn bridge.
Roll
“so jones and and lombard and raymond mola have the same value as non have produced yet.”
No.
“better war ”
Wells fWAR 3.0
Dominguez fWAR 0.6
“i dont think that but definitely closer than almost double”
What do you think Wells’ trade value should be? What do you think Dominguez’ trade value should be? Show your work. Here’s your chance to shine.
“overrides as in are you sure you want to make a trade that hasnt existed since before majority of the current teams existed? Its kind of like saying lets factor in skenes is going to pitch 300+ innings this year. Also for the record in franchise mode not even mlb the show would allow this type of trade”
Again. This is your non-understanding of what the model does. Not a a fault in the model.
“A how are you measuring value of guys that have not played yet or have played poorly? Lets look at one of the more recent trades say the robert jr trade where they are saying that was a horrible trade for the mets but pretty much every analyst is saying this is a win for the mets? Even the Peralta trade there are saying it is a loss for them and by almost 25% yet everyone is touting how great it is for the mets. Thats just the last two met trades”
Question: You have the data for the accuracy of BTV’s numbers.
What’s the data for “pretty much every analyst”?
We both know that you don’t have it
So why do you trust “pretty much every analyst” over the model?
And if it’s “pretty much every” that means some disagree, correct? How do you know which analysts are correct which aren’t?
Also, can you please provide some citations to analysts disagreeing with BTV?
And how do these analysts measure the value of guys that haven’t played yet, or have played poorly? Don’t they suffer from the same limitations as the model?
These are not rhetorical questions. Please respond to them directly. If you don’t, I know you’re not actually interested in any serious discussion and there’s no reason for me to continue this interaction (or any future one, really, since this is the crux of the whole issue).
“Im also intelligent enough not to just trust a ranking blindly either. Use your brains actually look at something use that intelligence you supposedly have. ”
Who’s trusting a ranking blindly?
What are you talking about?
This has strong “Do your own research, by that I mean watch a YouTube video by someone peddling supplements, instead of listening to your doctor” energy.
Here’s the challenge, if you think your out of the [butt] player valuations are better than this model. Put up your data. Otherwise…you know.
Trade value isn’t always accurate. Certainly not in this case.
Astros
“Trade value isn’t always accurate. Certainly not in this case.”
Maybe you’ll be the first person to give a decent answer.
How do you know when BTV isn’t accurate?
BTV is never accurate. Look at the posts on here about what BTV said Peralta was worth and what the Brewers got.
Look at players actual values and what BTV says their value is. You posted a BTV value for a player coming off a 5+ WAR season and 14.4 WAR over the last 3 and BTV said his value was $27 million.
Just stop wasting your time on BTV and look at what Steve and Tim and Anthony are saying it would take in their chats. Listen to former GMs on MLB Network when they talk about what it would take. BTV is never even close to reality.
Yordan Alvarez, Brice Matthews, Spencer Arrighetti, Miguel Ullola, Bryce Mayer, and Jeremy Pena for Skenes.
Is that enough enough for Skenes? Nobody will pay the price.
Bitb
“BTV is never accurate”
Verifiably false. Unlike all the ignorant commenters, they actually audit their work.
“How did our model do at the 2025 deadline?
…
Number of trades: 64
Number accepted by the model: 57
Acceptance rate: 88%
Average value variance per deal: 3.5
…
it’s a bit of an improvement on last year, where our acceptance rate was 83% and the average variance was 3.7.”
baseballtradevalues.com/articles/2025-trade-deadli…
Bitb
“You posted a BTV value for a player coming off a 5+ WAR season and 14.4 WAR over the last 3 and BTV said his value was $27 million.”
Which player was that?
Based on this sentence, there’s no reason to think you have any understanding of trade value. You left out some very important information. Namely, how much they are being paid and how much longer their contract is
Make be close in btv fantasy land but not real world. Skenes 138 million. You are going to want another 100m guy or 2 70m or 3 50m etc. If it was just about similar value you would trade 138 lotto tickets rule 5 draft fodder.
Yeah, a lot of fans just like making trades off of BTV and think it’s a done deal.
For example, someone decided to trade Issac Paredes, Bryan King, AND Walker Janek for Wilyer Abreu. Sure, Abreu is good but is not worth a high leverage lefty with FIVE years of control, top catching prospect, and slugger.
Jesus Sanchez for unranked prospect that was last ranked in 2022! A three team trade that got the Astros Brady Singer and Trevor Kuncl. Kuncl isn’t even ranked!!! And we sent out a pitching prospect and a lefty reliever that’s solid with FOUR years of control. Singer has 1, he isn’t even worth Sousa, much less Sousa AND Pecko. The other one traded Nick Gonzalez and Joey Bart for Issac Paredes and Steven Okert. This trade is so bad. So is Paredes for Will Benson and Brady Singer. Lots of people make their trades off of it, and their trades suck. Totally agree.
I’ve never used BTV, I put together my trade proposal based on what I thought could sway the Pirates and what I thought the Yanks could afford to send out.
That calculator says the Yanks are short 26M, Id disagree. I think the Yanks could pull back Dominguez and its still a deal.
How about this lineup for some power:
(RF) Esmerlyn Valdez (AA)
(SS) Konnor Griffin (AAA)
(CF) Edward Florentino (A+)
(LF) Spencer Jones (AAA)
(1B) Ivan Brethowr (A+)
(3B) Murf Gray (A)
(DH) Jhostnyxon Garcia (MLB)
(C) Austin Wells (MLB)
(2B) Termarr Johnson (AAA)
BN – Tony Blanco Jr. (A)
BN – Easton Carmichael (A+)
BN – Wyatt Sanford (A)
BN – Estuar Suero (A)
Thats the Pirates system and a pair of players off the Yanks from the Skenes trade I proposed above.
Plus four potential top of the rotation SPs in Warren, LaGrange, Hess and Rodriguez-Cruz to pair with Chandler, Ashcraft, Harrington and Jones.
Mlodzinski, Barco, Kelly in the bullpen. A lot needs to develop but I like that team.
But that wasn’t enough for Skenes.
ABS the fact that you think you can get Skenes without sending Schlittler and Lombard probably your two best young players plus more shows me you just don’t get it. This is why Skenes isn’t tradable at this time and I promise you this if it didn’t start with Schlittler, Lombard, and Dominguez that just just gets you into the conversation if he’s really available it would go from there. Is that something you would be comfortable starting a deal for Skenes and that just gets you a seat at the table. It will take more because other teams would be involved.
That lineup is weak and the 5 best players in it are already Pirates.
It would take a top 5 prospect or 2 top 20 to get Skenes and the Yankees have neither. Crochet got 2 top 50 with 2 years left so Skenes should do at least the same. 1 year of Burnes Peralta got 2 top 100ish.
Yankees can’t get Skenes now. Don’t have the prospects. You’re package is Ashcraft maybe Bubba material with btv # but in real life not happening. Pirates can’t fix guys striking out so what are they going to do with Jones? He’ll be a less much less athletic Cruz at best or a Jack Suwinski.
Yankees top 3 top 100 can get any pirate not named Skenes. Wouldn’t take all 3 but at least 1 depending on player. Probably take both of the pitchers. Bubba Ashcraft already shown at mlb level so why trade them for a prospect. Both though would be tempting. Probably take Lombard though and one of those pitchers.
@Bruin1012 — I like Schlittler too but cant include all the Yankees young pitchers.
I think Warren is going to be the better pitcher.
I also think Volpe is better than Lombard Jr. — dont have the same affinity for Lombard Jr. as I have for Jones and Pirates need a C — that is why included Wells. Jones and Wells is about as good as it gets.
The trade I proposed is already a coup for the Pirates, and as I have been saying, I think adding Dominguez was too much. The four pitchers coming from the Yankees are all top 100 — to me that trade is five top 100 prospects and a young MLB catcher who could be really good.
AIGM
“Make be close in btv fantasy land but not real world”
BTV only compares the values of the players in the trade
It doesn’t make any attempt to say if it’s a reasonable trade or not.
Astros
“Lots of people make their trades off of it, and their trades suck.”
That’s because a lot of people, you and ABS included, it appears, don’t understand what BTV is and what it isn’t.
You assume, based on nothing, that you know more than the creators
BTV DOES NOT attempt to say if a trade makes sense. It only compares the value of the players
ABS
“short 26M, Id disagree”
Based on what? You haven’t calculated any players trade value
AI it would take more than two top 20 prospects to get Skenes. Skenes is controlled until 2030 his value is almost immeasurable. If you put him on the Red Sox a 1,2,3 of Crochet, Skenes, Suarez would be downright lights out in a playoff series. The Red Sox would immediately be the favorite to win the AL and would be scary for any team to play. The same goes for the Yankees if they get Skenes they are the favorite in the AL. Just about any contending team becomes the favorite if they add Skenes. The Pirates can ask for whatever they want because it would be all out bidding war the offer that ABS came up with be woefully short, not even close and the reason would be because he’s a complete game changer. His value is so high it would have to be an astronomical overpay to get him there just hasn’t been a player like him with this much control ever traded that I can remember of. There is no comp for this type of trade that’s why I think he’s not tradable. The cost would be so prohibitive no team will take that risk. The Pirates would trade him for a so called fair deal what even is a fair deal we don’t know. The Red Sox would be able to offer a much better deal than the ABS Yankee offer but they won’t because in doing so they mortgage the future and god forbid he blows his arm out, he’s just not tradable at this time.
“ Pirates wouldn’t trade him for a so called fair deal”
It doesn’t even do that. At the very least LaGrange Jones should be close in value.
No two top 20 get it done. And it’s not just two top 20 thats just the starting point. Crochet got two top 50 plus additional. And it’s not going to be #19 #20 It could be #1 and 19 in a world KG isn’t 1 or a 4 12. Pirates don’t want to trade him but if they wanted to that’s what they would ask and may have trouble finding teams willing to pay it but they aren’t going to pay much more. If Padres don’t have the farm system and they currently don’t I don’t know who would pay it. 1 of these prospects doesn’t often get traded don’t know if 2 ever have. And it’s one of the best top 20 of all time. 2023 2024 drafts were some of the best classes of all time. 2025 was strong. 2026 looks to be even better. International signings have been strong.
The values BTV places on the players is what is the fantasy.
When is the last time a guy with 4 years of control a guy who just won the Cy Young in his second year and probably would of won the Cy Young in his rookie year if the Pirates didn’t try and manipulate his clock was traded AI? That would be never there is no comp your just guessing at value. The Tigers could offer Kevin McCongile, Max Clark, and Bryce Rainer that’s 3 top 30’s including 2 in the top 10 and that probably doesn’t get it done. The reason is they are prospects they haven’t done it at the big league level. Paul Skenes is a sure thing with health without manipulation he’s a two time Cy young award winner in his first two seasons he still has 4 years of control his value is something that models try to measure but they can’t because there are no comps. Pittsburg isn’t trading him until he has two years of control is my prediction but they may be contending by that time so who knows what I do know is they aren’t trading him this year.
Pittsburgh also shouldn’t mess around if Konner Griffin shows he’s ready in spring training let him go. Don’t mess around with him start him and never look back. Konner Griffin might be that special talent that along with Paul Skenes pushes the Pirates to playoff contention. I’m not a Pirate fan but he’s must see TV and appears to be a special, special talent.
“That would be never there is no comp your just guessing at value.”
Impressive. You are much smarter than I thought you were. Correct there is no comp hence the guessing. If there was a comp there would be no need for so much guessing because there is a comp. Again very impressive. I am surprised you were able to figure that out but impressed none the less. I’ll let you and Juan have the battle of the minds from here. Article getting long in tooth to keep coming back to and not finding the discussion simulating.
Is that a complement? Or an insult?
Can be either from a certain point of view
Exactly, that’s why I’m asking you. Did you mean it as an insult or a complement. I’m taking that as an insult.
Its awesome that yankees fans are jealous of the pirates roster
That’s all I’ll say
…..enter stage right…..
Walker, Taijuan Walker and I am here to start….
Unless they get another starter, the Phillies need him for their rotation. Wheeler, Nola, and Painter are all question marks for different reasons.
Nobody need taijuan
Except the Phillies.
They may be happy that they have him.
“Jones told reporters, including Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, that he’s worked…”
Didn’t the Post Gazette close?
Is Colin Beazley like that Japanese WW2 solider who kept fighting on that island until 1973 or so?
No one told him so he just keeps doing his job.
I like the joke. I believe the Post Gazette wraps on May 3rd
Thanks.
I also liked the joke and I figured it would illicit the correct info from a pool of people likely to know, so this worked out well.
Skenes is generationally good. The rest of that staff is pretty darn solid. If they had signed some guys who could hit or field, they win a fair few games. I reckon if they sat just below middle in runs per game scored and middle in D stats as a team, they’d go .500
They did pick up some guys. Brandon Lowe via trade and Ryan O’Hearn on a FA deal.
While those are 2 above average lefty bats, they really show their value when placed in a lineup with fellow lefties Cruz, Horwitz and switch hitters Mangum and Reynolds.
RHP is going to have a tough time against the Pirates lefty loaded lineup
Pirates are finally taking advantage of the short RF wall at PNC, and trying to exploit an advantage against RHP
Other than Konnor and Reynolds they cant hit LHP at all, but likely will sign Suarez/Cutch etc.
Seeing a very worthy strategy unfolding under Cherington this offseason
There’s definitely signs of light at the end of a very long dark tunnel. Let’s hope good fortune shines on PNC and we get a window like the early ’90’s and 2012-15.
Anyone but Patrick Corbin, please!!
Andrew Heaney again?
Corbin is actually my top choice
I think Pirates are good on pitching but could add someone, however, pony up for Geno!
Skenes and the mediocres. Skenes is the 2nd best pitcher in baseball. Truly extraordinary. Then there are two #3 types in Chandler and Keller. Then depth starters, guys that are 6-7-8 on any good team. All I can think of to say about that situation is ouch and I’m sorry Pirates fans.
You’re sorry for….?
Who are you again….and why should any Pirates fan care?
Behind stinging a bit hearing the truth? As I said, I do feel sorry for you.
Bitb
“I do feel sorry for you”
I don’t think you do
I think you’re small person that you try to make yourself feel better by putting others down. And you’re so pathetic that you try to insult others by insulting their baseball team. Maybe your fragile self-worth is tied up in something so inconsequential, but most people’s isn’t. Not everyone is that pathetic.
I’m pity YOU. You come across as much more pathetic than someone whose favorite baseball team isn’t very good.
pity is popular among losers who have no clue and can’t understand why they are treated with disdain
Baseball is the best,but you are the worst.
Get a life before it is too late.
OK BTV guy. I feel sorry for Pirates fans because their team is going to lose again this year. Next year too. They are going to watch a generational talent be traded away after the 2027 season if not sooner. And there really isn’t any hope of it getting better any time soon. If you don’t feel sorry for them, what does that say about you? That you lack empathy and compassion. What a horrible way to go through life.
Nobody other than BTV guy is expressing his pity.
I genuinely feel sorry for real Pirates fans because they have to suffer through Nutting and the continual and continuing losing he has imposed on a once proud franchise just to pad his wallet. I feel sorry for them because they know that even having Skenes won’t help them win enough to make the playoffs and that he absolutely will be come in 2 years or less.
Bitb
“I genuinely feel sorry for real Pirates fans”
I don’t believe you
Your previous comments sure didn’t have that tone
What you do not take into account is what is going to happen in 2027 when the players association realizes that their players are not going to get paid the whole year.
This throws all of your negativity about Nutting out of the window.
Do you realize how the big market teams get players?They poach them from the small market teams and the lower half of the mid market teams.
You think that you are Nostradamus but you are just a negative poster.
I presume that I am not the BTV poster that you address because I am not one.
Who knows if you even root for a team because you are just generally argumentative and negative and have the hutspah to come onto a Pirates article and spew your pity for the Pirates fans.
We do not want it nor need it especially from negative posters like you.
Horrendous take. Ashcraft and Jones are serious pitchers. Ashcraft is going to take a huge step forward this year.
Odds are Barco will be good enough. They could use 1 legit veteran to pencil in.
Naw. They have Keller.
They need another bat
I think both would be preferable. They’ve moved Falter, Oviedo, and Burrows. Oviedo didn’t pitch much last year but that’s a lot of young guys on innings limits and coming back from injury. A guy who has thrown 160+ innings to add in wouldn’t be the worst thing. Can possibly flip that guy at the deadline if the young guys are all working out.
Skenes carried most of the load last season and 73 of the other 130 starts are no longer there. Keller is a definite #3 starter. The rest are unproven and not likely to be as good as the pitchers they are replacing. Everything was correct no matter how much it hurts to face that.
Baseballisthebest…butyousrethebust..TROLL
That is why they need someone like Quintana.
“Then there are two #3 types in Chandler”
Chandler is the #2 RHP prospect in baseball per MLB Pipeline and the #14 overall. Calling him a #3 type seems premature.
The Pirates fans getting all up in arms when someone tells them their team is not very good. Just accept reality like we have had to do in Anaheim. The Pirates haven’t sniffed the playoffs since 2015 and they won’t this season either. Take hope, Nutting will have to sell or move to the next realm eventually.
All prospects are suspects until they prove otherwise. Personally I don’t think calling someone a #3 starter is the insult you obviously do. If Chandler can become a #3 starter it means he has stayed healthy and is in roughly the top half of all MLB starting pitchers. That is pretty good in my book.
Last season Chandler was about an average starter in the pitcher friendly International League and about average in the majors when he got his call up. Now he has to prove that his prospect ranking means something and that what he has shown on the field is not who he is.
The reality is this.
Nutting is cheap.
Moreno is just stupid.
Everyone and their dog knew that paying Josh Hamilton was the dumbest thing in the world.
Not Arte.
Nutting is at least trying to spend when he has the potential for a good team,something that he has not had for ten years.
Arte is still Arte.
The Pirates even as they are now have the potential to be a 500 team.
That is not a small thing in Pittsburgh where baby steps at least give the hope of someday walking upright.
You guys could not win with Trout and Shohei.
I know that misery loves company,and Pirates fans have had to keep their rose colored glasses for far too long.
But the hope is that MLB will finally get smart and put a salary cap and floor into it,even at the expense of a lost season,and the small market teams will have a chance to compete for a World Championship like the Yankees and Dodgers,and,yes,the Angels have had for many many years.
A prospect that had an ERA over 4 in AAA last season in a league that favors pitchers. Then when called up had a 5.19 ERA in his starts. I was being generous in calling him a #3 so don’t get all offended at hearing the truth.
Only 2 HR and 4 BB in 31.1 IP. The Pirates were 3-1 in Bubba’s starts. He had one bad outing vs the best team in the regular season, Brewers. He’ll be fine.
Worst-Bubba was bored to tears after he started out on fire in AAA.
The Pirates were wasting pitches for him in AAA for about a month.
It always amazes me when outsiders think that they are experts on every team in the league.
Does he mean a #3 starter right now? Or a ceiling of a #3 starter?
He’s a #3 starter right now, and has a ceiling of a frontliner.
Pirates SPs were 5th in fWAR and 6th in FIP and ERA last season and many of their young guys had their pitch counts absolutely babied. Ashcraft won’t this year and Skenes will get more innings which will obvious help a ton. This will be a top 3 staff this season.
Without Skenes they were 17th in ERA and 18th in FIP. It helps to have an unworldly good guy at the top of the rotation. Skenes had 32 starts and 187.2 IP. He won’t exceed that by much.
73 of the Pirates starts and the 3.91 ERA those pitchers had in those starts last season are gone. They are being replaced by 2 young guys that had a total of 12 starts, 52.2 IP, and a 4.01 ERA in those starts. They could continue that, they could improve, or they could suffer from the sophomore curse.
The article we are commenting on is about who is going to start beyond that.
The Pirates staff will not be a #3 staff. not with just one really good pitcher and a bunch of question marks.
Since you are making projections, I will give you the projections others are making for that staff. FGDC on Fangraphs is saying that Skenes will be around a 2.92 ERA and all the rest of the starters over a 4.00. Keller 4.35, Ashcraft 4.08, Chandler 4.30, and Mlodzinki 4.12.
Pecota is a little more optimistic than Fangraphs for the squad as a whole led by Skenes with a 2.76 ERA.
I am a little more optimistic than that and I think Skenes will be around a 2.20 or 2.30 ERA and the rest over 4.00 with at least one over 5.00.
Either way the Pirates will not be in the to 10 in starting pitching.
Take the Ace away from any staff and see how their numbers change negatively. Come on man…🤦🏻♂️
I don’t think I could have laid it out any better LF. I don’t think Pirates fans want to hear the facts though.
No. They just get tired of people who want to be contrarian and do what amounts to mischief on a message board. Your posts are akin to lighting dog-do on fire on my porch, ringing the doorbell and running away. You’ve said nothing of substance since your time on these threads. Nothing of relevance. You are here to see if you can start some trouble, nothing more. You’re about the same kind of guy KelencicsEnemaBag is.
It’s been a perfect thread for trolls and you should feel right at home. I’m finished reading one word of your abject stupidity
Lol even without Skenes their rotation has some crazy good young arms
Out-The Pirates will not be #3 but could easily be in the 8,9,or 10 spot.
They lost Burrowes and Oviedo who had decent era’s of 3.5-4.0 but averaged less than 5 innings per start.
They lost Falter which I thought was a mistake but other than May when he was better than Skenes his era was about 4.6.
Cherington is famous for trading proven pitching depth and not getting anything in return.
They had Andrew Heaney who after April skewed the results the other way.
Mlodzinski is not a starter and should be the fine long man which is needed on a team with young starting pitchers.
They need one more veteran starter like Quintana which if he works out and is superfluous can be traded at the deadline.
Prospects are suspects until proven in the ML’s but some prospects are much better than others.
These young pitchers are unproven but based on their minor league records and rankings as prospects I think that Pirates fans are justified in thinking that there is a high ceiling for them if they stay healthy.
Hell nah.
Who is better than Skenes?
The guy who keeps winning the Cy in the AL…
First 2 years Skenes has shown that he is a beast, no offense to Skubal or any others.
This is just an very uninformed opinion. Chandler has Ace potential. Jones does as well. Ashcraft poised to become what would be a 2 on a lot of teams. Let’s revisit this take in September…
Chandler had an ERA over 4 in a pitcher friendly league in AAA and a 5.19 ERA in his starts for the Pirates.
One bad outing vs Brewers in his 7 rookie appearances.
Chandler looked great overall. Pretty expected for a young pitcher to get hit hard against a lineup like MIL that’ll grind out abs.
Ended his season on a nice run and the 31/4 K/W ratio is fantastic. You can see why he’s a consensus top 15 prospect. Skenes/Chandler/Jones/Ashcraft/Keller figures to be a great rotation. Add in Barco who I like as a backend starter long term. Just need to figure out how to put an offensive core together….
For some reason Kelly left him in when he was getting bombed.It destroyed his era.
Cherington got him in the second or third round by saving money on Henry as the #1 pick.
He had 4 starts with the Pirates. 4.
He was mediocre in AAA. In a pitchers league.
You have basically lost all credibility which is difficult to do for any poster with a brain.
Corbin always shut the Bucs down, even when everyone else was beating him like a drum. Might be a good investment just to avoid facing him.
I have not heard his name mentioned anywhere but I remember Bailey Falter having quite a few quality starts last year for the Pirates. After his disaster in KC last year Cherington could get him for cheap. His soft tossing could fit in well with the hard throwing rest of the staff.
Since Falter came into the league, his speed has been called deceptive by many. Throws around 92 but to the batter looks more like 96 thanks to his release point and arm angle.
The Pirates have had numerous soft throwing lefties signed off the scrap heap recently. I wouldn’t say Falter was one of them
Maybe even get Falter for a waiver claim. Can’t wait for that though and there are better pitchers available in free agency. A lot of people want Barco in rotation. I want him in AAA. Willing to bet some starter misses some starts. Bold prediction.
I think with Barco you just see what he does in ST.I would really hate to lose a year of him like we did for Skenes though.
Not sure that for certain periods six starters would be a terrible thing.
If they do have a good team you want these guys who do not have a lot of innings under their belt being fresh during the second half of the season.Could that be a reason why Keller goes downhill every year?
Mitch Keller was 1-3 with an ERA of 3.45 and 34 strikeouts in 6 appearances between August 20, 2025 and September 30, 2025
Nothing downhill about that.
Mitch Keller was 4-9 with an ERA of 3.59 and 99 strikeouts in 22 appearances between April 5, 2025 and August 12, 2025
Several of us have noted a downturn in the second half.It may not have occurred last year.
I checked his career stats but could not find stats just for the second half of each year.
Fake news by yinzers who like to spread a false narrative. Didn’t occur in 2024 either.
Mitch Keller had a 1-3 record with an ERA of 3.49 and 34 strikeouts in 5 appearances between August 15, 2024 and September 19, 2024
Mitch Keller had a 10-5 record with an ERA of 3.20 and 118 strikeouts in 22 appearances between March 27, 2024 and August 8, 2024
It’s called a few awful outings and when you are a loser team with no bullpen you just leave him in to eat innings even if he doesn’t have his stuff that day or was unlucky.
Fake news. What was your and others agenda in slandering Keller with your false narrative?
Mitch Keller was 1-3 with an ERA of 3.49 and 34 strikeouts in 5 appearances between August 15, 2024 and September 19, 2024
Mitch Keller had a record of 10-5 with an ERA of 3.20 and 118 strikeouts in 22 appearances between March 27, 2024 and August 8, 2024
Called a few awful games on a losing team with no bullpen who just let him eat up innings even if he didn’t have his stuff or was unlucky.
This Bigfoot myth probably comes from 2023 where he had multiple awful games in July September but was still able to have this impressive stretch.
Mitch Keller had a record of 2-0 with an ERA of 2.03 and 37 strikeouts in 5 appearances between August 4, 2023 and September 7, 2023
Pitched that 8 innings 2 hitter 0 runs late September but yeah 2023 he was very inconsistent especially 2nd half.
I can agree that people seem to pick stats that support their views. I’ve always liked Keller but know that each year he will invariably go through a stretch of 4-5 starts in a row where he mysteriously can’t keep his fastball out of dead red and “loses the feel” on his spin pitches
I ask you stop with the “fake news” tag for whomever you respond to, however. It’s reflective of ignorance, partisanship and gas lighting that emanates from a cult that refuses to acknowledge fact as it disturbs their prepubescent mindsets. I’ve had enough of it. You’re better than that, or at least I always thought so
First off no yinzers are slandering Keller.Many of us speak as one in saying what we said about his second half woes.
The more mature mature ones think he is a solid #3 which is hardly slandering someone who earns his $16 M a year.
Your histrionics is being called out as it should be.
I do not know where you are getting these numbers but it seems to come easily for you to do if they are real numbers.
You are right about some of the Pirates,aka your buddy Cherington’s ways of dealing with pitchers and leaving them in to take a beating when they do not have their good stuff.
What I am looking for is simple- Keller’s era after the AS break every year that he has been a full time starter.
March is not in the second half of the season.
September 7 is not the end of the season.
Are you cherry picking numbers to make your point?
I try hard to remember that AI was slandered here by a Yankees fan who called him a troll and said he should just be muted. The Three Amigos were the only ones who commented in his defense. There’s a fine line between being somewhat knowledgeable and being a boor. I’ve just about had enough
I seen 2 games in a row sure. Maybe 3. But I would be interested in these 4 and 5 games and how long ago they were. I just looked at 23 24 25 and don’t recall seeing them.
And no I won’t stop using the term fake news. I and many others used it before he who shall not be named ever did. If the lil tds minds believe he created it and it’s somehow a show of support f them I don’t care because it’s fake news.
I got the numbers right off of baseball reference. I am assuming they are correct you check to see if you question their authenticity.
“It’s called a few awful outings and when you are a loser team with no bullpen you just leave him in to eat innings even if he doesn’t have his stuff that day or was unlucky.”
I guess it’s cherry picking? I dunno I wasn’t hiding anything. I admitted I left a few games out.
The term “fake news” comes from a cult whose collective intelligence reflects the idea that no matter what they are shown as factual, they will balk and say it’s not true. I suspect that with these types of individuals, I’d say it’s frigid outside and they’d say no, they’re wearing shorts as they go to Giant Eagle. It’s prepubescent and unintelligent
But do as you like
I appreciate the defense of me but don’t need it. They are welcome to mute me. Not like I won’t keep talking to them. And most will unmute me because they just have to know what I am saying.
And yeah I won’t stop using the fake news. It’s a term myself and many others have been using a long time. He who shall not be named didn’t create it. He stole it from Hillary Clinton. She’s a old rich woman so she didn’t create it. Probably one of her staffers staffers staffers interns intern. It was a online young person term. Old rich man and woman didn’t create it. Opinion but I find politicians take more than they give and in this case they didn’t give the world the term fake news. He who shall not be named simply made it famous. If people want to think it some kind of political thing that’s on them. If you have noticed yet I will let you in on a lil secret. I don’t care what people think about me. I have real problems and things to handle. If you don’t that’s freaking awesome and hope it continues for you. If you want to mute me or think I support he who shall not be named awesome. I am glad your life is so fantastic you have to worry about mine.
So the starts I and others like TheMan3 have seen and called out for being shelled for 5 or 6 runs before we are in the 3rd inning have been not only illusions but were because of the bullpen woes. Ok. Got it.
Once again, I shouldn’t believe what my eyes have seen
Yes, you and Juan should be good friends
I don’t care who you support, really. You’re simply using the same dog whistle. You can attribute it to something you’ve always said and yet, it’s become en vogue in this era to defend to the masses what is indefensible and incomprehensible.
And you also cross the line in making a personal attack here. A message board is opinion by its very nature. There are no right answers here, including yours. I pointed out that your opinions were defended by long time posters here and you responded with boorishness. I didn’t want thanks or acknowledgement but wanted to say publicly that your opinions have always been appreciated. Nothing more. Nothing about your life or mine, or personal issues. This is supposed to be a respite from real world problems, concerns and worries. Instead, you make it appear as if any dissenting viewpoint is just that, something personal from know-nothings or “yinzers” who aren’t at your level of expertise.
“The term “fake news” comes from a cult”
That’s fake news. It comes from what people online were saying about the ridiculous untrue news reporting that was occurring.
You just regurgitated what the cult would say.
As expected. It’s a dog whistle for the intellectually constipated
If you want to take yinzers as an insulting term that’s on you. Most the ones I know have fun with the term. I don’t know the history of it but in my lifetime and experiences it’s quite harmless and fun.
Insult? I am happy to have been born and raised here, and to have worked here. I don’t now and have never said “yinz” in my conversational repertoire. But it’s common to hear it, hence the term
The problem is how outsiders use it denote the idea of blue collar, uneducated slobs. As if their very opinions are borne out of ignorance
But yeah, harmless. Fun. Sure
No the cult regurgitated what I said because I said it before the cult even knew that slang existed.
Your the first person I ever seen offended by it. I heard Pittsburgh radio podcast comedians all having fun with it and still are. I’m pretty sure one uses welcome yinzers as their opening. Anyways I wasn’t using it to insult Mendoza. He’s a Kensingtonizer
I don’t take it as an insult because really, I don’t care. It’s a funny term. Outsiders use it to depict locals as being almost Neanderthal in their ability to think. Among ourselves however, it’s more a colloquialism
Maybe it used to be a insult and still is in some areas and some demographics. I think now if I asked people in random states majority would have no idea what it is. Heck majority doesn’t know a lot of things. Ever watch the man on the street videos? Seems like they are acting but I met many just like them. I wonder how many people not from Pittsburgh can spell Pittsburg?
It’s like referring to Pittsburgh as “The Steel City”. My grandfathers worked in the mills. Some of my uncles. But really, it’s been untrue for 40 years now unless you count US Steel being headquartered here
It’s hard to believe this city was once a top 10 market. Now, it’s barely top 30
That is because manufacturing has left this country and hopefully someone brings it back before it is too late.
Pittsburgh used to be the third largest corporate headquarters in the country.
No more.
I grew up not too far from New Kensington along the Allegheny River and know how to get there.
I do not frequent the Kensington that you are speaking about and do not care to find out exactly where it is.
I do not like needles.
Just roll with Barco instead of going after Falter again. Most of his quality starts with the Pirates in 2025 were in May. It’s been like his only good month since getting off to a hot start in 2024.
MLB-Falter would be good depth but you and I have disagreed on that need several times before.
That was one of the many bad Cherington trades.
He hates to keep good depth.
Falter may very well do better with Carmen as the long men.
That used to be the last pitching spot on the team but now is especially very important with all of the young hard throwers that the Pirates have.
Falter had been a good addition and one of the only A trades for Cherington but he had to screw it up.
My projections have falter right around a 5 era. Where he should have been last year. He’s a 4.50 to 5.50 era guy. He was really lucky good last year. I wasn’t pleased with the trade return first thoughts but after looking into it deeper yeah fake era guy.
I remember taking out the almost May results and he had a 4.6 era for the rest of the year with the Pirates
His 2025 era with the Pirates was 3.73
He was not himself in Kansas City.
His lifetime era of 4.58 is probably very accurate for future predictions.
He is also capable of coming in as a long reliever.
You and other statistic based souls think that depth is not important because in your mind Cherington can just go out and easily replace them as they are nobodies.
If he could do that easily he would not have had three 100 loss teams.
He had 3 100 loss seasons because Nutting wouldn’t give him any $ because he was still paying for the previous front office to sit at home. And what pathetic farm system the pirates had Huntington traded away it’s best pieces.
Yes, perhaps that’s all true
Unfortunately, he never could put a strong player development department into the franchise. Six years and not one position player who made an impact here. That’s almost unbelievable
And he has never improved upon the less than mediocrity in the three years since then.
That seems to be Cherington’s ceiling until he proves differently.
If it was up to Cherington Derek Shelton would still be the manager.
That tells you all you want to know about Cherington.
He has one more chance and has done well this off season.
But we are not talking Dave Dombrowski here.
I don’t discount the idea that BC has likely been forced to conduct business within tight financial constraints. Most Pirates fans accept that and know some of his trades were done with this in mind. We’ll never know. That’s never been my issue. Instead, if it’s true that like Neal before him he wished to use the TB model of development—mature—compete and repeat, he’s failed miserably.
I’m sure he’s a good man. Has a family. Likes dogs and is competent enough to have such a job. But just what recourse has he ever had than to draft and develop? Shouldn’t that be the only measuring stick?
It’s true for 2020 21 22. Conman or whatever the president name was Huntington Hurdle were there a long time. That means expensive. They just signed extensions for who knows how long. Any assistant gms director assistant directors vice president’s etc etc under contract needed to be paid. Farm system stunk. And then they traded for Archer. No gm who ever gm was making that team a winner. And obviously they didn’t even try and went into full rebuild.
Yeah player development stunk. Drafts stunk too. Gonzales Davis were weak 1st round picks. TJ not much better being a no doubt 2b. Didn’t find any gems later rounds either. Majority of other teams have the same problem I would assume. If you want to show me how great the other 29 teams are doing I’ll take a look. I assume LA TB MIL are doing well. But imagine many are having talent issues.
Bassitt #1, Corbin #2, Quintana #3. Get one of em!
Tauchman or Andujar to play LF against RHP
Danny Coulombe to improve the bullpen
This probably adds 1.5 wins to the Buccos and gives them an outside shot of being a wild card team with some good luck.
I’d rather see what Garcia can do than sign Andujar or Tauchman personally. Though I do like the idea of Columbe.
Depends if you’re trying to win this year. Projection systems are not high on Garcia, but granted, he’s 23 and only has about 300 PA past AA. He has two options remaining – I’d start him in AAA and bring in a vet who can hit above 100 wRC+ against RHP like Tauchman or Andujar. That’s probably a 1 WAR increase over playing Magnum everyday, rostering Jack Suwinski or letting Garcia struggle as a rookie.
And yes – bumping a guy like Nicolas or Yohan Ramirez off the roster for a solid middle reliever like Coloumbe is probably worth 0.5 WAR.
At that point, the team is 3.5 WAR off the Brewers according to Fangraphs for the last wild card spot. Maybe with some breakouts, the team can be in the hunt and add at the deadline.
Tauchman is okay, and I wouldn’t mind him. I just don’t want Andujar. He’s only good vs LHP, is a poor defensive outfieler, and he had a sub-.300 xwOBA last year. At that point, just see if Garcia can play well.
If you rather see what Garcia can do then don’t sign O’Hearn and trade for Lowe. I want less risky players and depth. Someone is most likely going to get hurt and Garcia will get his chance. Someone else likely gets hurts and Suwinski gets another chance. Much prefer not seeing Garcia at all but it’s nice to know there is something in AAA if needed.
They dont need any help against RHP
They need one single bat that can hit LHP
And the floor for that is in the bank at $5m max with Cutch, but he’s very difficult to shoehorn into the line up with zero def value and restricted to DH. Joey Bart is likely better at this stage against lefties and can catch.
I think the Bucs are seeing the flipside of why they’re so appealing to vet LH pitchers – RH power hitters know that PNC is kryptonite for their main skill.
THAT is why Suarez won’t sign, IMO, but I’d take Andujar or even Bohm (as a trade) over signing Cutch.
Garcia stays in AAA for a full year.Too many strikeouts and improve his power.
Nicolas has potential.Yohan has a high ceiling but a low floor and too many teams have realized that.
Cherington will not sign Andujar as he preferred Olivares and de La Cruz over him.
Nuff said on that one.
Tauchman is decent but does not have the power that they desperately need.
The AAA coaches are going to fix Garcia strike outs? I hope so. He probably will be in mlb though. Injuries. August September call up. Maybe not. Maybe the get lucky with health and sign another mlb outfielder.
Everyone will take Bohm at 3b including the Phillies
That may be true but they will not be in a hurry to resign him.
Part of my thought process was that they would like to get rid of his salary because they pay double for the tax.
If they would have signed Bichette to a ridiculous contract they would have traded Bohm.It now also shows that Middleton cares little about the absurd amount of the luxury tax that they would be paying if they signed Bichette.
The offer to Bichette proves that they will keep Bohm this year as his $10.7M salary is peanuts compared to the Bichette offer.
No team is in a hurry to re-sign players. If they really really wanted them they would have tried to get extension done.
Good young pitching, added some good bats so far, don’t fall for the “sign Geno” trap.
Tahoe- They need Suarez to round out their power hitting upgrade.
No more than two years and $40 M.
They will be a serious wild card contender with him.
I’d sign Corbin to a 3-4 million deal rn if I were the pirates. Other than the annual soft tossing lefty signing, their rotation is solid. I’d actually keep Ashcraft and Barco in the bullpen unless there rotation isn’t as good as projected because I worry about the relief Corp rn. Very excited for the Pirates
Have to use Ashcraft in the rotation at this point
Don’t get too excited or you will set off the dynamite.
Sugano makes sense. Crafty NPB vet who held his own pitching in the AL East. Eats innings and cheap too.
I only thought of him because the articles were side by side in the app, but I agree. Something else I think would be cool is Verlander as a bit of a mentor for Skenes.
Doesn’t seem like he needs a mentor
The best thing that both have in common respectively is their wife and girlfriend.
Skenes and Keller are basically sure thing rotation arms. Chandler and Ashcraft probably are.. Harrington and Barco could be rotation arms. Mlodzinski is a relief arm who can give you extended innings or spot starts if needed.
Hopefully Jones will be back to form mid-summer and be able give the rest of the rotation a break.
So do the pirates NEED another arm… clearly no. SHOULD they get one, probably not a bad idea.
Ya i think they could use a safety net, but dont necessarily need another arm
2027 these guys will all be ready to rock in larger roles
Yes they do for nothing other than depth and to ease the young pitchers into the amount of innings necessary to be pitched without ruining the bullpen.
exactly, if you take note of the ones mentioned. Skenes, Keller, Chandler, Ashcraft, Harrington, Barco, Mlodzinski = 7 arms which gives you some depth.
What does need to be addressed is that much of that depth is MLB unknown that an established veteran, even a washed up one could provide.
So as I say, NEED no, SHOULD Probably.
We also can’t assume that Jones makes it back to put in meaningful time, but if he does that gives that dept a break OR make someone a trade piece should he return earlier.
What about Tomoyuki Sugano?
Pirates need to trade with Mets for Brett Baty, fills the 3B slot and another lefty hitter with some pop.
Probably to high of a cost for a medium+ risk
Lineup has plenty of lefties with the additions of O’Hearn, Lowe, and Mangum (S).
Get more lefty bats. The #1 thing they need. Triolo Mangum are glove first guys. Gonzales should be last guy on 40 man and is currently freaking starting! Password is AAA. Yorke Suwinski are dfa candidates. Right Left Up Down I don’t care. Give me bats. Any bats. (That’s pretty good fun entertaining rant eh) Your welcome.
I actually like Gonzalez.He hustles and seems to be fundamentally sound.
He is close to an average hitter albeit with no power.
His salary is low and he is a team player who does not cause trouble.
The Pirates are not good enough to just throw him to the curb.
That being said at this point even though there is room for growth he really should not be starting on a good team.
The last thing they need is another lefty bat
Skenes and pray for rain?
Not even close. The Pirates have a good 1-4. After that there could be issues, especially if there are injuries.
the Pirates pitching staff led the majors with 19 shutouts
Its funny these guys dont realize that Chandler and Ashcraft would be any other orgs top young pitchers
Some posters think that they know a lot about other teams than they really do.
I venture into other teams articles as well. I grade pretty much every trade signing and read some comments if it isn’t a captain obvious thing. Trust me they don’t know much about their own team either.
Pirates fans are so exception. They think 2023 2024 was just another no contending not trying year of never ending rebuild. Those were good trying to win years. Cherington did so good that Nutting thought he needed to be extended. They just see the 76 wins and forget at trade deadline they were above 500 few games back of playoff spot. Forget the reason they only won 76 was Holderman Bednar losing the ability to pitch and Shelton just kept using them hot and heavy. Not Cherington fault other than not firing Shelton so it is his fault. IKF Cruz isn’t his fault. The only options available so a desperate gm crossed his fingers and rolled the dice. It was either that or do nothing or over pay on a Winker who wouldn’t have helped anyways he was quite disappointing just not Cruz level disappointing. 2024 was a good season other than the final 2 months. Cherington was at his worst though after that trading for Yorke. But not firing Shelton is greater mistake than every other mistake Cherington has made combined. Sunk 2025 before it even started. The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 56-58 record since May 20, 2025. Not that bad of a team. Kelly the entire season probably doesn’t make playoffs or even winning record but would have been more entertaining.
Ai -I agree.Pirate fans are so exceptional.
Kelly is clearly a better manager than Shelton.Time will tell how good he is.
Your statement about the necessity of having a top #5 GM is accurate but those guys go to the big market teams.
I think that small market teams need a top 10 GM and by extension a top 10 manager in order to compete for the playoffs
The farm system seems to be better but is top heavy and will drop like a rock if and when the most highly rated players graduate to the Pirates.
You said maybe six months ago when I asked you about Termarr that his comparison would be Gonzalez.I think that both of us would lower Nick and raise Termarr at this point.I see him making the ML’s in September if they are not competing for the playoffs.
According to Dejan K Nutting had to fire Shelton.DK also got assurances that Cherington would be fired after the
2025 season.I really believe that if the Pirates do not produce this year that your guy will be gone especially if there are good veteran GM’s looking for a job.
I can assure you that Nutting knows Kelly’s record after May 20 and Cherington is hoping that he can save Ben’s job.
I wouldnt fire the guy who drafted Konnor Griffin and Bubba Chandler
Pirates GM is a terrible job for trying to win. I think Ben’s been one of the best we’ve had. The amount of good pitchers coming thru the system is incredible.
This offseason aside, they never spend so the focus should be on drafting, in which case ive been pleased year in and year out
Even when you factor in the spending this offseason, i think it was a brilliant plan to utilize budget for 2 LH bats and a top LH reliever.
This is the closest this team’s been to having a complete roster in my lifetime
Drafting hasn’t been the issue. Yes, his trades and signings have until this point been for scraps and to dump salary but the biggest black mark over his tenure has been the failure to develop young players. You’d hope he has seen this and brought in better instructors. Griffin is a generational player it would seem and one guy can’t propel a franchise himself unless we’re talking The Natural or Mr Baseball
I know that getting good instructors is like anything else; they come at a high price. But I also know there are good younger guys who can reach kids at the minor league level and would love to build their resumes. You just have to be willing to find them
Goku-With all due respect you must be ten years old then.
The 2013-2015 Pirates had the second best record in the ML’s.
That was a fine team.
Pirates interviewed the Brewers gm and picked Shelton so good gms were available to them that didn’t cost much $.
Don’t know what when I said about TJ. Floor is Gonzales but I expect him to be better and significantly.
KG Bubba were automatic picks. Congratulations Ben for not f ing it up.
Pirates could always scout develop pitching. Ben even said so at Pirates fest. Keller Ashcraft Burrows all Huntington guys. Could add Priester as well but Ben just gave him away.
Ben best ever? Other gms have won divisions and world series. Even Huntington 3 years playoffs in row. I think you are in the vast minority with that claim.
I kinda like Ben’s honesty. Why would you say that? He’s done stuff like that before.
I personally think that Ben is very good at certain things and very bad at others.
I have said all long that he needs someone over him who is a baseball person who can fill in the weaknesses and let him do his strengths.
In certain ways it is unfair to Ben and ideally the head of baseball operations would be a mentor so that Ben could bounce ideas off of and would work as a team.
I think that then you could see real progress in the trade areas and the hitter development that have been Ben’s weaknesses.
I don’t care whether they were automatic picks or not give credit to him for making them.
I think you mean Cherington for Shelton.
I am giving him credit for not messing them up like the Angels did. KG was by far best available player and they didn’t take him. Then right after that there was another just as obvious player and the Nats took someone else and Detroit got him. There is a big gap between Pirates Tigers farm system and LA WAS
Fangraphs DC projections
Player FIP fWAR/IP
Skenes 2.77 5.8/196
Keller 4.15 2.3/180
Chandler 4.29 1.9/150
Ashcraft 4.02 1.6/123
Jones 3.75 1.5/92
Barco 4.31 1.2/92
Mlodzinski 4.07 0.7/90
fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&t…
Deep and talented rotation. The F/O and ownership should add some position players beyond the averagey players they did.
If you feel the need to express that you are against projections, save it. No need to announce your mathematical illiteracy
Aye everybody we found the smart guy in the chat, he uses other smart people projections to seem smart
On
Muted. Troll
You spend most of your day trolling and then get sad when someone does it back… gg
Not sure how smart they are either Oppo.
Skenes has a 1.97 era after 55 starts in MLB.
Why are they saying that it will balloon to 2.77?
That in itself would make me question the accuracy of the rest of the projections since it is so far off the historic record.
Skenes has a 1.97 era after 55 starts in MLB.
Why are they saying that it will balloon to 2.77?
They said no such thing
What does Fangraphs projections mean?
Are they projecting for the year 2525?
What does FIP mean?
FIP fielding independent pitching. Supposed to be only things the pitcher controls.
Thank you.I looked it up in the interim and it seems to me that I remember this as being one of the first predictive measures for the new world stats from maybe 15-20 years ago.
I remember it because it seemed to only take into account the three results of strikeouts,walks,and home runs.
It started in use around the time that only big pitchers who could throw the fastest were wanted.
Thank God that we had Harvey Haddix and ElRoy Face in 1960.
Where is batting average,era,go/fo,hard hit %,stats that are very important and not really figured into the equation?
They are trying to take the infield and outfield out of the equation but to my mind that dumbs it down.Maybe they wanted to get something very basic at first but there are many more stats that could be used.
There also does not seem to be any method to override obvious deficiencies.
FIP still predicts the coming year era.It may have been an improvement when initially formulated but it seems to me that there are additional stats and methods that could be used to make it more accurately used
I find FIP weak as it uses hrs which involves too much luck. But still a upgrade over era. I don’t know when it came out but it’s been around. My guess mid 2000s so you may be right.
You can look into siera. I preferred it until I just started doing my own. Give it a go if you want. Or you may find siera to be everything you need. Or you may say just use era like majority of people. If you really want to predict the future you need to become a expert at scouting. If I really want to research I go to the video. That takes time so why the formulas are important. But teams have a analytics department and a scouting department for a reason.
Sierra seems better.
I find it interesting though that they say home runs are luck.
Someone has to hit it a long way and have the power to do so.
When Cruz actually hits a home run there is no luck about it.
I also find it odd that they try to isolate it from defense as if there are huge differences in fielding statistically among all of the teams..
I also think it a mistake to completely ignore era which is of particular importance as to whether a team wins a game.
They are trying to make it a communistic statistic based on the average of the general populace in order to take luck out of it.I consider luck to be the same as a normal variation for a particular pitcher.
I think that use of physical stats like drop or sweep and the swiftness of them along with pitch speed to be more predictive of future results than trying to put every pitcher into a barrel.Each pitcher is unique.Their arm angle and their height can affect how easy or tough they are to hit.
These methods probably are reasonably accurate for the middle competency but do not predict accurately those better or worse than average.
And FIP says Paul Skenes will have a 2.77 era next year based on the smoothing out of the statistics.
I’ll take the under and give odds.
And FIP says Paul Skenes will have a 2.77 era. No fip is fip. Nothing to do with era other than it’s just the pitchers era. His fip was 2 something last year.
They are saying hrs are luck for pitchers not hitters or not as much for hitters. And it is luck. Guys will pitchers exactly the same and have a 0 to 1.5 hr rate. Since hrs are luck and hitting is luck era is luck why you will see guys can be anywhere from 2 to 5 era even though they are healthy have their stuff and pitching the same year after year.
the only problem with the math is how people interpret it and remembering that it is harder to give a solid projection for those who have smaller samples at the MLB level
Projections are no more than models of future results based on past results.
They do not take into account the human factor.
For instance,the obvious one is basing them on an insufficient data quantity source.
Those ones are nothing more than guesses.
Also,how will someone do coming back from an injury?Especially with an insufficient data amount in the first place.
Also,the human element is involved in including a fine long reliever as a starter when his second time through the lineup has shown to be so poor.
That leaves Skenes and Keller as projectionables,and the projection on Skenes is sketchy at best based on his inhuman abilities.
So 1 out of 7 for sure is hitting 143 and even the Pirates hit better than that.
ML
Those were a lot of words to say “I don’t really understand projections”
Thanks
No.Those are a lot of words to say that the future cannot often be accurately predicted by data,especially when it is of insufficient sum and does not in other ways reflect the real world where real people will have to perform.
No,thank you.
ML215
“cannot often be accurately predicted”
Again. Tell me that you don’t know what a projection is without telling me (or yourself. The first step for you is to learn what a projection is. And isn’t).
I love projections but only my own.
AI GM
If you post them and their historical accuracy I’ll decide what I think of them
Thank you but I don’t need your pat on the back or to do the work of posting them.
Will just say Keller hasn’t had a fip that high since 2021. Has the best pitching coach and team by far he has had. I will take the under. And if Bubba Ashcraft fip is that high pirates need to have a fire sale. And if Bubba and Barco fip is that similar a lot of scouts front office management and prospect ranking sites firings need to occur. If all those pitchers have 4 something fips I will stop scouting and creating formulas and just use fangraphs. Not a negative. Only reason I do it was because their wasn’t a good source of information available. Hope fangraphs can even get close to my accuracy and I will just use them.
“Thank you but I don’t need your pat on the back or to do the work of posting them.”
So, they are as good as non-existant to me. Gotcha.
“Hope fangraphs can even get close to my accuracy and I will just use them.”
This you?
share.google/2ogC0IbiggcSX7AWM
Not me. I don’t post my stats anywhere. I should have typed that better but I don’t use fip. I created my own formula. No one would know if it was good or bad it would just be a random number. Like a tree falling in the woods does it make a sound if no one is there. Post so people who don’t care won’t view it? Most people use era. Some graduated to 1st grade use fip. If they don’t care about the already superior stats they aren’t going to care about mine. And I don’t want them to. I just did it for myself. I like appearing smarter than I am. Hope people keep using era forever. The win loss batting average people are even better. Keep using it.
Now if I wanted to I could do fip projections. I don’t want to. Fip is useless for someone who uses something better. Fangraphs could be right because there is so much luck involved. Keller is close. Ashcraft Bubba should majority of the time be a 3 something fip if they pitch like they did in 2025 and continue their progression as one would expect. So much luck with fip though it could be any number 2 3 4 5.
Out of curiosity, what does your number represent?
I do care about the superior stats, so I’m curious, even if skeptical, about yours
Have multiple for different things. Favorite is player value. Use every bit of useful data available. Don’t use anything not useful or luck. Goal is determine what player will do going forward. Like fip uses hr and hr are luck. Better to use hit ball data. Pitch data. What’s it look like with millions of innings pitched. Used to have a hybrid that used scouting but they measure so much nowadays eventually there won’t be much or anything not measured.
AIGM
You seem to be confused.
FanGraphs uses multiple projection systems (at least one of which uses batted ball data and pitched ball data to come up with the projections”.
I’m curious, how do you compare your player value projections to Fangraphs’ to determine that yours are more accurate?
Juan- You have proven your arrogance with not one but two posters and maybe even more.
You are a know it all who thinks that your love of statistics precludes any other consideration in projecting future performance.
You prove that common sense is not common.
And before you note character assassination in others be well advised that some may very well think that your pious attitude enters the room before you do.
Have a good day Juan.
ML
“You have proven your arrogance”
Maybe
But you know what else is arrogant?
“I know better than the projections and models”
If you know better, show it. No one ever does. Because they don’t.
I think you have Juan wrong, Mendoza. I’ve enjoyed his postings and questions. Sorry, but in his dealings with Dream, it’s give and take in that regard, no?
I don’t know AIs determination of value, but I do know projections, especially on players who have little or no MLB time can be way off as mentioned. Where he does say in reference to FG projections being odd is a genuine take. If FG is close to correct, people need to be fired.
He has an attitude,pure and simple.
The post above had Skenes at 2.77 era.
Read what AI is saying about the young pitchers.
Read my first post saying what was wrong with the list as far as accuracy is concerned.
I do not doubt that fip or whatever it is takes various parameters into account.Many of them.I presume that they can all be accurately measured,although I would want to be educated on that if I wanted to trust it.
But just because I do not know the intricacies of the calculation of fip does not mean that my observations of the accuracy of that specific list of Pirate pitchers which comes out to much lower than my batting average does not mean that I am wrong.
Don’t let these statistical gurus mesmerize you.
These models are not always correct.That does not mean that they are not useful much of the time.,but,like the statistics that they use,may or may not be useful for prognostification in the future.
Check out the utube video that he compared to AI and tell me that he is not smug.
If those models clearly show something that is clearly off base then there should be a manual override.
A computer just spits out answers by the input and calculation methods to do so.
How can anyone justify a 2.77 era for Skenes when his era for 55 starts is 1.97?
Do you think that 2.77 will be his era for 2026?
You mentioned a fairly good accuracy for 2025.How did it compare annually over the last 10 years?
My comments were on the Pirates specifically.That may be the only list out of 30 teams for all I know that is clearly not justified.It is the main one other than perhaps the Phillies that I would be knowledgeable about.
I have answered your question now you have a few to answer.
If you know better show it.
But no one does.
Mendoza, my friend, you are writing to someone who has a real disdain for the analytics as an end all crowd. It’s one of the reasons I have little use for bright eyes and muted his moronic takes. It’s why I feel my eyes getting very heavy when Dream starts with the numbers shtick.
Give me basic numbers and then do what Jim Bouton once said. “Tell your statistics to shut up”
I get your points.
Have they signed Suarez yet?
You have never questioned Juan that is why.
These type of guys do not like people disagreeing with them.
They hide behind someone else’s work in creating a model and think that it is perfection.
These models are useful but only to varying degrees.
Read my justifications on the Pirates list and see if you agree with me.
Do you think that Skenes will have a 2.77 era next year?
The model does so he will have to have it.
You have good common sense which is not always common.
And yes Juan is smug.No question there.I think that he knows it to his credit.
Look at his utube video referring to AI GM.Give AI credit for developing his own model.
Never back down if you think that you are correct.
I have dealt with models most of my working life but unfortunately they were not the human kind.
They were flow models in closed conduits and open channel flows and they were both very good and accurate.
Newtons Laws are alive and well and very very consistent.
And the baseball models seem to be quite often good but some of these guys think that they are near perfect.
The first one that I noticed was 1 WAR is equal to $8M and that was like six years ago.
The problem with any tool is that you have to know how to use it and how accurate it generally is.
Those who swear by the accuracy of their predictions and live by them are not being realistic.
Suarez to my mind is the testament for Nutting.
He is worth 2 years at $18-20M per year.Cherington has to sweet talk him and his agent to sign with the Pirates as they have run out of options.
And I did want to add an addendum to a previous post.
Your ego does not walk through the door before you do.You listen and sometimes go with the better opinion or answer.You stand your ground when you think that you are right.You are the type of poster who augments conversations rather than stops them.
Not everyone is like that young man.
Much appreciated and unexpected, my friend. I enjoy MLBTR, of course, but especially the discussions that involve you, TheMan3 and Dream, of course. There are others whose posts I look forward to, like Joe, Goku and hole, to name some just from this thread. I may not agree with everything others say but then again, I don’t have all the answers and appreciate the insights
You’re right. I haven’t had enough interaction with some to know any better. Generally speaking, the analytics types leave me bored. As you know, having a background as an old player then coach/manager and finally pitching coach always had me relying on my eyes and sixth sense more than numbers on a computer
I’m not discounting analytics—they certainly have a place and provide ancillary info—but I just don’t think they’re the bottom line that modern fans believe them to be.
Agree with your thoughts about those who swear my the accuracy of predictions. And yes, I certainly agree with you about Suarez (although I’d rather have Bohm and Castellanos)
Solid reply. Many thanks
ML
“Those who swear by the accuracy of their predictions and live by them”
Who is swearing and living by them?
What are you talking about?
I say it repeatedly. If you think you can do better, show it.
If AI has a better model, show it.
But, no, I’m not going to just believe without any evidence that some rando on the internet can outdo the projections
The people claiming that are the ones with the ego and attitude.
“The problem with any tool is that you have to know how to use it and how accurate it generally is.”
Right.
So if you can beat the projections, show it
“Never back down if you think that you are correct.”
I think I’m correct and I’m not backing down. The projections are what they are. If you think you can beat them, show it.
WUOT
“but I just don’t think they’re the bottom line that modern fans believe them to be”
So, we are the same
I don’t think your eyes are the end all.
I’ve never read one post be you that makes me think your eyes know more than anyone else here
So, if our eyes are equal, and I know the analytics, whose opinion am I going to trust?
Not yours
Juan,you did not answer my questions.
Were they too simple for you?
I knew that you would not.I ran into this a couple of months ago when I put another poster on the spot and he also refused to answer my questions after I had answered his.
You guys just do not get it.You won’t commit to answering simple questions but want to give someone mumbo jumbo after they clearly answer yours albeit in a manner that you do not like.
I have been on this site for over 9 1/2 years and have seen many Juan Uribes so don’t think that you are unique Juan.
But since you have run out of any sort of sensible or intelligent retort I bid you adieu as you have become quite boring with your inane responses.
Gee Juan, you’re a bit defensive.
I didn’t say analytics have no place in the game.
I just said they aren’t an end all
And I don’t think I’ve ever intimated my eyes are all knowing or know better than anyone else but rather, my point is that people who have been around the game for a lifetime rely on much more than numbers on a page
I don’t think I know more than anyone else here and it’s regrettable that you’ve read a few posts and have gleaned that idea. Message board. Opinions. That’s all
And really, I don’t care if you trust anything I have say or not. I’m just a fan. Nothing more.
I do wish to thank you for validating what Mendoza has written though. Sheesh
ML
What question?
I looked back through this thread and I do not see any question from you.
I have some people muted, so if it was in reply to them I wouldn’t have seen it
Reply to this message and I’ll be happy to address your questions
Also, your confrontational tone is noted
I don’t use fip so don’t project it. Fangraphs fip projections may be the best in the world. Completely useless for me from what I seen. But if they ever start nailing them I will do less work and just reference them when I want to know some minor things.
Juan is ok. Then again I don’t like or dislike anyone. And I didn’t watch his video.
I probably didn’t do the greatest job of explaining things.
“I’m curious, how do you compare your player value projections to Fangraphs’ to determine that yours are more accurate?”
I don’t compare my projections to Fangraphs. Nothing to compare. Formulas aren’t the same or even close. Impossible to compare. I don’t project fip war ip. I’m just more accurate because I use data I believe is useful and exclude useless. More accurate because I tells me what I want to know.
Yes I mentioned fip. I don’t use fip. I don’t project fip. So I can’t compare my fip projections to fangraphs. However my projections which use no fangraphs formula otherwise I would just use fangraphs, have Bubba Ashcraft having and pretty dang good season. So if their fip is that high they were either really unlucky or I and many many others really did a piss poor job with evaluating talent.
Unlucky with hrs the fip can absolutely be that high. I just don’t why they are projecting it to be high. But not so interested that I am going to start projecting fip. Will take mental note and try to remember. If they are right I will have to start paying attention to them. I haven’t used them since I was a kid. Maybe they are doing fantastic nowadays.
The 2.77 wasn’t era
Hey now. I try to use basic stats most the time. If someone wants to talk more advanced then I will. But I know my crowd. 90 some percent are era avg people. I just gave Mendoza Keller data all in era. 1 because I know he is a era guy with starting pitchers at least. 2 it’s faster easier to use era.
I have dealt with models most of my working life as well. Thai ladyboy models
Cutch 0.1 war. Canario 0.5 Why pay Cutch 5 million when Canario is 5x more valuable and cost 700 grand and change. Japan I can’t go to Japan
I think fwar is better. I think both are pretty useless. No idea where the 8m came from. Some team foolishly said that? That how the math adds up? Probably that one. So does that apply for every player? I never looked but highly doubt it. In fact I know it’s not unless it’s by accident. Some teams might use war $ value. Maybe maybe not I dunno. But I know for a fact some teams don’t. They say it by their obvious actions. Heck some gms owners flat out say it on record.
Yes I know why Canario is 5x more valuable than Cutch. Just don’t agree with the reasoning.
“If AI has a better model, show it.”
I show it all the time. These guys laughed so hard their sides hurt the week I was pounding the table to claim 5 or 6 era tim hill off waivers. My so called man love for Mike Tauchman is a running gag that won’t end. He’s getting up there in age so I haven’t been pounding the table for him this year but that don’t stop them. Won’t complain if they get him but father time is coming so.
The only reason to post my formula is to satisfy you. Terrible reason. I enjoy playing the role of the arrogant smartest guy in the room. This hobby would be finished for me everyone was my equal. Now most people wouldn’t take the time to learn but if just you do it would be finished. Imagine if teams picked up on it. With payroll disparity what it is small mid markets wouldn’t be able to compete. If everyone was equal then $ would be the only advantage. You want to finish the job of completely destroying baseball just to satisfy your lil curiosity. Shame on you
AI
“I don’t compare my projections to Fangraphs”
“Hope fangraphs can even get close to my accuracy and I will just use them.”
Can you say that yours are more accurate, if you don’t compare them?
“I’m just more accurate because I use data I believe is useful and exclude useless”
The key word here is “believe”.
Do you test your accuracy? If so, how? If not. You don’t how accurate, or inaccurate, they are.
AI
“You want to finish the job of completely destroying baseball just to satisfy your lil curiosity.”
Nah
I just want to show everyone that you’re full of it
But, how about this, give me ten players that your model differs greatly on than, say, ZiPS. If you nail them, that’ll give you the slightest bit of credibility.
I predict you won’t.
Going to try this one more time Juan.
“I don’t compare my projections to Fangraphs”
“Hope fangraphs can even get close to my accuracy and I will just use them.”
Can you say that yours are more accurate, if you don’t compare them?
I am not using any formula that fangraphs uses. Ever hear the saying apples to oranges? End of conversation. There’s nothing to compare.
I will use them is unrelated to being comparable. I started doing my own because there’s wasn’t good enough for me. If they can do similar to me well there’s no need for me to do my own as that was the only reason I did my own.
Do you test your accuracy? If so, how? If not. You don’t how accurate, or inaccurate, they are.
I was so into analytics that I started doing my own and that was it. I just assumed they were better. I never thought to test. Crap. I gotta go sorry but got testing to do.
“But, how about this, give me ten players that your model differs greatly on than, say, ZiPS. If you nail them, that’ll give you the slightest bit of credibility.”
Juan as enticing as having credibility even the slightest bit from you sounds I have to pass. I may regret this. But going to project that I don’t.
“I predict you won’t.”
Dang. I thought I was the only one that could out predict fangraphs. Well done Juan. Welcome to the club. Before you question me about this club and if it’s tested etc I gotta tell you there is no actual club. It’s just a saying. I can’t compare it to other clubs because well like I sad it doesn’t exist.
Juan you are A+ fantastic. My new favorite mlbtr comment section member.
I have no idea what either of you are arguing about and truthfully don’t care. I have a problem with character assassinations on a message board. It’s opinion and nothing more. You can conduct yourself like an adult or devolve into personal attacks and epithets or just bounce ideas off of each other as adults would. Puffing your chest out over meaningless opinions and claiming someone thinks he’s a know-it-all because he has a differing opinion? I might as well head to the local middle school playground, bowling alley or twitter
Histrionics again AI.
I doubt others even knew who Tim Hill was and even I could care less about him.Was that your one win?
Winker is an on and off player and you were on his side.How did that turn out?Grichuk,not too dissimilar although I thought that he would be a good addition too.
Tauchman is a decent hitter but no power.Is he going to suddenly develop it at his age?
Why would they even need him when they have Mangum and Password in AAA?
I’m not arguing about anything
“Tauchman is a decent hitter but no power.Is he going to suddenly develop it at his age?
Why would they even need him when they have Mangum and Password in AAA?”
Yeah they don’t need him. A bench of Yorke Suwinski Password Cook whoever will be just fine. No need for decent mlb veterans when you got quad a trash already laying around.
You all heard about Cutch on Twitter and want to be feisty too. Awesome. This is fun.
Not sure what Tauchman wants but he made less than $2M last year.He would take Jack’s place as the fifth outfielder.
Yorke is an infielderPassword will be in AAA,and Cook has no chance.
They are not quad trash.
Tauchman is better,but how much does he want and would he come to Pittsburgh?
Do they have someone else in mind like Castellanos?
At this point we really do not know.
Like you,we call it like we see it.
It is not personal.
Whether you realize it or not though you are not always right.
ML
What are you talking about?
What did I say that could be right or wrong?
It’s AI’s claim that’s in question here. Not mine
Only you and washed have Castellanos in mind.
I believe like 97 98 99 percent of free agents go wherever they can make the most $. And not like he made 100s of millions. He went to Korea is 35 and was still arbitration for this season. I would recommend taking the $ because this could be your last chance.
Giolito might be a fit here too
Hes gonna want at least 10-15 mil
I think theyre leaning towards 5 mil max
I think the should go spend and get framber … they can afford the clubhouse hit as the expectations are low anyways and then perhaps trade some depth to get a bat to help. I’m not remotely a pirates fan but I’m ready for the pirates to be relevant again. I mean you have what might be one of the best pitchers of the generation currently healthy on your staff. Do something
On one hand, they don’t need another pitcher. They traded away Burrows and Oviedo and basically have committed themselves to the idea of the kids carrying the weight this season
And with their limited budget, their focus has to be on a bigger bat rather than a big ticket pitcher
Given what they’ve done this off season, I’m doubtful that expectations are as low as they have been
I don’t think the Pirates need to spend big on a starter, they spend big on a bat like Suarez. Are you saying that because you don’t want to forfeit your PPI? LOL
Once Jones returns, and assuming Ashcraft sticks around, the Pirates starting rotation will comprise five players all drafted by the Pirates. That’s pretty rare nowadays.
You can put that one down to Chris Archer!
Astros-What is PPI?
Poops per ingestion.
He/she is talking about eating hot dogs.
Thank you Arky.
Not sure how it applies in his post but OK.
Why not reply to Astros instead of posting a new comment if you have a ? for Astros? You just smashing the keyboard hoping he is telepathic and shows up?
AI- If you are replying to me I thought that I had replied to him.
I do not know how many indentations they use on this site.
Sometimes there may be answers other than the ones that you presume.
I was hoping Pirates would fortify a strength by signing Ranger Suarez, but since that didn’t happen, I’m resigned to accepting they will sign a LHSP on the downslope of their career on a cheap 1-year deal. Matters not to me which one it is. Corbin = Quintana = Anderson =…
No need. Sign a RH hitter with a similar career profile who can play acceptable 3rd base.
@arky
I said Ranger Suarez, LHSP, not 3B Eugenio Suarez. Although we definitely need a starting 3B, too.
Lol…. I’ve seen so many posts about Eugenio that my mind went into autopilot.
I’m not on board with signing pitching though. Get as many bats as they can with the remaining budget and ride the young pitching
Have to think they having limited funding available now. The priority has to be another bat. As stated above, if they really feel the need for another starting pitcher—I sure don’t—then bring Falter back. Why not? The guy did pretty well here and was traded for peanuts
Yep… let PNC Park do the work with Faulter.
Arky and Washed- Give them the two back that they gave the Pirates for Falter.
It would seem he would fortify a strength but the real strength is how they got the strength. (You guys like that, lil deep there eh) The strength is having good young cheap talent and sustaining it. Signing Suarez would cost them a 2nd round picks I believe. So we are talking a potential Jones Mlod Harrington Barco here. Or better. 2026 strong deep draft.
Could have signed someone else though. But someone after Oviedo Burrows was traded because they were full until then. Could have traded for someone but the pirates didn’t have anyone to trade. Pirates have actually good prospects you want to keep not that fake top 100 or overrated garbage that was dealt. Still plenty of options available. Verlander Max Quintana Anderson Corbin Gio Walker Martinez Bassit. Not Ranger quality tier but it’s something that can get job done. $ was very much desperately needed for bats. Schwarber would have sold a ton of tickets. Why they were willing to spend on him because they would get a large chunk back.
It would be interesting if they got Max or Verlander for less than $10M
I would think that Boras cannot get any more based on their age and injury history.
Scott-Do you really think that they had the money to sign Suarez?
@Mendoza
I was thinking Ranger would sign for about the same figure as what they reportedly offered Schwarber. Ends up he got $30 million more. So I guess the answer is no.
With all due respect I think that they were going with what they needed which is hitting.
I live near Philadelphia and the Phillies pretty much knew that they were not going to resign Suarez.Someone was going to pay him lots of money.What they did not bargain for was the injuries to Nola and Wheeler.
I think that we can both agree though that it would be nice to get an inexpensive left hander to fill out the Pirates rotation.I do think that your guy Barco is almost ready but I would hate to lose a year of him by bringing him up too soon as I do think that he is going to be a fine pitcher.
They just need someone for like 3 months until Jones gets back
Spending big on another SP makes absolutely no sense
Lowe & O’Hearn were smart pickups, now they just need another RH bat and some depth players
@Goku
I definitely could make a compelling argument that signing Ranger Suarez would enhance their playoff chances more than signing a bat like Eugenio Suarez.
This was the logic that went into trading 3 young guys for Archer. I’m at a loss here, Scott You’re weighing a starting pitcher who can win a few games against an everyday player who can influence numerous
Let’s say Ranger wins 12 or 13 games but Geno hits 40 bombs and knocks in 85 runs
You’re going to tell me Ranger was more instrumental in a playoff run?
Considering Ranger costs as much as Lowe & O’Hearn combined , i don’t think that strategy would work with their budget
A lot of people already think their rotation is top 10 in MLB, and while a lot needs to go right for that to stick, anyone who watched them last year knows they needed run support more than anything