It's commonplace for at least one postseason hopeful to run into unexpected struggles early in the season. In the past, we've seen World Series aspirants and Wild Card hopefuls alike shoot themselves in the foot with sloppy April sequences that jeopardize their visions of October baseball. In some instances -- the 2022 Phillies, the 2024 Mets and, most notably, the 2019 Nationals -- teams are able to rally and make good on those playoff goals. For those 2019 Nats, they went so far as to win the whole thing. Nary a baseball fan in D.C. will ever forget the significance of the 19-31 record they faced roughly one-third of the way through the season.
More commonly, however, a disappointing April can prove to be a backbreaker. Fans need only look as far back as the 2025 Orioles to see a would-be contender whose awful early performance sunk their season before it ever had a chance to get going in earnest. The Orioles wrapped up April with a 12-18 record. By the midway mark of May, they were 15-27 -- buried by nine and a half games in the American League East and with their postseason hopes all but dashed.
There have been plenty of oddities so far in the 2026 season. Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery are the first pair of teammates in MLB history with active streaks of homers in four or more consecutive games. (Oh, and Miguel Vargas has gone deep in three straight.) We're about one-sixth of the way through the season and Mason Miller has fanned a superhuman 71% of his opponents through 11 1/3 innings. Tigers phenom Kevin McGonigle, who skipped Triple-A entirely and broke camp as a 21-year-old, ranks fourth in the majors in Baseball-Reference WAR or fifth in FanGraphs WAR, if you prefer.
But the strangest development of the 2026 doesn't focus on any one player's individual efforts. To see the most bizarre facet of the season's first month requires a step back and a more macro look at the league as a whole.
Entering play Thursday, the four worst teams in baseball weren't the Rockies, Nationals, Twins or any other widely expected cellar dweller. Instead, the bottom-four records belong to the Royals, Phillies, Mets and Red Sox -- four clubs that entered the season with clear designs on contending. Fifth-worst are the White Sox -- not terribly surprising -- followed by the sixth-worst Astros. One game up in the standings are the Blue Jays and Mariners, last year's ALCS opponents.
In any given year, seeing one or two of these clubs faceplant out of the gate wouldn't be all that remarkable. Teams fall short of expectations all the time -- often well short. But to see seven clubs who entered 2026 as win-now teams populate bottom-10 spots in the leaguewide standings with more than four weeks of the season in the books is fairly incredible.
Is the season lost for any of these clubs? Not quite yet, but the margin for error has all but eroded. For most of these clubs -- especially the bottom four -- it's going to take something close to .600 ball the rest of the way to end up in contention. Let's take a look at this year's most disappointing clubs at the season's one-month mark to see if there's a chance of a rebound and, if not, who they might have to begrudgingly listen on at this year's Aug. 3 trade deadline.
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I blame it all on the WBC. It really screwed up Spring Training for many of the hitters for sure. I read the hitters that participated in the WBC got about 50 less at-bats than they normally would get. Between the injuries that occurred during the WBC and screwing up the batters who participated, I’ve really grown a new loathing for that pointless tournament.
Wow!
Have it after the World Series. It will still be pointless but at least it’s not in the middle of spring training. Or maybe let’s have the Olympics as the athletes are trying to get in shape. Yumpin yimmenies.
“I blame it all”….So playing baseball now ruins baseball teams? I’m purposely being harsh because that answer is overly simplistic.
If it were that simple, all the teams that supplied players would be negatively affected. If more players were lost to major injuries(in WBC) I might agree.
Some teams provided more key players than others.
Out of every team I’d say the Mariners are the most likely to get better, and I’m not saying that because I’m a fan. It seems like they’re due for some winning streaks soon.
Curious – There are three main factors in a team playing better after starting out with a deep slump:
1) If the team suffered several key injuries (like Baltimore & Toronto) it’s very likely they will win more when those injured players return.
2) Strength of schedule, if they start playing weaker teams they have a better chance of winning.
3) Pitching matchups, if you’re facing great starting pitching as the Red Sox did recently with Detroit and the NYY then it’s a lot harder to win. Red Sox will be facing Scherzer on Wednesday, I fully expect their bats to break out against him.
Yes. Happens every year. Next question.
It is so laughable that an article is written on April 24th that wonders if some teams are already eliminated from the post-season due to slow starts. And they want money to read this nonsense!
The Phillies are the farthest out of contention. They have to make up a whopping 6.5 games with 5 months to play.
What a joke!!!
It’s hilarious you’re criticizing the writing of an article you can’t have read.
He’s got a point, Boston is 3.5 out of a wild card.
lets – The writer clearly is zooming in on the teams because of how they look, not just because of their record.
You have to analyze injuries, strength of schedule, pitching matchups and even player management to project whether a team will play better or not.
We are a month into the season, it’s not too early to analyze.
The Phillies might get back into the race by the trade deadline, but they don’t have enough pitching to contend all season. Four weeks in and they’re already needing to call a fresh arm up from Lehigh Valley almost every day.
Well I know the Astros dug a hole that they can’t escape. If they even were contenders in the first place.
Astros – I’m a little surprised you are giving up already.
Just two years ago they were 12 under .500 in May, and still made the playoffs.
Thanks for your encouragement. I like your comments around here and stay well!
Astros – The feeling is mutual, I always enjoy your posts. Enjoy the weekend!
You too.
We’re only 4 weeks into the season. Hot teams are going to get cold. Cold teams are going to get hot.
No need to shame Mr. Met. Not his fault.
As you sow so shall you reap
Its baseball. Never say never, some teams go on absolute scorching tears over a month that can even out a sluggish April pretty easily.
The key is not to overreact, to focus on playing the best baseball they can, hopefully to aboit a .550 winning percentage u til they hit their hot streak. Do that, and any one of them have a chance.
GaSox – The thing that concerns me about our team, and Loumer has pointed this out a few times, is the Sox don’t have any impact players expected to return by the break or potential stars ready to come up from the minors (now that Tolle is here).
Unless you’re expecting Casas, Campbell, Crawford, Sandoval, Houck, Oviedo and Slaten to return and make an impact …. which I’m not. Notice the only two position players are Campbell & Casas, two longshots in terms of helping this season.
Also a bit concerning is the Sox haven’t had a touch schedule. They’ve played only 4 games in the division, losing all of them. Both Toronto and Baltimore have a ton of really good players scheduled to return soon. The Yanks are looking scary good, just imagine Rodon & Cole joining a rotation of Cam, Gil and Fried. Rice busting out is huge for them.
I’m not giving up yet, but it sure looks bleak. We really need 2025 Roman & Crochet back more than anything.
When I saw this article, I wondered which teams were involved because almost all the potential playoff teams are struggling.
I suspect that most teams need some more playing time to get a clearer view of what they have, speculation doesn’t count.
lee – Correct. Typically the first two months are for evaluations, the next two months are for making changes, and then the final two months you go with what you’ve got.