Zack Wheeler is maybe the biggest wild card as the Phillies try to claim a third straight NL East title. The ace is working back from the thoracic outlet surgery that ended his 2025 season. The procedure came with a six to eight month recovery timeline from the end of September, calling his availability for the start of ’26 into question.
As camp gets underway, manager Rob Thomson provided a vague timetable for Wheeler’s return. “I don’t think he’ll be ready for Opening Day but it’s not going to be too far beyond that,” Thomson told reporters (link via Paul Casella of MLB.com). The 35-year-old righty is throwing from flat ground and “doing well” in the manager’s words, yet the Phils are obviously going to be cautious with the three-time All-Star. He has not progressed to mound work.
Between Wheeler’s injury and the free agent departure of Ranger Suárez, it’s a thinner starting staff than usual. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters (including Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer) they’ll look to deepen that group throughout the spring. “When our scouts go out there, that’ll be one of our focuses. And we may develop that internally, too; there’s some guys that we do like. But that’ll be a focus of ours, is starting pitching depth,” Dombrowski said.
That’s not to say the Phillies are likely to add Zac Gallen, Lucas Giolito or Chris Bassitt. It’s generally expected that their three-year deal to bring back J.T. Realmuto was the final big move of an offseason built around re-signing Kyle Schwarber that also saw them sign right fielder Adolis García and reliever Brad Keller.
There are some potential swing options available in free agency (e.g. Jose Quintana, Aaron Civale), though Dombrowski suggested there might be opportunities on the trade front. He noted that the relatively slow-moving free agent market for starting pitching could make some fringe arms on those signing teams available via trade — though that could certainly be counteracted as teams start losing pitchers to injury, as happens every year during Spring Training. A trade would also provide the Phillies with some extra roster flexibility if they can add someone who still has options remaining. Most free agents have the five-plus years of service time that gives them the right to refuse a minor league assignment.
Assuming Wheeler begins the season on the injured list, Cy Young runner-up Cristopher Sánchez should get his first Opening Day start. He’ll be followed in the rotation by Jesús Luzardo and Aaron Nola. Taijuan Walker worked in a swing role last year but seems more or less assured of a season-opening rotation spot.
That’d leave the fifth spot available in a camp battle. Top prospect Andrew Painter has a legitimate chance to win the job. Philly needed to add him to the 40-man roster this offseason because he’d reached Rule 5 eligibility. His stock has dipped a little from the time that he was widely viewed as the #1 pitching prospect in the sport. An elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery cost him the 2023-24 seasons.
Painter’s numbers at Triple-A Lehigh Valley last year weren’t as impressive. He surrendered a 5.40 ERA with a good but not elite 23.4% strikeout rate over 22 starts. He proved more susceptible to the home run than the Phillies would have liked, though his raw stuff remained very impressive. Painter averaged nearly 97 mph on his four-seam fastball while mixing in three breaking pitches (cutter, slider, curveball) and a changeup. He got whiffs on a strong 13% of his offerings. He remains one of the better pitching prospects in MLB and one of Philly’s top three minor league talents alongside shortstop Aidan Miller and outfielder Justin Crawford.
If Painter scuffles during Spring Training, the Phils can option him back to Lehigh Valley. They’re currently without many real alternatives to hold the fort until Wheeler’s season debut, however. Their other starters on the 40-man roster (e.g. Jean Cabrera, Yoniel Curet, Alan Rangel) also have little to no MLB experience. Non-roster invitees Tucker Davidson and Bryse Wilson don’t inspire a ton of confidence. Keller has starting experience but was signed to be a high-leverage reliever.
It’s understandable the Phillies want to leave the door open for Painter to win the job, especially if they anticipate Wheeler coming back within the first few weeks of the regular season. At the same time, even one more injury would leave the rotation looking precarious. Nola is coming off a bad season and Walker’s tenure in Philly has been a mixed bag. Wheeler is no guarantee to look the same as he did before the surgery. Adding some kind of swing depth is a must.
Giolito or Bassit to the Phillies
RSox, Giolito makes sense but I think DD is looking for a less expensive pitcher given the tax implications.
Maybe bring Buehler back. He pitched pretty well for them last September
I don’t know why they haven’t done this already. His curve ball was really good last year, but his fastball was about 2MPH short of where it needs to be but he was coming off Tommy John. I’d be willing to bet he’d be willing to sign a split contract.
Some Numbers were not good even with the Phillies…
5K and 4BB per Nine with the Phillies is scary. We are only talking 13 innings. Most lkely lots of luck considering the overall numbers the last 2 years combined…..He has not had a good stretch since missing 2023.
Sure you can sign him to a Minor League Deal and hope maybe something clicks further out from injury.
However, I do agree whoever they get will not be pricey. In a Perfect World, Painter does well and Earns a Spot and Wheeler is Healthy so the Rotation is Wheeler, Sanchez, Luzardo, Noal, and Painter by early May with Walker as long man. They mostly need an AAAA Pitcher with Options they can move up and down to start or a Long-Man who can help perhaps get you 4-5 innings as part of a BullPen Game until the rotation is ready. Better chance they do nothing for another month, when they have an idea if Painter will or won’t make the Rotation (Or Wheeler has unexpected issues). If he does then the short-term need is just a long-man in the Pen while Walker holds down the 5th spot for a month.
Painter, the post-TJ version of Painter, is a pitcher who doesn’t throw enough strikes. Dombrowski should have cashed him in at the winter meetings for Rutschman or Ford.
Instead, the Phillies will gamble that he can miraculously find the stiff that made him a top prospect 3-4 years ago. And the odds for that are maybe 1 in 3.
Control was never an issue. All reports are his “Stuff” is back. Control is just a matter of getting back your consistency back which comes with time. If his velocity, spin rates, movement, etc… were impacted there is a issue.
And you want the Phillies to Trade ESPN’s #27 Prospect for their 82nd Prospect? No Thanks.
Aaron Civale
Show me Gallen.
I feel like he’s the least likely because of the QO.
Oh man, I was envisioning Wheeler out until June or so…this is actually good news!!!
I doubt it. I expect more of a swingman/depth piece.
I’m sure 5/175m will do it.
They better get someone reliable
Steve Carlton
R.A. Dickey.
Have to find him first. No phone, no TV. Lives in a mountain. He still thinks Jose Mesa pitches for the Phillies.
Kent Tekulve. Mr RubberBand Man himself. Shame Leftys attempt to come back as a righty failed. That would have been fun to see.
Dombrowski counting on being able to trade for Kutter or Sandoval. Has he made a trade with the Red Sox since getting fired?
Quintana would be my pick. Hoping he ends up a Padre though.
Luis Castillo for Stott.
And the Phillies are realizing this just now? They knew Wheeler would be coming back after the start of the season. We all know Painter is potentially exciting or potentially Spencer Howard 2.0.
Nola is hit or miss after last season and receiving his past performance millions. Which of you let him walk last year, you probably resign Suarez or go after someone else.
Left field is still a question mark. Crawford is going to be given centerfield and could be no better than Rojas against MLB pitching.
So yeah, the Phillies could have solved this “need for depth” problem in December.
With that said, go get Chris Bassitt and Walker Buehler. Both can pitch as starters or relievers and both are better than Tjuan Walker. Walker and Castellanos’ wasted money is why this team has no wiggle room for funds.
I’d be shocked and surprised if they signed Gallen. I’d love it. He’s a Bishop Eustace guy and very popular locally but he had a down year too and could be another version of Nola. Nothing like waiting until Christmas Eve or the day of Valentine’s Day to buy a gift. When you do that, you wind up with stuff from Boscov’s or gas station flowers. Nice going DD.
Wow Jackson has been saying this since last season.
Whoever we do sign should be nicknamed Gas Station Flowers.
TOS Surgery? He is done. Better get Eflin or Bassitt.
Lol. Read the article. He had it last season. Already mostly recovered.
And there are different kinds of injuries needing TOS. Wheelers was the far less serious version
My man Big Willie suggested German Marquez. Getting out of Colorado will be an absolute blessing for him.
Every day they wait, the pickings get leaner and the price of those will go up. There’s no difference now and in , say, December as far as Wheeler being healthy and Painter being ready. There now are fewer options available, and the few good ones won’t come more cheaply. This is not going to work out well…
Thomson said they are better today than they were a year ago. Aside from Duran, the only thing they are is older.
I don’t get the lack of love for Chris Bassitt. Dunno. Maybe he wants too much money. and/or years? Would love to see him in a Phillies uniform.
Jackson Bobbin you know you are a genius
Brandon Williamson for castellanos. Teams pay for the original players salary. Philis can still sign another player but this is depth
If they’re looking to acquire that rotation depth using Nick Castellanos as the trade bait, then they can forget it, unless they pay the entire contract and even then, it won’t be anyone good.
A lot depends on when they expect Wheeler back. If he misses 4 starts, then they should use Walker and hope he goes 2-2. If it is more like 8-10 starts, then they should’ve gone after nick Martinez. He still stays valuable in the BP even after Wheeler returns.
Past that, the RS SP depth is thinning out, but they still have some guys that won’t ruin the Phillie budget or farm.
What a revelation to think this rotation beyond Sanchez and luzardo is solid. Counting on Nola and Walker to somehow become something they aren’t 500 pitchers, a rookie coming off a bad triple A season Now. Wheeler a massive question mark IMO. Dombrowski is foolish to be downplaying this IMO.
There might be a limit to how much DD can spend. Including CBT, they are up to $371M.
Idk why Painter struggled last year, but he’s way too talented. I will draft him everywhere 😂
I wish Yahoo still had an NA slot. He might be a good gamble after they open up the IL spots. Painter was top-shelf before the TJS.
Is there no longer an NA Spot on Yahoo?
It’s tough because they won’t be guaranteeing a job to whomever they sign. That’s why it’s taking so long. They’re just looking for a sub 10m depth piece. A swingman who would move to the pen.
How about something different? Like trading Nick Castellanos for Antonio Senzatela from the Rockies?
Both are sunk costs on their current team but are in the last years of their contracts, maybe Nicks bat comes alive in Colorado and pitching at sea level all season long helps Senzatela and would be a dept option for the Phillies the man is what 30/31? Still time to turn it around.
If I recall correctly, Wheeler is on the record stating that when his contract is up, he will be retiring.
Its a big season for Wheeler in many senses. I think he will press that timeline up as much as possible.
Phillies rotation is looking soft. It is hard to believe they weren’t in on Edward Cabrera or Mackenzie Gore. They seem to have the prospects to land a young, front-of-the rotation starter.
The Castellanos deal could be very interesting. I can see Joe Ryan coming into Philadelphia in a Castellanos trade. A sizeable package of prospects could land too.
Twins could potentially land a ridiculous haul from Philly if they took on all of Castellanos money and sent Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton.
Crawford, Kemp, Miller, Painter, Chace, Curet and Wood. Could land a pick of prospects and their payroll wouldnt go up at all sending out Ryan and Buxton. Could be a massive trade and a massive return for the Twins.
Castellanos could play up to his contract to boot.
Hard no. Joe Ryan is a solid pitcher, and Buxton is great to have … when you have him on the field. He’s in his 11th season. Last year he played 126 games – it’s his third season with more than 100 games played.
The way you control costs is to work prospects into the mix, not to trade them for aging players. The Phils can’t afford to dump their top-line prospects if they have any hope of extending their window, especially not for half a season of Byron Buxton.
I dont know who the Phillies are going to get, I feel like they need two starters.
If the Twins took 20M off there hands in Castellanos and sent Ryan and Buxton, the money offsets for the most part.
Phillies add an ace and all-star and are in a much better position heading into the season.
Phillies already in the third tier of the tax, every player they add is a big stack of dough.
Twins could right their ship if the Phillies sent the right package of players.
That will never happen. At best the Phillies will be paying $17 million of Casy’s contract