TODAY: In a new report from Brendan Kuty, he writes that the Yankees are willing to include opt-outs after the second and third seasons of their five-year offer.
JANUARY 12: The Yankees reportedly have a five-year offer at more than $30MM annually on the table to Cody Bellinger. ESPN’s Buster Olney nevertheless wrote over the weekend that New York was preparing for the possibility that the outfielder could head elsewhere, potentially on a six-plus year contract.
Brendan Kuty of The Athletic added a few specifics on the Yankees’ position in a report this evening. Kuty writes that the five-year proposal came with a “true” $31-32MM average annual value, as it did not include any deferred money. He adds that the Yankees are willing to discuss opt-out possibilities as well, though it’s not known if their most recent offer actually included such a clause. Jon Heyman of The New York Post similarly suggested that some kind of opt-out was a possibility.
Contract length appears to be the significant stumbling block. Bellinger’s camp at the Boras Corporation is reportedly looking for a seven-year guarantee. Olney suggested over the weekend that he also wanted more than the Yankees were offering on an annual basis, yet the extra year or two seems the bigger hurdle. Bellinger is entering his age-30 season (though he turns 31 in July, less than two weeks after the unofficial July 1 cutoff for a player’s seasonal age).
As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker for Front Office subscribers, Brandon Nimmo signed the most recent six-plus year free agent deal for a hitter in his 30s. That eight-year pact was one of four such contracts over the 2022-23 offseason, but there hasn’t been one within the last two offseasons. Alex Bregman rejected a six-year offer from Detroit last winter in advance of his age-31 campaign. Bregman went on to agree to a five-year deal last week that’ll run through age-36, the same age at which a seven-year deal for Bellinger would conclude. Kyle Schwarber signed a five-year contract covering ages 33-37 last month.
Bellinger went short term with opt-outs during his last free agent trip. He signed a three-year, $80MM guarantee with outs after each of the first two seasons. After foregoing the first opportunity, he returned to the market on the heels of a .272/.334/.480 season in the Bronx. He’s unattached to a qualifying offer this time around and already seems assured of a much more lucrative guarantee than he commanded on his previous free agent deal.
He needs the yankees more than they need him. They are giving opt outs over years so he’s not the next Ellsbury.
Problem with that logic is if he declines he won’t opt out and he would be another Ellsbury
That’s why opt outs need to work both ways, especially for small market teams which would be bogged down by a big contract to a declining plàyer.
If you want an opt out, the team deserves the same luxury.
That would end opt outs really quick if it cut both ways.
“Oh my god these player options are hurting teams”
Then offer team options instead. It’s literally that simple. No one is forcing teams to sign Cody the pothead
This one: That’s called a non-guaranteed contract and the union wouldn’t let it fly, rightly. Also, opt outs are supposed to be an incentive. What’s the point of offering an incentive that’s the exact opposite of an incentive?
@DRS
Most teams are cool with opt outs for a reason. If I sign a free agent to a 7 year deal at age 29 and they want an opt out at age 33 it usually means they’ve performed or outperformed their current contract and gel they can get more. In that case the team might feel like they got what they want from the deal and don’t want to risk paying them beyond 33+ and would go lastly let them walk. What’s the alternative? If they get injured or tegress during the life of the contract then you’re stuck with them anyway. If Soto decided to opt out in the next couple of years (I think age 30) I would be more than happy to let him walk and avoid the risk of the down years. Take the first 5 years of what you hope is elite performance and keep it moving.
TobttR
“That’s why opt outs need to work both ways”
They do work both ways
This article shows exactly how
Opt-outs have value to the player. That’s why the Yankees are offering them instead of additional money (in the form of 2 more years).
From the Yankees perspective to sign Bellinger it’s either going to cost something like $210 million ($30 million over 7 years) or $150 million ($30 million over 5 years) with opt outs.
That’s the value to the team. In this instance about $45 million (the PV of $60 million 5 years from now).
cwsO
“That would end opt outs really quick”
Also salaries would increase.
Also team options are ALREADY a thing
Also, why do so many people who are, presumably, baseball fans seem to hate baseball players so much.
MAM
“What’s the point of offering an incentive that’s the exact opposite of an incentive?”
These people seem to hate baseball players. I don’t get it. They’re almost giddy over the idea of a team being able to cancel a player’s contract. It’s very weird
KFCF
This
Plus. Teams offer the opt-out in lieu of more money
They’re called mutual options and are rarely exercised.
Teams could, but then no one would ever sign with them unless they’re horrible already.
Anyone else think Juan is a just trolling
On
Because I understand what I’m talking about instead of just posting ignorance like so many?
Sure. That’s trolling
This article is proof of what value opt outs have for teams
They decrease the amount of money they have to give players to sign them
@JazzHands I firmly believe that the folks presenting as baseball fans, but who also clearly hate the players, feel that way out of jealousy. They’d all love to be skilled enough at something that employers would be willing to pay them millions to do it. But they aren’t, obviously, and it makes them feel some type of way about those who are
Jazz: If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the past few years is there’s a lot of people who are just rooting for the billionaires even though the billionaires would never give them a second thought.
@This one- For a long time most options were mutual or team options. This shift to player options has largely been fueled by the teams. Extending so many young players early and buying out free agent years has thinned out availability of talent in free agency. Increasing the scarcity of free agent talent has inflated cost of free agents while also giving the top free agents much more leverage. In short we are seeing inflation in MLB economics.
The teams are getting exactly what they deserve. Even in a microcosm of an economy such as MLB the laws of supply and demand ultimately prevail. History has shown this time and time again so I find it hard to have any sympathy for those attempting to reinvent the wheel only to find out to see why its still undefeated and round.
@Jazz: First, defensive jewel Juan Uribe was great contributor to WS champs in ’05-kudos to any recognition of a quirky ballplayer.
My views skew to big picture win-win deals for players and club rather than getting suckered into tired binary of owners vs players.
Opt outs are for suckers. If I do well after singning a 30mm a yr deal, I opt out to squeeze you for more yrs. I I get hurt and or my bat declines, you are stuck with me. Will there be a breaking point? I doubt it if the Yankees cave.
It always works against teams. Gerrit Cole after a TJ negotiates more yrs? You are paying that player to perform. Some of these deals have constant opt outs. Do you think Boras is that dumb to say opt out after 5 yrs here?
Opt outs favor players. If you dont believe that ask Boras. It is no benefit for teams. Its additional salary leverage for players.
@rob
No opt out, I still suck, your still stuck with me. Teams are better off WITH the opt out because some might want to reduce the risky years and cut bait and be happy with the years they received already.
I wouldn’t dignify Boras by asking him that question. He’s not an agent or a representative. He’s a slimeball .
Absolutely agree…been saying the same for years…if a team pays for performance based either on average or exceptional performance right before free agency, and then anytime during the course of the contract doesn’t receive that performance, the team should be able to “opt out” of the contract…..opt outs should work both ways….
rob
“Its additional salary leverage for players.”
It’s additional salary leverage for TEAMS.
Look at this situation we are discussing.
Instead of upping their offer from 5/$31 to 6/$31 (or whatever), they are offering opt-outs. Opt-outs DECREASE salary for the team.
“I get hurt and or my bat declines, you are stuck with me”
If Bellinger signs for 7/$31 and gets hurt, the team is on the hook for 7/$31. If Bellinger signs for 5/$31 and gets hurt, the team is on the hook for 5/$31
Why do you think that hurts the team?
People need to understand that since the opt-out has value for the player, if the team offers an opt-out the player has to give up something of value. That’s how negotiating works. The thing the players give up to get opt-outs is money – either in dollars or years.
That’s the benefit to the team
@rob
Just to clear Gerrit Cole did initially exercise the opt-out clause in his contract with the New York Yankees in November 2024, but after discussions, both sides agreed to revert to the original terms, meaning he remains with the Yankees on the existing deal with four years and $144 million remaining. The Yankees chose not to add the extra year they could have to void the opt-out, and instead reinstated the original contract, keeping Cole as their ace and NOT add the additional year to the contract. This took place zero BEFORE anyone knew he needed TJ surgery which popped up during ST months later.
So many really do seem to root for the owners.
What you have just described is a “Mutual Option”
another anti-weed prude
@Juan Opt outs potentially hurt players. As stated b others above its essentially a free i.surance policy.
I agree in theory one would think teams are going to want to offer less if opt outs are included due to risk. But I do not know of any examples with #s that we know to be true. I know of numerous cases where teams have saw players opt in like Baez or opt out and hit market again.
I dont we would be seeing this current player option trend if these free agent classes hadn’t been thinned out so bad. But when some of the top few bats available suddenly carry big question marks teams are getting creative or taking shorter risks to avoid being stuck in longer deals.
I dont see the opt outs in any way being to teams benefit. If a player succeeds hes hitting the market again if he fails or gets hurt hes options in and still getting paid. You are using hypothetical #s for Beli, say had he tore his ACL in Sept he’d have without a doubt exercised his option and Yankees would be paying him $27.5M this upcoming season. He didn’t tho so hes off to attempt cashing in again. The risk is without a doubt on the side of the teams.
Tigers
“I dont see the opt outs in any way being to teams benefit. ”
I don’t know what to say. This article, plus understanding how negotiating works, show explicitly how they benefit the team.
By looking at when players opt out or opt in, you’re ignoring the part where it benefits the team – during the negotiations. No, we don’t have explicit details on that. We aren’t in the negotiation room hearing the back-and-forth. But any understanding of how negotiations work, and it’s clear that if one side gets something they have to give up something.
Opt=outs have value to a player.
Thus, to get them, they have to give up something. That something is guaranteed salary.
@Juan You are making an assumption that it is benefiting to the teams during negotiations. I agree with that assumption in theory in what was a typical free agent market. Instead we have thinned out free agent markets and as we saw with Beli’s last contract it was a 1 yr $27.5 with a 27.5 option. So if Yankees had tried that leverage last offseason ot clearly failed.
Tigers
Why do you think it failed?
@Juan Im all for the players. I did not like seeing ERod and Baez get the opt outs like they did. I immediately thought great, if they do well they leave if they fail they become a burden.
I personally feel the owners created this. They have created much weaker free agent classes with all the extensions. I dont fault the teams for the extensions either, I see why they want to lock up young talent when they can.
I am not trying to make one side or the other guilty here. My first response was to someone feeling the teams were owed am equal opt out. Which they have the right to bargain for as most of us know. We are seeing the options go primarily to the players the last few offseasons and we have had much weaker free agent classes. The cause of able talent being scarce was the owners locking up talent early. This is not faulting either side its just reality. So when someone says its not fair the team deserves an equal option, no they dont. Both sides have played their parts in what has led to the current MLB market in MLB economics under their law(the CBA).
If that was their tactic in negotiations last offseason it failed. They got a 1 ur deal and they gave him insurance option he declined.
We will see what he gets this year when he eventually signs. I don’t see the teams having too much leverage tho, which they haven’t these past few offseasons. But like I said they created this scarcity by thinning available talent. Ultimately I guess some teams will get lucky some wont, time will tell.
Tigers
” My first response was to someone feeling the teams were owed am equal opt out. ”
They can get that. They do get that It’s called a team option. We see them all the time.
In the EXACT same way that player options have value to the player, so they ask for them to be included, team options have value to the team, so they ask for them.
And , in the EXACT same way that a player option has value to the team because it lowers the cash amount the team has to pay, a club option will raise the amount that a team as to be.
You have to give something to get something.
Tigers
“If that was their tactic in negotiations last offseason it failed.”
Why do you think it failed?
“They got a 1 ur deal and they gave him insurance option he declined.”
The player has to pay for the insurance. They “pay” by giving up salary in the deal.
A 2 year deal at $25 million a year and a 2 year deal at $25 million a year with an opt out are NOT equal contracts.
If a player opt out is being added, then they are giving up salary to get it.
The negotiation isn’t:
Team: How about 2 years at $25 million a year
Player: How about an optout?
Team: Sure! Makes no difference to us.
It’s more like
Team: How about 2 years at $25 million a year
Player: How about an opt out?
Team: Sure, 2 years $22.5 million a year with a player optout.
@Juan In past few seasons we have not seen team options towards top of the free agent classes. They have been player options and not the typical player options of the pat that came on the end of multi yr deals. They have been one and dones. We have also seen something unprecedented with numerous back to back chances for players to opt out.
Im not here to argue and to an extent I agree with you. Typically it has been that teams would leverage options and lengths of contracts to lower AAV. That has not been what’s taken place the last few seasons. The players have been getting higher AAVs and risky options for the team. The players tho are sacrificing here as well, they are less often getting lengthy multi yr deals with a ton of security. This is risky as they have a very finite window of free agent yrs to earn and each yr they deal the long deal they lose leverage towards one. Aside from Ohtani and Soto not many players are getting lengthy deals. Beli, Bregman, and Alonso are all examples of players gettimg higher AAVs on shorter deals. In the past they would have had lengthy multi yr deals from yr 1, especially Bregman a d Alonso. Beli is hard to say as hes had a unique career arc.
Again tho I’m not taking a side here. The initial comment I was replying to was someone calling these player options unfair to the team. That I absolutely disagree with, the teams had the opportunity to try and negotiate a team option. The teams also created the inflated AAVs by thinning the free agent classes with early extensions. Which is cheaper I guess we might see in hindsight yrs from now.
Using these hypotheticals tho is speculating what might have happened in negotiations. Each time you are using #s lower than those that actually happened. Beli had $27.5M with an option he declined. The Yankees did not lower the AAV much from what was predicted by most. Beli did assume some risk as hes out seeking a deal again and as we see hes losing leverage on a lengthy deal.
What Im curious is the motivation to these short term higher AAV deals. I wonder of part of it is related to what they anticipate could be in a future CBA. The Ohtani and Soto deals kind of contradict that anticipation as those deals would go against. Say it was a an anticipated cap, the Mets and Dodgers would be looking at a longterm handicap in that regard, but we ll see hopefully in a little over a year, if not within 2 years.
What now, after the Dodgers just emptied another one of their bank vaults on the Tucker signing? It’s all gotten so ridiculous! Bellinger is even further entrenched in the driver’s seat after that news: IF it actually crosses the finish line which it most likely will after an urgent care walk-in pending physical. LOL Tucker isn’t worth anywhere close to the millions LA is going to be on the hook for once this implodes due to injury/lack of production or whatever other fallout overcomes the disaster this deal is poised for!
threed
The Dodgers should really hire you instead of the losers they have who just built back-to-back world series champions.
Why are people like this so sure of themselves about things that they cannot possibly know?
There’s that saying about smart people being full of doubt and dumb people being full of confidence.
Or are people just throwing whatever “hot taeks” they can against the wall and knowing eventually they will be right about something and can then tell everyone how smart they were?
@threed Maybe u missed the recent decade where LAD has yr in yr out been piling up revenue. This signing can absolutely implode and the impact will b negligible. They by all means over paid in doing so they shortened the length of the deal. Coming off a Worls Series win revenue is at its peak they are just rolling that revenue back into their product.
Most of us think you are because, as is the case here, you don’t try to refute what they are saying, just call try to insult them.
I think I read that a mutual option has never been exercised.
The Yankees need him but the cost is getting stupid. Everyone knows statistically he’s best at Yankee Stadium. If he signs elsewhere, his stats won’t be as good and either way, the Yankees will be bidding against themselves should he later boot out. Tell Boras negotiations are over and move on if he says no. Boy did giving the QO make things more difficult than it should have been.
The best he has ever been was at Dodger stadium, which amazingly enough plays as good or better for power than Yankee Stadium for LHB.
They’re sorta is. Vesting options. Do conditional optouts and vesting option combined and you nearly got what you are looking at.
Optout option triggered based on team performance, vesting option to help protect from large regression. Reasonably fair all around. Good luck getting that though.
@Daryl Aramis Ramirez had a mutual option exercised
Take away the juiced ball 19 year and his time at Yankee Stadium last year was his best. It’s also years later. His worst years were also at Dodger Stadium and today it’s obvious how the Yankees need him the most and he needs them as well.
I agree, another club who signs him has to see the same thing we see. Bellinger either chases more money or chases a Hall of Fame career.
HOF probably won’t happen no matter what.
I knew it was none or very few. Thanks for the correct info.
LOL…..so far from HOF career it’s ridiculous.
It can sometimes benefit the team. Just because the player played very well up until the point of the opt out is no guarantee that they’re going to continue to play great for the remaining years afterwards. There’s a reason why teams don’t like to sign players to really long-term deals.
I’m guessing the Blue Jays for example, wish Jose berrios’s opt-out came a year or two earlier. They wouldn’t still be stuck with 3 years of overpaying a guy who is now pitching like a back of the rotation starter who they currently don’t even plan to include in their rotation.
In most cases decline is gradual. As for the players that we are discussing who have been getting these opt outs they have primarily been in yrs that barring injury they should still be quite productive. For pitchers most have not been players that have not been back of rotation types.
Yes teams might not be planning on these players being around, but if they suffer a significant injury they are going to be around. That is why the current opt outs in these depleted free agent classes have been a players market for the top gree agents. Teams are using these to shorten deals, but the risk they are taking os potentially a yr of getting little to nothing from an injured player if hurt. If the player does well and healthy they are testing market again, so they to are assuming some risk as they have a very finite earning window.
He might not want to play in New York, can’t blame him really. It’s turned into a real S-hole
His bat plays rather well there and they kind of need each other as its an ideal fit for both. The hang up has been # of years.
This. The silly idea that an opt out could ever benefit a team seems to refuse to ever die.
Why should it only benefit the player? Especially in this screwed up system.
There’s a reason a lot of guys are still sitting and deals are shorter now.
I can’t imagine any player would ever give a team the chance to bail on the back end of a mega deal. You’d be turning it into an NFL-style contract where the team could just ‘cut’ you and be out from under the deal. It would set a terrible precedent for your fellow players, who are all members of the same union. A contract having club options for additional years is one thing, but no agent would ever negotiate a contract with a club opt-out, because that would be the last MLB contract they ever negotiated.
Opt-outs are for enticing a player to sign with you. They’re solely there to benefit the player, just like no-trade clauses. Having opt-outs ‘cut both ways’ would be a non-starter for every player in the league.
This one: Teams don’t have to offer opt outs if they don’t feel they will benefit the team. Nobody forces owners to offer more than they do.
sa
“The silly idea that an opt out could ever benefit a team seems to refuse to ever die.”
Because opt outs absolutely benefit teams
This article shows exactly how
The Yankees want to sign Bellinger.
They do not want to pay him $210 million (7 years at $30 million a year). Instead they offer $150 million (5 years at $30 million) with opt outs.
They get the player they want for less money
How’s that not a benefit to the team?
rct
“no agent would ever negotiate a contract with a club opt-out”
What do you think a team option is?
It’s just an team opt-out.
The team gets to unilaterally decide whether the player stays or goes
Opt outs benefiting a team seems silly to people who’s team spends ‘infinite’ money but it really makes sense for regular teams. The pirates sign Tucker 10/330 but with a second year opt out, If he does well the team gets an expensive player for a couple years but if he sucks the franchise is bogged down for ten… do we really wanna reward players for being bad and just getting money for nothing?
On
I’ve explained this
I’ll explain it again
If the Pirates are going to sign Tucker, they are going to sign him for, using your example, something like 10/$350 or 10/$330 with the opt-out.
The benefit to the team is that they had to pay $20 million less for Tucker
They aren’t offering him either 10/$330 or 10/$330 with an opt out as equivilant contracts.
Offering the opt-out lowers the amount they have to pay for the player.
That’s the value to the team
@Mule, are you a fan of a certain Alabama sci-fi surf rock band? Love the name!
Players and their agents use analysts to argue top dollar in new contracts and any team that pays for top dollar and then doesn’t receive top dollar should have the ability to “opt out” of a contract then they are not receiving what they paid for…..this might in fact bring down some of the ridiculous demands on new contract years/dollars based on actual performance.
@oppo
Imaginary world…. Yanks have a 3b prospect they think will be a stud but he’s in low A and they feel he won’t be ready until 2028. They offer Muneteka Murakami a 5/$150 deal an opt out after year two when he’ll be 28 at the start of the season. Let’s say they are pretty confident about his bat but less confident about his ability to stick at 3b. They now bought themselves a 2 year window to allow their prospect to develop. They bought themselves 2 years to evaluate whether or not Rice can be there full- time 1B. They are now at the end of Stanton’s contract and can either let him walk if he’s washed or they can try to retain him on a short term if he’s been good the last two years. If Murakami’ bat is trash then they’re just stuck and they have to deal with it just as they would for any other FA that failed. But if his bat is great then they have options. If bat is great abs he opt out then you can let him walk or more likely, happily resign him for age 28+. If his glove is trust worthy then they can trade the prospect or move one of the 2 to a different position. If Rice struggles to stay at the mlb level then they can move Murakami to 1B. Or if his bat is great and his glove sucks they can move him to DH. OR the 3b prospect might look to be an elite talent and you let Murakami walk in FA for the younger cheaper player. So yak, in some cases a team can benefit from offering opt outs.
Your first sentence kind of makes my point except in reverse.
I can’t imagine a team giving a player a chance to cut out on a mega deal either.
If you are not committed, I don’t want you on my team. If you were my teammate and planning on opting out and bailing on us already when the year is done, I would definitely think lesser of you.
@This
This is a business bro. It doesn’t mean the guy isn’t loyal but don’t kid yourself the team will trade you of they wanted to and could. You’re mamba my point but whatever. If Soto would take a 5/$300 mil then Yanks would’ve signed him quick fast Nevis they get three years closest to his prime with less risk than a 15 year deal. So why would they get mad if he signed a 15 year deal by opted out after year 5? it would likely man that he’s out produced his deal and thinks he’s good enough to get more money. in that case, you say thanks for the 5 years and take care. You then repurpose that money for someone else.
You’re talking five years, and most opt outs now are after a year or two. Ridiculous. Plus no one will get a 15 year deal anymore. They’ll be lucky to get five.
Exactly. Opt outs are player beneficial. If the player opts out, he put up a season that he and his agent feel that they will earn more money or get a year or two longer than the 3 years that a lot of these opt contracts seem to go for. If he doesn’t opt out he has a base pay that’s he comfortable with if the season goes to hell. Win/win for the player.
Yeah… Opt outs are player beneficial. There’s also mutual options, team options, vesting options, and probably a few other ways that contracts can be modified. The player opt out greatly benefits the player, the team option benefits the team.
@Chris
If I sign a guy at age 28 to a 10 year deal for let’s say $400 mil and he gives me elite performance for the first 5seasons and takes advantage of his opt out at age 33 coming off an MVP season them I would GLADLY let him walk and avoid the risk of regression from age 33 on. It’s up to the GM to have a contingency in case his position needs to be filled, even if not at that same level. It’s like divorcing your once flaming hot wife you married at age 25 who’s not so hot at age 45 and getting a fresh start (kidding.. not really).
Knicks-
The only contract I remember with such a late opt out was A-Rod’s original 252. And he did opt out (during the world series) and the other contract he signed with the Yankees was a total disaster. I get what you’re saying that it would be smart at age 33 to let a guy go. But I don’t think many guys in that situation are going to opt out. I probably wouldn’t be upset if said player opts out. Take Othani for instance. We are 2 seasons in let’s say he has an opt out after year 5. I’d have a hard time thinking he would opt out if his contract was written that way. I love the comments about divorce!!! Too right there man. Fresh starts are great!!
That’s why they would be foolish to go beyond 5 years. Unless, of course, it’s at a lower AAV… I’d give him 6 years for $165m ($27.5 AAV) instead of the current 5 years for $155m ($31 AAV). It’s like one final year at $10 million.
Bingo! Well said as I do believe this will be the case when all said and done.
@rsox that’s why the years are lower.
It’s definitely looking like it’s time to move on from Bellinger. Yankees should zero on Tucker now. My guess is they will sign Austin Hays or Harrison Bader and platoon one of them with Dominguez in left field.
Mets are probably the only threat to top NYY offer….and that’s only if Mets don’t offer higher l-t guarantee to land Tucker relative to Toronto.
Yup Bellinger is waiting for Tucker to sign so the runner ups will give him a serious offer
What a greedy mfer. What could be better for this guy than hitting in a Little League park for 5 years? At $30 mil/yr and with opt outs. Not going to get better than this.
The Yankees seriously need to be open about moving on for Bellinger. Boras wants $37 million AAV for 7 years? Nah easy pass on that. Tucker would be great. Expect Tuck to sign with the Mutts this week, and Bellinger to go somewhere else other than the Yankees.
Can’t teach an old dog new tricks. So unfortunate he chose the representation he did. Gotta live with the choices he’s made though I wish his next opt out would be to axe his boneheaded selfish agent!
99captainJudge99: Bellinger’s LZ will include no less than settling on SIX year contract length. Boras is an idiot to suggest anything beyond the six.
@threed67- when it comes to getting the best deal possible deal Boras is the guy, but that doesn’t make the player automatically happy. Bellinger really needs to comeback to the Yankees, his #’s are perfect for the Stadium. If Belli leaves he will definitely regret it later on.
“Little League Park”….really….have you measured the right field line at Fenway, or the Green Monster distance that guarantees a double off of it….want to hit one to center or left center at Yankee Stadium…..plenty of stadiums exist that are distinct in measurements and smart ball clubs tailor their team to take advantage of those measurements…..like the Yankees but to constantly rant about it being 318 down the line when you have a “Pesky poll” HR at Fenway for example is juvenile…..
If he becomes the next Ellisburry, do you think he will op out?
If Bellinger doesn’t take this 5 year deal, and so far he hasn’t. It’s best to just move on already. Boras wants 7, wondering if 6 years could get it done. That remains to be seen.
I keep saying it, the two sides coming together is whats best for both sides imo. But if he isn’t acccepting your offer at this very late point, he and Scotty boy are literally playing you. As an O’s fan to a division rival, move on at this point.
The problem is I don’t realistically see what option there is to move on to. I don’t see them paying for Bichette or Tucker. So what other option exists to replace Bellinger’s production at the top of the lineup? Sure, they can trade a few of their decent trade chips for a hitter but now you’ve eliminated those chips as bait for a pitcher. I also don’t see them signing one of the big SPs that are left. So, it boils down to Bellinger or a collection of hopes and prayers on young players and reclamation projects.
This is the real take actually. I don’t know if they would pony up the money for Tucker as he would be a far more an expensive option. Bichette I can only kind of see, I think potentially they could land him depending on his personal preferences but thats also a very up in the air type of thing. Personally I think you play hard ball with Bellinger, let Boras shop around, do his thing. If he finds a better offer than 5 years 150+ mil with negotiable opt outs then god bless him he did his job. I doubt he will find something better, but as they say a sucker is born every minute.
Its still the Yanks we’re talking about here though, I don’t doubt for one second that they wont be in the playoff picture come the end of the season next year.
This is the way I see it for the Giants. Why aren’t they in on Tucker/Beli? Seems the prayers and young players are the plan for them.
He’s not getting 7 years from anyone. Yankees better off walking away instead of upping already too high an offer for player who only performs well every other year. Assume they settle at 6 years $31 million per
Bellinger needs the Yankees. Dude is trying to help you Bellinger, work with him. Geez
I think the idea Bellinger is getting six years or more is just the agent’s wet dream they are throwing out there
We have seen this act before when he ended up settling for all he could get.
It’s your world, Cody! It’s your world
Where does he want to play ? I don’t think he wants to be in the Bronx or in Queens. He wants to be somewhere warm but just waiting for a similar offer from such a team. If Rangers or Astros or Atlanta are interested now is their time to deal. Diamondbacks would be even more preferred
Have you ever been in NYC in Summer? Lol.
As long as he can smoke he’s probably chillin
Enough of this ..Let Spencer Jones and Jasson Dominguez battle it out for left field.
Sign Goldy, trade for Luis Robert.
It will cost a pair of prospects. Ben Hess and Brendan Jones could probably land Robert off the White Sox.
1 yr. / 30M on the pair with a 1 yr. / 30M team option to bring both back in ’27.
Extend Grisham 3 yr. / 65M
Grisham is not even worth $15 million yr let alone 3/65. If Yankees extend him he be lucky to get 3-4 yrs at $13-14 million avv
Grisham, a three year extension would be his age 30 to 32 seasons, has a pair of Gold Gloves, hit 34 HR last season, takes a lot of walks, should be a steady .330+ OBP / .750+ OPS —
I’d pay Grisham, he is obviously happy with the Yankees. He jumped on the QO because he wanted to stay not because he couldn’t get a good offer in free agency.
Grisham took the 1/22 cause he will NEVER make that in a single year in his lifetime! Even if he took a 3/45 deal from another team it was a no brainer to accept the 1/22 as he is set for life if he sucks and reverts to his old self. He is gambling against himself plus I see Jones as the CF of the future.
@No
I can’t see anyone giving up tall prospects to take on a $2] mil plus 110 luxury tax contract of a guy who can’t OPS over .700.
Totally agree… plus with a potential work stoppage on the horizon, take the payday now and see how things play out. Yanks were foolish to think he’d even consider turning it down. They would have been wiser to try and offer him a 2 year/$30 million deal in season.
I don’t get the Grisham hate, he had a 3.5 WAR last year. Playing CF is really hard. The QF contract is incredible value and the Yankees are all about value.
He took the QO because he wasn’t going to get $22 mil for any season and he’s not 30 yet so he gets another bite of the apple. And with no QO to suppress earnings on a longer future deal.
Ha Seong Kim got 1/20M from the Braves.
The Yanks would be betting on Robert performing in line with his 2nd half of the ’25 season. He hit .298/.352/.456 after the all-star break, added 11 stolen bases, has a good glove in the OF, its a one year deal at 20M, with a team option at 20M – there is some risk in the Goldy / Robert proposal but I like it from the perspective of avoiding long-term money of Bellinger.
That’s a fair consideration, Grisham going back to FA without a QO may improve his market but he likely would have had a good offer this season.
Ian Happ probably the best comp there is on Grisham. Happ has been more consistent and has won four gold gloves to Grisham’s two. Grisham also benefitted from hitting at Yankee Stadium and from hitting in front of Judge but he posted a career year none-the-less, is a very similar hitter to Happ, is a LHB and still plays good defense despite what his DRS says.
Happ got 3/61M at around the same age. You can discount Grisham because he hasn’t been as consistent and isn’t quite as good with the glove but you can’t find a replacement for him that easily and that makes him a 3/60M dollar player in FA, with or without the QO.
Luis Robert is a payroll bandit.
@No
No team should ever give up any true prospect for that remote possibility and keep in mind that his 1/$20 deal is more like 1/$40+ mil for the Yanks because of the 110% luxury tax they would have to pay this year. he’s not worth the risk.
Summers are great but the cold spring and fall weather in non-dome cities diminishes peak performance and is hard on the body
NY usually isn’t that cold in the spring or the early fall, and it can get very muggy in the summer. The climate has zero to do with why a player might not want to play in NY.
Cody mashes in Yankee stadium. Doesn’t matter the weather, that short porch turns his pop-ups into homers.
He does not want the Astros, and the Astros do not want him. Also, Astros and Rangers temperatures are around 70s because they have a roof. I’m pretty sure it’s same with Chase Field but not Atlanta.
It’s time for the Yankees to grow up and start doing deferrals in large and/or long contracts. They are giving their competitors an advantage in relatively lower luxury tax payments resulting from such contracts.
The vast majority of Hal’s net worth is directly tied to the Yankees. I don’t believe he’s capable of offering heavy deferrals like the Dodgers. There’s also a good chance that deferrals are outlawed or at least heavily restricted in the next CBA
Hal could easily add more investors to the ownership group
@Yellow
The Yankees, as a private company, can only bring in new investors by either selling existing shares or issuing new ones—and issuing new shares would dilute everyone’s ownership, including Hal’s. The Steinbrenner family owns roughly 55% of the team, which means Hal can only sell about 4% (worth approximately $328 million at today’s $8.2 billion valuation) before losing majority control. To put that in perspective, when 1% sold for $24 million back in 2016 at a $3.4 billion valuation, that same 1% stake is now worth roughly $82 million—a 241% increase in just nine years. Why would any rational owner sell shares in an asset that’s consistently outperforming the market and generating substantial annual profits? The Yankees aren’t struggling to find investors; the real question is why existing owners would voluntarily give up pieces of what’s essentially a money-printing machine just to fund deferred contracts. It doesn’t make financial sense.
KFCF
“Why would any rational owner sell shares in an asset that’s consistently outperforming the market and generating substantial annual profits?”
Because they believe they price they are selling it for is worth more than that they are getting in returns. Is one reason.
Man, Yankees starting to look desperate now. Just move on. Guy’s not worth it.
I agree, Old York. Enough already.
Best quote.
I so agree. The Yankees are just bidding against themselves.
@imiss
Clearly they’re not of they aren’t willing to include more money. Offering opt outs can be to their benefit. Imo allowing him to opt out in a year or two would mean he must’ve had a great year and fell he can get more $$$. That is at least 1 more year to see if Grisham’s success in 2025 was a fluke and whether you want him beyond 2026. It provides Dominguez another year to evaluate. It gives Spencer Jones another year to develop at AAA and try to reduce his strikeouts. And it’s another year or two closer to bring done with Stanton’s contract. If Beli is productive enough and wants to leave then let him walk and avoid the risky years after 32 or 33. Essentially you’d be signing him to a short term deal. What team wouldn’t want him for 1/$30 or 2/$60?
Opt-out’s are a nasty little epidemic.
The old hates players
What a surprise
I want to opt out of these negotiations already.
The way it’s going, this back and forth will probably end soon. I think Bellinger and Boras cave in to the Yankees offer.
If there’s an opt out after year 3 or 4, fine, but I don’t want him if they went to opt outs after year 2. Gimme three years of service and then you can skedaddle if you’d like.
@Sal
The 2 years of great service sounds good to me. Avoid the years of inevitable regression.
Maybe, but I’m kinda of the mindset of wanting more of a period of stability too.
@Sal
You’re the GM. You can sign Beli for 3/$99 mil right no re. What would you choose?
Absolutely would.
Salzilla, that scenario holds zero value to a player entering his age 31 season. The value to the player is getting another shot at FA. Having that shot at 34-35 is useless to the player.
I think they have reached the end stages of negotiations. Likely the only issue is the Yankees made their offer public to force their hand. It’s not collusion of everyone knows the terms.
Boras will need something small over the public offer, just to save face. That might be why they’re offering the opt out he won’t use. If that’s the case, expect him to sign soon.
Six years is too much, let alone 7. And opt-outs–Maybe one, after his 4th year, and only if it doesn’t mean he gets a big signing bonus and a front-loaded contract. But come on….an early opt-out is just treating the team like a cash machine that always spits out more a=every couple of years. Absurd asks, move on. This is a solid, useful player. Not a superstar.
can we please stop with the opt outs? A 5 year deal with an opt out after the 1st or 2nd year isnt a 5 year deal!! It’s a 1 or 2 year deal
CT
“A 5 year deal with an opt out after the 1st or 2nd year isnt a 5 year deal!! It’s a 1 or 2 year deal”
What if the player doesn’t opt out?
More than five years is a no-go. Questionable health and performance declining. Bellinger needs NYY more than NYY needs Bellinger. Cashman keeps bidding against himself, a terrible weakness. Opt-outs give the player power and take it from the team. Exactly the problem when the Cubs were dumb enough to give him multiple opt-outs. Zero leverage to trade him each year. Lucky for the Cubs, Bellinger opted out.
@baseball
He’s clearly not bidding against himself if he hasn’t increased the offer. Question. If Beli and Boras would take a 2/$60 or $70 mil deal, would you jump at it? If yes then give him the opt out. What’s the other scenario, a guaranteed 5 year deal what’re your married to each other for better or worse? The opt out gives both sides a “win-win” scenario. It only activates if the players had a great year and feels like he can get more on the open market or, in some cases, simply doesn’t want to be in that team anymore for whatever reason and in that case it’s best to let him walk anyway.
Knicks, the Yankees have reportedly made multiple offers including both a short term, high AAV deal that Bellinger said no to and a 5-year deal at over $30 million AAV that he obviously didn’t accept either. Now they are apparently saying they are willing to include opt outs, something that has no value for Bellinger.
Just a few points:
– Bellinger’s performance increased, not declined.
– Bellinger played 152 games, so that increased as well.
– The Yankees need Bellinger or they would not be bidding on him. That is a given. Teams don’t try to sign players they don’t need.
– We know that Bellinger has other offers. The Yankees have made multiple offers.
– Opt outs give value to a team in that they use them to lower the AAV. That means gives them some power in the situation.
– Bellinger had an NTC, so leverage to trade him was a moot point.
– WAIT! If opt outs are bad, how is it good that Bellinger opted out? You can’t have your cake and eat it too.
You are batting a solid .000. hahaha
Maybe try bunting instead of swinging for the fences and missing everything.
He’s perfect for that park’s dimensions. Confident He will be back despite the PR gamesmanship
Stearns, jump in here and sign him to the Mets
I wouldn’t sign Bellinger. He thinks that he is way more then hes worth. Let him get an overpaid diva contract with the Tigers. His true value is 5 years 100 million. The Yankees shouldnt get desperate
Prior to the offseason I thought that the Mets had to have either Tucker or Bellinger. I still think that is the case. Since Tucker has signed with the Dodgers, that leaves Bellinger
Yankees better sign Austin Hays now. If they wait any longer for Bellinger to make up his mind, he won’t be available and then they will truly have to play Dominguez every day in left. I don’t see any chance of them signing Tucker, so Belli and Hayes are their two best options remaining (barring a trade).
He’s only had one hundred run scored and rbi season (the same year). Only hit .300 twice and hasn’t been an all star since 2019. He’s not worth all this
1874 called and they want their stats back.
Once again the Yankees are bidding against themselves. I am no fan of opt-outs. It benefits the player if he does good and he’ll never opt-out if does bad. It never helps team, but it hurts them if he does good.
That’s exactly why it is a plus in negotiating. Realistically, if you sign Bellinger to a 5 year, $155 million deal… you’re on the hook for 5 years. If you give an opt-out (or multiple opt-outs) there is a potential bonus for the team too. If he has a monster year and decides to opt out, you got a one year deal for below his market value (1 years, $31m or 2 years at $62m). Not bad.
You can then choose to re-sign him again or move on. If he doesn’t opt out, you are still only on the hook for the original deal.
The players union is going to use OptOuts as leverage against a cap. Opt-outs will be gone and the game will continue to suffer more parody loss as the haves continue to dominate.
Last 5 years of production:
Judge: 1,075 OPS and 41.7 WAR
Vlad Jr. 0.879 OPS and 23.1 WAR
Bellinger 0.746 OPS and 11.7 WAR
Bellinger is asking for 92% of Judge’s salary while offering only 28% of production. Not worth it.
Those numbers are really skewed, it would be more accurate to use his last 3 years. His last two years in LA amount to negative WAR. He’s obviously shown he’s past that, with 3 consecutive productive seasons.
Judge – 26.1 WAR
Vlad Jr. – 12.6 WAR
Belli – 12.1 WAR
He’s still nowhere near Judge, but he compares well with Vladdy who just got a monster deal less than a year ago.
@melfman1
Even using the last 3 years, the issue isn’t WAR totals, it’s WAR per dollar and risk.
Bellinger is a ~4 WAR/year player asking for 8–9 WAR money. His value is defense- and position-dependent, which historically erodes fast in the 30s. At $37M AAV, you’re supposed to be buying offensive dominance, and an .816 OPS simply isn’t that.
Using the same 3-year window you’re asking for:
Average WAR per season (2023–25)
Judge: 8.7 WAR/year
Vladdy: 3.5 WAR/year
Bellinger: 3.8 WAR/year
At $37M AAV, Bellinger would be paid like an 8–9 WAR player while producing ~4 WAR.
Bellinger’s WAR is fragile in a way Judge’s or even Vladdy’s is not. His value is defense + versatility dependent If he slides from CF to 1B as he ages, 2–3 WAR disappears quickly Judge’s WAR is bat-driven; Vladdy’s contract was bat-first with age protection. You’re paying prime dollars for skills that historically age poorly.
I never said the Yanks should offer $37m AAV, I was simply pointing out that Vlad just signed for 14 years/$500m. Over the last 3 years, he and Bellinger have very similar production.
Vlad – 12.6 WAR, 79 hr/281 rbi/.293 avg
Belli – 12.0 WAR, 73 hr/273 rbi/.281 avg
I don’t think it’s that unreasonable to be looking for $30 plus over 5 in today’s climate. That’s less than a third of the Vladdy contract.
Vlad contract is massive but the AAV is reasonable. It’s so long when he’s in his mid-30s he’ll only need to produce 2+ WAR to deliver payoff.
Bellinger’s average bWAR 2023-2025 is 4.0.
4.0 bWAR is just over $40 million in the free agent market.
If you are using fWAR his 3.8 WAR average is worth $37.7 million. fWAR uses imaginary numbers to calculate the finished product, so it is just as imaginary.
Bellinger is rumored to be asking for a similar AAV.
Split the difference in length at 6 years
6 yrs x $35 million = $210 million.
That takes him through his age 36 season.
Vlad’s deal takes him through his age 40 season. That is going to be ugly the last 5 seasons. The Blue Jays knew that when they signed it and so did Vlad. That is why the AAV is $35 million and not closer to $40 million.
At $37 million, Bellinger would be paid like a 3.7 WAR player. As you said, he is a 4.0 WAR player, so it would be a good deal for both.
The last 2 years in LA Bellinger was coming off a shoulder surgery that always takes at least 2 seasons to recover from.
Prior to that there was Covid and before that he had an 8.7 WAR, MVP season, but that didn’t fit York’s narrative so he left that out.
Melf, Bellinger had a shoulder injury at the end of the 2020 season in LA that, when surgery is necessary, takes 2 years to fully recover from.
From 2023 to 2025 he averaged 137 games played and 4.0 WAR. Vlad Jr has averaged 157 games played and 4.2 WAR. They are essentially the same value, Vlad just played more games.
Judge is in a different league than both of them. He averaged 8.4 WAR and 138 games played. The only reason his AAV was as low as it was, was his age when he signed it. He did get one of the longest, if not the longest, contract signed by a 31-year-old player.
Age will also hamper Bellinger’s earnings. His age is part of the reason that opt outs hold no value to him. Teams will not be able to lower the AAV by offering opt outs in this case.
WAR as usual doesn’t tell the whole story. With Belli you’re also paying for his defensive versatility and overall good glove. A good CF who can hit isn’t easy to find, plus he can play all over the OF and 1B. Still, I don’t see why Bellinger hasn’t signed yet. He’s shown some inconsistency with his bat in his career. Maybe his agents sense the Mets will swoop in with a slightly better offer. We’ll see.
@niched
WAR includes the defense and as I mentioned, his WAR value most likely will decline once he needs to move away from CF. I just don’t see the long-term value.
True but Bellinger’s overall fWAR was second highest on the Yankees last season among qualified players, partly I think because his defense is much more highly ranked than Grisham, Rice or Goldschmidt. His offense was second highest too according Fangraphs, just above Chisholm, Rice and Grisham. My overall point is there are different ways of looking at player performance.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qua…
He played 3x the innings in LF & RF than he did in CF in ‘25 – in NY he’s made that move.
And comparing contracts with Judge is more about Judge simply being a huge bargain at this point.
That’s what I was thinking too. Pretty much any player is going to look bad if you try to compare him to Judge. He’s a total outlier who signed for much less than he could have gotten.
Niched, WAR is the stat that does tell the whole story. That is the entire purpose of WAR.
There are three versions of WAR, all using different methodologies to calculate: bWAR, fWAR and WARP. But one of the Bellinger’s greatest assets is his versatility, which WAR has no way of valuing. WAR will always be controversial and like every other stat, does not tell the whole story.
Pass on Cody. You’ve made a fair offer. Move on.
This is just ridiculous. Cashman is bidding against himself. They need to move on from Bellinger. I like the player. He had a great year. He’s not worth anywhere close to this. Honestly at this point, I prefer Bichette. If you don’t want one of the young guys in the outfield, make a play for Donovan or something afterwards.
no, he’s bidding against the Mets
Not worth it
Just let him go,
I wll give Jasson to play LF, Spencer to play CF/LF from the bench.
Honestly, if he doesn’t accept what their latest offer is, I agree…move on. I’d rather they spend the money on a younger, RH contact hitter like Bichette. Put him at 2b this season and move Chisholm to LF. Jazz has played 192 games in CF during his career, so it’s not a stretch. (he played 3b when they acquired him with NO experience there) So really, can he be any worse than Dominguez out there in left??
Bichette is looking for 300M contract, Why not just give Jazz a extension contract. Maybe bring Bader back for outfield glove
Yeah, that’s crazy money for Bichette. But if he’s getting resistance from ALL teams on that request, then perhaps he’ll accept a shorter deal on a “prove it” (can you stay healthy) contract? He’s still young enough to lock down a long term contract next year. (a la Bregman’s deal with Bosox)
If not, then avoid him at all costs too. Cashman has been linked to LF Austin Hays as a fallback plan in case Bellinger can’t be bought. I’d be fine with him out there in a platoon with Dominguez.
They’ve got enough big bats in the order between Judge, Stanton, Chisholm and potentially Rice. Not sure if Grisham’s ’25 season was just an outlier and he won’t be able to duplicate it. But if he’s “found the magic” in his swing, then they can justify the QO deal with him.
Swag, Belling is looking for about $35 million AAV. He has asked for 7 years. That is not $300 million.
The Yankees have offered 5. That was not enough. Now they are offering opt outs, which has no value for a player Bellinger’s age.
The next step is either the Yankees or the Mets or the ever-present mystery team step up with 6 years.
Nimmo is a solid player, but I’m still baffled by that deal.
Pretty straightforward. Nimmo was a 5 fWAR CFer who had figured out that offseason how to stay on the field then did so, curing the only real weakness in his game. Top ten by OBP. On defense a +4 FRV, +6 OAA in 2022, 28.6 fps…
CF was an extremely weak position throughout MLB, and Springer, a little better but a year older, already slipping in CF, and missing time had gotten 6/$150m in the 2020-21 offseason. 8/$162m was very comparable, with a lower LT hit and the payments spread out, with cheaper money in the last two seasons.
They probably saw Nimmo playing 3 years in CF, 2-3 years in a corner, 1-2 years at 1B or DH, eating the last 1-2 years, as usual with a long deal. No one saw the plantar fascitis coming. Without it he’d probably still be a 3-4 fWAR CFer instead of the 2.9 fWAR LFer he was in 2025.
Nimmo was never going to stay in CF and the Mets were delusional in thinking he was a CFer. He should have been playing LF from the start. Nimmo has stayed relatively healthy luckily since the deal, but he average 72 games the 3 years preceding 2022 which is why he jumped at chance to sign an extension vs risking the open market. His walk rate was trending down each year as well so his high OBP profile was not going be sustained deep into that deal. Like I said he’s a solid player, but 8/$162 to me at the time seemed like an overpay for a pretty decent 30 year old left fielder.
Nimmo was a well above average defensive CF in 2022 when he signed the deal. There was every reason to believe he could continue playing at that level for 2-3 years on defense.
If you are trying to use averages and not factoring in COVID shortened 2020 season, then you are not getting a true picture. He played in 55 of 60 possible games that year. That equates to 149 games if it was a full season.
What are you talking about? Nimmo had -12 DRS up until 2022 and now -24 in his career in CF.
He was always a left fielder. He has career +14 DRS in LF.
You’re not gonna get a better deal than that Belli. I heard the devil’s lettuce is phenomenal in New York. Stay in New York Bronx>Queens. My opinion doesn’t even matter I’ve never been to either place.
Good to know.
Strictly business.
Cohen got a little reckless with his money. They also paid Nimmo to be an everyday CF and lead off man, which after 1.5 years into the deal, he no longer was either.
@FrankRoo
Nimmo’s transition from elite .400 OBP to decent HR hitter was a bizarre decision.
The pf was unexpected, but since when *don’t* players over 30 run into problems?
Prediction:
Tucker signs with Blue Jays
Bichette signs with Red Sox
Bellinger signs with Mets
I think you’re on the money with Tucker, but I think Bichette goes to Philly. Mets may sign Bellinger… but if they do, it’ll be a high AAV, shorter term deal (3 years $115-$120m or something like that). I don’t see them going 6 or 7 years for Bellinger after just getting out of the Nimmo deal.
0 for 2 so far. Will it be a K or will you be hitting .333.
For the record, I agree with you about Bellinger.
Love how Scott feeds Boras just enough to get the stories out (and the baseball world talking).
We’ll know if talks are on track or not by whether or not a mystery team appears.
Don’t shoot the messenger, but I’ve often wondered, especially in this political climate, why would a gifted athlete sign with the NY teams and/or California teams when the potential tax grab has to be a factor.
When you’re making generational wealth does a percentage here or there really matter? If I had $10M in the bank I’d just want to play in a city I liked with a chance of winning.
I’m surprised large signing bonuses or roster bonuses aren’t used more often for tax purposes. Make your main residence a low or no tax state and get the bonus every year instead of game checks. Deferring money could work in the same way. Play in California but defer the money until you live in Texas
It’s economics not politics
ohyeah, they are. Look at Soto’s deal. $75 million signing bonus. Other than signing bonuses, money is taxed where it is earned, regardless of when it is paid. Also, in CA and in NY you don’t pay a flat tax. You have a huge number of deductions and credits that bring down your actual tax paid. I am in the highest tax bracket for income earned in California, but only once have paid more than 3%. Then there is actual tax burden which includes things like property taxes and other government fees. You pay a much higher % of the value on property tax in most counties in Texas than in California.
Which then brings up the question, why would you want to live in Texas? It’s the south end of a north bound mule.
…and this response is why I prefaced with “don’t shoot the messenger”. Wonder this “………”
You think the rich pay significant taxes? In the US?
Adorable!
Yankees know they have to sign Bellinger and the continuing media leaks provide evidence of their urgency. They want Bellinger at their number and they want him to take it now so they can move on to address other needs. Bellinger has worked hard and waited a vey long time to become a FA. This will be his one big long term k and if he has to wait until spring training to get every last dollar and that final year that is what he will do.
Wow…do we get any cheese with that wine of yours for Belli….ah…poor Belli…you make it sound as if he has been playing for peanuts when in fact he’s been paid pretty handsomely…..his age and injury pedigree is his issue and an acquiring teams has the right to be concerned….at 31, he’s asking to be employed at very generous money…upwards of $32+ million per year when in all probability the last 2 years of that contract will be an albatross
for the team, and his offensive/defensive production will in no way be close to acceptable.
And if the last few years are any indication waiting will only get him less. Happened to him already. The 7 year demand is mostly about Boras trying to make up for the ‘24 offseason
Move on.
Spoiler: he isn’t worth $30 million for an entire contract.
I wouldn’t want to give this guy a long term deal.
Yeah, I don’t think opt outs are going to work. He is older now and they don’t have the value they would have a couple of years ago. He is looking for one last contract now. Either give him the extra year he wants or someone else will.
Opt out still has value if he has a monster year in 2026. But I do agree that this is really the year that Bellinger wants to get paid. He doesn’t want the risk of underperforming in 2026 and having a 2024 type year. I think he’s done with shorter term contracts. That said I don’t think there are a lot of teams lining up ready to give him a 6-7 year type of contract at more than $30mm AAV. You’d have to be pretty desperate.
He had a 5 WAR season which is only behind his MVP one. He’s been there and done that with the opt-out deal and has taken the risk. Now it’s time to cash in.
Sustainability. If GMs think 2025 is sustainable you’d think there would be a lot more action on him. Very odd home/away splits. He’s a year away from a mediocre 2024. His peripherals (low exit velo, low bat speed, low hard hit %, high chase etc) align more towards 2024 numbers. I agree that he wants to cash in and will want length. Something that most teams will shy away from. Yankees will cave and give him 6 years is my prediction.
Last season was a monster season. That is what a 5.1 WAR season is. There were what, 6 OF that had 5 WAR plus? Judge, Soto, Tatis, PCA, Carroll, and Bellinger Maybe one other I am forgetting.
Bellinger wants one last contract. 7 at 27 is still more than 5 at 30 and what he wants is the years and guarantee. That especially benefits a team like the Yankees that are paying a 110% CBT penalty for every $ they spend.
JRod maybe the one you left out??
Are Yankees bidding against themselves? I don’t know of any team that serious about him as much as the Yankees appear to be.
I wouldn’t count out your team.
No way they’re signing Bellinger. Especially for that length and AAV.
It’s a boras trick
I want Cody to go away
It will take a lot more than that.
You forgot I went to DeWitt Clinton HS in the Bronx in the 1970s
As a Yankees fan I am open to them passing on Bellinger, even if it means something like a Dominguez/Hays platoon in LF.
Geez just sign already
They need to chill with Belinger.. he’s not worth anywhere near the money he wants, and they should have never offered Grisham that QO (not worth over $20 million) Call up Jones, Sign Ozuna (30 HR guy) and Arraez (300 average) to one year deals, and save the $35 million a year.
5.1 WAR is worth approximately $51 million. A 4.0 average WAR over the past 3 seasons is worth $40 million per season. He is worth it.
as a Dodger fan it doesn’t matter what NY and Belli do. but i don’t think any other “interested” team is offering anything close to 5/150. that’s way more than he’s earned imo and he should grab that contract and be grateful to the Yanks and the fact he put bat to ball enough to have those numbers on the table. loved him while he was here those first few years but would be lying if i said i hoped to see him back w the Blue. shake yourself Cody!
The Yankees are bidding against themselves.
We know there are 3 teams bidding. The Yankees would not be offering opt outs on top of 5/175 on their 3rd offer to Bellinger if there were not other teams in the running.
Personally, as a lifelong Yankees Fan, I prefer running Jasson in CF (where he is better then LF), and Spencer Jones in LF, with a $22 million backup in Trent Grisham, alongside Judge.
Bellinger is a good player.
BUT!
With all due respect, he is NOT worth a 35-37 million AAV, whether for 4-5 seasons, or 6-7 seasons.
I think the 25-27 million AAV area is what he is worth.
Yankee Stadium is a god send for him offensively, as his stats last season showed, but I really think that the Yankees would be better off spending what seems to be thier limited remaining resources elsewhere.
Bellinger’s 5.1 WAR last season is worth $51 million or a touch more.
His 4.0 WAR average over the past 3 seasons is worth $40 million per season.
Bellinger is definitely worth $35-37 million.
There are other ballparks that are better for LHB including Fenway and Citizens Bank Park. Yankee Stadium plays neutral at a 100 PF for LHB. Citi Field is not far behind at a 98 PF. Even just on power, Yankee Stadium is not in the top 5 for PF for LHB. It was 8th in 2025 when Bellinger played there.
I doubt that Mets or dodgers offer more than 3 years, I also believe 4 years or more wouldn’t age well, run Yankees gamble your money elsewhere
Good to see Bellinger’s agent negotiating with other clubs on MLBTR.
Boras ‘personal goals are strong factor IMO. 30M per is overpay. IMO.
6 years is to NY detriment especially at that cost.
Bellinger’s 5.1 WAR last season is worth $51 million or a touch more.
His 4.0 WAR average over the past 3 seasons is worth $40 million per season.
Bellinger is definitely worth $35-37 million.
Greed! Although this makes me want to go back to school and have a conversation with my guidance counselor about what I wanted to be growing up…
At this point just blow Tucker away and ask him if he’s down to play left.
The 30/150 is the far end of the range where teams should go. The team will likely be platooning him by year 5 or at best FTDH. Any team who goes over that will be in full regret mode during the latter half of the contract.
So tired of these guys. Just sign the contract and move on. $150M is ridiculous and these guys want more. Crazy…sick…greedy.
You’re right. When you’re the rare person with actual leverage over a billionaire, you should let them keep the money and be thankful for the golden crumbs.
Remind me—how is it that the PLAYER is the “crazy sick greedy” one here, when they’re not the ones planning on shutting down the sport next season?
What is greedy is team owners not wanting to pay the players a fair share of the revenue. Wanting to earn as much money as possible for your efforts is called doing what is right for you and your family.
Or do you offer your boss a discount every time you negotiate a raise?
Raise your hand if you think anyone is topping a 5/150 deal. No one? okay.
Hey, the Baltimore Idiots gave the game’s worst defensive 1Bman, a 31 yo coming off a lucky year, 5/$155m.
The idea that Alonso is more valuable than Bellinger is borne out by no stats anywhere, not to mention he’s half a year older.
“already seems assured of a much more lucrative guarantee than he commanded on his previous free agent deal.”
Which is crazy, because he’s two years older and was less impressive than he was that first time. His stats are so much better at Yankee Stadium, you’d kind of have to be crazy to any bigger than what the Yankees are allegedly offering.
You don’t really pay much attention to the sport, do you?
Bellinger was coming off a two-year stretch where he averaged negative WAR when he signed that 3-year deal with the Cubs. Now he is coming off a three-year stretch where he averaged 4.0 WAR and he had an exceptional 5.1 WAR last season.
Yankee Stadium is not even a top 10 stadium for LHB. It is neutral with a 100 park factor. His best fit would be in Philadelphia or Baltimore. Even Fenway is better. Citi Field is pretty close with a 98 PF.
Why not check in with Texas and see if the Yankees can get Nimmo?
Every GM out there knows Bellinger, and virtually any other left handed hitter that can get the ball in the air, benefits from playing in Yankee stadium. It would be foolish to think he’s gonna replicate, or surpass , those 2025 numbers in any other stadium. Take what the Yankees are offering, figure out how to survive on 150 million dollars, and move on. Please.
Can we not act like most of his homers were wall scrapers? A lot of them would clear a wall that’s 320 ft. I’m not saying all of them would be homers but most of them would be.
@HALfromVA “Pretend you didn’t hit to an .881 OPS in 2023 and let Hal keep some of his money.”
Good luck with that line of bs.
Hal, Yankee Stadium played exactly neutral for LHB overall and was 8th in terms of HR PF.
The yankees are cooked. Sure Belli would provide some offense and versatility but, what about 3b,SS, SP and the bullpen? The Yankees have the same problems as last year and they really can’t fix any of it. Unbalanced roster.
And while the Blue Jays got career years from 2nd base, RF, SP and their Bullpen including their closer who they’re trying to replace, that doesn’t get mentioned….in fact the Yankees due to a budget. line they have drawn in the sand, are facing issues that many ballclubs are facing as far as significantly improving on last years lineup performance which isn’t the end of the earth as you explain….that’s why you still play 162 and not anoint a new champion based on paper and expectations…..
They have enough pieces to get by on the infield Rosario and Caballero can cover2b,ss,3b and Cabrera is coming back. Not that they are 300 hitters or 30 hr but they are serviceable and all are OK defensively. Bellinger would be great for all 3 OF positions as well as back up 1b but someone like Rhys Hoskins could be a backup 1b option. Starters with weathers now on board they have enough depth till cole and rodon come back. And for the bullpen I think you will see a arm brought in as a middle reliever between doval, hill,Cruz and Bednar they should be ok. Jake bird and yerry de los santos should get full time spots so they may have enough to start and add as they go. ORT was also brought in but he to me is more of a guy to shuttle from AAA
I think Bellinger signs by the end of the week, his best offer is on the table! If not, he will have to take the Alonzo deal from last year and bet on himself. The difference is he has had a roller coaster career, and might not ever make the top money again.
For once I’d love to see a team counter with — we will give you the op out provided the team gets an opt out mid way through the contract.
@kcmark Teams routinely have ‘opt outs.’
They’re opt ins that teams don’t have to take, they’re called “team options,” and every team has them.
Please move on. Nobody is offering him 5 years as is. He’s waiting for Tucker to sign so that if Toronto loses out on Tucker they offer him 6 years. Let him go. If I’m the Yanks I pull my offer and tell them it’s 3-4 years max now and go trade for Donovan with Arenado contract attached and go try signing JT Real to platoon at catcher and first base. That’s two right handed bats in lineup right there with Arenado and JT Real. Donovan can play LF and 2nd/3rd.
Last move trade for a starter not named Peralta. He’s not worth the asking price as a one year rental who when he’s not perfect he gets hit hard. No thanks. Look back at Mackenzie Gore or just sign Giolito to eat up innings and hopefully they can get something out of him.
I like your proposal here billy
Bellinger away: OBP, ISO, wRC+
2025: .301/.172/97
2024: .347/.168/117
Do people really think Bellinger just got that much worse in a year?
Or is there some possiblity that it’s just random variation?
Like, if you looked at a players stats on each day of the week, do you think they would hit exactly the same every single day? Or would some days be different? Do you think that means that that player is really good on Tuesdays and really bad on Thursdays, or whatever?
Look at ANY player, almost all of them are going to have fluctuation in their home and road stats from year to year.
It doesn’t really mean anything.
But you’d have to either read a site where the authors
1) understand at least basic statistical analysis
2) help their readers understand baseball better
to ever know that
(Or, not have the memory of a goldfish)
Bellinger will almost certainly be fine next year in the games he plays outside of Yankee Stadium
Well said.
It’s a lot like anyone who cites one year of platoon splits as if they have real statistical significance. They don’t.
Please don’t sign him.it will be ellsbury 2.0 except ellsbury was a lot better
Perfect !!!
These opt outs put the ballclub at a disadvantage as they would have to go through the process again, this gets real old. Why don’t teams have opt outs as well? Why is it always the player that gets to choose while clubs are left hanging. If I where the Yankees I would give him the offer with an opt out on the last year, take it or leave it. The same can be said for the Mets with Juan Soto, believe me in year 5 if Soto decides to opt out unless the Mets add an additional 5mil I would not entertain giving him the 5mil as Soto is not going to leave over 500mil on the table just for an additional 4mil a year. Moreover, in all likelihood he would not be able to find a suitor to give him anything close to the 500mil left on the contract as most of the years will be on the later side of 30.
@Richard Alicea
Teams routinely have opt outs.
Except they’re not called that.
Can you figure out what they’re called?
I think there’s a lot of side-eye viewing by Tucker’s team. If Tucker signs in the 35M AAV, Belli’s market is going to collapse.
He signed at $57.1 million. Should Bellinger’s market skyrocket now?
The opt out is bordering on transfer portal madness.
Only 2 productive years for him
Francis, Bellinger was the MVP with an 8.7 WAR in 2019. Before that in 2017-2018, he had 2 seasons of 4+ WAR. 2020 he had 1.7 WAR in a 60-game season. That is 4.7 WAR over a full season. From 2023-2025 he averaged 4.0 WAR and then had an exceptional 5.1 WAR season in 2025.
The Yankees could Make a substantial offer to Tucker trade the Martian and find a mid level left fielder with great defense and average offensive bat. Keeping Tucker from signing with a potential division rival and upgrading at the same time. Old GS move.
Boras is a genius. He literally has Cashman negotiating against himself.
At this point.. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yanks had offered a ‘mutual’ opt out.
( Botas, if you think that this “negotiation “ is a good one..Think again..)
Just give the man 40 per season for 6 years.
I’d like to see the jays make a run at him with Springer and Varsho being FAs after this year.
Worst soap opera still airing
Dodgers swoop in with a 3/290 with 4 opt outs
I like that 👍… 3 yr contract with 4 opt outs… the message board would explode
Opt out before the trade deadline would slap
This prima donna is annoying.
It’s his agent. He’s the issue. He does this every time. And somehow, he always seems to find a sucker.
Do you know what is really annoying, people claiming to be baseball fans, but not wanting the players to make as much money as they can?
What a stupid comment🤣. Sorry I’m annoying I guess.
I feel really bad for the Yankees because the Mets are going to be the ones to sign him
That ship has sailed. Bellinger is no longer interested in opt outs. They hold no value for a player going into his age 30 season. He wants the longest possible contract.
Agreed. He’s already done an opt-out deal which placed him in his current position. Why would he agree to do another one? Cashman holding firm at 5/$160M isn’t going to get it done. Go six years with a slightly higher AAV and include deferrals (like most other big spending teams do).
Even though this should’ve been a smart reunion for both sides, its really gone on for far longer than I expected. I would have moved on to darn near any other option if I were the Yanks. Maybe a higher AAV for fewer years with opt out options is the way to go. I’ll give the devil his due though, Boras (okay that comparison is a little mean I’ll admit) has dragged this on for far longer than I expected. And you would think that the later it gets means the less likely it is that his client gets exactly what he wants. But if the Yankees are still talking to him at this point, Bellinger/Boras may in fact have them in the palms of their hands.
Dude could go back to being a pumpkin at any time. This is crazy and it seems like the Yankees are negotiating against themselves here
Yeah, I’m kinda waiting for the blue jays to get involved. I could see the Mets offering like 2 years 80-90 mil, but as of right now, on a 5+ year deal, I think it’s only the Yankees.
There are others just like the Dodgers stealthily signing Tucker away from the Mets.
I can’t see the Dodgers wanting him back. Mets or Blue Jays maybe.
I’m referencing that there are other teams wanting Belli’s services. No, not the Dodgers.
He wants more years not to go back into free agency at 32 or 33. Now, I wouldn’t give him more years, but opt outs are great for 27 or 28 year old players, when they hit 30 they gotta lock up all the years they can.
From a Mets standpoint, they do need a left fielder, but I don’t really like or trust Bellinger that much. And it seems he’s more intent on getting a longer term deal than the short term higher AAV deal. Doesn’t seem like a fit with the Mets. I think he goes back to the Yankees.
Signing Belli would still make the Yankees offseason a disaster
What about a few opt-outs during the season. One in May, June and July?
This is all pretty pathetic, isn’t it? For both the team and player. Just go get a room and stop bugging us.
Also from Bob Klapisch:
#Yankees have made an internal decision not to engage in a bidding war for Cody Bellinger if #Mets or anyone else swoops in with a blow-away offer. Yankees believe they’ve made a fair proposal – five years, $160 million, two opt-outs. They’re prepared to let Bellinger walk.
I agree with the Yankees approach on this. Bellinger is good but not worth a blank check.
Bellinger’s 5.1 WAR last season is worth $51 million or a touch more.
His 4.0 WAR average over the past 3 seasons is worth $40 million per season.
Bellinger is definitely worth $35-37 million.
I’m good with it, the yanks offer is plenty fair. MLB isn’t dumb anymore, they realize the bat plays up at Yankee stadium. If he’s waiting for the mets or jays to get desperate so be it. I’m really ok with signing bader or austin hays to be OF insurance vs LHP (since grish, jasson, Spencer all suck vs lhp) and also provide good defense.
The Dodgers just signed Tucker to a $57.1 million AAV, $240 million total for 4 years, and you think Bellinger is not worth $32 million? Whatever you are drinking, put the bottle down.
Ok, I agree. Now,How do they replace the production in his absence?
Probably just go with Dominguez and reassess at the trade deadline.
Yup, this is what I’ve been saying. We have the personnel to start the season fine. Gove Jasson a real go, sprinkle in Jones. We can grab Hays cheaply and be fine.
Dominguez is a 0.5 WAR player, the Yankees have no depth behind him, and at the deadline teams with 5+ WAR outfielders like Bellinger are probably not going to be putting them on the market. If they did trade them, they would want most of the Yankees top prospects from what is already a very weak farm system. Not a good strategy.
This means nothing because it’s ultimately not up to us so I’m killing myself caring. The WAR bs means even less to me overall. Jasson hasn’t had a full go and excuse me for wanting to see them give him a shot. Jones too. If they don’t get Bellinger I’m honestly fine with that. If they pull a trade for a player, fine, if they sign a lesser dude, fine, but I think Cashman knows he does have personnel should he not and that’s partly why he’s not moving off his offer. The Yanks will be fine at the deadline as per usual because the system is fine, too. I’m not in the least worried or bothered by any of this right now.
You’re referencing WAR over and over, you understand players improve and decline right? There’s no guarantees on production
*not killing myself caring I meant.
I just don’t have your confidence,but I’m hoping you’re right, or close to it. Still need help in that pen.
Agreed. Definitely need an arm or two for sure.
Whats the old saying, the only two certainties are death and taxes?
Past performance is the best and in actuality the only indicator we have of future performance. When someone has been consistently good, then there is a pretty good chance they will continue to be good.
If you believe that, I have oceanfront property in Arizona I would like to sell you.
Lex Luther had a plan to sell beach front property in AZ, didn’t work out too well for him.
Desperation is a stinky cologne
Yankees run the risk of getting played. Unless there’s some mystery team out there that Boras is whispering in Heyman’s ear, the present offer is more than generous.
Please move on from this guy
If younger players are taking shorter deals then Bellinger should get 2 years and not anything longer
Signing him does nothing for the Yankees outlook Bellinger doesn’t get them past the Jays as they are a far better team and then there’s the juggernaut Dodgers even should the Yankees get that far.
Focus on building something from within and with the money saved over a couple years use it to your advantage aka the dodger play book
Does anyone really believe he won’t be a Yankee next season. It was really a given!!
I could see the blue jays or Mets swoop in and give Bellinger the 7 years. I don’t see the dodgers getting involved.
Dodgers are out..they have no money left… they just bought Greenland for $700 billion.
Looks like it’s NY vs NY for this one. Unless Toronto, with the richest owners in the league, want to get him.
People forget the Dodgers have the third richest owners after the Jays and Mets. So if they really want him the Yankees might be out of the equation.
Well if they lose out on bellinger. I was hoping for bichette and now he is gone but same logic get Luis Arreaz he is a hitting machine! Not so much as a power threat but someone that gets on. Then move jazz to LF. Also go and sign Austin Hays and trade will warren jasson Dominguez and Cunningham for Peralta and call it a day! But still holding hope that Belli resigns
Cashman giving away all leverage, again. Never give opt-outs to players as you cannot easily trade them for any value. Gives all the power to the player. Bellinger opts out when it is to his advantage and when he has a down year, just sits there doing little to nothing. Even the five year offer is too much as Bellinger is declining. Bellinger needs the NYY park to look good. His road numbers are not even league average.
BG1
“Cashman giving away all leverage, again. Never give opt-outs to players as you cannot easily trade them for any value. Gives all the power to the player. Bellinger opts out when it is to his advantage and when he has a down year, just sits there doing little to nothing. ”
Amazing that people think that they know this and the people that actually run teams don’t.
THIS article that you are commenting on shows how opt-outs benefit the team – the team gives a player opt-outs instead of money.
The Yankees don’t want to give Bellinger $200 million, so they are offering $150 million with opt-outs.
If they sign Bellinger to a contract with no opt-outs, and he”sucks”, then they are “stuck” with him too.
The opt-out faces saves team money.
The opt-out increases uncertainty.
That’s the trade off.
I hate negotiating, but I wouldn’t mind negotiating with a bunch of commenters here. They seem to have no idea how it works.
It’s almost the end of January and it feels like the Yankees are bidding against themselves. If a team was going to pivot to him. I think they would have by now. If he is looking for 300m/7yrs that is a big trigger to pull.
Exactly, and the only team that would be is the Mets. (maybe Toronto?) They’re still in play, though, and I’m sure Boras is utilizing that leverage.
Bellinger is the toughest player to evaluate. I think Bichette type contrct might be best. Because you don’t know which Bellinger you are going to get.
I think the Yankees know exactly what type of player Bellinger is…he may not be a 29 homer guy forward, but his penchant for contact, lack of K’s, left-handed lift at at the Stadium, and protection for Judge in the lineup is his makeup….the hangup is that at 31, a 7 year contract will be a bad contract most likely in its last season, and maybe the last 2-3….the Yankees obviously have determined that his makeup may in fact be an albatross in its later years and simply don’t want to be saddled with a Stanton like contract in its last years….
Well the extreme long contracts are to get around aav. He is a good deal at4-5 years 30m.
Yea this was news last week. Not 15 hours ago.
Yankees still sleeping!!