If the Rays are to compete for an AL East crown this year, it’ll probably be behind another huge year from Junior Caminero. The 22-year-old cemented himself as the face of the franchise with a 45-homer season in which he hit .264/.311/.535 across 653 plate appearances. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued him between four and five wins above replacement, the highest on the team.
That was Caminero’s first full season at the MLB level. He debuted at the tail end of 2023 but was optioned to Triple-A for the first few months of the ’24 season. He’s two years away from arbitration and under club control through 2030. Caminero tells Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times he’d be interested in exploring a long-term extension, though it doesn’t appear the team has opened those conversations yet.
“I’d like to (discuss it), but this is not my decision,” the young star said. “I feel this is my city, Tampa. I love Tampa, but this is not my decision. I’ll control what I control — just go play, have fun.” Caminero’s agent, Rafa Nieves of Republik Sports, said last August that the team hadn’t broached an extension. Nieves noted that the organization probably wasn’t in position to make the kind of commitment it would entail. They were midway through an ownership sale and had seen their long-term stadium plans fall through. “Honestly, by the time they’re out of those question marks, it might be too late,” Nieves said at the time.
The Rays have completed their ownership transfer in the intervening months. The Patrick Zalupski group officially purchased the franchise in late September. The stadium situation is an ongoing question, however. The team is targeting the Hillsborough College campus as the site for a mixed-use development project that would reportedly come with an estimated $2.3 billion price.
The team hasn’t announced anything publicly, but recent reporting from The Tampa Bay Times indicated they’re hoping for public funding to cover roughly half that amount. They’re still very early in the process and have no guarantees on the public funding front, which naturally raises questions about whether they want to make a significant long-term investment.
(They also still haven’t gotten an official ruling on whether they’ll be able to void the remaining $164MM in guarantees on the Wander Franco contract. Franco is not being paid while he’s on the restricted list pending resolution of a second trial after he was convicted of sexual abuse of a minor in the Dominican Republic last June.)
Nieves suggested last summer that he could look for a guarantee in the $150-200MM range if they worked on an extension. That’d be a little above the $130-135MM area in which Jackson Merrill and Roman Anthony have landed. Caminero is a year closer to free agency than Anthony was. He put up bigger power numbers than Merrill did but was similarly valuable overall in their respective first seasons. Merrill acknowledged at the time he signed his deal that he was likely leaving some money on the table to stay in San Diego.
The track record for top position player prospects who are this productive in their early 20s is excellent. There’s a strong chance that Caminero is a franchise cornerstone. If the Rays have any reservations about valuing him at that level, it’d probably be related to his home/road splits. Caminero was dramatically more productive at their temporary home of George M. Steinbrenner Field (.313/.358/.595) than he was on the road (.218/.266/.477). In all likelihood, that’s a product of an unsustainably low .197 BABIP in road games rather than an indication that he was a huge beneficiary of the minor league home park. The Rays are moving back to Tropicana Field for the 2026-28 seasons.
Caminero’s agent obviously wants a signing bonus paid in ‘26 to offset a potential loss of salary due to a lockout in 2027.
Rays should give him an extension, as long as they can confirm he doesn’t like little girls.
That’s a BS take horace
Nah what do you mean swan?
Le Grand Orange says hi
Rusty Staub? In relationship to what?
Yikes.
@Shawn Id say its likely more to do with Junior wanting the financial security. He is not a free agent til 2031 this is the ideal time for both team and player as the risk/reward starts to skew one way or the other from here.
only Eddie Matthews has more at 47 in 1953 the only others close are Mel Ott with 42 at his age 20 season and Acuna hitting 41 at 21 pretty elite company to put it modestly
Surprised he is open to taking a large pile of $.
From the rays though
I’d imagine he would take it from any team.
AI – Funny, I just had a similar back-and-forth about Roman.
Them: “Roman must really like playing for the Red Sox to sign an 8 year contract with them”.
Me: “He was not a free agent, he couldn’t sign a contract with any other team. So it’s either take the $130M guaranteed contract, or play for minimum salary the next 3 seasons and hope there’s no serious injuries the next 8 years. It’s a no-brainer.”
Roman isn’t Acuna. No brainer for him. I wouldn’t have called the Acuna contract a no brainer.
Even then it’s hard to turn down. You might be a younger fellow Rey or just a dreamer. But there’s lot’s of good investments out there. Lot’s of things that are never going to happen to me but if they do at best your baseball playing days are over.
Obviously have to be willing to bet on yourself and not take a huge low ball. But I wouldn’t ever turn down a fair enough offer.
I 100% agree with you given my own age and position. However, there are young players that have the “I’m invincible and that will never happen to me” mentality with a high-risk tolerance. Or a Boras client like Juan Soto who turned down $440M. The amount of money is relative.
Yeah and I’d imagine he’d rather do it with a team not permanently on a shoestring budget
No right or wrong. Less risk for a hitter vs pitcher. Signing bonus endorsements etc factor. Usually a good middle ground teams and players can agree on if they are being reasonable. The sell 2 free agent years for lifetime security then go for the mega deal would appeal to me the most.
If winning was important you would take less $ and sign with Dodgers. $ is most important to most people. If the Rays are willing to pay me now so I can take care of my family that’s more important than winning. And if you are winner you say to yourself with me the Rays are good team. I don’t remember seeing many or any players take less $ to sign with a winner. They all didn’t sign with Dodgers and ones who did got the most $ from them. These guys are mercenaries as they should be. Will agree some like if Kyle Schwarber got a better offer would still go back to Philly unless it was like tens of a millions more. If it’s just a few million you are going where you want to go. Kershaw really wanted to be a life Dodger. Teams that don’t win much extend players easily and often. Pirates haven’t won their division since 1992. Only got a wild card 3 times since. Only 4 winning seasons. Cutch Marte Polanco Cervelli Tabita Hayes Nova Harrison Reynolds Keller all signed extensions I believe. You know Nutting ain’t going much over 100 million payroll.
Rey – I think if you look back at players who were offered longterm contracts despite multiple years of team control remaining, the vast majority accepted. That’s because it’s generally smarter to have the security, rather than risking a large drop in production due to performance or injury. Kristian Campbell is a perfect example of that.
Soto was a rare exception because he’s so extremely talented and there were no injury concerns with him. But look around MLB, longterm contracts well before free agency is the norm.
I disagree on Acuna, he would need to stay healthy for an entire season before a team gives him $300M.
Rey – I agree with much of your post, especially the part about it all being a gamble. I think the level of risk is highly dependent on the timing of the extension offer.
Getting back to Soto, the Nats made the big extension offer after 4 seasons in which he put up a .981 OPS and was Top Ten in MVP voting for all 3 full seasons. He was justified in betting on himself.
Getting back to what I believe started this discussion, the Crochet extension, unlike Soto the contract offer was based solely on potential rather than track record. At the time Crochet never had a normal MLB season as a SP (he was basically just an opener for most of 2024), and he had only 219 IP in the majors and he was working his way back from a major injury that cost him most of 2022-2023. In his case, accepting a much higher than expected contract offer was indeed a no-brainer.
Rey – Yes.
No team would invest that much in a player without first being assured the injury issues were behind him. If you can think of an example, please let me know.
Fact is, since 2024 he has missed 180 games while playing in only 144 games. It’s very possible because of the injuries he will never be the player he was. We already saw last year he’s not able to run like he used to, stealing only 9 bags. His speed (73 steals) was a huge reason why he won MVP in 2023.
AI GM
No right or wrong. Less risk for a hitter vs pitcher.
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These are usually fairly close decisions. Oneil Cruz comes to mind, so I checked the ROY rankings for that year. Cruz, Rutschman, Harris, McCarthy, and Diaz all probably would’ve been better with an extension.
@ReyDay Few players get signed to the bargain type extension Acuna turned out to be. Even when injured the profit off name recognition alone likely pays his contract and then some.
Acuna just hit meteoric highs and had horrible timing with what played out economics wise since his extension. But there’s always got to be an extreme at both ends of every spectrum.
Rey – What you described is still the same thing, not being able to do what he used to do because of injury concerns. He is not as good a player without the running.
Insurance doesn’t reduce the CBT hit, his full salary would still count against it.
Tucker was projected for $400M, he got $228M
Bo was projected for $208M, he got $126M
You’re kinda helping me make my point ;O)
As for Acuna, we will never know what could have been.
@Rey More teams now then at any point in MLB history have been willing to give out 10 yr contracts. There have been 29 contracts in MLB history of 10 yrs or more and 13 of those were signed in last 5 yrs.
@Rey You are spot in about Tucker. Its way to early to state he did not get what he was projected. He did get a much higher AAV and whether he makes more or less longterm isn’t to be seen.
As for Acuna not running, that very well could be addition by subtraction. He has led MLB twice in being caught stealing. Fever seems to not mention how that wont seem to be very likely to happen now.
There was no player worth signing to a 10 yr deal in free agency this year. One was signed last offseason. It had nothing to do with them being viewed in a negative light. Look at the list of the 29 10-yr deals its pretty elite group of players.
As for why teams are pushing for these shorter higher AAV deals, its likely more to do with supply and demand. The craze of locking in young talent early is starting to hit free agent classes. In doing so the supply of talent is way down and the top of the free agent classes have had alot of players with question marks.
By and large teams have been more willing then at any time in MLB history to sign elite players to 10+ yr deals. We have saw deals if that length in the prior 2 offseasons and nothing has changed since then of note that teams would suddenly be reluctant of.
Rey – The actual condition of his legs, especially his ACL’s, is something only the Braves and Acuna know. Maybe they are being overly cautious, or maybe he is at high risk of another similar injury and don’t want to chance it.
It’s like Axl Rose, he can still sometimes bring the rasp but he most often chooses not to because when he does bring it his vocal cords could completely blow out.
You mentioned insurance as a reason for a team to not worry about a longterm contract. Sure if insurance kicks in that helps with the financials, but it doesn’t help with CBT space or the CBT penalties incurred when you have to go over the threshold because you need to spend more money for an injury replacement.
It’s generally a good idea to look at total contract NPV rather than AAV, as teams often play around with contract length for various reasons.
I think we are meeting in the middle now. I was referring to your $300M suggestion. If you are saying Acuna could have still gotten let’s say $90M this offseason as a free agent then yes that would have been possible, assuming the medicals check out.
Good conversation my friend! I’m rooting for Acuna, except when I am at Truist the weekend of May 15th (I am really grateful the Sox always seem to play in Atlanta on a weekend!)
Acuna atte.pted 10 stolen bases last season and was successful 9 times. It seems the ability is still there as he stole a decent few and at a higher success rate then he typically has throughout his career.
I dont know the particulars on any of those SBs but an educated guess would be that most were in higher leverage situations. Assuming thats the case his running still being available when really needed further offsets any loss in value.
Unless he has some type of issue thats yet to be reported its pretty safe to assume the condition of his ACL . Ligaments have to be repaired and then rehabbed which involves stretching it out. From there the injury risk is not so much due to the ligament itself it is the imbalance in muscles. With an injury such as that and favoring one leg you have one leg getting weaker and the other leg getting stronger pushing both further from mean. It is something that corrects over time but likely will take a few yrs to get to their natural balance.
Soto, Vlad, Yamamoto, Witt, Ohtani, JRod, Will Smith all signed 10+ yr deals since the last player you mentioned signed theirs in 2023.
There really has not been a shift.
I just listed the 10 yr contracts from the prior 2 offseasons. Again there were higher AAV contracts because the free agent class didnt have an Ohtani, Soto, JRod, or Witt.
Tucker has been a very good to great player he is not in that top tier that teams are trying to lock up for 10 yrs as the fave of their franchise.
The past 5 yrs has seen the most 10 yr deals in the history of the game. That in no way is indicative of a shift in mentality. Sorry but thats just reality.
Its not about what makes sense for the team, the top tier players have multiple suitors and while sign elsewhere.
The team signed them for 10 year contracts. They are now players that are under contract and no longer will go through arbitration. Players who are in arbitration can be dropped, neither Witt or JRod can as they are under contract.
Tucker once was 5th in MLB voting. Hes not an elite face of a franchise player.
A little less ks and more walks and he is a top 10 batter in the game.
His K rate is already sub-20 what more do you want for a guy with his kind of power.
Bing – Cam had 28 homers before turning 22.
Eddie Mathews had 72 before turning 22.
We’ll see if the Rays sign him to a major extension that makes Wander Franco’s contract look like a minor deal
😬
The fact they want $1.15B from the public is ridiculous, it’s robbery. The stadium doesn’t need to be so expensive. Just fund a modest one yourself. A stadium doesn’t need to be flashy and bloated.
If I had to guess… 8 years + Club Option $130 million (guaranteed), up to $230 million with escalators.
Signing Bonus $5 million.
Average Annual Value (AAV): $16,250,000.
Key Incentives: Escalators based on MVP voting ($2M for win, $1M for top-3)
I.e. Roman Anthony’s contract
I know they say sign before the team gets priced out by the rookie realizing he’s better off not extending when once his years are done in the controlled team state, he can get 500+million.
Fine, let some other team take those risks. I’m still laughing at the Dodgers paying $60M a year for a guy that may not make it a whole season during any of the 3 years of the deal. Ohtani getting that kind of money is appropriate for his performance, but when a player hasn’t either established multiple years of high performance or just shown they’re a sure thing (like if Camineiro also hit .315 with those homers) then I wouldn’t chance so many hundreds of millions on a player that might have had a great year, and then just hits 25-40 with a .240 avg the rest of their career.
WTWR
“I’m still laughing at the Dodgers paying $60M a year for a guy that may not make it a whole season during any of the 3 years of the deal”
I’m sure you’re a much better talent evaluator than the people in charge of the back-to-back champions who also have the most wins in baseball since they took over the franchise
Trea Turner won the ’25 NL batting crown with a .304. Baseball today ain’t what it used to be.
To ask for a .315 avg. prodigous power hitter today is like asking for a perennial MVP candidate who will 99% not be signing an extension.
Id say he is better off with a big insurance policy in ’26 and in going through the arbitration process.
He will lock in life-changing money in ’27 as a Super Two player. Caminero should get arbitration next season.
I would be shocked if the rays give him a fair deal the rays are probably still weary of the Wander Franco situation
As long as it’s not a crazy amount a long term contract could create some stability for the Rays. A 24 year old who can hit well over 40 homers is a player you can build around.
I’m not surprised he’s saying this. Caminero shares the same agent with Jose Ramirez and was introduced to him last offseason where the two started working out together. It’s obvious that JRam is having a positive influence on him.
And they could have been part of the same infield if it wasn’t for Tobias Myers. I frequently think about that
Caminero, Kurtz, Langford , Stowers would love to see them all sign extensions.
Brown and Pena? Oh wait no, your only doing pre-arb players. I think Langford is a pre-arb player?
Yeah just pre-arbs b/c those guys are more likely to sign extensions.
Scott Boras clients aren’t.
Indeed they won’t. I was hoping we would lock up Langeliers on an extension but he is a Boras client. Sucks.
Yeah. We did one with Altuve and McCullers Jr (Altuve said he didn’t want to be a free agent, so he should be Wasserman, not Boras). Hopefully we can get one worked out with either Brown or Pena.
Oof Pena is going to be tough because he’s scheduled for `28 and he’s the clear headliner in the SS class (Pena, Baez, Story, and Taylor Walls).
There are not very many quality shortstops in that year.
As they should! Franco was a bust, so you have to pay Caminero to be the face of your franchise for the minimum of 10 years. He should get a huge bag for being such a stud
Franco could have had a mvp to his name already. Bust isn’t the right word for someone who was obviously very gifted in the sport of baseball and had showed that.
Yeah, Franco and Clase are very very very very very very stupid. Both could be potential future HOFers, but they decided to commit crimes (Clase not guilty yet).
So I’m not saying its a bad idea to look into a long term extension with the lad. He’s definitely full of potential. As noted above he did hit extremely better at Steinbrenner field than he did on the road. Perhaps understandably soas it is a minor league ballpark. I think it would be wise to at least engage with him on a possible extension. If he goes out and proves he can do it anywhere, not just a minor league ballpark, he may price himself out of what the Rays might be willing to pay. Its a slippery slop though, you can wait and see, and he could increase his earning potential through his performance, he could falter and decrease it and you may get a bargain for a young talented player. Maybe he performs somewhere in between and both sides come to a fair agreement.
His dWAR was a -0.1 and he made 18 errors at third which I think was the most by a 3rd baseman last season so he’s at least a questionable defender.
Not arbitration eligible until 2028 and not a free agent until 2031. Personally I think you wait a bit and see what he can do this season. He may make himself a bit more pricey for sure, but knowing that last year wasn’t a fluke would make a 22 year old worth resigning for sure. Definitely a gamble though, his first full season was great but still leaves questions.
The Braves may have to look at the trade market. May have to part with Riley. The Red Sox are probably still looking for some power at 3rd and have excess pitching. Hmm!
It would be nice to see the Rays lock up a player long term and actually have the player finish his career with them. Evan Longoria should have been that player, maybe Caminaro could be
Comparing different periods is difficult but Tony Conigliaro was pretty good.
’23 – Prearb (Age 20)
’24 – Prearb (21)
’25 – Prearb (22)
’26 – Prearb (23)
’27 – ARB1 (24) (Super Two)
’28 – ARB2 (25)
’29 – ARB3 (26)
’30 – ARB4 (27)
Bellinger holds the record for Arb1 salary at 11.5M – Caminero as a Super Two player in ’27 could break that record and stands to make around 90 to 100M through the arbitration process if he continues on his current trajectory.
Wander Franco was a great ball player. I was in Tampa when Wander was first suspended and remember how much of a loss it was for the team in ’23.
Damn if I wasn’t a big fan of Trevor Bauer too.
Hope Wander gets a fair shake in the D.R., I believe he is innocent in some regard. Even if MLB blackballs him like they have Bauer, would be good to read about Franco tearing up Nippon.
Extend him and backload it. Make the final three years $30M and someone will still trade for him.
If they can get out from under the Wander Fiasco it’s a lock for the Rays to extend him. Probably with a much higher $ amount than WF.
The Rays have already been bitten by a player who signed. a long term deal. They have to include provisions to protect the team in case this 22 year old makes the same mistake Franco did. Most young athletes who never had money always fall victim to gold diggers or place themselves in illegal situations. It’s like with all the parents who allowed their kids to stay with Michael Jackson.
So stop taking risks to build your brand because one’s been burnt before? It’s not the like the Rays lost much in paid out salary to Franco. Maybe a hit to their PR but their fans have moved on. Teams can’t require contract provisions which the CBA doesn’t already allow.