If the Rays are to compete for an AL East crown this year, it’ll probably be behind another huge year from Junior Caminero. The 22-year-old cemented himself as the face of the franchise with a 45-homer season in which he hit .264/.311/.535 across 653 plate appearances. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued him between four and five wins above replacement, the highest on the team.
That was Caminero’s first full season at the MLB level. He debuted at the tail end of 2023 but was optioned to Triple-A for the first few months of the ’24 season. He’s two years away from arbitration and under club control through 2030. Caminero tells Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times he’d be interested in exploring a long-term extension, though it doesn’t appear the team has opened those conversations yet.
“I’d like to (discuss it), but this is not my decision,” the young star said. “I feel this is my city, Tampa. I love Tampa, but this is not my decision. I’ll control what I control — just go play, have fun.” Caminero’s agent, Rafa Nieves of Republik Sports, said last August that the team hadn’t broached an extension. Nieves noted that the organization probably wasn’t in position to make the kind of commitment it would entail. They were midway through an ownership sale and had seen their long-term stadium plans fall through. “Honestly, by the time they’re out of those question marks, it might be too late,” Nieves said at the time.
The Rays have completed their ownership transfer in the intervening months. The Patrick Zalupski group officially purchased the franchise in late September. The stadium situation is an ongoing question, however. The team is targeting the Hillsborough College campus as the site for a mixed-use development project that would reportedly come with an estimated $2.3 billion price.
The team hasn’t announced anything publicly, but recent reporting from The Tampa Bay Times indicated they’re hoping for public funding to cover roughly half that amount. They’re still very early in the process and have no guarantees on the public funding front, which naturally raises questions about whether they want to make a significant long-term investment.
(They also still haven’t gotten an official ruling on whether they’ll be able to void the remaining $164MM in guarantees on the Wander Franco contract. Franco is not being paid while he’s on the restricted list pending resolution of a second trial after he was convicted of sexual abuse of a minor in the Dominican Republic last June.)
Nieves suggested last summer that he could look for a guarantee in the $150-200MM range if they worked on an extension. That’d be a little above the $130-135MM area in which Jackson Merrill and Roman Anthony have landed. Caminero is a year closer to free agency than Anthony was. He put up bigger power numbers than Merrill did but was similarly valuable overall in their respective first seasons. Merrill acknowledged at the time he signed his deal that he was likely leaving some money on the table to stay in San Diego.
The track record for top position player prospects who are this productive in their early 20s is excellent. There’s a strong chance that Caminero is a franchise cornerstone. If the Rays have any reservations about valuing him at that level, it’d probably be related to his home/road splits. Caminero was dramatically more productive at their temporary home of George M. Steinbrenner Field (.313/.358/.595) than he was on the road (.218/.266/.477). In all likelihood, that’s a product of an unsustainably low .197 BABIP in road games rather than an indication that he was a huge beneficiary of the minor league home park. The Rays are moving back to Tropicana Field for the 2026-28 seasons.
45hr as 21 yr old
Cant imagine anyone that age or younger has ever hit that many hr in mlb history
only Eddie Matthews has more at 47 in 1953 the only others close are Mel Ott with 42 at his age 20 season and Acuna hitting 41 at 21 pretty elite company to put it modestly
Bing – Cam had 28 homers before turning 22.
Eddie Mathews had 72 before turning 22.
Caminero’s agent obviously wants a signing bonus paid in ‘26 to offset a potential loss of salary due to a lockout in 2027.
Surprised he is open to taking a large pile of $.
From the rays though
I’d imagine he would take it from any team.
AI – Funny, I just had a similar back-and-forth about Roman.
Them: “Roman must really like playing for the Red Sox to sign an 8 year contract with them”.
Me: “He was not a free agent, he couldn’t sign a contract with any other team. So it’s either take the $130M guaranteed contract, or play for minimum salary the next 3 seasons and hope there’s no serious injuries the next 8 years. It’s a no-brainer.”
A little less ks and more walks and he is a top 10 batter in the game.
We’ll see if the Rays sign him to a major extension that makes Wander Franco’s contract look like a minor deal
😬
The fact they want $1.15B from the public is ridiculous, it’s robbery. The stadium doesn’t need to be so expensive. Just fund a modest one yourself. A stadium doesn’t need to be flashy and bloated.
If I had to guess… 8 years + Club Option $130 million (guaranteed), up to $230 million with escalators.
Signing Bonus $5 million.
Average Annual Value (AAV): $16,250,000.
Key Incentives: Escalators based on MVP voting ($2M for win, $1M for top-3)
I.e. Roman Anthony’s contract
I know they say sign before the team gets priced out by the rookie realizing he’s better off not extending when once his years are done in the controlled team state, he can get 500+million.
Fine, let some other team take those risks. I’m still laughing at the Dodgers paying $60M a year for a guy that may not make it a whole season during any of the 3 years of the deal. Ohtani getting that kind of money is appropriate for his performance, but when a player hasn’t either established multiple years of high performance or just shown they’re a sure thing (like if Camineiro also hit .315 with those homers) then I wouldn’t chance so many hundreds of millions on a player that might have had a great year, and then just hits 25-40 with a .240 avg the rest of their career.
I would be shocked if the rays give him a fair deal the rays are probably still weary of the Wander Franco situation
As long as it’s not a crazy amount a long term contract could create some stability for the Rays. A 24 year old who can hit well over 40 homers is a player you can build around.
I’m not surprised he’s saying this. Caminero shares the same agent with Jose Ramirez and was introduced to him last offseason where the two started working out together. It’s obvious that JRam is having a positive influence on him.