With Opening Day just around the corner, the offseason is more or less complete for MLB’s 30 clubs and teams are now focused on the incoming season and being the final team standing to raise the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, however, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. In the run-up to the start of the season, we will be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. That series starts today with the AL East. All teams are listed in order of their 2025 regular season record:
Toronto Blue Jays (94-68)
The Blue Jays only narrowly won the AL East last year, with the division coming down to a tiebreaker. They made a much more convincing case for themselves as the top dog in the division come the postseason, however, as they easily dispatched the Yankees in the ALDS and went on to make it all the way to Game 7 of the World Series before losing that final game against the mighty Dodgers by just a hair. They went on to have an aggressive offseason in their efforts to stay at the top of the totem pole. The Jays lost Bo Bichette and Chris Bassitt to free agency, but managed to retain Max Scherzer while adding Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce to a rotation that already boasts Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Trey Yesavage. Their efforts to improve on the pitching side didn’t ignore the bullpen either, as Tyler Rogers was brought in to support Jeff Hoffman and Louis Varland in the late innings. Losing Bichette certainly hurts for Toronto’s offense, but Kazuma Okamoto figures to be an able replacement as a right-handed bat in the middle of the order, and the team also bolstered their outfield depth with the addition of Jesus Sanchez. Will that be enough to maintain control in the East, or will Toronto brass regret missing out on Bichette and Kyle Tucker this winter?
New York Yankees (94-68)
The Yankees only lost the East by a hair last year. Their plan for this season appears to be running back last year’s squad and hoping that the return of Gerrit Cole can push them over the edge. Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Amed Rosario, Trent Grisham, and Paul Blackburn are all returning via free agency. With that being said, the team didn’t make any significant additions aside from bringing back the old guard when it comes to free agency. Their lone major addition to the roster this offseason was a trade with the Marlins that brought back southpaw Ryan Weathers, who has never thrown even 100 innings in a season but does sport a solid 3.74 ERA across his last 24 outings. That addition to the rotation mix is matched by a substantial loss in the bullpen, however, as both Devin Williams and Luke Weaver eschewed the Bronx in favor of Queens during free agency. Perhaps the additions of Cole (as he returns from a season lost to Tommy John surgery) and Weathers will make up for those losses, but the Yankees will also have to contend with the injury bug; Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Anthony Volpe are all starting the season on the injured list, while Clarke Schmidt is already lost for the year to elbow surgery.
Boston Red Sox (89-73)
The Red Sox certainly had a busy offseason, but it’s not exactly the ones fans were expecting. Alex Bregman is suddenly a Chicago Cub. Both Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu remain with the Red Sox. While the team’s elite outfield remains intact, the infield looks somewhat suspect. The addition of Willson Contreras at first base should provide some reliability that former top prospect Triston Casas has not been able to so far in his career, but the Red Sox will be banking on another solid season from Trevor Story after his bounce-back in 2025 while turning to Marcelo Mayer at second base and Caleb Durbin at third base. All three of those players have the opportunity to be solid, but only Mayer has a ceiling comparable to the impact Bregman offered and fans in Boston need not be reminded of the risks associated with handing the keys to a young player at second base after Kristian Campbell‘s rookie year. On the other hand, the team’s pitching looks better than ever. Garrett Crochet nearly won the Cy Young award last year, and this season he’ll be supported by both Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray to give the Red Sox one of the more impressive potential playoff rotations in the game. Will that be enough to win the AL East this year, given the club’s lack of impact hitting additions?
Tampa Bay Rays (77-85)
The Rays are coming off back-to-back seasons where they finished just a bit below .500. After the rest of the division spent the offseason loading up on talent for the 2026 campaign, a lot will need to go right for the Rays to improve this year. Junior Caminero is a superstar at third base but the losses of Brandon Lowe and Pete Fairbanks figure to be a tough blow this year. In typical Rays fashion, the club’s additions aren’t necessarily impactful on paper. None of Jake Fraley, Gavin Lux, Cedric Mullins, Steven Matz, and Nick Martinez had impact seasons last year but they’ve all shown themselves to be more than capable of being effective major leaguers in the past. Additionally, young pieces like Ryan Pepiot and Carson Williams could plausibly take the sort of step forward Jonathan Aranda did last year, therefore joining Aranda and Yandy Diaz as strong pieces of Caminero’s supporting cast. Will all that be enough to overcome the Rays’ high-spending rivals?
Baltimore Orioles (75-87)
The Orioles had a disaster of a 2025 season but they resolved to fix their flaws in this offseason and made a strong effort to do just that. Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward brought in reliable, right-handed power that a lineup stacked with upside but lacking in floor desperately needed. A revamped rotation featuring not just a healthy Kyle Bradish but also a reunion with Zach Eflin plus the additions of both Shane Baz and Chris Bassitt certainly offers more upside than last year’s group, even if they failed to sign the surefire ace they entered the season widely expected to target. That improved rotation is also being supported by a bullpen that brought back Andrew Kittredge after dealing him away at the trade deadline and added Ryan Helsley in order to replace injured closer Felix Bautista. The bones of a very deep and talented team are clearly present in Baltimore but whether they can rise from fifth in the division all the way to first will surely depend on the health and performance of their core pieces like Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg and Adley Rutschman. Gunnar Henderson remains a good bet to earn himself MVP votes but will the rest of that elite group of youngsters be able to start to catch up to him?
After a busy offseason all around the AL East, which team is most likely to come out on top this year? Will the Blue Jays hold on after their near-miss at a championship last season? Will the Yankees be able to get better results with the same roster? Will the Red Sox or Orioles be able to make an unorthodox offseason into a success despite notable misses on some stated goals for the winter? Or will the Rays once again work the magic that’s made them so successful in the past and surprise the league? Have your say in the poll below:
Don’t know, but it’ll definitely be a slugfest and bloodbath to see who wins it.
As it should be
swan – Best division in baseball, wouldn’t be surprised if every team finishes with at least 80 wins.
If Cease pitches like he did in San Diego last year, look out.
Yeh, that 4.55 ERA is imposing isn’t it….
using era to evaluate a pitcher… how quaint
Given their job is to restrict runs and get outs it’s got to be at least quite relevant. But then, you’d know best.
Toronto is due a huge hangover year. Wouldn’t be surprised if they miss out completely on the dance. Boston has the best pitching overall and a budding megastar in Anthony, they get my vote.
Teams usually have a hangover after winning it all the year before. Losing the WS can be a motivating factor.
Source?
Well, my conjecture is as good yours. But, look at the past WS winners. The Royals lost in 2014, but won it in ‘2015. The Astros lost it in 2021 but won it in 2022.
Losing the LCS has an impact as well. The Cubs lost the NLCS in 2015, and won the WS in 2016. The Braves lost the 2020 NLCS, and won the 2021 WS. The Astros lost the 2020 ALCS, but got to the WS in 2021, and again, winning it in 2022. The Dodgers lost the 2016 NLCS, and advanced to the WS the following year.
On the other hand AZ disappeared after losing to the Rangers. So whether or not losing is a motivating factor is nothing I’d insist is a fact. But the anecdotal evidence leans in that direction.
This sure is a lot of words.
You asked for the source of my opinion. Now you’re going to gripe because it’s more words than you want to read?
going back further the Red Sox lost the ALCS in ’03 and won the series in ’04
You are saying what teams usually do, yet you cherrypick which teams u reference? When one has to hand pick a data set it kind of takes away any meaning behind said data set.
You kind of asked for it…
No worries, brother. You did well. You may even be right.
Charge on.
“Well, my conjecture is as good yours. ”
“Teams usually have a hangover after winning it all the year before. Losing the WS can be a motivating factor.”
You didn’t state this as conjecture, you stated it as fact.
I spent one year teaching GED classes. One part of the curriculum was being able to tell fact from option.
Those were very important lessons. And a lot of students were very bad at it
@jean
Cards also lost the 05 nlcs and went on to win the 06 ws
@Lfcredsoc
After coming back 3-1 to the yanks no one was beating that Red Sox team that year
Bottom line here is no one knows how things will play out. There’s usually enough roster turnover for most teams and enough variance from year to year in the fortunes of players who return that nothing is predictable. Toronto finishing last in the division in 2024 certainly didn’t portend them making it to extra innings of game 7 of the WS in 2025. NY getting beaten in the WS in 2024 didn’t get them back there with resolve to win it in 2025. This season will be its own entity.
Tigers3232. Your interpretation of what I did is completely off. I didn’t cherry-pick teams. I cited examples from the past 10 years or so. It was not a hand-picked data set. The data set was the recent past. And within that data set I cited multiple examples to support my opinion.
It’s not a huge percentage that came back to win after losing, but teams repeating is an even smaller percentage, having happened only once over that time span.
My point was teams that lost, then came back to win, was more common than teams winning back to back. That suggests the team that won it is more likely to have a hangover year than the team that lost.
Brodie… not counting but it was 0-3 they came back on Yankees from… 1-3 was Cleveland in 07…
Your right it was 0-3 iirc wasn’t that the first time any team came back from 0-3 in any sport (nhl, mlb, and nba)
JM
“I didn’t cherry-pick teams. I cited examples from the past 10 years or so. It was not a hand-picked data set. The data set was the recent past. And within that data set I cited multiple examples to support my opinion.”
Just one stats 101 class. Just one.
Only time in MLB… I believe a couple times maybe more in each of NHL and nba…
The Yankees without nearly as much conviction as I wish I had
Would it change the calculus if I told you that Stanton is able to open a bag of Doritos now?
He could just switch to Pringles.
YBC – But can he slap Lexy’s butt yet?
It’s hard to have much conviction when any team could win it. The Yanks are as good a guess as any, and better than some others.
3% think the Rays are going to win? I’m a Rays fan and I just have to ask – What are you guys smoking???
mp – They think Caminero is gonna pull a Bugs Bunny and play every position. LOL
Well if they’re from Florida they’re smoking either medical MJ or meth. Either way, I applaud their drug-fueled enthusiasm.
Most folks are voting their team. I’m just lucky my team is in the running as a legit answer.
I’m a Red Sox fan and picked the jays, because they won it last year and have improved more then any other team
If you think most of the people on this site are Canadian, I have a subway line in Scarborough to sell you
I can’t see where I said that, you may have implied it I guess.
You can be obtuse if you choose.
And I would infer, you would imply.
Au contraire, mon ami
I held my nose and picked the blue jays.
lol right? I see ninety losses as a distinct possibility. It’s gonna be a rough one.
Maybe they believe in the pitching to keep runs down and JC to hit homers every other game? Lol.
The roster is not built to win the East. My personal pick is the Orioles but any one of the Jays, Sox, or Yankees could also have good seasons. It all depends on injuries I suppose.
@mp2891
I picked them because it seems like the rays have there best seasons when everyone says that there going to suck.
Maybe… But are you thinking of the national media and fans of other teams, or knowledgeable Rays fans? Most Rays fans are not expecting the playoffs, let alone an ALE title. Some believe the Rays can sneak into the playoffs as the last WC team, but that’s about it. Personally, I’m expecting the Rays to complete their rebuild this year by holding a fire sale at the deadline, on their way to a 70-80 win season.
Should be a battle royal all year. NL east too
Let’s go “NATION “ Replay of 2018!!!
As a Jays fan, I hope it’s the Jays obviously. I also recognize the baseball gods buried them in pixie dust last year. It’s going to be an interesting season.
Great thing about the AL East is any of the teams could win it. Injuries, streaks (hot and cold), and the baseball gods all combine to make it unpredictable — and really fun to watch.
Jays seem like the safest bet. But I would not be shocked if all three wild card spots were in the AL East.
I like the Red Sox. They have the best blend of youth and experience and the best depth.
This division is going to be so fun to watch this year but I got the Orioles barely edging out the Blue Jays for the top spot.
Lol
This has to be sarcasm lol
I like the way you think
As a Blue Jays fan I obviously want them to win it however I really enjoy Baltimore when they come to town too so I’d be happy to see the Orioles win it.
Anyone can win at this point. Teams on paper are one thing but you still have to play 162 games. Anything can and usually does happen.
The Yankees pitching staff is gonna pop off. They’ll hit enough and ride a deep and dominant staff to the division crown.
They can’t mop up on baltimore now that they have restocked with mlb players and not the waiver claims they saw in the 2nd half after the selloff. NY will be lucky to get to 87 wins. maybe wildcard territory.
Funny, I think the pitching staff is what might hold them back compared to the lineup. I don’t know if you could really feel confident in any of their starting options for a variety of reasons.
jd: They have 2 very high upside arms in AAA Lagrange and Rodriguez both ready to go Schlitter 2.0 when called up. Not sure what’s going on with Gil but that’s 4 young starters to pair with 3 high quality veteran starters. The pen has quality late game options, I’m confident they can figure out the squishy middle with the internal options.
I don’t think the offense is bad but they seem likely to suffer from the same issues from prior years. Too many K’s and not enough OBP guys sprinkled in the lineup.
Yeah I was more talking about the established guys opening the season on the team as well as Cole/Rodon. And obviously they all could be good, I just think they all have question marks to varying degrees.
jd: Fair enough. Reports on Cole hitting 97 already and Rodon both seem positive. No one knows obviously so looking forward to an exciting season and not freezing my balls off any more. This winter hit like a Siberian one here in West Jersey.
As a Yankees fan, the Red Sox will win the division.
This division will be a dog fight from start to finish
Here’s my prediction
Red Sox 92-70
Orioles 90-72 WC
Blue Jays 89-73 WC
Yankees 86-76
Rays 80-82
The only team that has virtually no chance of winning the ALE is Tampa. The Orioles seem like they have an outside chance. Between the Sox, Yanks and Jays it’s a toss up, largely injury dependent. So I voted for my team because I’m a homer.
My money is on the Jays, but very narrowly. Orioles could be surprising too.
I would vote for the Red Sox or the Yankees…. but Both Cora and Boone will find a way to blow 10 games that should be wins by the typical shoddy use of their respective Bull Pens and Cora’s case, his platooning and everyday changing lineup, because he is so much smarter than everyone else…. sarcasm…
And Cora doesn’t have the trash cans anymore, either.
PECOTA 3/19/26
Toronto 89-73
New York 89-73
Boston 83-79
Baltimore 83-79
Tampa Bay 82-80
Yep, this division is at least a two-way tossup. Unfortunately not a choice in the poll.
PECOTA had Baltimore winning the AL East last year, KC winning the AL Central and Texas winning the AL West.
Actually that model at the start of last season had the Orioles, Yankees and Jays in a statistical three-way tie for the ALE, the Twins with a few game margin over the Royals in the ALC; and the Rangers, Astros and Mariners in a statistical tie for the ALW.
web.archive.org/web/20250324005736/https://www.bas…
Fangraphs 3/19/26
New York 86-76
Toronto 85-77
Boston 85-77
Baltimore 83-79
Tampa Bay 80-82
BetMGM Win Totals 3/17/26
New York 90.5
Toronto 88.5
Boston 87.5
Baltimore 85.5
Tampa Bay 77.5
I favor this estimate
I’ll take the over on all of those except New York
Take the over. The Yankees won 94 games without Gerrit Cole last season.
I’m going to go with the Yankees. Blue Jays dealing with some starting pitching issues and it may cost them some wins early on. I like the Yankees roster but it could very much be the Red Sox or Blue Jays. I feel the Orioles are a Wild Card team and the Rays are mediocre.
I predict they will finish in this order:
Team with healthiest pitching
Team w 2nd healthiest pitching
Team w 3td. ”
W 4th ”
Rays
Yop 4:in playoffs, way ahead of Hou Tx Cle Kc
Gotta give you points for that brother, you made me laugh
I think the differences between all the non-Rays teams are small enough that they could plausibly finish in any order. The Rays, however, will probably not be all that good. They’ll probably do something like trade Yandy Diaz for a guy in A ball who will be starting games for them in the majors by 2028.
The Yankees will win the AL East as long as they don’t fall too far behind early. They have the best lineup in the division and will have the best rotation once Rodon and Cole are back. The bullpen might have some issues but they’ll have plenty of internal options as the season goes on and relievers are always available at the deadline.
They also have Jasson Dominguez in LF.
And he will never not be funny…
Dominguez is going to open the year at AAA. Cody Bellinger is the LF
Thanks….thats a bit disappointing, though. Bellinger is good.
I can see the Yankees 3/4. A repeat of last year is unlikely, and the decline could be meaningful.
Do you believe in Orioles magic?
I don’t know.
As a Yanks fan its hard for me to pick them. Every team but the Rays made significant improvements while the Yanks remain the exact same for the most part. I think its Torontos division to lose
But it’s also a trade deadline game. The Yankees have the prospects to trade if they need to.
yeahhh the last few trade deadlines have been very underwhelming and its not like the other teams wont be buyers either.
Heart says Orioles
Head says Blue Jays
But I’ll be happy if anyone but the Yankees or BoSox get it.
Toronto will probably be the only 95 win club in the AL, with the possible exception of Detroit if they don’t choke again. Rest of the east are 82-88 win teams, should be 4 teams making the playoffs if things go right. Detroit and Seattle should win their divisions and 4 eastern division teams will fill it out. Once there it’s anyone’s guess which team will win the league.
Fangraphs’ playoff odds
Yankees 31%
Blue Jays 23%
Red Sox 22%
Orioles 17%
Rays 7%
fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/div
Adds up to 100%, that is the win division odds. Make playoffs offs has to be 3x+ higher.
“Poll: Who Will Win The AL East?”
Blue Jays fan here. I do believe it’s between us and the Yankees (voted Yankees), but it will hinge on Cole.
If you have a team in the AL East, like I do, then you’re not totally off your rocker to pick them to win it.
Go Sox!