The Yankees reportedly have a five-year offer at more than $30MM annually on the table to Cody Bellinger. ESPN’s Buster Olney nevertheless wrote over the weekend that New York was preparing for the possibility that the outfielder could head elsewhere, potentially on a six-plus year contract.
Brendan Kuty of The Athletic added a few specifics on the Yankees’ position in a report this evening. Kuty writes that the five-year proposal came with a “true” $31-32MM average annual value, as it did not include any deferred money. He adds that the Yankees are willing to discuss opt-out possibilities as well, though it’s not known if their most recent offer actually included such a clause. Jon Heyman of The New York Post similarly suggested that some kind of opt-out was a possibility.
Contract length appears to be the significant stumbling block. Bellinger’s camp at the Boras Corporation is reportedly looking for a seven-year guarantee. Olney suggested over the weekend that he also wanted more than the Yankees were offering on an annual basis, yet the extra year or two seems the bigger hurdle. Bellinger is entering his age-30 season (though he turns 31 in July, less than two weeks after the unofficial July 1 cutoff for a player’s seasonal age).
As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker for Front Office subscribers, Brandon Nimmo signed the most recent six-plus year free agent deal for a hitter in his 30s. That eight-year pact was one of four such contracts over the 2022-23 offseason, but there hasn’t been one within the last two offseasons. Alex Bregman rejected a six-year offer from Detroit last winter in advance of his age-31 campaign. Bregman went on to agree to a five-year deal last week that’ll run through age-36, the same age at which a seven-year deal for Bellinger would conclude. Kyle Schwarber signed a five-year contract covering ages 33-37 last month.
Bellinger went short term with opt-outs during his last free agent trip. He signed a three-year, $80MM guarantee with outs after each of the first two seasons. After foregoing the first opportunity, he returned to the market on the heels of a .272/.334/.480 season in the Bronx. He’s unattached to a qualifying offer this time around and already seems assured of a much more lucrative guarantee than he commanded on his previous free agent deal.
He needs the yankees more than they need him. They are giving opt outs over years so he’s not the next Ellsbury.
Problem with that logic is if he declines he won’t opt out and he would be another Ellsbury
That’s why opt outs need to work both ways, especially for small market teams which would be bogged down by a big contract to a declining plàyer.
If you want an opt out, the team deserves the same luxury.
That would end opt outs really quick if it cut both ways.
“Oh my god these player options are hurting teams”
Then offer team options instead. It’s literally that simple. No one is forcing teams to sign Cody the pothead
This one: That’s called a non-guaranteed contract and the union wouldn’t let it fly, rightly. Also, opt outs are supposed to be an incentive. What’s the point of offering an incentive that’s the exact opposite of an incentive?
This. The silly idea that an opt out could ever benefit a team seems to refuse to ever die.
Why should it only benefit the player? Especially in this screwed up system.
There’s a reason a lot of guys are still sitting and deals are shorter now.
I can’t imagine any player would ever give a team the chance to bail on the back end of a mega deal. You’d be turning it into an NFL-style contract where the team could just ‘cut’ you and be out from under the deal. It would set a terrible precedent for your fellow players, who are all members of the same union. A contract having club options for additional years is one thing, but no agent would ever negotiate a contract with a club opt-out, because that would be the last MLB contract they ever negotiated.
Opt-outs are for enticing a player to sign with you. They’re solely there to benefit the player, just like no-trade clauses. Having opt-outs ‘cut both ways’ would be a non-starter for every player in the league.
This one: Teams don’t have to offer opt outs if they don’t feel they will benefit the team. Nobody forces owners to offer more than they do.
Exactly. Opt outs are player beneficial. If the player opts out, he put up a season that he and his agent feel that they will earn more money or get a year or two longer than the 3 years that a lot of these opt contracts seem to go for. If he doesn’t opt out he has a base pay that’s he comfortable with if the season goes to hell. Win/win for the player.
Yeah… Opt outs are player beneficial. There’s also mutual options, team options, vesting options, and probably a few other ways that contracts can be modified. The player opt out greatly benefits the player, the team option benefits the team.
That’s why they would be foolish to go beyond 5 years. Unless, of course, it’s at a lower AAV… I’d give him 6 years for $165m ($27.5 AAV) instead of the current 5 years for $155m ($31 AAV). It’s like one final year at $10 million.
Bingo! Well said as I do believe this will be the case when all said and done.
@rsox that’s why the years are lower.
It’s definitely looking like it’s time to move on from Bellinger. Yankees should zero on Tucker now. My guess is they will sign Austin Hays or Harrison Bader and platoon one of them with Dominguez in left field.
Mets are probably the only threat to top NYY offer….and that’s only if Mets don’t offer higher l-t guarantee to land Tucker relative to Toronto.
I keep saying it, the two sides coming together is whats best for both sides imo. But if he isn’t acccepting your offer at this very late point, he and Scotty boy are literally playing you. As an O’s fan to a division rival, move on at this point.
The problem is I don’t realistically see what option there is to move on to. I don’t see them paying for Bichette or Tucker. So what other option exists to replace Bellinger’s production at the top of the lineup? Sure, they can trade a few of their decent trade chips for a hitter but now you’ve eliminated those chips as bait for a pitcher. I also don’t see them signing one of the big SPs that are left. So, it boils down to Bellinger or a collection of hopes and prayers on young players and reclamation projects.
This is the real take actually. I don’t know if they would pony up the money for Tucker as he would be a far more an expensive option. Bichette I can only kind of see, I think potentially they could land him depending on his personal preferences but thats also a very up in the air type of thing. Personally I think you play hard ball with Bellinger, let Boras shop around, do his thing. If he finds a better offer than 5 years 150+ mil with negotiable opt outs then god bless him he did his job. I doubt he will find something better, but as they say a sucker is born every minute.
Its still the Yanks we’re talking about here though, I don’t doubt for one second that they wont be in the playoff picture come the end of the season next year.
He’s not getting 7 years from anyone. Yankees better off walking away instead of upping already too high an offer for player who only performs well every other year. Assume they settle at 6 years $31 million per
Bellinger needs the Yankees. Dude is trying to help you Bellinger, work with him. Geez
I think the idea Bellinger is getting six years or more is just the agent’s wet dream they are throwing out there
We have seen this act before when he ended up settling for all he could get.
It’s your world, Cody! It’s your world
Where does he want to play ? I don’t think he wants to be in the Bronx or in Queens. He wants to be somewhere warm but just waiting for a similar offer from such a team. If Rangers or Astros or Atlanta are interested now is their time to deal. Diamondbacks would be even more preferred
Have you ever been in NYC in Summer? Lol.
As long as he can smoke he’s probably chillin
Enough of this ..Let Spencer Jones and Jasson Dominguez battle it out for left field.
Sign Goldy, trade for Luis Robert.
It will cost a pair of prospects. Ben Hess and Brendan Jones could probably land Robert off the White Sox.
1 yr. / 30M on the pair with a 1 yr. / 30M team option to bring both back in ’27.
Extend Grisham 3 yr. / 65M
Summers are great but the cold spring and fall weather in non-dome cities diminishes peak performance and is hard on the body
NY usually isn’t that cold in the spring or the early fall, and it can get very muggy in the summer. The climate has zero to do with why a player might not want to play in NY.
Cody mashes in Yankee stadium. Doesn’t matter the weather, that short porch turns his pop-ups into homers.
It’s time for the Yankees to grow up and start doing deferrals in large and/or long contracts. They are giving their competitors an advantage in relatively lower luxury tax payments resulting from such contracts.
Man, Yankees starting to look desperate now. Just move on. Guy’s not worth it.
I agree, Old York. Enough already.
Opt-out’s are a nasty little epidemic.
I want to opt out of these negotiations already.
The way it’s going, this back and forth will probably end soon. I think Bellinger and Boras cave in to the Yankees offer.
If there’s an opt out after year 3 or 4, fine, but I don’t want him if they went to opt outs after year 2. Gimme three years of service and then you can skedaddle if you’d like.
Six years is too much, let alone 7. And opt-outs–Maybe one, after his 4th year, and only if it doesn’t mean he gets a big signing bonus and a front-loaded contract. But come on….an early opt-out is just treating the team like a cash machine that always spits out more a=every couple of years. Absurd asks, move on. This is a solid, useful player. Not a superstar.
can we please stop with the opt outs? A 5 year deal with an opt out after the 1st or 2nd year isnt a 5 year deal!! It’s a 1 or 2 year deal
More than five years is a no-go. Questionable health and performance declining. Bellinger needs NYY more than NYY needs Bellinger. Cashman keeps bidding against himself, a terrible weakness. Opt-outs give the player power and take it from the team. Exactly the problem when the Cubs were dumb enough to give him multiple opt-outs. Zero leverage to trade him each year. Lucky for the Cubs, Bellinger opted out.
He’s perfect for that park’s dimensions. Confident He will be back despite the PR gamesmanship
Stearns, jump in here and sign him to the Mets
I wouldn’t sign Bellinger. He thinks that he is way more then hes worth. Let him get an overpaid diva contract with the Tigers. His true value is 5 years 100 million. The Yankees shouldnt get desperate
Yankees better sign Austin Hays now. If they wait any longer for Bellinger to make up his mind, he won’t be available and then they will truly have to play Dominguez every day in left. I don’t see any chance of them signing Tucker, so Belli and Hayes are their two best options remaining (barring a trade).
He’s only had one hundred run scored and rbi season (the same year). Only hit .300 twice and hasn’t been an all star since 2019. He’s not worth all this
Once again the Yankees are bidding against themselves. I am no fan of opt-outs. It benefits the player if he does good and he’ll never opt-out if does bad. It never helps team, but it hurts them if he does good.
That’s exactly why it is a plus in negotiating. Realistically, if you sign Bellinger to a 5 year, $155 million deal… you’re on the hook for 5 years. If you give an opt-out (or multiple opt-outs) there is a potential bonus for the team too. If he has a monster year and decides to opt out, you got a one year deal for below his market value (1 years, $31m or 2 years at $62m). Not bad.
You can then choose to re-sign him again or move on. If he doesn’t opt out, you are still only on the hook for the original deal.
The players union is going to use OptOuts as leverage against a cap. Opt-outs will be gone and the game will continue to suffer more parody loss as the haves continue to dominate.
Last 5 years of production:
Judge: 1,075 OPS and 41.7 WAR
Vlad Jr. 0.879 OPS and 23.1 WAR
Bellinger 0.746 OPS and 11.7 WAR
Bellinger is asking for 92% of Judge’s salary while offering only 28% of production. Not worth it.
Those numbers are really skewed, it would be more accurate to use his last 3 years. His last two years in LA amount to negative WAR. He’s obviously shown he’s past that, with 3 consecutive productive seasons.
Judge – 26.1 WAR
Vlad Jr. – 12.6 WAR
Belli – 12.1 WAR
He’s still nowhere near Judge, but he compares well with Vladdy who just got a monster deal less than a year ago.
@melfman1
Even using the last 3 years, the issue isn’t WAR totals, it’s WAR per dollar and risk.
Bellinger is a ~4 WAR/year player asking for 8–9 WAR money. His value is defense- and position-dependent, which historically erodes fast in the 30s. At $37M AAV, you’re supposed to be buying offensive dominance, and an .816 OPS simply isn’t that.
Using the same 3-year window you’re asking for:
Average WAR per season (2023–25)
Judge: 8.7 WAR/year
Vladdy: 3.5 WAR/year
Bellinger: 3.8 WAR/year
At $37M AAV, Bellinger would be paid like an 8–9 WAR player while producing ~4 WAR.
Bellinger’s WAR is fragile in a way Judge’s or even Vladdy’s is not. His value is defense + versatility dependent If he slides from CF to 1B as he ages, 2–3 WAR disappears quickly Judge’s WAR is bat-driven; Vladdy’s contract was bat-first with age protection. You’re paying prime dollars for skills that historically age poorly.
Pass on Cody. You’ve made a fair offer. Move on.
This is just ridiculous. Cashman is bidding against himself. They need to move on from Bellinger. I like the player. He had a great year. He’s not worth anywhere close to this. Honestly at this point, I prefer Bichette. If you don’t want one of the young guys in the outfield, make a play for Donovan or something afterwards.
Not worth it
Just let him go,
I wll give Jasson to play LF, Spencer to play CF/LF from the bench.
Nimmo is a solid player, but I’m still baffled by that deal.
You’re not gonna get a better deal than that Belli. I heard the devil’s lettuce is phenomenal in New York. Stay in New York Bronx>Queens. My opinion doesn’t even matter I’ve never been to either place.
Strictly business.
Cohen got a little reckless with his money. They also paid Nimmo to be an everyday CF and lead off man, which after 1.5 years into the deal, he no longer was either.
@FrankRoo
Prediction:
Tucker signs with Blue Jays
Bichette signs with Red Sox
Bellinger signs with Mets
I think you’re on the money with Tucker, but I think Bichette goes to Philly. Mets may sign Bellinger… but if they do, it’ll be a high AAV, shorter term deal (3 years $115-$120m or something like that). I don’t see them going 6 or 7 years for Bellinger after just getting out of the Nimmo deal.
Love how Scott feeds Boras just enough to get the stories out (and the baseball world talking).
We’ll know if talks are on track or not by whether or not a mystery team appears.
Don’t shoot the messenger, but I’ve often wondered, especially in this political climate, why would a gifted athlete sign with the NY teams and/or California teams when the potential tax grab has to be a factor.